one year on – enfield’s skills and employment strategy revisited
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One year on – Enfield’s skills and employment strategy revisited. Paul Convery 8 th July 2009. The economic vision for Enfield. To increase jobs and wealth in the Borough: tackle worklessness and poverty create a more socially cohesive Borough residents secure a good standard of living - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Paul ConveryPaul Convery
88thth July 2009 July 2009
One year on – Enfield’s skills and employment strategy revisited
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
The economic vision for Enfield
• To increase jobs and wealth in the Borough:
– tackle worklessness and poverty
– create a more socially cohesive Borough
– residents secure a good standard of living
– residents achieve their ambitions and goals
• This requires us to:
– foster enterprise
– raise skills
– increase employment throughout the Borough
But this was a vision devised in “good times” …
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
But … recession has struck
• We start this recession with more workless claimants than previous recession
• JSA totals rose rapidly between May 2008 and May 2009
• the number of other claimants (IB/IS) has remained fairly static
• employment rate was already declining
However … so far there is:
• Not much worsening of defaults on Council Tax and business rates
• No noticeable increase in demand for Council or RSL housing
• Limited evidence of mortgage default and forced sales
But there are risks ahead:
• This year’s school and college leavers face a very uncertain future
• Local economy is already weak … and recessions tend to have “lagging” effects
• Worst wards performing worse: the gap is widening
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
The “Enfield paradox”
• … the Borough did not fully benefit from London’s rapid growth in the last decade or so …
• … but we may suffer disproportionately from the downturn.
Preparing for the recoverySo, the Borough and its residents may have to work even harder to:• Retain existing businesses in Enfield and help them survive• Attract new businesses to replace the inevitable losses• Make our “place shaping” ambitions succeed• Compete for available jobs elsewhere in London – especially central
London and (especially) …• … to equip our young people with the skills and knowledge to gain a
foothold in work
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Count of JSA claimants (since mid 2008) - Enfield (not seasonally adjusted)
8,628
5,251
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
May
-08
Jun-
08
Jul-0
8
Aug
-08
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
• JSA count has risen by 3,400 – which is a 64% increase (exactly conforms to the London average)
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Enfield wards May-08 May-09 -- Increase --
Bowes 234 423 189 81%
Bush Hill Park 129 249 120 93%
Chase 197 360 163 83%
Cockfosters 125 239 114 91%
Edmonton Green 552 721 169 31%
Enfield Highway 331 507 176 53%
Enfield Lock 324 601 277 85%
Grange 88 205 117 133%
Haselbury 336 529 193 57%
Highlands 135 243 108 80%
Jubilee 305 452 147 48%
Lower Edmonton 383 545 162 42%
Palmers Green 243 418 175 72%
Ponders End 422 640 218 52%
Southbury 258 432 174 67%
Southgate 135 281 146 108%
Southgate Green 203 308 105 52%
Town 127 271 144 113%
Turkey Street 255 465 210 82%
Upper Edmonton 443 606 163 37%
Winchmore Hill 104 256 152 146%
Total 5,251 8,628 3,377 64%
• Largest absolute increases are in the Borough’s disadvantaged eastern wards. But, these wards have quite small proportionate increases – because they already had much higher JSA totals to start with
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
We already had severe problems …
• Employment rate was already worsening – fell from 72% in late 2006 to around 67% by late 2008
• Total number of claimants represented just over 14% of all working age adults (about 20,000 people) in mid 2008 … so is around 23,500
• In worst neighbourhoods, claimant rates of more than 30%• 29% of all households in the Borough (34,500) receive HB/CTB:• in eight wards a third or more of households receiving HB/CTB
… in Edmonton Green, it is just over 50%
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
The Enfield economy
• We have a growing, changing but under-performing local economy:– Few knowledge intensive sectors– Relatively low output and productivity– Public sector dominates– Small and medium sized firms– Low business formation rates– Limited presence of London’s growth sectors – Employers are not prepared for future change
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
The population is changing … and is under-employed
• Population is growing quickly – and is younger• Increasingly diverse … low employment rates• Employment rate gap in the range of between:
– 5,000 (match London employment rate)– Or 12,000 (align with GB employment rate)– Or 22,000 (achieve 80% employment rate)
• Young adults, women and disabled have low employment rates
• Over 25,000 residents want-to-work (mostly inactive)• Geographical concentration has worsened
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Employment rates(working age population)
55%
57%
59%
61%
63%
65%
67%
69%
71%
73%
75%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Great Britain London Enfield
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Employment gap - how many more people need to be in work to match the GB employment
