ontario rsp exhibit a summary of valuation selection ... · summary of valuation selection changes...

Actuarial Highlights – Quarterly ValuationRSP Valuation as at September 30, 2015

Ontario RSP

OntarioRSP

ExhibitA

SummaryofValuationSelectionChangesoverTime

Exhibit A

Facility Association Prior Accident Year Change in Estimated Ultimate Incurred AmountsRSP ‐ OntarioAmounts in $000s

as at September 30, 2015

Change in Selected Ultimates from Prior Quarter EndSep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐15 Dec‐14 Mar‐15 Jun‐15 Sep‐15 Dec‐15

AY2005 & Prior 9,892 (13,074) (327) (5,598) 5,664 (3,516) 1,151 (1,953) (802) 2,532 1,374 ‐

AY2006 3,114 1,311 4,917 (6,392) 3,933 (996) (374) 596 107 (1,195) 118

AY2007 905 (1,991) 1,267 (6,695) 724 401 (472) 30 211 (331) (382)

AY2008 21,234 3,646 8,579 (9,437) ‐ (2,236) (1,632) 539 (1,121) (34) (1,016)

AY2009 42,130 17,928 (12,325) 8,292 5,510 (2,767) (1,678) (143) (1,086) 140

AY2010 1,137 (25,024) 15,924 (7,623) (2,753) 2,159 (4,198) (506) (207)

AY2011 (24,648) (46,496) (37,295) (22,216) (10,291) (7,820) (2,646) (1,458)

AY2012 (73,980) (19,118) (43,289) (10,532) (17,497) (10,483) (4,777)

AY2013 (24,836) (46,961) (12,723) (11,744) (14,081) (8,414)

AY2014 (20,602) (1,954) (13,746) (6,646)

Total 35,145 32,023 33,500 (90,120) (85,939) (89,708) (139,914) (33,853) (44,963) (41,575) (21,268) ‐ PAY change including AY2014 change at Dec‐14 not shown in change from Prior Quarter End section: (141,658)

Change from Prior Quarter EndSep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐15 Dec‐14 Mar‐15 Jun‐15 Sep‐15 Dec‐15

AY2005 & Prior 5.2% (8.6%) (0.3%) (8.3%) 12.1% (7.8%) 3.5% (6.0%) (2.7%) 9.1% 5.2% ‐

AY2006 3.9% 1.9% 9.2% (15.5%) 15.9% (4.2%) (2.2%) 3.6% 0.7% (8.6%) 1.1%

AY2007 0.8% (2.4%) 1.9% (13.0%) 2.6% 2.0% (3.7%) 0.2% 1.7% (2.9%) (3.5%)

AY2008 11.5% 2.6% 7.4% (9.5%) ‐ (5.4%) (5.5%) 1.8% (3.8%) (0.1%) (4.1%)

AY2009 18.6% 9.7% (8.2%) 8.1% 7.4% (5.0%) (3.0%) (0.3%) (2.4%) 0.3%

AY2010 0.3% (9.4%) 8.4% (4.9%) (2.5%) 2.0% (4.0%) (0.5%) (0.3%)

AY2011 (7.9%) (18.1%) (19.9%) (18.4%) (8.5%) (7.6%) (3.0%) (1.8%)

AY2012 (21.2%) (8.1%) (22.6%) (5.5%) (10.3%) (7.3%) (3.8%)

AY2013 (8.1%) (20.3%) (5.5%) (5.6%) (7.3%) (5.0%)

AY2014 (8.2%) (0.8%) (6.0%) (3.2%)

Total 5.8% 3.5% 4.2% (9.2%) (6.9%) (8.4%) (13.1%) (4.2%) (4.6%) (4.8%) (2.7%) ‐

Note:

1.Change in Selected Ultimates as % of Beginning Unpaid is calculated as the Change in Selected Ultimates from Prior valuation date (for September 30th valuations for the last accident year, this change is estimated as 75% of the full year change in selected ultimates) over the selected nominal Unpaid at the prior valuation date

File: RSP 2015q3 ‐ presentation tables v03.xlsx FA Actuarial Printed: 12/17/2015 8:59 AM


Ontario RSP

OntarioRSP

ExhibitB

ExhibitB.1(totalgovernmentlines)

B.1.1 Summary of Nominal Results

B.1.2 Loss Ratios over Time

B.1.3.1 Comparison of Government Line Ultimates

B.1.3.2 Selected Losses by Method

B.1.3.3 Comparison of IBNR by Method

B.1.4.1 a priori LRs

ExhibitB.2(sameasabove,butforTPLgovtline)

ExhibitB.3(sameasabovebutforAccidentBenefitsgovtline)

ExhibitB.4(sameasabovebutforOthergovtline)

Exhibit B.1.1

Summary of Nominal Results

page 1 of 1Facility Association Valuation Results

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Indemnity & Allowed Claims

ExpenseCase Reserves

Recorded Indemnity & Allowed

Claims ExpenseSelected IBNR

Ultimate Indemnity & Allowed

Claims Expense

Unpaid Indemnity & Allowed

Claims Expense

$000s $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP $000s % EP

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]

database database = [3]/[2] = [7]-[3] = [5]/[2] database = [7]/[2] database = [9]/[2] = [7]+[9] = [11]/[2] = [5]+[9] = [13]/[2]

2010 & prior 2,850,260 2,915,972 102.3% 130,602 4.6% 3,046,574 106.9% 55,061 1.9% 3,101,635 108.8% 185,663 6.5%

2011 280,095 184,155 65.7% 59,306 21.2% 243,461 86.9% 10,528 3.8% 253,989 90.7% 69,834 24.9%

2012 301,960 161,367 53.4% 91,281 30.2% 252,648 83.7% 22,405 7.4% 275,053 91.1% 113,686 37.6%

2013 299,224 146,627 49.0% 100,783 33.7% 247,410 82.7% 53,218 17.8% 300,628 100.5% 154,001 51.5%

2014 271,085 110,279 40.7% 101,603 37.5% 211,882 78.2% 94,533 34.9% 306,415 113.0% 196,136 72.4%

2015 201,602 59,802 29.7% 59,028 29.3% 118,830 58.9% 112,694 55.9% 231,524 114.8% 171,722 85.2%

TOTAL 4,204,226 3,578,202 85.1% 542,603 12.9% 4,120,805 98.0% 348,439 8.3% 4,469,244 106.3% 891,042 21.2%

2014 & prior 4,002,624 3,518,400 87.9% 483,575 12.1% 4,001,975 100.0% 235,745 5.9% 4,237,720 105.9% 719,320 18.0%

Activity During Quarter vs EP

Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)

Change in Paid Indemnity &

Allowed Claims ExpenseChange in Case Reserves

Change in Recorded Indemnity &

Allowed Claims ExpenseChange in Selected IBNR

Change in Ultimate Indemnity &

Allowed Claims Expense

Change in Unpaid Indemnity &



[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]

database database =[17]/[16] database =[19]/[16] database =[21]/[16] database =[23]/[16] database =[25]/[16] database =[27]/[16]

2010 & prior 2,850,260 10,586 0.4% (7,398) (0.3%) 3,188 0.1% (3,164) (0.1%) 24 - (10,562) (0.4%)

2011 280,095 7,715 2.8% (5,946) (2.1%) 1,769 0.6% (3,228) (1.2%) (1,459) (0.5%) (9,174) (3.3%)

2012 301,960 6,705 2.2% (4,347) (1.4%) 2,358 0.8% (7,135) (2.4%) (4,777) (1.6%) (11,482) (3.8%)

2013 299,224 6,938 2.3% 1,556 0.5% 8,494 2.8% (16,908) (5.7%) (8,414) (2.8%) (15,352) (5.1%)

2014 271,085 6,621 2.4% 3,071 1.1% 9,692 3.6% (16,339) (6.0%) (6,647) (2.5%) (13,268) (4.9%)

TOTAL 4,002,624 38,565 1.0% (13,064) (0.3%) 25,501 0.6% (46,774) (1.2%) (21,273) (0.5%) (59,838) (1.5%)

Emergence During Quarter

Accident Year Beginning IBNRBeginning

Unpaid







$000s $000s $000s % Beg Unpaid $000s % Beg IBNR $000s % Beg Unpaid

[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]

database database [17] =[32]/[31] [21] =[34]/[30] [25] =[36]/[31]

2010 & prior 58,225 196,225 10,586 5.4% 3,188 5.5% 24 -

2011 13,756 79,008 7,715 9.8% 1,769 12.9% (1,459) (1.8%)

2012 29,540 125,168 6,705 5.4% 2,358 8.0% (4,777) (3.8%)

2013 70,126 169,353 6,938 4.1% 8,494 12.1% (8,414) (5.0%)

2014 110,872 209,404 6,621 3.2% 9,692 8.7% (6,647) (3.2%)

TOTAL 282,519 779,158 38,565 4.9% 25,501 9.0% (21,273) (2.7%)


File: 01a Summary RSP-ON 2015-Q3 v03.xlsx FA Actuarial Printed: 10/27/2015, 3:50 PM

Exhibit B.1.2

Loss Ratios over Time

page 1 of 1Facility Association Loss Ratios Over Time

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Sel Ult LR @ Sep 2015 Sel Ult LR @ Sep 2015

compared with prior compared with prior

Earned Paid Case Recorded Selected Ultimate Selected Selected Selected Selected Selected Sel Ult LR @ Jun 2015 Sel Ult LR @ Sep 2014

Accident Premium Claims Amt* Reserve Claims Amt* IBNR Claims Amt* Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Ultimate LR Claims Amt*

Year @ Sep 2015 @ Sep 2015 @ Sep 2015 @ Sep 2015 @ Sep 2015 @ Sep 2015 @ Sep 2015 @ Jun 2015 @ Mar 2015 @ Dec 2014 @ Sep 2014 Ultimate LR Claims Amt* Ultimate LR @ curr EP

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]

database database = [5]-[3] database database = [5]+[6] = [7]/[2] database database database database = [8]-[9] = [8]-[12] = [2]*[15]

AY1995 & Prior 529,214 512,825 8,606 521,431 - 521,431 - - - - - - 236 - 873

1996 197,412 159,371 4,530 163,901 (5) 163,896 83.0% 81.7% 81.3% 81.8% 81.8% 1.3% 2,540 1.2% 2,369

1997 152,922 111,048 160 111,208 20 111,228 72.7% 72.7% 72.8% 72.8% 72.7% - (5) - -

1998 103,106 83,849 696 84,545 83 84,628 82.1% 82.1% 82.2% 82.2% 82.3% - (25) (0.2%) (206)

1999 68,831 79,149 956 80,105 202 80,307 116.7% 116.7% 116.8% 116.8% 117.0% - (21) (0.3%) (206)

2000 69,659 84,972 15 84,987 293 85,280 122.4% 122.5% 122.4% 122.5% 122.8% (0.1%) (27) (0.4%) (279)

2001 80,047 99,974 934 100,908 556 101,464 126.8% 126.8% 126.8% 126.9% 126.8% - (5) - -

2002 113,770 132,965 1,279 134,244 903 135,147 118.8% 118.8% 118.9% 118.9% 119.2% - (26) (0.4%) (455)

2003 142,680 128,900 988 129,888 1,101 130,989 91.8% 92.6% 91.8% 91.8% 92.1% (0.8%) (1,086) (0.3%) (428)

2004 165,860 127,222 1,506 128,728 1,503 130,231 78.5% 78.5% 78.4% 78.3% 78.9% - 6 (0.4%) (663)

2005 158,965 115,195 1,228 116,423 1,858 118,281 74.4% 74.5% 74.5% 74.4% 74.5% (0.1%) (215) (0.1%) (159)

2006 163,889 157,386 6,689 164,075 3,236 167,311 102.1% 102.0% 102.7% 102.7% 102.3% 0.1% 117 (0.2%) (328)

2007 180,957 174,752 5,946 180,698 3,678 184,376 101.9% 102.1% 102.3% 102.2% 102.1% (0.2%) (381) (0.2%) (362)

2008 214,486 245,505 15,016 260,521 8,344 268,865 125.4% 125.8% 125.8% 126.4% 126.1% (0.4%) (1,017) (0.7%) (1,501)

2009 224,096 323,302 25,165 348,467 14,880 363,347 162.1% 162.1% 162.6% 162.6% 163.4% - 140 (1.3%) (2,913)

2010 284,366 379,557 56,888 436,445 18,409 454,854 160.0% 160.0% 160.2% 161.7% 160.9% - (207) (0.9%) (2,559)

2011 280,095 184,155 59,306 243,461 10,528 253,989 90.7% 91.2% 92.1% 94.9% 98.6% (0.5%) (1,459) (7.9%) (22,128)

2012 301,960 161,367 91,281 252,648 22,405 275,053 91.1% 92.7% 96.1% 101.9% 105.4% (1.6%) (4,777) (14.3%) (43,180)

2013 299,224 146,627 100,783 247,410 53,218 300,628 100.5% 103.3% 108.0% 111.9% 116.1% (2.8%) (8,414) (15.6%) (46,679)

2014 271,085 110,279 101,603 211,882 94,533 306,415 113.0% 115.5% 120.4% 120.9% 120.6% (2.5%) (6,647) (7.6%) (20,602)

2015 201,602 59,802 59,028 118,830 112,694 231,524 114.8% 117.1% 123.6% - - - -

TOTAL 4,204,226 3,578,202 542,603 4,120,805 348,439 4,469,244 106.3% 106.8% 107.7% 108.5% 109.2% (21,273) (139,406)

2014 & prior 4,002,624 3,518,400 483,575 4,001,975 235,745 4,237,720 105.9% 106.2% 107.3% 108.4% 109.1% (21,273) (139,406)

* Claims Amt = indemnity & allowed claims expense (where latter is allowed expense over and above the claims expense included in the expense allowance for member companies)



Exhibit B.1.3.1

Comparison of Government Line Ultimates

page 1 of 1Facility Association

Comparison of Selected Ultimate Incurred Claims Amounts by Coverage


Amounts in: $1,000s

RSP: Ontario

Prior Analysis (Jun 2015) Current Analysis (Sep 2015) Change from Prior Analysis

Accident YearThird Party

Liability

Accident

BenefitsOther Coverages Total

Third Party

Liability

Accident


Third Party

Liability

Accident


Prior to 1994 34,298 39,043 31,670 105,012 34,298 39,043 31,670 105,012 - - - -

1995 46,582 107,614 55,351 209,547 46,582 107,603 55,351 209,535 - (11) - (12)

1996 42,701 74,524 44,130 161,356 42,696 77,070 44,130 163,896 (5) 2,546 - 2,540

1997 39,482 38,674 33,077 111,233 39,482 38,669 33,077 111,228 - (5) - (5)

1998 32,260 28,996 23,398 84,653 32,260 28,971 23,398 84,628 - (25) - (25)

1999 31,291 30,937 18,100 80,328 31,291 30,916 18,100 80,307 - (21) - (21)

2000 31,622 32,188 21,498 85,307 31,622 32,161 21,498 85,280 - (27) - (27)

2001 36,311 42,853 22,306 101,469 36,310 42,848 22,306 101,464 (1) (5) - (5)

2002 50,407 54,591 30,176 135,173 50,407 54,565 30,176 135,147 - (26) - (26)

2003 48,913 52,434 30,727 132,075 47,903 52,360 30,727 130,990 (1,010) (74) - (1,085)

2004 51,550 52,962 25,713 130,225 51,548 52,975 25,709 130,231 (2) 13 (4) 6

2005 44,131 48,149 26,216 118,496 44,028 48,037 26,216 118,281 (103) (112) - (215)

2006 62,856 76,240 28,097 167,194 62,427 76,787 28,097 167,312 (429) 547 - 118

2007 68,044 81,107 35,606 184,757 67,801 80,968 35,607 184,376 (243) (139) 1 (381)

2008 81,008 146,426 42,449 269,882 80,541 145,880 42,445 268,866 (467) (546) (4) (1,016)

2009 98,003 224,081 41,123 363,207 98,461 223,802 41,083 363,347 458 (279) (40) 140

2010 132,962 276,040 46,059 455,061 132,959 275,808 46,086 454,854 (3) (232) 27 (207)

2011 97,428 114,591 43,429 255,448 95,637 114,743 43,609 253,990 (1,791) 152 180 (1,458)

2012 114,409 122,817 42,604 279,830 109,219 123,256 42,579 275,053 (5,190) 439 (25) (4,777)

2013 137,279 123,142 48,621 309,042 129,735 122,343 48,550 300,628 (7,544) (799) (71) (8,414)

2014 138,212 124,668 50,182 313,062 129,819 126,225 50,372 306,416 (8,393) 1,557 190 (6,646)

2015 71,732 61,229 26,705 159,666 102,176 90,489 38,858 231,524 30,444 29,260 12,153 71,858

Total 1,540,492 2,054,021 824,146 4,418,659 1,546,213 2,086,483 836,553 4,469,249 5,721 32,462 12,407 50,590

2014 & Prior 1,468,760 1,992,792 797,441 4,258,993 1,444,037 1,995,994 797,695 4,237,725 (24,723) 3,202 254 (21,268)

File: 01 Ultimate Selections RSP-ON 2015 Q3 v03.xlsm FA Actuarial Printed: 10/27/2015, 4:07 PM

Exhibit B.1.3.2

Selected Losses by Method


Estimated and Selected Ultimate Losses by Method


Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Actual Experience Ultimate Loss Estimates

Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 92,972 105,012 0 105,012 105,012 105,012 105,012 105,012

1994 200,791 201,546 5,338 206,884 206,884 206,884 206,884 103.0% 103.0% 103.0% 206,884 103.0%

1995 235,451 206,267 3,268 209,535 209,535 209,535 209,535 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 209,535 89.0%

1996 197,412 159,371 4,530 163,901 163,901 163,901 163,901 83.0% 83.0% 83.0% 163,896 83.0%

1997 152,922 111,048 160 111,208 111,229 111,229 111,208 72.7% 72.7% 72.7% 111,228 72.7%

1998 103,106 83,849 696 84,545 84,629 84,629 84,545 82.1% 82.1% 82.0% 84,628 82.1%

1999 68,831 79,149 956 80,105 80,307 80,307 80,105 116.7% 116.7% 116.4% 80,307 116.7%

2000 69,659 84,972 15 84,987 85,281 85,281 84,987 122.4% 122.4% 122.0% 85,280 122.4%

2001 80,047 99,974 933 100,908 101,464 101,464 100,908 126.8% 126.8% 126.1% 101,464 126.8%

2002 113,770 132,965 1,280 134,244 135,148 135,148 134,244 118.8% 118.8% 118.0% 135,147 118.8%

2003 142,680 128,900 988 129,888 130,993 130,993 129,888 91.8% 91.8% 91.0% 130,990 91.8%

2004 165,860 127,222 1,506 128,728 130,223 130,223 128,728 78.5% 78.5% 77.6% 130,231 78.5%

2005 158,965 115,195 1,228 116,423 118,266 118,266 116,423 74.4% 74.4% 73.2% 118,281 74.4%

2006 163,889 157,386 6,690 164,075 167,365 167,365 164,075 102.1% 102.1% 100.1% 167,312 102.1%

2007 180,957 174,752 5,947 180,698 184,444 184,444 180,698 101.9% 101.9% 99.9% 184,376 101.9%

2008 214,486 245,505 15,017 260,521 269,072 269,072 260,521 125.4% 125.4% 121.5% 268,866 125.4%

2009 224,096 323,302 25,166 348,467 363,781 363,781 348,467 162.3% 162.3% 155.5% 363,347 162.1%

2010 284,366 379,557 56,888 436,445 324,196 455,431 6.9% 93.1% 446,408 455,431 436,445 114.0% 160.2% 157.0% 160.2% 153.5% 454,854 160.0%

2011 280,095 184,155 59,306 243,461 274,481 253,921 (0.2%) 100.2% 253,879 256,090 243,461 98.0% 90.7% 90.6% 91.4% 86.9% 253,990 90.7%

2012 301,960 161,367 91,281 252,648 302,241 274,242 6.9% 93.1% 276,182 283,071 252,648 100.1% 90.8% 91.5% 93.7% 83.7% 275,053 91.1%

2013 299,224 146,627 100,783 247,410 314,100 299,666 21.2% 78.8% 302,730 307,350 247,410 105.0% 100.1% 101.2% 102.7% 82.7% 300,628 100.5%

2014 271,085 110,279 101,604 211,882 305,221 299,169 69.8% 30.2% 303,396 302,919 211,882 112.6% 110.4% 111.9% 111.7% 78.2% 306,416 113.0%

2015 201,602 59,802 59,028 118,830 303,564 260,549 86.4% 13.6% 297,718 146,868 118,830 231,524 114.8%

Total 4,204,224 3,578,201 542,608 4,120,808 1,823,804 4,490,513 1,880,313 4,399,263 4,120,808 4,469,250

*Earned Premium prior to data modernization (2009 / 2) was not allocated on a coverage level

**For 'off-half' valuation quarters (Mar and Sep), the current accident year (CAY) by method Ultimate Loss estimates ([5] to [22]) are aggregated from a coverage level


Exhibit B.1.3.3

Comparison of IBNR by Methods


Comparison of Estimated Ultimate Losses by Method


Coverage: Total

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Current Valuation Results (as at Sep 2015) Prior Valuation Results (as at Jun 2015) Change from Prior Valuation

Accident Year ELR Method*Link Ratio

MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2Selected IBNR Method**

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio

MethodBF Method* Selected IBNR Method**

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 105,012 105,012 105,012 (0) 105,012 105,012 - 105,012 - - -

1994 206,884 206,884 206,884 N/A 0 206,884 103.0% 206,636 N/A - 206,636 102.9% 248 - 248 0.1%

1995 209,535 209,535 209,535 N/A (0) 209,535 89.0% 209,547 N/A - 209,547 89.0% (11) - (11) -

1996 163,901 163,901 163,901 N/A (5) 163,896 83.0% 161,356 N/A - 161,356 81.7% 2,545 (5) 2,540 1.3%

1997 111,229 111,229 111,208 N/A 20 111,228 72.7% 111,234 N/A 22 111,233 72.7% (3) (2) (5) -

1998 84,629 84,629 84,545 N/A 83 84,628 82.1% 84,654 N/A 108 84,653 82.1% - (25) (25) -

1999 80,307 80,307 80,105 N/A 202 80,307 116.7% 80,328 N/A 225 80,328 116.7% 2 (23) (21) -

2000 85,281 85,281 84,987 N/A 293 85,280 122.4% 85,308 N/A 320 85,307 122.5% - (27) (27) (0.1%)

2001 101,464 101,464 100,908 N/A 556 101,464 126.8% 101,469 N/A 579 101,469 126.8% 18 (23) (5) -

2002 135,148 135,148 134,244 N/A 903 135,147 118.8% 135,174 N/A 960 135,173 118.8% 31 (57) (26) -

2003 130,993 130,993 129,888 N/A 1,101 130,990 91.8% 132,075 N/A 1,199 132,075 92.6% (987) (98) (1,085) (0.8%)

2004 130,223 130,223 128,728 N/A 1,503 130,231 78.5% 130,212 N/A 1,591 130,225 78.5% 94 (88) 6 -

2005 118,266 118,266 116,423 N/A 1,858 118,281 74.4% 118,476 N/A 1,976 118,496 74.5% (98) (118) (215) (0.1%)

2006 167,365 167,365 164,075 N/A 3,236 167,312 102.1% 167,187 N/A 3,372 167,194 102.0% 254 (136) 118 0.1%

2007 184,444 184,444 180,698 N/A 3,678 184,376 101.9% 184,755 N/A 3,923 184,757 102.1% (136) (245) (382) (0.2%)

2008 269,072 269,072 260,521 N/A 8,344 268,866 125.4% 269,884 N/A 9,190 269,882 125.8% (171) (846) (1,016) (0.4%)

2009 363,781 363,781 348,467 N/A 14,880 363,347 162.1% 363,206 N/A 15,544 363,207 162.1% 804 (664) 140 -

2010 324,196 455,431 446,408 455,431 436,445 N/A 18,409 454,854 160.0% 330,940 454,515 445,699 N/A 19,216 455,061 160.0% 600 (807) (207) -

