offshore windfarm analysisen.airc.org.tw/re/seminar/2009161495601.pdfapril offshore windfarm...
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Offshore Windfarm Analysis
Challenges and Opportunities
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Agenda
Growth in the Offshore Windfarm
Sector
Loss Overview
Loss Analysis
Catastrophe Modelling
1
2
3
4
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Section 1
Growth in the Global
Offshore Windfarm Sector
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Offshore Windfarm Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunities
Challenges
many of the same advantages as land-based
windfarms
Faster and steadier wind supply
Higher Energy demand in Coastal Areas
Less demand for land
Expensive and difficult to build and maintain
Technical threshold
Fishery environment and marine ecology
Safety at Sea – Difficult to manage the area
Lack of suitable offshore wind CAT model (vulnerability curves)
Lack of sector experience
Lack of local market insurance appetite
Source: https://www.americangeosciences.org/
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Global Market Overview
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1245248
15042042
1043
3668
1254
42474989 5194
3056 3304
4808
68507893
11561
12815
17062
22051
27213
2010-2019 Global Offshore Wind Turbine New and Cumulative Volume(MW)
New(MW)
Cumulative(MW)
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Global Market Overview
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
France
Norway
Spain
Ireland
US
Korea
Filand
Japan
Vietnam
Taiwan
Sweden
Netherlands
Belgium
Denmark
China
Germany
UK
2
2
5
25
30
44
71
85
99
128
191
1124
1557
1738
4906
7498
9710
2019 Global Offshore Wind Turbine Volume Distribution (MW)
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Growth in the European Market
828
11361371
1662
2080
2488
3230
3589
4149
4543
5047
20562946.2
3812.6
4995
6562
8045.3
11027
12631
15780
18499
22072
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cumulative No. of Turbines Cumulative No. of MW
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Growth in the European Market
199
308
235
293
418 408
754
338
560
409
502
577
882.7 866.35
1165.5
15671483.3
3018.5
1558
3148
2649
3627
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Installations Number of farms Installations No. of MW
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Mainland China
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FirstHalf
60 20360
590
1160
1650
400450670
1040
1630
2790
4440
4840
2013 - 2019 First Half China offshore windfarmsnew and cumulative installed capacity
(MW)
New Cumulative
Size (MW)Number of
Projects
Guangdong 6685 19
Jiangsu 1500 13
Fujian 1330 10
Zhejiang 400 6
Shandong 1400 6
Hebei 560 1
Liaoning 220 2
Guangxi 510 0
13th and 14th Five-Year Plan of Eight Provinces
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Windfarm Roadmap in Taiwan
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 2018
20192017
2020
2025
2030
July
Announcement on
reward measures
for wind power
offshore
demonstration
system
January
Demonstration of
windfarms: Ocean(Formosa
I)、Fuhai(IPP) and
Taipower(TPC)
November Ocean passed
the EIA
April
Offshore windfarm
(Formosa I) 2 wind
turbines transferred
to Taiwan’s 1st and
2nd offshore wind
turbines
August
Ocean power
plant (Formosa I)
obtains the
agreement of the
fishermen's
association
October
Offshore
windfarm(Formosa I)
22 wind turbines were
completed,
The first offshore
windfarm in Taiwan
January
Announcement of
the allocation
method of potential
site capacity
2025-2030
Stage 3:
Exploitation of
block
2017-2020
Stage 1:
Demonstration system
2020-2025
Stage 2: Exploitation of
potential site
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Projects with Targeted Grid Connections
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
US
D m
n (
Cu
mu
lati
ve)
Financial Close/Insurance Effective
Estimations of Capex and required CAT limits
Sum of Revenue (24 Months) -USD mn (USD 600,000 per MW)
Sum of Capex - USD mn (USD4mn per MW)
Sum of CAT Limit - USD mn
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Section 2
Global Loss Statistics
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Key Stakeholders of a Typical Offshore Windfarm Project
Equipment Supplier
Equipment suppliers
related to project
engineering, such as
offshore wind turbines,
submarine cables, and
electrical equipment of
offshore booster stations.
