online appendix: tra cking networks and the mexican drug war · mexican drug war melissa dell...

Online Appendix: Trafficking Networks and the

Mexican Drug War

Melissa Dell

February 6, 2015

Contents

A-1 Estimation appendix A–3

A-1.1 The shortest paths problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–3

A-1.2 Solving for the congested trafficking equilibrium . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–3

A-1.3 Moments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–4

A-1.4 Maximizing the simulated method of moments objective function . . . A–5

A-1.5 Inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–6

A-1.6 The government’s resource allocation problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–7

A-2 Additional Results A–10

A-2.1 Robustness of Balance Checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–10

A-2.2 Robustness of Regressions Discontinuity Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . A–20

A-2.3 Robustness to Using Differences-in-Differences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–26

A-2.4 Police-Criminal Confrontations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–37

A-2.5 Robustness of Heterogeneity Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–39

A-2.6 Robustness of Results on Local Politics and Violence . . . . . . . . . . A–50

A-2.7 Corruption and Other Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–61

A-2.8 Robustness of Spillover Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–65

A-2.9 Law Enforcement Allocation Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–78

A-2.10 Map of Close PAN Elections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–80

A-2.11 Balance Figures for Pre-Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–82

A-2.12 Balance Figures for the Predicted Homicide Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . A–87

A–1

A-2.13 McCrary Plots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–89

A-2.14 Homicide RD Figures - Robustness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A–92

A-2.15 Homicide RD Figures - Neighbors’ Homicide Rates . . . . . . . . . . .A–108

A-2.16 Robustness to Varying the Length of the Analysis Period . . . . . . .A–110

A-2.17 Spillovers Model Placeo Check . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A–113

A-2.18 Law Enforcement Allocation Figure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A–115

A–2

A-1 Estimation appendix

A-1.1 The shortest paths problem

The model setup is as follows: let N = (V , E) be an undirected graph representing the

Mexican road network, which consists of sets V of vertices and E of edges. Traffickers

transport drugs across the network from a set of origins to a set of destinations. Trafficking

paths connect origins to destinations. Formally, a trafficking path is an ordered set of nodes

such that an edge exists between two successive nodes. Each edge e ∈ E has a cost function

ce(le), where le is the length of the edge in kilometers. The total cost to traverse path p is

w(p) =∑

e∈p ce(le), which equals the length of the path. Close PAN victories remove edges

from the network. Let Pi denote the set of all possible paths between producing municipality

i and the United States. Each trafficker solves:

minp∈Pi

w(p) (A-1)

This problem, which amounts to choosing the shortest path between each producing munici-

pality and the nearest U.S. point of entry, can be solved using Dijkstra’s algorithm (Dijkstra,

1959).

A-1.2 Solving for the congested trafficking equilibrium

An equilibrium routing pattern must satisfy the following conditions (Wardrop, 1952):

1. For all p, p′ ∈ Pi with xp, xp′ > 0,∑

e∈p′ ce(xe, le) =∑

e∈p ce(xe, le).

2. For all p, p′ ∈ Pi with xp > 0 xp′ = 0,∑

e∈p′ ce(xe, le) ≥∑

e∈p ce(xe, le).

where xp is total flows on path p, xe is total flows on edge e, and ce(·) is the cost to traverse

edge e. The equilibrium routing pattern satisfying these conditions is the Nash equilibrium

of the game.

Beckmann, McGuire, and Winsten (1956) proved that the equilibrium can be character-

ized by a straightforward optimization problem. Specifically, the routing pattern x∗ is an

equilibrium if and only if it is a solution to:

min∑e∈E

∫ xe

0

ce(z)dz (A-2)

s.t.∑

p∈P|e∈p

xp = xe ∀e ∈ E (A-3)

A–3

∑p∈Pi

xp = 1 ∀i = 1, 2, . . . , ∀p ∈ P (A-4)

xp ≥ 0 ∀p ∈ P (A-5)

The first constraint requires that the flow of traffic on the paths traversing an edge sum

to the total flow of traffic on that edge, the second constraint requires that supply (equal

to 1 for each producer i) be conserved, and the third constraint requires flows to be non-

negative. By Weierstrass’s Theorem, a solution to the above problem exists, and thus a

trafficking equilibrium always exists.

While this problem does not have a closed-form solution, for a given network and spec-

ification of the congestion costs ce(·) it can be solved using numerical methods. I use the

Frank-Wolfe algorithm (1956), which generalizes Dantzig’s simplex algorithm to non-linear

programming problems. The Frank-Wolfe algorithm alternates between solving a linear pro-

gram defined by a tangential approximation of the objective function in (A-2) and a line

search that minimizes the objective over the line segment connecting the current iterate

and the solution to the linear programming problem. The linear subproblem determines the

direction of movement, and the line search selects the optimal step length in that direction.

At the end of each iteration, the current iterate is updated to the xe selected by the line

search problem. The linear subproblem defines a lower bound on the optimal value, which

is used in the termination criterion.

The tangential approximation to the objective given in (A-2) is a simple shortest paths

problem in which the costs to traverse each edge ce(xe, le) are evaluated at the current

iterate’s flows xke . In other words, the linear subproblem finds the shortest path between

each producing municipality and the nearest U.S. point of entry given edge costs of ce(xke , le)

at iteration k. The linear subproblem is solved using Dijkstra’s algorithm (Dijkstra, 1959).

The line search problem is solved using the golden section method (Kiefer, 1953).

A-1.3 Moments

In the baseline congestion model, the moments match the mean model predicted and observed

confiscations at ports, at terrestrial bordering crossings, and on interior edges. They also

match the interactions between port confiscations and the port’s container capacity, between

terrestrial crossing confiscations and the crossing’s number of commercial lanes, between

interior confiscations and the length of the interior edge, and between interior confiscations

and the length of the detour required to circumvent the edge. Finally, the moment conditions

match the model predicted and observed variance of confiscations across U.S. points of entry

A–4

and across interior edges. For the congestion models reported in the appendix that estimate

six separate crossing congestion parameters, the moment conditions match mean model

predicted and observed confiscations for each of the six separate groups of crossings, instead

of matching mean confiscations for all ports and for all terrestrial border crossings.

The model with DTO territorial costs and no congestion matches mean confiscations,

mean confiscations interacted with DTO presence, and mean confiscations interacted with

the share of Mexico’s territory (if any) that the municipality’s DTO controls. The model

that includes congestion matches the same moments as in the baseline congestion model as

well as the two moments that interact confiscations and DTO presence/share.

The model with a PAN cost parameter and no congestion matches the mean monthly

change in confiscations in municipalities that do not have a PAN mayor elected during

the Calderon period. The sample is limited to these municipalities because it is plausible

that enforcement remains constant. The model also matches the mean monthly change in

confiscations in municipalities bordering a municipality with a PAN mayor elected during

the sample period. These municipalities are useful for estimating the PAN cost parameter

because drug traffic is often diverted to them. The model that includes both a PAN cost

parameter and congestion matches the same moments as in the baseline congestion model,

as well as the two moments that summarize changes in confiscations.

A-1.4 Maximizing the simulated method of moments objective

function

The simulated method of moments (SMM) estimator θ minimizes a weighted quadratic form:

θ = argminθ∈Θ

1

M

[M∑m=1

g(Xm, θ)

]′Σ

[M∑m=1

g(Xm, θ)

](A-6)

where g(·) is an estimate of the true moment function, M is the number of municipalities in

the sample, and Σ is an L x L positive semi-definite weighting matrix.

The SMM objective function is not globally convex, and thus standard gradient methods

may perform poorly. Instead, I use simulated annealing (Kirkpatrick, Gelatt, and Vecchi,

1983), which is more suitable for problems that lack a globally convex objective.1 Simulated

annealing is a non-gradient iterative method that differs from gradient methods in permitting

movements that increase the objective function being minimized.

Given a value of θs for the congestion parameters at the sth iteration, the algo-

1See Goffe, Ferrier, and Rogers (1994) for a comprehensive review and Cameron and Trivedi (2005, p.347) for a textbook treatment.

A–5

rithm perturbs the jth component of θs so as to obtain a new trial value of θ∗s =

θs + [0 . . . 0 (λsrs) 0 . . . 0]′, where λs is a pre-specified step length and rs is a draw from

a uniform distribution on (−1, 1). The method sets θs+1 = θ∗s if the perturbation decreases

the objective function. If θ∗s does not decrease the objective, it is accepted with probability1

1+exp( ∆Ts

), where ∆ is the change in value of the objective and Ts is a positive scaling pa-

rameter called the temperature. Uphill moves are accepted with a probability that declines

with the change in the objective function and increases with the temperature.2 The temper-

ature is set to T0 at the initial iteration and updated according to the temperature schedule

Tk = T0/k. The annealing parameter k is initially set equal to the iteration number. If after

a given number of iterations convergence has not been achieved, k is set to some value less

than the iteration number so that the temperature increases and the algorithm can move

to a potentially more promising region of the parameter space. The dependency between

the temperature and acceptance probability is such that the current solution changes almost

randomly when T is large and increasingly downhill as T goes to zero.

The algorithm runs until the average change in value of the objective function over a

given number of iterations is less than some small number ε. I choose the starting value

using a grid search over the parameter space. Results (available upon request) are robust to

the use of different starting values and annealing parameters, with these choices primarily

affecting the speed with which the algorithm converges.

A-1.5 Inference

Predicted confiscations on a given edge are not independent of predicted confiscations else-

where in the network, introducing spatial dependence. Conley (1999) explores method of

moments estimators for data exhibiting spatial dependence, showing that the sufficient condi-

tions for consistency and normality require the dependence amongst observations to die away

as the distance between the observations increases. This condition appears likely to hold

in the current application, since drugs are typically trafficked to relatively close crossings.

With the presence of spatial dependence, the asymptotic covariance matrix Λ is replaced by

a weighted average of spatial autocovariance terms with zero weights for observations farther

than a certain distance (Conley, 1999):

λ =1

M

∑m

∑s∈Munm

[g(Xm, θ)g(Xm, θ)′] (A-7)

where Munm is the set of all municipalities within 250 kilometers of municipality m, in-

2Since both ∆ and Ts are positive, the probably of acceptance is between zero and one half.

A–6

cluding municipality m. The implicit assumption is that the correlation between observations

is negligible for municipalities beyond 250 kilometers.

A-1.6 The government’s resource allocation problem

To apply the trafficking framework to policy analysis, I embed the trafficking model in

a Stackelberg network game (Bas and Srikant, 2002). In the first stage, the government

(a single player) decides how to allocate law enforcement resources to edges in the road

network, subject to a budget constraint. The edges selected by the government are referred

to as vital edges. Traffickers’ costs of traversing an edge increase when law enforcement

resources are placed on it. The network model best predicts the diversion of drug traffic

following PAN victories when I assume that they increase trafficking costs by a factor of

three. Thus, I assume that each police checkpoint increases the effective length of selected

edges by 3×9 = 27 kilometers, where 9 kilometers is the average edge length in the network.3

With more information on the resources deployed in PAN crackdowns, it would be possible

to construct more precise estimates of the costs that law enforcement resources impose on

traffickers.

In the second stage, traffickers simultaneously select least cost routes to the U.S. The

government’s objective is to maximize the total costs that traffickers incur, and each trafficker

minimizes his own costs. The scenario in which traffickers respond to the government’s action

by choosing the shortest path to the U.S. is a special case in which congestion costs are zero.

Ball, Golden, and Vohra (1989) showed that this special case is NP hard, and thus it follows

that the more general problem is also NP-hard. That is, the time required to solve for the

optimum increases quickly as the size of the problem grows. Even if we focused on the

simpler model with no congestion costs, solving for the optimum using an exhaustive search

would have an order of complexity of O(V !), where V (the number of vertices) equals 13,969,

and thus would take trillions of years to run.

Developing algorithms for problems similar to the one described here is an active area

of operations research and computer science. For example, researchers have examined the

problem of identifying vital edges in critical infrastructure networks, such as oil pipelines

and electricity grids, so that these edges can be better defended against terrorist attacks

and the systems made more robust (see, for example, Brown, Carlyle, Salmeron and Wood,

2005). To the best of my knowledge there are currently no known algorithms for solving the

3An alternative assumption is that police checkpoints multiply the effective length of edges by a givenfactor. However, this would imply that checkpoints increase the costs of longer edges by more than theyincrease the costs of shorter edges. The multiplicative costs assumption appears reasonable for PAN crack-downs, as larger municipalities have more police and are likely to receive larger federal police and militarycontingents, but the assumption appears less appropriate for police checkpoints.

A–7

government’s resource allocation problem that are both exact (guaranteed to converge to

optimality) and feasible given the size of the network, either for the network with congestion

or for the simpler problem in which congestion costs are zero.4 Developing a fast, exact

algorithm for this problem is a challenging endeavor that is significantly beyond the scope

of the current study. Thus, I instead use the following approximate heuristic to solve for the

k vital edges:

1. For each of k iterations, calculate how total trafficking costs respond to individuallyincreasing the edge lengths of each of the N most trafficked edges in the network.

2. Assign each element of this set of N edges a rank, m = 1 . . . N , such that the removalof edge m = 1 would increase trafficking costs the most, the removal of edge m = 2would increase trafficking costs the second most . . . and the removal of edge m = Nwould increase trafficking costs the least.

3. Increase the effective length of the edge with m = 1 by a pre-specified amount.

4. Terminate if k iterations have been completed and return to step 1 otherwise.

Appendix Figure A-28 plots the results of this exercise with k = 25 and N = 250,

highlighting municipalities that contain a vital edge in yellow. The average monthly drug

trade-related homicide rate between 2007 and 2009 is plotted in the background. Allocating

police checkpoints to these 25 edges increases the total length of the network by 0.043 percent

and increases total trafficking costs by 17 percent. Appendix Table A-61 documents that

results are similar when I instead: a) choose values of N ranging from 100 to 500, b) alternate

in step 3 between selecting the edges with m = 1 and m = 2, c) alternate in step 3 between

selecting the edges with m = 1, m = 2, and m = 3, and d) remove the edge with m = 2,

m = 3, m = 4, or m = 5 when k = 1 and remove the edge with m = 1 when k = 2 . . . 25.

4Malik, Mittal, and Gupta (1989) suggest an algorithm for finding k vital edges in the shortest pathproblem, but unfortunately it is theoretically flawed (see Israeli and Wood (2002) for a discussion). Themost closely related work is by Israeli and Wood (2002), who develop an efficient algorithm for solvingfor k vital edges in the context of a shortest path problem on a directed graph with a single origin anddestination. Even if the algorithm, which involves considerable mathematical machinery, could be extendedto this paper’s undirected graph with multiple origins, it is unlikely to be feasible on a network of the sizeexamined here and does not accommodate congestion costs. Existing vital edge algorithms focus on shortestpath or max flow problems (i.e. Lim and Smith, 2007) , and to the best of my knowledge researchers havenot examined the vital edge problem in a congested network.

A–8

References

Acemoglu, D. and M. Dell (2009): “Beyond Neoclassical Growth: Technology, Hu-man Capital, Institutions and Within-Country Differences,” American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics, 2, 169–188.

Ball, M., B. Golden, and R. Vohra (1989): “Finding the most vital arcs in a network,”Operations Research Letters, 8, 73–76.

Beckmann, M., C. McGuire, and C. Winston (1956): Studies in the Economics ofTransportation, Yale University Press.

Brown, G., M. Carlyle, J. Salmeron, and K. Wood (2005): “Analyzing the vul-nerability of critical infrastructure to attack and planning defenses,” INFORMS tutorialsin operations research, 102–123.

Cameron, A. (2005): Microeconometrics: methods and applications, Cambridge universitypress.

Dijkstra, E. (1959): “A note on two problems in connection with graphs,” Numerischemathematik, 1, 269–271.

Goffe, W., G. Ferrier, and J. Rogers (1994): “Global optimization of statisticalfunctions with simulated annealing,” Journal of Econometrics, 60, 65–99.

Israeli, E. and R. Wood (2002): “Shortest-path network interdiction,” Networks, 40,97–111.

Kiefer, J. (1953): “Sequential minimax search for a maximum,” in Proceedings of theAmerican Mathematical Society, vol. 4, 502–506.

Kirkpatrick, S., C. Gelatt, and M. Vecchi (1983): “Optimization by simulatedannealing,” Science, 220, 671–680.

Lim, C. and J. Smith (2007): “Algorithms for discrete and continuous multicommodityflow network interdiction problems,” IIE Transactions, 39, 15–26.

Malik, K., A. Mittal, and S. Gupta (1989): “The k most vital arcs in the shortestpath problem,” Operations Research Letters, 8, 223–227.

Wardrop, J. (1952): “Some Theoretical Aspects of Road Traffic Research,” Proceedings ofthe Institution of Civil Engineers, 1, 325–378.

A–9

A-2 Additional Results

A-2.1 Robustness of Balance Checks

A–10

Table A-1: Baseline Characteristics (4% vote spread, 2007-2008)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

Own municipality Neighboring muns.

5% vote spread t-stat on t-stat on t-stat onPAN PAN means RD RD RD RDwon lost difference estimate estimate estimate estimate

Political characteristicsMun. taxes per capita (2005) 64.52 50.13 (0.96) 53.89 (0.89) 8.76 (0.28)Turnout 0.61 0.59 (0.58) 0.04 (0.56) 0.01 (0.13)PAN incumbent 0.26 0.29 (-0.34) 0.07 (0.27) 0.07 (0.63)PRD incumbent 0.16 0.13 (0.54) -0.12 (-0.65) -0.13 (-0.95)% alternations (1976-2006) 0.31 0.31 (0.08) 0.06 (0.64) 0.00 (0.07)PRI never lost (1976-2006) 0.08 0.08 (0.03) -0.21 (-1.52) -0.10 (-0.96)Demographic characteristicsPopulation (2005) 6.48 5.12 (0.45) 2.47 (0.24) -3.54 (-0.93)Population density (2005) 197.63 210.49 (-0.16) -615.53** (-1.99) -376.16** (-2.02)Migrants per capita (2005) 0.02 0.02 (-0.80) 0.00 (-0.54) -0.01 (-1.42)Economic characteristicsIncome per capita (2005) 4.37 4.40 (-0.06) -0.56 (-0.37) 0.61 (0.82)Malnutrition (2005) 32.18 31.52 (0.20) 2.06 (0.23) -7.76 (-1.20)Mean years schooling (2005) 6.23 6.17 (0.22) -1.24 (-1.44) -0.23 (-0.42)Infant mortality (2005) 22.35 21.97 (0.30) 1.80 (0.43) -1.59 (-0.69)HH w/o access to sewage (2005) 8.05 8.23 (-0.13) -2.43 (-0.73) -5.46* (-1.74)HH w/o access to water (2005) 17.15 15.93 (0.33) -15.69* (-1.84) -11.22 (-1.48)Marginality index (2005) -0.16 -0.12 (-0.26) -0.06 (-0.13) -0.44 (-1.25)Road network characteristicsDetour length (km) 29.40 24.16 (0.23) -76.85* (-1.90) -33.17* (-1.71)Road density 0.15 0.13 (0.80) -0.10 (-1.61) -0.11** (-2.01)Distance U.S. (km) 708.09 765.78 (-1.05) -104.77 (-0.59) -120.37 (-0.68)Geographic characteristicsElevation (m) 1365.84 1398.81 (-0.22) 426.08 (0.84) 392.43 (0.84)Slope (degrees) 3.65 3.38 (0.57) 0.13 (0.10) -0.24 (-0.23)Surface area (km2) 1951.44 535.23 (1.59) 1048.62 (0.68) 53.41 (0.05)Average min. temperature, C 7.29 7.76 (-0.46) -4.20 (-1.20) -3.79 (-1.15)Average max. temperature, C 22.52 23.22 (-0.95) -3.82 (-1.46) -3.66 (-1.56)Average precipitation, cm 1160.13 1056.88 (0.78) 21.76 (0.07) 11.08 (0.03)Observations 61 62 123 123

Notes: Data on population, population density, mean years of schooling, and migrants per capita are from II Conteode Poblacion y Vivienda, INEGI (National Institute of Statistics and Geography, 2005). Data on municipal taxcollection are from Sistema de Cuentas Municipales, INEGI. Data on housecold access to sewage and water are fromCONAPO (National Population Council) (2005). Data on malnutrition are from CONEVAL (National Council forEvaluating Social Development Policy), Indice de Reazgo Social (2005). Data on infant mortality are from PNUDMexico (UN Development Program, 2005). The marginality index is from CONAPO (2005). Data on distance to theU.S. and other road network characteristics are from the author’s own calculations. Electoral data are from MexicoElectoral-Banamex and electoral results published by the Electoral Tribunals of each state. For 11 states, data onthe total number of eligible voters, required to calculate turnout, are not reported. The geographic characteristics arefrom Acemoglu and Dell (2009). Columns (1) through (5) examine these variables for municipalities with closeelections in 2007-2008. Column (6) and (7) examine these characteristics for municipalities that border amunicipality with a close election in 2007-2008. Column (3) reports the t-statistic on the difference in means betweenmunicipalities where the PAN barely won and where they barely lost. Columns (4) and (6) report the coefficient onPAN win from a standard RD specification where the respective characteristic is used as the dependent variable, andcolumns (5) and (7) report the respective t-statistic. * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.


(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)



Political characteristicsMun. taxes per capita (2005) 67.85 48.18 (1.13) 41.17 (0.54) -31.11 (-0.70)Turnout 0.60 0.60 (0.27) 0.06 (0.70) 0.00 (0.04)PAN incumbent 0.23 0.30 (-0.82) -0.10 (-0.33) 0.00 (0.02)PRD incumbent 0.21 0.11 (1.32) 0.08 (0.37) -0.04 (-0.27)% alternations (1976-2006) 0.32 0.30 (0.51) 0.11 (1.00) -0.03 (-0.43)PRI never lost (1976-2006) 0.08 0.11 (-0.41) -0.24 (-1.64) -0.03 (-0.28)Demographic characteristicsPopulation (2005) 7.87 5.64 (0.58) -2.39 (-0.18) -8.50 (-1.55)Population density (2005) 218.11 249.33 (-0.30) -836.07** (-2.23) -505.72** (-2.31)Migrants per capita (2005) 0.02 0.02 (-0.50) -0.01 (-0.99) -0.01** (-2.08)Economic characteristicsIncome per capita (2005) 4.46 4.43 (0.05) -0.95 (-0.50) -0.18 (-0.19)Malnutrition (2005) 30.77 31.24 (-0.12) 1.87 (0.18) -3.61 (-0.46)Mean years schooling (2005) 6.39 6.24 (0.49) -1.59 (-1.54) -0.82 (-1.26)Infant mortality (2005) 22.00 22.03 (-0.02) 2.05 (0.42) -1.04 (-0.39)HH w/o access to sewage (2005) 8.33 8.06 (0.16) -3.42 (-0.84) -5.21 (-1.42)HH w/o access to water (2005) 18.75 16.24 (0.56) -11.93 (-1.28) -10.01 (-1.14)Marginality index (2005) -0.20 -0.12 (-0.41) 0.21 (0.38) -0.11 (-0.26)Road network characteristicsDetour length (km) 36.72 32.31 (0.15) -86.28 (-1.63) -58.93** (-2.17)Road density 0.15 0.15 (0.27) -0.19** (-2.50) -0.16*** (-2.65)Distance U.S. (km) 680.18 770.18 (-1.57) -67.33 (-0.32) -79.38 (-0.38)Geographic characteristicsElevation (m) 1439.71 1380.10 (0.34) 432.09 (0.76) 256.36 (0.49)Slope (degrees) 3.57 3.46 (0.20) -0.24 (-0.17) -0.43 (-0.37)Surface area (km2) 2246.80 448.90 (1.60) 284.59 (0.11) -393.16 (-0.23)Average min. temperature, C 6.62 8.00 (-1.22) -4.89 (-1.20) -3.64 (-0.95)Average max. temperature, C 22.03 23.24 (-1.49) -3.86 (-1.25) -3.06 (-1.11)Average precipitation, cm 1106.39 1071.97 (0.24) 61.04 (0.16) 86.84 (0.23)Observations 48 46 94 94

Notes: Data on population, population density, mean years of schooling, and migrants per capita are from II Conteode Poblacion y Vivienda, INEGI (National Institute of Statistics and Geography, 2005). Data on municipal taxcollection are from Sistema de Cuentas Municipales, INEGI. Data on housecold access to sewage and water are fromCONAPO (National Population Council) (2005). Data on malnutrition are from CONEVAL (National Council forEvaluating Social Development Policy), Indice de Reazgo Social (2005). Data on infant mortality are from PNUDMexico (UN Development Program, 2005). The marginality index is from CONAPO (2005). Data on distance to theU.S. and other road network characteristics are from the authors own calculations. Electoral data are from MexicoElectoral-Banamex and electoral results published by the Electoral Tribunals of each state. For 11 states, data onthe total number of eligible voters, required to calculate turnout, are not reported. The geographic characteristics arefrom Acemoglu and Dell (2009). Columns (1) through (5) examine these variables for municipalities with closeelections in 2007-2008. Column (6) and (7) examine these characteristics for municipalities that border amunicipality with a close election in 2007-2008. Column (3) reports the t-statistic on the difference in means betweenmunicipalities where the PAN barely won and where they barely lost. Columns (4) and (6) report the coefficient onPAN win from a standard RD specification where the respective characteristic is used as the dependent variable, andcolumns (5) and (7) report the respective t-statistic. * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.


