on access bandwidths per o. andersson. © ericsson ab 2004 2 outline moore’s law and residential...
TRANSCRIPT
On access bandwidths
Per O. Andersson
© Ericsson AB 2004 2
Outline
Moore’s law and residential services Symmetry Operational expenses Bandwidth Television Flexibility New services Future requirements
© Ericsson AB 2004 3
Digital Camera/Mobile
HDTV(1080i)B-DVD
…in any Package…
WXGA
HDTV(720p)
PAL-TV, DV, DVD
NTSC
VHSCD
© Ericsson AB 2004 5
…from the Home Operator…
…to operate the home network
…to act as 24/7/365 all-line helpdesk
…to be legal part for the relevant SLAs
…to specify, negotiate and deliver home network services to the end-users (family)
…to be responsible for multiple carrier agreements (broadband, mobile, fixed…)
…to take end-to-end responsibility for reliable service delivery to the end-user
…to track and follow the development of the relevant technologies (broadband, HDTV, convergence, VoIP, mobile, 3G, HSDPA, WiMax, fixed wireless, WiFi…
© Ericsson AB 2004 6
Will it continue…?- Does Moore hold up?
2000 2005 2010
x1
x10
x100
Internet expansion Image services?
x1000
x10 000
2015 2020
10 Gb155 Mb56 kb
100 Gb1+ Gb560 kb
1 Tb10 Gb6 Mb
10 Tb100 Gb60 Mb
100 Tb1 Tb
600 Mb
Practical fibre limit - 20-30 Tbit/s, fibre @ 1 bit/Hz
(water-peak)
1st Generation“Bubble-era systems” @ 32-40 x 10 Gb/s, channels running out of capacity. Next generation roll-out starts.
2nd GenerationTriple-play HDTV and corresponding services common. Broadband saturated in dense areas, >30% also outside major cities.
Note that Metro can be supplied by 10Gb SFP’s and simple 10ch CWDM until 2015…
© Ericsson AB 2004 9
Capex/Opex - Two approaches
Type A for high flexibility & optimised OpEx– Large Customer base with churn (incumbent)
Type B for lowest CapEx but higher OpEx– Build revenue streams with lower initial risk (competitive)
Capex/Opex
Type A
Type B
Future changes?
© Ericsson AB 2004 10
(A)symmetric Network Value
Symmetry very valuable:
– Any P2P network
– Most human communication
Symmetry irrelevant:
– Centralized content distribution
“Full disk” “Full disk”
Symmetric Network Asymmetric Network
Peering pointClass “B” Netizen
Cannot contribute to community
Class “A” NetizenCan serve the community
Note that many peer2peer applications now go beyond “filesharing” to become a professional way of distributing content and programs, telephony, grid computing etc…
© Ericsson AB 2004 11
ADSL2 Reach & Performance Overview
1 Km 2 Km 3 Km 4 Km 5 Km 6 KmLength, Km
8
24
ADSL
ADSL2+
VDSL
52
Data Rate, Mbps
ADSL2
12NTT measurement“centre of gravity”
Shannon’s information theorem…(S/N-limited, here: crosstalk)
“Pretty deep fibre”…
© Ericsson AB 2004 12
Distance(km)Loss(dB)
0.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 8
Legend : FLET’S ADSL 12M : FLET’S ADSL 8M : FLET’S ADSL 1.5M
Do
wn
stre
am B
it r
a te
Measured Distance and Speed for ADSL
From ECOC’04 Y. Maeda, NTT
3 km @ 2 Mbit/s
1 km @ 10 Mbit/s
Real upgrade path
Performance spread
© Ericsson AB 2004 13
“But you code all this to x Mb/s with MPEG-y…”
10 x 12 bits resolution– Total 120 pixels
21 bits of information
Information matched to display resolutio
E.g.5 Mb/s MPEG-2 on standard TV
© Ericsson AB 2004 14
...yes, but most of that means lower quality...
20 x 24 bits resolution– Total 480 pixels
21 bits of information
Information less than display resolution - for example due to compression
E.g.5 Mb/s MPEG-2 on HDTV
© Ericsson AB 2004 15
”High Definition” simply has more information!
20 x 24 bits resolution– Total 480 pixels
42 bits of information
Information matched to display resolution
E.g. 20 Mb/s MPEG-2 on HDTV
© Ericsson AB 2004 16
So what’s your Bandwidth...?
Display
Algorithm
Technology
Scene
Quality (PQR)
VHS DV HD1 HD2 D-Cinema
RAW Lossless MP-1 MP-2 MP-4
SportsMixedFace
3510
LeadingMediumSimple
1:100
1:200
1:4
1:?
Hi BWLo BW
Q-SIF
© Ericsson AB 2004 17
The bandwidth cube
Better Codec• MPEG-2 to H.264 (x 0.5)
Less cost & time• No quality review• Less coding (realtime!)• Processor, memory cost (x 2 …or 3…)
Image size• SDTV to HiDef (x 4)
Starting point• Hi performance
MPEG-2 SDTV(2 Mbit/s)
2
8
16 8
2
1
4
4
© Ericsson AB 2004 19
The price of bandwidth
Expensive bandwidth is not an axiom…
Price/bit
Cost/bit
Then Now Future
Price pressure on LL, flat-rate tariffs, “free” internet etc…(voice BW increments)
Historic voice & LL-pricing(voice BW increments)
Future “video-pricing”(video BW increments)
Present Nextgen equipment
© Ericsson AB 2004 20
The Next x10 – DTV-based…?