2011 274,481 253,921 253,879 256,090 243,461 N/A 10,528 253,990 90.7% 280,928 253,697 254,408 N/A 13,756 255,448 91.2% 1,769 (3,228) (1,458) (0.5%)

2012 302,241 274,242 276,182 283,071 252,648 N/A 22,405 275,053 91.1% 309,322 275,844 279,346 N/A 29,540 279,830 92.7% 2,358 (7,135) (4,777) (1.6%)

2013 314,100 299,666 302,730 307,350 247,410 N/A 53,218 300,628 100.5% 321,689 303,015 308,503 N/A 70,126 309,042 103.3% 8,494 (16,908) (8,414) (2.8%)

2014 305,221 299,169 303,396 302,919 211,882 N/A 94,533 306,416 113.0% 313,352 294,552 306,313 N/A 110,872 313,062 115.5% 9,693 (16,339) (6,646) (2.5%)

2015 303,564 260,549 297,718 146,868 118,830 N/A 112,694 231,524 114.8% 153,676 143,907 154,209 N/A 83,341 159,666 117.1% 42,505 29,353 71,858 (2.3%)

Total 1,823,804 4,490,513 1,880,313 4,399,263 4,120,808 348,442 4,469,250 1,709,907 4,372,040 1,748,479 365,860 4,418,660 68,009 (17,421) 50,590

2014 & Prior 1,520,240 4,229,963 1,582,595 4,252,395 4,001,979 235,748 4,237,726 1,556,231 4,228,133 1,594,270 282,519 4,258,994 25,504 (46,774) (21,268)


**IBNR selected on a coverage level and aggregated to a Government Line (or Total) level


Exhibit B.1.4.1

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1

Facility Association

a priori LR model

for valuation: Sep 30, 2015

RSP Ontario

CURRENT PRIOR CHANGE

Accident

Period

Third Party

Liability

Accident

Benefits

Other

CoveragesTotal

Third Party

Liability

Accident

Benefits

Other

CoveragesTotal

Third Party

Liability

Accident

Benefits

Other

CoveragesTotal

2010 / 2 106.0% 100.0% 99.0% 102.0% 111.0% 103.0% 93.0% 104.0% (5.0%) (3.0%) 6.0% (2.0%)

2011 / 1 95.0% 89.0% 96.0% 93.0% 100.0% 91.0% 90.0% 95.0% (5.0%) (2.0%) 6.0% (2.0%)

2011 / 2 103.0% 102.0% 106.0% 103.0% 108.0% 106.0% 100.0% 106.0% (5.0%) (4.0%) 6.0% (3.0%)

2012 / 1 95.0% 90.0% 103.0% 94.0% 100.0% 92.0% 97.0% 96.0% (5.0%) (2.0%) 6.0% (2.0%)

2012 / 2 106.0% 104.0% 112.0% 106.0% 112.0% 107.0% 105.0% 109.0% (6.0%) (3.0%) 7.0% (3.0%)

2013 / 1 98.0% 95.0% 107.0% 98.0% 103.0% 97.0% 100.0% 100.0% (5.0%) (2.0%) 7.0% (2.0%)

2013 / 2 109.0% 115.0% 114.0% 112.0% 115.0% 118.0% 108.0% 115.0% (6.0%) (3.0%) 6.0% (3.0%)

2014 / 1 101.0% 107.0% 109.0% 105.0% 106.0% 110.0% 102.0% 107.0% (5.0%) (3.0%) 7.0% (2.0%)

2014 / 2 113.0% 132.0% 119.0% 121.0% 119.0% 136.0% 112.0% 124.0% (6.0%) (4.0%) 7.0% (3.0%)

2015 / 1 96.0% 122.0% 113.0% 108.0% 104.0% 127.0% 106.0% 113.0% (8.0%) (5.0%) 7.0% (5.0%)

2015 / 2 108.0% 143.0% 121.0% 123.0% 117.0% 149.0% 114.0% 128.0% (9.0%) (6.0%) 7.0% (5.0%)

2016 / 1 101.0% 128.0% 116.0% 113.0% 110.0% 133.0% 109.0% 118.0% (9.0%) (5.0%) 7.0% (5.0%)

2016 / 2 116.0% 144.0% 124.0% 128.0% 123.0% 157.0% 117.0% 135.0% (7.0%) (13.0%) 7.0% (7.0%)

2017 / 1 113.0% 122.0% 118.0% 117.0% 115.0% 140.0% 111.0% 123.0% (2.0%) (18.0%) 7.0% (6.0%)

2017 / 2 130.0% 143.0% 127.0% 134.0% 129.0% 164.0% 119.0% 140.0% 1.0% (21.0%) 8.0% (6.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Third Party Liability

Paid as % EP Case as % EP IBNR as % EPFavourable Unpaid as % EP Unfavourable Unpaid as % EP Prior Selected a priori LRsCurrent Selected a priori LRs

-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Accident Benefits


-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Other Coverages


-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Total


File: 01 RSP ON a priori LRs 2015 Q3 v04.xlsx FA Actuarial Printed: 10/27/2015, 4:14 PM

Exhibit B.1.4.2

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Total

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 96.0% 98.0% (2.0%)

2005 / 1 92.0% 94.0% (2.0%)

2005 / 2 108.0% 110.0% (2.0%)

2006 / 1 102.0% 104.0% (2.0%)

2006 / 2 118.0% 121.0% (3.0%)

2007 / 1 111.0% 113.0% (2.0%)

2007 / 2 129.0% 131.0% (2.0%)

2008 / 1 120.0% 123.0% (3.0%)

2008 / 2 137.0% 141.0% (4.0%)

2009 / 1 126.0% 129.0% (3.0%)

2009 / 2 143.0% 146.0% (3.0%)

2010 / 1 128.0% 130.0% (2.0%)

2010 / 2 102.0% 104.0% (2.0%)

2011 / 1 93.0% 95.0% (2.0%)

2011 / 2 103.0% 106.0% (3.0%)

2012 / 1 94.0% 96.0% (2.0%)

2012 / 2 106.0% 109.0% (3.0%) Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2013 / 1 98.0% 100.0% (2.0%)

2013 / 2 112.0% 115.0% (3.0%)

2014 / 1 105.0% 107.0% (2.0%)

2014 / 2 121.0% 124.0% (3.0%)

2015 / 1 108.0% 113.0% (5.0%)

2015 / 2 123.0% 128.0% (5.0%)

2016 / 1 113.0% 118.0% (5.0%)

2016 / 2 128.0% 135.0% (7.0%)

2017 / 1 117.0% 123.0% (6.0%)

2017 / 2 134.0% 140.0% (6.0%)

Current AHY: 2015 / 2

Jun 30, 2015 valuation result Adjust EP to 2015 / 2 rate level Adjust Ultimate Claims Amount to 2015 / 2 clms level

Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio

Rate ChangeDrift (RG,

class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]

val data val data val data val data =[4]/[1]industry avg

EP relativityassumption assumption

=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend

analysisassumption assumption

=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 84,027 70,919 104 71,928 85.6% 1.0646 1.0000 1.0000 89,453 1.4050 0.9776 1.0000 98,613 110.2% -

2005 / 1 81,302 52,446 291 53,557 65.9% 1.0909 1.0000 1.0000 88,695 1.4810 0.9801 1.0000 77,556 87.4% -

2005 / 2 77,661 62,712 1,072 64,939 83.6% 1.1207 1.0000 1.0000 87,038 1.2842 0.9802 1.0000 81,576 93.7% -

2006 / 1 77,001 60,930 1,149 63,181 82.1% 1.1375 1.0000 1.0000 87,591 1.3988 0.9767 1.0000 86,097 98.3% -

2006 / 2 86,888 95,387 6,354 104,013 119.7% 1.1466 1.0000 1.0000 99,626 1.2119 0.9778 1.0000 123,004 123.5% -

2007 / 1 89,401 81,732 2,723 86,055 96.3% 1.1534 1.0000 1.0000 103,116 1.2931 0.9796 1.0000 108,752 105.5% -

2007 / 2 91,559 92,224 4,156 98,702 107.8% 1.1606 1.0000 1.0000 106,262 1.1313 0.9781 1.0000 108,985 102.6% -

2008 / 1 106,182 116,382 6,905 127,313 119.9% 1.1622 1.0000 1.0000 123,400 1.1866 0.9797 1.0000 147,666 119.7% -

2008 / 2 108,301 128,853 8,552 142,569 131.6% 1.1488 1.0000 1.0000 124,414 1.0222 0.9809 1.0000 142,693 114.7% -

2009 / 1 108,298 144,281 9,724 160,498 148.2% 1.1267 1.0000 1.0000 122,021 1.0858 0.9801 1.0000 170,405 139.7% -

2009 / 2 115,797 177,993 15,667 202,709 175.1% 1.0966 1.0000 1.0000 126,988 0.9265 0.9792 1.0000 183,486 144.5% 2.0%

2010 / 1 133,264 214,157 27,579 253,101 189.9% 1.0529 1.0000 1.0000 140,310 0.9836 0.9789 1.0000 243,007 173.2% 1.7%

2010 / 2 151,103 158,295 35,813 201,960 133.7% 1.0082 1.0000 1.0000 152,336 1.2497 0.9777 1.0000 246,583 161.9% 1.9%

2011 / 1 139,283 93,359 26,848 125,620 90.2% 0.9843 1.0000 1.0000 137,089 1.3415 0.9797 1.0000 164,960 120.3% 1.9%

2011 / 2 140,811 83,081 38,405 129,829 92.2% 0.9679 1.0000 1.0000 136,295 1.1793 0.9762 1.0000 149,401 109.6% 1.7%

2012 / 1 149,814 74,076 43,716 128,563 85.8% 0.9529 1.0000 1.0000 142,761 1.2829 0.9757 1.0000 160,843 112.7% 1.8%

2012 / 2 152,146 80,586 51,912 151,267 99.4% 0.9494 1.0000 1.0000 144,452 1.1286 0.9762 1.0000 166,624 115.3% 15.0%

2013 / 1 150,944 69,559 45,037 140,926 93.4% 0.9500 1.0000 1.0000 143,388 1.2244 0.9752 1.0000 168,213 117.3% 15.0%

2013 / 2 148,285 70,130 54,190 168,116 113.4% 0.9583 1.0000 1.0000 142,102 1.0759 0.9742 1.0000 176,224 124.0% 15.0%

2014 / 1 135,154 53,423 39,734 142,778 105.6% 0.9663 1.0000 1.0000 130,596 1.1670 0.9751 1.0000 162,449 124.4% 14.9%

2014 / 2 135,993 50,235 58,797 170,283 125.2% 0.9901 1.0000 1.0000 134,646 1.0288 0.9737 1.0000 170,640 126.7% 14.9%

2015 / 1 136,360 37,442 38,883 159,666 117.1% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 136,360 1.1336 0.9748 1.0000 176,351 129.3% 15.0%

Total 2,599,574 2,068,202 517,610 2,947,573 113.4% 1.0382 1.0000 1.0000 2,698,939 1.1518 0.9774 1.0000 3,314,128 122.8% 100.7%

*indemnity & allowed claims expense 2014-2 AIX on industry 2014-2 AIX data weighted average: 125.3%

from FA Valuation Summary derived from 2015 / 2 on-levels selected: 122.0% 128.0% current prior

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

180.0%

200.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Total

Paid as % EP Case as % EP IBNR as % EP Favourable Unpaid as % EP

Unfavourable Unpaid as % EP Prior Selected a priori LRs Current Selected a priori LRs

(60.0%)

(40.0%)

(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

Selected Model Residuals -1 Std Dev +1 Std Dev -2 Std Dev +2 Std Dev


Exhibit B.1.5

Incurred Ultimate Comparison Exhibits

page 1 of 1Facility Association Comparison of Incurred Loss Development Estimates (Indemnity & Allowed Claims Expenses)

Amounts in: $1,000s

RSP Ontario

Valuation as at September 30, 2015

Total

Accident Half

YearBodily Injury Property Damage

Direct Comp

Property Damage

Total sum([1] to

[3])Medical Expense Disability Income Death Benefits Funeral Expense Supplementary

Uninsured

Automobile

Total sum([5] to

[10])

Underinsured

MotoristCollision Comprehensive Specified Perils All Perils

Total sum([12] to

[16])

Total sum([4] +

[11] + [17])

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18]

Prior to 2009 456,111 51,144 241,295 748,550 576,375 187,599 7,946 1,836 2,999 233,021 1,009,776 7,898 265,165 180,515 306 71,538 525,422 2,283,748

2009 / 1 30,842 693 12,911 44,446 79,483 12,911 139 37 - 4,203 96,773 480 9,715 4,672 38 4,768 19,673 160,892

2009 / 2 39,426 792 14,232 54,450 108,099 15,072 260 73 - 3,525 127,029 336 10,637 4,986 24 5,429 21,412 202,891

2010 / 1 49,385 1,033 15,907 66,325 144,684 17,949 145 38 - 3,231 166,047 848 10,921 4,370 14 5,696 21,849 254,221

2010 / 2 48,135 1,023 18,054 67,212 88,094 17,987 82 48 - 3,536 109,747 629 12,974 4,986 26 5,621 24,236 201,195

2011 / 1 27,553 777 14,475 42,805 45,362 13,002 55 15 - 2,900 61,334 1,292 11,197 4,533 17 4,696 21,735 125,874

2011 / 2 37,824 851 14,791 53,466 38,042 12,669 170 47 - 1,769 52,697 987 11,848 4,079 12 4,950 21,876 128,039

2012 / 1 37,123 895 13,902 51,920 38,665 14,080 68 41 - 2,545 55,399 1,151 10,831 3,948 1 4,226 20,157 127,476

2012 / 2 40,204 829 16,096 57,129 48,695 15,516 357 87 - 2,566 67,221 296 11,919 4,774 - 5,422 22,411 146,761

2013 / 1 41,887 904 15,572 58,363 40,966 13,404 273 54 - 2,081 56,778 969 12,524 3,876 - 4,614 21,983 137,124

2013 / 2 53,095 1,098 18,404 72,597 45,431 14,303 211 65 - 3,316 63,326 1,125 13,524 5,790 6 6,168 26,613 162,536

2014 / 1 35,400 1,013 15,765 52,178 37,325 12,131 67 26 - 2,246 51,795 919 13,413 3,942 3 6,224 24,501 128,474

2014 / 2 54,529 865 16,345 71,739 53,066 18,337 102 48 13 1,530 73,096 694 14,264 4,828 14 6,052 25,852 170,687

2015 / 1 40,633 647 18,492 59,772 38,193 15,039 76 22 7 1,965 55,302 176 15,579 3,655 - 6,103 25,513 140,587

Total 992,147 62,564 446,241 1,500,952 1,382,480 379,999 9,951 2,437 3,019 268,434 2,046,320 17,800 424,511 238,954 461 141,507 823,233 4,370,505

2014 / 2 &

prior951,514 61,917 427,749 1,441,180 1,344,287 364,960 9,875 2,415 3,012 266,469 1,991,018 17,624 408,932 235,299 461 135,404 797,720 4,229,918

Valuation as at June 30, 2015

Total

Accident Half


Direct Comp

Property Damage

Total sum([19] to


Uninsured

Automobile

Total sum([23] to

[28])

Underinsured


Total sum([30] to

[34])

Total sum([22] +

[29] + [35])

[19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36]

Prior to 2009 458,024 51,146 241,298 750,468 577,486 187,742 7,946 1,836 2,999 229,422 1,007,431 7,894 265,169 180,515 306 71,542 525,426 2,283,325

2009 / 1 30,234 689 12,911 43,834 79,692 12,934 139 37 - 4,206 97,008 475 9,709 4,672 38 4,768 19,662 160,504

2009 / 2 39,145 792 14,232 54,169 108,106 15,072 260 73 - 3,578 127,089 392 10,637 4,983 24 5,426 21,462 202,720

2010 / 1 48,363 1,033 15,908 65,304 144,706 17,652 145 38 - 3,219 165,760 884 10,920 4,370 14 5,696 21,884 252,948

2010 / 2 48,034 1,027 18,053 67,114 88,526 18,053 82 48 - 3,602 110,311 578 12,962 4,986 26 5,621 24,173 201,598

2011 / 1 27,698 778 14,473 42,949 45,254 12,878 55 15 - 2,777 60,979 956 11,208 4,524 17 4,700 21,405 125,333

2011 / 2 38,002 872 14,794 53,668 37,365 13,319 170 47 - 1,776 52,677 1,137 11,852 4,079 12 4,950 22,030 128,375

2012 / 1 38,093 895 13,901 52,889 37,562 13,934 68 41 - 2,544 54,149 1,122 10,831 3,950 1 4,230 20,134 127,172

2012 / 2 41,762 829 16,096 58,687 49,014 15,390 357 87 - 2,682 67,530 349 11,918 4,774 - 5,423 22,464 148,681

2013 / 1 42,223 904 15,574 58,701 40,702 13,922 271 54 - 1,874 56,823 943 12,521 3,879 - 4,615 21,958 137,482

2013 / 2 56,515 1,096 18,389 76,000 44,664 14,278 219 65 - 3,477 62,703 1,355 13,520 5,790 6 6,168 26,839 165,542

2014 / 1 35,637 992 15,770 52,399 36,601 12,076 37 21 - 2,025 50,760 878 13,420 3,955 3 6,233 24,489 127,648

2014 / 2 51,091 818 16,328 68,237 52,651 18,456 100 47 13 1,561 72,828 777 14,181 4,850 14 6,028 25,850 166,915

2015 / 1 42,382 570 18,326 61,278 40,828 13,950 49 16 7 1,868 56,718 307 15,909 3,522 - 6,179 25,917 143,913

Total 997,203 62,441 446,053 1,505,697 1,383,157 379,656 9,898 2,425 3,019 264,611 2,042,766 18,047 424,757 238,849 461 141,579 823,693 4,372,156

2014 / 2 &

prior954,821 61,871 427,727 1,444,419 1,342,329 365,706 9,849 2,409 3,012 262,743 1,986,048 17,740 408,848 235,327 461 135,400 797,776 4,228,243

Change

Total

Accident Half


Direct Comp

Property Damage

Total sum([37] to


Uninsured

Automobile

Total sum([41] to

[46])

Underinsured


Total sum([48] to

[52])

Total sum([40] +

[47] + [53])

[37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54]

Prior to 2008 (1,652) (2) (2) (1,918) (39) 209 - - - 2,725 2,345 5 (4) - - - (4) 423

2008 / 1 (67) - - (67) (199) (44) - - - (11) (254) (1) - - - (4) (5) (326)

2008 / 2 (194) - (1) (195) (873) (308) - - - 885 (296) - - - - - - (491)

2009 / 1 608 4 - 612 (209) (23) - - - (3) (235) 5 6 - - - 11 388

2009 / 2 281 - - 281 (7) - - - - (53) (60) (56) - 3 - 3 (50) 171

2010 / 1 1,022 - (1) 1,021 (22) 297 - - - 12 287 (36) 1 - - - (35) 1,273

2010 / 2 101 (4) 1 98 (432) (66) - - - (66) (564) 51 12 - - - 63 (403)

2011 / 1 (145) (1) 2 (144) 108 124 - - - 123 355 336 (11) 9 - (4) 330 541

2011 / 2 (178) (21) (3) (202) 677 (650) - - - (7) 20 (150) (4) - - - (154) (336)

2012 / 1 (970) - 1 (969) 1,103 146 - - - 1 1,250 29 - (2) - (4) 23 304

2012 / 2 (1,558) - - (1,558) (319) 126 - - - (116) (309) (53) 1 - - (1) (53) (1,920)

2013 / 1 (336) - (2) (338) 264 (518) 2 - - 207 (45) 26 3 (3) - (1) 25 (358)

2013 / 2 (3,420) 2 15 (3,403) 767 25 (8) - - (161) 623 (230) 4 - - - (226) (3,006)

2014 / 1 (237) 21 (5) (221) 724 55 30 5 - 221 1,035 41 (7) (13) - (9) 12 826

2014 / 2 3,438 47 17 3,502 415 (119) 2 1 - (31) 268 (83) 83 (22) - 24 2 3,772

2015 / 1 (1,749) 77 166 (1,506) (2,635) 1,089 27 6 - 97 (1,416) (131) (330) 133 - (76) (404) (3,326)

Total (5,056) 123 188 (4,745) (677) 343 53 12 - 3,823 3,554 (247) (246) 105 - (72) (460) (1,651)

2014 / 2 &

prior(3,307) 46 22 (3,239) 1,958 (746) 26 6 - 3,726 4,970 (116) 84 (28) - 4 (56) 1,675

Third Party Liability Accident Benefits Other Coverages




File: 01a RSP ON 2015-Q3 ultimate comparison exhibits v01.xlsx FA Actuarial Printed: 10/28/2015, 10:03 AM

Exhibit B.1.6

CAHY Selections



CAHY Selected Ultimate Incurred Amounts

Amounts in $s

Risk Sharing Pool - Ontario

Bodily Injury Property Damage

Direct Comp

Property Damage AccBen (indivis)

Uninsured

Automobile

Underinsured

Motorist

Collision (w All

Perils)

Comprehensive (w

Spec Perils) All Coverages

(1) Projected Earned Premium to December 31, 2015 43,610,822 1,945,006 18,328,482 42,038,918 1,597,589 979,725 15,696,985 3,989,514 128,187,041

(2) Paid Indemnity & Allowed Claims Expense at September 30, 2015 3,445 24,346 5,239,138 324,268 32,917 - 5,876,368 1,291,951 12,792,433

(3) Case Reserves at September 30, 2015 4,577,657 269,553 2,959,596 8,621,689 91,542 15,301 3,618,808 591,960 20,746,106

(4) Recorded Indemnity & Allowed Claims Expense at September 30, 2015 4,581,102 293,899 8,198,734 8,945,957 124,459 15,301 9,495,176 1,883,911 33,538,539

(5) A Priori Loss Ratio Estimate Ultimate 52,332,986 1,089,203 15,945,779 59,274,874 3,035,419 773,983 19,935,171 4,308,675 156,696,090

(6) A Priori Loss Ratio = (5) / (1) 120.0% 56.0% 87.0% 141.0% 190.0% 79.0% 127.0% 108.0% 122.2%

(7) Incurred Development Estimate Ultimate 31,163,053 1,109,179 17,363,204 45,358,615 1,028,374 126,690 19,660,726 4,151,374 119,961,214

(8) Incurred Development Loss Ratio = (7) / (1) 71.5% 57.0% 94.7% 107.9% 64.4% 12.9% 125.3% 104.1% 93.6%

(9) Bornhuetter Ferguson Estimate Ultimate 49,220,915 1,094,496 16,615,073 56,530,208 2,792,516 695,806 19,802,627 4,237,291 150,988,932

(10) Bornhuetter Ferguson Loss Ratio = (9) / (1) 112.9% 56.3% 90.7% 134.5% 174.8% 71.0% 126.2% 106.2% 117.8%

(11) User Defined Ultimate - Incurred (Zero IBNR) 8,959,115 574,769 16,034,004 17,495,323 243,400 29,924 18,569,414 3,684,305 65,590,254

(12) User Defined Loss Ratio = (11) / (1) 20.5% 29.6% 87.5% 41.6% 15.2% 3.1% 118.3% 92.3% 51.2%

(13) Weight Applicable to A Priori Loss Ratio Estimate 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

(14) Weight Applicable to Incurred Development Estimate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

(15) Weight Applicable to Bornhuetter Ferguson Estimate 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

(16) Weight Applicable to User Defined Estimate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

(17) Selected Ultimate = [(5) * (13)] + [(7) * (14)] + [(9) * (15)] + [(11) * (16)] 52,332,986 1,089,203 16,615,073 59,274,874 3,035,419 773,983 19,935,171 4,308,675 157,365,384

(18) Selected Ultimate Loss Ratio = (17) / (1) 120.0% 56.0% 90.7% 141.0% 190.0% 79.0% 127.0% 108.0% 122.8%

(19) Earned Premium at September 30, 2015 22,299,705 994,548 9,371,979 21,495,936 816,902 500,967 8,026,405 2,039,975 65,546,417