(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)



Political characteristicsMun. taxes per capita (2005) 82.31 50.58 (1.32) 125.10 (1.24) 6.69 (0.12)Turnout 0.60 0.58 (0.48) 0.06 (0.62) 0.05 (0.73)PAN incumbent 0.27 0.28 (-0.03) 0.06 (0.14) 0.03 (0.19)PRD incumbent 0.15 0.14 (0.15) -0.13 (-0.51) 0.00 (-0.01)% alternations (1976-2006) 0.32 0.30 (0.28) 0.07 (0.51) -0.03 (-0.33)PRI never lost (1976-2006) 0.09 0.14 (-0.57) -0.26 (-1.42) 0.04 (0.23)Demographic characteristicsPopulation (2005) 10.06 5.43 (0.89) 5.54 (0.30) 3.71 (0.38)Population density (2005) 257.93 313.69 (-0.36) -813.01 (-1.52) -374.10 (-1.26)Migrants per capita (2005) 0.02 0.02 (-0.19) 0.00 (0.07) 0.00 (-0.53)Economic characteristicsIncome per capita (2005) 4.65 4.88 (-0.32) 0.61 (0.23) 0.38 (0.32)Malnutrition (2005) 30.11 26.33 (0.83) -5.51 (-0.39) -13.74 (-1.48)Mean years schooling (2005) 6.49 6.58 (-0.24) -0.93 (-0.66) -0.07 (-0.08)Infant mortality (2005) 22.25 20.90 (0.74) 4.88 (0.71) -0.10 (-0.03)HH w/o access to sewage (2005) 8.17 7.22 (0.49) -1.15 (-0.21) -8.01 (-1.54)HH w/o access to water (2005) 17.49 14.63 (0.53) 4.77 (0.42) -7.35 (-0.61)Marginality index (2005) -0.27 -0.28 (0.03) 0.28 (0.37) -0.37 (-0.70)Road network characteristicsDetour length (km) 45.17 49.45 (-0.10) 8.21 (0.16) -3.35 (-0.07)Road density 0.17 0.15 (0.48) -0.16 (-1.49) -0.06 (-0.74)Distance U.S. (km) 654.64 740.40 (-1.13) -262.07 (-0.99) -263.20 (-1.01)Geographic characteristicsElevation (m) 1473.84 1299.94 (0.81) 62.24 (0.08) -132.31 (-0.20)Slope (degrees) 3.55 3.14 (0.58) -1.22 (-0.63) -1.17 (-0.70)Surface area (km2) 2788.02 528.14 (1.39) 3712.91* (1.69) 4011.75 (1.56)Average min. temperature, C 6.26 7.94 (-1.21) -5.95 (-1.12) -4.24 (-0.84)Average max. temperature, C 21.58 23.32 (-1.72*) -5.68 (-1.43) -4.67 (-1.30)Average precipitation, cm 1065.19 1029.42 (0.21) 3.28 (0.01) 96.62 (0.20)Observations 33 29 62 62


Table A-4: Baseline Characteristics (13.3% vote spread, 2007-2008)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)



Political characteristicsMun. taxes per capita (2005) 66.59 58.11 (0.23) 38.85 (1.28) 42.14* (1.65)Turnout 0.61 0.59 (0.99) 0.01 (0.15) 0.01 (0.20)PAN incumbent 0.25 0.32 (-0.61) 0.00 (0.04) 0.02 (0.24)PRD incumbent 0.14 0.13 (0.63) 0.06 (0.58) -0.06 (-0.91)% alternations (1976-2006) 0.32 0.30 (-0.01) 0.02 (0.41) -0.04 (-1.20)PRI never lost (1976-2006) 0.12 0.10 (-0.04) -0.12 (-1.17) -0.03 (-0.44)Demographic characteristicsPopulation (2005) 5.28 4.34 (0.35) 4.13 (0.70) 1.88 (0.73)Population density (2005) 207.02 195.96 (0.42) -197.74 (-1.06) -69.11 (-0.63)Migrants per capita (2005) 0.02 0.02 (-0.69) 0.00 (-0.27) 0.00 (0.64)Economic characteristicsIncome per capita (2005) 4.28 4.36 (-0.53) -0.12 (-0.15) 0.47 (0.89)Malnutrition (2005) 33.08 31.79 (0.53) 0.24 (0.04) -4.22 (-0.97)Mean years schooling (2005) 6.22 6.11 (0.32) -0.17 (-0.36) 0.13 (0.35)Infant mortality (2005) 22.56 22.54 (0.22) 1.14 (0.50) 0.61 (0.38)HH w/o access to sewage (2005) 8.29 9.04 (0.05) 0.72 (0.32) -0.63 (-0.33)HH w/o access to water (2005) 17.52 18.48 (-0.62) 1.80 (0.30) -2.28 (-0.52)Marginality index (2005) -0.10 -0.05 (-0.23) -0.08 (-0.27) -0.22 (-0.95)Road network characteristicsDetour length (km) 22.65 22.29 (0.19) -14.57 (-0.35) 6.21 (0.36)Road density 0.16 0.14 (0.98) -0.02 (-0.42) -0.03 (-0.76)Distance U.S. (km) 732.16 759.47 (-0.55) -127.59 (-1.37) -131.39 (-1.41)Geographic characteristicsElevation (m) 1363.85 1367.75 (0.26) 327.64 (1.19) 273.58 (1.08)Slope (degrees) 3.60 3.32 (1.02) 0.25 (0.29) -0.02 (-0.02)Surface area (km2) 1613.60 748.56 (1.36) 2422.76* (1.73) 1463.56* (1.76)Average min. temperature, C 7.61 7.79 (-0.46) -3.41* (-1.92) -3.04* (-1.82)Average max. temperature, C 22.64 23.19 (-0.53) -2.54* (-1.91) -2.38** (-1.99)Average precipitation, cm 1217.80 1112.02 (0.65) -55.13 (-0.28) -62.91 (-0.32)Observations 168 212 380 380



(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)



Political characteristicsMun. taxes per capita (2005) 76.24 85.61 (-0.69) -27.04 (-0.38) 7.28 (0.17)Turnout 0.67 0.64 (1.54) -0.03 (-0.50) -0.04 (-0.90)PAN incumbent 0.37 0.37 (0.12) 0.08 (0.51) 0.10 (1.13)PRD incumbent 0.11 0.10 (0.37) 0.09 (0.82) -0.05 (-0.67)% alternations (1976-2006) 0.27 0.29 (-1.04) 0.04 (0.85) 0.04 (1.34)PRI never lost (1976-2006) 0.13 0.10 (0.90) -0.09 (-0.78) -0.16** (-2.42)Demographic characteristicsPopulation (2005) 3.74 6.11 (-1.43) 1.83 (0.36) -3.00 (-1.53)Population density (2005) 136.31 226.96 (-1.32) -242.43 (-1.46) -192.40 (-1.57)Migrants per capita (2005) 0.02 0.02 (-0.15) 0.01 (1.41) 0.00 (0.53)Economic characteristicsIncome per capita (2005) 4.57 4.94 (-1.58) -0.58 (-0.69) -0.09 (-0.17)Malnutrition (2005) 27.45 26.52 (0.50) 2.30 (0.41) -3.57 (-0.83)Mean years schooling (2005) 6.27 6.41 (-0.90) -0.49 (-0.97) -0.18 (-0.51)Infant mortality (2005) 22.76 22.08 (0.79) -0.30 (-0.11) 0.05 (0.03)HH w/o access to sewage (2005) 11.11 10.55 (0.41) -1.47 (-0.31) -1.27 (-0.41)HH w/o access to water (2005) 13.98 14.43 (-0.22) -5.09 (-0.97) -2.77 (-0.62)Marginality index (2005) -0.29 -0.30 (0.17) -0.12 (-0.41) -0.17 (-0.71)Road network characteristicsDetour length (km) 17.67 17.46 (0.02) -21.32 (-0.94) -3.57 (-0.36)Road density 0.13 0.13 (0.01) -0.04 (-1.02) -0.02 (-0.63)Distance U.S. (km) 776.52 781.72 (-0.10) -111.11 (-0.72) -113.45 (-0.74)Geographic characteristicsElevation (m) 1276.19 1264.79 (0.12) 401.26 (1.46) 406.91 (1.57)Slope (degrees) 3.10 2.84 (0.92) 0.29 (0.31) 0.15 (0.21)Surface area (km2) 1372.19 1084.88 (0.73) 911.82 (1.14) 422.22 (0.60)Average min. temperature, C 7.66 7.83 (-0.28) -3.01 (-1.56) -2.86 (-1.54)Average max. temperature, C 23.22 23.22 0.00 -2.42 (-1.59) -2.47* (-1.78)Average precipitation, cm 948.41 941.35 (0.11) -72.78 (-0.39) -61.14 (-0.34)Observations 155 155 310 310

Notes: Data on population, population density, mean years of schooling, and migrants per capita are from II Conteode Poblacion y Vivienda, INEGI (National Institute of Statistics and Geography, 2005). Data on municipal taxcollection are from Sistema de Cuentas Municipales, INEGI. Data on housecold access to sewage and water are fromCONAPO (National Population Council) (2005). Data on malnutrition are from CONEVAL (National Council forEvaluating Social Development Policy), Indice de Reazgo Social (2005). Data on infant mortality are from PNUDMexico (UN Development Program, 2005). The marginality index is from CONAPO (2005). Data on distance to theU.S. and other road network characteristics are from the authors own calculations. Electoral data are from MexicoElectoral-Banamex and electoral results published by the Electoral Tribunals of each state. For 11 states, data onthe total number of eligible voters, required to calculate turnout, are not reported. The geographic characteristics arefrom Acemoglu and Dell (2009). Columns (1) through (5) examine these variables for municipalities with closeelections. Column (6) and (7) examine these characteristics for municipalities that border a municipality with a closeelection. Column (3) reports the t-statistic on the difference in means between municipalities where the PAN barelywon and where they barely lost. Columns (4) and (6) report the coefficient on PAN win from a standard RDspecification where the respective characteristic is used as the dependent variable, and columns (5) and (7) reportthe respective t-statistic. * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.


(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)



Political characteristicsMun. taxes per capita (2005) 79.03 78.40 (0.04) -41.42 (-0.47) 38.88 (0.80)Turnout 0.67 0.65 (0.53) -0.06 (-0.75) -0.04 (-0.70)PAN incumbent 0.36 0.36 (0.06) -0.01 (-0.07) 0.08 (0.77)PRD incumbent 0.11 0.08 (0.72) 0.01 (0.13) -0.07 (-0.84)% alternations (1976-2006) 0.27 0.29 (-0.73) 0.06 (1.09) 0.04 (1.21)PRI never lost (1976-2006) 0.14 0.10 (1.01) -0.04 (-0.34) -0.16** (-2.20)Demographic characteristicsPopulation (2005) 4.14 4.79 (-0.39) 1.65 (0.28) -2.04 (-0.86)Population density (2005) 118.32 157.30 (-0.88) -318.49* (-1.82) -225.44* (-1.96)Migrants per capita (2005) 0.02 0.02 (-0.08) 0.00 (0.71) 0.00 (0.21)Economic characteristicsIncome per capita (2005) 4.59 4.82 (-0.85) -0.40 (-0.40) 0.42 (0.65)Malnutrition (2005) 27.22 26.91 (0.15) 0.88 (0.13) -6.53 (-1.38)Mean years schooling (2005) 6.29 6.34 (-0.32) -0.58 (-0.98) 0.00 0.00Infant mortality (2005) 22.74 22.27 (0.51) -0.14 (-0.05) -1.76 (-0.98)HH w/o access to sewage (2005) 10.06 11.48 (-0.95) -3.13 (-0.55) -3.72 (-1.03)HH w/o access to water (2005) 14.34 13.24 (0.49) -8.96 (-1.54) -5.65 (-1.13)Marginality index (2005) -0.31 -0.26 (-0.42) -0.21 (-0.58) -0.38 (-1.40)Road network characteristicsDetour length (km) 20.58 16.63 (0.35) -35.07* (-1.70) -8.45 (-0.84)Road density 0.13 0.13 (0.40) -0.04 (-1.13) -0.04 (-1.16)Distance U.S. (km) 763.38 816.01 (-0.89) -63.01 (-0.35) -69.21 (-0.38)Geographic characteristicsElevation (m) 1249.72 1212.67 (0.34) 472.14 (1.49) 476.90 (1.60)Slope (degrees) 3.22 2.87 (1.09) 0.21 (0.20) 0.08 (0.11)Surface area (km2) 1513.15 1028.66 (1.04) 818.71 (0.98) 454.31 (0.55)Average min. temperature, C 7.71 8.26 (-0.78) -3.18 (-1.39) -3.08 (-1.41)Average max. temperature, C 23.22 23.49 (-0.54) -2.68 (-1.49) -2.73* (-1.67)Average precipitation, cm 966.66 925.62 (0.57) -21.92 (-0.11) -10.31 (-0.05)Observations 129 122 251 251



(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)



Political characteristicsMun. taxes per capita (2005) 85.90 80.76 (0.26) -72.69 (-0.65) 10.60 (0.19)Turnout 0.64 0.64 (0.06) -0.05 (-0.53) -0.03 (-0.56)PAN incumbent 0.39 0.35 (0.53) -0.02 (-0.10) 0.03 (0.29)PRD incumbent 0.14 0.07 (1.61) 0.09 (0.73) -0.03 (-0.36)% alternations (1976-2006) 0.27 0.28 (-0.57) 0.04 (0.63) 0.02 (0.40)PRI never lost (1976-2006) 0.15 0.11 (0.76) 0.07 (0.51) -0.10 (-1.19)Demographic characteristicsPopulation (2005) 5.11 4.28 (0.40) 0.12 (0.02) -3.91 (-1.28)Population density (2005) 134.39 153.45 (-0.35) -384.00* (-1.88) -259.43** (-2.17)Migrants per capita (2005) 0.02 0.02 (0.66) 0.00 (0.61) 0.00 (-0.48)Economic characteristicsIncome per capita (2005) 4.61 4.80 (-0.56) -0.50 (-0.41) 0.19 (0.25)Malnutrition (2005) 26.86 27.05 (-0.08) -0.93 (-0.12) -5.56 (-1.04)Mean years schooling (2005) 6.38 6.39 (-0.05) -0.57 (-0.82) -0.12 (-0.26)Infant mortality (2005) 22.73 22.56 (0.15) -0.60 (-0.17) -2.05 (-0.99)HH w/o access to sewage (2005) 9.79 11.62 (-1.00) -4.10 (-0.59) -3.25 (-0.78)HH w/o access to water (2005) 15.94 13.88 (0.73) -8.13 (-1.26) -6.57 (-1.13)Marginality index (2005) -0.34 -0.26 (-0.62) -0.17 (-0.40) -0.30 (-0.99)Road network characteristicsDetour length (km) 26.90 19.51 (0.49) -41.76* (-1.73) -20.51 (-1.56)Road density 0.13 0.13 (0.13) -0.07* (-1.66) -0.06* (-1.89)Distance U.S. (km) 679.02 766.78 (-1.42) -11.13 (-0.05) -14.72 (-0.07)Geographic characteristicsElevation (m) 1325.30 1247.59 (0.63) 438.35 (1.22) 379.92 (1.13)Slope (degrees) 3.39 3.02 (0.95) -0.58 (-0.49) -0.35 (-0.41)Surface area (km2) 1729.22 1060.67 (1.08) 674.43 (0.54) 818.35 (0.81)Average min. temperature, C 6.92 7.95 (-1.34) -3.21 (-1.21) -2.73 (-1.08)Average max. temperature, C 22.66 23.24 (-1.01) -2.29 (-1.08) -2.01 (-1.04)Average precipitation, cm 934.10 916.70 (0.21) -11.08 (-0.05) 17.62 (0.08)Observations 95 91 186 186



(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)



Political characteristicsMun. taxes per capita (2005) 98.68 89.03 (0.36) -87.77 (-0.58) -31.19 (-0.38)Turnout 0.63 0.65 (-0.39) -0.04 (-0.35) 0.00 (0.05)PAN incumbent 0.42 0.37 (0.54) 0.16 (0.59) 0.07 (0.54)PRD incumbent 0.12 0.08 (0.87) -0.08 (-0.66) -0.03 (-0.30)% alternations (1976-2006) 0.27 0.27 (-0.18) -0.02 (-0.30) -0.02 (-0.49)PRI never lost (1976-2006) 0.15 0.14 (0.25) 0.10 (0.53) -0.02 (-0.19)Demographic characteristicsPopulation (2005) 5.82 4.15 (0.62) 0.55 (0.06) -4.98 (-1.31)Population density (2005) 149.18 170.68 (-0.29) -474.11* (-1.81) -289.46* (-1.96)Migrants per capita (2005) 0.02 0.02 (0.80) 0.00 (-0.52) 0.00 (-0.66)Economic characteristicsIncome per capita (2005) 4.72 5.07 (-0.84) -0.34 (-0.22) -0.25 (-0.26)Malnutrition (2005) 26.37 23.99 (0.83) 1.48 (0.15) -4.70 (-0.73)Mean years schooling (2005) 6.42 6.60 (-0.81) -0.50 (-0.56) -0.23 (-0.40)Infant mortality (2005) 23.03 21.86 (0.86) 3.88 (0.80) 1.02 (0.38)HH w/o access to sewage (2005) 9.79 10.95 (-0.52) -0.05 (-0.01) 0.00 (-0.00)HH w/o access to water (2005) 14.48 12.52 (0.61) 2.64 (0.34) -0.33 (-0.05)Marginality index (2005) -0.40 -0.37 (-0.19) 0.07 (0.13) -0.12 (-0.30)Road network characteristicsDetour length (km) 33.06 25.45 (0.36) -10.91 (-0.41) -9.92 (-0.54)Road density 0.14 0.13 (0.59) -0.11** (-2.07) -0.08** (-2.12)Distance U.S. (km) 656.29 752.45 (-1.24) -125.61 (-0.46) -130.07 (-0.48)Geographic characteristicsElevation (m) 1360.00 1170.44 (1.32) 298.37 (0.69) 279.43 (0.69)Slope (degrees) 3.53 2.88 (1.37) -0.09 (-0.06) 0.01 0.00Surface area (km2) 2020.80 1218.50 (0.90) 554.11 (0.37) 1515.10 (1.23)Average min. temperature, C 6.54 8.00 (-1.63) -3.36 (-1.01) -3.13 (-0.98)Average max. temperature, C 22.27 23.35 (-1.58) -2.75 (-1.04) -2.65 (-1.09)Average precipitation, cm 898.98 870.95 (0.29) -38.56 (-0.15) 3.53 (0.01)Observations 65 65 130 130

Notes: Data on population, population density, mean years of schooling, and migrants per capita are from II Conteode Poblacion y Vivienda, INEGI (National Institute of Statistics and Geography, 2005). Data on municipal taxcollection are from Sistema de Cuentas Municipales, INEGI. Data on housecold access to sewage and water are fromCONAPO (National Population Council) (2005). Data on malnutrition are from CONEVAL (National Council forEvaluating Social Development Policy), Indice de Reazgo Social (2005). Data on infant mortality are from PNUDMexico (UN Development Program, 2005). The marginality index is from CONAPO (2005). Data on distance to theU.S. and other road network characteristics are from the author’s own calculations. Electoral data are from MexicoElectoral-Banamex and electoral results published by the Electoral Tribunals of each state. For 11 states, data onthe total number of eligible voters, required to calculate turnout, are not reported. The geographic characteristics arefrom Acemoglu and Dell (2009). Columns (1) through (5) examine these variables for municipalities with closeelections. Column (6) and (7) examine these characteristics for municipalities that border a municipality with a closeelection. Column (3) reports the t-statistic on the difference in means between municipalities where the PAN barelywon and where they barely lost. Columns (4) and (6) report the coefficient on PAN win from a standard RDspecification where the respective characteristic is used as the dependent variable, and columns (5) and (7) reportthe respective t-statistic. * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.

Table A-9: Baseline Characteristics (13.3% vote spread, 2007-2010)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)



Political characteristicsMun. taxes per capita (2005) 85.93 88.95 (-0.69) 6.18 (0.15) 16.05 (0.50)Turnout 0.66 0.64 (1.54) -0.04 (-0.83) -0.04 (-1.25)PAN incumbent 0.38 0.38 (0.12) 0.06 (0.55) 0.04 (0.65)PRD incumbent 0.11 0.10 (0.37) 0.07 (1.04) -0.04 (-0.96)% alternations (1976-2006) 0.28 0.28 (-1.03) -0.01 (-0.19) 0.01 (0.48)PRI never lost (1976-2006) 0.13 0.11 (0.90) 0.03 (0.36) -0.07 (-1.62)Demographic characteristicsPopulation (2005) 4.18 5.39 (-1.43) 2.16 (0.64) -0.77 (-0.43)Population density (2005) 160.46 236.82 (-1.32) -84.14 (-0.76) -48.70 (-0.62)Migrants per capita (2005) 0.02 0.02 (-0.15) 0.00 (1.04) 0.00 (1.45)Economic characteristicsIncome per capita (2005) 4.67 4.86 (-1.58) -0.39 (-0.72) 0.16 (0.39)Malnutrition (2005) 27.54 26.80 (0.49) 0.52 (0.14) -2.73 (-0.91)Mean years schooling (2005) 6.34 6.38 (-0.90) -0.20 (-0.65) -0.01 (-0.03)Infant mortality (2005) 22.57 22.26 (0.78) 0.57 (0.34) 0.39 (0.34)HH w/o access to sewage (2005) 10.52 11.12 (0.41) -3.40 (-1.17) -2.96 (-1.42)HH w/o access to water (2005) 14.08 14.64 (-0.22) 1.68 (0.44) 0.24 (0.08)Marginality index (2005) -0.29 -0.28 (0.17) -0.13 (-0.65) -0.17 (-1.05)Road network characteristicsDetour length (km) 15.85 15.96 (0.02) 2.08 (0.09) 8.38 (0.87)Road density 0.14 0.14 (0.01) -0.01 (-0.40) -0.01 (-0.45)Distance U.S. (km) 777.21 793.53 (-0.10) -130.20 (-1.35) -133.43 (-1.38)Geographic characteristicsElevation (m) 1302.49 1265.37 (0.12) 221.93 (1.22) 239.94 (1.40)Slope (degrees) 3.09 2.91 (0.91) 0.62 (1.01) 0.38 (0.83)Surface area (km2) 1272.77 1003.83 (0.73) 1098.05 (1.30) 681.57 (1.20)Average min. temperature, C 7.68 8.03 (-0.28) -2.10* (-1.78) -2.11* (-1.86)Average max. temperature, C 23.20 23.48 0.00 -1.39 (-1.50) -1.53* (-1.82)Average precipitation, cm 988.68 962.91 (0.11) 3.48 (0.03) -0.68 (-0.01)Observations 366 398 764 764

Notes: Data on population, population density, mean years of schooling, and migrants per capita are from II Conteode Poblacion y Vivienda, INEGI (National Institute of Statistics and Geography, 2005). Data on municipal taxcollection are from Sistema de Cuentas Municipales, INEGI. Data on housecold access to sewage and water are fromCONAPO (National Population Council) (2005). Data on malnutrition are from CONEVAL (National Council forEvaluating Social Development Policy), Indice de Reazgo Social (2005). Data on infant mortality are from PNUDMexico (UN Development Program, 2005). The marginality index is from CONAPO (2005). Data on distance to theU.S. and other road network characteristics are from the author’s own calculations. Electoral data are from MexicoElectoral-Banamex and electoral results published by the Electoral Tribunals of each state. For 11 states, data onthe total number of eligible voters, required to calculate turnout, are not reported. The geographic characteristics arefrom Acemoglu and Dell (2009). Columns (1) through (5) examine these variables for municipalities with closeelections. Column (6) and (7) examine these characteristics for municipalities that border a municipality with a closeelection. Column (3) reports the t-statistic on the difference in means between municipalities where the PAN barelywon and where they barely lost. Columns (4) and (6) report the coefficient on PAN win from a standard RDspecification where the respective characteristic is used as the dependent variable, and columns (5) and (7) reportthe respective t-statistic. * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.

A-2.2 Robustness of Regressions Discontinuity Analysis

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(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

Lin

ear

32.9

81**

*4.

967

-2.0

3836

.423

***

-2.4

6638

.064

***

-2.7

1047.1

11***

-5.7

61

25.6

21***

-0.2

26

(9.3

46)

(4.1

22)

(3.7

76)

(8.9

69)

(4.0

54)

(8.5

87)

(4.0

43)

(10.8

17)

(5.8

30)

(8.4

84)

(3.0

20)

Lin

ear

FE

15.8

99*

0.50

4-1

.211

18.4

60*

-0.6

7517

.545

-1.0

8737.4

45**

1.0

01

14.9

01**

-0.0

07

(8.7

36)

(2.8

15)

(2.7

09)

(9.9

23)

(2.8

30)

(12.

540)

(3.0

83)

(15.2

09)

(3.9

84)

(6.4

43)

(1.9

70)

Lin

ear

FE

contr

ols

16.7

86**

0.50

5-0

.989

19.4

88**

0.22

620

.637

*0.

445

40.2

25***

1.7

82

13.0

94**

-0.5

67

(7.7

62)

(3.1

19)

(2.6

43)

(8.5

12)

(2.8

83)

(10.

511)

(3.0

88)

(12.4

72)

(3.9

62)

(5.9

73)

(1.9

09)

Qu

adra

tic

41.6

58**

*3.

875

-4.5

3741

.436

***

-6.1

3542

.559

***

-7.9

31

29.4

69*

-9.7

13

34.9

24***

-3.2

61

(8.1

94)

(3.8

88)

(4.2

06)

(9.6

63)

(5.4

96)

(11.

390)

(6.8

76)

(15.4

31)

(9.1

52)

(9.5

34)

(3.7

17)

Qu

adra

tic

FE

29.6

06**

*6.

049*

**-1

.923

29.6

18**

-3.4

4735

.337

**-1

.426

22.8

67

-3.5

10

18.0

52**

-2.6

35

(9.5

38)

(2.2

26)

(3.6

61)

(14.

169)

(5.0

45)

(17.

279)

(4.4

28)

(21.1

84)

(5.1

55)

(8.5

31)

(2.9

93)

Qu

adra

tic

FE

Con

trol

s33

.271

***

6.95

8**

-0.7

8639

.390

***

0.51

443

.177

***

1.02

633.6

05*

-0.0

98

18.3

31**

-2.7

05

(8.2

62)

(2.8

72)

(3.3

36)

(11.

498)

(4.0

71)

(14.

609)

(4.1

85)

(16.9

85)

(5.3

63)

(7.4

54)

(2.7

06)

Cu

bic

40.9

96**

*-1

.483

-7.4

3740

.655

***

-9.1

5441

.769

***

-9.2

2864.2

31**

-8.1

59

39.1

30***

-4.8

12

(11.

568)

(3.3

23)

(7.0

88)

(13.

353)

(8.6

88)

(15.

468)

(9.9

19)

(31.0

15)

(14.2

08)

(8.5

13)

(4.0

40)

Cu

bic

FE

33.7

55**

4.05

4*-4

.527

34.8

65*

-2.3

8527

.018

-4.1

83

38.6

26

-5.1

44

19.3

02*

-4.0

82

(14.

914)

(2.2

00)

(6.4

22)

(18.

264)

(6.0

58)

(23.

226)

(6.4

06)

(32.7

52)

(10.0

63)

(10.2

65)

(3.6

62)

Cu

bic

FE

contr

ols

46.5

36**

*6.

879

-0.1

7347

.227

***

2.51

743

.331

**2.

464

90.7

85***

13.3

95

21.7

72**

-3.5

66

(11.

706)

(4.8

54)

(4.8

27)

(14.

629)

(4.8

33)

(18.

836)

(5.6

33)

(29.3

37)

(9.7

79)

(8.9

54)

(3.1

37)

Qu

arti

c41

.610

***

-2.3

93-1

0.52

246

.432

**-1

0.30

641

.921

-11.

