on models and modeling. you may recall this scene from monty python’s holy grail…
TRANSCRIPT
On Models and Modeling
You may recall this scene from Monty Python’s Holy Grail…
“Camelot!”
“Camelot!”
“It’s only a model”
Why concern ourselves with models?
Models are pervasive & powerful.
Models guide emergency plans
Models guide political policy
Models determine
teamstasks
& rewardsin the
workplace
Basic passenger Safety.
Mastery of unusual situations.
New equipment.
Models train pilots
Models shape learning.
Everyone visualizes this key relationship as a model.
Models interpret cultural behavior
“the pursuit of reputation… is the overriding preoccupation of human life.”
Social Psychology
“Consumption is always social; partitioning of goods … reflects an underlying partitioning of society.”
Social Psychology
Models interpret cultural behavior
THEORY OF EMULATION
the upper class is happy all the time;
Social Psychology
Models interpret cultural behavior
THEORY OF EMULATION
the upper class is happy all the time;
the upper middle class is happy 50% of the time;
Social Psychology
Models interpret cultural behavior
THEORY OF EMULATION
the upper class is happy all the time;
the upper middle class is happy 50% of the time;
the lower middle class is happy 25% of the time;
Social Psychology
Models interpret cultural behavior
THEORY OF EMULATION
the upper class is happy all the time;
the upper middle class is happy 50% of the time;
the lower middle class is happy 25% of the time;
the lowest class is (relatively) unhappy all of the time. Social Psychology
Models interpret cultural behavior
Models guide your financial choices:
What will I need to be comfortable 20 years from now?
Models are an important
intersection between
technology and human
values.
Models simplify complexity
When scientific knowledge is too complicated for us to fully understand.
Models make justifications
for past and future action.
Human values are expressed as variables in the model.
Models make justifications
for past and future action.
“What if we do this? What if that happens? What does the model show?”
If models simplifycomplex information and offer justifications for action…
…then what questions should you ask of a model?
?
Our goal:
To develop questions that can be applied to any model from any discipline.
I.Types of Models
II.Definitions of Models
III.Questions
IV.When to Question
I. What are the different types of
models?(we encounter all of these
in childhood)
A model is a rough representation of reality.
The purpose is just play, fun, taking on a challenge.
A model is an exact representation of reality.
The goal is exactitude. Details & scale are important. A model can become a big project.
Not to scale. Conceptually easier to grasp because not to scale.
A model is a convenient representation of reality.
A model is a normative representation of reality.
Variant forms and details are omitted.
A model is a focused representation of reality.
A model is a focused representation of reality.
Among all possible relationships, one is featured.
A model can be a meta-metaphorical representation of reality.
“The Circulatory System is the main transportation and cooling system for the body.”
A model can be a meta-metaphorical representation of reality.
“The Red Blood Cells act like billions of little UPS trucks carrying all sorts of packages that are needed by all the cells in the body….”
A model can be a meta-metaphorical representation of reality.
“White Blood Cells are the paramedics, police and street cleaners of the circulatory system.”
Analogous relationships
are featured.
By compiling our experiences, we see 6 aspects of models:
Rough – artistic, play, fun
Exact – artistic, but also predictive use
Normative – heuristic, applicable to all cases
Convenient – conceptually easier to grasp
Focused – conceptually easier to grasp
Meta-Metaphorical – conceptually easier to grasp
We can focus on 4 of these aspects:
Rough – artistic and fun
Exact – artistic and predictive
Normative – applicable to all cases
Convenient, Focused, & Meta-metaphorical –
easier to grasp
The Sony Aibo: fun, trainable, the everydog …& easier to manage, too!
I.Types of Models
II.Definitions of Models
III.Questions
IV.When to Question
II. Definitions of models
(What do professionals say about models?)
The give the elements of models, the
rationale for models, and the uses of
models.
In mathematics, model theory is the study of the representation of mathematical concepts in terms of set theory... Wikipedia
Elements of models
…It assumes there are pre-existing mathematical objects, and asks what can be proven given the objects, the relationships amongst the objects, and a set of axioms.
Wikipedia
Elements of models
•pre-existing objects
•relationship amongst the objects
•a set of axioms
Elements of models
A method of expressing relationships when measuring the real world is impractical.
mc2consulting Company
Rationale for models
Models help us to visualize the problem, to break it down into discrete, manageable units…Like any other instrument, a model assumes a specific intention of its user.
Educational Design
Rationale for models
•Measuring the real world is impractical
•Visualizing the problem, making it manageable
Rationale for models
A prototype or surrogate of a complex situation. It can be a physical model, such as an architectural model of urban design, or a mathematical model of interactions of many variables... Course on Future Studies, University of Arizona
Uses for models
It can be a stand-alone tool to evaluate different approaches using different assumptions.
Course on Future Studies, University of Arizona
Uses for models
A representation of the components of a process, system, or subject area, developed for understanding, analysis, improvement, and/or replacement of the process.
Interoperability Clearinghouse
Uses for models
•to evaluate different approaches using different assumptions.
•for understanding, analysis, improvement, and/or replacement of the process.
Uses for models
I.Types of Models
II.Definitions of Models
III.Questions
IV.When to Question
How do we question models?
TYPES:
Rough – fun
Exact – predictive
Normative – applicable
Convenient, Focused, & Meta-Metaphorical –easier to grasp
How do we question models?
TYPES:
Rough – fun
Exact – predictive
Normative – applicable
Convenient, Focused, & Meta-Metaphorical –easier to grasp
ELEMENTS •pre-existing objects•operations amongst the objects•a set of axioms
How do we question models?
TYPES:
Rough – fun
Exact – predictive
Normative – applicable
Convenient, Focused, & Meta-Metaphorical –easier to grasp
ELEMENTS •pre-existing objects•operations amongst the objects•a set of axioms
RATIONALE•real measuring is impractical•to visualize & manage the problem
How do we question models?
