oil search mena...65 oil search in the mena region ¬osh commenced programme of measured...
TRANSCRIPT
65
Oil Search in the MENA Region
OSH commenced programme of measured diversification into the Middle East/North African region in 2000Focus is on proven petroleum systems with:
Existing infrastructureLow finding & development costsLow well costs to complement PNG activityProduction & deliverability reliability, rapid first oil
OSH has established key strategic relationshipsSpecific National Oil Companies
Manage regional risk issuesSolid Opportunity flowJoint Operating arrangements
Strong cultural & political relationsExcellent databasesExisting long term relationships
Balance of Operated & Non-Operated areasLow cost entry
Seeking to build material positions
66
Why MENA?
Oil Search commenced programme of measured international diversification in 2000Middle East/North Africa (MENA) selected as focus areaRapidly built a material exploration portfolio in areas with proven petroleum systems Oil Search Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) have attractive fiscal termsMENA has multiple near term drilling opportunities
Cost of typical onshore exploration well ~US$2–6 millionTarget sizes range from 5–100mmbblsLow capital and opex (typically <US$3/bbl and US$4/bbl respectively) with short payback periods
Complements PNG high cost, higher reward prospectsAccess to producing infrastructure in key basins Moderate/high security risk, but manageable
67
Portfolio Build in Progress
In past 12 months, OSH has initiated: 2 drilling rig campaigns in Yemen – onshore and offshore
4 rigs in Egypt – 2 drilling and 2 workover
Further production operations with our quality HSES program embedded
Achieved significant drilling performance improvements in each campaign
Resolved challenging cultural issues in new areas
68
Portfolio Build in Progress
Technical challengesWe haven’t satisfied our exploration objectives
Score = 2 / 11 dry holes in Yemen
= 5 / 5 in Egypt, ERQ & 2nd’y targets in Egypt Area A
= 1 / 1 in Kurdistan
Higher risk end of the portfolio has been drilled in Yemen
So far frontier areas – B15, B35, Bina Bawi
Moderate risk basinal plays with 3D data – B43, B49, ERQ
Mature plays in structurally complex areas with limited ability to de-risk in Area A
Performance over a three year period will be the better judge, cannot achieve portfolio evaluation within calendar year
69
Portfolio Build in Progress
Portfolio ManagementProgramme de-risking occurred prior to much of 2007 program
3D seismic available to technically de-risk many prospects –B15, B43, B49, ERQ
Block 3 acquiring 3D, farmed down to 40%
US$22m exposures reducedB3, B15 and B35 farmed down for carries
Farmed in to B49Acquired 42% from CCC in 2007Farmed out 26% in north area to Virgin for full carry on 2 wellsRetained 42% in southern area with option to increase
Technical de-risking still ongoingProduction testing as an effective appraisal tool
2D/3D seismic being acquired
Area A farm-out ongoing
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Portfolio Build in Progress
Portfolio is the envy of numerous competitorsBalance of higher/lower risk with high/lower reward
Operational skills are highly valued
Creates opportunities that OSH can capitalise on
Materiality still not there
Lacks a solid production element
Existing fields immaterial
Discovery & rapid development required
Acquisitions are still being reviewed
Further portfolio optimisation will continue
… lack of production is causing significant P&L pressures due negative impact of higher effective tax rate
71
Egypt Area AProduction
Oil Search earns production above specified base production levelSince August, have been in ‘earning’ territory
2 month delay to the start of the development drilling programme, due to the unavailability of a suitable drilling rig
Ongoing workovers /recompletions required in mature fieldsAdditional development candidates under evaluation
Not in forecastNo reserves booked for Area A to dateEstimated 2008 net production of +150mstbo (after 30% farmout)