420

211.0

72***

-11.6

09

43.6

79***

-4.7

69

(14.

486)

(3.8

23)

(9.4

01)

(19.

849)

(11.

231)

(31.

551)

(14.

458)

(40.1

56)

(25.8

41)

(8.7

16)

(4.8

74)

Qu

arti

cF

E38

.295

**2.

163

-4.6

1825

.043

-6.3

5815

.129

-9.2

08144.0

96***

-10.4

22

27.5

73**

-3.3

10

(17.

054)

(2.9

05)

(7.1

36)

(23.

980)

(8.1

32)

(32.

741)

(10.

622)

(48.6

17)

(21.0

34)

(11.6

66)

(4.6

61)

Qu

arti

cF

Eco

ntr

ols

53.3

62**

*5.

450

0.48

750

.675

***

2.58

579

.041

**9.

955

191.8

58***

9.0

95

32.8

52***

-1.9

26

(12.

543)

(4.7

41)

(5.1

99)

(18.

686)

(6.3

74)

(33.

582)

(11.

251)

(33.1

38)

(18.2

89)

(9.6

66)

(3.6

38)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

152

152

152

123

123

9494

62

62

380

380

Notes:

Inco

lum

ns

(1),

(4),

(6),

(8),

and

(10)

the

dep

end

ent

vari

ab

leis

the

dru

gtr

ad

eh

om

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

the

may

or’

ste

rm;

inco

lum

n(2

)it

isth

ed

rug

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

din

colu

mn

s(3

),(5

),(7

),(9

),an

d(1

1)

itis

the

dru

gh

om

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

the

pre

-ele

ctio

np

erio

d.

All

row

san

dco

lum

ns

rep

ort

the

coeffi

cien

ton

the

PA

Nw

inin

dic

ator.

Th

ero

ws

corr

esp

on

dto

diff

eren

tsp

ecifi

cati

on

sof

the

RD

poly

nom

ial,

fixed

effec

ts,

an

dco

ntr

ols

.T

he

colu

mn

sco

rres

pon

dto

diff

eren

tsp

ecifi

cati

ons

ofth

eb

an

dw

idth

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-11:

PA

NE

lect

ion

s(2

007-2

010)

an

dD

rug

Tra

de-R

ela

ted

Hom

icid

es

5%b

and

wid

th4%

3%2%

13.3

%P

ost

Lam

eP

reP

ost

Pre

Pos

tP

reP

ost

Pre

Post

Pre

inau

g.d

uck

elec

.in

aug.

elec

.in

aug.

elec

.in

au

g.

elec

.in

au

g.

elec

.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

Lin

ear

26.7

35**

*6.

331

3.83

022

.540

***

0.39

124

.392

***

1.00

317.5

22***

-3.7

68

15.5

80**

3.6

44

(8.5

60)

(5.2

12)

(4.6

88)

(8.0

09)

(4.5

95)

(7.8

51)

(5.0

70)

(6.0

15)

(4.3

38)

(7.1

00)

(3.4

81)

Lin

ear

FE

14.0

05**

*0.

918

-0.6

1715

.259

***

-1.5

1316

.153

***

-0.6

32

10.5

85

-5.5

22

8.5

31*

1.2

89

(5.3

55)

(5.1

81)

(4.7

74)

(5.0

87)

(4.4

89)

(5.6

51)

(4.8

17)

(8.2

75)

(7.7

76)

(5.0

98)

(3.8

35)

Lin

ear

FE

contr

ols

15.8

07**

*-0

.375

-1.2

7015

.881

***

-3.9

5017

.261

***

-2.4

54

15.3

52*

-9.0

01

8.3

69*

1.0

49

(4.3

94)

(4.2

68)

(3.7

18)

(4.6

72)

(3.8

09)

(4.9

21)

(3.8

64)

(8.1

44)

(8.2

85)

(4.2

98)

(3.3

50)

Qu

adra

tic

17.6

35**

*1.

132

-4.5

7419

.315

***

-4.2

4716

.306

**-6

.675

15.6

94

-9.3

75

23.4

53***

3.2

23

(6.4

89)

(4.8

95)

(4.7

74)

(4.9

95)

(5.0

93)

(7.6

80)

(5.3

68)

(10.3

40)

(7.5

11)

(7.7

11)

(4.3

71)

Qu

adra

tic

FE

11.5

67-2

.129

-6.9

5315

.197

**-5

.925

10.9

59-9

.178

6.9

91

-14.0

21

15.1

90***

0.2

87

(7.9

79)

(5.9

67)

(6.6

22)

(6.0

83)

(7.1

00)

(9.1

54)

(8.4

71)

(12.9

60)

(11.1

87)

(5.3

66)

(4.9

33)

Qu

adra

tic

FE

Con

trol

s16

.940

***

-2.0

07-6

.367

17.9

64**

*-8

.265

16.1

97-1

3.01

812.1

72

-21.2

90

15.2

37***

0.0

69

(6.2

85)

(6.1

63)

(5.0

49)

(6.2

22)

(6.6

41)

(9.9

02)

(9.7

88)

(12.6

45)

(13.6

16)

(4.5

53)

(4.1

08)

Cu

bic

18.2

31**

-5.5

30-5

.005

13.2

06-8

.174

14.8

17-8

.618

22.1

39

-12.9

79

25.3

50***

-1.7

05

(7.8

72)

(6.7

05)

(5.8

30)

(9.4

75)

(6.5

46)

(11.

067)

(8.9

69)

(18.2

59)

(14.6

29)

(7.3

13)

(4.9

80)

Cu

bic

FE

9.42

9-1

3.56

7-1

0.91

89.

384

-12.

567

4.34

1-1

4.08

6-3

.774

-17.7

89

15.4

61***

-5.8

14

(9.5

27)

(12.

302)

(9.1

44)

(9.8

14)

(9.3

85)

(12.

967)

(11.

801)

(18.6

43)

(18.0

66)

(5.2

61)

(5.9

43)

Cu

bic

FE

contr

ols

20.2

47**

-16.

038

-10.

364

14.6

00-1

8.10

9*14

.672

-18.

646

23.3

89

-21.1

22

16.7

38***

-5.6

31

(9.7

82)

(15.

974)

(8.4

26)

(10.

930)

(10.

576)

(13.

691)

(14.

287)

(19.1

26)

(28.6

63)

(4.8

25)

(4.7

56)

Qu

arti

c12

.756

-13.

076

-10.

507

19.4

49-1

0.38

820

.465

-15.

134

65.4

56

3.0

98

18.4

35***

-4.3

38

(11.

024)

(9.2

25)

(7.8

63)

(12.

099)

(10.

598)

(18.

263)

(15.

251)

(41.3

76)

(20.8

61)

(5.2

28)

(4.5

91)

Qu

arti

cF

E4.

364

-21.

661

-17.

814

8.96

5-1

5.17

22.

913

-16.

848

44.8

66

3.3

16

11.7

22*

-8.1

14

(12.

795)

(14.

819)

(11.

313)

(12.

962)

(11.

998)

(17.

952)

(16.

351)

(37.1

67)

(20.0

58)

(6.5

31)

(6.5

93)

Qu

arti

cF

Eco

ntr

ols

21.0

00-2

1.75

1-1

5.17

118

.177

-21.

380

21.8

41-2

1.71

258.7

63

6.1

17

16.4

70***

-6.6

44

(13.

113)

(17.

760)

(10.

061)

(12.

693)

(13.

262)

(16.

409)

(20.

772)

(38.9

80)

(21.1

41)

(5.6

89)

(5.1

42)

Clu

ster

s30

730

730

724

924

918

618

6130

130

746

746

Ob

serv

atio

ns

310

310

310

251

251

186

186

130

130

764

764

Notes:

Inco

lum

ns

(1),

(4),

(6),

(8),

and

(10)

the

dep

end

ent

vari

ab

leis

the

dru

gtr

ad

eh

om

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

the

post

-in

au

gu

rati

on

per

iod

;in

colu

mn

(2)

itis

the

dru

gh

omic

ide

rate

du

rin

gth

ela

me

du

ckp

erio

d,

and

inco

lum

ns

(3),

(5),

(7),

(9),

an

d(1

1)

itis

the

dru

gh

om

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

the

pre

-ele

ctio

np

erio

d.

All

row

san

dco

lum

ns

rep

ort

the

coeffi

cien

ton

the

PA

Nw

inin

dic

ato

r.T

he

row

sco

rres

pon

dto

diff

eren

tsp

ecifi

cati

on

sof

the

RD

poly

nom

ial,

fixed

effec

ts,

an

dco

ntr

ols

.T

he

colu

mn

sco

rres

pon

dto

diff

eren

tsp

ecifi

cati

ons

ofth

eb

an

dw

idth

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

signifi

cant

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-12:

PA

NE

lect

ion

s(2

007-2

008)

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

5%b

and

wid

th4%

3%2%

13.3

%P

ost

Lam

eP

reP

ost

Pre

Pos

tP

reP

ost

Pre

Post

Pre

inau

g.d

uck

elec

.in

aug.

elec

.in

aug.

elec

.in

au

g.

elec

.in

au

g.

elec

.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

Lin

ear

56.6

30**

*2.

457

3.08

862

.219

***

1.62

663

.787

***

0.18

575.7

71***

-3.6

54

44.5

51***

3.6

53

(12.

768)

(2.9

22)

(4.3

61)

(11.

444)

(4.8

46)

(10.

791)

(5.0

00)

(14.4

34)

(7.5

32)

(11.9

67)

(3.2

45)

Lin

ear

FE

32.7

29**

-0.6

110.

719

37.4

78**

*1.

039

36.4

49**

-0.8

5364.7

81***

1.3

62

29.1

87***

3.3

85

(12.

579)

(3.5

41)

(3.8

46)

(13.

862)

(4.1

26)

(17.

457)

(4.6

67)

(20.2

62)

(5.1

91)

(9.6

69)

(2.3

02)

Lin

ear

FE

contr

ols

34.4

30**

*-1

.764

1.43

238

.963

***

2.96

240

.079

**2.

493

68.6

96***

4.0

53

26.1

89***

3.6

86*

(11.

205)

(3.2

11)

(4.1

16)

(12.

165)

(4.0

82)

(15.

365)

(4.6

29)

(19.2

28)

(5.3

87)

(8.8

72)

(2.1

62)

Qu

adra

tic

68.5

50**

*4.

442

-1.9

5168

.130

***

-5.9

1972

.084

***

-6.2

9961.4

34***

-11.8

15

59.6

02***

1.6

53

(10.

105)

(3.1

42)

(5.5

71)

(12.

772)

(7.1

33)

(15.

029)

(8.8

91)

(19.8

91)

(11.6

25)

(12.6

68)

(4.3

82)

Qu

adra

tic

FE

55.3

48**

*4.

903

-1.0

5156

.208

***

-5.1

6763

.300

***

-1.5

7851.9

54*

-3.7

71

37.5

71***

1.3

16

(13.

698)

(3.8

77)

(5.6

71)

(18.

629)

(7.9

59)

(22.

861)

(7.1

56)

(27.1

93)

(6.8

80)

(11.9

85)

(3.6

99)

Qu

adra

tic

FE

contr

ols

61.4

15**

*4.

737

1.09

168

.388

***

1.39

973

.884

***

3.58

168.5

88**

3.9

09

37.9

70***

2.1

85

(12.

687)

(3.3

38)

(5.0

38)

(17.

461)

(6.4

69)

(21.

715)

(7.2

16)

(26.0

84)

(6.1

00)

(10.5

44)

(3.5

71)

Cu

bic

71.1

97**

*-0

.063

-7.8

6971

.760

***

-9.5

3077

.883

***

-12.

089

113.2

70***

-23.2

80

66.1

31***

-0.5

22

(15.

385)

(4.0

71)

(9.1

84)

(17.

171)

(11.

132)

(19.

531)

(12.

627)

(41.0

32)

(17.7

77)

(10.6

63)

(5.2

20)

Cu

bic

FE

66.4

41**

*0.

464

-6.5

9265

.402

***

-5.4

9257

.932

*-8

.386

69.1

67

-19.4

62*

41.9

77***

-1.0

43

(18.

634)

(5.4

76)

(9.7

70)

(23.

193)

(9.4

92)

(30.

227)

(9.7

88)

(45.0

54)

(10.8

46)

(13.8

75)

(4.9

11)

Cu

bic

FE

contr

ols

87.5

33**

*2.

666

1.46

781

.458

***

2.63

880

.244

***

5.70

1139.9

02***

0.2

09

45.9

12***

0.4

95

(16.

743)

(4.5

82)

(8.0

17)

(21.

835)

(8.2

80)

(27.

709)

(8.8

35)

(46.8

36)

(14.3

78)

(12.4

94)

(4.5

53)

Qu

arti

c70

.782

***

1.63

8-1

1.84

689

.305

***

-14.

355

88.6

94**

-30.

021

314.6

81***

-20.9

10

70.8

07***

-3.8

20

(18.

881)

(5.8

98)

(12.

066)

(25.

679)

(14.

014)

(40.

734)

(18.

335)

(52.2

71)

(28.2

29)

(11.1

08)

(6.3

33)

Qu

arti

cF

E66

.807

***

2.31

3-8

.116

57.8

57*

-13.

788

39.9

03-3

4.19

0**

197.5

22***

-23.5

17

54.1

24***

-3.0

66

(22.

414)

(6.8

69)

(11.

003)

(31.

878)

(11.

834)

(44.

767)

(13.

661)

(63.6

47)

(21.8

13)

(15.6

38)

(6.5

30)

Qu

arti

cF

Eco

ntr

ols

91.7

60**

*5.

284

1.81

094

.476

***

3.43

512

7.39

7**

-8.2

09254.6

27***

-8.1

43

62.0

25***

0.1

10

(18.

590)

(6.0

54)

(8.8

38)

(27.

883)

(10.

118)

(51.

547)

(14.

102)

(51.1

94)

(22.9

45)

(14.0

23)

(5.5

64)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

152

152

152

123

123

9494

62

62

380

380

Notes:

Inco

lum

ns

(1),

(4),

(6),

(8),

and

(10)

the

dep

end

ent

vari

ab

leis

the

dru

gtr

ad

eh

om

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

the

may

or’

ste

rm;

inco

lum

n(2

)it

isth

ed

rug

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

din

colu

mn

s(3

),(5

),(7

),(9

),an

d(1

1)

itis

the

dru

gh

om

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

the

pre

-ele

ctio

np

erio

d.

All

row

san

dco

lum

ns

rep

ort

the

coeffi

cien

ton

the

PA

Nw

inin

dic

ator.

Th

ero

ws

corr

esp

on

dto

diff

eren

tsp

ecifi

cati

on

sof

the

RD

poly

nom

ial,

fixed

effec

ts,

an

dco

ntr

ols

.T

he

colu

mn

sco

rres

pon

dto

diff

eren

tsp

ecifi

cati

ons

ofth

eb

an

dw

idth

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-13:

PA

NE

lect

ion

s(2

007-2

010)

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

5%b

and

wid

th4%

3%2%

13.3

%P

ost

Lam

eP

reP

ost

Pre

Pos

tP

reP

ost

Pre

Post

Pre

inau

g.d

uck

elec

.in

aug.

elec

.in

aug.

elec

.in

au

g.

elec

.in

au

g.

elec

.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

Lin

ear

44.8

20**

*6.

622

4.74

041

.830

***

3.02

342

.184

***

2.17

232.2

47***

-0.3

52

29.6

42***

3.6

97

(12.

289)

(6.6

65)

(3.4

98)

(12.

027)

(3.9

28)

(11.

541)

(4.4

08)

(11.6

85)

(4.6

81)

(10.9

13)

(2.4

48)

Lin

ear

FE

28.4

64**

*-0

.026

1.83

230

.120

***

2.03

330

.030

***

1.12

225.6

38*

0.6

92

19.3

16***

1.7

73

(8.1

78)

(7.2

83)

(2.9

95)

(8.7

58)

(3.0

23)

(9.5

47)

(3.7

76)

(13.4

78)

(4.4

21)

(7.0

85)

(1.9

90)

Lin

ear

FE

contr

ols

29.3

85**

*-2

.218

2.53

630

.469

***

2.82

331

.591

***

2.57

231.5

89**

2.5

42

18.3

99***

1.8

81

(7.6

57)

(5.5

95)

(2.8

40)

(8.0

45)

(2.9

28)

(8.6

00)

(3.2

67)

(13.0

13)

(4.6

20)

(6.2

78)

(1.9

29)

Qu

adra

tic

35.9

70**

*-2

.048

-0.6

6932

.601

***

-2.0

2129

.678

*-1

.824

27.2

29

-5.6

89

40.7

99***

3.4

82

(9.3

51)

(5.6

65)

(4.7

67)

(10.

070)

(5.1

40)

(15.

186)

(6.5

66)

(20.0

89)

(8.8

82)

(11.8

27)

(3.4

99)

Qu

adra

tic

FE

30.0

73**

*-7

.716

-0.3

0428

.374

**-0

.950

24.3

09-0

.476

21.5

69

-2.8

81

29.4

70***

1.9

11

(10.

626)

(8.9

69)

(4.7

56)

(11.

969)

(5.5

38)

(16.

664)

(6.2

81)

(22.5

81)

(7.4

04)

(8.5

57)

(3.1

89)

Qu

adra

tic

FE

Con

trol

s35

.409

***

-7.5

970.

864

32.1

56**

*1.

261

31.7

35*

3.87

530.6

80

2.6

55

28.5

97***

2.2

78

(10.

135)

(8.3

62)

(4.4

11)

(11.

135)

(4.9

74)

(16.

147)

(5.7

19)

(21.0

10)

(6.2

73)

(7.5

78)

(3.0

21)

Cu

bic

29.0

08*

-6.6

48-2

.118

25.1

65-3

.813

25.8

58-7

.825

51.1

01*

-12.3

97

43.4

34***

2.2

14

(15.

412)

(8.8

30)

(6.9

28)

(18.

519)

(7.9

34)

(21.

975)

(9.9

77)

(29.0

94)

(12.2

82)

(10.6

07)

(4.4

09)

Cu

bic

FE

22.3

61-2

2.51

0-1

.630

21.2

05-2

.884

14.9

00-7

.392

10.6

52

-16.7

40*

30.7

12***

1.1

05

(16.

504)

(17.

344)

(7.8

18)

(19.

012)

(7.9

28)

(24.

761)

(9.4

79)

(32.3

58)

(9.6

76)

(9.0

36)

(3.9

95)

Cu

bic

FE

contr

ols

33.2

65**

-25.

009

2.46

828

.943

2.46

731

.132

1.55

253.6

59

-4.1

70

31.2

67***

1.8

20

(15.

873)

(21.

577)

(6.7

64)

(18.

109)

(6.8

64)

(23.

605)

(7.6

14)

(32.6

62)

(8.7

75)

(8.7

61)

(3.8

11)

Qu

arti

c23

.244

-12.

152

-7.3

1336

.261

-6.7

2750

.659

*-1

4.26

3106.4

28*

-13.2

29

36.0

97***

-1.4

00

(21.

227)

(12.

413)

(9.3

23)

(23.

206)

(10.

635)

(30.

272)

(12.

929)

(63.4

40)

(17.9

26)

(9.5

27)

(5.2

95)

Qu

arti

cF

E17

.154

-29.

959

-7.1

0421

.076

-7.2

7621

.133

-17.

062

68.7

71

-19.2

63

28.9

60***

-0.5

96

(21.

824)

(20.

973)

(10.

080)

(25.

462)

(10.

220)

(33.

436)

(11.

330)

(59.4

45)

(15.0

78)

(10.9

66)

(5.6

12)

Qu

arti

cF

Eco

ntr

ols

36.2

16*

-27.

800

-1.8

0535

.657

0.91

452

.288

*-2

.224

95.2

17

-6.8

43

34.2

87***

1.1

82

(20.

522)

(24.

123)

(8.6

21)

(22.

803)

(8.3

62)

(31.

497)

(8.8

57)

(63.0

04)

(12.1

19)

(10.0

80)

(5.3

54)

Clu

ster

s30

730

730

724

924

918

618

6130

130

746

746

Ob

serv

atio

ns

310

310

310

251

251

186

186

130

130

764

764

Notes:

Inco

lum

ns

(1),

(4),

(6),

(8),

and

(10)

the

dep

end

ent

vari

ab

leis

the

dru

gtr

ad

eh

om

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

the

post

-in

au

gu

rati

on

per

iod

;in

colu

mn

(2)

itis

the

dru

gh

omic

ide

rate

du

rin

gth

ela

me

du

ckp

erio

d,

and

inco

lum

ns

(3),

(5),

(7),

(9),

an

d(1

1)

itis

the

dru

gh

om

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

the

pre

-ele

ctio

np

erio

d.

All

row

san

dco

lum

ns

rep

ort

the

coeffi

cien

ton

the

PA

Nw

inin

dic

ato

r.T

he

row

sco

rres

pon

dto

diff

eren

tsp

ecifi

cati

on

sof

the

RD

poly

nom

ial,

regio

nfi

xed

effec

ts,

an

dco

ntr

ols.

Th

eco

lum

ns

corr

esp

ond

tod

iffer

ent

spec

ifica

tion

sof

the

ban

dw

idth

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Table A-14: PAN Elections and Violence (All Municipalities)

Drug-Related Hom. Overall Hom.07-08 07-10 07-08 07-10

(1) (2) (3) (4)

PAN win 13.576 9.418 30.908** 17.775*(9.382) (6.962) (13.109) (10.608)

Clusters 621 1166 621 1166Observations 621 1,205 621 1,205R-squared 0.032 0.014 0.044 0.019

Notes: The sample includes all elections where the PAN was the winner or runner-up. Columns (1) and(2) examine the drug trade-related death rate and columns (3) and (4) examine the overall homicide rate.Columns (1) and (3) utilize elections that occurred in 2007-2008. Columns (2) and (4) utilize electionsoccurring in 2007-2010. Standard errors are clustered by municipality. * significant at 10%, ** significantat 5%, *** significant at 1%.

A-2.3 Robustness to Using Differences-in-Differences

Tab

leA

-15:

Clo

seP

AN

Ele

ctio

ns

an

dD

rug

Tra

de-R

ela

ted

Hom

icid

es

(DD

stra

tegy;

5%

vote

spre

ad

)

Quad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

pol

ynom

ial

Lin

ear

vote

spre

adp

olynom

ial

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

tim

etr

end(s

)ti

me

tren

d(s

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Pan

elA:20

07-200

8election

sP

AN

win

x1.

238

5.90

20.

490

1.34

56.

205

0.59

8la

me

duck

(5.3

55)

(5.5

15)

(3.9

78)

(5.6

65)

(5.5

00)

(4.2

60)

PA

Nw

inx

30.5

39**

*30

.539

***

26.3

29**

28.6

68**

*29

.448

***

24.4

75*

pos

t-in

aug.

(9.5

17)

(10.

197)

(12.

443)

(9.9

04)

(10.

182)

(12.

571)

R-s

quar

ed0.

085

0.16

50.

085

0.08

30.

165

0.08

3C

lust

ers

152

152

152

152

152

152

Obse

rvat

ions

8,81

68,

816

8,81

68,

816

8,81

68,

816

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0election

sP

AN

win

x-3

.212

2.83

0-3

.191

-3.3

213.

456

-3.2

24la

me

duck

(6.1

73)

(4.6

43)

(5.0

06)

(7.0

11)

(4.4

68)

(5.6

95)

PA

Nw

inx

22.2

99**

24.8

22**

22.3

91**

18.5

36*

23.3

07**

18.9

63*

pos

t-in

aug.

(9.5

01)

(10.

020)

(11.

175)

(9.9

02)

(9.8

57)

(10.

610)

R-s

quar

ed0.

038

0.10

30.

038

0.03

60.

103

0.03

6C

lust

ers

307

307

307

307

307

307

Obse

rvat

ions

17,9

8017

,980

17,9

8017

,980

17,9

8017

,980

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

leis

the

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

em

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

.P

AN

win

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

aP

AN

can

did

ate

won

the

elec

tion

,la

me

du

ckis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifth

eob

serv

atio

nocc

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

dp

ost

-in

au

g.

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

ob

serv

ati

on

occ

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

pos

t-in

augu

rati

onp

erio

d.

Col

um

ns

(1)

thro

ugh

(3)

incl

ud

ea

qu

ad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-in

au

gu

rati

on

ind

icat

ors,

and

Col

um

ns

(4)

thro

ugh

(6)

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

vote

spre

ad

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-inau

gu

rati

on

ind

icato

rs.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thfi

xed

effec

ts,

and

stan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipali

ty.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-16:

Clo

seP

AN

Ele

ctio

ns

an

dD

rug

Tra

de-R

ela

ted

Hom

icid

es

(DD

stra

tegy;

4%

vote

spre

ad

)

Quad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

pol

ynom

ial

Lin

ear

vote

spre

adp

olynom

ial

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

tim

etr

end(s

)ti

me

tren

d(s

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Pan

elA:20

07-200

8election

sP

AN

win

x3.

030

8.37

52.

304

3.75

58.

340

3.03

0la

me

duck

(5.8

09)

(6.4

94)

(4.1

76)

(6.0

83)

(6.2

90)

(4.4

37)

PA

Nw

inx

34.1

68**

*31

.252

***

30.2

21**

30.8

20**

30.2

24**

*26

.897

*p

ost-

inau

g.(1

0.76

3)(1

0.40

7)(1

3.03

4)(1

2.41

9)(1

0.45

2)(1

5.21

5)R

-squar

ed0.

105

0.18

60.

105

0.10

00.

186

0.09

9C

lust

ers

123

123

123

123

123

123

Obse

rvat

ions

7,13

47,

134

7,13

47,

134

7,13

47,

134

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0election

sP

AN

win

x-5

.467

4.67

3-5

.051

-8.2

844.

245

-7.7

18la

me

duck

(6.7

04)

(5.7

90)

(5.4

78)

(7.8

80)

(5.6

27)

(6.3

68)

PA

Nw

inx

20.1

04**

26.1

14**

21.9

88*

13.6

1023

.606

**16

.115

pos

t-in

aug.

(9.8

93)

(10.

446)

(11.

811)

(11.

134)

(10.

342)

(12.

877)

R-s

quar

ed0.

053

0.12

20.

053

0.04

60.

121

0.04

6C

lust

ers

249

249

249

249

249

249

Obse

rvat

ions

14,5

5814

,558

14,5

5814

,558

14,5

5814

,558

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

leis

the

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

em

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

.P

AN

win

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

aP

AN

can

did

ate

won

the

elec

tion

,la

me

du

ckis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifth

eob

serv

atio

nocc

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

dp

ost

-in

au

g.

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

ob

serv

ati

on

occ

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

pos

t-in

augu

rati

onp

erio

d.

