oklahoma agricultural land value update
DESCRIPTION
Oklahoma Agricultural Land Value Update. Roger Sahs, Extension Specialist OSU Department of Agricultural Economics. West-Northwest Tracts 171 Size 250 $/Acre $1310 % Chg +5.2. North Central Tracts 112 Size 170 $/Acre $1608 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Oklahoma Agricultural Land Value Update
Roger Sahs, Extension SpecialistOSU Department of Agricultural Economics
OK Land Values by Region, 2012
PanhandleTracts 39Size 595$/Acre $809% Chg +22.1
West-NorthwestTracts 171Size 250$/Acre $1310% Chg +5.2
North CentralTracts 112Size 170$/Acre $1608% Chg +6.5
NortheastTracts 286Size 284$/Acre $1634% Chg -3.0
East-NortheastTracts 33Size 195$/Acre $1828% Chg -6.0
South CentralTracts 101Size 237$/Acre $1574% Chg -2.2
SoutheastTracts 205Size 214 $/Acre $1548% Chg +4.6
State AveragesTracts 1114Size 257$/Acre $1468% Chg +2.1
SouthwestTracts 167Size 214$/Acre $1172% Chg +12.6
District2012 One Year
Change3 Year Change
$/ac Percent Change
Panhandle 809 22.1 63.0
West-NW 1310 5.2 31.5
Southwest 1172 12.6 25.9
North Central 1608 6.5 22.3
South Central 1574 -2.2 7.3
Northeast 1634 -3.0 2.9
East-NE 1828 -6.0 3.5
Southeast 1548 4.6 14.5
OK Cropland 1566 10.8 32.8
OK Pasture 1512 -0.5 9.5
Oklahoma 1468 2.1 14.1
Recent Trends in Oklahoma Land Values
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Oklahoma Cropland vs Pastureland Prices
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Upward but not steady climb in values.
“Boom to Bust” was only 30 years ago.
Major increase in values in recent years.
Oklahoma Cropland and Pastureland Prices Nominal vs Inflation Adjusted (base year
2000)
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Cropland
Pasture
1973-1975 Average ValueTracts >= 40 Acres and <= $3000/Acre
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
2010-2012 Average ValueTracts >= 40 Acres and <= $6000/Acre
Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues
Land prices going ahead…• Changes in the
environment– Farm Bill– Domestic economy– Global economy– Elections/policy– Interest rates
• Recreational uses– Wildlife habitat, wildlife population
• Development uses– Population growth– Per capita income
• Agriculture– Input prices– Cattle, wheat/feedgrain prices– Yields– Efficiency, productivity– Continued drought
Key Land drivers looking ahead… Recent commodity prices and farm
incomes Interest rate levels Financial health of current buyers
$/bu
shel
$ in
Bill
ions
Oklahoma Wheat Price and Net Farm Income
Source: ERS and NASS
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Net farm income Wheat Price
Source: KC Federal Reserve Bank, July 2013
Financial Strength
2013 Balance Sheet of the U.S. Farming Sector (forecast)
Total Farm Assets: Assets: $3.010 trillionTotal Farm Debt: $308 BillionTotal Farm Equity: Equity: $2.702 trillion
Debt to Equity Ratio: 11.4 Low!‐ ‐Debt to Asset Ratio: 10.2 Low!‐ ‐
Bottom-Line: Strong financial fundamentals for the Ag sector.Minimal Debt Leverage and Low Financial Stress!
Source: Economic Research Service, August 2013
Source: KC Federal Reserve Bank, July 2013
Source: KC Federal Reserve Bank, July 2013
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Resources
• Agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues• Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank– http://www.kc.frb.org/– Choose RESEARCH & DATA, then Economic Review or
Agricultural Credit Survey• USDA Ag Land Value Data and Reports– http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Land_Values
_and_Cash_Rents/index.asp