NewsFlash / 1 / September 2016

International market headlines • OPECannouncedtheplantocutproductiontoalevelof

32.5-33millionbarrelsperday(bpd)from33.47billion,bpdinAugust,theInternationalEnergyAgencysaid.“WehavehadaverylengthybuthistoricalmeetinginAlgiers,”saidQatarienergyministerandOPECmeetingpresident,MohammedbinSalehal-Sada,whoconfirmedtheplannedcut.Thereare“verypositivesignsinthemarket...neverthelessweneedtobringforwardrebalancingofthemarket,”hetoldapressconferenceaftertheinformaltalks.ThemeetingagreedtoestablishacommitteetodeterminehowthecutwillbesharedbetweenmembersandthequotaswillbediscussedatOPECtalksinViennaon30thofNovember.

• OPEChasraiseditsforecastforoildemandin2016to30thousandbpd–94.26mlnbpd,saidinitsSeptemberreportofthecartel.Thegrowthforecastforworldoildemandin2017maintainedatthelevelof1.15mlnbpd(upto95.41mlnbpd).ThedemandforOPECoilin2016willgrowby1.9mlnbpdandwillreach31.9mlnbpdin2017willincreaseto33mlnbpd.InJuly,accordingtothirdpartysources,membersoftheorganizationwereproducedby33.11mlnbpd.WhileOPEChasimprovedexpectationsforoilproductionoutsideofthecartelthisyear.Accordingtothenewassessmentitwillbereducedto790thousandbpdandwillbe56.13mlnb/dthatby90thousandbpdabovethepreviousforecast.

• OilproducersintheU.S.areprovingmoreresistanttolowprices,evenasglobalsupplyissettofallintoadeficitnextyear.TheEnergyInformationAdministrationincreaseditsdomesticoutputforecastfor2017to8.31mlnbpdfrom8.2mlnprojectedinJuly,accordingtoitsmonthlyShort-TermEnergyOutlookreleasedTuesday.Globaloilconsumptionwillexceedsupplybyanaverage170,000bpdnextyear,whichcompareswitha10,000barrelsurplusinJuly’soutlook.

• Globaloilmajorscuttheircapitalexpendituresby21%in2016,followinga19%cutinthepastyear,accordingtothemonthlyreportbyInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).

Source: Consensus Bloomberg, EIU

http://gfs.eiu.com/Article.aspx?articleType=cf&articleId=1243614708&secId=0

Brent Crude Oil Forecasts, $/barrel

Oil & GasNewsFlash

September2016

Brent, WTI and Urals spot prices

(1 August 2016 - 27 September 2016)

Source: EIA; www.topoilnews.com

NewsFlash / 2 / September 2016

International market headlines (continued)

• TheRussiangovernmenthasissuedthelicensefortheCentralOilandGasCompany–ajointventurebetweenLukoil(25%),Gazprom(25%)andKazakhstan’sKazMunaiGaz(50%)–todeveloptheCentralfield.ThefieldiswithintheRussiansectoroftheCaspianSea,butitsdevelopmentmustbeconductedwiththeparticipationofKazakhpartners.Thestructurehasbeenpassedforprospecting,explorationandproductionofhydrocarbonswithoutanauctionforaperiodof25years.Thegeologicalexplorationstagewilllastsevenyears.

• InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)hasloweredtheforecastofthegrowthoftheglobaldemandforoilin2016by100,000barrelsperday(downto1.3mlnbarrelsperday),CaspianEnergyNews(www.caspianenergy.net)reportswithreferencetothemonthlyreportoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).Meanwhile,theIEAhaspreservedtheglobaldemandgrowthforecastfor2017attherateof1.2mlnbarrelsperday,themonthlyreportofIEAsaid.Theagencyloweredtheforecastonglobaloildemandfor2017by200,000barrels–downto97.3mlnbarrelsperday.IEAalsoloweredtheforecastonglobaloildemandfor2016by200,000barrelsperday,(downto96.3mlnbarrelsperday).Itis1.3mlnbarrelshigherthanin2015.

• RussiaandIranareconsideringthepossibilityoforganizingswapshipmentsofgastonorthernIranthroughAzerbaijanandtheconstructionofaliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)plantinsouthernIran,RussianEnergyMinisterAlexanderNovaktoldreporters.“Inthegassector,todaywealsoconsideredthepromisingareaofswapsuppliesofgastonorthernIranthroughAzerbaijan,withthepossibilityofbuildingaliquefiednaturalgasplantinsouthernIran.Accordingly,withthereceiptoftheequivalentamountofliquefiedgas,whichwillgotomarketsinSoutheastAsia,wherethereistheprospect,asyouknow,ofhigherratesofgasconsumptiongrowth,”Novaksaid.“Inregardtotheoilsector,wetalkedtodayaboutthepossibilitiesofusinginfrastructure,implementingjointprojects,includingintheCaspianSeainIran,inAzerbaijan.Youknowthatourcompaniesarealsoparticipatingintheseprojects.Iraniswillingtoprepareaso-calledIranPetroleumContractsoonunderwhichRussiancompaniesandAzerbaijanicompaniescanparticipate,”Novaksaid.