Col

um

ns

(1)

thro

ugh

(3)

incl

ud

ea

qu

ad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-in

au

gu

rati

on

ind

icat

ors,

and

Col

um

ns

(4)

thro

ugh

(6)

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

vote

spre

ad

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-inau

gu

rati

on

ind

icato

rs.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thfi

xed

effec

ts,

and

stan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipali

ty.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-17:

Clo

seP

AN

Ele

ctio

ns

an

dD

rug

Tra

de-R

ela

ted

Hom

icid

es

(DD

stra

tegy;

3%

vote

spre

ad

)

Quad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

pol

ynom

ial

Lin

ear

vote

spre

adp

olynom

ial

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

tim

etr

end(s

)ti

me

tren

d(s

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Pan

elA:20

07-200

8election

sP

AN

win

x2.

235

7.96

01.

593

3.58

77.

926

2.95

2la

me

duck

(6.2

67)

(7.1

74)

(4.5

51)

(6.6

82)

(6.7

13)

(4.9

47)

PA

Nw

inx

36.9

40**

*31

.023

***

33.4

14**

31.5

73**

30.1

96**

*28

.102

*p

ost-

inau

g.(1

1.61

9)(9

.744

)(1

3.36

1)(1

4.21

9)(1

0.13

9)(1

6.78

5)R

-squar

ed0.

120

0.19

80.

119

0.11

10.

198

0.11

1C

lust

ers

9494

9494

9494

Obse

rvat

ions

5,45

25,

452

5,45

25,

452

5,45

25,

452

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0election

sP

AN

win

x-3

.969

4.63

2-4

.030

-3.4

214.

809

-3.2

98la

me

duck

(7.0

76)

(5.9

23)

(5.5

95)

(8.2

85)

(6.1

64)

(6.4

05)

PA

Nw

inx

24.6

42**

25.1

71**

24.4

18*

21.3

6724

.005

**21

.805

pos

t-in

aug.

(10.

865)

(9.8

87)

(12.

733)

(13.

329)

(9.8

46)

(15.

405)

R-s

quar

ed0.

064

0.13

30.

064

0.05

70.

132

0.05

7C

lust

ers

186

186

186

186

186

186

Obse

rvat

ions

10,7

8810

,788

10,7

8810

,788

10,7

8810

,788

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

leis

the

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

em

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

.P

AN

win

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

aP

AN

can

did

ate

won

the

elec

tion

,la

me

du

ckis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifth

eob

serv

atio

nocc

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

dp

ost

-in

au

g.

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

ob

serv

ati

on

occ

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

pos

t-in

augu

rati

onp

erio

d.

Col

um

ns

(1)

thro

ugh

(3)

incl

ud

ea

qu

ad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-in

au

gu

rati

on

ind

icat

ors,

and

Col

um

ns

(4)

thro

ugh

(6)

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

vote

spre

ad

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-inau

gu

rati

on

ind

icato

rs.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thfi

xed

effec

ts,

and

stan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipali

ty.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-18:

Clo

seP

AN

Ele

ctio

ns

an

dD

rug

Tra

de-R

ela

ted

Hom

icid

es

(DD

stra

tegy;

2%

vote

spre

ad

)

Quad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

pol

ynom

ial

Lin

ear

vote

spre

adp

olynom

ial

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

tim

etr

end(s

)ti

me

tren

d(s

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Pan

elA:20

07-200

8election

sP

AN

win

x-1

.080

-1.8

39-2

.870

-1.7

37-3

.311

-3.4

89la

me

duck

(6.1

38)

(6.1

36)

(6.0

34)

(5.2

98)

(4.4

31)

(5.5

91)

PA

Nw

inx

62.3

72**

*26

.180

***

52.2

88**

*65

.278

***

21.3

47**

55.2

00**

*p

ost-

inau

g.(1

1.93

2)(9

.778

)(1

1.46

8)(1

3.01

8)(8

.117

)(1

3.99

4)R

-squar

ed0.

182

0.25

40.

180

0.18

20.

253

0.17

9C

lust

ers

6262

6262

6262

Obse

rvat

ions

3,59

63,

596

3,59

63,

596

3,59

63,

596

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0election

sP

AN

win

x-1

4.46

7**

-4.0

72-1

5.20

6**

-19.

703*

**-3

.825

-20.

396*

**la

me

duck

(6.6

15)

(3.9

98)

(6.9

50)

(6.2

39)

(5.3

99)

(6.0

26)

PA

Nw

inx

39.5

83**

*20

.491

**35

.769

**35

.248

**21

.181

***

31.5

88*

pos

t-in

aug.

(13.

640)

(8.6

82)

(15.

615)

(15.

864)

(7.2

56)

(18.

729)

R-s

quar

ed0.

096

0.16

50.

096

0.09

20.

165

0.09

2C

lust

ers

130

130

130

130

130

130

Obse

rvat

ions

7,54

07,

540

7,54

07,

540

7,54

07,

540

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

leis

the

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

em

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

.P

AN

win

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

aP

AN

can

did

ate

won

the

elec

tion

,la

me

du

ckis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifth

eob

serv

atio

nocc

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

dp

ost

-in

au

g.

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

ob

serv

ati

on

occ

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

pos

t-in

augu

rati

onp

erio

d.

Col

um

ns

(1)

thro

ugh

(3)

incl

ud

ea

qu

ad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-in

au

gu

rati

on

ind

icat

ors,

and

Col

um

ns

(4)

thro

ugh

(6)

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

vote

spre

ad

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-inau

gu

rati

on

ind

icato

rs.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thfi

xed

effec

ts,

and

stan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipali

ty.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-19:

Clo

seP

AN

Ele

ctio

ns

an

dD

rug-R

ela

ted

Hom

icid

es

(DD

stra

tegy;

13.3

%vote

spre

ad

)

Quad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

pol

ynom

ial

Lin

ear

vote

spre

adp

olynom

ial

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

tim

etr

end(s

)ti

me

tren

d(s

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Pan

elA:20

07-200

8election

sP

AN

win

x2.

626

3.36

11.

120

2.40

53.

247

0.89

9la

me

duck

(4.3

21)

(3.8

41)

(3.0

72)

(4.4

50)

(3.9

07)

(3.1

70)

PA

Nw

inx

29.2

28**

*24

.241

***

20.9

68**

29.1

95**

*24

.390

***

20.9

38**

pos

t-in

aug.

(7.8

79)

(8.8

01)

(9.3

84)

(8.1

76)

(9.3

37)

(9.5

39)

R-s

quar

ed0.

046

0.14

00.

045

0.04

60.

139

0.04

5C

lust

ers

380

380

380

380

380

380

Obse

rvat

ions

22,0

4022

,040

22,0

4022

,040

22,0

4022

,040

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0election

sP

AN

win

x-0

.437

3.02

8-1

.737

-1.3

332.

731

-2.6

05la

me

duck

(5.5

92)

(3.1

17)

(4.1

80)

(5.8

08)

(3.0

80)

(4.3

42)

PA

Nw

inx

16.2

31**

13.7

91*

12.0

0715

.104

**13

.118

10.9

76p

ost-

inau

g.(7

.048

)(8

.338

)(7

.728

)(7

.305

)(8

.640

)(7

.691

)R

-squar

ed0.

026

0.10

80.

026

0.02

60.

108

0.02

5C

lust

ers

746

746

746

746

746

746

Obse

rvat

ions

44,3

1244

,312

44,3

1244

,312

44,3

1244

,312

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

leis

the

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

em

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

.P

AN

win

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

aP

AN

can

did

ate

won

the

elec

tion

,la

me

du

ckis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifth

eob

serv

atio

nocc

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

dp

ost

-in

au

g.

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

ob

serv

ati

on

occ

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

pos

t-in

augu

rati

onp

erio

d.

Col

um

ns

(1)

thro

ugh

(3)

incl

ud

ea

qu

ad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-in

au

gu

rati

on

ind

icat

ors,

and

Col

um

ns

(4)

thro

ugh

(6)

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

vote

spre

ad

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-inau

gu

rati

on

ind

icato

rs.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thfi

xed

effec

ts,

and

stan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipali

ty.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-20:

Clo

seP

AN

Ele

ctio

ns

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

(DD

stra

tegy;

5%

vote

spre

ad

)

Quad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

pol

ynom

ial

Lin

ear

vote

spre

adp

olynom

ial

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

tim

etr

end(s

)ti

me

tren

d(s

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

PA

Nw

inx

-9.4

37**

-14.

058*

**-4

.807

-8.8

80**

-13.

610*

**-4

.272

lam

educk

(3.9

92)

(4.2

13)

(3.5

75)

(4.1

15)

(4.3

59)

(3.6

99)

PA

Nw

inx

48.4

63**

*41

.445

***

53.9

83**

*45

.426

**38

.318

**50

.945

***

pos

t-in

aug.

(15.

376)

(15.

796)

(15.

830)

(18.

009)

(18.

406)

(18.

490)

R-s

quar

ed0.

178

0.23

50.

176

0.16

70.

229

0.16

5C

lust

ers

152

152

152

152

152

152

Obse

rvat

ions

39,2

6939

,269

39,2

6939

,269

39,2

6939

,269

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0election

sP

AN

win

x-5

.948

-8.6

47-2

.276

-5.9

14-8

.398

-2.2

27la

me

duck

(5.8

12)

(5.8

36)

(5.2

58)

(5.9

08)

(5.7

75)

(5.2

89)

PA

Nw

inx

37.2

94**

*33

.527

***

41.5

76**

*32

.368

***

28.9

19**

36.6

48**

*p

ost-

inau

g.(1

1.41

9)(1

1.25

9)(1

2.32

4)(1

2.11

2)(1

1.83

5)(1

2.88

1)R

-squar

ed0.

072

0.11

40.

071

0.06

80.

112

0.06

7C

lust

ers

307

307

307

307

307

307

Obse

rvat

ions

73,8

7573

,875

73,8

7573

,875

73,8

7573

,875

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

leis

the

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

em

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

.P

AN

win

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

aP

AN

can

did

ate

won

the

elec

tion

,la

me

du

ckis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifth

eob

serv

atio

nocc

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

dp

ost

-in

au

g.

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

ob

serv

ati

on

occ

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

pos

t-in

augu

rati

onp

erio

d.

Col

um

ns

(1)

thro

ugh

(3)

incl

ud

ea

qu

ad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-in

au

gu

rati

on

ind

icat

ors,

and

Col

um

ns

(4)

thro

ugh

(6)

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

vote

spre

ad

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-inau

gu

rati

on

ind

icato

rs.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thfi

xed

effec

ts,

and

stan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipali

ty.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-21:

Clo

seP

AN

Ele

ctio

ns

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

(DD

stra

tegy;

4%

vote

spre

ad

)

Quad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

pol

ynom

ial

Lin

ear

vote

spre

adp

olynom

ial

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

tim

etr

end(s

)ti

me

tren

d(s

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

PA

Nw

inx

-6.4

89**

-9.0

79**

*-0

.247

-6.0

02*

-7.5

78**

0.25

1la

me

duck

(3.2

34)

(2.6

85)

(3.1

09)

(3.3

73)

(3.0

41)

(3.2

72)

PA

Nw

inx

53.8

30**

*48

.647

***

61.0

20**

*49

.333

**44

.441

**56

.573

***

pos

t-in

aug.

(14.

621)

(15.

404)

(15.

041)

(20.

426)

(20.

793)

(20.

817)

R-s

quar

ed0.

222

0.27

30.

220

0.20

10.

262

0.19

8C

lust

ers

123

123

123

123

123

123

Obse

rvat

ions

31,7

7331

,773

31,7

7331

,773

31,7

7331

,773

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0election

sP

AN

win

x-5

.738

-8.0

13-1

.428

-5.9

90-8

.388

*-1

.680

lam

educk

(5.2

93)

(5.1

75)

(5.0

37)

(5.1

78)

(5.0

11)

(4.9

14)

PA

Nw

inx

35.4

09**

*32

.132

***

40.4

31**

*30

.298

**27

.320

**35

.316

***

pos

t-in

aug.

(10.

123)

(10.

595)

(11.

218)

(11.

747)

(12.

309)

(12.

691)

R-s

quar

ed0.

089

0.13

00.

087

0.08

00.

124

0.07

9C

lust

ers

249

249

249

249

249

249

Obse

rvat

ions

59,8

0959

,809

59,8

0959

,809

59,8

0959

,809

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

leis

the

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

em

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

.P

AN

win

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

aP

AN

can

did

ate

won

the

elec

tion

,la

me

du

ckis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifth

eob

serv

atio

nocc

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

dp

ost

-in

au

g.

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

ob

serv

ati

on

occ

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

pos

t-in

augu

rati

onp

erio

d.

Col

um

ns

(1)

thro

ugh

(3)

incl

ud

ea

qu

ad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-in

au

gu

rati

on

ind

icat

ors,

and

Col

um

ns

(4)

thro

ugh

(6)

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

vote

spre

ad

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-inau

gu

rati

on

ind

icato

rs.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thfi

xed

effec

ts,

and

stan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipali

ty.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-22:

Clo

seP

AN

Ele

ctio

ns

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

(DD

stra

tegy;

3%

vote

spre

ad

)

Quad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

pol

ynom

ial

Lin

ear

vote

spre

adp

olynom

ial

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

tim

etr

end(s

)ti

me

tren

d(s

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

PA

Nw

inx

-6.8

35**

-8.6

50**

*0.

010

-6.3

77**

-6.7

93**

0.49

8la

me

duck

(3.1

74)

(2.5

92)

(3.4

89)

(3.1

67)

(2.8

55)

(3.3

83)

PA

Nw

inx

57.3

04**

*53

.231

***

65.2

74**

*50

.182

**46

.527

**58

.230

***

pos

t-in

aug.

(14.

212)

(15.

044)

(14.

540)

(21.

524)

(22.

163)

(21.

965)

R-s

quar

ed0.

251

0.30

00.

248

0.22

50.

287

0.22

2C

lust

ers

9494

9494

9494

Obse

rvat

ions

24,2

8724

,287

24,2

8724

,287

24,2

8724

,287

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0election

sP

AN

win

x-3

.055

-5.0

791.

863

-3.2

08-4

.922

1.73

1la

me

duck

(5.3

54)

(4.7

30)

(5.3

09)

(5.3

44)

(4.6

95)

(5.2

93)

PA

Nw

inx

37.0

70**

*33

.725

***

42.5

97**

*33

.486

***

30.5

12**

39.0

35**

*p

ost-

inau

g.(9

.057

)(1

0.04

3)(1

0.14

2)(1

2.04

6)(1

3.14

7)(1

2.88

4)R

-squar

ed0.

110

0.15

30.

108

0.10

00.

147

0.09

7C

lust

ers

186

186

186

186

186

186

Obse

rvat

ions

44,3

3744

,337

44,3

3744

,337

44,3

3744

,337

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

leis

the

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

em

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

.P

AN

win

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

aP

AN

can

did

ate

won

the

elec

tion

,la

me

du

ckis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifth

eob

serv

atio

nocc

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

dp

ost

-in

au

g.

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

ob

serv

ati

on

occ

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

pos

t-in

augu

rati

onp

erio

d.

Col

um

ns

(1)

thro

ugh

(3)

incl

ud

ea

qu

ad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-in

au

gu

rati

on

ind

icat

ors,

and

Col

um

ns

(4)

thro

ugh

(6)

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

vote

spre

ad

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-inau

gu

rati

on

ind

icato

rs.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thfi

xed

effec

ts,

and

stan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipali

ty.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-23:

Clo

seP

AN

Ele

ctio

ns

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

(DD

stra

tegy;

2%

vote

spre

ad

)

Quad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

pol

ynom

ial

Lin

ear

vote

spre

adp

olynom

ial

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

tim

etr

end(s

)ti

me

tren

d(s

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

PA

Nw

inx

-8.3

61*

-7.8

06-1

.053

-9.8

27**

-8.5

74-2

.597

lam

educk

(4.8

09)

(6.0

89)

(5.4

92)

(3.8

04)

(6.1

82)

(4.4

28)

PA

Nw

inx

73.9

58**

*72

.483

***

83.5

04**

*75

.102

***

73.9

56**

*84

.659

***

pos

t-in

aug.

(15.

766)

(15.

425)

(15.

613)

(17.

163)

(17.

102)

(16.

919)

R-s

quar

ed0.

342

0.39

40.

338

0.34

20.

394

0.33

8C

lust

ers

6262

6262

6262

Obse

rvat

ions

16,0

2216

,022

16,0

2216

,022

16,0

2216

,022

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0election

sP

AN

win

x-1

9.60

3***

-17.

354*

**-1

3.40

8**

-19.

280*

*-1

7.23

9**

-13.

088*

lam

educk

(6.8

79)

(6.2

17)

(6.5

99)

(7.9

85)

(8.0

41)

(7.7

21)

PA

Nw

inx

27.9

07**

29.1

23**

35.3

56**

*27

.354

*28

.422

*34

.802

**p

ost-

inau

g.(1

3.19

4)(1

3.41

4)(1

2.94

8)(1

4.92

0)(1

5.79

0)(1

4.71

8)R

-squar

ed0.

157

0.20

30.

153

0.15

60.

202

0.15

2C

lust

ers

130

130

130

130

130

130

Obse

rvat

ions

30,9

9730

,997

30,9

9730

,997

30,9

9730

,997

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

leis

the

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

em

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

.P

AN

win

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

aP

AN

can

did

ate

won

the

elec

tion

,la

me

du

ckis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifth

eob

serv

atio

nocc

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

dp

ost

-in

au

g.

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

ob

serv

ati

on

occ

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

pos

t-in

augu

rati

onp

erio

d.

Col

um

ns

(1)

thro

ugh

(3)

incl

ud

ea

qu

ad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-in

au

gu

rati

on

ind

icat

ors,

and

Col

um

ns

(4)

thro

ugh

(6)

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

vote

spre

ad

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-inau

gu

rati

on

ind

icato

rs.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thfi

xed

effec

ts,

and

stan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipali

ty.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-24:

Clo

seP

AN

Ele

ctio

ns

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

(DD

stra

tegy;

13.3

%vote

spre

ad

)

Quad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

pol

ynom

ial

Lin

ear

vote

spre

adp

olynom

ial

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

Cal

endar

Munic

ipal

ity

No

tim

etr

end(s

)ti

me

tren

d(s

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

PA

Nw

inx

-6.6

33*

-8.9

04**

-3.0

21-6

.556

*-9

.019

**-2

.944

lam

educk

(3.7

88)

(3.8

57)

(3.0

95)

(3.7

29)

(3.8

75)

(3.0

60)

PA

Nw

inx

38.0

91**

*33

.937

***

42.5

30**

*38

.525

***

34.2

62**

42.9

61**

*p

ost-

inau

g.(1

2.82

1)(1

3.02

8)(1

3.47

7)(1

4.08

0)(1

4.02

6)(1

4.79

0)R

-squar

ed0.

128

0.18

70.

127

0.12

40.

185

0.12

3C

lust

ers

380

380

380

380

380

380

Obse

rvat

ions

98,1

7998

,179

98,1

7998

,179

98,1

7998

,179

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0election

sP

AN

win

x-1

.024

-3.5

551.

429

-1.2

98-3

.859

1.15

2la

me

duck

(4.2

32)

(4.6

34)

(3.8

74)

(4.1

63)

(4.6

19)

(3.8

48)

PA

Nw

inx

24.5

37**

21.5

08**

27.3

57**

*23

.302

**20

.458

**26

.117

**p

ost-

inau

g.(9

.642

)(9

.488

)(1

0.56

6)(1

0.31

6)(1

0.08

3)(1

1.23

9)R

-squar

ed0.

047

0.08

90.

046

0.04

40.

087

0.04

3C

lust

ers

746

746

746

746

746

746

Obse

rvat

ions

182,

104

182,

104

182,

104

182,

104

182,

104

182,

104

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

leis

the

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

em

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

.P

AN

win

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

aP

AN

can

did

ate

won

the

elec

tion

,la

me

du

ckis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifth

eob

serv

atio

nocc

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

dp

ost

-in

au

g.

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

ob

serv

ati

on

occ

urr

edd

uri

ng

the

pos

t-in

augu

rati

onp

erio

d.

Col

um

ns

(1)

thro

ugh

(3)

incl

ud

ea

qu

ad

rati

cvo

tesp

read

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-in

au

gu

rati

on

ind

icat

ors,

and

Col

um

ns

(4)

thro

ugh

(6)

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

vote

spre

ad

poly

nom

ial

inte

ract

edw

ith

the

lam

ed

uck

an

dp

ost

-inau

gu

rati

on

ind

icato

rs.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thfi

xed

effec

ts,

and

stan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipali

ty.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

A-2.4 Police-Criminal Confrontations

Tab

leA

-25:

Clo

seP

AN

Ele

ctio

ns

an

dD

eath

sin

Poli

ce-C

rim

inal

Con

fronta

tion

s

Con

fron

tati

onP

robab

ilit

yC

onfr

onta

tion

Dea

ths

Quad

rati

cR

DP

olynom

ial

Lin

ear

RD

Pol

ynom

ial

Quad

rati

cR

DP

olynom

ial

Lin

ear

RD

Pol

ynom

ial

Pos

tL

ame

Pre

Pos

tL

ame

Pre

Pos

tL

ame

Pre

Pos

tL

ame

Pre

inau

g.duck

elec

tion

inau

g.duck

elec

tion

inau

g.duck

elec

tion

inau

g.duck

elec

tion

Pan

elA:20

07-200

8Elections

PA

Nw

in0.

031

0.01

4-0

.002

0.03

5-0

.002

0.01

58.

658*

*0.

805

0.18

123

.454

***

3.63

64.

040

(0.0

58)

(0.0

10)

(0.0

29)

(0.0

37)

(0.0

12)

(0.0

26)

(3.6

97)

(1.3

88)

(4.3

32)

(8.5

59)

(2.9

83)

(6.6

13)

Obs.

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

R2

0.03

70.

051

0.02

00.

021

0.03

10.

016

0.36

00.

331

0.20

90.

222

0.21

20.

124

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0Elections

PA

Nw

in0.

002

-0.0

070.

001

0.02

50.

017

0.01

515

.261

**-0

.104

0.00

726

.770

*0.

453*

0.64

9(0

.033

)(0

.019

)(0

.018

)(0

.021

)(0

.016

)(0

.016

)(7

.537

)(0

.160

)(0

.406

)(1

4.12

0)(0

.263

)(0

.549

)

Clu

ster

s30

730

730

730

730

730

730

730

730

730

730

730

7O

bs.

310

310

310

310

310

310

310

310

310

310

310

310

R2

0.03

60.

010

0.01

10.

016

0.00

50.

008

0.23

10.

100

0.07

20.

200

0.04

70.

038

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

leis

dea

ths

inp

olic

e-cr

imin

al

con

fronta

tion

s.P

AN

win

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

aP

AN

can

did

ate

won

the

elec

tion

,an

dth

esa

mp

lein

clu

des

elec

tion

sin

wh

ich

the

PA

Nw

asfi

rst

or

seco

nd

by

a5

per

centa

ge

poin

tor

less

vote

spre

ad

marg

in.

Colu

mn

s(1

)th

rou

gh

(3)

an

d(7

)th

rou

gh

(9)

incl

ud

ea

qu

adra

tic

RD

pol

yn

omia

les

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.C

olu

mn

s(4

)th

rou

gh

(6)

an

d(1

0)

thro

ugh

(12)

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

RD

pol

yn

omia

les

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

onei

ther

sid

eof

the

thre

shold

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

A-2.5 Robustness of Heterogeneity Results

A–39

Tab

leA

-26:

Hete

rogen

eit

y(5

%b

an

dw

idth

)

Dep

end

ent

vari

able

:d

rug-

rela

ted

hom

icid

era

te

2007

-200

8el

ecti

ons

2007-2

010

elec

tion

s

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

PA

Nw

in32

.981

***

37.6

99**

*37

.333

***

-2.3

4426

.735

***

32.5

94***

30.3

33***

-0.7

81

(9.3

46)

(9.0

00)

(9.7

52)

(4.0

20)

(8.5

60)

(10.2

61)

(8.7

25)

(8.1

64)

PA

Nw

inx

-49.

364*

**-3

4.487***

far

from

U.S

.(1

2.67

4)(1

1.2

31)

PA

Nw

inx

-51.

267*

**-3

8.2

62***

low

vio

len

ce(1

1.52

4)(9

.709)

PA

Nw

inx

0.33

11.0

00

loca

lga

ng

(14.

867)

(9.9

78)

PA

Nw

inx

33.7

47**

*33.6

80**

riva

l(1

0.82

7)(1

6.7

47)

PA

Nw

inx

11.5

224.9

00

ally

(10.

992)

(9.4

05)

R-s

qu

ared

0.32

60.

433

0.44

30.

504

0.10

20.2

01

0.2

16

0.2

20

Clu

ster

s15

215

215

215

230

7307

307

307

Ob

serv

atio

ns

152

152

152

152

310

310

310

310

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-11.

670

-1.8

92

(far

from

US

)(8

.924

)(4

.566)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-13.

930*

*-7

.928*

(low

vio

len

ce)

(6.1

40)

(4.2

59)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-2.0

130.2

19

(loca

lga

ng)

(14.

310)

(5.7

36)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

31.4

00**

*32.9

00**

(riv

al)

(10.

050)

(14.6

20)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

9.17

84.1

19

(all

y)

(10.

230)

(4.6

69)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,fa

rfr

om

U.S

.is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyis

ab

ove

med

ian

dis

tan

cefr

omth

eU

.S.,

low

vio

len

ceis

anin

dic

ator

equ

al

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyh

ad

ab

elow

med

ian

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

2004-2

006,

loca

lgan

gis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

mu

nic

ipal

ity

conta

ins

only

alo

cal

gan

g,

riva

lis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

db

ord

ers

terr

itory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O,

and

ally

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

dd

oes

not

bord

erte

rrit

ory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O.

All

colu

mn

sli

mit

the

sam

ple

tom

un

icip

alit

ies

wh

ere

aP

AN

can

did

ate

was

the

win

ner

or

run

ner

-up

by

less

than

afi

vep

erce

nta

ge

poin

tvo

tesp

read

marg

inan

din

clu

de

ali

nea

rR

Dp

oly

nom

ial

esti

mat

edse

par

atel

yon

eith

ersi

de

ofth

eP

AN

win

-los

sth

resh

old

.In

ad

dit

ion

toth

ein

tera

ctio

ns,

main

effec

tsare

als

oin

clu

ded

.S

tan

dard

erro

rs,

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity,

are

inp

aren

thes

es.