Jan-
07Apr
-07
Jul-0
7Oct
-07
Jan-
08Apr
-08
Jul-0
8Oct
-08
Jan-
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-09
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-09
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1,000
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3,000
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5,000
6,000
Oil
Pro
du
ctio
n (
bo
pd
)
Development Wells
Work-overs
Gross Production
Net OSH
Baseline +500
72
Egypt ERQ Production
Early production from new discoveries awaits approval from EGPC and inauguration of new OpCo - PetroshardCritical reservoir deliverability information required to assist with further appraisal and development plansShahd-1 production will commence as early as Dec 2007 via trucking operationGhard-1 and Rana-1 production to follow soon after, also to be truckedField reserves to be certified by NSAEstimated 2008 net production of 185mstbo
East Ras Qattara
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Jan-
07Apr
-07
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7Oct
-07
Jan-
08Apr
-08
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-08
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09Apr
-09
Jul-0
9Oct
-09
Oil
Pro
du
ctio
n (
bo
pd
)
Gross Production
Net OSH
73
Yemen Nabrajah Production
Nabrajah-15
Nabrajah-16
Nab15
Nab16 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
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9,000
Jan-
07Apr
-07
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7Oct
-07
Jan-
08Apr
-08
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8Oct
-08
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9Oct
-09
Oil P
rod
uct
ion
(b
op
d)
Gross Production
Net OSH
Nabrajah gross production currently 6,650bopdNabrajah-15 well has proven a new terrace/compartment within the fieldCurrently drilling Nabrajah-16Simulation model being finalised to assess viability of future candidatesEstimated 2008 net production of 268mstbo
74
EgyptExploration
East Ras Qattara, Western Desert
49.5% equity; PSAOperator SiPetrolOngoing exploration programme in ERQ
Area ‘A’, Gulf of Suez4 development and 2 exploration concessionsOSH operator, 100% equity: PSA & ESAExploration scheduled to recommence in Area A in 4Q07
Mesaha Block 630% equityOperator Melrose
2007 OSH Egypt spend around US$40m
75
3 wells drilled to date3 discoveries at 4 stratigraphic levels
Development plans submitted for Shahd and Ghard. Production in 1Q 08No reserve additions booked to dateFurther 3D seismic acquired in 2007 and planned in 2008Rana :
Flowed 850 bbl/d from Kharita on small choke Test on 3 Bahariya zones to resume with w/o rig
Extensive prospect inventory Next wells :
Raheek ~ 8-12 mmbbl (COS = 35%)Salma ~ 100 mmbbl (COS = 15%)
East Ras Qattara“String of Pearls”
Rana-1Discovery
Ghard-1Discovery
Shahd-1Discovery
Raheek-1 currently drilling, to be followed
by Salma Prospect
5km
East Ras Qattara, Western Desert49.5% equity; PSAOperator SiPetrol
76
East Ras QattaraExploration Success and Prospects
and Leads
76
Well Name OSLOil Inventory EquityShahd Discovery Shahd 1 0.495Ghard Discovery Ghard 1 0.495South Shahd 0.495Fahd (SE Shahd) Shahd SE 1 0.495Riffy Raheek 1 0.495Rana (Prospect K) Rana 1 0.495Mesk Mesk 1 0.495SE Mesk SE Mesk 1 0.495Rana NE Rana NE 1 0.495Rana SE Rana SE 1 0.495Dia'a Marwa 1 0.495Heba Rehan 1 0.495Salma (Prospect G) Salma 1 0.495Yara (Prospect F) Yara 1 0.495Yara NW Yara NW 1 0.495Prospect E (J Milha Updip) 0.495Prospect H 0.495Prospect I 0.495Prospect J 0.495Lead 1 0.495Lead 2 0.495Lead 3 0.495Lead 4 0.495Strat Lead North 0.495Strat Lead Central 0.495Strat Lead South 0.495Gas InventoryAlam El Boueib Gas 0.495
Remaining Prospects25+ Remaining P&L2x 3D surveys acquired
Raheek-1Drilling
Rana-18mmstbo 2P
Ghard-12.6mmstbo 2P
Shahd-16mmstbo 2PProduction to
commence 1Q 2008
25 + prospects now defined by seismicProbability of success >40% - first three wells are discoveries (100% success)2 new 3D surveys planned – commencing in December 07Mean field size 5-10mmbo with 4 prospects/leads >50mmboRig availability is challenging – 2 to 3 rigs required through 2008 and into 2009
