On the policy effectiveness On the policy effectiveness of abatement measuresof abatement measures

Frank de Leeuw

11th AQ EIONET

26-27 October 2006, La Rochelle

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 211th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

Pilot project (TNO, MNP)Pilot project (TNO, MNP)

Testing the methodology on Testing the methodology on

LCPsLCPs

EURO standardsEURO standards

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 311th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

Three scenarios; three yearsThree scenarios; three years

1. Reference case2. Without abatement3. Measures fully implemented

Reference years: 1990, 1995, 2003

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 411th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

MethodologyMethodology

Emission = activity times emission factorEmission = activity times emission factor

Activity data per sector: ESTAT, RAINSActivity data per sector: ESTAT, RAINS

EF: RAINS, LCP DirectiveEF: RAINS, LCP Directive

Pollutants: SO2, NOx, NMVOCPollutants: SO2, NOx, NMVOC

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 511th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

MethodologyMethodology

LOTOS-EUROS model

1990Unab ref MFR

Unab ref MFR 2003

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 611th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

Road transport & EURO standards

-

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

8 000 000

9 000 000

10 000 000

1990 1995 2003 1990 1995 2003 1990 1995 2003

Current Road Transport Unabated Road Transport MFR

Road transport, GasolineRoad transport, DieselRoad transport, LPG

Pollutant NOx Unit Mg

Sum of Emission

ScenarioName year

SectorName

NOxNOx

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 711th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

NOxNOx

Stationary combustion & LCP

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

8 000 000

9 000 000

10 000 000

1990 1995 2003 1990 1995 2003 1990 1995 2003

Current LCP Unabated LCP MFR

Non-industrial combustion plantsCombustion in manufacturing industryCombustion in energy industries

Pollutant NOx Unit Mg

Sum of Emission

ScenarioName year

SectorName

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 811th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

EURO standards & NOxEURO standards & NOx

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 911th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

LCP Directive & SO2LCP Directive & SO2

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 1011th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

LCP Directive & SO2LCP Directive & SO2

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 1111th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

Ozone (annual mean)Ozone (annual mean)

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 1211th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

Validation? SO2 trendValidation? SO2 trend

GB0514A

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

jan-90

jan-91

jan-92

jan-93

jan-94

jan-95

jan-96

jan-97

jan-98

jan-99

jan-00

jan-01

jan-02

jan-03

jan-04

ozon

e (u

g/m

3)

GB0514A

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 1311th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

Validation?Validation?

FI: few continuous pairs

GB: few continuous pairs

NL: few, but continuous, pairs

PT: many continuous pairs

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

96

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

96

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

96

FI: NOx (meas) increment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

ug

/m3

GB: NOx (meas) increment

0

50

100

150

200

250

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

ug

/m3

NL: NOx (calc) increment

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

ug

/m3

PT: NOx (calc) increment

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

ug

/m3

FI: NOx Emissions (kTonnes)

cur

ab.

unab.

0

250000

1990 1995 2003

GB: NOx Emissions (kTonnes)

cur

ab.

unab.

0

2500000

1990 1995 2003

NL: NOx Emissions (kTonnes)

cur

ab.

unab.

0

400000

1990 1995 2003

PT: NOx Emissions (kTonnes)

cur

ab.

unab.

0

300000

1990 1995 2003

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw 1411th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006

ConclusionConclusion

• Work in progress but promissing

• Better validation

• Extend analysis with– CO– Cost data– Impact – Other directives (e.g. solvent)

• Explore more local scale (national)