*si

gnifi

cant

at10

%,

**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-27:

Hete

rogen

eit

y(4

%b

an

dw

idth

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Dep

var:

Drug-relatedhomiciderate

2007-2008sample

2007-2010sample

PA

Nw

in36

.423

***

43.6

31**

*43

.031

***

-5.6

6622

.540

***

26.1

06***

23.8

36***

-1.9

74

(8.9

69)

(7.7

10)

(9.1

87)

(5.1

76)

(8.0

09)

(9.0

68)

(7.5

02)

(9.5

17)

PA

Nw

inx

-53.

324*

**-3

0.7

72***

far

from

U.S

.(1

2.09

0)(1

0.6

73)

PA

Nw

inx

-59.

589*

**-3

4.9

39***

low

vio

len

ce(1

1.33

5)(8

.642)

PA

Nw

inx

9.40

52.9

72

loca

lga

ng

(14.

139)

(11.0

99)

PA

Nw

inx

38.5

11**

*19.9

79

riva

l(1

0.41

8)(1

5.3

44)

PA

Nw

inx

21.8

61**

7.0

98

ally

(8.3

41)

(10.8

15)

R-s

qu

ared

0.39

20.

504

0.49

90.

587

0.20

30.2

69

0.3

08

0.3

22

Ob

serv

atio

ns

123

123

123

123

251

251

251

251

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-9.6

93-4

.666

(far

from

US

)(9

.312

)(5

.629)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-16.

560*

*-1

1.1

0**

(low

vio

len

ce)

(6.6

39)

(4.2

90)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

3.73

80.9

97

(loca

lga

ng)

(13.

160)

(5.7

13)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

32.8

40**

*18.0

0(r

ival

)(9

.041

)(1

2.0

4)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

16.1

90**

5.1

23

(all

y)

(6.5

41)

(5.1

39)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,fa

rfr

om

U.S

.is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyis

ab

ove

med

ian

dis

tan

cefr

omth

eU

.S.,

low

vio

len

ceis

anin

dic

ator

equ

al

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyh

ad

ab

elow

med

ian

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

2004-2

006,

loca

lgan

gis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

mu

nic

ipal

ity

conta

ins

only

alo

cal

gan

g,

riva

lis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

db

ord

ers

terr

itory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O,

and

ally

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

dd

oes

not

bord

erte

rrit

ory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

ali

nea

rR

Dp

olyn

omia

les

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

onei

ther

sid

eof

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.In

ad

dit

ion

toth

ein

tera

ctio

ns,

main

effec

tsare

als

oin

clu

ded

.S

tan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity.

*si

gnifi

cant

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-28:

Hete

rogen

eit

y(3

%b

an

dw

idth

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Dep

var:


2007-2008sample

2007-2010sample

PA

Nw

in38

.064

***

43.3

33**

*45

.302

***

-6.2

8724

.392

***

26.6

75***

24.3

02***

-2.0

64

(8.5

87)

(7.6

03)

(9.4

29)

(6.0

72)

(7.8

51)

(9.6

34)

(6.9

78)

(10.5

29)

PA

Nw

inx

-52.

538*

**-2

7.9

99**

far

from

U.S

.(1

2.85

4)(1

0.9

92)

PA

Nw

inx

-62.

145*

**-3

4.1

04***

low

vio

lence

(11.

631)

(8.2

30)

PA

Nw

inx

11.4

892.9

32

loca

lga

ng

(13.

437)

(12.0

05)

PA

Nw

inx

43.2

27**

*22.2

53

riva

l(1

0.78

0)(1

6.6

95)

PA

Nw

inx

22.0

37**

14.1

41

ally

(9.0

44)

(11.8

10)

R-s

qu

ared

0.41

40.

524

0.52

30.

612

0.16

20.2

38

0.2

77

0.2

91

Ob

serv

atio

ns

9494

9494

186

186

186

186

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-9.2

06-1

.324

(far

from

US)

(10.

360)

(5.2

92)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-16.

840*

*-9

.802**

(low

vio

len

ce)

(6.8

10)

(4.3

65)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

5.20

30.8

68

(loca

lga

ng)

(11.

990)

(5.7

68)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

36.9

40**

*20.1

9(r

ival

)(8

.907

)(1

2.9

6)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

15.7

5**

12.0

8**

(all

y)

(6.7

02)

(5.3

51)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,fa

rfr

om

U.S

.is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyis

ab

ove

med

ian

dis

tan

cefr

omth

eU

.S.,

low

vio

len

ceis

anin

dic

ator

equ

al

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyh

ad

ab

elow

med

ian

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

2004-2

006,

loca

lgan

gis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

mu

nic

ipal

ity

conta

ins

only

alo

cal

gan

g,

riva

lis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

db

ord

ers

terr

itory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O,

and

ally

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

dd

oes

not

bord

erte

rrit

ory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

ali

nea

rR

Dp

olyn

omia

les

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

onei

ther

sid

eof

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.In

ad

dit

ion

toth

ein

tera

ctio

ns,

main

effec

tsare

als

oin

clu

ded

.S

tan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity.

*si

gnifi

cant

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-29:

Hete

rogen

eit

y(2

%b

an

dw

idth

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Dep

var:


2007-2008sample

2007-2010sample

PA

Nw

in47

.111

***

62.9

14**

*36

.860

**-0

.535

17.5

22**

*18

.520***

16.7

88*

-16.8

49

(10.

817)

(9.8

89)

(15.

046)

(5.4

35)

(6.0

15)

(6.4

53)

(9.4

11)

(10.4

99)

PA

Nw

inx

-70.

701*

**-1

4.4

75

far

from

U.S

.(1

9.08

5)(9

.007)

PA

Nw

inx

-46.

786*

**-2

3.4

94**

low

vio

len

ce(1

6.45

4)(1

0.5

67)

PA

Nw

inx

26.9

029.3

62

loca

lga

ng

(25.

339)

(13.1

92)

PA

Nw

inx

49.3

99**

*45.1

04***

riva

l(1

6.37

8)(1

4.8

24)

PA

Nw

inx

25.9

80**

*31.9

71**

ally

(7.3

90)

(13.6

10)

R-s

qu

ared

0.34

90.

542

0.55

80.

663

0.12

50.2

21

0.2

32

0.3

11

Ob

serv

atio

ns

6262

6262

130

130

130

130

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-7.7

884.0

45

(far

from

US

)(1

6.32

0)(6

.284)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-9.9

26-6

.705

(low

vio

len

ce)

(6.6

61)

(4.8

06)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

26.3

70-7

.487

(loca

lga

ng)

(24.

750)

(7.9

87)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

48.8

60**

*28.2

5***

(riv

al)

(15.

450)

(10.4

7)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

25.4

50**

*15.1

2*

(all

y)

(5.0

08)

(8.6

61)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,fa

rfr

om

U.S

.is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyis

ab

ove

med

ian

dis

tan

cefr

omth

eU

.S.,

low

vio

len

ceis

anin

dic

ator

equ

al

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyh

ad

ab

elow

med

ian

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

2004-2

006,

loca

lgan

gis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

mu

nic

ipal

ity

conta

ins

only

alo

cal

gan

g,

riva

lis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

db

ord

ers

terr

itory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O,

and

ally

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

dd

oes

not

bord

erte

rrit

ory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

ali

nea

rR

Dp

olyn

omia

les

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

onei

ther

sid

eof

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.In

ad

dit

ion

toth

ein

tera

ctio

ns,

main

effec

tsare

als

oin

clu

ded

.S

tan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity.

*si

gnifi

cant

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-30:

Hete

rogen

eit

y(1

3%

ban

dw

idth

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Dep

var:


2007-2008sample

2007-2010sample

PA

Nw

in25

.621

***

30.7

01**

*30

.306

***

-0.1

9615

.580

**16

.849**

18.4

95**

-1.9

14

(8.4

84)

(9.1

08)

(8.8

86)

(2.2

51)

(7.1

00)

(8.1

30)

(8.0

38)

(4.8

17)

PA

Nw

inx

-36.

108*

**-1

7.739**

far

from

U.S

.(1

0.79

2)(8

.673)

PA

Nw

inx

-36.

721*

**-2

2.6

62***

low

vio

len

ce(1

0.47

8)(8

.601)

PA

Nw

inx

-6.5

593.1

13

loca

lga

ng

(9.6

54)

(6.0

83)

PA

Nw

inx

29.0

27**

20.6

75*

riva

l(1

1.31

1)(1

0.9

54)

PA

Nw

inx

7.81

75.5

65

ally

(6.8

54)

(5.9

05)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

380

380

380

380

764

764

764

764

R-s

qu

ared

0.18

40.

289

0.30

20.

365

0.08

00.1

45

0.1

66

0.1

91

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-5.4

08-0

.890

(far

from

US

)(5

.789

)(3

.020)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-6.4

15-4

.167

(low

vio

lence

)(5

.552

)(3

.062)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-6.7

551.1

99

(loca

lga

ng)

(9.3

88)

(3.7

15)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

28.8

3***

18.7

6**

(riv

al)

(11.

08)

(9.8

38)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

7.62

23.6

52

(all

y)

(6.4

74)

(3.4

16)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,fa

rfr

om

U.S

.is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyis

ab

ove

med

ian

dis

tan

cefr

omth

eU

.S.,

low

vio

len

ceis

anin

dic

ator

equ

al

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyh

ad

ab

elow

med

ian

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

2004-2

006,

loca

lgan

gis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

mu

nic

ipal

ity

conta

ins

only

alo

cal

gan

g,

riva

lis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

db

ord

ers

terr

itory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O,

and

ally

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

dd

oes

not

bord

erte

rrit

ory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

ali

nea

rR

Dp

olyn

omia

les

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

onei

ther

sid

eof

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.In

ad

dit

ion

toth

ein

tera

ctio

ns,

main

effec

tsare

als

oin

clu

ded

.S

tan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity.

*si

gnifi

cant

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-31:

Hete

rogen

eit

y(o

vera

llh

om

icid

es,

5%

ban

dw

idth

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Dep

var:

Overallhomiciderate

2007-2008elections

2007-2010elections

PA

Nw

in56

.630

***

66.2

35**

*59

.683

***

-8.7

9844

.820

***

54.5

53***

46.3

71***

-3.6

56

(12.

768)

(11.

669)

(12.

309)

(5.5

11)

(12.

289)

(12.7

27)

(11.6

20)

(5.0

31)

PA

Nw

inx

-84.

627*

**-5

8.3

41***

far

from

U.S

.(1

6.10

6)(1

4.7

32)

PA

Nw

inx

-71.

613*

**-4

9.2

56***

low

vio

lence

(14.

238)

(12.9

85)

PA

Nw

inx

8.13

71.8

38

bor

der

slo

cal

gan

g(1

7.53

9)(7

.406)

PA

Nw

inx

73.1

91**

*56.7

24***

bor

der

sri

val

(14.

488)

(17.7

64)

PA

Nw

inx

16.0

4518.6

12**

bor

der

sal

ly(1

8.96

0)(8

.874)

R-s

qu

ared

0.39

60.

521

0.53

60.

593

0.23

70.3

60

0.4

19

0.4

12

Ob

serv

atio

ns

152

152

152

152

310

310

310

310

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-18.

39-3

.787

(far

from

US)

(11.

10)

(7.4

21)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-11.

930*

-2.8

85

(low

vio

lence

)(7

.156

)(5

.796)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-0.6

61-1

.818

(bor

der

slo

cal

gan

g)(1

6.65

)(5

.435)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

64.3

9***

53.0

7***

(bor

der

sri

val)

(13.

40)

(17.0

4)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

7.24

714.9

6**

(bor

der

sal

ly)

(18.

140)

(7.3

11)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,fa

rfr

om

U.S

.is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyis

ab

ove

med

ian

dis

tan

cefr

omth

eU

.S.,

low

vio

len

ceis

anin

dic

ator

equ

al

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyh

ad

ab

elow

med

ian

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

2004-2

006,

loca

lgan

gis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

mu

nic

ipal

ity

conta

ins

only

alo

cal

gan

g,

riva

lis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

db

ord

ers

terr

itory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O,

and

ally

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

dd

oes

not

bord

erte

rrit

ory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

ali

nea

rR

Dp

olyn

omia

les

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

onei

ther

sid

eof

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.In

ad

dit

ion

toth

ein

tera

ctio

ns,

main

effec

tsare

als

oin

clu

ded

.S

tan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity.

*si

gnifi

cant

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-32:

Hete

rogen

eit

y(o

vera

llh

om

icid

es,

4%

ban

dw

idth

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Dep

var:

Overallhomiciderate

2007-2008elections

2007-2010elections

PA

Nw

in62

.219

***

73.7

06**

*68

.397

***

-10.

449

41.8

30**

*50

.865***

42.1

32***

-5.9

63

(11.

444)

(8.8

38)

(10.

357)

(6.9

78)

(12.

027)

(12.3

44)

(10.9

54)

(6.1

35)

PA

Nw

inx

-86.

308*

**-5

8.5

65***

far

from

U.S

.(1

3.09

8)(1

5.1

81)

PA

Nw

inx

-84.

534*

**-5

2.6

56***

low

vio

lence

(12.

926)

(12.4

58)

PA

Nw

inx

14.8

984.6

29

loca

lga

ng

(17.

122)

(8.1

35)

PA

Nw

inx

70.7

33**

*39.3

02**

bor

der

sri

val

(11.

601)

(17.7

28)

PA

Nw

inx

35.4

34**

*27.6

89***

bor

der

sal

ly(1

2.70

8)(8

.589)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

123

123

123

123

251

251

251

251

R-s

qu

ared

0.49

10.

625

0.62

50.

708

0.34

10.4

48

0.5

15

0.5

73

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-12.

60-7

.700

(far

from

US)

(9.6

66)

(8.8

36)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-16.

14**

-10.5

2*

(low

vio

lence

)(7

.735

)(5

.936)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

4.44

9-1

.334

(loca

lga

ng)

(15.

64)

(5.3

42)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

60.2

8***

33.3

4**

(bor

der

sri

val)

(9.2

68)

(16.6

3)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

24.9

9**

21.7

3***

(bor

der

sal

ly)

(10.

62)

(6.0

11)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,fa

rfr

om

U.S

.is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyis

ab

ove

med

ian

dis

tan

cefr

omth

eU

.S.,

low

vio

len

ceis

anin

dic

ator

equ

al

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyh

ad

ab

elow

med

ian

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

2004-2

006,

loca

lgan

gis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

mu

nic

ipal

ity

conta

ins

only

alo

cal

gan

g,

riva

lis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

db

ord

ers

terr

itory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O,

and

ally

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

dd

oes

not

bord

erte

rrit

ory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

ali

nea

rR

Dp

olyn

omia

les

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

onei

ther

sid

eof

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.In

ad

dit

ion

toth

ein

tera

ctio

ns,

main

effec

tsare

als

oin

clu

ded

.S

tan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity.

*si

gnifi

cant

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-33:

Hete

rogen

eit

y(o

vera

llh

om

icid

es,

3%

ban

dw

idth

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Dep

var:

Overallhomiciderate

2007-2008elections

2007-2010elections

PA

Nw

in63

.787

***

73.0

82**

*72

.177

***

-9.7

2742

.184

***

49.7

43***

38.5

28***

-4.3

02

(10.

791)

(8.6

94)

(10.

543)

(8.2

95)

(11.

541)

(12.9

27)

(11.3

85)

(6.1

95)

PA

Nw

inx

-84.

231*

**-5

7.5

44***

far

from

U.S

.(1

3.80

1)(1

6.2

51)

PA

Nw

inx

-88.

859*

**-5

0.0

16***

low

vio

lence

(13.

198)

(12.9

54)

PA

Nw

inx

13.8

86-0

.710

loca

lga

ng

(16.

519)

(8.7

05)

PA

Nw

inx

74.4

66**

*39.9

61**

(bor

der

sri

val)

(12.

398)

(18.9

60)

PA

Nw

inx

36.9

57**

*31.5

99***

bor

der

sal

ly(1

3.38

2)(8

.882)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

9494

9494

186

186

186

186

R-s

qu

ared

0.50

50.

640

0.63

80.

721

0.32

50.4

49

0.5

06

0.5

67

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-11.

15-7

.801

(far

from

US)

(10.

72)

(9.8

48)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-16.

68**

-11.4

9*

(low

vio

lence

)(7

.939

)(6

.179)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

4.15

9-5

.011

(loca

lga

ng)

(14.

28)

(6.1

16)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

64.7

4***

35.6

6**

(bor

der

sri

val)

(9.2

13)

(17.9

2)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

27.2

3***

27.3

0***

(bor

der

sal

ly)

(10.

50)

(6.3

65)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,fa

rfr

om

U.S

.is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyis

ab

ove

med

ian

dis

tan

cefr

omth

eU

.S.,

low

vio

len

ceis

anin

dic

ator

equ

al

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyh

ad

ab

elow

med

ian

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

2004-2

006,

loca

lgan

gis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

mu

nic

ipal

ity

conta

ins

only

alo

cal

gan

g,

riva

lis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

db

ord

ers

terr

itory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O,

and

ally

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

dd

oes

not

bord

erte

rrit

ory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

ali

nea

rR

Dp

olyn

omia

les

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

onei

ther

sid

eof

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.In

ad

dit

ion

toth

ein

tera

ctio

ns,

main

effec

tsare

als

oin

clu

ded

.S

tan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity.

*si

gnifi

cant

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-34:

Hete

rogen

eit

y(o

vera

llh

om

icid

es,

2%

ban

dw

idth

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Dep

var:

Overallhomiciderate

2007-2008elections

2007-2010elections

PA

Nw

in75

.771

***

96.2

69**

*72

.528

***

8.12

132

.247

***

39.7

75***

25.7

45

-16.4

21

(14.

434)

(12.

337)

(21.

121)

(10.

202)

(11.

685)

(10.9

70)

(15.8

91)

(12.7

04)

PA

Nw

inx

-98.

543*

**-4

5.1

18***

far

from

U.S

.(2

1.96

4)(1

6.7

66)

PA

Nw

inx

-80.

222*

**-3

0.3

23*

low

vio

lence

(22.

263)

(17.4

50)

PA

Nw

inx

31.6

8821.2

40

loca

lga

ng

(32.

210)

(16.3

91)

PA

Nw

inx

71.1

76**

*50.4

82**

bor

der

sri

val

(18.

826)

(21.5

73)

PA

Nw

inx

36.7

08**

39.9

46***

bor

der

sal

ly(1

4.58

8)(1

5.0

55)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

6262

6262

130

130

130

130

R-s

qu

ared

0.42

80.

641

0.64

40.

757

0.26

90.4

30

0.4

65

0.5

82

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-2.2

73-5

.344

(far

from

US)

(18.

17)

(12.6

8)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-7.6

94-4

.577

(low

vio

lence

)(7

.039

)(7

.209)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

39.8

14.8

20

(loca

lga

ng)

(30.

55)

(10.3

6)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

79.3

0***

34.0

6**

(bor

der

sri

val)

(15.

82)

(17.4

4)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

44.8

3***

23.5

3***

(bor

der

sal

ly)

(10.

43)

(8.0

79)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,fa

rfr

om

U.S

.is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyis

ab

ove

med

ian

dis

tan

cefr

omth

eU

.S.,

low

vio

len

ceis

anin

dic

ator

equ

al

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyh

ad

ab

elow

med

ian

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

2004-2

006,

loca

lgan

gis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

mu

nic

ipal

ity

conta

ins

only

alo

cal

gan

g,

riva

lis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

db

ord

ers

terr

itory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O,

and

ally

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

dd

oes

not

bord

erte

rrit

ory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

ali

nea

rR

Dp

olyn

omia

les

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

onei

ther

sid

eof

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.In

ad

dit

ion

toth

ein

tera

ctio

ns,

main

effec

tsare

als

oin

clu

ded

.S

tan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity.

*si

gnifi

cant

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-35:

Hete

rogen

eit

y(o

vera

llh

om

icid

es,

13.3

%b

an

dw

idth

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Dep

var:

Overallhomiciderate

2007-2008elections

2007-2010elections

Dep

var:

Overallhomiciderate

Dep

var:

Overallhomiciderate

PA

Nw

in44

.551

***

53.3

98**

*50

.809

***

-7.3

32*

29.6

42**

*35

.266***

33.9

76***

-4.2

48

(11.

967)

(12.

223)

(11.

327)

(4.1

39)

(10.

913)

(11.4

89)

(10.6

43)

(3.4

01)

PA

Nw

inx

-59.

568*

**-3

6.5

90***

far

from

U.S

.(1

3.56

5)(1

2.4

64)

PA

Nw

inx

-56.

665*

**-3

6.5

36***

low

vio

lence

(12.

876)

(11.5

63)

PA

Nw

inx

-1.6

773.8

59

loca

lga

ng

(12.

021)

(5.5

96)

PA

Nw

inx

60.6

79**

*42.5

09***

bor

der

sri

val

(14.

663)

(13.8

02)

PA

Nw

inx

21.9

12**

19.6

23***

bor

der

sal

ly(1

1.02

9)(6

.379)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

380

380

380

380

764

764

764

764

R-s

qu

ared

0.27

00.

389

0.43

50.

481

0.16

50.2

56

0.3

28

0.3

26

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-6.1

70-1

.324

(far

from

US)

(5.8

83)

(4.8

33)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-5.8

56-2

.561

(low

vio

lence

)(6

.124

)(4

.520)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-9.0

10-0

.389

(loca

lga

ng)

(11.

29)

(4.4

43)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

53.3

5***

38.2

6***

(bor

der

sri

val)

(14.

07)

(13.3

8)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

14.5

815.3

8***

(bor

der

sal

ly)

(10.

22)

(5.3

97)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,fa

rfr

om

U.S

.is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyis

ab

ove

med

ian

dis

tan

cefr

omth

eU

.S.,

low

vio

len

ceis

anin

dic

ator

equ

al

to1

ifth

em

un

icip

ali

tyh

ad

ab

elow

med

ian

hom

icid

era

ted

uri

ng

2004-2

006,

loca

lgan

gis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

the

mu

nic

ipal

ity

conta

ins

only

alo

cal

gan

g,

riva

lis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

db

ord

ers

terr

itory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O,

and

ally

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

toon

eif

itco

nta

ins

am

ajo

rD

TO

an

dd

oes

not

bord

erte

rrit

ory

contr

oll

edby

ari

val

DT

O.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

ali

nea

rR

Dp

olyn

omia

les

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

onei

ther

sid

eof

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.In

ad

dit

ion

toth

ein

tera

ctio

ns,

main

effec

tsare

als

oin

clu

ded

.S

tan

dard

erro

rsare

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity.

*si

gnifi

cant

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

A-2.6 Robustness of Results on Local Politics and Violence

Tab

leA

-36:

Loca

lP

oli

tics

an

dD

rug-R

ela

ted

Hom

icid

es

(5%

Ban

dw

dit

h)

Dep

end

ent

vari

ab

le:

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

2007

-200

8el

ecti

ons

2007-2

010

elec

tion

s

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

PA

Nw

in32

.981

***

30.1

34**

*34.0

38***

26.7

35***

33.3

36***

24.1

23***

(9.3

46)

(8.0

82)

(11.1

73)

(8.5

60)

(9.8

01)

(6.5

31)

PA

Nw

inx

-32.

965*

**-3

2.8

12***

PA

Nin

cum

b.

(9.7

04)

(10.9

99)

Alt

er(P

AN

)8.

147

2.9

96

(6.3

13)

(6.0

41)

PR

Iw

in11.5

23

1.6

93

(10.5

50)

(13.0

92)

Alt

er(P

RI/

PR

D)

4.4

19

-2.7

95

(3.7

28)

(6.0

78)

PA

Nw

inx

3.6

17

0.4

15

PA

Ngo

v.

(15.4

94)

(17.3

42)

Clu

ster

s15

215

215

2142

142

152

307

307

307

181

181

307

Ob

serv

atio

ns

152

152

152

142

142

152

310

310

310

183

183

310

R-s

qu

ared

0.32

60.

470

0.10

40.0

38

0.0

39

0.3

42

0.1

02

0.255

0.1

87

0.0

89

0.0

96

0.1

19

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-2.8

310.

524

(PA

Nin

cum

b.)

(5.3

70)

(4.9

93)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

37.6

60***

24.5

40

(PA

Ngo

v.)

(10.7

30)

(16.0

70)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,P

AN

incu

mb

ent

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

hel

dth

em

ayors

hip

du

rin

gth

ep

revio

us

term

,P

AN

gove

rnor

isan

ind

icat

or

equ

al

to1

ifth

est

ate

has

aP

AN

gov

ern

or,

PR

Iw

inis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

RI

won

the

elec

tion

,an

dal

ter

isa

du

mm

yeq

ual

one

ifth

ep

arty

contr

olli

ng

the

may

ors

hip

chan

ged

.C

olu

mn

s(1

)-

(3),

(6)

-(9

),an

d(1

2)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

wh

ere

aP

AN

can

did

ate

was

the

win

ner

orru

nn

er-u

pby

less

than

afi

ve

per

centa

ge

poin

tvo

tesp

read

marg

in;

an

dco

lum

ns

(4),

(5),

(10),

an

d(1

1)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipal

itie

sw

ith

acl

ose

elec

tion

bet

wee

nP

RI

and

PR

Dca

nd

idate

s.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

RD

poly

nom

ial

esti

mate

dse

para

tely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

thre

shol

d.

Inco

lum

ns

(2),

(6),

(8),

and

(12)

,m

ain

effec

tsare

als

oin

clu

ded

.S

tan

dard

erro

rs,

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipali

ty,

are

inp

are

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at5%

,**

*si

gnifi

cant

at1%

.

Tab

leA

-37:

Loca

lP

oli

tics

an

dD

rug-R

ela

ted

Hom

icid

es

(4%

Ban

dw

dit

h)

Dep

end

ent

vari

ab

le:

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

2007

-200

8el

ecti

on

s2007-2

010

elec

tion

s

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

PA

Nw

in36

.423

***

32.7

89**

*36.2

08***

22.5

40***

22.3

82***

19.4

03***

(8.9

69)

(7.8

86)

(10.3

25)

(8.0

09)

(7.4

29)

(4.8

42)

PA

Nw

inx

-34.

597*

**-2

1.2

79**

PA

Nin

cum

b.

(8.3

80)

(9.1

81)

Alt

er(P

AN

)8.

687

10.1

57**

(6.3

70)

(4.6

25)

PR

Iw

in15.7

29

18.9

13

(10.3

47)

(11.6

87)

Alt

er(P

RI/

PR

D)

2.3

96

1.0

49

(3.7

47)

(4.8

52)

PA

Nw

inx

31.3

77*

-0.5

38

PA

Ngo

v.

(18.7

41)

(20.7

65)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

123

123

123

116

116

123

251

251

251

147

147

251

R-s

qu

ared

0.39

20.