77
East Ras QattaraDevelopment Plan
Currently developing a full potential development plan for ERQPotential peak gross production of 150-200 kboepdPotential gross reserves 300 mmboe+“String of pearls”exploration program –15-20 wellsFull potential development concept
Cluster development with central production facility Tied in to existing infrastructure north of the block180-200+ development wellsGross development cost of US$1b+
East Ras Qattara - Oil Search Production & Cost Profiles
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cap
ex /
Op
ex U
S$
MM
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
'00
0 b
oep
d (
6:1
)
Total Capex Total Opex Total Prodn. Rate
Northern Gas Development
Southern Large Cluster Development w/ single CPFNorthwestern Small Cluster Development
78
Egypt Area A Exploration
Proposed South Gharib-X1
Yusr-AyunAppraisal
Shukheir Bay
Onshore Propsect
Proposed West Zeit-X3
Coastal Leads
El Khalig Appraisal
Shukheir Appraisal
Three well exploration drilling program to commence in 4Q 2007
West Zeit-3South Garib-1Shukheir Bay Onshore-1
In the event of a discovery, rapid tie-in to nearby facilities
79
Participation in 11 exploration wells2 successes (Nab 13 & 15) & 9 dry holes to date (3xB49, 2xB15, 2xB35, 3xB43)
B49 – large residual columnsB15 – downgrade deeper areasB43 - disappointingB35 – proved working hydrocarbon system in block
4 successful wells: Block 432 on production2 completed
2 wells tested1 flowed 0.065 mmscfpd: Block 351 water: Block 49
Yemen: 2007 Drilling CampaignResults
80
Yemen Block 43
Block 43
Nabrajah field
Proposed Shaibah-1
400sqkm 3D Seismic Survey
Basement Structure Map
OSH 28.33%, non-Op (DNO)Interpretation of 3D dataset has identified multitude of in-fill and exploration targets on-trend with Nabrajah Oil FieldIntegrated study of the Nabrajah Naifa & Basement reservoirs ongoingJV considering plans to drill 2-3 exploration wells in Block 43 in 2008
N1
C10
C4-W
D2
C8
C7
Nabrajah Field
D3
C11
N3
N2
Qishn
Basement
Shallow
Deep
Shallow
Deep
81
Yemen Block 49
OSH 31.75% Non-Op(CCC, OSH Drilling Op)
2 additional Exploration wells planned for 4Q 2007 (OSH being fully carried)Ghobata-1 & Kasad-1 wells have residual oil column Significant oil & gas shows prove oil charge across the northeast margin of Block A number of large untested structures still flank the Shabwah Basin in Block 49
Mintaq-1:Oil & Gas shows in Kohlan/basement, Lam, & Qishn
Mature Sourcekitchen
Lead B
Lead C
Lead D
Lead E
Balharak-1:Minor Oil & gas shows
Hufayr-1:Oil & Gas shows in lower section of wellGas condensate discovery
Balharak South-1:Excellent Oil & gas Madbi/Basement tested oil & gasApprox 110bbls of oil recovered
West Ghobata
Lead F
Al Nokhailat-1
Kasad-1
Gohbata-1 Ghobata-1:Oil & gas shows
Kasad-1:Oil shows
82
Yemen Block 35
OSH 32.5%, OperatorAl Magrabah-1 flowed small quantity of gas & recovered 34 API oilProves working petroleum systemProspectivity established, requires further review, analysis, and de-risking
DST#1
DST#2
Al Magrabah-1 Test
83
OSH 35.0%, Operator6 Month licence extension granted, additional 12 month extensions requestedWell results to be integrated into review of remaining prospectivitySharmah-Ras Ghashwahdiscovery to be re-evaluated during licence extensionDeeper Jurassic / Basement targets under evaluation
Yemen Block 15
Block 15
Shuhayr-1 Prospect
165MMbbls
Sarar-1X Recovered 1700 litres 45° API oil from Cretaceous sands
Ras Ghashwah-1X Recovered 38° API oil from fractured Eocene limestone
Hami-1XHeavy oil &
bitumen
Sharmah-1XProduced 3045bopd 43°API oil from fractured
Eocene limestone
84
OSH 40%, OperatorPSA Ratified 7 June 2006OMV’s recent Habban-1 Basement discovery in Block S2 and YICOM’s West Ayadfields are on-trend to untested basement structures identified in Block 3Potential mean reserves range 20 - >100 mmbbls500 sqkm 3D seismic starting late 2007Subject to rig availability, OSH will seek to drill 1 well in Block 3 in 4Q 2008
