online trends august 2009
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Some online drivers, observations & predictions
Björn Elmberg, Cybercom, August 2009
![Page 2: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Agenda
• 2 core drivers
What’s behind Internet’s ever growing significance
• 7 highly personal observations
Where are we now, what trends are emerging, what
can we expect from 2009/2010
• 3 predictions
Some thoughts about the future
![Page 3: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Two core drivers
![Page 4: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
”Technology is shifting the power away from the
editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media
elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control”
Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006
![Page 5: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006
”Technology is shifting the power away from the
editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media
elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control”
![Page 6: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Amaras law
We don’t like change. Technology has the
initiative. But the people make the momentum
Technology People
![Page 7: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
People are in control
• Dell hell -> Dell Idea storm
• Social media
• Freeconomics
• Long tail
• Folksonomy
• Brands on AdWords – open for everyone*
Advertising Age 2009-05-14
![Page 9: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
7 observations
![Page 11: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
1.
Web 3.0 is about context, structureand filtering (but not aboutmetadata)
![Page 12: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
• Search engines (Improved context)
– Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha
• Aggregators and filters
– Friendfeed, intelligent RSS readers, Tweetdeck
• Personalization
– When will aftonbladet.se become intelligent?
The drivers behind web 3.0
![Page 13: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
We will never be able to agree on one, common
framework for categorizing Internet content.
And we will not be thorough enough to categorize
everything. Always.
Thank god for search engines
The semantic web is utopian
![Page 14: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
2.
Augmented reality. Our digital and real worlds are merging
![Page 17: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
2009-09-21 e.g. name of the presenter18
![Page 19: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
2009-09-21 e.g. name of the presenter20
![Page 21: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
3.
Integrity online – we are not actingcoherently
![Page 22: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
On one hand, we are really engaging ourselves for integrity and the
right to stay anonymous online…
![Page 23: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
“You can make money
without doing evil.”
http://www.google.com/corporate/tenthings.html
![Page 24: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
…on the other hand we happily provide Google with information about
where we surf, what we mail, what we search etc etc. And for every
new content-related company Google buys we get happier.
![Page 25: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
• Gmail
• Google Wave
• Google Calendar
• YouTube
• Google Maps
• Google Docs
• Blogger
• Google Reader
• and of course… Google Search
![Page 26: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
• Google-controlled web trackers are tracking
users on 92 of the net's top 100 sites and about
88 per cent of almost 400,000 other domains
• 46 of the top 50 websites share data with their
affiliates
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/06/03/google_tracking_study/
![Page 27: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Google Research has developed a prototype system that
uses a home computer’s microphone to:
• listen to the ambient audio in a room,
• determine what is being watched on TV
• and offer web-based supplemental information,
services and shopping contextual to each program
being watched
http://googleresearch.blogspot.com/2006/06/interactive-tv-
conference-and-best.html
![Page 28: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
4.
”Facebook is underhyped”
http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
![Page 29: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
www.compete.com 2009-09-10
![Page 30: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
www.compete.com 2009-09-10
![Page 31: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
The world s most used website
![Page 32: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
• Average user has 120 friends on the site
• More than 100 million users log on to Facebook at
least once each day
• 6.7 billion people on the planet, 23.8 percent
(about 1.6 billion) have Internet access
• 8 percent regularly use Facebook.
• 92 percent of Internet users have yet to
discover it
www.internetworldstats.com
www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics
![Page 33: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
5.
”Twitter is overhyped”
http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
![Page 34: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
” Let's face it — Twitter is a fad. It has all the
attributes of a fad, including the one that people like
me don't get its appeal. It has risen quickly and it
will fall quickly. It's this year's Second Life”
Tom Davenport April 9, 2009
![Page 35: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
![Page 36: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
• 80% are followed by or follow at least one user. By comparison, only
60 to 65% of other online social networks' members had at least one
friend
• 36% of tweets mention a user in the form ‘@userhttp://www.danah.org/papers/TweetTweetRetweet.pdf
• 51% of people with Twitter accounts don't use it once a monthhttp://www.businessinsider.com/51-of-twitter-members-use-the-site-less-than-once-a-
month-clip-2009-5
• Among Twitter users, the median number of lifetime tweets per user
is one
• The top 10% of Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweetshttp://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/cs/2009/06/new_twitter_research_men_follo.html
![Page 37: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Twitter is a broadcasting channel
![Page 38: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
6.
Increased metric focus decreaseonline brand building
![Page 39: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the
trouble is I don’t know which half
John Wanamaker, 1838 – 1922
![Page 40: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
• Search ads will represent 42 percent of all online
advertising spending in 2009, while display ads will
account for just 21 percent
• Internet advertising in Sweden is expected to drop during
2009, whereas Search Engine Marketing is expected to
increase with 12 percent
• Companies seek direct conversion rather than branding when
the marketing spend gets squeezed
From display advertising to action-driven advertising
http://www.emarketer.com 2009-06-17
http://www.irm-media.se/ 2009-06-17
![Page 41: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
• You optimize what you measure
• It is difficult to measure brand value
• Brand value is long-term, metrics are often short-
term
• Improved user experience can often drastically
improve brand attitudes
![Page 42: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
7.
The risk aversive conformitydisease
![Page 43: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
How many music and appstores can you spot?
![Page 44: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Schibsted
• Viktklubb
• Tv.nu
• Tasteline
• E24.se
• Hitta.se
• Destination.se/Resdagboken
Bonnier
• GI Viktkoll
• Tv-planeten
• Recept.nu
• Va.se
• 118 100
• ?
![Page 45: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
1. Web 3.0 is about context, structure and filtering
2. Integrity online – we are not acting coherently
3. Augmented reality. Our digital and real worlds
are merging
4. Facebook is underhyped
5. Twitter is overhyped
6. Metric focus decrease online brand building
7. The risk aversive conformity disease
Summary
![Page 46: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Outlook and speculations
![Page 47: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Editorial and commercial content will become
increasingly blended and difficult to separate
– To attract younger audiences
– To increase ad revenues
– May generate new legislations
Advertising
![Page 48: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
![Page 49: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Brand advertising
There will be some kind of new advertising model not
yet invented
– Performance-based, but less tied to action and more
towards brand impression and engagement
– Pinstorm - A pure, pay-for-performance digital
advertising firm.
– VideoEgg – Cost per engagement
![Page 50: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Conformity disease
An opportunity lies for those who dare to be
different, to stand out
– Limited economies of scale
– Attention economy increasingly valid
– We want to be entertained
– We live in exponential times, the viral effect is
spreading and increasing, ”the viral long tail”
![Page 51: Online Trends August 2009](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052321/5568c240d8b42a7c7d8b4fd0/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Augmented reality
Applications that help to seamlessly integrate
our online and offline lives will be initially hyped
and then increasingly common