523

0.15

50.0

87

0.0

17

0.4

10

0.2

03

0.2

82

0.1

70

0.0

53

0.0

03

0.2

27

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-1.8

081.1

03

(PA

Nin

cum

b.)

(2.8

32)

(5.3

94)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

67.5

80***

18.8

70

(PA

Ngo

v.)

(15.6

40)

(20.1

90)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,P

AN

incu

mb

ent

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

hel

dth

em

ayors

hip

du

rin

gth

ep

revio

us

term

,P

AN

gove

rnor

isan

ind

icat

or

equ

al

to1

ifth

est

ate

has

aP

AN

gov

ern

or,

PR

Iw

inis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

RI

won

the

elec

tion

,an

dal

ter

isa

du

mm

yeq

ual

one

ifth

ep

arty

contr

olli

ng

the

may

ors

hip

chan

ged

.C

olu

mn

s(1

)-

(3),

(6)

-(9

),an

d(1

2)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

wh

ere

aP

AN

can

did

ate

was

the

win

ner

orru

nn

er-u

p;

and

colu

mn

s(4

),(5

),(1

0),

an

d(1

1)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipaliti

esw

ith

acl

ose

elec

tion

bet

wee

nP

RI

an

dP

RD

can

did

ates

.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

RD

pol

yn

omia

les

tim

ate

dse

para

tely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

thre

shold

.In

colu

mn

s(2

),(6

),(8

),an

d(1

2),

main

effec

tsare

also

incl

ud

ed.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rs,

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity,

are

inp

are

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-38:

Loca

lP

oli

tics

an

dD

rug-R

ela

ted

Hom

icid

es

(3%

Ban

dw

dit

h)

Dep

end

ent

vari

ab

le:

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

2007

-200

8el

ecti

on

s2007-2

010

elec

tion

s

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

PA

Nw

in38

.064

***

33.0

36**

*36.9

67***

24.3

92***

22.5

90***

20.6

84***

(8.5

87)

(8.2

52)

(10.1

35)

(7.8

51)

(7.3

52)

(4.7

63)

PA

Nw

inx

-34.

499*

**-1

8.0

65*

PA

Nin

cum

b.

(8.8

17)

(9.3

01)

Alt

er(P

AN

)9.

565

10.1

93**

(6.8

95)

(4.6

39)

PR

Iw

in13.4

67

19.9

29

(13.2

11)

(14.9

89)

Alt

er(P

RI/

PR

D)

3.4

06

3.0

02

(3.9

48)

(4.8

30)

PA

Nw

inx

31.1

66

1.6

25

PA

Ngo

v.

(18.7

93)

(21.5

32)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

9494

9492

92

94

186

186

186

116

116

186

R-s

qu

ared

0.41

40.

537

0.14

90.0

86

0.0

28

0.4

24

0.1

62

0.2

44

0.1

47

0.0

53

0.0

14

0.1

96

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-1.4

634.5

25

(PA

Nin

cum

b.)

(3.1

07)

(5.6

98)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

68.1

30***

22.3

10

(PA

Ngo

v.)

(15.8

30)

(21.0

00)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,P

AN

incu

mb

ent

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

hel

dth

em

ayors

hip

du

rin

gth

ep

revio

us

term

,P

AN

gove

rnor

isan

ind

icat

or

equ

al

to1

ifth

est

ate

has

aP

AN

gov

ern

or,

PR

Iw

inis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

RI

won

the

elec

tion

,an

dal

ter

isa

du

mm

yeq

ual

one

ifth

ep

arty

contr

olli

ng

the

may

ors

hip

chan

ged

.C

olu

mn

s(1

)-

(3),

(6)

-(9

),an

d(1

2)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

wh

ere

aP

AN

can

did

ate

was

the

win

ner

orru

nn

er-u

p;

and

colu

mn

s(4

),(5

),(1

0),

an

d(1

1)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipaliti

esw

ith

acl

ose

elec

tion

bet

wee

nP

RI

an

dP

RD

can

did

ates

.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

RD

pol

yn

omia

les

tim

ate

dse

para

tely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

thre

shold

.In

colu

mn

s(2

),(6

),(8

),an

d(1

2),

main

effec

tsare

also

incl

ud

ed.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rs,

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity,

are

inp

are

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-39:

Loca

lP

oli

tics

an

dD

rug-R

ela

ted

Hom

icid

es

(2%

Ban

dw

dit

h)

Dep

end

ent

vari

ab

le:

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

2007

-200

8el

ecti

on

s2007-2

010

elec

tion

s

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

PA

Nw

in47

.111

***

45.5

37**

*49.8

28***

17.5

22***

11.8

39*

17.9

62**

(10.

817)

(13.

285)

(11.0

89)

(6.0

15)

(7.0

31)

(7.1

59)

PA

Nw

inx

-48.

438*

**-2

.714

PA

Nin

cum

b.

(15.

258)

(12.

234)

Alt

er(P

AN

)8.

199

10.1

04***

(11.

059)

(3.7

47)

PR

Iw

in20.4

07

37.9

53

(21.4

06)

(23.1

65)

Alt

er(P

RI/

PR

D)

5.7

82

5.2

72

(5.6

02)

(5.9

61)

PA

Nw

inx

58.1

36

-15.9

75

PA

Ngo

v.

(52.2

87)

(26.1

05)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

6262

6261

61

62

130

130

130

78

78

130

R-s

qu

ared

0.34

90.

529

0.21

80.1

16

0.0

40

0.4

01

0.1

25

0.263

0.2

25

0.0

89

0.0

09

0.1

34

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-2.9

019.1

25

(PA

Nin

cum

b.)

(7.5

04)

(10.0

10)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

108.0

00**

1.9

87

(PA

Ngo

v.)

(51.1

00)

(25.1

00)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,P

AN

incu

mb

ent

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

hel

dth

em

ayors

hip

du

rin

gth

ep

revio

us

term

,P

AN

gove

rnor

isan

ind

icat

or

equ

al

to1

ifth

est

ate

has

aP

AN

gov

ern

or,

PR

Iw

inis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

RI

won

the

elec

tion

,an

dal

ter

isa

du

mm

yeq

ual

one

ifth

ep

arty

contr

olli

ng

the

may

ors

hip

chan

ged

.C

olu

mn

s(1

)-

(3),

(6)

-(9

),an

d(1

2)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

wh

ere

aP

AN

can

did

ate

was

the

win

ner

orru

nn

er-u

p;

and

colu

mn

s(4

),(5

),(1

0),

an

d(1

1)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipaliti

esw

ith

acl

ose

elec

tion

bet

wee

nP

RI

an

dP

RD

can

did

ates

.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

RD

pol

yn

omia

les

tim

ate

dse

para

tely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

thre

shold

.In

colu

mn

s(2

),(6

),(8

),an

d(1

2),

main

effec

tsare

also

incl

ud

ed.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rs,

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity,

are

inp

are

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-40:

Loca

lP

oli

tics

an

dD

rug-R

ela

ted

Hom

icid

es

(13.3

%B

an

dw

dit

h)

Dep

end

ent

vari

ab

le:

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

2007

-2008

elec

tions

2007-2

010

elec

tion

s

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

PA

Nw

in25

.621

***

23.6

14**

*28.1

31**

15.5

80**

16.2

80**

14.1

32**

(8.4

84)

(7.8

72)

(11.5

73)

(7.1

00)

(7.9

99)

(5.9

45)

PA

Nw

inx

-20.

390*

*-1

5.9

39*

PA

Nin

cum

b.

(8.2

01)

(8.4

78)

Alt

er(P

AN

)6.

226

1.9

66

(5.8

97)

(4.6

49)

PR

Iw

in10.2

11

12.1

50

(6.4

61)

(8.6

80)

Alt

er(P

RI/

PR

D)

-0.1

03

-6.4

76

(3.5

14)

(6.5

58)

PA

Nw

inx

-2.4

49

0.2

60

PA

Ngo

v.

(14.7

20)

(13.2

37)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

380

380

380

308

308

380

764

764

764

423

423

764

R-s

qu

ared

0.18

40.

292

0.026

0.0

28

0.0

23

0.2

13

0.0

80

0.1

61

0.0

29

0.0

38

0.0

41

0.0

84

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

3.22

40.3

41

(PA

Nin

cum

b.)

(2.3

01)

(2.7

94)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

25.6

80***

14.3

90

(PA

Ngo

v.)

(9.0

97)

(11.8

30)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,P

AN

incu

mb

ent

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

hel

dth

em

ayors

hip

du

rin

gth

ep

revio

us

term

,P

AN

gove

rnor

isan

ind

icat

or

equ

al

to1

ifth

est

ate

has

aP

AN

gov

ern

or,

PR

Iw

inis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

RI

won

the

elec

tion

,an

dal

ter

isa

du

mm

yeq

ual

one

ifth

ep

arty

contr

olli

ng

the

may

ors

hip

chan

ged

.C

olu

mn

s(1

)-

(3),

(6)

-(9

),an

d(1

2)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

wh

ere

aP

AN

can

did

ate

was

the

win

ner

orru

nn

er-u

p;

and

colu

mn

s(4

),(5

),(1

0),

an

d(1

1)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipaliti

esw

ith

acl

ose

elec

tion

bet

wee

nP

RI

an

dP

RD

can

did

ates

.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

RD

pol

yn

omia

les

tim

ate

dse

para

tely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

thre

shold

.In

colu

mn

s(2

),(6

),(8

),an

d(1

2),

main

effec

tsare

also

incl

ud

ed.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rs,

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity,

are

inp

are

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-41:

Loca

lP

oli

tics

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

(5%

Ban

dw

dit

h)

Dep

end

ent

vari

ab

le:

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

2007

-200

8el

ecti

ons

2007-2

010

elec

tion

s

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

PA

Nw

in56

.630

***

60.4

82**

*54.0

09***

44.8

20***

48.1

63***

35.7

23***

(12.

768)

(10.

886)

(16.8

49)

(12.2

89)

(12.0

96)

(11.0

52)

PA

Nw

inx

-66.

399*

**-3

5.1

06***

PA

Nin

cum

b.

(14.

555)

(13.3

35)

Alt

er(P

AN

)15

.459

8.1

51

(9.4

31)

(8.3

11)

PR

Iw

in11.5

50

-0.2

79

(11.0

69)

(12.1

98)

Alt

er(P

RI/

PR

D)

4.6

11

0.1

68

(4.6

26)

(5.8

45)

PA

Nw

inx

13.0

28

23.6

45

PA

Ngo

v.

(23.8

68)

(24.1

92)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

152

152

152

142

142

152

310

310

310

183

183

310

R-s

qu

ared

0.39

60.

535

0.16

70.0

33

0.0

16

0.4

07

0.2

37

0.4

01

0.2

02

0.0

32

0.0

43

0.2

62

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-5.9

1813.0

60**

(PA

Nin

cum

b.)

(9.6

61)

(5.6

15)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

67.0

40***

59.3

70***

(PA

Ngo

v.)

(16.9

10)

(21.5

20)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,P

AN

incu

mb

ent

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

hel

dth

em

ayors

hip

du

rin

gth

ep

revio

us

term

,P

AN

gove

rnor

isan

ind

icat

or

equ

al

to1

ifth

est

ate

has

aP

AN

gov

ern

or,

PR

Iw

inis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

RI

won

the

elec

tion

,an

dal

ter

isa

du

mm

yeq

ual

one

ifth

ep

arty

contr

olli

ng

the

may

ors

hip

chan

ged

.C

olu

mn

s(1

)-

(3),

(6)

-(9

),an

d(1

2)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

wh

ere

aP

AN

can

did

ate

was

the

win

ner

orru

nn

er-u

p;

and

colu

mn

s(4

),(5

),(1

0),

an

d(1

1)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipaliti

esw

ith

acl

ose

elec

tion

bet

wee

nP

RI

an

dP

RD

can

did

ates

.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

RD

pol

yn

omia

les

tim

ate

dse

para

tely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

thre

shold

.In

colu

mn

s(2

),(6

),(8

),an

d(1

2),

main

effec

tsare

also

incl

ud

ed.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rs,

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity,

are

inp

are

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-42:

Loca

lP

oli

tics

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

(4%

Ban

dw

dit

h)

Dep

end

ent

vari

ab

le:

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

2007

-200

8el

ecti

on

s2007-2

010

elec

tions

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

PA

Nw

in62

.219

***

62.1

76**

*58.8

42***

41.8

30***

39.

053***

33.2

53***

(11.

444)

(9.8

70)

(14.6

19)

(12.0

27)

(11.0

61)

(10.0

35)

PA

Nw

inx

-64.

698*

**-2

5.3

80**

PA

Nin

cum

b.

(11.

624)

(12.5

36)

Alt

er(P

AN

)18

.822

**

13.9

29*

(9.2

77)

(7.7

51)

PR

Iw

in14.7

21

16.3

24

(11.3

53)

(11.5

89)

Alt

er(P

RI/

PR

D)

2.1

95

2.9

42

(5.1

20)

(5.3

56)

PA

Nw

inx

51.3

09*

20.4

09

PA

Ngo

v.

(28.2

99)

(26.6

12)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

123

123

123

116

116

123

251

251

251

147

147

251

R-s

qu

ared

0.49

10.

612

0.21

70.0

80

0.0

21

0.5

14

0.3

41

0.4

56

0.2

42

0.0

56

0.0

20

0.3

70

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-2.5

2213

.670**

(PA

Nin

cum

b.)

(6.1

41)

(5.9

00)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

110.2

00***

53.6

60**

(PA

Ngo

v.)

(24.2

30)

(24.6

50)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,P

AN

incu

mb

ent

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

hel

dth

em

ayors

hip

du

rin

gth

ep

revio

us

term

,P

AN

gove

rnor

isan

ind

icat

or

equ

al

to1

ifth

est

ate

has

aP

AN

gov

ern

or,

PR

Iw

inis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

RI

won

the

elec

tion

,an

dal

ter

isa

du

mm

yeq

ual

one

ifth

ep

arty

contr

olli

ng

the

may

ors

hip

chan

ged

.C

olu

mn

s(1

)-

(3),

(6)

-(9

),an

d(1

2)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

wh

ere

aP

AN

can

did

ate

was

the

win

ner

orru

nn

er-u

p;

and

colu

mn

s(4

),(5

),(1

0),

an

d(1

1)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipaliti

esw

ith

acl

ose

elec

tion

bet

wee

nP

RI

an

dP

RD

can

did

ates

.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

RD

pol

yn

omia

les

tim

ate

dse

para

tely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

thre

shold

.In

colu

mn

s(2

),(6

),(8

),an

d(1

2),

main

effec

tsare

also

incl

ud

ed.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rs,

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity,

are

inp

are

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-43:

Loca

lP

oli

tics

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

(3%

Ban

dw

dit

h)

Dep

end

ent

vari

ab

le:

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

2007

-200

8el

ecti

on

s2007-2

010

elec

tions

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

PA

Nw

in63

.787

***

62.8

69**

*60.8

46***

42.1

84***

38.

620***

34.2

89***

(10.

791)

(10.

277)

(14.2

05)

(11.5

41)

(11.0

30)

(10.2

18)

PA

Nw

inx

-76.

492*

**-2

4.1

35*

PA

Nin

cum

b.

(13.

065)

(12.6

63)

Alt

er(P

AN

)20

.314

**

13.4

68*

(9.8

04)

(7.6

98)

PR

Iw

in10.6

39

16.5

70

(14.4

20)

(14.9

10)

Alt

er(P

RI/

PR

D)

4.1

47

5.5

25

(5.2

00)

(5.1

57)

PA

Nw

inx

49.6

64*

24.4

75

PA

Ngo

v.

(28.3

16)

(27.3

41)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

9494

9492

92

94

186

186

186

116

116

186

R-s

qu

ared

0.50

50.

617

0.22

20.0

82

0.0

29

0.5

25

0.3

25

0.4

40

0.2

50

0.0

54

0.0

31

0.3

70

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-13.

620*

14.4

80**

(PA

Nin

cum

b.)

(8.0

66)

(6.2

20)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

110.5

00***

58.7

60**

(PA

Ngo

v.)

(24.5

00)

(25.3

60)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,P

AN

incu

mb

ent

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

hel

dth

em

ayors

hip

du

rin

gth

ep

revio

us

term

,P

AN

gove

rnor

isan

ind

icat

or

equ

al

to1

ifth

est

ate

has

aP

AN

gov

ern

or,

PR

Iw

inis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

RI

won

the

elec

tion

,an

dal

ter

isa

du

mm

yeq

ual

one

ifth

ep

arty

contr

olli

ng

the

may

ors

hip

chan

ged

.C

olu

mn

s(1

)-

(3),

(6)

-(9

),an

d(1

2)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

wh

ere

aP

AN

can

did

ate

was

the

win

ner

orru

nn

er-u

p;

and

colu

mn

s(4

),(5

),(1

0),

an

d(1

1)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipaliti

esw

ith

acl

ose

elec

tion

bet

wee

nP

RI

an

dP

RD

can

did

ates

.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

RD

pol

yn

omia

les

tim

ate

dse

para

tely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

thre

shold

.In

colu

mn

s(2

),(6

),(8

),an

d(1

2),

main

effec

tsare

also

incl

ud

ed.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rs,

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity,

are

inp

are

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-44:

Loca

lP

oli

tics

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

(2%

Ban

dw

dit

h)

Dep

end

ent

vari

ab

le:

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

2007

-200

8el

ecti

on

s2007-2

010

elec

tion

s

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

PA

Nw

in75

.771

***

76.0

52**

*83.1

08***

32.2

47***

25.6

49*

38.1

82***

(14.

434)

(17.

870)

(13.7

76)

(11.6

85)

(14.4

57)

(12.3

92)

PA

Nw

inx

-107

.590

***

-10.1

49

PA

Nin

cum

b.

(21.

737)

(17.5

14)

Alt

er(P

AN

)20

.723

13.1

51**

(15.

258)

(6.3

76)

PR

Iw

in17.0

05

34.5

48

(23.1

66)

(22.2

97)

Alt

er(P

RI/

PR

D)

6.3

74

7.7

65

(6.5

86)

(6.3

05)

PA

Nw

inx

63.0

32

-17.3

89

PA

Ngo

v.

(94.4

14)

(30.3

07)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

6262

6261

61

62

130

130

130

78

78

130

R-s

qu

ared

0.42

80.

609

0.31

60.1

05

0.0

28

0.5

18

0.2

69

0.461

0.4

00

0.0

88

0.0

25

0.3

04

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

-31.

540*

*15.5

00

(PA

Nin

cum

b.)

(12.

380)

(9.8

85)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

146.1

00

20.7

90

(PA

Ngo

v.)

(93.4

00)

(27.6

60)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,P

AN

incu

mb

ent

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

hel

dth

em

ayors

hip

du

rin

gth

ep

revio

us

term

,P

AN

gove

rnor

isan

ind

icat

or

equ

al

to1

ifth

est

ate

has

aP

AN

gov

ern

or,

PR

Iw

inis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

RI

won

the

elec

tion

,an

dal

ter

isa

du

mm

yeq

ual

one

ifth

ep

arty

contr

olli

ng

the

may

ors

hip

chan

ged

.C

olu

mn

s(1

)-

(3),

(6)

-(9

),an

d(1

2)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

wh

ere

aP

AN

can

did

ate

was

the

win

ner

orru

nn

er-u

p;

and

colu

mn

s(4

),(5

),(1

0),

an

d(1

1)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipaliti

esw

ith

acl

ose

elec

tion

bet

wee

nP

RI

an

dP

RD

can

did

ates

.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

RD

pol

yn

omia

les

tim

ate

dse

para

tely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

thre

shold

.In

colu

mn

s(2

),(6

),(8

),an

d(1

2),

main

effec

tsare

also

incl

ud

ed.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rs,

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity,

are

inp

are

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-45:

Loca

lP

oli

tics

an

dO

vera

llH

om

icid

es

(13.3

%B

an

dw

dit

h)

Dep

end

ent

vari

ab

le:

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

2007

-2008

elec

tion

s2007-2

010

elec

tion

s

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

PA

Nw

in44

.551

***

44.0

67**

*44.7

74***

29.6

42***

29.8

63***

24.3

42**

(11.

967)

(10.

326)

(17.0

80)

(10.9

13)

(10.6

96)

(10.8

18)

PA

Nw

inx

-35.

807*

**-2

1.8

65*

PA

Nin

cum

b.

(11.

183)

(11.3

68)

Alt

er(P

AN

)12

.353

4.9

50

(9.0

46)

(6.3

44)

PR

Iw

in6.8

37

7.0

93

(7.2

39)

(8.1

49)

Alt

er(P

RI/

PR

D)

-0.3

04

-3.7

52

(4.5

03)

(5.8

55)

PA

Nw

inx

3.2

74

11.4

55

PA

Ngo

v.

(22.4

02)

(20.1

87)

Ob

serv

atio

ns

380

380

380

308

308

380

764

764

764

423

423

764

R-s

qu

ared

0.27

00.

379

0.039

0.0

12

0.0

20

0.2

87

0.1

65

0.2

85

0.0

35

0.0

16

0.0

19

0.1

73

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

8.26

0*7.9

97**

(PA

Nin

cum

b.)

(4.2

94)

(3.8

27)

PA

Nw

ineff

ect

48.0

50***

35.8

00**

(PA

Ngo

v.)

(14.4

90)

(17.0

40)

Notes:

PA

Nw

inis

anin

dic

ator

equ

alto

one

ifa

PA

Nca

nd

idate

won

the

elec

tion

,P

AN

incu

mb

ent

isan

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

hel

dth

em

ayors

hip

du

rin

gth

ep

revio

us

term

,P

AN

gove

rnor

isan

ind

icat

or

equ

al

to1

ifth

est

ate

has

aP

AN

gov

ern

or,

PR

Iw

inis

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

RI

won

the

elec

tion

,an

dal

ter

isa

du

mm

yeq

ual

one

ifth

ep

arty

contr

olli

ng

the

may

ors

hip

chan

ged

.C

olu

mn

s(1

)-

(3),

(6)

-(9

),an

d(1

2)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

wh

ere

aP

AN

can

did

ate

was

the

win

ner

orru

nn

er-u

p;

and

colu

mn

s(4

),(5

),(1

0),

an

d(1

1)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipaliti

esw

ith

acl

ose

elec

tion

bet

wee

nP

RI

an

dP

RD

can

did

ates

.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

ea

lin

ear

RD

pol

yn

omia

les

tim

ate

dse

para

tely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

thre

shold

.In

colu

mn

s(2

),(6

),(8

),an

d(1

2),

main

effec

tsare

also

incl

ud

ed.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rs,

clu

ster

edby

mu

nic

ipal

ity,

are

inp

are

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

A-2.7 Corruption and Other Results

Table A-46: Corruption

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Bandwidth5% 4% 3% 2% 13.3%

Panel A: Means comparisonPAN win -0.022 -0.023 0.021 0.054 -0.007

(0.087) (0.097) (0.121) (0.152) (0.055)R-squared 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.000

Panel B: RD analysisPAN win 0.091 0.013 -0.034 -0.324 -0.005

(0.159) (0.174) (0.215) (0.295) (0.091)R-squared 0.124 0.164 0.133 0.109 0.027

Observations 102 84 62 44 237Mean dep. var. 0.245 0.262 0.323 0.409 0.231

Notes: PAN win is an indicator equal to one if a PAN candidate won the election, and the dependentvariable is an indicator equal to 1 if official government records document the mayor engaging in corruptionin 2008. Close elections from 2007 where the mayor had take office by the beginning of 2008 are included inthe sample. Panel B includes a linear RD polynomial estimated separately on either side of the PANwin-loss threshold. * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.

Table A-47: Violence and Corruption of the Losing Party

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Bandwidth5% 5% 13.3% 13.3%

PAN win 81.584* 43.017 37.418* 16.686(42.919) (37.565) (21.431) (13.875)

Loser corrupt 12.160 3.582(24.946) (8.288)

PAN win x 109.946** 83.278**Loser corrupt (50.657) (33.414)

Observations 61 61 165 165R-squared 0.200 0.303 0.099 0.204

Notes: The dependent variable is the homicide rate during the one year following the mayor’sinauguration. PAN win is an indicator equal to one if a PAN candidate won the election, and loser corruptis an indicator equal to 1 if official government records document that the losing party was engaged incorruption during the previous mayor’s term, in 2008. The only way to observe this is if the losing party isthe incumbent party, so in all municipalities with PAN win= 1, the PAN did not hold the mayorshippreviously. 2009-2010 close elections where the incumbent party lost form the sample. All columns includea linear RD polynomial estimated separately on either side of the PAN win-loss threshold. * significant at10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.

Table A-48: Political Competition and Violence

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Drug trade-related Overall Drug trade-related Overallhomicide rate homicide probability

07-08 07-10 07-08 07-10 07-08 07-10 07-08 07-10

5% bandwidthabs(spread) -1.165** -0.160 -0.604 -0.338 -0.021* -0.000 -0.057 0.025

(0.535) (1.152) (0.719) (0.627) (0.011) (0.009) (0.643) (0.428)4% bandwidthabs(spread) -1.234 -0.864 -1.128 -1.247 -0.036** -0.008 -0.186 -0.229

(0.809) (0.924) (1.188) (0.842) (0.016) (0.012) (0.988) (0.566)3% bandwidthabs(spread) -1.008 -0.913 -1.440 -1.216 -0.042* -0.021 1.472 1.413

(0.988) (1.106) (1.677) (1.285) (0.025) (0.016) (2.351) (1.405)2% bandwidthabs(spread) 0.621 3.290 3.037 2.859 -0.101* -0.020 -0.458 2.269

(3.194) (2.905) (2.811) (2.150) (0.058) (0.033) (2.778) (2.254)13.3% bandwidthabs(spread) -0.298* -0.265 -0.020 -0.158 -0.003 -0.003 -0.059 -0.083

(0.172) (0.251) (0.202) (0.155) (0.002) (0.002) (0.189) (0.110)

Notes: The table reports coefficients from regressing violence measures on the absolute value of the votespread. Each row considers a different vote spread bandwidth.

A-2.8 Robustness of Spillover Results

Tab

leA

-49:

Th

eD

ivers

ion

of

Dru

gT

raffi

c(2

007-2

010

Ele

ctio

ns)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

Full

Sam

ple

Lim

ited

Sam

ple

Full

Sam

ple

Dom

esti

cIl

lici

tD

rug

Con

fisc

atio

ns

Coca

ine

Con

fisc

atio

ns

Dum

my

Val

ue

Val

ue

Dum

my

Val

ue

Val

ue

Dum

my

Val

ue

Val

ue

Pan

elA:Sho

rtestPaths

Pre

dic

ted

0.00

8*0.

080

0.00

70.

048

-0.0

010.