(20) Selected Ultimate Loss Ratio = (18) 120.0% 56.0% 90.7% 141.0% 190.0% 79.0% 127.0% 108.0% 122.8%

(21) Selected Ultimate at September 30, 2015 = (19) * (20) 26,759,646 556,947 8,495,854 30,309,270 1,552,114 395,764 10,193,534 2,203,173 80,466,302

(22) Selected IBNR at September 30, 2015 = round((21) - (4)) 22,179,000 263,000 297,000 21,363,000 1,428,000 380,000 698,000 319,000 46,928,000


Exhibit B.2.1



Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Third Party Liability

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium






Claims Expense


Claims Expense


[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]


2010 & prior 1,142,669 926,813 81.1% 53,278 4.7% 980,091 85.8% (466) - 979,625 85.7% 52,812 4.6%

2011 117,809 64,399 54.7% 30,339 25.8% 94,738 80.4% 899 0.8% 95,637 81.2% 31,238 26.5%

2012 126,925 56,394 44.4% 44,466 35.0% 100,860 79.5% 8,359 6.6% 109,219 86.1% 52,825 41.6%

2013 130,567 48,855 37.4% 54,306 41.6% 103,161 79.0% 26,574 20.4% 129,735 99.4% 80,880 61.9%

2014 126,564 35,043 27.7% 45,004 35.6% 80,047 63.2% 49,772 39.3% 129,819 102.6% 94,776 74.9%

2015 99,278 23,116 23.3% 23,625 23.8% 46,741 47.1% 55,435 55.8% 102,176 102.9% 79,060 79.6%

TOTAL 1,743,812 1,154,620 66.2% 251,018 14.4% 1,405,638 80.6% 140,573 8.1% 1,546,211 88.7% 391,591 22.5%

2014 & prior 1,644,534 1,131,504 68.8% 227,393 13.8% 1,358,897 82.6% 85,138 5.2% 1,444,035 87.8% 312,531 19.0%


Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)










[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]


2010 & prior 1,142,669 5,035 0.4% (5,207) (0.5%) (172) - (1,635) (0.1%) (1,807) (0.2%) (6,842) (0.6%)

2011 117,809 3,607 3.1% (2,956) (2.5%) 651 0.6% (2,442) (2.1%) (1,791) (1.5%) (5,398) (4.6%)

2012 126,925 3,066 2.4% (2,963) (2.3%) 103 0.1% (5,293) (4.2%) (5,190) (4.1%) (8,256) (6.5%)

2013 130,567 2,660 2.0% 1,036 0.8% 3,696 2.8% (11,240) (8.6%) (7,544) (5.8%) (10,204) (7.8%)

2014 126,564 1,023 0.8% 3,458 2.7% 4,481 3.5% (12,874) (10.2%) (8,393) (6.6%) (9,416) (7.4%)

TOTAL 1,644,534 15,391 0.9% (6,632) (0.4%) 8,759 0.5% (33,484) (2.0%) (24,725) (1.5%) (40,116) (2.4%)



Unpaid








[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]


2010 & prior 1,169 59,654 5,035 8.4% (172) (14.7%) (1,807) (3.0%)

2011 3,341 36,636 3,607 9.8% 651 19.5% (1,791) (4.9%)

2012 13,652 61,081 3,066 5.0% 103 0.8% (5,190) (8.5%)

2013 37,814 91,084 2,660 2.9% 3,696 9.8% (7,544) (8.3%)

2014 62,646 104,192 1,023 1.0% 4,481 7.2% (8,393) (8.1%)

TOTAL 118,622 352,647 15,391 4.4% 8,759 7.4% (24,725) (7.0%)



Exhibit B.2.2



Amounts in: $1,000s


RSP: Ontario






[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]


AY1995 & Prior 213,420 129,892 (1) 129,891 - 129,891 - - - - - - - - -

1996 64,608 42,533 168 42,701 (5) 42,696 66.1% 66.1% 65.7% 66.0% 66.0% - (5) 0.1% 65

1997 53,175 39,483 (1) 39,482 - 39,482 74.2% 74.2% 74.2% 74.2% 74.3% - - (0.1%) (53)

1998 38,010 32,259 1 32,260 - 32,260 84.9% 84.9% 84.9% 84.9% 85.0% - - (0.1%) (38)

1999 26,635 31,290 1 31,291 - 31,291 117.5% 117.5% 117.4% 117.5% 117.5% - - - -

2000 27,670 31,622 - 31,622 - 31,622 114.3% 114.3% 114.2% 114.2% 114.2% - - 0.1% 28

2001 31,638 36,310 - 36,310 - 36,310 114.8% 114.8% 114.8% 114.7% 114.6% - (1) 0.2% 63

2002 44,637 50,403 4 50,407 - 50,407 112.9% 112.9% 112.9% 112.9% 112.9% - - - -

2003 55,713 47,821 76 47,897 5 47,902 86.0% 87.8% 85.6% 85.4% 85.5% (1.8%) (1,011) 0.5% 279

2004 66,497 51,526 (1) 51,525 22 51,547 77.5% 77.5% 77.2% 77.5% 77.5% - (3) - -

2005 66,816 43,937 73 44,010 18 44,028 65.9% 66.0% 65.9% 65.5% 66.0% (0.1%) (103) (0.1%) (67)

2006 69,800 60,402 2,020 62,422 5 62,427 89.4% 90.1% 91.4% 91.1% 90.7% (0.7%) (429) (1.3%) (907)

2007 78,410 65,714 2,108 67,822 (21) 67,801 86.5% 86.8% 87.2% 87.5% 88.4% (0.3%) (243) (1.9%) (1,490)

2008 93,757 73,923 6,510 80,433 108 80,541 85.9% 86.4% 86.7% 86.9% 87.6% (0.5%) (467) (1.7%) (1,594)

2009 95,631 84,409 13,820 98,229 232 98,461 103.0% 102.5% 102.6% 102.7% 106.4% 0.5% 458 (3.4%) (3,251)

2010 116,252 105,289 28,500 133,789 (830) 132,959 114.4% 114.4% 115.8% 117.7% 122.5% - (3) (8.1%) (9,416)

2011 117,809 64,399 30,339 94,738 899 95,637 81.2% 82.7% 85.6% 86.8% 92.0% (1.5%) (1,791) (10.8%) (12,723)

2012 126,925 56,394 44,466 100,860 8,359 109,219 86.1% 90.1% 96.4% 102.9% 107.1% (4.0%) (5,190) (21.0%) (26,654)

2013 130,567 48,855 54,306 103,161 26,574 129,735 99.4% 105.1% 109.5% 112.0% 117.3% (5.7%) (7,544) (17.9%) (23,371)

2014 126,564 35,043 45,004 80,047 49,772 129,819 102.6% 109.2% 116.7% 117.5% 117.7% (6.6%) (8,393) (15.1%) (19,111)

2015 99,278 23,116 23,625 46,741 55,435 102,176 102.9% 107.4% 121.2% - - - -

TOTAL 1,743,812 1,154,620 251,018 1,405,638 140,573 1,546,211 88.7% 90.0% 91.6% 92.0% 93.3% (24,725) (98,240)

2014 & prior 1,644,534 1,131,504 227,393 1,358,897 85,138 1,444,035 87.8% 89.6% 91.4% 92.4% 93.7% (24,725) (98,240)




Exhibit B.2.3

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 102.0% 108.0% (6.0%)

2005 / 1 95.0% 99.0% (4.0%)

2005 / 2 107.0% 112.0% (5.0%)

2006 / 1 99.0% 104.0% (5.0%)

2006 / 2 111.0% 116.0% (5.0%)

2007 / 1 102.0% 107.0% (5.0%)

2007 / 2 114.0% 119.0% (5.0%)

2008 / 1 104.0% 109.0% (5.0%)

2008 / 2 114.0% 120.0% (6.0%)

2009 / 1 104.0% 109.0% (5.0%)

2009 / 2 115.0% 121.0% (6.0%)

2010 / 1 104.0% 109.0% (5.0%)

2010 / 2 106.0% 111.0% (5.0%)

2011 / 1 95.0% 100.0% (5.0%)

2011 / 2 103.0% 108.0% (5.0%)

2012 / 1 95.0% 100.0% (5.0%)


2013 / 2 109.0% 115.0% (6.0%)

2014 / 1 101.0% 106.0% (5.0%)

2014 / 2 113.0% 119.0% (6.0%)

2015 / 1 96.0% 104.0% (8.0%)

2015 / 2 108.0% 117.0% (9.0%)

2016 / 1 101.0% 110.0% (9.0%)

2016 / 2 116.0% 123.0% (7.0%)

2017 / 1 113.0% 115.0% (2.0%)

2017 / 2 130.0% 129.0% 1.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 34,174 28,571 (0) 28,587 83.6% 1.2730 1.0000 1.0000 43,502 1.4122 0.9583 1.0000 38,581 88.7% -

2005 / 1 33,905 20,602 2 20,613 60.8% 1.2738 1.0000 1.0000 43,187 1.4999 0.9623 1.0000 29,637 68.6% -

2005 / 2 32,910 23,332 173 23,518 71.5% 1.2861 1.0000 1.0000 42,327 1.3494 0.9625 1.0000 30,464 72.0% -

2006 / 1 32,706 24,943 792 25,764 78.8% 1.2926 1.0000 1.0000 42,275 1.4812 0.9575 1.0000 36,428 86.2% -

2006 / 2 37,093 35,020 2,021 37,093 100.0% 1.2904 1.0000 1.0000 47,864 1.3253 0.9575 1.0000 46,976 98.1% -

2007 / 1 38,499 30,198 1,011 31,205 81.1% 1.2880 1.0000 1.0000 49,587 1.4157 0.9608 1.0000 42,319 85.3% -

2007 / 2 39,913 35,199 1,582 36,838 92.3% 1.2816 1.0000 1.0000 51,154 1.2792 0.9587 1.0000 45,100 88.2% -

2008 / 1 46,492 37,020 2,887 40,007 86.1% 1.2698 1.0000 1.0000 59,033 1.3763 0.9598 1.0000 52,712 89.3% -

2008 / 2 47,264 36,581 4,042 41,001 86.7% 1.2535 1.0000 1.0000 59,246 1.2329 0.9615 1.0000 48,530 81.9% -

2009 / 1 46,600 36,868 6,656 43,834 94.1% 1.2358 1.0000 1.0000 57,587 1.3368 0.9586 1.0000 56,055 97.3% -

2009 / 2 49,031 46,794 7,189 54,169 110.5% 1.2154 1.0000 1.0000 59,595 1.2026 0.9566 1.0000 62,260 104.5% 3.1%

2010 / 1 55,043 52,432 13,042 65,474 119.0% 1.1951 1.0000 1.0000 65,780 1.3028 0.9555 1.0000 81,375 123.7% 3.1%

2010 / 2 61,209 49,647 17,841 67,488 110.3% 1.1770 1.0000 1.0000 72,043 1.2561 0.9570 1.0000 81,017 112.5% 3.4%

2011 / 1 58,130 30,504 11,880 43,242 74.4% 1.1190 1.0000 1.0000 65,046 1.3126 0.9612 1.0000 54,443 83.7% 3.3%

2011 / 2 59,679 30,287 21,416 54,186 90.8% 1.0744 1.0000 1.0000 64,117 1.1763 0.9573 1.0000 60,980 95.1% 3.1%

2012 / 1 62,667 25,762 23,336 53,665 85.6% 1.0586 1.0000 1.0000 66,337 1.2610 0.9565 1.0000 64,636 97.4% 3.1%

2012 / 2 64,258 27,566 24,092 60,744 94.5% 1.0489 1.0000 1.0000 67,402 1.1195 0.9567 1.0000 65,037 96.5% 13.7%

2013 / 1 64,659 22,739 24,171 60,841 94.1% 1.0409 1.0000 1.0000 67,302 1.1993 0.9563 1.0000 69,703 103.6% 13.7%

2013 / 2 65,910 23,457 29,099 76,438 116.0% 1.0231 1.0000 1.0000 67,431 1.0649 0.9553 1.0000 77,759 115.3% 13.7%

2014 / 1 62,013 17,221 18,007 62,682 101.1% 1.0125 1.0000 1.0000 62,789 1.1405 0.9561 1.0000 68,296 108.8% 13.8%

2014 / 2 64,581 16,800 23,539 75,530 117.0% 1.0102 1.0000 1.0000 65,238 1.0119 0.9538 1.0000 72,922 111.8% 13.9%

2015 / 1 66,767 14,676 15,395 71,732 107.4% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 66,767 1.1263 0.9562 1.0000 77,172 115.6% 14.0%

Total 1,123,503 666,219 248,172 1,074,650 95.7% 1.1443 1.0000 1.0000 1,285,609 1.2286 0.9573 1.0000 1,262,402 98.2% 102.0%



-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Third Party Liability



(50.0%)

(40.0%)

(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

-

10.0%

20.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2



Exhibit B.2.3a

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: BI

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 138.0% 148.0% (10.0%)

2005 / 1 123.0% 132.0% (9.0%)

2005 / 2 141.0% 151.0% (10.0%)

2006 / 1 128.0% 137.0% (9.0%)

2006 / 2 144.0% 154.0% (10.0%)

2007 / 1 129.0% 138.0% (9.0%)

2007 / 2 145.0% 155.0% (10.0%)

2008 / 1 130.0% 139.0% (9.0%)

2008 / 2 145.0% 156.0% (11.0%)

2009 / 1 128.0% 137.0% (9.0%)

2009 / 2 141.0% 151.0% (10.0%)

2010 / 1 125.0% 134.0% (9.0%)

2010 / 2 127.0% 136.0% (9.0%)

2011 / 1 111.0% 119.0% (8.0%)

2011 / 2 120.0% 128.0% (8.0%)

2012 / 1 108.0% 115.0% (7.0%)


2013 / 2 127.0% 136.0% (9.0%)

2014 / 1 115.0% 123.0% (8.0%)

2014 / 2 130.0% 139.0% (9.0%)

2015 / 1 104.0% 116.0% (12.0%)

2015 / 2 120.0% 134.0% (14.0%)

2016 / 1 110.0% 123.0% (13.0%)

2016 / 2 131.0% 142.0% (11.0%)

2017 / 1 127.0% 130.0% (3.0%)

2017 / 2 151.0% 150.0% 1.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 18,029 19,838 (0) 19,854 110.1% 1.6223 1.0000 1.0000 29,248 1.5019 0.9400 1.0000 28,030 95.8% -

2005 / 1 18,189 12,941 0 12,950 71.2% 1.5948 1.0000 1.0000 29,008 1.6488 0.9400 1.0000 20,071 69.2% -

2005 / 2 17,863 14,520 173 14,706 82.3% 1.5904 1.0000 1.0000 28,409 1.4424 0.9400 1.0000 19,939 70.2% -

2006 / 1 17,886 17,414 792 18,235 101.9% 1.5859 1.0000 1.0000 28,365 1.5834 0.9400 1.0000 27,140 95.7% -

2006 / 2 20,557 24,190 2,021 26,263 127.8% 1.5621 1.0000 1.0000 32,112 1.3852 0.9400 1.0000 34,196 106.5% -

2007 / 1 21,628 19,372 1,006 20,373 94.2% 1.5380 1.0000 1.0000 33,264 1.5207 0.9400 1.0000 29,123 87.6% -

2007 / 2 22,786 23,741 1,582 25,380 111.4% 1.5060 1.0000 1.0000 34,316 1.3303 0.9400 1.0000 31,738 92.5% -

2008 / 1 26,670 23,846 2,887 26,833 100.6% 1.4847 1.0000 1.0000 39,597 1.4605 0.9400 1.0000 36,838 93.0% -

2008 / 2 27,306 21,924 4,038 26,340 96.5% 1.4552 1.0000 1.0000 39,736 1.2777 0.9400 1.0000 31,635 79.6% -

2009 / 1 27,392 23,281 6,643 30,234 110.4% 1.4102 1.0000 1.0000 38,628 1.4026 0.9400 1.0000 39,862 103.2% -

2009 / 2 29,477 31,803 7,157 39,146 132.8% 1.3561 1.0000 1.0000 39,974 1.2270 0.9400 1.0000 45,150 112.9% -

2010 / 1 32,660 35,509 13,024 48,533 148.6% 1.3225 1.0000 1.0000 43,193 1.3471 0.9400 1.0000 61,456 142.3% -

2010 / 2 36,610 30,621 17,787 48,408 132.2% 1.2871 1.0000 1.0000 47,121 1.2918 0.9400 1.0000 58,781 124.7% -

2011 / 1 35,368 15,266 11,867 27,991 79.1% 1.1974 1.0000 1.0000 42,350 1.3777 0.9400 1.0000 36,249 85.6% -

2011 / 2 37,518 14,652 21,386 38,520 102.7% 1.1212 1.0000 1.0000 42,065 1.1951 0.9400 1.0000 43,273 102.9% -

2012 / 1 39,893 10,988 23,316 38,867 97.4% 1.0975 1.0000 1.0000 43,783 1.3009 0.9400 1.0000 47,529 108.6% -

2012 / 2 40,894 10,687 24,047 43,818 107.2% 1.0875 1.0000 1.0000 44,472 1.1284 0.9400 1.0000 46,478 104.5% 16.7%

2013 / 1 41,378 6,420 24,021 44,296 107.1% 1.0812 1.0000 1.0000 44,738 1.2284 0.9400 1.0000 51,149 114.3% 16.7%

2013 / 2 42,313 4,077 29,042 56,942 134.6% 1.0603 1.0000 1.0000 44,864 1.0655 0.9400 1.0000 57,032 127.1% 16.7%

2014 / 1 40,062 723 17,841 45,866 114.5% 1.0451 1.0000 1.0000 41,869 1.1599 0.9400 1.0000 50,008 119.4% 16.7%

2014 / 2 42,547 248 23,176 58,134 136.6% 1.0230 1.0000 1.0000 43,526 1.0062 0.9400 1.0000 54,985 126.3% 16.7%

2015 / 1 45,143 6 12,453 52,366 116.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 45,143 1.1528 0.9400 1.0000 56,746 125.7% 16.7%

Total 682,169 362,066 244,258 764,057 112.0% 1.2545 1.0000 1.0000 855,781 1.2634 0.9400 1.0000 907,408 106.0% 100.0%



-

30.0%

60.0%

90.0%

120.0%

150.0%

180.0%

210.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Bodily Injury



(70.0%) (60.0%) (50.0%) (40.0%) (30.0%) (20.0%) (10.0%)

- 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2



Exhibit B.2.3b

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: PD

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 39.0% 41.0% (2.0%)

2005 / 1 42.0% 44.0% (2.0%)

2005 / 2 45.0% 47.0% (2.0%)

2006 / 1 48.0% 50.0% (2.0%)

2006 / 2 50.0% 52.0% (2.0%)

2007 / 1 50.0% 52.0% (2.0%)

2007 / 2 50.0% 52.0% (2.0%)

2008 / 1 50.0% 53.0% (3.0%)

2008 / 2 51.0% 53.0% (2.0%)

2009 / 1 52.0% 55.0% (3.0%)

2009 / 2 54.0% 57.0% (3.0%)

2010 / 1 55.0% 58.0% (3.0%)

2010 / 2 55.0% 57.0% (2.0%)

2011 / 1 53.0% 56.0% (3.0%)

2011 / 2 52.0% 55.0% (3.0%)

2012 / 1 52.0% 54.0% (2.0%)


2013 / 2 53.0% 55.0% (2.0%)

2014 / 1 53.0% 56.0% (3.0%)

2014 / 2 54.0% 57.0% (3.0%)

2015 / 1 55.0% 58.0% (3.0%)

2015 / 2 56.0% 59.0% (3.0%)

2016 / 1 56.0% 59.0% (3.0%)

2016 / 2 57.0% 60.0% (3.0%)

2017 / 1 58.0% 60.0% (2.0%)

2017 / 2 58.0% 61.0% (3.0%)



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 999 342 0 342 34.2% 0.8613 1.0000 1.0000 860 1.2242 1.0000 1.0000 419 48.7% -

2005 / 1 931 377 2 379 40.8% 0.9156 1.0000 1.0000 852 1.2113 1.0000 1.0000 460 54.0% -

2005 / 2 858 524 - 524 61.1% 0.9717 1.0000 1.0000 834 1.2007 1.0000 1.0000 630 75.5% -

2006 / 1 825 398 (0) 398 48.2% 1.0100 1.0000 1.0000 833 1.1903 1.0000 1.0000 473 56.8% -

2006 / 2 902 705 0 705 78.2% 1.0452 1.0000 1.0000 943 1.1801 1.0000 1.0000 832 88.2% -

2007 / 1 937 677 0 677 72.3% 1.0429 1.0000 1.0000 977 1.1681 1.0000 1.0000 791 81.0% -

2007 / 2 971 767 0 767 79.0% 1.0375 1.0000 1.0000 1,007 1.1582 1.0000 1.0000 889 88.3% -

2008 / 1 1,126 641 0 641 56.9% 1.0330 1.0000 1.0000 1,163 1.1467 1.0000 1.0000 735 63.2% -

2008 / 2 1,128 811 0 811 71.9% 1.0352 1.0000 1.0000 1,168 1.1372 1.0000 1.0000 923 79.0% -

2009 / 1 1,079 687 2 689 63.9% 1.0499 1.0000 1.0000 1,133 1.1260 1.0000 1.0000 776 68.5% -

2009 / 2 1,088 792 0 792 72.8% 1.0780 1.0000 1.0000 1,173 1.1169 1.0000 1.0000 885 75.4% -

2010 / 1 1,630 1,033 0 1,033 63.4% 1.0871 1.0000 1.0000 1,772 1.1061 1.0000 1.0000 1,142 64.4% -

2010 / 2 1,804 1,018 8 1,027 56.9% 1.0666 1.0000 1.0000 1,924 1.0955 1.0000 1.0000 1,125 58.5% 10.0%

2011 / 1 1,600 778 - 778 48.6% 1.0330 1.0000 1.0000 1,653 1.0869 1.0000 1.0000 845 51.1% 10.0%

2011 / 2 1,580 849 23 872 55.2% 1.0014 1.0000 1.0000 1,582 1.0767 1.0000 1.0000 939 59.4% 10.0%

2012 / 1 1,676 893 1 896 53.4% 0.9846 1.0000 1.0000 1,650 1.0667 1.0000 1.0000 955 57.9% 10.0%

2012 / 2 1,785 827 0 829 46.5% 0.9771 1.0000 1.0000 1,744 1.0568 1.0000 1.0000 877 50.3% 10.0%

2013 / 1 1,942 857 42 976 50.3% 0.9738 1.0000 1.0000 1,891 1.0472 1.0000 1.0000 1,022 54.0% 10.0%

2013 / 2 2,030 1,016 23 1,098 54.1% 0.9731 1.0000 1.0000 1,975 1.0377 1.0000 1.0000 1,139 57.7% 10.0%

2014 / 1 1,852 786 87 1,026 55.4% 0.9771 1.0000 1.0000 1,810 1.0284 1.0000 1.0000 1,055 58.3% 10.0%

2014 / 2 1,933 500 89 1,067 55.2% 0.9895 1.0000 1.0000 1,913 1.0193 1.0000 1.0000 1,087 56.8% 10.0%

2015 / 1 2,006 99 202 1,163 58.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 2,006 1.0103 1.0000 1.0000 1,175 58.6% 10.0%

Total 30,682 15,379 481 17,490 57.0% 1.0059 1.0000 1.0000 30,863 1.0962 1.0000 1.0000 19,174 62.1% 100.0%



(5.0%)

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

45.0%

55.0%

65.0%

75.0%

85.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Property Damage



(20.0%) (15.0%) (10.0%)

