Edmonton Police Service: R15-237 - Oil Prices vs. Crime Rates

Request: R15-237 - Oil Prices vs. Crime Rates - Rod Knecht

Data as of October 1, 2015 23:59 for the time period January 1, 2013 - August 31, 2015

Time

Eight Crime

Occurrence

Indicators (1)

WTI Oil Prices

(U.S $)(2)

Edmonton CMA

Unemployment

Rate(3)

Property

Occurrence

Indicators(1)

Property

Occurrence

Indicators

divided by

10 (4)

Eight Crime

Occurrence

Indicators

divided by

10 (4)

Edmonton CMA

Unemployment

Rate multiplied

by 10(4)

Jan-2013 1692 94.76 4.3 1118 111.8 169.2 43

Feb-2013 1471 95.31 4.5 975 97.5 147.1 45

Mar-2013 1552 92.94 4.5 986 98.6 155.2 45

Apr-2013 1706 92.02 4.6 1160 116 170.6 46

May-2013 2004 94.51 4.5 1374 137.4 200.4 45

Jun-2013 1976 95.77 4.5 1371 137.1 197.6 45

Jul-2013 2196 104.67 4.7 1553 155.3 219.6 47

Aug-2013 2079 106.57 5.2 1432 143.2 207.9 52

Sep-2013 1932 106.29 5.2 1331 133.1 193.2 52

Oct-2013 1842 100.54 5.3 1268 126.8 184.2 53

Nov-2013 1544 93.86 5.2 988 98.8 154.4 52

Dec-2013 1525 97.63 5.5 994 99.4 152.5 55

Jan-2014 1660 94.62 5.4 1059 105.9 166 54

Feb-2014 1396 100.82 4.9 902 90.2 139.6 49

Mar-2014 1546 100.8 4.7 984 98.4 154.6 47

Apr-2014 1756 102.07 4.9 1227 122.7 175.6 49

May-2014 1916 102.18 5.4 1280 128 191.6 54

Jun-2014 1991 105.79 5.6 1380 138 199.1 56

Jul-2014 2204 103.59 5.4 1572 157.2 220.4 54

Aug-2014 2188 96.54 5.3 1583 158.3 218.8 53

Sep-2014 2124 93.21 5.4 1521 152.1 212.4 54

Oct-2014 2114 84.4 5.3 1452 145.2 211.4 53

Nov-2014 1931 75.79 5.2 1308 130.8 193.1 52

Dec-2014 1883 59.29 4.8 1266 126.6 188.3 48

Jan-2015 2019 47.22 4.8 1356 135.6 201.9 48

Feb-2015 1751 50.58 4.8 1169 116.9 175.1 48

Mar-2015 2040 47.82 5.3 1363 136.3 204 53

Apr-2015 2009 54.45 5.8 1349 134.9 200.9 58

May-2015 2217 59.27 6.3 1558 155.8 221.7 63

Jun-2015 2353 59.82 5.9 1696 169.6 235.3 59

Jul-2015 2321 50.9 5.7 1628 162.8 232.1 57

Aug-2015 2324 42.87 5.5 1659 165.9 232.4 55

Source:

Eight Crime Indicators:

(2) WTI Oil Prices sourced from U.S Energy Information Association website

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RWTC&f=M

Table 1: Eight Crime Occurrence Indicators, Property Occurrence Indicators, WTI Oil Prices and Unemployment Rates, 2013-

2015 YTD (as of August 31)

(1) Crime Indicators sourced from Cognos Query Report, IBM Cognos Query Studio - R15-237 - Oil Prices vs. Crime - Rod Knecht, Data as of

2015 October 1

a) Include Reportable Occurrences. The occurrence is reportable when a police report has been submitted.

b) Exclude occurrences with "unfounded" clearance status. An occurrence is “unfounded” if after a police investigation, it is

concluded that no violation of the law took place nor was attempted (PRCU Manual, 2014)

c) Eight Crime Indicators contain four violent indicators: Assault, Robbery, Homicide, Sexual Assault and four property

indicators: Break and Enter, Theft of Vehicle, Theft from Vehicle and Theft over $5000.

R15-237- Oil Prices vs. Crime Rates - Rod Knecht - Results Page 1 of 4

(3) Unemployment Rate sourced from Statistics Canada, Table 282-0135 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by census metropolitan area

based on 2011 Census boundaries, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, monthly(1,2,3) (4) These measures were either divided by 10 or multiplied by 10 to show their relative comparison in a chart.

R15-237- Oil Prices vs. Crime Rates - Rod Knecht - Results Page 2 of 4

Results:Chart 1:

Chart 2:

1) There has been a decreasing trend in oil prices since July 2014.

Chart 3:

1) There is an upward trend of the eight crime occurrence indicators and property indicators since October 2014.2) The eight crime occurrence indicators have a seasonality where crime increases in summer months and decreases in

winter months.