005

route

sdum

my

(0.0

05)

(0.0

60)

(0.0

08)

(0.0

93)

(0.0

05)

(0.0

25)

Pre

dic

ted

0.01

8***

0.01

60.

004

route

sco

unt

(0.0

06)

(0.0

10)

(0.0

03)

Pan

elB:Model

withCon

gestionCosts

Pre

dic

ted

0.00

6*0.

062

0.00

80.

093

0.00

40.

021

route

sdum

my

(0.0

04)

(0.0

41)

(0.0

06)

(0.0

61)

(0.0

04)

(0.0

20)

Pre

dic

ted

0.00

5*0.

007*

0.00

3ro

ute

sco

unt

(0.0

03)

(0.0

04)

(0.0

02)

Munic

ipal

itie

s1,

816

1,81

61,

816

937

937

937

1,81

61,

816

1,81

6O

bse

rvat

ions

88,9

8488

,984

88,9

8445

,913

45,9

1345

,913

88,9

8488

,984

88,9

84

Notes:

Th

edep

end

ent

vari

able

inco

lum

ns

(1),

and

(4)

isan

indic

ato

req

ual

to1

ifd

om

esti

cil

lici

td

rug

con

fisc

ati

on

sare

mad

ein

agiv

enm

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

;th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(2

),(3

),(5

),an

d(6

)is

the

log

valu

eof

dom

esti

cil

lici

td

rug

con

fisc

ati

on

s(o

r0

ifn

oco

nfi

scati

on

sare

mad

e);

the

dep

end

ent

vari

ab

lein

colu

mn

(7)

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

to1

ifco

cain

eco

nfi

scati

on

sare

mad

ein

agiv

enm

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

;an

dth

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(8

)an

d(9

)is

the

log

valu

eof

con

fisc

ated

coca

ine

(or

0if

no

con

fisc

atio

ns

are

mad

e).

Colu

mn

s(4

)th

rou

gh

(6)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

that

do

not

bord

era

mu

nic

ipali

tyth

ath

asex

per

ien

ced

acl

ose

PA

Nvic

tory

from

2007

to2010.

Pan

elA

pre

dic

tstr

affi

ckin

gro

ute

su

sin

gth

esh

ort

est

path

sm

od

el,

an

dP

an

elB

use

sth

em

od

elw

ith

con

gest

ion

cost

s.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

em

onth

xst

ate

and

mu

nic

ipali

tyfi

xed

effec

ts.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rscl

ust

ered

by

mu

nic

ipali

tyan

dm

onth

xst

ate

are

rep

ort

edin

par

enth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-50:

Vio

len

ceS

pil

lovers

(2007-2

010

Ele

ctio

ns)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

Full

Sam

ple

Lim

ited

Sam

ple

Dep.var.:Drugtrad

e-relatedho

micide

Dep.Var.:

Drugtrad

e-relatedho

micide

dummy

rate

rate

dummy

rate

dummy

rate

rate

dummy

rate

Pan

elA:Sho

rtestPaths

Pre

dic

ted

0.00

31.

833

-0.0

111.

215

route

sdum

my

(0.0

05)

(1.3

68)

(0.0

09)

(2.0

58)

Pre

dic

ted

0.47

8**

0.40

6ro

ute

sco

unt

(0.2

22)

(0.2

63)

One

route

-0.0

01-3

.669

-0.0

180.

460

(0.0

06)

(3.2

86)

(0.0

12)

(1.3

45)

Mor

eth

an0.

007

6.02

2**

-0.0

071.

759

one

route

(0.0

07)

(2.5

53)

(0.0

11)

(2.9

02)

Pan

elB:Model

withCon

gestionCosts

Pre

dic

ted

0.00

31.

278

0.00

30.

601

route

sdum

my

(0.0

04)

(0.7

87)

(0.0

07)

(1.0

57)

Pre

dic

ted

0.03

60.

066

route

sco

unt

(0.0

45)

(0.0

76)

One

route

-0.0

040.

803

-0.0

060.

029

(0.0

06)

(1.2

93)

(0.0

09)

(0.8

93)

Mor

eth

an0.

006

1.43

00.

007

0.81

1on

ero

ute

(0.0

05)

(0.9

76)

(0.0

07)

(1.1

99)

Munic

ipal

itie

s1,

816

1,81

61,

816

1,81

61,

816

937

937

937

937

937

Obse

rvat

ions

88,9

8488

,984

88,9

8488

,984

88,9

8445

,913

45,9

1345

,913

45,9

1345

,913

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(1

),(4

),(6

)an

d(9

)is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifa

dru

gtr

ad

e-re

late

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

agiv

enm

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

,an

dth

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(2

),(3

),(5

),(7

),(8

),an

d(1

0)

isth

ed

rug

trad

e-re

late

dh

om

icid

era

tep

er100,0

00

mu

nic

ipal

inh

ab

itants

.C

olu

mn

s(6

)th

rou

gh(1

0)li

mit

the

sam

ple

tom

un

icip

alit

ies

that

do

not

bord

era

mu

nic

ipali

tyth

at

exp

erie

nce

da

close

PA

Nvic

tory

bet

wee

n2007

an

d2010.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mon

thx

stat

ean

dm

un

icip

alit

yfi

xed

effec

ts.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rscl

ust

ered

by

mu

nic

ipali

tyan

dm

onth

xst

ate

are

rep

ort

edin

pare

nth

eses

.*

signifi

cant

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at5%

,**

*si

gnifi

cant

at1%

.

Tab

leA

-51:

Th

eD

ivers

ion

of

Dru

gT

raffi

c(C

ontr

oll

ing

for

PA

Nm

ayors

)

Dep

.va

r.:

Dom

esti

cIl

lici

tD

rug

Con

fisc

atio

ns

Coca

ine

Con

fisc

atio

ns

Dum

my

Val

ue

Val

ue

Dum

my

Val

ue

Val

ue

Dum

my

Val

ue

Val

ue

Full

Sam

ple

Lim

ited

Sam

ple

Full

Sam

ple

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

Pan

elA:Sho

rtestPaths

Pre

dic

ted

0.01

6***

0.17

0***

0.01

6**

0.17

0***

0.00

40.

028

route

sdum

my

(0.0

05)

(0.0

50)

(0.0

07)

(0.0

65)

(0.0

04)

(0.0

20)

Pre

dic

ted

0.02

2***

0.01

5*0.

006

route

sco

unt

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08)

(0.0

09)

(0.0

06)

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elB:Model

withCon

gestionCosts

Pre

dic

ted

0.01

3**

0.14

9***

0.01

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129*

*0.

002

0.00

9ro

ute

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(0.0

05)

(0.0

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06)

(0.0

65)

(0.0

04)

(0.0

25)

Pre

dic

ted

0.00

40.

002

0.00

1ro

ute

sco

unt

(0.0

04)

(0.0

04)

(0.0

02)

Munic

ipal

itie

s18

6918

6918

6915

6215

6215

6218

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bse

rvat

ions

6915

369

153

6915

357

,794

57,7

9457

,794

6915

369

153

6915

3

Notes:

Th

edep

end

ent

vari

able

inco

lum

ns

(1),

and

(4)

isan

indic

ato

req

ual

to1

ifd

om

esti

cil

lici

td

rug

con

fisc

ati

on

sare

mad

ein

agiv

enm

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

;th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(2

),(3

),(5

),an

d(6

)is

the

log

valu

eof

dom

esti

cil

lici

td

rug

con

fisc

ati

on

s(o

r0

ifn

oco

nfi

scati

on

sare

mad

e);

the

dep

end

ent

vari

ab

lein

colu

mn

(7)

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

to1

ifco

cain

eco

nfi

scati

on

sare

mad

ein

agiv

enm

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

;an

dth

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(8

)an

d(9

)is

the

log

valu

eof

con

fisc

ated

coca

ine

(or

0if

no

con

fisc

atio

ns

are

mad

e).

Colu

mn

s(4

)th

rou

gh

(6)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

that

do

not

bord

era

mu

nic

ipali

tyth

ath

asex

per

ien

ced

acl

ose

PA

Nvic

tory

.P

anel

Ap

red

icts

traffi

ckin

gro

ute

su

sin

gth

esh

ort

est

path

sm

od

el,

and

Pan

elB

use

sth

em

od

elw

ith

con

ges

tion

cost

s.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

em

onth

xst

ate

and

mu

nic

ipal

ity

fixed

effec

ts,

as

wel

las

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

curr

entl

yco

ntr

ols

the

may

ors

hip

inth

em

un

icip

ali

ty.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rscl

ust

ered

by

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thx

state

are

rep

ort

edin

pare

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-52:

Vio

len

ceS

pil

lovers

(Contr

oll

ing

for

PA

Nm

ayors

)

Dep

var:

dru

gtr

ade-

rela

ted

hom

icid

eD

epva

r:dru

gtr

ade-

rela

ted

hom

icid

edum

my

rate

rate

dum

my

rate

dum

my

rate

rate

dum

my

rate

Full

sam

ple

Lim

ited

sam

ple

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

Pan

elA:Sho

rtestPaths

Pre

dic

ted

0.01

4***

1.17

50.

006

-0.5

14ro

ute

sdum

my

(0.0

05)

(1.2

00)

(0.0

06)

(1.1

64)

Pre

dic

ted

0.55

4*0.

460

route

sco

unt

(0.3

07)

(0.2

87)

One

route

0.01

7**

-6.0

640.

014

-5.2

78(0

.007

)(3

.758

)(0

.010

)(3

.421

)M

ore

than

0.01

110

.190

**-0

.000

6.17

9on

ero

ute

(0.0

08)

(4.7

02)

(0.0

10)

(4.4

93)

Pan

elB:Model

withCon

gestionCosts

Pre

dic

ted

0.01

7***

1.81

3**

0.01

9***

1.83

4**

route

sdum

my

(0.0

05)

(0.8

02)

(0.0

06)

(0.9

34)

Pre

dic

ted

-0.0

070.

001

route

sco

unt

(0.0

15)

(0.0

13)

One

route

0.01

02.

256

0.01

1.48

(0.0

06)

(1.6

38)

(0.0

07)

(0.9

56)

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eth

an0.

020*

**1.

639

0.02

3***

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ero

ute

(0.0

06)

(1.0

49)

(0.0

07)

(1.0

35)

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ipal

itie

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6918

6918

6918

6918

6915

6215

6215

6215

6215

62O

bse

rvat

ions

69,1

5369

,153

69,1

5369

,153

69,1

5357

,794

57,7

9457

,794

57,7

9457

,794

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(1

),(4

),(6

)an

d(9

)is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifa

dru

gtr

ad

e-re

late

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

agiv

enm

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

,an

dth

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(2

),(3

),(5

),(7

),(8

),an

d(1

0)

isth

ed

rug

trad

e-re

late

dh

om

icid

era

tep

er100,0

00

mu

nic

ipal

inh

ab

itants

.C

olu

mn

s(6

)th

rou

gh(1

0)li

mit

the

sam

ple

tom

un

icip

alit

ies

that

do

not

bord

era

mu

nic

ipali

tyth

at

has

exp

erie

nce

da

close

PA

Nvic

tory

.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

em

onth

xst

ate

and

mu

nic

ipal

ity

fixed

effec

ts,

asw

ell

asan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

to1

ifth

eP

AN

curr

entl

yco

ntr

ols

the

may

ors

hip

inth

em

un

icip

ali

ty.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rscl

ust

ered

by

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thx

stat

ear

ere

por

ted

inp

aren

thes

es.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Table A-53: A Reduced Form Spillovers Model: Confiscations

(1) (2) (3)

Domestic ConfiscationsDummy Value Value

RF predicted 0.002 0.056routes dummy (0.006) (0.067)

RF predicted 0.029routes count (0.057)

R-squared 0.39 0.44 0.44Municipalities 1869 1869 1869Observations 69,153 69,153 69,153

Notes: The dependent variable in column (1) is an indicator equal to 1 if domestic illicit drug confiscations aremade in a given municipality-month, and the dependent variable in columns (2) and (3) is the log value of domesticillicit drug confiscations (or 0 if no confiscations are made). The RF predicted routes dummy is an indicator equalto 1 if the municipality borders a municipality that has inaugurated a closely elected PAN mayor during the sampleperiod. The RF predicted routes count is a count variable equal to the number of bordering municipalities thathave inaugurated a closely elected PAN mayor during the sample period. All columns include month x state andmunicipality fixed effects. Standard errors clustered by municipality and month x state are reported in parentheses.* significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.

Table A-54: A Reduced Form Spillovers Model: Violence

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Dep. var.: Drug trade-related homicidedummy rate rate dummy rate

RF predicted -0.005 3.136routes dummy (0.007) (2.292)

RF predicted 2.204routes count (1.596)

One RF route -0.003 3.235(0.007) (2.443)

More than -0.017 2.522one RF route (0.014) (1.976)

R-squared 0.34 0.42 0.42 0.34 0.42Municipalities 1869 1869 1869 1869 1869Observations 69,153 69,153 69,153 69,153 69,153

Notes: The dependent variable in columns (1) and (4) is an indicator equal to 1 if a drug trade-related homicidesoccurred in a given municipality-month, and the dependent variable in columns (2), (3), and (5) is the drugtrade-related homicide rate per 100,000 municipal inhabitants. The RF predicted routes dummy is an indicatorequal to 1 if the municipality borders a municipality that has inaugurated a closely elected PAN mayor during thesample period. The RF predicted routes count is a count variable equal to the number of bordering municipalitiesthat have inaugurated a closely elected PAN mayor during the sample period, and analogously for the one RFroute and more than one RF route indicators. All columns include month x state and municipality fixed effects.Standard errors clustered by municipality and month x state are reported in parentheses. * significant at 10%, **significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.

Table A-55: Trafficking Model Parameter Estimates

(1) (2) (3)

Crossing Costs Fullparsimonious flexible congestion

model model costs

φt 62.34***[2.72](1.41)

φp 36.48***[2.07](1.40)

φQ1t 3.24*** 13.00***

[0.30] [1.27](0.25) (1.19)

φQ2t 13.19*** 9.29***

[2.14] [0.34](1.89) (0.33)

φQ3t 13.86*** 21.26***

[4.37] [0.54](4.08) (0.52)

φQ4t 18.81*** 20.22***

[0.86] [0.62](0.83) (0.57)

φsmallp 64.47*** 70.990***

[9.76] [1.29](9.16) (1.28)

φlargep 55.34*** 43.50**[8.43] [21.73](7.46) (17.03)

φint 0.015***[0.004](0.003)

δ 1.88*** 1.57*** 1.86***[0.05] [0.15] [0.17](0.04) (0.12) (0.16)

γ 0.11**[0.06](0.05)

κ 0.763*** 0.91*** 0.79***[0.07] [0.08] [0.07](0.06) (0.07) (0.06)

Notes: Column 1 reports the simulated method of moments parameter estimates for the model with parsimoniouscongestion costs on U.S. points of entry, Column 2 reports the parameter estimates for the model with flexiblecongestion costs on U.S. points of entry, and Column 3 reports the parameter estimates for the model withcongestion costs on both U.S. points of entry and interior edges. Conley (1999) standard errors are in brackets, androbust standard errors are in parentheses.

Tab

leA

-56:

Th

eD

ivers

ion

of

Dru

gT

raffi

c(A

ltern

ati

ve

Con

gest

ion

Mod

els

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

Full

Sam

ple

Lim

ited

Sam

ple

Full

Sam

ple

Dom

esti

cIl

lici

tD

rug

Con

fisc

atio

ns

Coca

ine

Con

fisc

atio

ns

Dum

my

Val

ue

Val

ue

Dum

my

Val

ue

Val

ue

Dum

my

Val

ue

Val

ue

Pan

elA:Con

gestionModel

(8Param

eters)

Pre

dic

ted

0.01

0***

0.10

6***

0.00

60.

063

0.00

30.

009

route

sdum

my

(0.0

04)

(0.0

41)

(0.0

04)

(0.0

48)

(0.0

03)

(0.0

27)

Pre

dic

ted

0.00

5-0

.002

-0.0

04ro

ute

sco

unt

(0.0

05)

(0.0

05)

(0.0

04)

Pan

elB:Con

gestionModel

(10Param

eters)

Pre

dic

ted

0.01

1***

0.12

8***

0.00

9**

0.10

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20.

014

route

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my

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04)

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41)

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04)

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43)

(0.0

03)

(0.0

25)

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dic

ted

0.00

1-0

.005

-0.0

05ro

ute

sco

unt

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04)

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04)

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04)

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ipal

itie

s18

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6918

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ions

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5369

,153

69,1

5357

,794

57,7

9457

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69,1

5369

,153

69,1

53

Notes:

Th

edep

end

ent

vari

able

inco

lum

ns

(1),

and

(4)

isan

indic

ato

req

ual

to1

ifd

om

esti

cil

lici

td

rug

con

fisc

ati

on

sare

mad

ein

agiv

enm

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

;th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(2

),(3

),(5

),an

d(6

)is

the

log

valu

eof

dom

esti

cil

lici

td

rug

con

fisc

ati

on

s(o

r0

ifn

oco

nfi

scati

on

sare

mad

e);

the

dep

end

ent

vari

ab

lein

colu

mn

(7)

isan

ind

icat

oreq

ual

to1

ifco

cain

eco

nfi

scati

on

sare

mad

ein

agiv

enm

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

;an

dth

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(8

)an

d(9

)is

the

log

valu

eof

con

fisc

ated

coca

ine

(or

0if

no

con

fisc

atio

ns

are

mad

e).

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mn

s(4

)th

rou

gh

(6)

lim

itth

esa

mp

leto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

that

do

not

bord

era

mu

nic

ipali

tyth

ath

asex

per

ien

ced

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ose

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tory

.P

anel

Ap

red

icts

traffi

ckin

gro

ute

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sin

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esh

ort

est

path

sm

od

el,

and

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elB

use

sth

em

od

elw

ith

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ges

tion

cost

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llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

em

onth

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ate

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mu

nic

ipal

ity

fixed

effec

ts.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rscl

ust

ered

by

mun

icip

ali

tyan

dm

onth

xst

ate

are

rep

ort

edin

pare

nth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at5%

,**

*si

gnifi

cant

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-57:

Vio

len

ceS

pil

lovers

(Alt

ern

ati

ve

Con

gest

ion

Mod

els

)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

Full

Sam

ple

Lim

ited

Sam

ple

Dep.var.:Drugtrad

e-relatedho

micide

Dep.Var.:

Drugtrad

e-relatedho

micide

dummy

rate

rate

dummy

rate

dummy

rate

rate

dummy

rate

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elA:Con

gestionModel

(8Param

eters)

Pre

dic

ted

0.01

4***

0.56

80.

013*

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035

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my

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04)

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21)

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05)

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86)

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ted

0.00

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020

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sco

unt

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22)

(0.0

19)

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094

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1on

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ute

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05)

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27)

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05)

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40)

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elB:Con

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eters

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ted

0.00

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ute

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16)

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ted

0.01

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unt

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24)

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23)

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06)

(0.8

34)

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0.00

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05)

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00)

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ipal

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5369

,153

69,1

5369

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Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(1

),(4

),(6

)an

d(9

)is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifa

dru

gtr

ad

e-re

late

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

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enm

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icip

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onth

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ed

epen

den

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lein

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mn

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),(3

),(5

),(7

),(8

),an

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0)

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ed

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e-re

late

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om

icid

era

tep

er100,0

00

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nic

ipal

inh

ab

itants

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olu

mn

s(6

)th

rou

gh(1

0)li

mit

the

sam

ple

tom

un

icip

alit

ies

that

do

not

bord

era

mu

nic

ipali

tyth

at

exp

erie

nce

da

close

PA

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tory

bet

wee

n2007

an

d2008.

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colu

mn

sin

clu

de

mon

thx

stat

ean

dm

un

icip

alit

yfi

xed

effec

ts.

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nd

ard

erro

rscl

ust

ered

by

mu

nic

ipali

tyan

dm

onth

xst

ate

are

rep

ort

edin

pare

nth

eses

.*

signifi

cant

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at5%

,**

*si

gnifi

cant

at1%

.

Tab

leA

-58:

Acc

ou

nti

ng

for

DT

OT

err

itory

wh

en

Pre

dic

tin

gR

ou

tes

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Con

fisc

atio

ns

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icid

esdum

my

valu

eva

lue

dum

my

rate

rate

dum

my

rate

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elA:Sho

rtestPathModel

Pre

dic

ted

0.00

8**

0.03

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009*

0.35

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ute

sdum

my

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04)

(0.0

44)

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05)

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09)

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dic

ted

0.01

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337*

route

sco

unt

(0.0

06)

(0.2

01)

One

route

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4**

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51(0

.007

)(1

.891

)M

ore

than

0.00

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618

one

route

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06)

(2.4

95)

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elB:Model

withCon

gestionCosts

Pre

dic

ted

0.00

7**

0.10

4***

0.00

7**

1.27

7ro

ute

sdum

my

(0.0

03)

(0.0

38)

(0.0

03)

(0.7

82)

Pre

dic

ted

0.00

40.

068*

route

sco

unt

(0.0

03)

(0.0

41)

One

route

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154*

(0.0

04)

(0.6

20)

Mor

eth

an0.

006

1.37

8on

ero

ute

(0.0

04)

(0.9

51)

Munic

ipal

itie

s18

6918

6918

6918

6918

6918

6918

6918

69O

bse

rvat

ions

69,2

6469

,264

69,2

6469

,264

69,2

6469

,264

69,2

6469

,264

Notes:

All

colu

mn

sin

clud

em

onth

xst

ate

and

mu

nic

ipali

tyfi

xed

effec

tsan

dom

itm

un

icip

ali

ties

that

exp

erie

nce

da

close

dP

AN

vic

tory

.S

tan

dard

erro

rscl

ust

ered

by

mu

nic

ipal

ity

and

mon

thx

stat

ear

ere

por

ted

inp

aren

thes

es.

*si

gn

ifica

nt

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

Tab

leA

-59:

Vio

len

ceS

pil

lovers

ina

Mod

el

that

Est

imate

sP

oli

tica

lC

ost

s

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

Full

Sam

ple

Lim

ited

Sam

ple

Dep.var.:Drugtrad

e-relatedho

micide

Dep.Var.:

Drugtrad

e-relatedho

micide

dummy

rate

rate

dummy

rate

dummy

rate

rate

dummy

rate

Pan

elA:20

07-200

8Elections

Pre

dic

ted

0.01

0***

0.81

4*0.

008*

0.98

3**

route

sdum

my

(0.0

04)

(0.4

58)

(0.0

04)

(0.4

94)

Pre

dic

ted

0.20

9*0.

171

route

sco

unt

(0.1

16)

(0.1

04)

One

route

0.01

3**

-1.9

470.

011

-0.5

95(0

.006

)(1

.834

)(0

.008

)(1

.608

)M

ore

than

0.00

9*2.

153*

*0.

006

1.84

3**

one

route

(0.0

05)

(1.0

71)

(0.0

05)

(0.9

21)

Obse

rvat

ions

69,1

5369

,153

69,1

5369

,153

69,1

5357

,794

57,7

9457

,794

57,7

9457

,794

Pan

elB:20

07-201

0Elections

Pre

dic

ted

0.01

1***

1.58

6**

0.01

0*0.

912

route

sdum

my

(0.0

04)

(0.6

43)

(0.0

06)

(0.7

13)

Pre

dic

ted

0.21

4**

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ute

sco

unt

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04)

(0.1

00)

One

route

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180.

009

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06)

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27)

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09)

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84)

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eth

an0.

009*

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490*

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011*

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ero

ute

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04)

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74)

Obse

rvat

ions

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8488

,984

88,9

8488

,984

88,9

8445

,913

45,9

1345

,913

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1345

,913

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(1

),(4

),(6

)an

d(9

)is

an

ind

icato

req

ual

to1

ifa

dru

gtr

ad

e-re

late

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

agiv

enm

un

icip

ali

ty-m

onth

,an

dth

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(2

),(3

),(5

),(7

),(8

),an

d(1

0)

isth

ed

rug

trad

e-re

late

dh

om

icid

era

tep

er100,0

00

mu

nic

ipal

inh

ab

itants

.C

olu

mn

s(6

)th

rou

gh(1

0)li

mit

the

sam

ple

tom

un

icip

alit

ies

that

do

not

bord

era

mu

nic

ipali

tyth

at

has

exp

erie

nce

da

close

PA

Nvic

tory

.A

llco

lum

ns

incl

ud

em

onth

xst

ate

and

mu

nic

ipal

ity

fixed

effec

ts.

Sta

nd

ard

erro

rscl

ust

ered

by

mu

nic

ipali

tyand

month

xst

ate

are

rep

ort

edin

pare

nth

eses

.*

signifi

cant

at

10%

,**

sign

ifica

nt

at

5%

,**

*si

gnifi

cant

at1%

.

Tab

leA

-60:

Eco

nom

icS

pil

lovers

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Full

sam

ple

Lim

ited

sam

ple

Mal

eF

emal

eF

orm

alIn

form

alF

emal

eIn

form

alpar

tici

pat

ion

sect

orlo

gw

ages

par

tici

pat

ion

wag

es

Pan

elA:Sho

rtestPaths

Pre

dic

ted

-0.1

24-0

.756

0.02

0-0

.023

-0.7

84-0

.030

route

sdum

my

(0.5

13)

(1.0

38)

(0.0

22)

(0.0

20)

(1.6

22)

(0.0

27)

Pan

elB:Model

withCon

gestionCosts

Pre

dic

ted

-0.2

42-1

.261

**0.

013

-0.0

22*

-1.5

58**

-0.0

28*

route

sdum

my

(0.3

02)

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70)

(0.0

12)

(0.0

13)

(0.6

73)

(0.0

17)

Sta

tex

quar

ter

FE

yes

yes

yes

yes

yes

yes

Munic

ipal

ity

FE

yes

yes

yes

yes

yes

yes

R2

0.52

0.79

0.18

0.09

0.79

0.09

Munic

ipal

itie

s88

088

087

987

170

970

3O

bse

rvat

ions

9,82

19,

821

407,

204

148,

302

7,88

711

4,63

3

Notes:

Th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

(1)

isav

erage

mu

nic

ipal

male

lab

or

forc

ep

art

icip

ati

on

,th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(2

)an

d(5

)is

aver

age

mu

nic

ipal

fem

ale

lab

orfo

rce

par

tici

pat

ion

,th

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

(3)

islo

gw

ages

of

form

al

sect

or

work

ers,

an

dth

ed

epen

den

tva

riab

lein

colu

mn

s(4

)an

d(6

)is

log

wag

esof

info

rmal

sect

orw

orke

rs.

All

colu

mn

sin

clu

de

qu

art

erx

state

an

dm

un

icip

ali

tyfi

xed

effec

ts.