(5.0%) -

5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2



Exhibit B.2.3c

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: DCPD

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 64.0% 64.0% -

2005 / 1 63.0% 63.0% -

2005 / 2 67.0% 67.0% -

2006 / 1 66.0% 66.0% -

2006 / 2 70.0% 70.0% -

2007 / 1 69.0% 68.0% 1.0%

2007 / 2 73.0% 73.0% -

2008 / 1 70.0% 70.0% -

2008 / 2 73.0% 73.0% -

2009 / 1 72.0% 71.0% 1.0%

2009 / 2 76.0% 76.0% -

2010 / 1 74.0% 74.0% -

2010 / 2 75.0% 75.0% -

2011 / 1 72.0% 72.0% -

2011 / 2 76.0% 76.0% -

2012 / 1 74.0% 74.0% -

2012 / 2 78.0% 78.0% - Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2013 / 1 75.0% 75.0% -

2013 / 2 78.0% 78.0% -

2014 / 1 76.0% 76.0% -

2014 / 2 83.0% 83.0% -

2015 / 1 82.0% 82.0% -

2015 / 2 87.0% 87.0% -

2016 / 1 85.0% 85.0% -

2016 / 2 90.0% 89.0% 1.0%

2017 / 1 88.0% 87.0% 1.0%

2017 / 2 93.0% 92.0% 1.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 15,146 8,390 (0) 8,390 55.4% 0.8843 1.0000 1.0000 13,394 1.2076 1.0000 1.0000 10,132 75.6% -

2005 / 1 14,785 7,284 0 7,284 49.3% 0.9014 1.0000 1.0000 13,327 1.2502 1.0000 1.0000 9,106 68.3% -

2005 / 2 14,189 8,288 0 8,288 58.4% 0.9221 1.0000 1.0000 13,084 1.1939 1.0000 1.0000 9,895 75.6% -

2006 / 1 13,995 7,131 (0) 7,131 51.0% 0.9344 1.0000 1.0000 13,077 1.2361 1.0000 1.0000 8,815 67.4% -

2006 / 2 15,634 10,125 0 10,125 64.8% 0.9472 1.0000 1.0000 14,809 1.1801 1.0000 1.0000 11,948 80.7% -

2007 / 1 15,934 10,149 6 10,155 63.7% 0.9631 1.0000 1.0000 15,346 1.2216 1.0000 1.0000 12,405 80.8% -

2007 / 2 16,156 10,691 (0) 10,691 66.2% 0.9799 1.0000 1.0000 15,831 1.1667 1.0000 1.0000 12,473 78.8% -

2008 / 1 18,696 12,533 0 12,534 67.0% 0.9774 1.0000 1.0000 18,273 1.2079 1.0000 1.0000 15,139 82.8% -

2008 / 2 18,830 13,846 4 13,849 73.5% 0.9741 1.0000 1.0000 18,342 1.1533 1.0000 1.0000 15,972 87.1% -

2009 / 1 18,129 12,900 11 12,911 71.2% 0.9833 1.0000 1.0000 17,826 1.1941 1.0000 1.0000 15,417 86.5% -

2009 / 2 18,466 14,199 32 14,232 77.1% 0.9990 1.0000 1.0000 18,448 1.1401 1.0000 1.0000 16,225 87.9% 8.3%

2010 / 1 20,753 15,891 18 15,908 76.7% 1.0030 1.0000 1.0000 20,815 1.1803 1.0000 1.0000 18,777 90.2% 8.3%

2010 / 2 22,795 18,007 46 18,053 79.2% 1.0089 1.0000 1.0000 22,998 1.1694 1.0000 1.0000 21,111 91.8% 8.3%

2011 / 1 21,162 14,461 13 14,473 68.4% 0.9944 1.0000 1.0000 21,043 1.1987 1.0000 1.0000 17,349 82.4% 8.3%

2011 / 2 20,581 14,787 8 14,794 71.9% 0.9946 1.0000 1.0000 20,470 1.1334 1.0000 1.0000 16,768 81.9% 8.3%

2012 / 1 21,098 13,882 19 13,901 65.9% 0.9908 1.0000 1.0000 20,904 1.1619 1.0000 1.0000 16,152 77.3% 8.3%

2012 / 2 21,579 16,052 45 16,096 74.6% 0.9818 1.0000 1.0000 21,186 1.0985 1.0000 1.0000 17,682 83.5% 8.3%

2013 / 1 21,339 15,462 107 15,569 73.0% 0.9688 1.0000 1.0000 20,673 1.1261 1.0000 1.0000 17,532 84.8% 8.3%

2013 / 2 21,567 18,364 34 18,398 85.3% 0.9548 1.0000 1.0000 20,592 1.0647 1.0000 1.0000 19,588 95.1% 8.3%

2014 / 1 20,099 15,711 78 15,790 78.6% 0.9508 1.0000 1.0000 19,110 1.0914 1.0000 1.0000 17,233 90.2% 8.3%

2014 / 2 20,101 16,052 273 16,329 81.2% 0.9850 1.0000 1.0000 19,799 1.0319 1.0000 1.0000 16,850 85.1% 8.3%

2015 / 1 19,618 14,570 2,739 18,202 92.8% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 19,618 1.0576 1.0000 1.0000 19,251 98.1% 8.3%

Total 410,652 288,774 3,433 293,104 71.4% 0.9715 1.0000 1.0000 398,965 1.1457 1.0000 1.0000 335,820 84.2% 100.0%



-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Direct Comp Property Damage



(20.0%)

(15.0%)

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

-

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2



Exhibit B.2.4.1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]

=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 43,733 34,298 0 34,298 34,298 34,298 34,298 34,298

1994 83,590 49,012 (0) 49,011 49,011 49,011 49,011 58.6% 58.6% 58.6% 49,011 58.6%

1995 86,097 46,582 (0) 46,582 46,582 46,582 46,582 54.1% 54.1% 54.1% 46,582 54.1%

1996 64,608 42,533 168 42,701 42,701 42,701 42,701 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 42,696 66.1%

1997 53,175 39,483 (0) 39,482 39,482 39,482 39,482 74.2% 74.2% 74.2% 39,482 74.2%

1998 38,010 32,259 0 32,260 32,260 32,260 32,260 84.9% 84.9% 84.9% 32,260 84.9%

1999 26,635 31,290 1 31,291 31,291 31,291 31,291 117.5% 117.5% 117.5% 31,291 117.5%

2000 27,670 31,622 0 31,622 31,622 31,622 31,622 114.3% 114.3% 114.3% 31,622 114.3%

2001 31,638 36,310 0 36,310 36,310 36,310 36,310 114.8% 114.8% 114.8% 36,310 114.8%

2002 44,637 50,403 3 50,407 50,407 50,407 50,407 112.9% 112.9% 112.9% 50,407 112.9%

2003 55,713 47,821 76 47,897 47,906 47,906 47,897 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% 47,903 86.0%

2004 66,497 51,526 (0) 51,525 51,548 51,548 51,525 77.5% 77.5% 77.5% 51,548 77.5%

2005 66,816 43,937 73 44,010 44,031 44,031 44,010 65.9% 65.9% 65.9% 44,028 65.9%

2006 69,800 60,402 2,020 62,422 62,490 62,490 62,422 89.5% 89.5% 89.4% 62,427 89.4%

2007 78,410 65,714 2,108 67,822 67,865 67,865 67,822 86.6% 86.6% 86.5% 67,801 86.5%

2008 93,757 73,923 6,509 80,433 80,746 80,746 80,433 86.1% 86.1% 85.8% 80,541 85.9%

2009 95,631 84,409 13,821 98,229 98,894 98,894 98,229 103.4% 103.4% 102.7% 98,461 103.0%

2010 116,252 105,289 28,500 133,789 121,662 133,537 - 100.0% 133,542 133,537 133,789 104.7% 114.9% 114.9% 114.9% 115.1% 132,959 114.4%

2011 117,809 64,399 30,339 94,738 116,828 96,271 1.6% 98.4% 96,603 97,274 94,738 99.2% 81.7% 82.0% 82.6% 80.4% 95,637 81.2%

2012 126,925 56,394 44,466 100,860 127,628 109,048 9.7% 90.3% 110,851 115,060 100,860 100.6% 85.9% 87.3% 90.7% 79.5% 109,219 86.0%

2013 130,567 48,855 54,307 103,161 134,991 130,961 30.2% 69.8% 132,179 132,855 103,161 103.4% 100.3% 101.2% 101.8% 79.0% 129,735 99.4%

2014 126,564 35,043 45,004 80,047 135,333 123,917 45.4% 54.6% 129,100 132,638 80,047 106.9% 97.9% 102.0% 104.8% 63.2% 129,819 102.6%

2015 99,278 23,116 23,626 46,741 133,357 109,407 88.8% 11.2% 130,675 63,989 46,741 102,176 102.9%

Total 1,743,813 1,154,619 251,020 1,405,639 769,799 1,550,588 732,951 1,522,799 1,405,639 1,546,215




Exhibit B.2.4.2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 34,298 34,298 34,298 (0) 34,298 34,298 - 34,298 - - -

1994 49,011 49,011 49,011 N/A 0 49,011 58.6% 49,011 N/A - 49,011 58.6% - - - -

1995 46,582 46,582 46,582 N/A (0) 46,582 54.1% 46,582 N/A - 46,582 54.1% - - - -

1996 42,701 42,701 42,701 N/A (5) 42,696 66.1% 42,701 N/A - 42,701 66.1% - (5) (5) -

1997 39,482 39,482 39,482 N/A 0 39,482 74.2% 39,482 N/A - 39,482 74.2% - - - -

1998 32,260 32,260 32,260 N/A 0 32,260 84.9% 32,260 N/A - 32,260 84.9% - - - -

1999 31,291 31,291 31,291 N/A 0 31,291 117.5% 31,291 N/A - 31,291 117.5% - - - -

2000 31,622 31,622 31,622 N/A 0 31,622 114.3% 31,622 N/A - 31,622 114.3% - - - -

2001 36,310 36,310 36,310 N/A 0 36,310 114.8% 36,311 N/A - 36,311 114.8% - - - -

2002 50,407 50,407 50,407 N/A 0 50,407 112.9% 50,407 N/A - 50,407 112.9% - - - -

2003 47,906 47,906 47,897 N/A 5 47,903 86.0% 48,913 N/A 14 48,913 87.8% (1,002) (9) (1,011) (1.8%)

2004 51,548 51,548 51,525 N/A 22 51,548 77.5% 51,550 N/A 25 51,550 77.5% - (3) (3) -

2005 44,031 44,031 44,010 N/A 18 44,028 65.9% 44,132 N/A 22 44,131 66.0% (99) (4) (103) (0.1%)

2006 62,490 62,490 62,422 N/A 5 62,427 89.4% 62,857 N/A 81 62,856 90.1% (353) (76) (429) (0.7%)

2007 67,865 67,865 67,822 N/A (21) 67,801 86.5% 68,043 N/A 53 68,044 86.8% (169) (74) (243) (0.3%)

2008 80,746 80,746 80,433 N/A 108 80,541 85.9% 81,008 N/A 478 81,008 86.4% (97) (370) (467) (0.5%)

2009 98,894 98,894 98,229 N/A 232 98,461 103.0% 98,003 N/A 496 98,003 102.5% 722 (264) 458 0.5%

2010 121,662 133,537 133,542 133,537 133,789 N/A (830) 132,959 114.4% 127,981 132,417 132,420 N/A - 132,962 114.4% 827 (830) (3) -

2011 116,828 96,271 96,603 97,274 94,738 N/A 899 95,637 81.2% 122,754 96,617 97,429 N/A 3,341 97,428 82.7% 651 (2,442) (1,791) (1.5%)

2012 127,628 109,048 110,851 115,060 100,860 N/A 8,359 109,219 86.0% 134,170 111,578 114,408 N/A 13,652 114,409 90.1% 103 (5,293) (5,190) (4.1%)

2013 134,991 130,961 132,179 132,855 103,161 N/A 26,574 129,735 99.4% 142,191 134,702 137,205 N/A 37,814 137,279 105.1% 3,696 (11,240) (7,544) (5.7%)

2014 135,333 123,917 129,100 132,638 80,047 N/A 49,772 129,819 102.6% 142,515 120,636 131,615 N/A 62,646 138,212 109.2% 4,481 (12,874) (8,393) (6.6%)

2015 133,357 109,407 130,675 63,989 46,741 N/A 55,435 102,176 102.9% 69,616 61,278 68,482 N/A 41,661 71,732 107.4% 16,671 13,774 30,445 (4.5%)

Total 769,799 1,550,588 732,951 1,522,799 1,405,639 140,576 1,546,215 739,228 1,505,700 681,559 160,283 1,540,493 25,431 (19,710) 5,721

2014 & Prior 636,442 1,441,181 602,275 1,458,810 1,358,898 85,141 1,444,038 669,611 1,444,422 613,077 118,622 1,468,761 8,760 (33,484) (24,724)




Exhibit B.2.4.3

IBNR Basis of Selection

page 1 of 2RSP Valuationas at Sep 30, 2015

RSP-ONIndem. and Allowed Clms Exp.Selection Basis for IBNR Amts

Accident Third Party Liability Third Party Liability Third Party Liability Accident BenefitsHalf Year Bodily Injury Property Damage Direct Comp Property Damage AccBen (indivis)

2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2

2015 / 2 - - - - - - - - 2015 / 1 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2014 / 2 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method BF Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2014 / 1 ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method2013 / 2 BF Method BF Method BF Method BF Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) BF Method BF Method2013 / 1 BF Method BF Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) BF Method BF Method2012 / 2 BF Method BF Method BF Method BF Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) BF Method BF Method2012 / 1 BF Method BF Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method BF Method BF Method2011 / 2 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method BF Method BF Method2011 / 1 BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2010 / 2 Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2010 / 1 Link Ratio Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2009 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2009 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2008 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2008 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2007 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2007 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2006 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2006 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2005 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2005 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2004 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2004 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2003 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2003 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2002 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2002 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2001 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2001 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2000 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method2000 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1999 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1999 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1998 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1998 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1997 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1997 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1996 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1996 / 1 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method1995 / 2 Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method

*Current accident half-year IBNR derived from the CAHY Selections exhibit


Exhibit B.2.4.3




Accident Half Year

2015 / 22015 / 12014 / 22014 / 12013 / 22013 / 12012 / 22012 / 12011 / 22011 / 12010 / 22010 / 12009 / 22009 / 12008 / 22008 / 12007 / 22007 / 12006 / 22006 / 12005 / 22005 / 12004 / 22004 / 12003 / 22003 / 12002 / 22002 / 12001 / 22001 / 12000 / 22000 / 11999 / 21999 / 11998 / 21998 / 11997 / 21997 / 11996 / 21996 / 11995 / 2

Accident Benefits Other Coverages Other Coverages Other CoveragesUninsured Automobile Underinsured Motorist Collision (w All Perils) Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2

- - - - - - - - ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method BF Method BF MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodELR & LR Wtd Method ELR & LR Wtd Method BF Method BF Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodIncurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Incurred (Zero IBNR) Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio MethodLink Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method Link Ratio Method



Exhibit B.2.4.4a-1





Coverage: Bodily Injury

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 43,733 20,192 0 20,192 20,192 20,192 20,192 20,192

1994 / 1 38,528 7,803 (0) 7,803 7,803 - 100.0% 7,803 7,803 7,803

1994 / 2 45,062 13,472 0 13,472 13,472 - 100.0% 13,472 13,472 13,472

1995 / 1 45,745 10,614 0 10,614 10,614 - 100.0% 10,614 10,614 10,614

1995 / 2 40,352 9,029 (0) 9,029 9,029 - 100.0% 9,029 9,029 9,029

1996 / 1 34,121 7,943 168 8,111 8,111 - 100.0% 8,111 8,111 8,106

1996 / 2 30,487 13,116 (0) 13,116 13,116 - 100.0% 13,116 13,116 13,116

1997 / 1 27,955 11,206 (0) 11,206 11,206 - 100.0% 11,206 11,206 11,206

1997 / 2 25,221 10,274 (0) 10,274 10,274 - 100.0% 10,274 10,274 10,274

1998 / 1 21,209 9,952 (0) 9,952 9,952 - 100.0% 9,952 9,952 9,952

1998 / 2 16,802 9,396 0 9,396 9,396 - 100.0% 9,396 9,396 9,396

1999 / 1 13,390 9,723 (0) 9,723 9,723 - 100.0% 9,723 9,723 9,723

1999 / 2 13,245 11,022 0 11,022 11,022 - 100.0% 11,022 11,022 11,022

2000 / 1 13,460 11,977 (0) 11,977 11,977 - 100.0% 11,977 11,977 11,977

2000 / 2 14,210 7,995 (0) 7,995 7,995 - 100.0% 7,995 7,995 7,995

2001 / 1 14,381 10,275 (0) 10,275 10,275 - 100.0% 10,275 10,275 10,275

2001 / 2 17,257 12,765 (0) 12,765 12,765 - 100.0% 12,765 12,765 12,765

2002 / 1 20,759 16,584 (0) 16,584 16,584 - 100.0% 16,584 16,584 16,584

2002 / 2 23,877 16,490 (0) 16,490 16,490 - 100.0% 16,490 16,490 16,490

2003 / 1 26,149 13,081 9 13,089 13,090 - 100.0% 13,090 13,089 13,090

2003 / 2 29,564 17,842 68 17,909 17,916 - 100.0% 17,916 17,909 17,914

2004 / 1 32,323 15,070 (0) 15,070 15,079 - 100.0% 15,079 15,070 15,079

2004 / 2 34,174 19,838 (0) 19,838 19,852 - 100.0% 19,852 19,838 19,852

2005 / 1 33,906 12,941 0 12,941 12,950 - 100.0% 12,950 12,941 12,950

2005 / 2 32,910 14,522 73 14,596 14,607 - 100.0% 14,607 14,596 14,605

2006 / 1 32,707 17,816 52 17,867 17,889 - 100.0% 17,889 17,867 17,886

2006 / 2 37,104 24,228 1,968 26,196 26,243 - 100.0% 26,243 26,196 26,182

2007 / 1 38,546 19,669 528 20,197 20,215 - 100.0% 20,215 20,197 20,199

2007 / 2 39,980 23,762 1,575 25,337 25,362 - 100.0% 25,362 25,337 25,314

2008 / 1 46,539 23,968 2,720 26,688 26,766 - 100.0% 26,766 26,688 26,681

2008 / 2 47,212 22,125 3,785 25,910 26,146 - 100.0% 26,146 25,910 26,025

2009 / 1 41,137 23,518 6,947 30,465 30,842 - 100.0% 30,842 30,465 30,622

2009 / 2 32,470 32,313 6,825 39,137 45,782 39,426 0.7% 99.3% 39,472 - 100.0% 39,426 39,137 141.0% 121.4% 121.6% 121.4% 120.5% 39,212 120.8%

2010 / 1 32,660 36,240 13,121 49,361 40,825 49,385 - 100.0% 49,381 - 100.0% 49,385 49,361 125.0% 151.2% 151.2% 151.2% 151.1% 48,991 150.0%

2010 / 2 36,610 33,087 15,324 48,411 46,494 48,135 (0.6%) 100.6% 48,144 - 100.0% 48,135 48,411 127.0% 131.5% 131.5% 131.5% 132.2% 47,951 131.0%

2011 / 1 35,368 16,347 11,033 27,381 39,259 27,553 0.6% 99.4% 27,626 - 100.0% 27,553 27,381 111.0% 77.9% 78.1% 77.9% 77.4% 27,287 77.2%

2011 / 2 37,518 17,175 19,287 36,462 45,022 37,824 3.6% 96.4% 38,083 12.5% 87.5% 38,723 36,462 120.0% 100.8% 101.5% 103.2% 97.2% 37,455 99.8%

2012 / 1 39,893 12,869 21,451 34,320 43,084 37,123 7.6% 92.4% 37,574 25.0% 75.0% 38,614 34,320 108.0% 93.1% 94.2% 96.8% 86.0% 36,832 92.3%

2012 / 2 40,894 11,872 22,950 34,821 50,300 40,204 13.4% 86.6% 41,556 37.5% 62.5% 43,990 34,821 123.0% 98.3% 101.6% 107.6% 85.2% 40,665 99.4%

2013 / 1 41,378 7,597 24,924 32,520 46,343 41,887 22.4% 77.6% 42,883 50.0% 50.0% 44,115 32,520 112.0% 101.2% 103.6% 106.6% 78.6% 41,825 101.1%

2013 / 2 42,312 5,513 29,187 34,700 53,736 53,095 34.6% 65.4% 53,317 62.5% 37.5% 53,496 34,700 127.0% 125.5% 126.0% 126.4% 82.0% 51,883 122.6%

2014 / 1 40,058 1,208 18,388 19,595 46,066 35,400 44.6% 55.4% 40,162 75.0% 25.0% 43,400 19,595 115.0% 88.4% 100.3% 108.3% 48.9% 42,134 105.2%

2014 / 2 42,529 534 26,171 26,704 55,288 54,529 51.0% 49.0% 54,917 87.5% 12.5% 55,193 26,704 130.0% 128.2% 129.1% 129.8% 62.8% 53,554 125.9%

2015 / 1 45,038 29 15,260 15,289 46,840 40,633 62.4% 37.6% 44,504 100.0% - 46,840 15,289 104.0% 90.2% 98.8% 104.0% 33.9% 46,839 104.0%

2015 / 2 22,300 3 4,578 4,581 52,333 31,163 85.3% 14.7% 49,221 - - - 4,581 120.0% 71.5% 112.9% - 26,760 120.0%

Total 1,461,074 642,995 246,388 889,382 611,373 1,023,310 566,839 1,015,823 889,382 1,027,777


**For 'off-half' valuation quarters (Mar and Sep), the current accident half-year (CAHY) by method Ultimate Loss estimates ([5] to [22]) are based on projected full AHY Earned Premium estimates


Exhibit B.2.4.4a‐2



Comparison of Estimated IBNR by Methodas at September 30, 2015

Coverage: Bodily InjuryRSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearELR Method

IBNR*Link Ratio

Method IBNRBF Method IBNR*

ELR & LR Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred (Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined 1 IBNR

Tort Threshold Adj. IBNR

Selected IBNR MethodSelected IBNR

Selected Ultimate

Selected Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method IBNR*

Link Ratio Method IBNR

BF Method IBNR*

Selected IBNR MethodSelected IBNR

Selected Ultimate

Selected Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to Date

Selected IBNR

Selected Ultimate

Selected Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]‐[16]) =([10]‐[17]) =([11]‐[18])

Prior to 1994 ‐ ‐ ‐ (0) (0) 20,192 ‐ ‐ 20,192 ‐ ‐ ‐

1994 / 1 ‐ ‐ ‐ 0 Link Ratio Method 0 7,803 ‐ Link Ratio Method ‐ 7,803 ‐ ‐ ‐

1994 / 2 ‐ ‐ ‐ (0) Link Ratio Method (0) 13,472 ‐ Link Ratio Method ‐ 13,472 ‐ ‐ ‐



1996 / 1 ‐ ‐ ‐ (5) Link Ratio Method (5) 8,106 ‐ Link Ratio Method ‐ 8,111 ‐ (5) (5)












2002 / 1 0 0 ‐ 0 Link Ratio Method 0 16,584 ‐ Link Ratio Method ‐ 16,584 ‐ ‐ ‐


2003 / 1 1 1 ‐ (0) Link Ratio Method 1 13,090 3 Link Ratio Method 3 13,092 ‐ (2) (2)

2003 / 2 7 7 ‐ (2) Link Ratio Method 5 17,914 11 Link Ratio Method 11 18,922 (1,002) (6) (1,008)

2004 / 1 9 9 ‐ (0) Link Ratio Method 9 15,079 9 Link Ratio Method 9 15,079 ‐ ‐ ‐

2004 / 2 14 14 ‐ (0) Link Ratio Method 14 19,852 16 Link Ratio Method 16 19,854 ‐ (2) (2)

2005 / 1 9 9 ‐ (0) Link Ratio Method 9 12,950 9 Link Ratio Method 9 12,950 ‐ ‐ ‐

2005 / 2 12 12 ‐ (3) Link Ratio Method 9 14,605 13 Link Ratio Method 13 14,706 (97) (4) (101)


2006 / 2 47 47 ‐ (60) Link Ratio Method (13) 26,182 52 Link Ratio Method 52 26,263 (15) (65) (81)

2007 / 1 18 18 ‐ (16) Link Ratio Method 2 20,199 (4) Link Ratio Method (4) 20,373 (180) 6 (175)