Block 3
Yemen Block 3OMV Habban
New Basement Discovery>750m oil column
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OSL
Historical Focus = No Success
Oil Search Opportunity
West Ayad Field ~500sqkm 3D
85
OSH 34%, OperatorPSA signed by Minister 15 April, awaiting ratificationOMV’s recent Habban-1 Basement discovery in Block S2 and YICOM’s West Ayad fields are on-trend to untested Basement structures identified in Block 7Potential mean reserves range 20 - >100 mmbblsThe block is close to infrastructure4 firm wells commencing 2009
Yemen Block 7
Block 3
Block 7
Block S2
Block 8
Block 2
OSH 34%
OSH 60%
OMV HabbanNew Basement Discovery
>750m oil column
S N
Tilted Block
Strat . Traps
Tilted Block
86
Blocks 3 & 7Multiple Plays & Analogues
Block 10 Kharir Basement Field ~ 1 Billion mmbbl
Block S2 HabbanBasement Field ~ 350 mmbbl
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OSL
OSL
OSL
OSL
OSL
Historical Focus = No Success
Oil Search Opportunity
S N
Tilted Block
Strat . Traps
Tilted Block
87
Block 74OSH 34%
Nabrajah
Block 14 Fields>1.2 billion bbls
reserves
OSH 34% OperatorPSA signed by Minister 15 April 2007, awaiting ratificationBlock lightly explored with potential for Basement and conventional Qishn/Saar/Kholan playsPotential mean reserves range 20 - +50 mmbblsThe block is close to infrastructure3 firm wells commencing 2009
Yemen Block 74
Lead A
Quzah West Laed
Lead B
Quzah BasementLead
88
Yemen: Remaining 2007 Activity
Nabrajah-16
BLOCK 7
BLOCK 3BLOCK 15
BLOCK 35
BLOCK 74
BLOCK 49
BLOCK 43
ShirTerminal
West Ghobata-1(20mmstbo, COS=23%)
North Ghobata-1(10mmstbo, COS=20%
500sqkm 3D
Remaining 2007 Activity2 Exploration Wells in B49 testing total ~130mmbbl, OSH fully carried1 B43 Exploration & 1 Nabrajah Appraisal500+sqkm 3D in Blocks 3, continuing into Block 7 in 2008
Dahgah-16mmstbo,
COS = 30%
89
5 Year Exploration Period (ends May 2010)Commitments:
2000 km 2D seismic (completed)500 sqkm 3D seismic (completed)1 Exploration well (to be drilled 4Q 2008)
Libya Area 18
10000km2
Petrobras 70%Oil Search 30%
90
Libya Area 18Prospects and Leads
Reserves Range 100 –450MMbbls
1 Prospect and 3 Leads identified in the block1664km 2D and 830 sqkm 3D Seismic acquisition completed in 20071 exploration well scheduled 4Q08
Libya
91
Tunisia
Tajerouine 100%, operator (to be ratified)
Obligation 1st 4 year period 2D seismic and 1 well
Forward ProgramSigning at the end of October and licence effective 1Q 2008Strong interest from strategic partners to participateStudies & reprocessing in 2008Seismic in 2009
Le Kef 50% & control on operations (to be ratified)
Obligation 1st 4 year period 2D seismic and 1 well
Forward ProgramSigning by end of 2007 and licence effective 1Q 2008Studies & reprocessing in 2008Seismic in 2009
92
IRAN
IRAQ
SAUDI ARABIA
SYRIA
KUWAIT
TURKEY
Baghdad
Mosul
Tikrit
Kirkuk
Zakhu
BasrahOil Field
Gas FieldOil & Gas FieldGas Pipeline
Oil Pipeline
Oil Field
Gas FieldOil & Gas FieldGas Pipeline
Oil Pipeline
KurdistanRegion
0 200km
Iraq – Kurdistan ProvinceBina Bawi EPSA
Strategy20% equity in A&T Petroleum, option to convert to 10% direct EPSA interestLow cost, medium-long term positioning strategy
Establish a position in the prolific ZagrosStrategic position in future Western European energy marketsExposure to large, low risk potential reserves >500 mmbbls - ~2.0 bnbbls
Reasonable and secure EPSA Contract:20yr termRoyalty/production sharing
Bina Bawi EPSA
Kirkuk Field17 billion bbls
Taq Taq Field15,000bopdAddax/G-Energi
DNO Tawke-1wellFlowed oil 7,000bopd from zone at 350m
Bushyhr Project IranKEPS/OSH/Kufpec
93
KurdistanBina Bawi Potential
Proven Petroleum SystemLarge surface anticline: 350 sqkm; 800m closure For comparison: Kutubu 40 sqkmBina Bawi-1 and Bina Bawi-2 wells completed
Gas tested at 6 mmscfdOther zones not yet testedMechanical issues, further appraisal / testing required
Currently acquiring 250km 2D seismic program
Bina Bawi Surface Anticline:
P10: 800m vertical closure40x8km area