Colu

mn

(1)

wei

ghts

by

the

squ

are

root

of

the

mu

nic

ipal

ity’s

mal

ep

opu

lati

onan

dco

lum

ns

(2)

and

(5)

wei

ght

by

the

squ

are

root

of

the

mu

nic

ipali

ty’s

fem

ale

pop

ula

tion

.T

he

sam

ple

inco

lum

ns

(5)

an

d(6

)ex

clu

des

mu

nic

ipaliti

esth

atb

ord

era

mu

nic

ipal

ity

that

has

exp

erie

nce

da

close

PA

Nvic

tory

.S

tan

dard

erro

rscl

ust

ered

by

mu

nic

ipali

tyan

dqu

art

erx

state

are

rep

orte

din

par

enth

eses

.*

sign

ifica

nt

at10

%,

**si

gnifi

cant

at

5%

,***

sign

ifica

nt

at

1%

.

A-2.9 Law Enforcement Allocation Table

A–78

Table A-61: Robustness of Policy Algorithm

(1)

Percentageincreasein totalcosts

Baseline (N = 250) 0.168N = 100 0.168N = 500 0.168Alternate between selecting edges with m = 1 and m = 2 0.105Alternate between selecting edges with m = 1, m = 2, and m = 3 0.106Select edge with m = 2 when k = 1 0.168Select edge with m = 3 when k = 1 0.168Select edge with m = 4 when k = 1 0.168Select edge with m = 5 when k = 1 0.168

Notes: The left column describes the variation in the policy algorithm (as described in theestimation appendix) and the right column gives the percentage increase in total trafficking costswhen the respective variant of the algorithm is used to select edges.

A-2.10 Map of Close PAN Elections

A–80

Fig

ure

A-1

:C

lose

Ele

ctio

ns

Notes:

Bla

ckci

rcle

sd

enot

eP

AN

vic

tori

esan

dgr

aysq

uare

sd

enote

PA

Nlo

sses

.T

he

sam

ple

isli

mit

edto

mu

nic

ipali

ties

wit

ha

vote

spre

ad

of

five

per

centa

ge

poi

nts

orle

ss.

A–81

A-2.11 Balance Figures for Pre-Characteristics

A–82

Figure A-2: Covariate Plots0

5010

015

020

0

−.05 0 .05PAN margin of victory

(a) Mun. taxes per capita (2005)

0.2

.4.6

.8


(b) PAN incumbent

−.2

0.2

.4.6


(c) PRD incumbent

.2.2

5.3

.35

.4.4

5


(d) % alternations (1976-2006)

−.4

−.2

0.2

.4


(e) PRI never lost (1976-2006)

−10

010

2030


(f) Population (2005)


200

400

600

800


(a) Population density (2005)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4


(b) Migrants per capita (2005)

23

45

67


(c) Income per capita (2005)

1020

3040

5060


(d) Malnutrition (2005)

56

78


(e) Mean years schooling (2005)

1520

2530


(f) Infant mortality (2005)

Figure A-4: Covariate Plots

05

1015

20


(a) Housecolds w/o access to sewage (2005)

−10

010

2030

40


(b) Housecolds w/o access to water (2005)

−1

−.5

0.5

1


(c) Marginality index (2005)

0.1

.2.3


(d) Road density (km/km2)

400

600

800

1000


(e) Distance U.S. (km)

500

1000

1500

2000


(f) Elevation (m)


24

68


(a) Slope (degrees)

−20

000

2000

4000

6000

8000


(b) Surface area (km2)

24

68

1012


(c) Average min. temperature, C (1950-2000)

1820

2224

2628


(d) Average max. temperature, C (1950-2000)

500

1000

1500

2000


(e) Average precipitation, cm (1950-2000)

A-2.12 Balance Figures for the Predicted Homicide Rate

A–87

Figure A-6: PAN victories and predicted homicides

0.2

.4.6

.81

Pre

dict

ed d

rug

hom

icid

e pr

obab

ility


(a) Predicted drug-related homicide probability

010

2030

4050

6070

80P

redi

cted

dru

g ho

mic

ide

rate


(b) Predicted drug-related homicide rate

0.2

.4.6

.81

Pre

dict

ed h

omic

ide

prob

abili

ty


(c) Predicted overall homicide probability

010

2030

4050

6070

8090

100

Pre

dict

ed h

omic

ide

rate


(d) Predicted overall homicide rate

Notes: This figure plots predicted homicide measures against the PAN margin of victory. The homicidemeasures are predicted using the characteristics in Table 1 and pre-period violence data. Each pointrepresents the average value of predicted homicides in vote spread bins of width one half of a percentagepoint. The solid line plots predicted values from an RD regression with separate vote spread polynomialsestimated on either side of the PAN win-loss threshold. The dashed lines show 95% confidence intervals.

A-2.13 McCrary Plots

A–89

Figure A-7: Vote Spread Density (2007-2008 Elections)

05

1015

20F

requ

ency

−.7 −.6 −.5 −.4 −.3 −.2 −.1 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7PAN margin of victory

PAN margin of victory in municipal elections (2007−2008)

Notes: This figure shows the frequency of mayoral elections (2007-2008) in one percentage point vote

spread bins. The solid line plots predicted values from a local linear regression of frequency on vote spread,

with separate vote spread trends estimated on either side of the PAN win-loss threshold. The dashed lines

show 95% confidence intervals. The bandwidth is chosen using the Imbens-Kalyanaraman bandwidth

selection rule (2009), and a rectangular kernel is used.

A–90

Figure A-8: Vote Spread Density (2007-2010 Elections)

010

2030

40F

requ

ency

−.7 −.6 −.5 −.4 −.3 −.2 −.1 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7PAN margin of victory

PAN margin of victory in municipal elections (2007−2010)

Notes: This figure shows the frequency of mayoral elections (2007-2010) in one percentage point vote

spread bins. The solid line plots predicted values from a local linear regression of frequency on vote spread,

with separate vote spread trends estimated on either side of the PAN win-loss threshold. The dashed lines

show 95% confidence intervals. The bandwidth is chosen using the Imbens-Kalyanaraman bandwidth

selection rule (2009), and a rectangular kernel is used.

A–91

A-2.14 Homicide RD Figures - Robustness

A–92

Figure A-9: Drug trade-related homicide RD figures (2007-2010 elections)0

.2.4

.6.8

1M

onth

ly p

roba

bilit

y of

dru

g−re

late

d ho

mic

ide


(a) Post-inauguration (extensive margin)

−20

−10

010

2030

40D

rug

hom

icid

e ra

te


(b) Post-inauguration (homicide rate)

0.2

.4.6

.81

Mon

thly

pro

babi

lity

of d

rug−

rela

ted

hom

icid

e


(c) Lame duck (extensive margin)

−20

−10

010

2030

40D

rug

hom

icid

e ra

te


(d) Lame duck (homicide rate)

0.2

.4.6

.81

Mon

thly

pro

babi

lity

of d

rug−

rela

ted

hom

icid

e


(e) Pre-election (extensive margin)

−20

−10

010

2030

40D

rug

hom

icid

e ra

te


(f) Pre-election (homicide rate)

Notes: This figure plots violence measures against the PAN margin of victory, with a negative margin indicating a PANloss. Each point represents the average value of the outcome in vote spread bins of width one half of a percentage point.The solid line plots predicted values, with separate quadratic vote spread trends estimated on either side of the PANwin-loss threshold. The dashed lines show 95% confidence intervals.

Figure A-10: All homicides RD figures (2007-2010 elections)0

.2.4

.6.8

1M

onth

ly p

roba

bilit

y of

hom

icid

e oc

curr

ing


(a) Post-inauguration (extensive margin)

−20

020

4060

8010

012

0O

vera

ll ho

mic

ide

rate


(b) Post-inauguration (homicide rate)

0.2

.4.6

.81

Mon

thly

pro

babi

lity

of h

omic

ide

occu

rrin

g


(c) Lame duck (extensive margin)

−20

020

4060

8010

012

0O

vera

ll ho

mic

ide

rate


(d) Lame duck (homicide rate)

0.2

.4.6

.81

Mon

thly

pro

babi

lity

of h

omic

ide

occu

rrin

g


(e) Pre-election (extensive margin)

−20

020

4060

8010

012

0O

vera

ll ho

mic

ide

rate


(f) Pre-election (homicide rate)

Notes: This figure plots violence measures against the PAN margin of victory, with a negative margin indicating a PANloss. Each point represents the average value of the outcome in vote spread bins of width one half of a percentage point.The solid line plots predicted values, with separate quadratic vote spread trends estimated on either side of the PANwin-loss threshold. The dashed lines show 95% confidence intervals.

Figure A-11: Drug trade-related homicide negative binomial RD figures−

200

2040

6080

Dru

g ho

mic

ide

rate


(a) Post-inauguration (2007-2008 elections)

020

40D

rug

hom

icid

e ra

te


(b) Post-inauguration (2007-2010 elections)

−20

020

4060

80D

rug

hom

icid

e ra

te


(c) Lame duck (2007-2008 elections)

020

40D

rug

hom

icid

e ra

te


(d) Lame duck (2007-2010 elections)

−20

020

4060

80D

rug

hom

icid

e ra

te


(e) Pre-election (2007-2008 elections)

020

40D

rug

hom

icid

e ra

te


(f) Pre-election (2007-2010 elections)

Notes: This figure plots violence measures against the PAN margin of victory, with a negative margin indicating a PANloss. Each point represents the average value of the outcome in vote spread bins of width one half of a percentage point.The solid line plots predicted values from a negative binomial regression, with separate vote spread trends estimated oneither side of the PAN win-loss threshold. The dashed lines show 95% confidence intervals.

Figure A-12: All homicides negative binomial RD figures−

200

2040

6080

100

120

Hom

icid

e ra

te


(a) Post-inauguration (2007-2008 elections)

020

4060

8010

0H

omic

ide

rate


(b) Post-inauguration (2007-2010 elections)

−20

020

4060

8010

012

0H

omic

ide

rate


(c) Lame duck (2007-2008 elections)

020

4060

8010

0H

omic

ide

rate


(d) Lame duck (2007-2010 elections)

−20

020

4060

8010

012

0H

omic

ide

rate


(e) Pre-election (2007-2008 elections)

020

4060

8010

0H

omic

ide

rate


(f) Pre-election (2007-2010 elections)

Notes: This figure plots violence measures against the PAN margin of victory, with a negative margin indicating a PANloss. Each point represents the average value of the outcome in vote spread bins of width one half of a percentage point.The solid line plots predicted values from a negative binomial regression, with separate vote spread trends estimated oneither side of the PAN win-loss threshold. The dashed lines show 95% confidence intervals.

Fig

ure

A-1

3:

Month

lyh

om

icid

eR

Dfi

gu

res

●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

−5005010

0

−6

−3

LD3

69

1215

1821

2427

LDM

onth

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(a)

Dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

●●● ● ●

●● ● ●●● ●●●

●● ● ●● ●

●● ●●● ● ● ●● ●●●● ● ●● ●● ●

●●● ●

●●●● ●

● ● ● ●●●

●●●● ● ●●● ●●●

●●●● ●

●● ●● ● ●●● ●●● ●● ● ●● ●● ●●

● ●●●●

●●●● ●

● ●●● ●● ●● ●● ● ●

●●●●● ●● ●

●●● ●

●● ●● ●● ●● ●●● ● ●

●● ●● ●● ●● ● ●

●●

● ●●●

●● ●

●●●● ●● ● ●● ●

●● ●● ●

● ●● ●●●● ●

●● ● ●●●

●● ● ●●●● ● ●

●● ●●

● ●●● ●●

● ●●● ●

●●●● ●

●●●

●●●●

●●

●● ●● ● ● ●● ●●●●●● ● ● ● ●●●● ●

● ●●● ●●

● ●● ●● ● ●●●

0

100

200 −

205

−19

0−

175

−16

0−

145

−13

0−

115

−10

0−

85−

70−

55−

40−

25−

10LD

520

LD5

20Q

uart

er

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

(b)

All

hom

icid

es

Notes:

InP

anel

A,

each

poi

nt

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

acl

ose

PA

Nvic

tory

on

the

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

tein

am

un

icip

alit

y-m

onth

.In

Pan

elB

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

ara

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

acl

ose

PA

Nvic

tory

on

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tein

am

un

icip

alit

y-m

onth

.T

he

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

.

Fig

ure

A-1

4:

Tota

lh

om

icid

es

qu

art

erl

yR

Dest

imate

s(e

xte

nsi

ve

marg

in)

●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●●

−0.

3

0.0

0.3

0.6

−69

−65

−60

−55

−50

−45

−40

−35

−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

LD1

48

LD1

47

Qua

rter

Homicide Probability

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

Notes:

Eac

hp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

acl

ose

PA

Nvic

tory

on

wh

eth

era

hom

icid

eocc

ure

din

am

un

icip

ali

ty-q

uart

er.

Th

eli

nes

plo

t95

%co

nfi

den

cein

terv

als.

Fig

ure

A-1

5:

PA

NV

icto

ries

an

dH

om

icid

es

(4%

ban

dw

idth

)

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

−0.

6

−0.

3

0.0

0.3

0.6

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er


Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(a)

Dru

g-re

late

dh

omic

ides

(exte

nsi

ve

marg

in)

●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

04080120

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(b)

Dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

0

100

200

−69

−65

−60

−55

−50

−45

−40

−35

−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

LD1

48

LD1

47

Qua

rter

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

(c)

All

hom

icid

es

Notes:

InP

anel

A,

each

poi

nt

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

aver

age

pro

bab

ilit

yth

at

ad

rug-r

elate

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

am

un

icip

alit

y-m

onth

.In

Pan

elB

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

ara

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

arte

r.In

Pan

elC

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

art

er.

All

regre

ssio

ns

incl

ud

ea

qu

adra

tic

RD

pol

yn

omia

l,es

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esp

lot

90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rval

s.

Fig

ure

A-1

6:

PA

NV

icto

ries

an

dH

om

icid

es

(3%

ban

dw

idth

)

●●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●

−0.

4

0.0

0.4

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er


Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(a)

Dru

g-re

late

dh

omic

ides

(exte

nsi

ve

marg

in)

●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

050100

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(b)

Dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

0

100

200

−69

−65

−60

−55

−50

−45

−40

−35

−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

LD1

48

LD1

47

Qua

rter

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

(c)

All

hom

icid

es

Notes:

InP

anel

A,

each

poi

nt

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

aver

age

pro

bab

ilit

yth

at

ad

rug-r

elate

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

am

un

icip

alit

y-m

onth

.In

Pan

elB

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

ara

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

arte

r.In

Pan

elC

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

art

er.

All

regre

ssio

ns

incl

ud

ea

qu

adra

tic

RD

pol

yn

omia

l,es

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esp

lot

90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rval

s.

Fig

ure

A-1

7:

PA

NV

icto

ries

an

dH

om

icid

es

(2%

ban

dw

idth

)

●●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

−0.

5

0.0

0.5

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er


Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(a)

Dru

g-re

late

dh

omic

ides

(exte

nsi

ve

marg

in)

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

050100

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(b)

Dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

−10

00

100

200

−69

−65

−60

−55

−50

−45

−40

−35

−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

LD1

48

LD1

47

Qua

rter

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

(c)

All

hom

icid

es

Notes:

InP

anel

A,

each

poi

nt

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

aver

age

pro

bab

ilit

yth

at

ad

rug-r

elate

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

am

un

icip

alit

y-m

onth

.In

Pan

elB

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

ara

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

arte

r.In

Pan

elC

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

art

er.

All

regre

ssio

ns

incl

ud

ea

qu

adra

tic

RD

pol

yn

omia

l,es

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esp

lot

90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rval

s.

Fig

ure

A-1

8:

PA

NV

icto

ries

an

dH

om

icid

es

(13.3

%b

an

dw

idth

)

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

−0.

3

−0.

2

−0.

1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er


Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(a)

Dru

g-re

late

dh

omic

ides

(exte

nsi

ve

marg

in)

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

04080

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(b)

Dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

−5005010

0

150

200

−69

−65

−60

−55

−50

−45

−40

−35

−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

LD1

48

LD1

47

Qua

rter

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

(c)

All

hom

icid

es

Notes:

InP

anel

A,

each

poi

nt

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

aver

age

pro

bab

ilit

yth

at

ad

rug-r

elate

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

am

un

icip

alit

y-m

onth

.In

Pan

elB

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

ara

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

arte

r.In

Pan

elC

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

art

er.

All

regre

ssio

ns

incl

ud

ea

qu

adra

tic

RD

pol

yn

omia

l,es

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esp

lot

90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rval

s.

Fig

ure

A-1

9:

PA

NV

icto

ries

an

dH

om

icid

es

(5%

ban

dw

idth

,fi

xed

eff

ect

s)

●●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●●

−0.

25

0.00

0.25

0.50

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er


Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(a)

Dru

g-re

late

dh

omic

ides

(exte

nsi

ve

marg

in)

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

0255075100

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(b)

Dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

−5005010

0

150

−69

−65

−60

−55

−50

−45

−40

−35

−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

LD1

48

LD1

47

Qua

rter

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

(c)

All

hom

icid

es

Notes:

InP

anel

A,

each

poi

nt

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

aver

age

pro

bab

ilit

yth

at

ad

rug-r

elate

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

am

un

icip

alit

y-m

onth

.In

Pan

elB

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

ara

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

arte

r.In

Pan

elC

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

art

er.

All

regre

ssio

ns

incl

ud

ea

qu

adra

tic

RD

pol

yn

omia

l,es

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esp

lot

90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rval

s.

Fig

ure

A-2

0:

PA

NV

icto

ries

an

dH

om

icid

es

(4%

ban

dw

idth

,fi

xed

eff

ect

s)

●●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

−0.

6

−0.

3

0.0

0.3

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er


Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(a)

Dru

g-re

late

dh

omic

ides

(exte

nsi

ve

marg

in)

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

04080

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(b)

Dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

0

100

200

−69

−65

−60

−55

−50

−45

−40

−35

−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

LD1

48

LD1

47

Qua

rter

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

(c)

All

hom

icid

es

Notes:

InP

anel

A,

each

poi

nt

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

aver

age

pro

bab

ilit

yth

at

ad

rug-r

elate

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

am

un

icip

alit

y-m

onth

.In

Pan

elB

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

ara

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

arte

r.In

Pan

elC

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

art

er.

All

regre

ssio

ns

incl

ud

ea

qu

adra

tic

RD

pol

yn

omia

l,es

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esp

lot

90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rval

s.

Fig

ure

A-2

1:

PA

NV

icto

ries

an

dH

om

icid

es

(3%

ban

dw

idth

,fi

xed

eff

ect

s)

●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

−0.

6

−0.

3

0.0

0.3

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er


Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(a)

Dru

g-re

late

dh

omic

ides

(exte

nsi

ve

marg

in)

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

050100

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(b)

Dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

0

100

200

−69

−65

−60

−55

−50

−45

−40

−35

−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

LD1

48

LD1

47

Qua

rter

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

(c)

All

hom

icid

es

Notes:

InP

anel

A,

each

poi

nt

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

aver

age

pro

bab

ilit

yth

at

ad

rug-r

elate

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

am

un

icip

alit

y-m

onth

.In

Pan

elB

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

ara

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

arte

r.In

Pan

elC

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

art

er.

All

regre

ssio

ns

incl

ud

ea

qu

adra

tic

RD

pol

yn

omia

l,es

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esp

lot

90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rval

s.

Fig

ure

A-2

2:

PA

NV

icto

ries

an

dH

om

icid

es

(2%

ban

dw

idth

,fi

xed

eff

ect

s)

●●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

−0.

5

0.0

0.5

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er


Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(a)

Dru

g-re

late

dh

omic

ides

(exte

nsi

ve

marg

in)

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

−5005010

0

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(b)

Dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

●●

●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

0

100

200

−69

−65

−60

−55

−50

−45

−40

−35

−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

LD1

48

LD1

47

Qua

rter

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

(c)

All

hom

icid

es

Notes:

InP

anel

A,

each

poi

nt

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

aver

age

pro

bab

ilit

yth

at

ad

rug-r

elate

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

am

un

icip

alit

y-m

onth

.In

Pan

elB

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

ara

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

arte

r.In

Pan

elC

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

art

er.

All

regre

ssio

ns

incl

ud

ea

qu

adra

tic

RD

pol

yn

omia

l,es

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esp

lot

90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rval

s.

Fig

ure

A-2

3:

PA

NV

icto

ries

an

dH

om

icid

es

(13.3

%b

an

dw

idth

,fi

xed

eff

ect

s)

●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

−0.

2

−0.

1

0.0

0.1

0.2

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er


Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(a)

Dru

g-re

late

dh

omic

ides

(exte

nsi

ve

marg

in)

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

0255075

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(b)

Dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

−5005010

0

150

−69

−65

−60

−55

−50

−45

−40

−35

−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

LD1

48

LD1

47

Qua

rter

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

(c)

All

hom

icid

es

Notes:

InP

anel

A,

each

poi

nt

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

aver

age

pro

bab

ilit

yth

at

ad

rug-r

elate

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

am

un

icip

alit

y-m

onth

.In

Pan

elB

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

ara

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

arte

r.In

Pan

elC

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

close

PA

Nvic

tori

eson

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tein

agiv

enqu

art

er.

All

regre

ssio

ns

incl

ud

ea

qu

adra

tic

RD

pol

yn

omia

l,es

tim

ated

sep

arat

ely

on

eith

ersi

de

of

the

PA

Nw

in-l

oss

thre

shold

.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esp

lot

90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rval

s.

A-2.15 Homicide RD Figures - Neighbors’ Homicide Rates

A–108

Fig

ure

A-2

4:

Neig

hb

or

Hom

icid

eR

DF

igu

res

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●●

●

−0.

50

−0.

25

0.00

0.25

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er


Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(a)

Dru

g-re

late

dh

omic

ides

(exte

nsi

ve

marg

in)

●●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●

−40

−200204060

−2

−1

LD1

23

45

67

89

LDQ

uart

er

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

2

(b)

Dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

te

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

−5005010

0

−69

−65

−60

−55

−50

−45

−40

−35

−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

LD1

48

LD1

47

Qua

rter

Homicide Rate

Per

iod

● ● ● ● ●

Pre

−pe

riod

Lam

e D

uck

1

Pos

t Ter

m 1

Lam

e D

uck

2

Pos

t Ter

m 2

(c)

All

hom

icid

es

Notes:

InP

anel

A,

each

poi

nt

plo

tsa

sep

arat

eR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

acl

ose

PA

Nvic

tory

on

wh

eth

era

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

eocc

urr

edin

am

unic

ipali

ty’s

bor

der

ing

mu

nic

ipal

itie

s.In

Pan

elB

,ea

chp

oint

plo

tsa

sep

ara

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

acl

ose

PA

Nvic

tory

on

the

dru

g-r

elate

dh

om

icid

era

tein

am

un

icip

alit

y’s

bor

der

ing

mu

nic

ipal

itie

s.In

Pan

elC

,ea

chp

oin

tp

lots

ase

para

teR

Des

tim

ate

of

the

imp

act

of

acl

ose

PA

Nvic

tory

on

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tein

am

un

icip

alit

y’s

bor

der

ing

mu

nic

ipal

itie

s.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esplo

t90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

.

A-2.16 Robustness to Varying the Length of the Analysis Period

Fig

ure

A-2

5:

Rob

ust

ness

top

eri

od

len

gth

:d

rug-r

ela

ted

hom

icid

es

●●

●●

●●

−200204060

12

34

56

Pre

−pe

riod

leng

th (

mon

ths)

Coefficient

(a)

Pre

-per

iod

●●

●●

●

−200204060

12

34

5La

me

duck

per

iod

leng

th (

mon

ths)

Coefficient

(b)

Lam

ed

uck

per

iod

●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

−200204060

15

1015

2025

3035

Pos

t−pe

riod

leng

th (

mon

ths)

Coefficient

(c)

Post

per

iod

Notes:

Pan

elA

rep

orts

RD

esti

mat

esof

the

imp

act

ofP

AN

vic

tori

eson

the

dru

gtr

ad

e-re

late

dh

om

icid

era

tefr

om

sep

ara

tere

gre

ssio

ns

that

vary

the

len

gth

of

the

pre

-per

iod

from

one

tosi

xm

onth

s.P

anel

Bva

ries

the

len

gth

of

the

lam

ed

uck

per

iod

,an

dP

an

elC

vari

esth

ele

ngth

of

the

post

-per

iod

.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rval

s,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esp

lot

90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

.

Fig

ure

A-2

6:

Rob

ust

ness

top

eri

od

len

gth

:overa

llh

om

icid

es

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

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−25025507510

0

2040

6080

100

120

140

160

180

200

Pre

−pe

riod

leng

th (

mon

ths)

Coefficient

(a)

Pre

-per

iod

●●

●●

●

−25025507510

0

Lam

e du

ck p

erio

d le

ngth

(m

onth

s)

Coefficient

(b)

Lam

ed

uck

per

iod

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

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●

−25025507510

0

510

1520

2530

3540

4550

55P

ost−

perio

d le

ngth

(m

onth

s)

Coefficient

(c)

Post

per

iod

Notes:

Pan

elA

rep

orts

RD

esti

mat

esof

the

imp

act

ofP

AN

vic

tori

eson

the

over

all

hom

icid

era

tefr

om

sep

ara

tere

gre

ssio

ns

that

vary

the

len

gth

of

the

pre

-per

iod

from

one

to20

5m

onth

s.P

anel

Bva

ries

the

len

gth

ofth

ela

me

du

ckp

erio

d,

an

dP

an

elC

vari

esth

ele

ngth

of

the

post

-per

iod

.T

he

thin

lin

esp

lot

95%

con

fid

ence

inte

rvals

,an

dth

eth

ick

lin

esp

lot

90%

con

fid

ence

inte

rval

s.

A-2.17 Spillovers Model Placeo Check

Figure A-27: Placebo Exercise

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.1

2D

ensi

ty

−3 s.d. −2 s.d. −1 s.d. mean +1 s.d. +2 s.d. +3 s.d. β∗

Coefficient on predicted routes dummy

Coefficients from Placebo Exercise

Notes: This figure plots the distribution of coefficients from the placebo exercise described in the text. β∗

is the baseline coefficient from Table 6, column (2). The mean of the distribution equals -0.005.

A-2.18 Law Enforcement Allocation Figure

Fig

ure

A-2

8:

Law

En

forc

em

ent

All

oca

tion

Notes:

Mu

nic

ipal

itie

sth

atco

nta

ina

sele

cted

edge

are

hig

hli

ghte

din

yell

ow.

Th

eav

erage

month

lyd

rug

trad

e-re

late

dh

om

icid

era

teb

etw

een

2007

an

d20

09is

plo

tted

inth

eb

ackgr

oun

d.

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