2007 / 2 25 25 ‐ (48) Link Ratio Method (23) 25,314 57 Link Ratio Method 57 25,380 14 (80) (66)

2008 / 1 77 77 ‐ (84) Link Ratio Method (7) 26,681 100 Link Ratio Method 100 26,833 (44) (107) (151)


2009 / 1 377 377 ‐ (220) Link Ratio Method 157 30,622 310 Link Ratio Method 310 30,234 541 (153) 388

2009 / 2 6,645 288 335 288 ‐ (213) Link Ratio Method 75 39,212 120.8% 10,070 186 232 Link Ratio Method 186 39,146 120.6% 177 (111) 66 0.2%

2010 / 1 (8,536) 24 19 24 ‐ (394) Link Ratio Method (370) 48,991 150.0% (4,768) (170) (154) Incurred (Zero IBNR) ‐ 48,533 148.6% 828 (370) 458 1.4%

2010 / 2 (1,916) (276) (266) (276) ‐ (460) Incurred (Zero IBNR) (460) 47,951 131.0% 1,381 (374) (388) Incurred (Zero IBNR) ‐ 48,408 132.2% 3 (460) (457) (1.2%)

2011 / 1 11,878 172 245 172 ‐ (338) BF Method (93) 27,287 77.2% 14,955 565 858 BF Method 858 27,991 79.1% 248 (951) (704) (1.9%)

2011 / 2 8,559 1,361 1,620 2,261 ‐ (627) BF Method 993 37,455 99.8% 11,986 1,965 2,483 BF Method 2,483 38,520 102.7% 425 (1,490) (1,065) (2.9%)

2012 / 1 8,765 2,804 3,254 4,294 ‐ (741) BF Method 2,513 36,832 92.3% 11,573 3,790 4,564 BF Method 4,564 38,867 97.4% 16 (2,051) (2,035) (5.1%)

2012 / 2 15,478 5,383 6,734 9,169 ‐ (891) BF Method 5,843 40,665 99.4% 19,246 7,028 9,084 BF Method 9,084 43,818 107.2% 87 (3,241) (3,153) (7.8%)

2013 / 1 13,823 9,366 10,363 11,595 ‐ (1,059) BF Method 9,304 41,825 101.1% 19,212 11,782 13,855 BF Method 13,855 44,296 107.1% 2,079 (4,551) (2,472) (6.0%)

2013 / 2 19,037 18,395 18,617 18,796 ‐ (1,434) BF Method 17,183 51,883 122.6% 24,428 23,397 23,824 BF Method 23,824 56,942 134.6% 1,581 (6,641) (5,060) (12.0%)

2014 / 1 26,471 15,805 20,567 23,804 ‐ (1,266) ELR & LR Wtd Method 22,538 42,134 105.2% 30,711 17,073 23,607 ELR & LR Wtd Method 27,302 45,866 114.5% 1,031 (4,764) (3,733) (9.3%)

2014 / 2 28,584 27,825 28,212 28,489 ‐ (1,640) ELR & LR Wtd Method 26,849 53,554 125.9% 35,717 27,666 32,026 ELR & LR Wtd Method 34,710 58,134 136.6% 3,280 (7,861) (4,581) (10.7%)

2015 / 1 31,550 25,344 29,215 31,550 ‐ ‐ ELR & LR Wtd Method 31,550 46,839 104.0% 39,907 29,922 36,972 39,907 52,366 116.0% 2,830 (8,357) (5,527) (12.0%)

2015 / 2 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 22,179 26,760 120.0% ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 4,581 22,179 26,760 120.0%

Total 160,338 107,346 118,916 131,021 ‐ (9,625) 138,395 1,027,777 214,418 123,813 146,963 157,756 1,031,146 15,993 (19,360) (3,370)

2015 / 1 & Prior 160,338 107,346 118,916 131,021 ‐ (9,625) 116,216 1,001,017 214,418 123,813 146,963 157,756 1,031,146 11,412 (41,539) (30,130) *Earned Premium prior to data modernization (2009 / 2) was not allocated on a coverage level

**Current accident half‐year IBNR and Ultimate Loss estimates derived from the CAHY Selections exhibit

File: 01 Ultimate Selections RSP‐ON 2015 Q3 v03.xlsm FA Actuarial Printed: 10/28/2015, 9:56 AM

Exhibit B.2.4.4b-1





Coverage: Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 14,107 - 14,107 14,107 14,107 14,107 14,107

1994 / 1 - 13,519 (0) 13,519 13,519 - 100.0% 13,519 13,519 13,519

1994 / 2 - 8,774 0 8,774 8,774 - 100.0% 8,774 8,774 8,774

1995 / 1 - 2,240 0 2,240 2,240 - 100.0% 2,240 2,240 2,240

1995 / 2 - 728 (0) 728 728 - 100.0% 728 728 728

1996 / 1 - 608 (0) 608 608 - 100.0% 608 608 608

1996 / 2 - 511 0 511 511 - 100.0% 511 511 511

1997 / 1 - 411 (0) 411 411 - 100.0% 411 411 411

1997 / 2 - 403 0 403 403 - 100.0% 403 403 403

1998 / 1 - 447 (0) 447 447 - 100.0% 447 447 447

1998 / 2 - 253 - 253 253 - 100.0% 253 253 253

1999 / 1 - 263 (0) 263 263 - 100.0% 263 263 263

1999 / 2 - 286 - 286 286 - 100.0% 286 286 286

2000 / 1 - 289 0 289 289 - 100.0% 289 289 289

2000 / 2 - 412 - 412 412 - 100.0% 412 412 412

2001 / 1 - 314 (0) 314 314 - 100.0% 314 314 314

2001 / 2 - 321 (0) 321 321 - 100.0% 321 321 321

2002 / 1 - 433 (0) 433 433 - 100.0% 433 433 433

2002 / 2 0 430 0 430 430 - 100.0% 430 430 430

2003 / 1 0 351 (0) 351 351 - 100.0% 351 351 351

2003 / 2 - 431 (0) 431 431 - 100.0% 431 431 431

2004 / 1 - 371 (0) 371 371 - 100.0% 371 371 371

2004 / 2 (0) 342 0 342 342 - 100.0% 342 342 342

2005 / 1 (0) 377 (0) 377 377 - 100.0% 377 377 377

2005 / 2 (0) 524 - 524 524 - 100.0% 524 524 524

2006 / 1 (0) 398 (0) 398 398 - 100.0% 398 398 398

2006 / 2 (1) 705 0 705 705 - 100.0% 705 705 705

2007 / 1 (2) 677 0 677 677 - 100.0% 677 677 677

2007 / 2 (3) 767 0 767 767 - 100.0% 767 767 767

2008 / 1 (3) 641 0 641 641 - 100.0% 641 641 641

2008 / 2 0 811 0 811 811 - 100.0% 811 811 811

2009 / 1 377 687 6 693 693 - 100.0% 693 693 693

2009 / 2 1,197 792 0 792 647 792 - 100.0% 792 - 100.0% 792 792 54.0% 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 792 66.1%

2010 / 1 1,630 1,033 0 1,033 897 1,033 - 100.0% 1,033 - 100.0% 1,033 1,033 55.0% 63.3% 63.3% 63.3% 63.3% 1,033 63.3%

2010 / 2 1,804 1,018 5 1,023 992 1,023 - 100.0% 1,023 - 100.0% 1,023 1,023 55.0% 56.7% 56.7% 56.7% 56.7% 1,023 56.7%

2011 / 1 1,600 777 - 777 848 777 - 100.0% 777 - 100.0% 777 777 53.0% 48.6% 48.6% 48.6% 48.6% 777 48.6%

2011 / 2 1,580 850 1 851 822 851 - 100.0% 851 12.5% 87.5% 847 851 52.0% 53.9% 53.9% 53.6% 53.9% 851 53.9%

2012 / 1 1,676 893 1 894 872 895 0.1% 99.9% 895 25.0% 75.0% 889 894 52.0% 53.4% 53.4% 53.0% 53.3% 895 53.4%

2012 / 2 1,785 827 0 827 928 829 0.2% 99.8% 829 37.5% 62.5% 866 827 52.0% 46.5% 46.5% 48.5% 46.4% 829 46.5%

2013 / 1 1,942 856 45 901 1,010 904 0.4% 99.6% 905 50.0% 50.0% 957 901 52.0% 46.6% 46.6% 49.3% 46.4% 957 49.3%

2013 / 2 2,030 1,051 15 1,067 1,076 1,098 2.9% 97.1% 1,098 62.5% 37.5% 1,084 1,067 53.0% 54.1% 54.1% 53.4% 52.6% 1,098 54.1%

2014 / 1 1,851 867 59 926 981 1,013 8.6% 91.4% 1,010 75.0% 25.0% 989 926 53.0% 54.7% 54.6% 53.4% 50.0% 989 53.4%

2014 / 2 1,933 595 97 692 1,044 865 20.0% 80.0% 901 87.5% 12.5% 1,021 692 54.0% 44.8% 46.6% 52.8% 35.8% 1,021 52.8%

2015 / 1 2,002 330 74 404 1,101 647 37.5% 62.5% 817 100.0% - 1,101 404 55.0% 32.3% 40.8% 55.0% 20.2% 1,101 55.0%

2015 / 2 995 24 270 294 1,089 1,109 73.5% 26.5% 1,094 - - - 294 56.0% 57.0% 56.3% - 557 56.0%

Total 22,394 61,746 573 62,319 12,306 63,674 12,025 63,218 62,319 63,761




Exhibit B.2.4.4b-2



Comparison of Estimated IBNR by Method


Coverage: Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined

2 IBNRSelected IBNR Method

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*Selected IBNR Method

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 14,107 - - 14,107 - - -

1994 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 13,519 - Link Ratio Method - 13,519 - - -



1995 / 2 - - - Link Ratio Method - 728 - Link Ratio Method - 728 - - -



















2005 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 377 - Link Ratio Method - 379 (2) - (2)





2007 / 2 - - - Link Ratio Method - 767 - Link Ratio Method - 767 (1) - (1)



2009 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 693 - Link Ratio Method - 689 3 - 3

2009 / 2 (145) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 792 66.1% (110) - - Link Ratio Method - 792 66.1% - - - -

2010 / 1 (136) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 1,033 63.3% (87) - - Link Ratio Method - 1,033 63.4% - - - (0.1%)

2010 / 2 (31) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 1,023 56.7% 2 - - Link Ratio Method - 1,027 56.9% (3) - (3) (0.2%)

2011 / 1 71 - - - - Link Ratio Method - 777 48.6% 118 - - Link Ratio Method - 778 48.6% - - - -

2011 / 2 (29) - - (4) - Link Ratio Method - 851 53.9% (3) - - Link Ratio Method - 872 55.2% (21) - (21) (1.3%)

2012 / 1 (22) 1 1 (5) - BF Method 1 895 53.4% 11 2 2 BF Method 2 896 53.4% - (1) (1) -

2012 / 2 101 2 2 39 - BF Method 2 829 46.5% 136 2 2 BF Method 2 829 46.5% - - - -

2013 / 1 109 3 4 56 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 56 957 49.3% 150 5 6 ELR & LR Wtd Method 77 976 50.3% 2 (21) (19) (1.0%)

2013 / 2 9 31 31 17 - BF Method 31 1,098 54.1% 77 57 58 BF Method 58 1,098 54.1% 27 (27) - -

2014 / 1 55 87 84 63 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 63 989 53.4% 163 119 124 ELR & LR Wtd Method 152 1,026 55.4% 53 (89) (36) (2.0%)

2014 / 2 352 173 209 329 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 329 1,021 52.8% 513 229 309 ELR & LR Wtd Method 478 1,067 55.2% 103 (149) (46) (2.4%)

2015 / 1 697 243 413 697 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 697 1,101 55.0% 861 268 547 861 1,163 58.0% 102 (164) (62) (3.0%)

2015 / 2 - - - - - - 263 557 56.0% - - - - - - - 294 263 557 56.0%

Total 1,029 540 743 1,193 - 1,442 63,761 1,832 680 1,046 1,630 63,392 557 (188) 369

2015 / 1 & Prior 1,029 540 743 1,193 - 1,179 63,204 1,832 680 1,046 1,630 63,392 263 (451) (188)


**Current accident half-year IBNR and Ultimate Loss estimates derived from the CAHY Selections exhibit


Exhibit B.2.4.4c-1





Coverage: Direct Comp Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - - - - - - - -

1994 / 1 - - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1994 / 2 - 5,445 (0) 5,445 5,445 - 100.0% 5,445 5,445 5,445

1995 / 1 - 11,021 (0) 11,021 11,021 - 100.0% 11,021 11,021 11,021

1995 / 2 - 12,949 (0) 12,949 12,949 - 100.0% 12,949 12,949 12,949

1996 / 1 - 10,613 0 10,614 10,614 - 100.0% 10,614 10,614 10,614

1996 / 2 - 9,741 (0) 9,741 9,741 - 100.0% 9,741 9,741 9,741

1997 / 1 - 9,114 (0) 9,114 9,114 - 100.0% 9,114 9,114 9,114

1997 / 2 - 8,075 (0) 8,075 8,075 - 100.0% 8,075 8,075 8,075

1998 / 1 - 6,529 (0) 6,529 6,529 - 100.0% 6,529 6,529 6,529

1998 / 2 - 5,681 0 5,682 5,682 - 100.0% 5,682 5,682 5,682

1999 / 1 - 4,569 (0) 4,569 4,569 - 100.0% 4,569 4,569 4,569

1999 / 2 - 5,427 1 5,428 5,428 - 100.0% 5,428 5,428 5,428

2000 / 1 - 5,095 0 5,095 5,095 - 100.0% 5,095 5,095 5,095

2000 / 2 - 5,854 0 5,854 5,854 - 100.0% 5,854 5,854 5,854

2001 / 1 - 5,514 0 5,514 5,514 - 100.0% 5,514 5,514 5,514

2001 / 2 - 7,122 0 7,122 7,122 - 100.0% 7,122 7,122 7,122

2002 / 1 - 7,701 (0) 7,701 7,701 - 100.0% 7,701 7,701 7,701

2002 / 2 0 8,765 3 8,768 8,768 - 100.0% 8,768 8,768 8,768

2003 / 1 0 8,340 0 8,340 8,340 - 100.0% 8,340 8,340 8,340

2003 / 2 - 7,777 (0) 7,777 7,777 - 100.0% 7,777 7,777 7,777

2004 / 1 - 7,513 (0) 7,513 7,513 - 100.0% 7,513 7,513 7,513

2004 / 2 (0) 8,390 (0) 8,390 8,390 - 100.0% 8,390 8,390 8,390

2005 / 1 (0) 7,284 0 7,284 7,284 - 100.0% 7,284 7,284 7,284

2005 / 2 (0) 8,288 0 8,288 8,288 - 100.0% 8,288 8,288 8,288

2006 / 1 (1) 7,131 (0) 7,131 7,131 - 100.0% 7,131 7,131 7,131

2006 / 2 (10) 10,125 0 10,125 10,125 - 100.0% 10,125 10,125 10,125

2007 / 1 (46) 10,149 6 10,155 10,155 - 100.0% 10,155 10,155 10,155

2007 / 2 (64) 10,689 (0) 10,689 10,689 - 100.0% 10,689 10,689 10,689

2008 / 1 (44) 12,533 0 12,534 12,534 - 100.0% 12,534 12,534 12,534

2008 / 2 51 13,845 4 13,848 13,848 - 100.0% 13,848 13,848 13,848

2009 / 1 5,086 12,900 11 12,911 12,911 - 100.0% 12,911 12,911 12,911

2009 / 2 15,364 14,199 32 14,232 11,677 14,232 - 100.0% 14,232 - 100.0% 14,232 14,232 76.0% 92.6% 92.6% 92.6% 92.6% 14,232 92.6%

2010 / 1 20,753 15,889 18 15,907 15,357 15,907 - 100.0% 15,907 - 100.0% 15,907 15,907 74.0% 76.7% 76.7% 76.7% 76.7% 15,907 76.7%

2010 / 2 22,795 18,022 32 18,054 17,096 18,054 - 100.0% 18,054 - 100.0% 18,054 18,054 75.0% 79.2% 79.2% 79.2% 79.2% 18,054 79.2%

2011 / 1 21,162 14,463 12 14,475 15,237 14,475 - 100.0% 14,475 - 100.0% 14,475 14,475 72.0% 68.4% 68.4% 68.4% 68.4% 14,475 68.4%

2011 / 2 20,581 14,786 5 14,791 15,641 14,791 - 100.0% 14,791 12.5% 87.5% 14,898 14,791 76.0% 71.9% 71.9% 72.4% 71.9% 14,791 71.9%

2012 / 1 21,098 13,882 19 13,902 15,613 13,902 - 100.0% 13,902 25.0% 75.0% 14,330 13,902 74.0% 65.9% 65.9% 67.9% 65.9% 13,902 65.9%

2012 / 2 21,579 16,051 45 16,096 16,831 16,096 - 100.0% 16,096 37.5% 62.5% 16,372 16,096 78.0% 74.6% 74.6% 75.9% 74.6% 16,096 74.6%

2013 / 1 21,339 15,466 104 15,569 16,004 15,572 - 100.0% 15,572 50.0% 50.0% 15,788 15,569 75.0% 73.0% 73.0% 74.0% 73.0% 15,569 73.0%

2013 / 2 21,567 18,372 32 18,404 16,822 18,404 - 100.0% 18,404 62.5% 37.5% 17,415 18,404 78.0% 85.3% 85.3% 80.8% 85.3% 18,404 85.3%

2014 / 1 20,098 15,709 68 15,777 15,275 15,765 (0.1%) 100.1% 15,765 75.0% 25.0% 15,397 15,777 76.0% 78.4% 78.4% 76.6% 78.5% 15,777 78.5%

2014 / 2 20,095 16,129 222 16,351 16,678 16,345 - 100.0% 16,345 87.5% 12.5% 16,637 16,351 83.0% 81.3% 81.3% 82.8% 81.4% 16,344 81.3%

2015 / 1 19,571 17,489 485 17,974 16,048 18,492 2.8% 97.2% 18,423 100.0% - 16,048 17,974 82.0% 94.5% 94.1% 82.0% 91.8% 18,423 94.1%

2015 / 2 9,372 5,239 2,960 8,199 15,946 17,363 52.8% 47.2% 16,615 - - - 8,199 87.0% 94.7% 90.7% - 8,496 90.7%

Total 260,346 449,879 4,059 453,938 204,225 463,604 208,582 443,758 453,938 454,677




Exhibit B.2.4.4c-2





Coverage: Direct Comp Property Damage

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - - - - - - - -

1994 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - - - Link Ratio Method - - - - -



























2007 / 2 - - - Link Ratio Method - 10,689 - Link Ratio Method - 10,691 (1) - (1)




2009 / 2 (2,555) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 14,232 92.6% (2,555) - - Link Ratio Method - 14,232 92.6% - - - -

2010 / 1 (550) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 15,907 76.7% (551) - - Link Ratio Method - 15,908 76.7% (1) - (1) -

2010 / 2 (958) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 18,054 79.2% (957) - - Link Ratio Method - 18,053 79.2% 1 - 1 -

2011 / 1 762 - - - - Link Ratio Method - 14,475 68.4% 763 - - Link Ratio Method - 14,473 68.4% 2 - 2 -

2011 / 2 850 - - 106 - Link Ratio Method - 14,791 71.9% 847 - - Link Ratio Method - 14,794 71.9% (3) - (3) -

2012 / 1 1,711 - - 428 - Link Ratio Method - 13,902 65.9% 1,711 - - Link Ratio Method - 13,901 65.9% - - - -

2012 / 2 736 - - 276 - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 16,096 74.6% 735 - - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 16,096 74.6% - - - -

2013 / 1 435 3 3 219 - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 15,569 73.0% 435 5 6 Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 15,569 73.0% - - - -

2013 / 2 (1,582) (0) (0) (989) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 18,404 85.3% (1,576) (9) (8) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 18,398 85.3% 6 - 6 -

2014 / 1 (503) (13) (12) (380) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 15,777 78.5% (514) (20) (19) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 15,790 78.6% (12) - (12) (0.1%)

2014 / 2 327 (7) (7) 285 - BF Method (7) 16,344 81.3% 359 4 4 BF Method 4 16,329 81.2% 26 (11) 15 0.1%

2015 / 1 (1,926) 518 449 (1,926) - BF Method 449 18,423 94.1% (1,222) 1,017 893 893 18,202 92.8% 665 (444) 221 1.3%

2015 / 2 - - - - - - 297 8,496 90.7% - - - - - - - 8,199 297 8,496 90.7%

Total (3,253) 502 434 (1,980) - 739 454,677 (2,525) 997 875 897 445,955 8,881 (158) 8,723

2015 / 1 & Prior (3,253) 502 434 (1,980) - 442 446,181 (2,525) 997 875 897 445,955 682 (455) 227




Exhibit B.3.1



Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Accident Benefits

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium






Claims Expense


Claims Expense


[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]


2010 & prior 987,259 1,377,893 139.6% 76,020 7.7% 1,453,913 147.3% 55,514 5.6% 1,509,427 152.9% 131,534 13.3%

2011 115,834 77,569 67.0% 27,559 23.8% 105,128 90.8% 9,615 8.3% 114,743 99.1% 37,174 32.1%

2012 129,014 63,859 49.5% 45,392 35.2% 109,251 84.7% 14,005 10.9% 123,256 95.5% 59,397 46.0%

2013 123,917 51,127 41.3% 44,816 36.2% 95,943 77.4% 26,400 21.3% 122,343 98.7% 71,216 57.5%

2014 102,474 26,990 26.3% 55,177 53.8% 82,167 80.2% 44,058 43.0% 126,225 123.2% 99,235 96.8%

2015 70,255 5,554 7.9% 30,289 43.1% 35,843 51.0% 54,646 77.8% 90,489 128.8% 84,935 120.9%

TOTAL 1,528,753 1,602,992 104.9% 279,253 18.3% 1,882,245 123.1% 204,238 13.4% 2,086,483 136.5% 483,491 31.6%

2014 & prior 1,458,498 1,597,438 109.5% 248,964 17.1% 1,846,402 126.6% 149,592 10.3% 1,995,994 136.9% 398,556 27.3%


Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)










[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]


2010 & prior 987,259 5,465 0.6% (2,086) (0.2%) 3,379 0.3% (1,526) (0.2%) 1,853 0.2% (3,612) (0.4%)

2011 115,834 3,439 3.0% (2,500) (2.2%) 939 0.8% (787) (0.7%) 152 0.1% (3,287) (2.8%)

2012 129,014 3,623 2.8% (1,345) (1.0%) 2,278 1.8% (1,839) (1.4%) 439 0.3% (3,184) (2.5%)

2013 123,917 4,250 3.4% 520 0.4% 4,770 3.8% (5,569) (4.5%) (799) (0.6%) (5,049) (4.1%)

2014 102,474 5,379 5.2% (312) (0.3%) 5,067 4.9% (3,510) (3.4%) 1,557 1.5% (3,822) (3.7%)

TOTAL 1,458,498 22,156 1.5% (5,723) (0.4%) 16,433 1.1% (13,231) (0.9%) 3,202 0.2% (18,954) (1.3%)



Unpaid








[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]


2010 & prior 57,040 135,146 5,465 4.0% 3,379 5.9% 1,853 1.4%

2011 10,402 40,461 3,439 8.5% 939 9.0% 152 0.4%

2012 15,844 62,581 3,623 5.8% 2,278 14.4% 439 0.7%

2013 31,969 76,265 4,250 5.6% 4,770 14.9% (799) (1.0%)

2014 47,568 103,057 5,379 5.2% 5,067 10.7% 1,557 1.5%

TOTAL 162,823 417,510 22,156 5.3% 16,433 10.1% 3,202 0.8%



Exhibit B.3.2



Amounts in: $1,000s


RSP: Ontario






[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]


AY1995 & Prior 172,588 239,004 8,606 247,610 - 247,610 - - - - - - 238 - 898

1996 78,201 72,708 4,362 77,070 - 77,070 98.6% 95.3% 94.5% 95.4% 95.4% 3.3% 2,546 3.2% 2,502