1) The Edmonton CMA unemployment rate reached 6.3% in May 2015. This was the highest unemployment rate in

Edmonton CMA since January 2013.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan

-20

13

Feb

-20

13

Mar

-20

13

Ap

r-2

01

3

May

-20

13

Jun

-20

13

Jul-

20

13

Au

g-2

01

3

Sep

-20

13

Oct

-20

13

No

v-2

01

3

De

c-2

01

3

Jan

-20

14

Feb

-20

14

Mar

-20

14

Ap

r-2

01

4

May

-20

14

Jun

-20

14

Jul-

20

14

Au

g-2

01

4

Sep

-20

14

Oct

-20

14

No

v-2

01

4

De

c-2

01

4

Jan

-20

15

Feb

-20

15

Mar

-20

15

Ap

r-2

01

5

May

-20

15

Jun

-20

15

Jul-

20

15

Au

g-2

01

5

# o

f O

ccu

rre

nce

s

Chart 1: Eight Crime Indicators and Property Indicators 2013-2015 YTD

Eight Crime Occurrence Indicators (1) Property Occurrence Indicators(1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

-20

13

Feb

-20

13

Mar

-20

13

Ap

r-2

01

3

May

-20

13

Jun

-20

13

Jul-

20

13

Au

g-2

01

3

Sep

-20

13

Oct

-20

13

No

v-2

01

3

De

c-2

01

3

Jan

-20

14

Feb

-20

14

Mar

-20

14

Ap

r-2

01

4

May

-20

14

Jun

-20

14

Jul-

20

14

Au

g-2

01

4

Sep

-20

14

Oct

-20

14

No

v-2

01

4

De

c-2

01

4

Jan

-20

15

Feb

-20

15

Mar

-20

15

Ap

r-2

01

5

May

-20

15

Jun

-20

15

Jul-

20

15

Au

g-2

01

5

Chart 2: WTI Monthly Oil Prices 2013-2015 YTD

WTI Oil Prices (U.S $)(2)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan

-20

13

Feb

-20

13

Mar

-20

13

Ap

r-2

01

3

May

-20

13

Jun

-20

13

Jul-

20

13

Au

g-2

01

3

Sep

-20

13

Oct

-20

13

No

v-2

01

3

De

c-2

01

3

Jan

-20

14

Feb

-20

14

Mar

-20

14

Ap

r-2

01

4

May

-20

14

Jun

-20

14

Jul-

20

14

Au

g-2

01

4

Sep

-20

14

Oct

-20

14

No

v-2

01

4

De

c-2

01

4

Jan

-20

15

Feb

-20

15

Mar

-20

15

Ap

r-2

01

5

May

-20

15

Jun

-20

15

Jul-

20

15

Au

g-2

01

5

Chart 3: Edmonton CMA Unemployment Rate 2013-2015 YTD

Edmonton CMA Unemployment Rate(3)

R15-237- Oil Prices vs. Crime Rates - Rod Knecht - Results Page 3 of 4

Chart 4:

(5)Chart 4: Unemployment Rate multiplied by 10 and Crime Rates divided by 10 in order for comparison purposes

2) The eight crime occurrence indicators have a seasonality where crime increases in summer months and decreases in

winter months.

3) In addition to the consistent month by month increases in the eight crime occurrence indicators since October 2014, the

2015 seasonal low point and seasonal high point are both higher than in previous years.

1) In the period of decreasing oil prices and increasing unemployment (the unemployment rate in May 2015 reached

6.3%), the eight crime occurrence indicators have increased each month since October 2014.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan

-20

13

Feb

-20

13

Mar

-20

13

Ap

r-2

01

3

May

-20

13

Jun

-20

13

Jul-

20

13

Au

g-2

01

3

Sep

-20

13

Oct

-20

13

No

v-2

01

3

De

c-2

01

3

Jan

-20

14

Feb

-20

14

Mar

-20

14

Ap

r-2

01

4

May

-20

14

Jun

-20

14

Jul-

20

14

Au

g-2

01

4

Sep

-20

14

Oct

-20

14

No

v-2

01

4

De

c-2

01

4

Jan

-20

15

Feb

-20

15

Mar

-20

15

Ap

r-2

01

5

May

-20

15

Jun

-20

15

Jul-

20

15

Au

g-2

01

5

Chart 4: Oil Prices, Unemployment Rate and Crime Rates 2013-2015 YTD (5)

WTI Oil Prices (U.S $)(2) Eight Crime Occurrence Indicators divided by 10(4)

Edmonton CMA Unemployment Rate multiplied by 10(4)

Seasonal Low Seasonal Low

Seasonal High

Seasonal Low

Seasonal High

Seasonal High

R15-237- Oil Prices vs. Crime Rates - Rod Knecht - Results Page 4 of 4