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• On the Manipulation of Money and Credit

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The Liberty Fund Library of the Works of Ludwig von Mises

edited by bettina bien greaves

The Anti-capitalistic MentalityBureaucracyEconomic Freedom and Interventionism: An Anthology

of Articles and EssaysEconomic Policy: Thoughts for Today and TomorrowHuman Action: A Treatise on EconomicsInterventionism: An Economic AnalysisLiberalism: The Classical TraditionNation, State, and Economy: Contributions to the Politics

and History of Our TimeOmnipotent Government: The Rise of the Total State and Total WarOn the Manipulation of Money and Credit: Three Treatises on

Trade-Cycle TheoryPlanning for Freedom: Let the Market System Work A Collection of Essays and AddressesSocialism: An Economic and Sociological AnalysisTheory and History: An Interpretation of Social and

Economic EvolutionThe Theory of Money and CreditThe Ultimate Foundation of Economic Science: An Essay

on Method

edited by richard m. ebeling

Selected Writings of Ludwig von Mises

Volume 1: Monetary, Fiscal, and Economic Policy Problems Before, During, and After the Great War

Volume 2: Between the Two World Wars: Monetary Disorder, Interventionism, Socialism, and the Great Depression

Volume 3: The Political Economy of International Reform and Reconstruction

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ludwig von mises

FPO

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On the Manipulation of Money and CreditThree Treatises on Trade-Cycle Theory

• Ludwig von MisesTranslated and with a Foreword by Bettina Bien GreavesEdited by Percy L. Greaves, Jr.

liberty fund Indianapolis

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This book is published by Liberty Fund, Inc., a foundation established to encourage study of the ideal of a society of free and responsible individuals.

The cuneiform inscription that serves as our logo and as the design motif for our endpapers is the earliest-known written appearance of the word “freedom” (amagi), or “liberty.” It is taken from a clay document written about 2300 b.c. in the Sumerian city-state of Lagash.

© 1978 by Liberty Fund, Inc.

New foreword and index © 2011 by Liberty Fund, Inc. All rights reserved

On the Manipulation of Money and Credit was originally published in 1978 by Free Market Books.

Front cover photograph of Ludwig von Mises used by permission of the Ludwig von Mises Institute, Auburn, Alabama.Frontispiece courtesy of Bettina Bien Greaves.

Printed in the United States of America

C 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1P 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataVon Mises, Ludwig, 1881–1973.

On the manipulation of money and credit: three treatises on trade-cycle theory / Ludwig von Mises; translated and with a fore-word by Bettina Bien Greaves; edited by Percy L. Greaves, Jr. p. cm.Includes bibliographical references and index.isbn 978-0-86597-761-7 (hardcover: alk. paper)—isbn 978-0-86597-762-4 (pbk.: alk. paper) 1. Monetary policy. 2. Credit. 3. Business cycles. I. Greaves, Percy L. II. Greaves, Bettina Bien. III. Title.

hb3723 .v664 2011332.4′6—dc22 2009024020

Liberty Fund, Inc.8335 Allison Pointe Trail, Suite 300Indianapolis, Indiana 46250-1684

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Contents

Foreword xiii

STABILIzATION OF THE MONETARy UNIT— FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF THEORy (1923) 1

Introduction 3

chapter I The Outcome of Inflation1 Monetary Depreciation 52 Undesired Consequences 83 Effect on Interest Rates 94 The Run from Money 105 Effect of Speculation 116 Final Phases 127 Greater Importance of Money to a Modern Economy 13

chapter II The Emancipation of Monetary Value from the Influence of Government

1 Stop Presses and Credit Expansion 152 Relationship of Monetary Unit to World Money—Gold 163 Trend of Depreciation 17

chapter III The Return to Gold1 Eminence of Gold 192 Sufficiency of Available Gold 20

chapter IV The Money Relation1 Victory and Inflation 222 Establishing Gold “Ratio” 23

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viii • contents

chapter V Comments on the “Balance of Payments” Doctrine

1 Refined Quantity Theory of Money 262 Purchasing Power Parity 273 Foreign Exchange Rates 284 Foreign Exchange Regulations 30

chapter VI The Inflationist Argument1 Substitute for Taxes 322 Financing Unpopular Expenditures 333 War Reparations 344 The Alternatives 355 The Government’s Dilemma 37