1997 56,830 38,494 155 38,649 20 38,669 68.0% 68.1% 68.1% 68.2% 68.0% (0.1%) (5) - -

1998 34,874 28,202 686 28,888 83 28,971 83.1% 83.1% 83.3% 83.6% 83.6% - (25) (0.5%) (174)

1999 22,095 29,760 954 30,714 202 30,916 139.9% 140.0% 140.3% 140.3% 140.8% (0.1%) (21) (0.9%) (199)

2000 21,883 31,852 16 31,868 293 32,161 147.0% 147.1% 147.2% 147.3% 148.2% (0.1%) (27) (1.2%) (263)

2001 24,684 41,358 934 42,292 556 42,848 173.6% 173.6% 173.8% 174.1% 173.8% - (5) (0.2%) (49)

2002 35,582 52,386 1,276 53,662 903 54,565 153.4% 153.4% 153.7% 153.6% 154.5% - (26) (1.1%) (391)

2003 46,841 50,352 912 51,264 1,096 52,360 111.8% 111.9% 112.3% 112.5% 113.2% (0.1%) (74) (1.4%) (656)

2004 57,005 50,059 1,435 51,494 1,481 52,975 92.9% 92.9% 92.9% 92.4% 93.9% - 13 (1.0%) (570)

2005 53,507 45,043 1,154 46,197 1,840 48,037 89.8% 90.0% 89.9% 90.2% 89.8% (0.2%) (112) - -

2006 54,961 68,935 4,621 73,556 3,231 76,787 139.7% 138.7% 139.2% 139.4% 138.7% 1.0% 547 1.0% 550

2007 59,159 73,492 3,777 77,269 3,699 80,968 136.9% 137.1% 137.1% 136.4% 135.0% (0.2%) (139) 1.9% 1,124

2008 72,990 129,206 8,440 137,646 8,234 145,880 199.9% 200.6% 200.1% 201.5% 199.8% (0.7%) (546) 0.1% 73

2009 80,895 198,197 10,963 209,160 14,642 223,802 276.7% 277.0% 278.2% 278.3% 276.4% (0.3%) (279) 0.3% 243

2010 115,164 228,845 27,729 256,574 19,234 275,808 239.5% 239.7% 238.8% 240.4% 233.7% (0.2%) (232) 5.8% 6,680

2011 115,834 77,569 27,559 105,128 9,615 114,743 99.1% 98.9% 98.4% 103.9% 107.7% 0.2% 152 (8.6%) (9,962)

2012 129,014 63,859 45,392 109,251 14,005 123,256 95.5% 95.2% 97.1% 104.2% 108.1% 0.3% 439 (12.6%) (16,256)

2013 123,917 51,127 44,816 95,943 26,400 122,343 98.7% 99.4% 106.7% 113.5% 118.2% (0.7%) (799) (19.5%) (24,164)

2014 102,474 26,990 55,177 82,167 44,058 126,225 123.2% 121.6% 124.9% 125.7% 126.9% 1.6% 1,557 (3.7%) (3,792)

2015 70,255 5,554 30,289 35,843 54,646 90,489 128.8% 127.4% 121.3% - - - -

TOTAL 1,528,753 1,602,992 279,253 1,882,245 204,238 2,086,483 136.5% 136.3% 137.3% 139.5% 140.1% 3,202 (44,406)

2014 & prior 1,458,498 1,597,438 248,964 1,846,402 149,592 1,995,994 136.9% 136.3% 137.3% 139.2% 139.9% 3,202 (44,406)




Exhibit B.3.3

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 99.0% 102.0% (3.0%)

2005 / 1 97.0% 99.0% (2.0%)

2005 / 2 122.0% 125.0% (3.0%)

2006 / 1 116.0% 120.0% (4.0%)

2006 / 2 145.0% 149.0% (4.0%)

2007 / 1 138.0% 142.0% (4.0%)

2007 / 2 171.0% 175.0% (4.0%)

2008 / 1 161.0% 166.0% (5.0%)

2008 / 2 194.0% 199.0% (5.0%)

2009 / 1 175.0% 179.0% (4.0%)

2009 / 2 199.0% 205.0% (6.0%)

2010 / 1 169.0% 173.0% (4.0%)

2010 / 2 100.0% 103.0% (3.0%)

2011 / 1 89.0% 91.0% (2.0%)

2011 / 2 102.0% 106.0% (4.0%)

2012 / 1 90.0% 92.0% (2.0%)


2013 / 2 115.0% 118.0% (3.0%)

2014 / 1 107.0% 110.0% (3.0%)

2014 / 2 132.0% 136.0% (4.0%)

2015 / 1 122.0% 127.0% (5.0%)

2015 / 2 143.0% 149.0% (6.0%)

2016 / 1 128.0% 133.0% (5.0%)

2016 / 2 144.0% 157.0% (13.0%)

2017 / 1 122.0% 140.0% (18.0%)

2017 / 2 143.0% 164.0% (21.0%)



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 28,750 28,984 32 29,905 104.0% 1.0567 1.0000 1.0000 30,379 1.5446 0.9859 1.0000 45,534 149.9% -

2005 / 1 27,379 19,563 289 20,662 75.5% 1.0984 1.0000 1.0000 30,073 1.6567 0.9859 1.0000 33,751 112.2% -

2005 / 2 26,127 25,445 899 27,487 105.2% 1.1420 1.0000 1.0000 29,838 1.3559 0.9853 1.0000 36,722 123.1% -

2006 / 1 26,051 24,711 357 26,140 100.3% 1.1675 1.0000 1.0000 30,414 1.4492 0.9855 1.0000 37,334 122.8% -

2006 / 2 28,911 43,596 4,285 50,100 173.3% 1.1893 1.0000 1.0000 34,384 1.1871 0.9854 1.0000 58,611 170.5% -

2007 / 1 29,310 34,143 1,709 37,456 127.8% 1.2068 1.0000 1.0000 35,371 1.2741 0.9858 1.0000 47,054 133.0% -

2007 / 2 29,849 38,871 2,514 43,652 146.2% 1.2227 1.0000 1.0000 36,495 1.0374 0.9854 1.0000 44,629 122.3% -

2008 / 1 36,056 58,839 4,017 66,783 185.2% 1.2252 1.0000 1.0000 44,175 1.1000 0.9854 1.0000 72,401 163.9% -

2008 / 2 36,933 70,415 4,444 79,642 215.6% 1.2077 1.0000 1.0000 44,603 0.9050 0.9857 1.0000 71,059 159.3% -

2009 / 1 38,048 88,019 2,807 97,003 254.9% 1.1602 1.0000 1.0000 44,145 0.9649 0.9857 1.0000 92,278 209.0% -

2009 / 2 42,847 109,906 8,307 127,078 296.6% 1.0838 1.0000 1.0000 46,437 0.7858 0.9854 1.0000 98,421 211.9% 0.4%

2010 / 1 52,330 140,232 14,150 165,742 316.7% 0.9728 1.0000 1.0000 50,904 0.8324 0.9853 1.0000 135,953 267.1% -

2010 / 2 62,835 84,799 17,651 110,298 175.5% 0.8755 1.0000 1.0000 55,009 1.2713 0.9855 1.0000 138,174 251.2% 0.3%

2011 / 1 57,280 42,302 14,120 60,973 106.4% 0.8630 1.0000 1.0000 49,434 1.4144 0.9857 1.0000 85,001 171.9% 0.3%

2011 / 2 58,553 31,829 15,938 53,618 91.6% 0.8569 1.0000 1.0000 50,175 1.2112 0.9856 1.0000 63,998 127.5% -

2012 / 1 64,072 29,278 19,308 54,775 85.5% 0.8365 1.0000 1.0000 53,599 1.3483 0.9857 1.0000 72,794 135.8% 0.3%

2012 / 2 64,942 30,957 27,430 68,042 104.8% 0.8323 1.0000 1.0000 54,054 1.1537 0.9857 1.0000 77,367 143.1% 16.5%

2013 / 1 63,855 25,621 20,196 58,143 91.1% 0.8391 1.0000 1.0000 53,578 1.2862 0.9856 1.0000 73,708 137.6% 16.5%

2013 / 2 60,064 21,255 24,100 64,998 108.2% 0.8730 1.0000 1.0000 52,433 1.0992 0.9858 1.0000 70,431 134.3% 16.5%

2014 / 1 52,309 12,748 21,064 55,759 106.6% 0.9005 1.0000 1.0000 47,103 1.2262 0.9857 1.0000 67,396 143.1% 16.5%

2014 / 2 50,187 8,863 34,425 68,909 137.3% 0.9575 1.0000 1.0000 48,054 1.0487 0.9857 1.0000 71,232 148.2% 16.4%

2015 / 1 48,049 2,113 19,542 61,229 127.4% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 48,049 1.1693 0.9857 1.0000 70,573 146.9% 16.4%

Total 984,737 972,488 257,587 1,428,396 145.1% 0.9837 1.0000 1.0000 968,706 1.1112 0.9856 1.0000 1,564,421 161.5% 100.0%



-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Accident Benefits



(100.0%)

(50.0%)

-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2



Exhibit B.3.3f

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: AccBen (indivis)

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 97.0% 100.0% (3.0%)

2005 / 1 95.0% 97.0% (2.0%)

2005 / 2 120.0% 123.0% (3.0%)

2006 / 1 115.0% 118.0% (3.0%)

2006 / 2 143.0% 147.0% (4.0%)

2007 / 1 137.0% 141.0% (4.0%)

2007 / 2 170.0% 174.0% (4.0%)

2008 / 1 160.0% 165.0% (5.0%)

2008 / 2 193.0% 198.0% (5.0%)

2009 / 1 175.0% 179.0% (4.0%)

2009 / 2 199.0% 205.0% (6.0%)

2010 / 1 169.0% 173.0% (4.0%)

2010 / 2 98.0% 100.0% (2.0%)

2011 / 1 87.0% 89.0% (2.0%)

2011 / 2 100.0% 103.0% (3.0%)

2012 / 1 88.0% 90.0% (2.0%)


2013 / 2 113.0% 116.0% (3.0%)

2014 / 1 105.0% 108.0% (3.0%)

2014 / 2 130.0% 134.0% (4.0%)

2015 / 1 121.0% 126.0% (5.0%)

2015 / 2 141.0% 147.0% (6.0%)

2016 / 1 127.0% 132.0% (5.0%)

2016 / 2 142.0% 155.0% (13.0%)

2017 / 1 121.0% 139.0% (18.0%)

2017 / 2 141.0% 162.0% (21.0%)



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 27,771 27,299 17 28,205 101.6% 1.0499 1.0000 1.0000 29,157 1.5494 0.9850 1.0000 43,045 147.6% -

2005 / 1 26,436 18,274 289 19,374 73.3% 1.0918 1.0000 1.0000 28,863 1.6523 0.9850 1.0000 31,531 109.2% -

2005 / 2 25,221 24,978 863 26,984 107.0% 1.1355 1.0000 1.0000 28,638 1.3551 0.9850 1.0000 36,018 125.8% -

2006 / 1 25,137 23,894 357 25,324 100.7% 1.1613 1.0000 1.0000 29,192 1.4428 0.9850 1.0000 35,989 123.3% -

2006 / 2 27,878 42,209 4,221 48,672 174.6% 1.1839 1.0000 1.0000 33,005 1.1826 0.9850 1.0000 56,697 171.8% -

2007 / 1 28,235 32,173 1,663 35,477 125.6% 1.2026 1.0000 1.0000 33,955 1.2572 0.9850 1.0000 43,933 129.4% -

2007 / 2 28,719 37,738 2,337 42,372 147.5% 1.2198 1.0000 1.0000 35,031 1.0300 0.9850 1.0000 42,988 122.7% -

2008 / 1 34,662 57,183 3,673 64,845 187.1% 1.2232 1.0000 1.0000 42,399 1.0935 0.9850 1.0000 69,845 164.7% -

2008 / 2 35,492 67,626 3,156 75,745 213.4% 1.2062 1.0000 1.0000 42,810 0.8955 0.9850 1.0000 66,812 156.1% -

2009 / 1 36,577 84,295 2,083 92,797 253.7% 1.1584 1.0000 1.0000 42,371 0.9496 0.9850 1.0000 86,799 204.9% -

2009 / 2 41,231 107,673 6,781 123,500 299.5% 1.0810 1.0000 1.0000 44,571 0.7774 0.9850 1.0000 94,569 212.2% -

2010 / 1 50,575 138,164 12,787 162,523 321.4% 0.9694 1.0000 1.0000 49,027 0.8234 0.9850 1.0000 131,814 268.9% -

2010 / 2 60,856 82,888 15,688 106,696 175.3% 0.8717 1.0000 1.0000 53,048 1.2783 0.9850 1.0000 134,344 253.2% -

2011 / 1 55,482 41,116 12,288 58,195 104.9% 0.8593 1.0000 1.0000 47,676 1.4213 0.9850 1.0000 81,472 170.9% -

2011 / 2 56,801 31,126 14,727 51,651 90.9% 0.8528 1.0000 1.0000 48,440 1.2173 0.9850 1.0000 61,931 127.9% -

2012 / 1 62,243 28,597 17,303 52,089 83.7% 0.8321 1.0000 1.0000 51,792 1.3531 0.9850 1.0000 69,424 134.0% -

2012 / 2 63,075 30,482 25,234 65,036 103.1% 0.8279 1.0000 1.0000 52,220 1.1590 0.9850 1.0000 74,246 142.2% 16.7%

2013 / 1 61,986 25,336 18,792 55,721 89.9% 0.8348 1.0000 1.0000 51,746 1.2882 0.9850 1.0000 70,703 136.6% 16.7%

2013 / 2 58,233 21,054 22,119 61,475 105.6% 0.8693 1.0000 1.0000 50,622 1.1035 0.9850 1.0000 66,820 132.0% 16.7%

2014 / 1 50,610 12,581 20,198 53,176 105.1% 0.8974 1.0000 1.0000 45,417 1.2263 0.9850 1.0000 64,232 141.4% 16.7%

2014 / 2 48,466 8,728 33,931 65,733 135.6% 0.9560 1.0000 1.0000 46,333 1.0505 0.9850 1.0000 68,017 146.8% 16.7%

2015 / 1 46,328 1,982 19,221 58,372 126.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 46,328 1.1673 0.9850 1.0000 67,116 144.9% 16.7%

Total 952,014 945,394 237,728 1,373,962 144.3% 0.9797 1.0000 1.0000 932,641 1.1071 0.9850 1.0000 1,498,345 160.7% 100.0%



-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - AccBen (indivis)



(100.0%)

(50.0%)

-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2



Exhibit B.3.3g

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: UA

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 162.0% 171.0% (9.0%)

2005 / 1 141.0% 150.0% (9.0%)

2005 / 2 180.0% 190.0% (10.0%)

2006 / 1 154.0% 163.0% (9.0%)

2006 / 2 189.0% 200.0% (11.0%)

2007 / 1 159.0% 168.0% (9.0%)

2007 / 2 192.0% 203.0% (11.0%)

2008 / 1 184.0% 194.0% (10.0%)

2008 / 2 217.0% 229.0% (12.0%)

2009 / 1 176.0% 186.0% (10.0%)

2009 / 2 204.0% 215.0% (11.0%)

2010 / 1 158.0% 167.0% (9.0%)

2010 / 2 177.0% 187.0% (10.0%)

2011 / 1 146.0% 155.0% (9.0%)

2011 / 2 179.0% 189.0% (10.0%)

2012 / 1 150.0% 158.0% (8.0%)


2013 / 2 183.0% 194.0% (11.0%)

2014 / 1 154.0% 163.0% (9.0%)

2014 / 2 188.0% 198.0% (10.0%)

2015 / 1 157.0% 166.0% (9.0%)

2015 / 2 190.0% 201.0% (11.0%)

2016 / 1 159.0% 168.0% (9.0%)

2016 / 2 192.0% 203.0% (11.0%)

2017 / 1 161.0% 170.0% (9.0%)

2017 / 2 195.0% 206.0% (11.0%)



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 979 1,684 15 1,700 173.6% 1.2484 1.0000 1.0000 1,222 1.4643 1.0000 1.0000 2,489 203.7% -

2005 / 1 943 1,288 0 1,288 136.6% 1.2831 1.0000 1.0000 1,210 1.7231 1.0000 1.0000 2,220 183.5% -

2005 / 2 906 467 35 503 55.5% 1.3242 1.0000 1.0000 1,200 1.4010 1.0000 1.0000 704 58.7% -

2006 / 1 914 816 0 816 89.3% 1.3370 1.0000 1.0000 1,222 1.6478 1.0000 1.0000 1,345 110.1% -

2006 / 2 1,033 1,387 64 1,428 138.2% 1.3352 1.0000 1.0000 1,379 1.3404 1.0000 1.0000 1,914 138.8% -

2007 / 1 1,075 1,970 46 1,979 184.1% 1.3170 1.0000 1.0000 1,416 1.5769 1.0000 1.0000 3,121 220.4% -

2007 / 2 1,130 1,134 177 1,280 113.3% 1.2959 1.0000 1.0000 1,464 1.2824 1.0000 1.0000 1,641 112.1% -

2008 / 1 1,394 1,656 344 1,938 139.0% 1.2738 1.0000 1.0000 1,776 1.3188 1.0000 1.0000 2,556 143.9% -

2008 / 2 1,441 2,789 1,289 3,897 270.4% 1.2444 1.0000 1.0000 1,793 1.0899 1.0000 1.0000 4,247 236.9% -

2009 / 1 1,471 3,724 723 4,205 285.9% 1.2057 1.0000 1.0000 1,774 1.3028 1.0000 1.0000 5,479 308.9% -

2009 / 2 1,616 2,233 1,526 3,579 221.4% 1.1548 1.0000 1.0000 1,866 1.0764 1.0000 1.0000 3,852 206.4% 10.0%

2010 / 1 1,755 2,068 1,363 3,219 183.4% 1.0695 1.0000 1.0000 1,877 1.2860 1.0000 1.0000 4,139 220.5%

2010 / 2 1,979 1,911 1,963 3,602 182.0% 0.9908 1.0000 1.0000 1,961 1.0633 1.0000 1.0000 3,830 195.3% 10.0%

2011 / 1 1,798 1,186 1,832 2,777 154.5% 0.9778 1.0000 1.0000 1,758 1.2707 1.0000 1.0000 3,529 200.7% 10.0%

2011 / 2 1,752 703 1,212 1,967 112.3% 0.9903 1.0000 1.0000 1,735 1.0505 1.0000 1.0000 2,067 119.1%

2012 / 1 1,829 682 2,005 2,686 146.9% 0.9878 1.0000 1.0000 1,807 1.2547 1.0000 1.0000 3,370 186.5% 10.0%

2012 / 2 1,867 475 2,196 3,007 161.1% 0.9823 1.0000 1.0000 1,834 1.0380 1.0000 1.0000 3,121 170.2% 10.0%

2013 / 1 1,869 285 1,404 2,423 129.6% 0.9803 1.0000 1.0000 1,832 1.2402 1.0000 1.0000 3,005 164.0% 10.0%

2013 / 2 1,831 202 1,981 3,523 192.4% 0.9893 1.0000 1.0000 1,811 1.0250 1.0000 1.0000 3,611 199.4% 10.0%

2014 / 1 1,699 167 867 2,583 152.0% 0.9923 1.0000 1.0000 1,686 1.2250 1.0000 1.0000 3,164 187.7% 10.0%

2014 / 2 1,721 135 495 3,176 184.5% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1,721 1.0123 1.0000 1.0000 3,215 186.8% 10.0%

2015 / 1 1,721 131 321 2,857 166.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1,721 1.2101 1.0000 1.0000 3,457 200.9% 10.0%

Total 32,723 27,094 19,859 54,433 166.3% 1.1021 1.0000 1.0000 36,065 1.2139 1.0000 1.0000 66,076 183.2% 100.0%



(20.0%)

30.0%

80.0%

130.0%

180.0%

230.0%

280.0%

330.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Uninsured Automobile



(150.0%)

(100.0%)

(50.0%)

-

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2



Exhibit B.3.4.1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]

=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 25,327 39,043 - 39,043 39,043 39,043 39,043 39,043

1994 62,264 95,626 5,338 100,964 100,964 100,964 100,964 162.2% 162.2% 162.2% 100,964 162.2%

1995 84,997 104,335 3,268 107,603 107,603 107,603 107,603 126.6% 126.6% 126.6% 107,603 126.6%

1996 78,201 72,708 4,362 77,070 77,070 77,070 77,070 98.6% 98.6% 98.6% 77,070 98.6%

1997 56,830 38,494 156 38,649 38,670 38,670 38,649 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 38,669 68.0%

1998 34,874 28,202 686 28,888 28,971 28,971 28,888 83.1% 83.1% 82.8% 28,971 83.1%

1999 22,095 29,760 954 30,714 30,916 30,916 30,714 139.9% 139.9% 139.0% 30,916 139.9%

2000 21,883 31,852 15 31,868 32,161 32,161 31,868 147.0% 147.0% 145.6% 32,161 147.0%

2001 24,684 41,358 933 42,292 42,848 42,848 42,292 173.6% 173.6% 171.3% 42,848 173.6%

2002 35,582 52,386 1,276 53,662 54,566 54,566 53,662 153.4% 153.4% 150.8% 54,565 153.4%

2003 46,841 50,352 912 51,264 52,361 52,361 51,264 111.8% 111.8% 109.4% 52,360 111.8%

2004 57,005 50,059 1,434 51,494 52,966 52,966 51,494 92.9% 92.9% 90.3% 52,975 92.9%

2005 53,507 45,043 1,154 46,197 48,019 48,019 46,197 89.7% 89.7% 86.3% 48,037 89.8%

2006 54,961 68,935 4,622 73,556 76,775 76,775 73,556 139.7% 139.7% 133.8% 76,787 139.7%

2007 59,159 73,492 3,776 77,269 80,969 80,969 77,269 136.9% 136.9% 130.6% 80,968 136.9%

2008 72,990 129,206 8,440 137,646 145,881 145,881 137,646 199.9% 199.9% 188.6% 145,880 199.9%

2009 80,895 198,197 10,963 209,160 223,802 223,802 209,160 276.7% 276.7% 258.6% 223,802 276.7%

2010 115,164 228,845 27,729 256,574 151,385 275,808 7.3% 92.7% 266,779 275,808 256,574 131.5% 239.5% 231.7% 239.5% 222.8% 275,808 239.5%

2011 115,834 77,569 27,559 105,128 110,833 114,039 11.5% 88.5% 113,669 114,943 105,128 95.7% 98.5% 98.1% 99.2% 90.8% 114,743 99.1%

2012 129,014 63,859 45,392 109,251 125,214 122,626 4.9% 95.1% 122,753 123,332 109,251 97.1% 95.0% 95.1% 95.6% 84.7% 123,256 95.5%

2013 123,917 51,127 44,816 95,943 129,602 120,108 20.0% 80.0% 122,005 125,583 95,943 104.6% 96.9% 98.5% 101.3% 77.4% 122,343 98.7%

2014 102,474 26,990 55,177 82,167 121,969 124,899 33.2% 66.8% 123,926 121,841 82,167 119.0% 121.9% 120.9% 118.9% 80.2% 126,225 123.2%

2015 70,255 5,554 30,289 35,843 120,938 101,689 76.6% 23.4% 116,443 58,628 35,843 90,489 128.8%

Total 1,528,752 1,602,992 279,253 1,882,245 759,941 2,092,751 865,575 2,053,718 1,882,245 2,086,483




Exhibit B.3.4.2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 39,043 39,043 39,043 - 39,043 39,043 - 39,043 - - -

1994 100,964 100,964 100,964 N/A - 100,964 162.2% 100,715 N/A - 100,715 161.8% 248 - 248 0.4%

1995 107,603 107,603 107,603 N/A - 107,603 126.6% 107,614 N/A - 107,614 126.6% (11) - (11) -

1996 77,070 77,070 77,070 N/A - 77,070 98.6% 74,524 N/A - 74,524 95.3% 2,545 - 2,545 3.3%

1997 38,670 38,670 38,649 N/A 20 38,669 68.0% 38,675 N/A 22 38,674 68.1% (3) (2) (5) (0.1%)