• Itresultedina$60blnreductioninupstreamspendingfortwoyears.Whilethedropislargelyafunctionofsignificantcostdeflation,aslowdowninactivityanddelayinprojectsarealsofactors.

• Globaloiloutputwillexceeddemandatleastthroughthefirsthalfof2017,InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)said.“Withthepriceofoilatcurrentlevels,onewouldexpectsupplytocontractanddemandtogrowstrongly.However,theoppositenowseemstobehappening.Demandgrowthisslowingandsupplyisrising.Consequently,stocksofoilinOECDcountriesareswellingtolevelsneverseenbefore”,theIEAanalystssay.

• ApacheCorp.saidithasdiscoveredtheequivalentofatleasttwoblnbarrelsofoilinanewWestTexasfieldthathasthepromisetobecomeoneofthebiggestenergyfindsofthepastdecade.Thediscovery,whichApacheiscalling“AlpineHigh,”isinanareaneartheDavisMountainsthathadbeenoverlookedbygeologistsandengineers,whobelieveditwouldbeapoorfitforhydraulicfracturing.Itcouldbeworth$8blnbyconservativeestimates,oreven10timesmore,accordingtothecompany.Sharesrosebyasmuchas13%afterU.S.markets.Apachestartedacquiringmineralrightsintheareatwoyearsagoandsubsequentlydiscovereditspotential.Thecompanythenquietlywentaboutlockingupmorelandinthefield,believedtobeupto450,000acresoverall.Itspositionnowexceeds300,000acres,orroughlytwo-thirdsofthefield,andisabout20timesthesizeofManhattan.

• ThenumberofoperatingoilandgasdrillingrigsaroundtheworldhasincreasedinAugust,accordingtotheresultsofthethirdmonthinsuccession,theBakerHughesOilServiceCompanyreports.Lastmonth1,547rigswereoperatingasagainst1,481onesinJuly.However,theAugustfigureis679rigslessascomparedtoAugust2015.

NewsFlash / 3 / September 2016

International market headlines (continued)

• Fiveleadingoil-producingcountriesinAsiawillcutoilproductionin2017,theanalystsoftheBritishEnergyAspect(EA)predict.Accordingtotheanalysts,China,India,MalaysiaandVietnam,basedonresultsofthecurrentyear,willcutoilproductionby0.26mlnbpdupto6.5mlnbpd,andduringnextyeartheproductionwillbefurtherdecreasedby0.31mlnbpd.

• OPECraiseditsforecastofoilsuppliesfromnon-membercountriesin2017asnewfieldscomeonlineandU.S.shaledrillersprovemoreresilientthanexpectedtocheapcrude,pointingtoalargersurplusinthemarketnextyear.DemandforcrudefromtheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountrieswillaverage32.48mlnbpdday(bpd)in2017,OPECsaidinamonthlyreport.Thatisdown530,000bpdfromthepreviousforecast.OPECexpectsnon-OPECsupplytoriseby200,000bpdin2017,versusapreviouslyforecast150,000bpddecline.TherevisionismostlyduetoKashagan,OPECsaid,asthelong-delayedgiantfieldfinallystartsup.Ontopofthat,theforecastforthisyearwasrevisedupby180,000bpd.

• AnumberoflargeshaleoilproducersintheUSaresetforincreasinginvestmentsintoproductionascrudeoilpricesarerisingtomarchbacktoward$50-a-barrellevel,TheWallStreetJournalreports.DevonEnergyCorp.,PioneerNaturalResourcesCo.andothercompanieshavealreadytoldtheinvestorsthatthisautumntheywillboostspendingtodrillnewwells.

• ThefirstshipmentofUSshalegastobedeliveredtotheUKremainsanchoredintheFirthofForth,unabletodockbecauseofstrongwinds.ItarrivedamidafiercedebateaboutthefutureoffrackinginScotlandandtherestoftheUK.Thetanker,carrying27,500cubicmetresofethanefromUSshalefields,isboundfortheGrangemouthpetrochemicalsplantownedbyIneos.Ineossaidthegaswouldsecurethefutureoftheplant’sworkforce.