chapter VII The New Monetary System1 First Steps 392 Market Interest Rates 41

chapter VIII The Ideological Meaning of Reform1 The Ideological Conflict 43

Appendix. Balance of Payments and Foreign Exchange Rates 45

MONETARy STABILIzATION AND CyCLICAL POLICy (1928) 51

Preface 53

Part I Stabilization of the Purchasing Power of the Monetary Unit

chapter I The Problem1 “Stable Value” Money 592 Recent Proposals 60

chapter II The Gold Standard1 The Demand for Money 622 Economizing on Money 64

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3 Interest on “Idle” Reserves 664 Gold Still Money 68

chapter III The “Manipulation” of the Gold Standard1 Monetary Policy and Purchasing Power of Gold 692 Changes in Purchasing Power of Gold 71

chapter IV “Measuring” Changes in the Purchasing Power of the Monetary Unit

1 Imaginary Constructions 732 Index Numbers 76

chapter V Fisher’s Stabilization Plan1 Political Problem 792 Multiple Commodity Standard 803 Price Premium 814 Changes in Wealth and Income 835 Uncompensatable Changes 85

chapter VI Goods-induced and Cash-induced Changes in the Purchasing Power of the Monetary Unit

1 The Inherent Instability of Market Ratios 872 The Misplaced Partiality to Debtors 89

chapter VII The Goal of Monetary Policy1 Liberalism and the Gold Standard 922 “Pure” Gold Standard Disregarded 933 The Index Standard 94

Part II Cyclical Policy to Eliminate Economic Fluctuations

chapter I Stabilization of the Purchasing Power of the Monetary Unit and Elimination of the Trade Cycle

1 Currency School’s Contribution 992 Early Trade Cycle Theories 1003 The Circulation Credit Theory 102

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chapter II Circulation Credit Theory1 The Banking School Fallacy 1052 Early Effects of Credit Expansion 1073 Inevitable Effects of Credit Expansion on Interest Rates 1094 The Price Premium 1105 Malinvestment of Available Capital Goods 1106 “Forced Savings” 1127 A Habit-forming Policy 1138 The Inevitable Crisis and Cycle 114

chapter III The Reappearance of Cycles1 Metallic Standard Fluctuations 1172 Infrequent Recurrences of Paper Money Inflations 1183 The Cyclical Process of Credit Expansions 1194 The Mania for Lower Interest Rates 1215 Free Banking 1236 Government Intervention in Banking 1257 Intervention No Remedy 126

chapter IV The Crisis Policy of the Currency School1 The Inadequacy of the Currency School 1282 “Booms” Favored 130

chapter V Modern Cyclical Policy1 Pre–World War I Policy 1312 Post–World War I Policies 1323 Empirical Studies 1334 Arbitrary Political Decisions 1355 Sound Theory Essential 137

chapter VI Control of the Money Market1 International Competition or Cooperation 1392 “Boom” Promotion Problems 1413 Drive for Tighter Controls 142

chapter VII Business Forecasting for Cyclical Policy and the Businessman

1 Contributions of Business Cycle Research 1452 Difficulties of Precise Prediction 146

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chpater VIII The Aims and Method of Cyclical Policy1 Revised Currency School Theory 1482 “Price Level” Stabilization 1493 International Complications 1504 The Future 151

THE CAUSES OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS (1931) 153

chapter I The Nature and Role of the Market1 The Marxian “Anarchy of Production” Myth 1552 The Role and Rule of Consumers 1563 Production for Consumption 1574 The Perniciousness of a “Producers’ Policy” 158

chapter II Cyclical Changes in Business Conditions1 Role of Interest Rates 1602 The Sequel of Credit Expansion 161

chapter III The Present CrisisA. Unemployment

1 The Market Wage Rate Process 1642 The Labor Union Wage Rate Concept 1653 The Cause of Unemployment 1664 The Remedy for Mass Unemployment 1675 The Effects of Government Intervention 1686 The Process of Progress 169

B. Price Declines and Price Supports1 The Subsidization of Surpluses 1702 The Need for Readjustments 172

C. Tax Policy1 The Anti-capitalistic Mentality 173

D. Gold Production1 The Decline in Prices 1742 Inflation as a “Remedy” 176

chapter IV Is There a Way Out?1 The Cause of Our Difficulties 1772 The Unwanted Solution 178

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THE CURRENT STATUS OF BUSINESS CyCLE RESEARCH AND ITS PROSPECTS FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE (1933) 179

1 The Acceptance of the Circulation Credit Theory of Business Cycles 181

2 The Popularity of Low Interest Rates 1823 The Popularity of Labor Union Policy 1844 The Effect of Lower than Unhampered Market

Interest Rates 1845 The Questionable Fear of Declining Prices 185

THE TRADE CyCLE AND CREDIT ExPANSION: THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF CHEAP MONEy (1946) 187