Construction
ContractorGeneral contractor or
subcontractor of the
project, such as wind
turbine installation,
submarine cable laying,
shore engineering, and
engineering
transportation
Liability
loss
Other Service
EntitiesIncluding prophase design
and survey entities, as
well as consulting
companies such as
engineering supervision,
insurance, and maritime
surveyors
Professional
liability loss
Owners and
Investors
The investor of a
construction project or an
independent legal entity
specially established by
the investor for the
construction project
Submarine
cable loss
Electrical
equipment loss
Wind turbine lossPersonnel loss
Material
loss
Third party
liability loss
Project main participant
Each project subject faces the challenge of its own risk of loss
Personnel lossPersonnel loss
Material
loss
Material
loss
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Loss Statistics
Construction and
Installation Phase
2009-2018
Total loss
EUR
500,000,000
Average loss
EUR
2,000,000
Operation Phase
20010-2018
Total loss
EUR
100,000,000
Average loss
EUR
1,500,000
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14
3
9
34
34
3
51
2
8
21
78
CAR claims 2013 - 2018
Blade
Buoy
Contractors Tools
Export Cable
Foundations
Gearbox
Inter-array Cable
Liability
Main Bearing
Nacelle
Substation
Transformer
Vessel
CAR Claims by Category
CAR
Blade 14
Buoy 3
Contractors Tools 9
Export Cable 34
Foundations 34
Gearbox 3
Inter-array Cable 51
Liability 2
Nacelle 8
Substation 21
Transformer 7
Vessel 8
Total 194
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OAR claims 2013 - 2018Blade
Buoy
Contractors Tools
Export Cable
Foundations
Gearbox
Inter-array Cable
Liability
Main Bearing
Nacelle
Substation
Transformer
Vessel
OAR Claims by Category
OAR
Blade 9
Buoy 2
Export Cable 21
Foundations 3
Gearbox 17
Inter-array Cable 7
Main Bearing 3
Nacelle 1
Substation 3
Transformer 8
Total 74
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Section 3
Loss Analysis
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Typical Layout of Offshore Windfarm Sites
Offshore windfarm
Offshore
windfarm
24~72kV
collection system
Offshore AC
Substation
Onshore AC
substation (with
reactive power
compensation)
AC grid
72~245kV
submarine cable
Offshore
windfarmOffshore AC
Substation
DC cable
transmission
Offshore HVDC
converter station Onshore HVDC
converter station
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Cause of Loss - Collision
The transport ship will be affected
by the wind to drift and collide with
nearby obstructions
Excessive wind increases the difficulty of
construction operations, and the wind
aggravates ship deflection, drift and rolling
motions
The structure of the wind turbine
affects VHF communication,
shipborne AIS equipment,
shipborne GPS system, and
shipborne magnetic compass
Poor visibility causes the ship
operator to make wrong judgments
on distance and position
Waves make construction
ships and transport ships
sway continuously, increase
ship sway amplitude and
reduce stability
The construction entity
did not arrange a guard
ship to guard
Drifting motion due to
the current
Incomplete navigation aid
signs of the wind turbine
tower
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Risk components for Collision
Sea IceSurf
Visibility
Typhoon
Ocean
Current
Constru-
ction
Conditions
Wind
Turbine
Equipment
Crew
incomp-
etence
Anchora
-ge and
distance
Ship
traffic
flow
Distance
between
route and
windfarm
Owner's
safety
management
Maritime
management
agency's
navigation
management
Construction
entity safety
management
Safety
Supervision
of
Supervision
Entity
Natural
Factors
Management
Factors
Windfarm
FactorsTraffic
Factors
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Direct Loss Composition
Material Cost Labor Cost Ship Cost
The direct cost
of demolition is
nearly
50,000,000
RMB
According to relevant laws and regulations, the damaged wind turbine
foundation for scrap treatment should be completely demolished
(including pile foundation); if the pile foundation cannot be completely
demolished, it should be cut below the seabed bottom
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Indirect Loss – BI Components
Production
schedule of basic
manufacturer is
almost saturated,
and the delivery
time is lagging
Engineering
ship needs to
wait for the
appropriate
weather
Engineering
ship repair at
the port
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Section 4
Catastrophe Modelling
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Offshore Wind farm in Taiwan
Wind farms obtained grid-connected qualifications before 2025
and their capacity
MW
Where to build offshore windfarm? When?
