online assignment data um15081
DESCRIPTION
n,,,n,n,TRANSCRIPT
Month(t) Demand (x(t) Forecast (F(t))1 1652 2013 2394 2165 251 205.25 Alpha 0.156 269 212.117 299 220.658 332 232.409 357 247.34
10 410 263.7911 603 285.7212 449 333.3113 479 350.6714 569 369.9215 623 399.7816 591 433.2617 585 456.9218 702 476.1319 775 510.0120 652 549.7621 586 565.1022 760 568.2323 788 597.0024 817 625.6525 654.35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223240
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Demand (x(t)
Demand (x(t)
Problem 2 Alpha 0.2Beta
Month(t) Demand (x(t) S(t) T(t) F(t,1)1 1652 2013 2394 216 157.50 19.15 251 191.48 19.84 176.606 269 222.86 20.42 211.327 299 254.42 20.98 243.288 332 286.72 21.54 275.409 357 318.01 22.03 308.27
10 410 354.03 22.73 340.0411 603 422.01 24.99 376.7712 449 447.40 25.01 447.0113 479 473.73 25.08 472.4214 569 512.85 25.78 498.8115 623 555.51 26.62 538.6316 591 583.90 26.71 582.1317 585 605.49 26.46 610.6218 702 645.96 27.16 631.9519 775 693.49 28.18 673.1220 652 707.74 27.48 721.6721 586 705.37 25.99 735.2222 760 737.09 26.27 731.3623 788 768.29 26.52 763.3624 817 799.25 26.74 794.8125 825.99
Forecast(30) 959.70
Error Abs Error Abs(Error/Actual)*100
45.75 45.75 18.2356.89 56.89 21.1578.35 78.35 26.2199.60 99.60 30.00
109.66 109.66 30.72146.21 146.21 35.66317.28 317.28 52.62115.69 115.69 25.77128.33 128.33 26.79199.08 199.08 34.99223.22 223.22 35.83157.74 157.74 26.69128.08 128.08 21.89225.87 225.87 32.17264.99 264.99 34.19102.24 102.24 15.6820.90 20.90 3.57
191.77 191.77 25.23191.00 191.00 24.24191.35 191.35 23.42
MAPE 27.25
Forecast(30) 744.78744.83
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Demand (x(t)
Demand (x(t)
0.05
Error Abs Error (Error/Actual)*100
74.40 74.40 29.6457.68 57.68 21.4455.72 55.72 18.6456.60 56.60 17.0548.73 48.73 13.6569.96 69.96 17.06
226.23 226.23 37.521.99 1.99 0.446.58 6.58 1.37
70.19 70.19 12.3484.37 84.37 13.548.87 8.87 1.50
-25.62 25.62 4.3870.05 70.05 9.98
101.88 101.88 13.15-69.67 69.67 10.69
-149.22 149.22 25.4628.64 28.64 3.7724.64 24.64 3.1322.19 22.19 2.72
MAPE 12.87