1 Introductory Remarks 1892 The Unpopularity of Interest 1893 The Two Classes of Credit 1914 The Function of Prices, Wage Rates and Interest Rates 1925 The Effects of Politically Lowered Interest Rates 1946 The Inevitable Ending 198

Index 199

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Foreword

This book is a collection of papers written by Mises during the 1920s and 1930s on money and the boom/bust trade cycle, the field in which one finds perhaps Mises’s greatest contribution to economics. The pa-pers included in this volume were first published in English with other materials by Free Market Books in 1978 and were reprinted later by the Ludwig von Mises Institute under the title The Causes of Economic Crisis and Other Essays Before and After the Great Depression (2006). Although Mises had long been interested in all aspects of monetary theory, these particular essays are devoted more specifically to his the-ory of monetary crises than are his other more general works.

Soon after Mises had earned his doctorate from the University of Vi-enna, he determined to write a book on money. To do a thorough job, he thought he should start with direct exchange, but he didn’t believe he would have time, as he saw war looming in Europe. Although he had completed the compulsory military service required of all young men in the Austria-Hungary of his day, he would be subject to recall if war came. So he didn’t begin with direct exchange but with indi-rect (nonbarter) exchange, building on the subjective marginal utility theory of value developed by his Austrian predecessors Carl Menger and Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk. His explanation was in direct opposi-tion to the then-popular “state theory of money,” which defined money as whatever the government decreed to be money.

That book, titled in German Theorie des Geldes und der Umlaufs-mittel, appeared in 1912.1 Mises explained there that money was a mar-ket phenomenon, which developed out of barter as individuals traded with one another in the attempt to discover something they could use

1. Die Theorie des Geldes und der Umlaufsmittel (Munich and Leipzig: Duncker & Humblot, 1912), expanded in 1924, and translated into English and first published in 1934 as The Theory of Money and Credit (Indianapolis: Liberty Fund, 1981).

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as a medium of exchange. After dealing with money, Mises discussed banking. In this 1912 book he first raised the possibility that the banks might lower interest rates below market rates by increasing their issue of fiduciary media. Mises even considered that a bank might increase the quantity of money so much that its purchasing power might go down to 1/100th of its previous value, or even less if the monetary in-creases were continued. In that case, he then posited its purchasing power might decline until businesses would avoid it altogether and find something else to use as a medium of exchange. His contempo-raries dismissed and discounted this possibility.

Mises described how the inflation (monetary expansion) fostered by the banks would lead to widespread price increases and economic malinvestment; however, if and when the banks stopped inflating, businesses would crash, the economy would stagnate, and all prices of goods and services would be readjusted. Thus, in 1912 Mises laid the groundwork for explaining the causes of the economic crises which afflicted capitalistic economies periodically and how to prevent them. But the world paid little attention; Mises’s book was practically ignored, even ridiculed.

Mises’s work in economics was interrupted by World War I, when he was called back into military service and served on the Eastern front. After the war, however, he continued to write on money. During the 1920s and 1930s, he built on and expanded the general monetary theory first set forth in The Theory of Money and Credit, and subsequently elaborated upon it in his later major works on economics, the German-language Nationalökonomie (1940) and its English language version, Human Action (1949).2 The several monographs included in this pres-ent collection, written between the two World Wars, are devoted spe-cifically to the theory of the trade cycle and include some of Mises’s most important contributions to monetary theory.

My economist and historian husband, Percy L. Greaves, Jr.—like me, a longtime student of Mises—selected the papers included in this anthology as Mises’s most important papers on money which had not previously appeared in English. The 1978 edition and 2006 reprint in-cluded an epilogue with articles on monetary theory by my husband. The epilogue has been omitted from this Liberty Fund edition in or-der to focus solely on the ideas of Mises.

2. Human Action: An Economic Treatise (Indianapolis: Liberty Fund, 2007).

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foreword • xv

In reading these works, keep in mind that Mises used the term “liberal” in the classical sense to refer to a free society and the term “inflation” to mean an increase in the quantity of money and credit, rather than one of the inevitable consequences of that increase, higher prices.

Bettina Bien Greaves May 2008

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• Stabilization of the Monetary Unit— From the Viewpoint of Theory

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Introduction

Attempts to stabilize the value of the monetary unit strongly influence the monetary policy of almost every nation today. They must not be confused with earlier endeavors to create a monetary unit whose ex-change value would not be affected by changes from the money side. In those olden and happier times, the concern was with how to bring the quantity of money into balance with the demand, without chang-ing the purchasing power of the monetary unit. Thus, attempts were made to develop a monetary system under which no changes would emerge from the side of money to alter the ratios between the generally used medium of exchange (money) and other economic goods. The economic consequences of the widely deplored changes in the value of money were to be completely avoided.

