Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Long

Island, NY

Oliver Milton, Annie Steinberg, Jeff Wilson

Project Overview

Addressing the challenges of climate change in Long Island –specifically sea level riseHabitat fragmentationLoss of ecosystemsThreat to human communities

Goal/PurposeCreate a synthesis of methods for

characterizing, quantifying, and illustrating community vulnerability to sea level rise in Long Island, NY.

Spatially represent region’s most vulnerable communities

Synthesize method for combining sea level rise data and community vulnerability

BackgroundGranger, K. 2003. Quantifying storm tide risk

in Cairns. Natural Hazards 30: 165-185Defining risk

Need to Know QuestionsWhat method (attribute scheme) is best for

identifying vulnerable communities in the Long Island area?

Where are the vulnerable communities located on the map?

By what percent are each census blockgroups covered by the 1m sea level rise projection?

Where do vulnerable populations and sea-level rise projections intersect?

Where should coastal managers implement protection techniques using natural green infrastructure?

Methods (NTKQ #1)What method (attribute scheme) is best for identifying vulnerable communities in the Long Island area?

Age

Density

Income

RaceProportion to Pop.

“Value / Pop”

Critical Infrastructure

Transportation Infrastructure

Standardized Ratio

Rank in Excel (Highest to

Lowest)Tract_rank

Field Calculator:Add Ranks

Total_Tract_rank

Calculator: “#Tracts” x “#indicator categories”

Vulnerability Index

Methods (NTKQ #2)Where are the vulnerable communities located on the map?

Census Ranks

Blockgroup (Shp)

Join bySTFID

Blockgroup w/ rankings

Classify: Natural Breaks

(5 Classes)

Classified BG’sLow à High

Methods (NTKQ #3)

1. Convert sea-level rise raster data into vector2. Clip Census blockgroups with ranks by SLR

data3. Export attribute table 4. Join exported attribute table to Census

blockgroup layer by STFID5. Create new field “pct_cov”6. Use field calculator to calculate (Area Covered

by SLR)/(Census Block Area)7. Outcome is Percent_Covered for each

blockgroup

By what percent are each census blockgroups covered by the 1m sea level rise projection?

Percent Covered Workflow

Clip: “Census BG’s by

1m Vector”

Census BG’sW/Ranks

1m Vector

Census BG’sW/Ranks Clip

Export AttributeTable

Clip Attribute Table

Join By STFID

Joined Census BG’s W/Ranks

New Field:“pct_cov”

New Field (Shp)Field Calculator:“area” / “area”

Percent_Covered

Methods (NTKQ #4)Where do vulnerable populations and sea-level rise projections intersect?

Percent_Covered

Vulnerability Index

Field Calculator:“Percent_Covered”

x “Vul. Index”“At Risk” Index

Results

(Show google maps, city names where clusters exist)

Where should coastal managers implement protection techniques using natural green infrastructure?Mastic Beach

ResultsWhere should coastal managers implement protection techniques using natural green infrastructure? Saltaire and Fair Harbor

ConclusionsSignificant loss of infrastructure and life will

occur in Southern Suffolk County without interventionMany blockgroups of high vulnerability and

high riskObvious cluster areas

Points for intervention by coastal managersRequire more investigation

Ranking methods work well for identifying areas of most need

GIS is extremely useful in indentifying which areas will need intervention planning

RecommendationsIncorporate weightings

Survey community members/stakeholdersHigher resolution dataIncorporate multiple scenariosCombine ecosystem vulnerability with social

vulnerability