DTV is not the same old thing as TV… DTV requires > 95% penetration DTV requires “telecom quality” – Five 9’s - 99.999% or ~5 min/yr DTV requires 2-4 simultaneous channels/family, incl. HDTV Video can get away with 2 Mb/s - DTV needs 20-50 Mb/s…
Which “Triple Play”?– A) 1ch VoD + VoIP + BE Internet (BE, 5 Mbs)– B) 3-4ch (HD)TV + IP Telephony + Future Internet (QoS, 20-30
Mbs)
Three delivery methods:– Air– Cu– Fibre
Bandwidth, QoS
© Ericsson AB 2004 21
Competitive Landscape - Delivery
0,1 Mb/s
1 Mb/s
10 Mb/s
100 Mb/s
Modem
512k DSL
5M DSL
20M xDSL++
DTB
Cable
Fibre
Cu“Truckroll
s”
Modem STB, TV, PC…Servers, Transport Modem
Delivery?
© Ericsson AB 2004 22
Mistakes in History- Lee de Forest 1926
”Although Television may be theoretically and technically possible,
I consider it to be a financial and commercial impossibility”
(Radio pioneer, inventor of the
triode)
© Ericsson AB 2004 23
Help! I’m not used to this...!
Video services are “culturally uncharted territory”
Public acceptance may treat all services alike
Result has massive impact on telecom network
© Ericsson AB 2004 24
ECOC 2004 demoThe small roomThe large room
Testing the “Window to the world”
Small room “Telepresence” to KTH via Ericsson MINI-LINK
A “2K” projector – a.k.a. 1080 HDTV
A Community Hub model at ECOC 2004
© Ericsson AB 2004 25
The “Community Hub”
”Broadband for all”• 2nd wave/emerging markets
”Window to the world””Full-presence” video – eye, size, distance
• eye-commerce• e-government
• e-healthcare
”Centre Stage”• e-Cinema & event
• Personalized events• Politics & religion, sports
• Connection to mobile & 3G
© Ericsson AB 2004 26
2D and 3D Holography
2D Holography 2D images by diffraction from
dynamic hologram Essentially standard video-rates Requires Hi-Def SLM Requires RGB-lasers/LD(?) Prototypes today
Gives pocket HiDef-projectors
3D Holography Artificial real-time calculation and
generation of a true 3D hologram Requires x100 in processing power Requires ca 1um pitch SLM (today 10um) Requires RGB-lasers LD(?) 10 years with Moore?
Gives dynamic 3D imaging
© Ericsson AB 2004 27
Summary - bandwidths
Home networking - will be complex
Hi-Def & triple-play emerging
Multi-service, multi-vendor, multi-technology…
Your bandwidth may vary…
Symmetry will be valuable
Low Opex will be necessary
100 Mb/s Ethernet natural choice
© Ericsson AB 2004 28
Challenges for 21st Century Society
Business– Original, self-sustained, creation of value and employment is necessary to create
prosperity and security. Culture
– Unhindered access to local and world culture is necessary to be considered an attractive region to work and live in.
Society– High-quality societal services are necessary for a region to be able to care for its
inhabitants.
With
Availability– To all people in all parts of a region - or of the world.
Sustainability– Economic, Social and Environmental
© Ericsson AB 2004 31
Peak oil, est. 2008
Demandca 1,5% /yr
Supply
Meanwhile – in the Middle East…
Demand driven Supply driven
“Regular Oil & Gas”• Total “Oil in Place” ca 2,4Tb (arrels)• Daily use ca 80 Mb (arrels)• Yearly use ca 30 Gb (arrels)
© Ericsson AB 2004 32
Peak Oil meets Fibre Optics…
Assume PO ca 2010– Mental change– Transport prices increasing– Political and market uncertainties– Government and market adjustments & steering– Financing redirected towards energy (and transport) use
Terabit Society ca 2010– Bubble-era systems 32- 40ch @ 10 Gb/s filled up and to be replaced– Multi-Mb @ home, 10G @ metro, Terabit in transport– Analogue TV and photo being replaced – all is going digital– Emerging home networking
Energy consumption focus (flat screens, fibre…) “Second Opto-bubble”? – tempered by competition for funding…
Can “Moore” be maintained in the new paradigm?
© Ericsson AB 2004 33
Global Market Need- Long term to 2050 Long term growth markets – “important problems”
– Natural resource utilisation; oil, gas, water, forest, agriculture…– Sustainable manufacturing and recycling– Energy utilisation and distribution– Transport & Communication - main replacement for liquid fuels…– Medicine and care – demographic changes…
Success is required to obtain/maintain prosperity and security
Very large R&D resources will be directed towards energy “realignment”
Telecommunications will be truly key (physical transport replacement)
© Ericsson AB 2004 36