• In2015,wasdiscoveredonlyatenthoftheoilfromthelevelreconnaissancecompanyfindannuallysince1960.Thisyearthevolumeofoilfoundislikelytobeevenless,againstwhich,willincreaseconcernsaboutabilitytomeetfuturedemand.Whenoilpricesfellbymorethanhalf,oilcompanieshavereducedexpendituresongeological-exploringworksworktoaminimum.Asaresult,in2015,itproduced2.7blnbarrels–thelowestamountsince1947,accordingtoconsultingfirmWoodMackenzieLtd.Thisyearasattheendoflastmonthitproduced736mlnbarrelsofoil.

• RussiaandSaudiArabiahaveagreedonmeasures-jointorincooperationwithotheroilproducers-withtheaimofmaintainingstabilityonthecrudemarketandprovidingasustainableleveloflong-terminvestment.That’saccordingtoajointstatementsignedonSept.5byRussia’sEnergyMinisterAlexanderNovakandSaudiArabia’sMinisterofEnergy,IndustryandMineralResourcesKhalidAl-Falih.Inthestatement,theministersrecognized“thecurrentchallengesinthesupplysideoftheglobaloilmarket,includingmajorcontractionofcapitalinvestmentsinoilextractiononaglobalscale,particularlyinexploration,aswellasmassdeferralsofinvestmentprojects,whichmadethemarket,asawhole,morevolatileandthereforeunsustainabletobothproducersandconsumersinthelongterm,”aswellas“animperativetomitigateexcessivevolatilityharmfultoglobaleconomicstabilityandgrowth.”“Inthisregard,theministersnotedthatconstructivedialogueandclosecooperationamongmajoroilproducingcountriesiscrucialtooilmarketstabilitytoensuresustainablelevelsofinvestmentforthelongterm.

NewsFlash / 4 / September 2016

Kazakhstan market headlines

• Tengizchevroil(TCO)places10-yearEurobondsmaturinginAugust2026,asourceinbankingcirclestoldInterfax.Eurobondsareofferedat225basispointsoverU.S.Treasuries.Investorshaveofferedtobuy$4.2bln.JointbookrunnersforthedealareCiti,HSBCandJPMorgan.

• S&PGlobalRatingshasits‘BBB’long-termcorporatecreditratingtoKazakhstan-basedoilproducerTengizchevroilLLP(TCO).Theoutlookisnegative.S&Palsoassignedits‘kzAA+’KazakhstannationalscaleratingtoTCO.“Atthesametime,weassignedour‘BBB’issuecreditratingtothecompany’sproposed$1blnseniorsecuredbondtobeissuedbysubsidiaryTengizchevroilFinanceInternationalLtd.andguaranteedbyTCO,”S&Psaid.

• ThisyearKazakhstanGDPisexpectedtogrowthat0.2%,EurasianDevelopmentBanksaysinitsmacroeconomicoverview.TheGDPannualaveragegrowthrateduring2017–2018isprojectedtoreach1.5–1.7%,thereportsays.

• WholesalepriceofliquefiedpetroleumgastobeKZT23thousandpertonneinKazakhstan.InaccordancewiththeLawoftheRK“Ongasandgassupply”marginalpriceofliquefiedpetroleumgasinthedomesticmarketissetbytheMinistryofEnergyandoperatesthroughoutthecountry.“Inordertoensureastablesupplyofliquefiedpetroleumgasforthedomesticmarketofthecountry,theMinistryofEnergyhasapprovedthemarginalpriceofgasindomesticmarkettill30September2016,soitwillbe23106.45tenge/tonne,”theagencystates.

• FitchRatingssaysinanewreportthat,overthemediumterm,theKazakhstanoilandgassectorwillbedrivenbyongoingandplannedmegaprojectsinupstream,oil&gaspipelinesundergoingexpansion,andplanneddisposalsindownstream.In2025theprojectedshareofproductionfromKazakhstan’stop-threemegaoilprojects-Tengizchevroil(TCO),KashaganandKarachaganak-islikelytoexceed75%ofthecountry’stotal,upfrom50%in2015.Kazakhstan’sover-relianceonafewmegaoilfieldsmakesitmoreexposedtosingle-projectgeologicalandtechnicalrisksandoilpricevolatility,asillustratedbytheongoingmulti-blndollareffortstorestartKashagan.

• TengizchevroilLLPwillundertakeasignificantpartofthefinancingoftheFutureGrowthProject,KazakhEnergyMinisterKanatBozumbayevhassaid.TheTCOexpansionprojectvalueis$37bln.HesaidthattheprojectimplementationwillallowTCOtoproduceanother250mlntonnesofoiluntiltheendofthecontractterm(bytheendof2033).Buttheoilfieldwillremainactivebeyond2033andthevolumeofpost-contractoilproductionwouldamountto420mlntonnes,-theministeradded.