1998 28,971 28,971 28,888 N/A 83 28,971 83.1% 28,996 N/A 108 28,996 83.1% - (25) (25) -

1999 30,916 30,916 30,714 N/A 202 30,916 139.9% 30,936 N/A 225 30,937 140.0% 2 (23) (21) (0.1%)

2000 32,161 32,161 31,868 N/A 293 32,161 147.0% 32,188 N/A 320 32,188 147.1% - (27) (27) (0.1%)

2001 42,848 42,848 42,292 N/A 556 42,848 173.6% 42,853 N/A 579 42,853 173.6% 18 (23) (5) -

2002 54,566 54,566 53,662 N/A 903 54,565 153.4% 54,591 N/A 960 54,591 153.4% 31 (57) (26) -

2003 52,361 52,361 51,264 N/A 1,096 52,360 111.8% 52,435 N/A 1,185 52,434 111.9% 15 (89) (74) (0.1%)

2004 52,966 52,966 51,494 N/A 1,481 52,975 92.9% 52,950 N/A 1,566 52,962 92.9% 98 (85) 13 -

2005 48,019 48,019 46,197 N/A 1,840 48,037 89.8% 48,126 N/A 1,954 48,149 90.0% 2 (114) (112) (0.2%)

2006 76,775 76,775 73,556 N/A 3,231 76,787 139.7% 76,229 N/A 3,291 76,240 138.7% 607 (60) 547 1.0%

2007 80,969 80,969 77,269 N/A 3,699 80,968 136.9% 81,107 N/A 3,870 81,107 137.1% 31 (171) (140) (0.2%)

2008 145,881 145,881 137,646 N/A 8,234 145,880 199.9% 146,426 N/A 8,710 146,426 200.6% (69) (476) (545) (0.7%)

2009 223,802 223,802 209,160 N/A 14,642 223,802 276.7% 224,081 N/A 15,042 224,081 277.0% 121 (400) (279) (0.3%)

2010 151,385 275,808 266,779 275,808 256,574 N/A 19,234 275,808 239.5% 154,981 276,039 267,220 N/A 19,208 276,040 239.7% (258) 26 (232) (0.2%)

2011 110,833 114,039 113,669 114,943 105,128 N/A 9,615 114,743 99.1% 113,983 113,644 113,551 N/A 10,402 114,591 98.9% 940 (787) 153 0.2%

2012 125,214 122,626 122,753 123,332 109,251 N/A 14,005 123,256 95.5% 128,685 121,667 122,335 N/A 15,844 122,817 95.2% 2,277 (1,839) 438 0.3%

2013 129,602 120,108 122,005 125,583 95,943 N/A 26,400 122,343 98.7% 132,960 119,513 122,682 N/A 31,969 123,142 99.4% 4,771 (5,569) (798) (0.7%)

2014 121,969 124,899 123,926 121,841 82,167 N/A 44,058 126,225 123.2% 125,778 123,572 124,444 N/A 47,568 124,668 121.6% 5,066 (3,510) 1,556 1.6%

2015 120,938 101,689 116,443 58,628 35,843 N/A 54,646 90,489 128.8% 61,230 56,711 59,626 N/A 39,574 61,229 127.4% 14,188 15,072 29,260 1.4%

Total 759,941 2,092,751 865,575 2,053,718 1,882,245 204,238 2,086,483 717,617 2,042,637 809,858 202,397 2,054,023 30,619 1,841 32,460

2014 & Prior 639,003 1,991,062 749,132 1,995,090 1,846,401 149,592 1,995,993 656,387 1,985,926 750,232 162,823 1,992,793 16,431 (13,231) 3,200




Exhibit B.3.4.3





2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2




Exhibit B.3.4.3




Accident Half Year

2015 / 22015 / 12014 / 22014 / 12013 / 22013 / 12012 / 22012 / 12011 / 22011 / 12010 / 22010 / 12009 / 22009 / 12008 / 22008 / 12007 / 22007 / 12006 / 22006 / 12005 / 22005 / 12004 / 22004 / 12003 / 22003 / 12002 / 22002 / 12001 / 22001 / 12000 / 22000 / 11999 / 21999 / 11998 / 21998 / 11997 / 21997 / 11996 / 21996 / 11995 / 2


2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2




Exhibit B.3.4.4f-1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 25,327 39,002 (20) 38,982 38,982 38,982 38,982 38,982

1994 / 1 25,506 42,998 588 43,586 43,586 - 100.0% 43,586 43,586 43,586

1994 / 2 36,758 34,858 4,420 39,278 39,278 - 100.0% 39,278 39,278 39,278

1995 / 1 41,493 9,275 (0) 9,275 9,275 - 100.0% 9,275 9,275 9,275

1995 / 2 43,505 - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1996 / 1 40,719 - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1996 / 2 37,482 - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1997 / 1 31,432 4,487 (0) 4,486 4,489 - 100.0% 4,489 4,486 4,488

1997 / 2 25,398 18,353 (1) 18,352 18,371 - 100.0% 18,371 18,352 18,370

1998 / 1 20,243 13,306 687 13,993 14,025 - 100.0% 14,025 13,993 14,025

1998 / 2 14,631 13,749 (1) 13,749 13,800 - 100.0% 13,800 13,749 13,800

1999 / 1 11,416 14,856 951 15,807 15,905 - 100.0% 15,905 15,807 15,905

1999 / 2 10,679 13,988 3 13,991 14,094 - 100.0% 14,094 13,991 14,095

2000 / 1 10,710 16,838 16 16,854 17,006 - 100.0% 17,006 16,854 17,006

2000 / 2 11,173 14,393 (0) 14,392 14,534 - 100.0% 14,534 14,392 14,533

2001 / 1 11,254 13,886 323 14,209 14,390 - 100.0% 14,390 14,209 14,390

2001 / 2 13,430 26,587 611 27,198 27,573 - 100.0% 27,573 27,198 27,573

2002 / 1 16,530 25,286 305 25,591 26,001 - 100.0% 26,001 25,591 26,001

2002 / 2 19,052 25,841 971 26,812 27,305 - 100.0% 27,305 26,812 27,305

2003 / 1 21,501 29,078 851 29,929 30,562 - 100.0% 30,562 29,929 30,562

2003 / 2 25,340 19,321 61 19,382 19,845 - 100.0% 19,845 19,382 19,845

2004 / 1 28,254 20,055 1,402 21,457 22,058 - 100.0% 22,058 21,457 22,058

2004 / 2 28,750 27,299 17 27,316 28,196 - 100.0% 28,196 27,316 28,196

2005 / 1 27,379 18,285 280 18,565 19,268 - 100.0% 19,268 18,565 19,268

2005 / 2 26,127 25,002 839 25,842 26,979 - 100.0% 26,979 25,842 26,979

2006 / 1 26,051 23,923 233 24,156 25,227 - 100.0% 25,227 24,156 25,226

2006 / 2 28,911 42,807 4,131 46,938 49,120 - 100.0% 49,120 46,938 49,120

2007 / 1 29,312 32,620 1,220 33,841 35,472 - 100.0% 35,472 33,841 35,473

2007 / 2 29,851 37,768 2,349 40,117 42,247 - 100.0% 42,247 40,117 42,247

2008 / 1 36,058 57,242 3,629 60,871 64,604 - 100.0% 64,604 60,871 64,604

2008 / 2 36,930 66,739 3,085 69,825 74,569 - 100.0% 74,569 69,825 74,569

2009 / 1 37,643 84,339 1,985 86,324 92,569 - 100.0% 92,569 86,324 92,569

2009 / 2 41,585 107,817 6,882 114,699 82,753 123,506 7.1% 92.9% 120,600 - 100.0% 123,506 114,699 199.0% 297.0% 290.0% 297.0% 275.8% 123,506 297.0%

2010 / 1 50,575 139,405 11,607 151,012 85,471 162,824 7.3% 92.7% 157,212 - 100.0% 162,824 151,012 169.0% 321.9% 310.9% 321.9% 298.6% 162,825 321.9%

2010 / 2 60,856 85,291 13,066 98,356 59,639 106,217 7.4% 92.6% 102,770 - 100.0% 106,217 98,356 98.0% 174.5% 168.9% 174.5% 161.6% 106,216 174.5%

2011 / 1 55,482 41,755 12,019 53,773 48,270 58,439 8.0% 92.0% 57,627 - 100.0% 58,439 53,773 87.0% 105.3% 103.9% 105.3% 96.9% 58,439 105.3%

2011 / 2 56,801 33,766 12,539 46,305 56,801 50,930 9.1% 90.9% 51,463 12.5% 87.5% 51,664 46,305 100.0% 89.7% 90.6% 91.0% 81.5% 51,464 90.6%

2012 / 1 62,243 30,441 16,857 47,299 54,774 52,856 10.5% 89.5% 53,057 25.0% 75.0% 53,335 47,299 88.0% 84.9% 85.2% 85.7% 76.0% 53,058 85.2%

2012 / 2 63,075 31,910 24,694 56,604 64,336 64,660 12.5% 87.5% 64,619 37.5% 62.5% 64,538 56,604 102.0% 102.5% 102.4% 102.3% 89.7% 64,619 102.4%

2013 / 1 61,986 27,036 18,417 45,453 57,647 54,697 16.9% 83.1% 55,196 50.0% 50.0% 56,172 45,453 93.0% 88.2% 89.0% 90.6% 73.3% 55,196 89.0%

2013 / 2 58,231 23,538 22,442 45,981 65,802 60,015 23.4% 76.6% 61,368 62.5% 37.5% 63,631 45,981 113.0% 103.1% 105.4% 109.3% 79.0% 61,368 105.4%

2014 / 1 50,606 14,727 19,981 34,708 53,137 49,552 30.0% 70.0% 50,626 75.0% 25.0% 52,241 34,708 105.0% 97.9% 100.0% 103.2% 68.6% 52,241 103.2%

2014 / 2 48,449 11,960 33,522 45,482 62,984 71,570 36.5% 63.5% 68,440 87.5% 12.5% 64,057 45,482 130.0% 147.7% 141.3% 132.2% 93.9% 68,441 141.3%

2015 / 1 46,225 5,056 21,083 26,138 55,932 53,337 51.0% 49.0% 54,660 100.0% - 55,932 26,138 121.0% 115.4% 118.2% 121.0% 56.5% 55,932 121.0%

2015 / 2 21,496 324 8,622 8,946 59,275 45,359 80.3% 19.7% 56,530 - - - 8,946 141.0% 107.9% 134.5% - 30,309 141.0%

Total 1,506,456 1,365,207 250,666 1,615,873 806,820 1,823,292 954,170 1,781,887 1,615,873 1,812,941




Exhibit B.3.4.4f-2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 38,982 - - 38,982 - - -

1994 / 1 - - - Link Ratio Method - 43,586 - Link Ratio Method - 43,376 210 - 210






1997 / 1 2 2 - Link Ratio Method 2 4,488 4 Link Ratio Method 4 4,490 - (2) (2)

1997 / 2 18 18 - Link Ratio Method 18 18,370 18 Link Ratio Method 18 18,370 - - -




1999 / 2 104 104 - Link Ratio Method 104 14,095 101 Link Ratio Method 101 14,090 2 3 5



2001 / 1 181 181 - Link Ratio Method 181 14,390 204 Link Ratio Method 204 14,395 18 (23) (5)

2001 / 2 375 375 - Link Ratio Method 375 27,573 375 Link Ratio Method 375 27,573 - - -


2002 / 2 493 493 - Link Ratio Method 493 27,305 494 Link Ratio Method 494 27,302 4 (1) 3






2005 / 2 1,137 1,137 - Link Ratio Method 1,137 26,979 1,143 Link Ratio Method 1,143 26,984 - (6) (6)

2006 / 1 1,070 1,070 - Link Ratio Method 1,070 25,226 1,072 Link Ratio Method 1,072 25,324 (95) (2) (97)

2006 / 2 2,182 2,182 - Link Ratio Method 2,182 49,120 2,242 Link Ratio Method 2,242 48,672 508 (60) 448

2007 / 1 1,632 1,632 - Link Ratio Method 1,632 35,473 1,641 Link Ratio Method 1,641 35,477 5 (9) (4)



2008 / 2 4,744 4,744 - Link Ratio Method 4,744 74,569 4,964 Link Ratio Method 4,964 75,745 (957) (220) (1,177)

2009 / 1 6,245 6,245 - Link Ratio Method 6,245 92,569 6,419 Link Ratio Method 6,419 92,797 (54) (174) (228)

2009 / 2 (31,946) 8,807 5,901 8,807 - Link Ratio Method 8,807 123,506 297.0% (29,206) 9,046 6,244 Link Ratio Method 9,046 123,500 297.0% 245 (239) 6 -

2010 / 1 (65,540) 11,813 6,201 11,813 - Link Ratio Method 11,813 162,825 321.9% (63,457) 11,572 6,230 Link Ratio Method 11,572 162,523 321.4% 60 241 301 0.5%

2010 / 2 (38,718) 7,860 4,413 7,860 - Link Ratio Method 7,860 106,216 174.5% (37,720) 8,120 4,631 Link Ratio Method 8,120 106,696 175.3% (220) (260) (480) (0.8%)

2011 / 1 (5,504) 4,666 3,854 4,666 - Link Ratio Method 4,666 58,439 105.3% (4,024) 4,792 4,066 Link Ratio Method 4,792 58,195 104.9% 370 (126) 244 0.4%

2011 / 2 10,496 4,625 5,159 5,359 - BF Method 5,159 51,464 90.6% 12,652 5,044 5,798 BF Method 5,798 51,651 90.9% 452 (639) (187) (0.3%)

2012 / 1 7,475 5,557 5,759 6,037 - BF Method 5,759 53,058 85.2% 10,119 5,701 6,189 BF Method 6,189 52,089 83.7% 1,399 (430) 969 1.5%

2012 / 2 7,732 8,055 8,015 7,934 - BF Method 8,015 64,619 102.4% 10,513 9,125 9,320 BF Method 9,320 65,036 103.1% 889 (1,305) (416) (0.7%)

2013 / 1 12,194 9,244 9,743 10,719 - BF Method 9,743 55,196 89.0% 14,759 10,817 11,593 BF Method 11,593 55,721 89.9% 1,325 (1,850) (525) (0.9%)

2013 / 2 19,821 14,034 15,387 17,651 - BF Method 15,387 61,368 105.4% 24,377 16,044 18,302 BF Method 18,302 61,475 105.6% 2,807 (2,915) (108) (0.2%)

2014 / 1 18,429 14,845 15,919 17,533 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 17,533 52,241 103.2% 21,880 15,949 17,890 ELR & LR Wtd Method 20,398 53,176 105.1% 1,929 (2,865) (936) (1.9%)

2014 / 2 17,502 26,089 22,959 18,575 - BF Method 22,959 68,441 141.3% 22,286 28,601 26,066 ELR & LR Wtd Method 23,075 65,733 135.6% 2,823 (116) 2,707 5.7%

2015 / 1 29,794 27,199 28,522 29,794 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 29,794 55,932 121.0% 37,169 33,640 35,805 37,169 58,372 126.0% 4,935 (7,375) (2,440) (5.0%)

2015 / 2 - - - - - - 21,363 30,309 141.0% - - - - - - - 8,946 21,363 30,309 141.0%

Total (18,264) 171,007 131,831 174,960 - 197,068 1,812,941 19,349 187,994 152,134 194,917 1,784,950 25,839 2,151 27,990

2015 / 1 & Prior (18,264) 171,007 131,831 174,960 - 175,705 1,782,632 19,349 187,994 152,134 194,917 1,784,950 16,893 (19,212) (2,319)




Exhibit B.3.4.4g-1





Coverage: Uninsured Automobile

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 41 20 61 61 61 61 61

1994 / 1 - - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1994 / 2 - 17,771 329 18,100 18,100 - 100.0% 18,100 18,100 18,100

1995 / 1 - 40,942 31 40,974 40,974 - 100.0% 40,974 40,974 40,974

1995 / 2 - 54,118 3,237 57,355 57,355 - 100.0% 57,355 57,355 57,355

1996 / 1 - 34,441 (1) 34,439 34,439 - 100.0% 34,439 34,439 34,439

1996 / 2 - 38,267 4,363 42,630 42,630 - 100.0% 42,630 42,630 42,630

1997 / 1 - 11,829 157 11,986 11,986 - 100.0% 11,986 11,986 11,986

1997 / 2 - 3,825 (0) 3,825 3,825 - 100.0% 3,825 3,825 3,825

1998 / 1 - 647 0 647 647 - 100.0% 647 647 647

1998 / 2 - 500 (0) 500 500 - 100.0% 500 500 500

1999 / 1 - 484 (0) 484 484 - 100.0% 484 484 484

1999 / 2 - 431 0 431 431 - 100.0% 431 431 431

2000 / 1 - 180 (0) 180 180 - 100.0% 180 180 180

2000 / 2 - 441 0 441 441 - 100.0% 441 441 441

2001 / 1 - 428 - 428 428 - 100.0% 428 428 428

2001 / 2 - 457 (0) 457 457 - 100.0% 457 457 457

2002 / 1 - 866 (0) 866 866 - 100.0% 866 866 866

2002 / 2 0 393 (0) 393 393 - 100.0% 393 393 393

2003 / 1 0 706 - 706 706 - 100.0% 706 706 706

2003 / 2 - 1,247 (0) 1,247 1,247 - 100.0% 1,247 1,247 1,247

2004 / 1 - 1,020 0 1,020 1,019 - 100.0% 1,019 1,020 1,020

2004 / 2 (0) 1,684 15 1,700 1,693 - 100.0% 1,693 1,700 1,700

2005 / 1 (0) 1,288 0 1,288 1,275 - 100.0% 1,275 1,288 1,288

2005 / 2 (0) 468 35 503 497 - 100.0% 497 503 503

2006 / 1 (0) 817 193 1,010 998 - 100.0% 998 1,010 1,010

2006 / 2 (0) 1,388 64 1,452 1,431 - 100.0% 1,431 1,452 1,431

2007 / 1 (2) 1,970 30 1,999 1,965 - 100.0% 1,965 1,999 1,964

2007 / 2 (2) 1,135 177 1,312 1,284 - 100.0% 1,284 1,312 1,284

2008 / 1 (2) 1,687 295 1,981 1,927 - 100.0% 1,927 1,981 1,926

2008 / 2 3 3,538 1,431 4,969 4,782 - 100.0% 4,782 4,969 4,781

2009 / 1 405 3,732 689 4,421 4,203 - 100.0% 4,203 4,421 4,202

2009 / 2 1,262 2,309 1,406 3,716 2,575 3,525 (5.4%) 105.4% 3,576 - 100.0% 3,525 3,716 204.0% 279.3% 283.3% 279.3% 294.4% 3,525 279.2%

2010 / 1 1,755 2,211 1,208 3,420 2,773 3,231 (5.8%) 105.8% 3,258 - 100.0% 3,231 3,420 158.0% 184.1% 185.6% 184.1% 194.9% 3,231 184.1%

2010 / 2 1,979 1,938 1,848 3,787 3,502 3,536 (7.1%) 107.1% 3,539 - 100.0% 3,536 3,787 177.0% 178.7% 178.9% 178.7% 191.4% 3,537 178.7%

2011 / 1 1,798 1,222 1,913 3,135 2,626 2,900 (8.1%) 108.1% 2,922 - 100.0% 2,900 3,135 146.0% 161.2% 162.5% 161.2% 174.3% 2,900 161.3%

2011 / 2 1,752 827 1,088 1,915 3,137 1,769 (8.2%) 108.2% 1,656 12.5% 87.5% 1,940 1,915 179.0% 101.0% 94.5% 110.7% 109.3% 1,940 110.7%

2012 / 1 1,829 725 1,990 2,715 2,743 2,545 (6.7%) 106.7% 2,531 25.0% 75.0% 2,594 2,715 150.0% 139.1% 138.4% 141.8% 148.5% 2,715 148.5%

2012 / 2 1,867 782 1,851 2,633 3,361 2,566 (2.6%) 102.6% 2,545 37.5% 62.5% 2,864 2,633 180.0% 137.4% 136.3% 153.4% 141.0% 2,864 153.4%

2013 / 1 1,869 326 1,648 1,975 2,804 2,081 5.1% 94.9% 2,118 50.0% 50.0% 2,442 1,975 150.0% 111.3% 113.3% 130.7% 105.6% 2,443 130.7%

2013 / 2 1,831 226 2,309 2,535 3,350 3,316 23.5% 76.5% 3,324 62.5% 37.5% 3,337 2,535 183.0% 181.1% 181.6% 182.3% 138.5% 3,337 182.3%

2014 / 1 1,698 168 1,110 1,278 2,616 2,246 43.1% 56.9% 2,405 75.0% 25.0% 2,523 1,278 154.0% 132.2% 141.6% 148.6% 75.3% 2,523 148.6%

2014 / 2 1,720 135 565 699 3,233 1,530 54.3% 45.7% 2,455 87.5% 12.5% 3,020 699 188.0% 89.0% 142.7% 175.6% 40.7% 3,020 175.6%

2015 / 1 1,717 141 493 634 2,696 1,965 67.7% 32.3% 2,460 100.0% - 2,696 634 157.0% 114.5% 143.3% 157.0% 36.9% 2,695 157.0%

2015 / 2 817 33 92 124 3,035 1,028 87.9% 12.1% 2,793 - - - 124 190.0% 64.4% 174.8% - 1,552 190.0%

Total 22,296 237,785 28,587 266,372 38,449 269,459 35,581 271,831 266,372 273,542




Exhibit B.3.4.4g-2





Coverage: Uninsured Automobile

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 61 - - 61 - - -






1996 / 2 - - - Link Ratio Method - 42,630 - Link Ratio Method - 40,085 2,545 - 2,545









2001 / 1 - - - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 428 - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 428 - - -





2003 / 2 - - - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 1,247 - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 1,247 - - -

2004 / 1 (1) (1) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 1,020 (2) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 1,021 - - -

2004 / 2 (7) (7) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 1,700 (11) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 1,700 - - -

2005 / 1 (12) (12) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 1,288 (17) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 1,288 (1) - (1)

2005 / 2 (6) (6) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 503 (6) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 503 - - -

2006 / 1 (12) (12) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 1,010 (11) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 816 194 - 194

2006 / 2 (21) (21) - Link Ratio Method (21) 1,431 (23) Link Ratio Method (23) 1,428 1 2 3

2007 / 1 (35) (35) - Link Ratio Method (35) 1,964 (37) Link Ratio Method (37) 1,979 (17) 2 (15)

2007 / 2 (28) (28) - Link Ratio Method (28) 1,284 (31) Link Ratio Method (31) 1,280 1 3 4


2008 / 2 (188) (188) - Link Ratio Method (188) 4,781 (181) Link Ratio Method (181) 3,897 891 (7) 884


2009 / 2 (1,141) (191) (139) (191) - Link Ratio Method (191) 3,525 279.2% (1,046) (181) (138) Link Ratio Method (181) 3,579 283.5% (44) (10) (54) (4.3%)

2010 / 1 (647) (189) (162) (189) - Link Ratio Method (189) 3,231 184.1% (500) (212) (193) Link Ratio Method (212) 3,219 183.4% (11) 23 12 0.7%

2010 / 2 (285) (250) (248) (250) - Link Ratio Method (250) 3,537 178.7% (174) (272) (280) Link Ratio Method (272) 3,602 182.0% (87) 22 (65) (3.3%)

2011 / 1 (509) (235) (213) (235) - Link Ratio Method (235) 2,900 161.3% (231) (241) (242) Link Ratio Method (241) 2,777 154.4% 117 6 123 6.9%

2011 / 2 1,222 (146) (259) 25 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 25 1,940 110.7% 1,397 (139) (259) ELR & LR Wtd Method 53 1,967 112.3% - (28) (28) (1.6%)

2012 / 1 28 (171) (184) (121) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 2,715 148.5% 203 (142) (162) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 2,686 146.9% 29 - 29 1.6%