There is no point nowadays in discussing why this goal could not then, and in fact cannot, be attained. Today we are motivated by other concerns. We should be happy just to return again to the monetary situation we once enjoyed. If only we had the gold standard back again, its shortcomings would no longer disturb us; we would just have to make the best of the fact that even the value of gold undergoes certain fluctuations.

Today’s monetary problem is a very different one. During and af-ter the war [World War 1, 1914–1918], many countries put into circula-tion vast quantities of credit money, which were endowed with legal tender quality. In the course of events described by Gresham’s Law, gold disappeared from monetary circulation in these countries. These countries now have paper money, the purchasing power of which is

[Die geldtheoretische Seite des Stabilisierungsproblems (Schriften des Vereins für Sozialpolitik. Vol. 164, Part 2. Munich and Leipzig: Duncker & Humblot, 1923). Mises presented the original manuscript of this essay to the publisher in January 1923, more than eight months before the final breakdown of the German mark, but its publication was delayed.—Ed.]

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subject to sudden changes. The monetary economy is so highly devel-oped today that the disadvantages of such a monetary system, with sud-den changes brought about by the creation of vast quantities of credit money, cannot be tolerated for long. Thus the clamor to eliminate the deficiencies in the field of money has become universal. People have become convinced that the restoration of domestic peace within na-tions and the revival of international economic relations are impossible without a sound monetary system.

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I

The Outcome of Inflation

1. Monetary Depreciation

If the practice persists of covering government deficits with the issue of notes, then the day will come without fail, sooner or later, when the monetary systems of those nations pursuing this course will break down completely. The purchasing power of the monetary unit will de-cline more and more, until finally it disappears completely. To be sure, one could conceive of the possibility that the process of monetary de-preciation could go on forever. The purchasing power of the monetary unit could become increasingly smaller without ever disappearing en-tirely. Prices would then rise more and more. It would still continue to be possible to exchange notes for commodities. Finally, the situation would reach such a state that people would be operating with billions and trillions and then even higher sums for small transactions. The monetary system would still continue to function. However, this pros-pect scarcely resembles reality.

In the long run, trade is not helped by a monetary unit which con-tinually deteriorates in value. Such a monetary unit cannot be used as a “standard of deferred payments.” Another intermediary must be found for all transactions in which money and goods or services are not exchanged simultaneously. Nor is a monetary unit which continually depreciates in value serviceable for cash transactions either. Everyone becomes anxious to keep his cash holding, on which he continually suffers losses, as low as possible. All incoming money will be quickly spent. When purchases are made merely to get rid of money, which is shrinking in value, by exchanging it for goods of more enduring worth, higher prices will be paid than are otherwise indicated by other cur-rent market relationships.

In recent months, the German Reich has provided a rough picture

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of what must happen, once the people come to believe that the course of monetary depreciation is not going to be halted. If people are buy-ing unnecessary commodities, or at least commodities not needed at the moment, because they do not want to hold on to their paper notes, then the process which forces the notes out of use as a generally accept-able medium of exchange has already begun. This is the beginning of the “demonetization” of the notes. The panicky quality inherent in the operation must speed up the process. It may be possible to calm the excited masses once, twice, perhaps even three or four times. How-ever, matters must finally come to an end. Then there is no going back. Once the depreciation makes such rapid strides that sellers are fearful of suffering heavy losses, even if they buy again with the greatest pos-sible speed, there is no longer any chance of rescuing the currency.

In every country in which inflation has proceeded at a rapid pace, it has been discovered that the depreciation of the money has eventually proceeded faster than the increase in its quantity. If m represents the actual number of monetary units on hand before the inflation began in a country, P represents the value then of the monetary unit in gold, M the actual number of monetary units which existed at a particular point in time during the inflation, and p the gold value of the mon-etary unit at that particular moment, then (as has been borne out many times by simple statistical studies):

mP > Mp.

On the basis of this formula, some have tried to conclude that the devaluation had proceeded too rapidly and that the actual rate of ex-change was not justified. From this, others have concluded that the monetary depreciation is not caused by the increase in the quantity of money, and that obviously the Quantity Theory could not be correct. Still others, accepting the primitive version of the Quantity Theory, have argued that a further increase in the quantity of money was per-missible, even necessary. The increase in the quantity of money should continue, they maintain, until the total gold value of the quantity of money in the country was once more raised to the height at which it was before the inflation began. Thus:

Mp = mP.

The error in all this is not difficult to recognize. For the moment, let us disregard the fact—which will be analyzed more fully below—that