Demons
-tration
wind
farms
Potential
sites
Block
develop
-ment
is
expected
1GW
every
year
Ocean; 120
Ocean; 8
Sea Energy; 378
Li Wei, 350 Yun Neng, 348
Yun Neng; 360Taipower Phase
1; 110
Changhua SE; 605
Changhua SW, 337
Changhua SW, 295
Zhang Fang, 452
Zhang Fang, 100
Zhong Neng; 300
Taipower Phase 2, 300
Changhua NW, 583
Hailong 2; 232
Hailong 2; 300
West Island; 48
Hailong 3, 512
Note The selection method for the third stage of block
development has not been announced
Contour-50m
Yun Neng
Zhong Neng
West Island
Changhua SE
Changhua NW
Changhua SW
Taipower Phase 1
Taipower Phase 2
Demo windfarms
Potential site
Hailong 2
Zhang Fang
Hailong 3
Hai Neng
Ocean
Li Wei
Taichung Harbor
Miaoli Zhunan
Changhua Wang
Gong
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Earthquake
• Vulnerability curve of each building body
• Wind turbine – supporting structure
• Substation
• High-voltage converter station
• Submarine cable
• Business interruption
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Structural Foundation Types
Simple pile
foundation
Monopod
caisson
foundation
< 30 m
Gravity
foundationFour-foot
caisson
foundation
Asymmetrical
tripod caisson
foundation
Jacket caisson
foundation
30 ~ 60 m
Three-legged
caisson
foundation
Tripod
foundation
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Typhoon Modelling
• Vulnerability curve of each building body
• Wind turbine
• Substation
• High-voltage converter station
• Submarine cable
• Business interruption
• Cause of loss (disaster)
• Gale
• Precipitation
• Storm surge
• Coverage of existing typhoon models
• By Pass Storm
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Information Required
• Model Input
• Geographical location / Water depth
• Sum insured / Number of wind turbines
• Building type / height / building age
• Design information
• Policy situation
• Geological / Regional information
Taiwan offshore wind turbine supply chain
Gearbox
Cabin cover
Wheel hub
Leaf resin
Tower
Underwater foundation
Taishuo Heavy Industry
Advanced composite
Latitude
Formosa Plastics Lilang
Red leaves
Yongguan Energy
Yuan Runfeng
Taiwan Cheng Sheng
Sinosteel Machinery
Century Steel
Ming Rongyuan
Taishuo Heavy Industry
Sinosteel Machinery
Century Steel
Ming Rongyuan
Energetic
Waters Depth/m Technology Application
Shallow
water
0~30 Use fixed single pile foundation and gravity
foundation and proven technology based on
onshore system
Transition
depth zone
30~60 Use fixed jacket foundation or pile group
foundation to provide a stronger base for the
wind turbine; similar to shallow water, more
ships are required for deeper deployment
Deep water >60 The floating structure separated from the
base has better flexibility in site selection;
expands the scale of construction; reduces
offshore operations. Typical structures
include semi-submersible platform, Spar
platform and tension leg platform
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DataAssumptionMethodologyAdjustmentReferenceValidation
Business Owner
Insurer
AonAIR
Reinsurer
An on-going joint effort of all participants
• Model purpose
• Limitations of Information/data
• Design parameters
• Model approach
• Adjustment factor
• Engineering Insurance
• Seasonal disaster
• Rescue cost
• Result verification
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Prepared by company name / meeting
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