• KazakhstanhasworseneditspositioninWEFCompetitivenessRankingpreparedbytheWorldEconomicForum(WEF).Kazakhstanfell11placesandhasbeenranked53rd.

• AsianDevelopmentBankdowngradedKazakhstanGDPgrowthforecastfrom0.7%to0.4%in2016.GDPgrowthforecastwillremainat1%in2017.Inflationforecastfor2016hasbeenincreasedfrom12.6%to13.5%.KazakhGovernmentprojectstheGDPgrowthof0.5%andinflationrateof8%thisyear.

• TheWorldBankforecastsslowrecoveryofKazakhstaneconomy,thebank’sreportcalled“Kazakhstan:ALongRoadtoRecovery,”publishedonJuly22said.Underthebaselinescenario,GDPgrowthisexpectedtoremainnearzeroin2016,beforerisingto1.9percentin2017and3.7percentin2018,asproductioncommencesattheKashaganoilfield,globaloilpricesrebound,renewedconsumerandinvestorconfidencesupportstherecoveryofthenon-oilsectors,andinflationeasestoanaverageof6-8percentperyear.Meanwhile,bothfiscalandexternalconditionsareexpectedtoimprove,trend.azreports.

• Kazakhstanproduced32.975mlntonnesofcrudeoiland5.815mlntonnesofgascondensateinJanuary-June2016,down2.4%and9.9%,respectively,fromthesameperiodlastyear,theStateStatisticsCommitteesaid.Kazakhstanproduced10.083blncubicmetersofnaturalgasinagaseousform,down6.3%.OutputofassociatedpetroleumgasinJanuary-June2016cameto12.658blncubicmeters,3.5%upfromH12015.

• TheBoardofDirectorsofKazMunayGasExplorationProductionJSC(KMGEP)hasadoptedthecompany’sInnovativeandTechnologicalDevelopmentProgramfor2016-2020,thecompany’sPressServicesaid.TheProgrammehasbeendevelopedamidtheglobaleconomiccrisisaspartofthesetofmeasuresaimedatmitigationofadverseeconomicimpactintheformofcutdowninspending.AsapartoftheadoptedProgramthecompanyisplanningtocarryoutatechnologyauditthatwillfocusmainlyonreviewandassessmentofspecificinnovationproposalsandorganisationalmeasuresthatwillenableKMGEPtousecrisistoimproveefficiencyandperformanceofitsassets.

NewsFlash / 5 / September 2016

Kazakhstan market headlines (continued)

• AnewonlinedatabaseofgoodsandservicesuppliesfortheoilandgasindustrywaslaunchedinKazakhstan,saidNiyazZhumat,theprojectmanagerattheUnionofOilServiceCompaniesofKazakhstan.“Alashisauniqueplatformforthemineralresourcecompaniesandsuppliers,includingKazakhsuppliers.TheservicecompaniesthatareregisteredinthedatabasewillhaveaccesstoprocurementprogramsofTengizchevroil(TCO),KarachaganakPetroleumOperatingB.V.(KPO)andNorthCaspianOperatingCompany(NCOC),”hetoldabriefinginAstana.ThedatabasewascreatedattheinitiativeoftheKazakhMinistryofEnergywiththedirectinvolvementofthelargeoilandgascompanies.Currently,thedatabasecontains237domesticandsevenforeignservicecompanies.

• S&PGlobalRatingsaffirmedits‘BBB-/A-3’long-andshort-termforeignandlocalcurrencysovereigncreditratingsontheRepublicofKazakhstan.S&PalsoaffirmedtheKazakhstannationalscaleratingsat‘kzAA’.Theoutlookonthelong-termratingsisnegative.

• InJanuary-June2016,KazMunayGasExplorationProductionJSC(KMGEP)produced6.78mlntonnesofoil(246thsdbpd),whichis0.7%lessascomparedtothesameperiodof2015,thecompanyreported.ThisamountincludestheinterestsinJVKazGerMunai(KGM),Karazhanbasmunai(CCEL)andPetroKazakhstanInc.OzenmunaigasJSC(OMG)produced2,779mlntonnes(112thsdbpd),whichis2%morethaninJanuary-June2015.EmbaMunaiGasJSC(EMG)produced1,407mlntonnes(57thsdbpd),whichis2%morethanduringthesameperiodlastyear.TotallyOMGandEMGproducedup4,186mlntonnes(169thsdbpd),whichis2%morethanduringJanuary-Junelastyear.