P90: 100m vertical closure 9x2 km area(similar area to Kutubu)
Bina Bawi-1 Well Location
Bina BawiEPSA
94
New Business Summary
Exploration - Organic GrowthBuild materiality around existing core areas
Develop assets that have operational synergies
Focus on material step out opportunities Build on established relationships with local partners and NOC’s
Establish reputation in focus areas as operator / partner of choice
Technical excellence and transparent operating style with partners and GovernmentsFocus on Health, Safety, Environment and Security and social development programsLocalisation program & commitment to training opportunities for staff and gov’t secondees
Assessing material acquisitions
95
MENAFocus, Activity and Results
Libya•Entry strategy•1 non-operated area (Petrobras
operator)•Acquired 1664km 2D seismic and
830sqkm 3D in 2007•1 prospect (250mmbbls+ potential)
and 3 leads•Drilling 1 well 4Q 2008
Egypt•Building material exploration position•6 Operated & 2 Non-operated•4 of these are development licences with production•ERQ
• 3 successes (Ghard, Shahd and Rana 7-10mmbo each)
• 25+ additional prospects requiring 2+ rigs• <2 years remaining on license• Require continuously active drilling program
•Area A Expln• 2 Nubia test have come in deep & wet• Incremental oil in shallower horizons• Next expl wells in 4Q 2007, seismic interp’n ongoing
•Block6• 1 well & seismic obligation, well in 2009/10
Iraq (Kurdistan)•Medium-long term
positioning strategy•10% indirect
participation in Bina Bawi EPSA
• Bina Bawi drilling program completed
• Currently acquiring 250km 2D seismic data
•Evaluating other material opportunities
Tunisia•Building material exploration
position•2 blocks captured (1 operated) – to
be ratified 1Q 2008•Work program for each area
includes 2D seismic and 1 well
Yemen•Material exploration position, largest licence holder in country•5 operated & 2 non-operated area•1 of these is a development licence with production (Nabrajah)•Prodn ahead of forecast but upside remains tantalising•Exploration program – 2 successes (Nab 13 & 15) & 9 dry holes
to date (3xB49, 2xB15, 2xB35, 2xB43)• B49 – large residual columns• B15 – downgrade deeper areas• B43 - disappointing• B35 – proved working hydrocarbon system in block
• Initial results disappointing but strong shows in B49 & B35 and proven oil in B15 attest to active petroleum systems
•Subsurface de-risking required in 2008 including 3D seismic in B3, B7 and potentially B49 (dependent on extension)
96
MENA2007/2008 Activity Schedule
2007 2008
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Offshore
Onshore (OSH Operated)
Seismic
Onshore (DNO Operated)
Wildcat exploration well
Development Well
EGYPT
Seismic
Commitment Well
YEMENBlock 49
West Ghobata
Block 49Balharak
North
Block 3
Offshore well
Block 43Thoub-1
Onshore A
Onshore ERQ
Blk43Nab-15
ERQRaheek-1
Block18Caliph-1
ERQ North(1000 sqkm)
Block 6(AeromagEgypt
Yemen
Libya
S GharibW ZeitS-22 Area AShukheir BayY-51Y-50
ERQRana-1
ERQSalma-1
ERQSE Shahd-1
ERQYara-1
ERQYara-1
ERQNW Lead
ERQSE Mesk-1
ERQYara NW-1
ERQ Centre(1000 sqkm)
ERQNE Lead
Zeit Updip
Blocks 3 & 7(500 sqkm)
Block 35Reeb-1
Blk43Nab-16
Blk43Dev’t
Block 43Dahgah-1
97
MENA Specific Issues
MENA licences are Production Sharing Agreements compared to PNG licences which are Tax/Royalty
Except Egypt Area ‘A’ which is a Revenue Sharing Service Agreement
Production Sharing Agreements allow for Cost Recovery and Profit Sharing between the Contractor and the Government
Not subject to income taxCosts (exploration, development and operating) are recoverable against any future production subject to a cost recovery limitRemaining revenue after cost recovery is shared between the Contractor and the Government
For Oil Search, MENA costs (including unsuccessful exploration expenses) are not tax deductible against PNG income because of PNG tax law
However, costs are recoverable against any future productionExploration costs in Egypt Area ‘A’ are tax deductible (it is a Revenue Sharing Service Agreement)