rates? (2008)
200
4,500
2,600
8,500
11,900
11,700
8,000
6,200
0 4,000 8,000 12,000
Enfield
Haringey
Hackney
Waltham Forest
Men Women
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Workless rates: "want to work"(working age population) 2008
11%
11%
14%
15%
17%
13%
9%
15%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Enfield
Haringey
Waltham Forest
Hackney
Men Women
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Workless rates - "Want to work"(working age population)
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Great Britain London Enfield
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Out-of-work benefit claimants in Enfield - Aug 1999 to Aug 2008 (NI 152)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Lone parents Incapacity benefits JSA Other workless
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Out-of-work claimant rates Enfield (NI 152)(as % of the working age population, rolling 4 quarters)
12.4%
14.4%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
London Enfield
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Out-of-work claimant rates in the worst performing neighbourhoods in Enfield (NI 153)
(as % of the working age population, rolling 4 quarters)
28.4%
26.2%
27.0%27.8%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
Feb
-06
Apr
-06
Jun-
06
Aug
-06
Oct
-06
Dec
-06
Feb
-07
Apr
-07
Jun-
07
Aug
-07
Oct
-07
Dec
-07
Feb
-08
Apr
-08
Jun-
08
Aug
-08
London Enfield
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
… and the population is lower skilled
• Very low employment rates for unskilled … 48,000 (27%) are at level 1 or less
• Very high employment rates for level 4+ … but fewer of them
• Over the next decade, new jobs will require higher skills – both in the Borough and beyond:– A third will be at Level 4 and a half will be for top 3 SOCs– skilled trades will make-up only 7% of all new jobs– machine operators and elementary occupations will account for
another 15%.– A fifth will be OK for no-low skilled– Retail/wholesale, hospitality, business services and public sector
• London economy will require more level 3 and 4
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Percentage of working age population qualified to NVQ level 4 or above (2007)
29%
37%
40%
29%
42%
30%
51%
37%
45%
54%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Great Britain
London
Barnet
Enfield
Haringey
Waltham Forest
Camden
Hackney
Islington
Westminster
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Percentage of population qualified to NVQ level 4 or above
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%19
99
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Great Britain London Enfield
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Percentage of working age population "low-no skilled" 2007
13%
11%
15%
15%
20%
11%
19%
14%
16%
10%
9%
12%
8%
11%
6%
10%
9%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30%
London
Barnet
Enfield
Haringey
Waltham Forest
Camden
Hackney
Islington
Redbridge
No qualifications Level 1 only
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Percentage of population "low-no skilled"(only achieved NVQ 1 or have no qualifications),
2007
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Great Britain London Enfield
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Action Plan: “stimulate employers”
• Support inward investment and business growth to increase demand– Strengthen LEPs– Expand Train to Gain– Increase Skills Pledge firms to 50%– Simplify engagement with businesses– Increase Level 2, Level 3 and progression to HE– Promote apprenticeships– Increase employer engagement in primary and 14-19– Strengthen business leadership Borough-wide and
locally
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Action Plan: “helping people”
• Increase skills and employability in disadvantaged areas and people– Reduce number of benefit claimants in worst areas– Concentrate on priority population groups– Deliver ULV “North London Pledge”– Integrated service offer – Enfield JobNet– Deliver Pathways to Work– Deliver higher volumes of Skills for Life and Skills
for Jobs
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
Action Plan: “fixing the wiring”
• Better co-ordination, planning, information sharing and networking– Joint commissioning plan– Partners and providers collaborate to seek new
funding– Data sharing between partners– Networking between providers of 14-19 and adult
services– Strengthen Enfield Observatory’s market intelligence
role
Paul Convery Research & Consultancy
Enfield Skills & Employment Strategy
What might schools and colleges do?
• Gain access to adequate information about the emerging labour market and the expectations of employers
• Consider formally adopting a strategic intention to equip pupils & students with the skills required in a more knowledge-based and higher technology working future
• Consider a more formal reporting of work-related offer in School Improvement Plans and record successes in the self evaluation
• Identify further ways to engage with employers in addition to existing connections
• Consider how the current school curriculum be adjusted to make sure that pupils & students engaged in more academic courses also benefit from a base of vocational knowledge
• Develop closer involvement of employers in their day to day activities so that students get a clearer understanding of the world of work?
• Consider other ways (in addition to Diplomas) of offering an alternative curriculum work-focussed offer within the 14-19 phase?