• TheoilcompanyTengizChevroil(TSO)produced14.4mlntonnessofcrudeoil(114.8mlnbpd)duringJanuary-June2016,theTCO’PressServicereported.Duringthesameperiodof2015,TCOproduced14.07mlntonnessofcrudeoil.Thus,oiloutputincreasedby2.3%inthereportingperiod.Inthefirsthalfofthecurrentyear,TCOrealised673thsdtonnessofliquefiedgasand3.67blncubicmetresofdrygas(duringJanuary-Junelastyear,677thsdtonnesand3.64blncubicmetres,respectively).

• KazakhstanGDPgrowthattheendof2016willstandat0.5%,theMinsterofNationalEconomyKuandykBishimbayevsaid.AsreportedbyKuandykBishimbayev,inAugustlastyear,Kazakhstaneconomygrewby0.1%.Accordingtotheresultsfor8monthsofcurrentyear,GDPhasgrownby0.3%.Kazakhstanexpects1.9%GDPgrowthin2017.Kazakhstan’sGDPgrowthhit0.1%in1Hof2016.

• InternationalratingagencyS&PGlobalRatingsaffirmedKazakhstan’slong-termforeign-andlocal-currencyratings,withnegativeoutlook,atBBB-,theagencystated.Theagencyaffirmedat“A-3”Kazakhstanshort-termratings.S&Palsoaffirmedat“kzAA”Kazakhstan’sratingaccordingtothenationalscale.

• JSCKazTransOilpumped21.923mlntonnesofoilthroughitspipelinesinJanuary-June2016oradecreaseof10%yearoveryear,thecompanysaysinapressrelease.Consolidatedoiltransportationinthereportingperiodtotaled28.278mlntonnesoradecreaseof10%yearoveryear.InJanuary-June2016thevolumeofoiltransportedbyJSCKazTransOilaloneamountedto17.836blntonne-kmordown3%yearoveryear,theconsolidatedvolumeoftransportationbyKazTransOilgroupcameto21.684blntonne-kmoradecreaseof5%,respectively.

• JSCOzenmunaigas(OMG),asubsidiaryofKMGEP,hasreceivedapprovalofitsapplicationforatemporaryreducedrateofMineralExtractionTax(MET)fortheUzenandKaramandybasfieldsinMangystauregion.“ThereducedMETrateissetat9.0%(comparedto13.0%in2015)forthewholeof2016ontheconditionthatin2016UzenandKaramandybasfieldsrecordlossesundertaxaccounting,”KMGEPsaid.“Themaximumbenefitavailableisexpectedtobeapproximately17blntengein2016,whichmayultimatelybereducedinaccordancewithcurrentlegislationshouldthefieldshavetaxableprofitfor2016,”thecompanysaid.

• Kazakhstanwillcalculateoilexportpricesusingauniformmethodology,KanatDospanov,DeputyChiefoftheSpecialisedDepartmentoftheStateRevenuesCommitteeundertheMinistryofFinance,said.Accordingtothemethodology,thepricewillbecalculatedbasedonglobalcrudeoilprices,termsofsupply,costsoftransportationtotheglobalmarkets,insurancecosts,andinspectioncosts.AccordingtoDospanov,thecompaniesincludedinthestructureoftheNationalCompany“KazMunayGas”,thecompanyVitolaswellastheReutersandArgusagenciestookpartindevelopmentofthemethodology.TheStateRevenuesCommitteebelievesthatthenoveltywillcontributetoincreasingoftaxrevenue,however,towhatextent,itishardtosaysofar.

• KazakhGovernmenthasdevelopeddraftamendmentstothelawonthestatebudgetfor2016-2018,whichwillintroducechangestocurrentbudget.“Averageannualoilpricewasraisedfrom$30to$35perbarrel.AverageannualUSdollarexchangerateremainedunchangedatKZT360perUSD1”,K.BishimbayevsaidattheGovernmentsession,presentingaproposedbudget.Oiloutputforecastwasrevisedupwardfrom74mlntonnesto75.5mlntonnesfor2016duetotheriseofaverageannualoilpriceandexpectedlaunchofKashagan”,theMinisterofNationalEconomyadded.

NewsFlash / 6 / September 2016

Distribution of proved natural gas reserves in 1995, 2005 and 2015

Other renewables consumption, 2015

Biofuels production, 2015

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2016

Top 10 countries by hydroelectricity consumption, 2015

Top 10 natural gas reserves countries, 2015

Top 10 natural gas production countries* Top 10 natural gas consumption countries

*Excludes gas flared or recycled. Includes natural gas produced for Gas-to-Liquids transformation.

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