TYPES:
Rough – fun
Exact – predictive
Normative – applicable
Convenient, Focused, & Meta-Metaphorical –easier to grasp
ELEMENTS •pre-existing objects•operations amongst the objects•a set of axioms
RATIONALE•real measuring is impractical•to visualize & manage the problem
USES•evaluate approaches using different assumptions. •for understanding, analysis, improvement, and/or replacement of a process.
Questions: 5 are about information
1)What kind of data is being represented?
2)Of this set, is all data being shown, or is only some data being shown? Is the data exact or normative?
Questions: 5 are about information
3) Which data are being tracked and measured in real time, and which are generated by the model’s relationships and axioms?
Questions: 5 are about information
4) Which relationship is being highlighted? Is this relationship linked analogously to another model?
5) If the ultimate purpose of the model is predictive, is it possible to prove and/or falsify the data?
Questions: 3 are about interest
6) Who commissioned the model?
7) What was the purpose of the model? Was understanding, analysis, improvement or replacement of the current system explicitly mentioned?
8) Is the new model replacing an existing model?
Now we’ve developed some questions.
How do we apply them?
Information:
What kind of data is being represented?
Information:
Is the data exact or normative?
Information: Are the data are being tracked and measured in real time? Are the data generated by a model or by instruments?
Information:
Is it possible to prove or falsify the predictions?
Information: Can these relationships be linked by analogy to another model?
Interest: Who commissioned the model?
Interest:What was the purpose of the model?
Do all the questions apply to all models?
YES.
But if you can only ask 2 questions….
InformationIs there any data in the model which is not falsifiable?
InterestIs replacement one of the stated purposes of the model?
I.Types of Models
II.Definitions of Models
III.Questions
IV.When to Question
When Models Go Bad…
5 Reasons to question the model
1) When something just looks wrong.
Godzilla in the bathtub
5 Reasons to question the model
2) When there is only one possible choice to be made.
5 Reasons to question the model
3) When data consistently cannot be explained.
5 Reasons to question the model
4) When the model is not elegantly economical.
The Ptolemaic Universe
The Ptolemaic Universe
5 Reasons to question the model
5) When the category “human” is in question.
5 Reasons to question the model
When a group of “former” humans are re-classified as non-human. (losing rights)
Cesare Lombroso’s criminal types
5 Reasons to question the model
When a group of non-humans are re-classified as human. (obtaining rights)
So long, and thanks for all the fish.
Great Model Shifts Happen When…
1) When something just looks wrong.
2) When there is only one possible choice.
3) When data consistently cannot be explained.
4) When the model is not elegantly economical.
5) When the category “human” is in question.
IMAGE CREDITS
Cindy Crawfordhttp://cutechoice.com/cgi-bin/show.pl?celebname=Cindy_Crawford&pno=8
Limits to Growthhttp://www.healthtreasures.com/limits-to-growth-preface.html
Monty Python’s Holy Grailhttp://www.intriguing.com/mp/holygrail.asp
Katrina Track University of Wisconsin-MadisonCooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studieshttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archive/montage/atlantic/2005/KATRINA-track.gif
World Gas Reserves, Society of Petroleum Engineershttp://www.spe.org/specma/binary/images/2919957WORLDGASRESERVES.gif
http://www.globalclassroom.org/hemo.html
Myers-Briggs Personality Profileshttp://www.uwsp.edu/education/lwilson/learning/graphics/kirbys1.gif
IMAGE CREDITS
Pilot Traininghttp://www.link.com/gallery/f22_fmt_high_res.html
Supply and Demandhttp://www.sci.wsu.edu/math/Lessons/SupplyAndDemand/theory.html
Notes on MillerPersonal notes from ES 10
Insurance Life Expectancyhttp://web2.minnesotamutual.com/IMAGES/EDUCATE/LIFE_EXPECTANCY.GIF
My Simonhttp://www.mjweber.com/Confessionsmm/bots/bots.htm
Popsicle Projectshttp://pacifi.ca/models.htmlhttp://www.tinypineapple.com/archives/2003/10/disneyland_day_five_a_theme_park_with_a_theme.html
Car Modelswww.oakridgehobbies.com
IMAGE CREDITS
Solar System Modelshttp://www.brownmunoz.com/Universe/Universe_intro.html
Visible Womanhttp://www.plumcreekmarketing.com/07science/01images/fullsize/160321.jpg
USGS Water Cyclehttp://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/watercycle.html
Circulatory Systemhttp://www.globalclassroom.org/hemo.html
Aibo and Aibonehttp://gamma.cs.unc.edu/COMP290-58/aibo.jpghttp://www.mobilityparty.com/mobility_2003/press/
Axiomhttp://www.jtauber.com/blog/2005
IMAGE CREDITS
Oceanhttp://www.spartanburg2.k12.sc.us/OES/Ocean%20waves%20clipart.jpghttp://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/waves/watwav2.html
Replacement Modelhttp://web.pdx.edu/~stipakb/download/PA557/ReplacementModelExample.gif
Mae Westhttp://photos1.blogger.com/img/96/3696/320/Mae%20West.jpg
Godzillahttp://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/1160331/posts
Lombroso Criminal Typeshttp://ledroitcriminel.free.fr/utilitaires/iconographie/iconographie_1/lombroso_1_jpg_view.htm
Dolphins – So Long, and Thanks for All the Fishhttp://www.spawar.navy.mil/sandiego/technology/mammals/animals.html
Ptolemaic Universehttp://www.luminarium.org/encyclopedia/medievalcosmology.htmhttp://abyss.uoregon.edu/~js/ast121/lectures/lec02.html