2012 / 2 728 (67) (88) 231 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 231 2,864 153.4% 876 10 13 ELR & LR Wtd Method 335 3,007 161.0% (39) (104) (143) (7.6%)

2013 / 1 829 106 143 468 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 468 2,443 130.7% 1,282 184 292 ELR & LR Wtd Method 733 2,423 129.6% 285 (265) 20 1.1%

2013 / 2 815 780 789 802 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 802 3,337 182.3% 1,369 1,295 1,323 ELR & LR Wtd Method 1,341 3,523 192.5% 353 (539) (186) (10.2%)

2014 / 1 1,337 968 1,127 1,245 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 1,245 2,523 148.6% 1,735 991 1,355 ELR & LR Wtd Method 1,549 2,583 152.1% 244 (304) (60) (3.5%)

2014 / 2 2,534 831 1,755 2,321 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 2,321 3,020 175.6% 2,777 931 2,032 ELR & LR Wtd Method 2,546 3,176 184.6% 69 (225) (156) (9.0%)

2015 / 1 2,061 1,331 1,825 2,061 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 2,061 2,695 157.0% 2,405 1,416 2,166 2,405 2,857 166.0% 182 (344) (162) (9.0%)

2015 / 2 - - - - - - 1,428 1,552 190.0% - - - - - - - 124 1,428 1,552 190.0%

Total 6,972 2,184 4,347 5,583 - 7,170 273,542 10,094 3,017 5,908 7,480 269,073 4,777 (310) 4,467

2015 / 1 & Prior 6,972 2,184 4,347 5,583 - 5,742 271,989 10,094 3,017 5,908 7,480 269,073 4,653 (1,738) 2,915




Exhibit B.4.1



Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: Other Coverages

RSP: Ontario

Life to Date

Accident YearEarned

Premium






Claims Expense


Claims Expense


[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]


2010 & prior 720,328 611,266 84.9% 1,306 0.2% 612,572 85.0% 13 - 612,585 85.0% 1,319 0.2%

2011 46,452 42,188 90.8% 1,407 3.0% 43,595 93.8% 14 - 43,609 93.9% 1,421 3.1%

2012 46,021 41,114 89.3% 1,424 3.1% 42,538 92.4% 41 0.1% 42,579 92.5% 1,465 3.2%

2013 44,740 46,645 104.3% 1,661 3.7% 48,306 108.0% 244 0.5% 48,550 108.5% 1,905 4.3%

2014 42,047 48,246 114.7% 1,423 3.4% 49,669 118.1% 703 1.7% 50,372 119.8% 2,126 5.1%

2015 32,070 31,131 97.1% 5,114 15.9% 36,245 113.0% 2,613 8.1% 38,858 121.2% 7,727 24.1%

TOTAL 931,658 820,590 88.1% 12,335 1.3% 832,925 89.4% 3,628 0.4% 836,553 89.8% 15,963 1.7%

2014 & prior 899,588 789,459 87.8% 7,221 0.8% 796,680 88.6% 1,015 0.1% 797,695 88.7% 8,236 0.9%


Accident YearEarned

Premium (LTD)










[15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28]


2010 & prior 720,328 82 - (99) - (17) - (3) - (20) - (102) -

2011 46,452 671 1.4% (492) (1.1%) 179 0.4% 1 - 180 0.4% (491) (1.1%)

2012 46,021 16 - (38) (0.1%) (22) - (3) - (25) (0.1%) (41) (0.1%)

2013 44,740 28 0.1% - - 28 0.1% (99) (0.2%) (71) (0.2%) (99) (0.2%)

2014 42,047 219 0.5% (74) (0.2%) 145 0.3% 45 0.1% 190 0.5% (29) (0.1%)

TOTAL 899,588 1,016 0.1% (703) (0.1%) 313 - (59) - 254 - (762) (0.1%)



Unpaid








[29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]


2010 & prior 16 1,421 82 5.8% (17) (106.3%) (20) (1.4%)

2011 13 1,912 671 35.1% 179 1,376.9% 180 9.4%

2012 44 1,506 16 1.1% (22) (50.0%) (25) (1.7%)

2013 343 2,004 28 1.4% 28 8.2% (71) (3.5%)

2014 658 2,155 219 10.2% 145 22.0% 190 8.8%

TOTAL 1,074 8,998 1,016 11.3% 313 29.1% 254 2.8%



Exhibit B.4.2



Amounts in: $1,000s


RSP: Ontario






[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]


AY1995 & Prior 143,205 143,930 - 143,930 - 143,930 - - - - - - - - -

1996 54,603 44,131 (1) 44,130 - 44,130 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% - - - -

1997 42,917 33,072 5 33,077 - 33,077 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% - - - -

1998 30,222 23,388 10 23,398 - 23,398 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% - - - -

1999 20,100 18,098 2 18,100 - 18,100 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.1% - - (0.1%) (20)

2000 20,106 21,498 - 21,498 - 21,498 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% - - - -

2001 23,724 22,306 - 22,306 - 22,306 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% - - - -

2002 33,552 30,176 - 30,176 - 30,176 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% - - - -

2003 40,126 30,727 - 30,727 - 30,727 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% - - - -

2004 42,358 25,637 72 25,709 - 25,709 60.7% 60.7% 60.9% 60.7% 60.8% - (4) (0.1%) (42)

2005 38,642 26,216 - 26,216 - 26,216 67.8% 67.8% 67.9% 67.9% 68.0% - - (0.2%) (77)

2006 39,128 28,049 48 28,097 - 28,097 71.8% 71.8% 71.8% 71.8% 71.9% - - (0.1%) (39)

2007 43,387 35,545 62 35,607 - 35,607 82.1% 82.1% 82.1% 82.0% 82.1% - 1 - -

2008 47,738 42,375 68 42,443 2 42,445 88.9% 88.9% 89.1% 89.1% 89.1% - (4) (0.2%) (95)

2009 47,570 40,695 382 41,077 6 41,083 86.4% 86.4% 86.4% 86.4% 85.7% - (40) 0.7% 333

2010 52,950 45,423 658 46,081 5 46,086 87.0% 87.0% 86.8% 87.1% 87.1% - 27 (0.1%) (53)

2011 46,452 42,188 1,407 43,595 14 43,609 93.9% 93.5% 93.1% 93.2% 92.6% 0.4% 180 1.3% 604

2012 46,021 41,114 1,424 42,538 41 42,579 92.5% 92.6% 92.8% 93.0% 93.2% (0.1%) (25) (0.7%) (322)

2013 44,740 46,645 1,661 48,306 244 48,550 108.5% 108.7% 107.0% 107.0% 107.2% (0.2%) (71) 1.3% 582

2014 42,047 48,246 1,423 49,669 703 50,372 119.8% 119.3% 120.7% 119.6% 114.0% 0.5% 190 5.8% 2,439

2015 32,070 31,131 5,114 36,245 2,613 38,858 121.2% 124.0% 136.0% - - - -

TOTAL 931,658 820,590 12,335 832,925 3,628 836,553 89.8% 89.5% 89.2% 88.6% 88.0% 254 3,310

2014 & prior 899,588 789,459 7,221 796,680 1,015 797,695 88.7% 87.4% 87.4% 87.4% 86.8% 254 3,310




Exhibit B.4.3

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 82.0% 78.0% 4.0%

2005 / 1 81.0% 77.0% 4.0%

2005 / 2 92.0% 87.0% 5.0%

2006 / 1 88.0% 83.0% 5.0%

2006 / 2 95.0% 90.0% 5.0%

2007 / 1 91.0% 86.0% 5.0%

2007 / 2 97.0% 92.0% 5.0%

2008 / 1 91.0% 87.0% 4.0%

2008 / 2 97.0% 92.0% 5.0%

2009 / 1 91.0% 86.0% 5.0%

2009 / 2 99.0% 93.0% 6.0%

2010 / 1 94.0% 88.0% 6.0%

2010 / 2 99.0% 93.0% 6.0%

2011 / 1 96.0% 90.0% 6.0%

2011 / 2 106.0% 100.0% 6.0%

2012 / 1 103.0% 97.0% 6.0%

2012 / 2 112.0% 105.0% 7.0% Selected Model Loss Ratio Residuals Plot2013 / 1 107.0% 100.0% 7.0%

2013 / 2 114.0% 108.0% 6.0%

2014 / 1 109.0% 102.0% 7.0%

2014 / 2 119.0% 112.0% 7.0%

2015 / 1 113.0% 106.0% 7.0%

2015 / 2 121.0% 114.0% 7.0%

2016 / 1 116.0% 109.0% 7.0%

2016 / 2 124.0% 117.0% 7.0%

2017 / 1 118.0% 111.0% 7.0%

2017 / 2 127.0% 119.0% 8.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 21,103 13,365 72 13,437 63.7% 0.7379 1.0000 1.0000 15,572 1.0790 1.0000 1.0000 14,498 93.1% -

2005 / 1 20,018 12,281 0 12,281 61.4% 0.7710 1.0000 1.0000 15,435 1.1536 1.0000 1.0000 14,168 91.8% -

2005 / 2 18,624 13,934 0 13,934 74.8% 0.7986 1.0000 1.0000 14,873 1.0328 1.0000 1.0000 14,390 96.8% -

2006 / 1 18,244 11,277 (0) 11,277 61.8% 0.8168 1.0000 1.0000 14,902 1.0938 1.0000 1.0000 12,335 82.8% -

2006 / 2 20,884 16,772 48 16,820 80.5% 0.8321 1.0000 1.0000 17,378 1.0355 1.0000 1.0000 17,417 100.2% -

2007 / 1 21,592 17,391 3 17,394 80.6% 0.8409 1.0000 1.0000 18,158 1.1142 1.0000 1.0000 19,379 106.7% -

2007 / 2 21,797 18,153 59 18,212 83.6% 0.8539 1.0000 1.0000 18,613 1.0573 1.0000 1.0000 19,256 103.5% -

2008 / 1 23,634 20,523 0 20,523 86.8% 0.8544 1.0000 1.0000 20,192 1.0989 1.0000 1.0000 22,553 111.7% -

2008 / 2 24,104 21,857 67 21,926 91.0% 0.8532 1.0000 1.0000 20,565 1.0537 1.0000 1.0000 23,104 112.3% -

2009 / 1 23,650 19,393 261 19,661 83.1% 0.8579 1.0000 1.0000 20,289 1.1226 1.0000 1.0000 22,072 108.8% -

2009 / 2 23,919 21,293 170 21,462 89.7% 0.8761 1.0000 1.0000 20,956 1.0626 1.0000 1.0000 22,805 108.8% 2.5%

2010 / 1 25,891 21,494 387 21,885 84.5% 0.9125 1.0000 1.0000 23,626 1.1734 1.0000 1.0000 25,679 108.7% 2.3%

2010 / 2 27,059 23,849 321 24,174 89.3% 0.9344 1.0000 1.0000 25,284 1.1331 1.0000 1.0000 27,392 108.3% 2.2%

2011 / 1 23,873 20,553 848 21,405 89.7% 0.9471 1.0000 1.0000 22,609 1.1921 1.0000 1.0000 25,516 112.9% 2.2%

2011 / 2 22,579 20,964 1,051 22,024 97.5% 0.9745 1.0000 1.0000 22,003 1.1090 1.0000 1.0000 24,423 111.0% 2.2%

2012 / 1 23,075 19,035 1,072 20,124 87.2% 0.9892 1.0000 1.0000 22,825 1.1635 1.0000 1.0000 23,413 102.6% 2.2%

2012 / 2 22,946 22,063 390 22,480 98.0% 1.0022 1.0000 1.0000 22,996 1.0774 1.0000 1.0000 24,220 105.3% 14.5%

2013 / 1 22,430 21,199 670 21,941 97.8% 1.0035 1.0000 1.0000 22,508 1.1304 1.0000 1.0000 24,802 110.2% 14.4%

2013 / 2 22,311 25,418 991 26,680 119.6% 0.9967 1.0000 1.0000 22,238 1.0508 1.0000 1.0000 28,034 126.1% 14.5%

2014 / 1 20,832 23,455 663 24,338 116.8% 0.9939 1.0000 1.0000 20,704 1.0994 1.0000 1.0000 26,757 129.2% 14.5%

2014 / 2 21,225 24,573 833 25,844 121.8% 1.0061 1.0000 1.0000 21,354 1.0249 1.0000 1.0000 26,486 124.0% 14.6%

2015 / 1 21,544 20,653 3,946 26,705 124.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 21,544 1.0712 1.0000 1.0000 28,606 132.8% 14.6%

Total 491,334 429,495 11,852 444,527 90.5% 0.9049 1.0000 1.0000 444,624 1.0963 1.0000 1.0000 487,305 109.6% 100.7%



(5.0%)

10.0%

25.0%

40.0%

55.0%

70.0%

85.0%

100.0%

115.0%

130.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Other Coverages



(30.0%)

(25.0%)

(20.0%)

(15.0%)

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

-

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2



Exhibit B.4.3a

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: UM

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 60.0% 53.0% 7.0%

2005 / 1 55.0% 49.0% 6.0%

2005 / 2 63.0% 56.0% 7.0%

2006 / 1 57.0% 50.0% 7.0%

2006 / 2 65.0% 57.0% 8.0%

2007 / 1 58.0% 52.0% 6.0%

2007 / 2 65.0% 58.0% 7.0%

2008 / 1 58.0% 52.0% 6.0%

2008 / 2 65.0% 58.0% 7.0%

2009 / 1 58.0% 51.0% 7.0%

2009 / 2 64.0% 57.0% 7.0%

2010 / 1 57.0% 51.0% 6.0%

2010 / 2 65.0% 57.0% 8.0%

2011 / 1 58.0% 52.0% 6.0%

2011 / 2 66.0% 58.0% 8.0%

2012 / 1 61.0% 54.0% 7.0%


2013 / 2 72.0% 64.0% 8.0%

2014 / 1 65.0% 58.0% 7.0%

2014 / 2 75.0% 67.0% 8.0%

2015 / 1 69.0% 61.0% 8.0%

2015 / 2 79.0% 70.0% 9.0%

2016 / 1 72.0% 64.0% 8.0%

2016 / 2 83.0% 73.0% 10.0%

2017 / 1 75.0% 67.0% 8.0%

2017 / 2 86.0% 77.0% 9.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 792 345 72 418 52.7% 1.2380 1.0000 1.0000 980 1.6292 1.0000 1.0000 680 69.4% -

2005 / 1 774 559 (0) 559 72.2% 1.2491 1.0000 1.0000 967 1.7957 1.0000 1.0000 1,004 103.8% -

2005 / 2 746 266 (0) 266 35.7% 1.2457 1.0000 1.0000 929 1.5585 1.0000 1.0000 415 44.7% -

2006 / 1 754 20 - 20 2.7% 1.2329 1.0000 1.0000 930 1.7137 1.0000 1.0000 35 3.8% -

2006 / 2 893 201 48 250 28.0% 1.2170 1.0000 1.0000 1,087 1.4883 1.0000 1.0000 372 34.2% -

2007 / 1 940 294 (0) 294 31.3% 1.2040 1.0000 1.0000 1,132 1.6389 1.0000 1.0000 482 42.6% -

2007 / 2 983 662 60 722 73.4% 1.1819 1.0000 1.0000 1,162 1.4266 1.0000 1.0000 1,030 88.6% -

2008 / 1 1,084 112 0 112 10.4% 1.1553 1.0000 1.0000 1,252 1.5674 1.0000 1.0000 176 14.1% -

2008 / 2 1,134 468 64 534 47.0% 1.1250 1.0000 1.0000 1,276 1.3630 1.0000 1.0000 727 57.0% -

2009 / 1 1,146 224 243 475 41.4% 1.0956 1.0000 1.0000 1,256 1.4991 1.0000 1.0000 712 56.7% -

2009 / 2 1,229 324 69 392 31.9% 1.0607 1.0000 1.0000 1,304 1.3049 1.0000 1.0000 511 39.2% 8.3%

2010 / 1 1,315 533 348 885 67.3% 1.0339 1.0000 1.0000 1,360 1.4340 1.0000 1.0000 1,269 93.3% 8.3%

2010 / 2 1,416 270 304 578 40.8% 1.0204 1.0000 1.0000 1,445 1.2496 1.0000 1.0000 723 50.0% 8.3%

2011 / 1 1,227 114 838 956 77.9% 1.0073 1.0000 1.0000 1,236 1.3721 1.0000 1.0000 1,312 106.1% 8.3%

2011 / 2 1,201 103 1,020 1,131 94.2% 0.9917 1.0000 1.0000 1,191 1.1936 1.0000 1.0000 1,350 113.4% 8.3%

2012 / 1 1,256 75 1,020 1,111 88.5% 1.0073 1.0000 1.0000 1,265 1.3132 1.0000 1.0000 1,459 115.3% 8.3%

2012 / 2 1,313 34 304 365 27.8% 1.0112 1.0000 1.0000 1,328 1.1425 1.0000 1.0000 417 31.4% 8.3%

2013 / 1 1,355 324 526 925 68.3% 1.0045 1.0000 1.0000 1,361 1.2572 1.0000 1.0000 1,163 85.5% 8.3%

2013 / 2 1,294 16 922 1,193 92.2% 0.9978 1.0000 1.0000 1,291 1.0940 1.0000 1.0000 1,305 101.1% 8.3%

2014 / 1 1,152 12 497 721 62.6% 0.9934 1.0000 1.0000 1,144 1.2041 1.0000 1.0000 868 75.9% 8.3%

2014 / 2 1,150 10 353 771 67.1% 0.9978 1.0000 1.0000 1,147 1.0469 1.0000 1.0000 807 70.4% 8.3%

2015 / 1 1,084 12 62 661 61.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1,084 1.1504 1.0000 1.0000 761 70.2% 8.3%

Total 24,238 4,981 6,749 13,340 55.0% 1.0779 1.0000 1.0000 26,127 1.3177 1.0000 1.0000 17,578 67.3% 100.0%



(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Underinsured Motorist



(80.0%)

(60.0%)

(40.0%)

(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2



Exhibit B.4.3b

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: CL

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 90.0% 84.0% 6.0%

2005 / 1 89.0% 83.0% 6.0%

2005 / 2 95.0% 88.0% 7.0%

2006 / 1 93.0% 86.0% 7.0%

2006 / 2 98.0% 91.0% 7.0%

2007 / 1 95.0% 88.0% 7.0%

2007 / 2 100.0% 92.0% 8.0%

2008 / 1 96.0% 89.0% 7.0%

2008 / 2 100.0% 93.0% 7.0%

2009 / 1 96.0% 89.0% 7.0%

2009 / 2 102.0% 94.0% 8.0%

2010 / 1 101.0% 93.0% 8.0%

2010 / 2 104.0% 96.0% 8.0%

2011 / 1 102.0% 95.0% 7.0%

2011 / 2 112.0% 104.0% 8.0%

2012 / 1 110.0% 102.0% 8.0%


2013 / 2 121.0% 112.0% 9.0%

2014 / 1 117.0% 108.0% 9.0%

2014 / 2 125.0% 116.0% 9.0%

2015 / 1 120.0% 111.0% 9.0%

2015 / 2 127.0% 118.0% 9.0%

2016 / 1 123.0% 114.0% 9.0%

2016 / 2 130.0% 121.0% 9.0%

2017 / 1 126.0% 117.0% 9.0%

2017 / 2 134.0% 124.0% 10.0%



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 14,448 9,680 (0) 9,680 67.0% 0.7580 1.0000 1.0000 10,952 1.0644 1.0000 1.0000 10,303 94.1% -

2005 / 1 13,746 9,179 0 9,179 66.8% 0.7867 1.0000 1.0000 10,814 1.1211 1.0000 1.0000 10,290 95.2% -

2005 / 2 12,856 10,161 0 10,161 79.0% 0.8085 1.0000 1.0000 10,394 1.0765 1.0000 1.0000 10,938 105.2% -

2006 / 1 12,655 8,697 (0) 8,697 68.7% 0.8252 1.0000 1.0000 10,443 1.1276 1.0000 1.0000 9,807 93.9% -

2006 / 2 14,576 12,194 0 12,194 83.7% 0.8376 1.0000 1.0000 12,209 1.0803 1.0000 1.0000 13,174 107.9% -

2007 / 1 15,117 13,717 2 13,719 90.8% 0.8428 1.0000 1.0000 12,741 1.1323 1.0000 1.0000 15,534 121.9% -

2007 / 2 15,346 13,359 (0) 13,359 87.1% 0.8526 1.0000 1.0000 13,084 1.0847 1.0000 1.0000 14,491 110.8% -

2008 / 1 16,617 15,030 0 15,030 90.5% 0.8534 1.0000 1.0000 14,181 1.1248 1.0000 1.0000 16,906 119.2% -

2008 / 2 16,984 16,563 3 16,566 97.5% 0.8516 1.0000 1.0000 14,464 1.0817 1.0000 1.0000 17,920 123.9% -

2009 / 1 16,621 14,459 17 14,477 87.1% 0.8566 1.0000 1.0000 14,238 1.1373 1.0000 1.0000 16,465 115.6% -

2009 / 2 16,816 15,989 74 16,063 95.5% 0.8756 1.0000 1.0000 14,724 1.0934 1.0000 1.0000 17,564 119.3% -

2010 / 1 18,901 16,600 16 16,616 87.9% 0.9121 1.0000 1.0000 17,240 1.1494 1.0000 1.0000 19,098 110.8% -

2010 / 2 19,780 18,570 14 18,584 94.0% 0.9360 1.0000 1.0000 18,514 1.1435 1.0000 1.0000 21,250 114.8% -

2011 / 1 17,585 15,899 9 15,908 90.5% 0.9521 1.0000 1.0000 16,743 1.1808 1.0000 1.0000 18,784 112.2% -

2011 / 2 16,595 16,781 21 16,802 101.2% 0.9827 1.0000 1.0000 16,308 1.1142 1.0000 1.0000 18,720 114.8% -

2012 / 1 17,011 15,011 50 15,061 88.5% 0.9953 1.0000 1.0000 16,931 1.1494 1.0000 1.0000 17,311 102.2% -

2012 / 2 16,900 17,305 37 17,342 102.6% 1.0072 1.0000 1.0000 17,022 1.0843 1.0000 1.0000 18,804 110.5% 16.7%

2013 / 1 16,388 17,033 111 17,137 104.6% 1.0080 1.0000 1.0000 16,519 1.1177 1.0000 1.0000 19,154 116.0% 16.7%

2013 / 2 16,457 19,641 64 19,690 119.6% 1.0017 1.0000 1.0000 16,485 1.0540 1.0000 1.0000 20,753 125.9% 16.7%

2014 / 1 15,500 19,560 126 19,659 126.8% 0.9987 1.0000 1.0000 15,480 1.0877 1.0000 1.0000 21,383 138.1% 16.7%

2014 / 2 15,880 19,855 374 20,212 127.3% 1.0088 1.0000 1.0000 16,020 1.0263 1.0000 1.0000 20,743 129.5% 16.7%

2015 / 1 16,285 18,016 3,313 21,952 134.8% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 16,285 1.0595 1.0000 1.0000 23,258 142.8% 16.7%

Total 353,064 333,300 4,232 338,088 95.8% 0.9114 1.0000 1.0000 321,791 1.1022 1.0000 1.0000 372,650 115.8% 100.0%



(20.0%)

-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Collision (w All Perils)



(35.0%) (30.0%) (25.0%) (20.0%) (15.0%) (10.0%)

(5.0%) -

5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2



Exhibit B.4.3c

A Priori LRs

page 1 of 1


a priori LR model


RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s

Coverage: CM

Accident

Period

Current

Selected

Prior

SelectedChange

2004 / 2 64.0% 65.0% (1.0%)

2005 / 1 64.0% 65.0% (1.0%)

2005 / 2 88.0% 90.0% (2.0%)

2006 / 1 81.0% 82.0% (1.0%)

2006 / 2 92.0% 94.0% (2.0%)

2007 / 1 84.0% 85.0% (1.0%)

2007 / 2 95.0% 97.0% (2.0%)

2008 / 1 85.0% 87.0% (2.0%)

2008 / 2 94.0% 96.0% (2.0%)

2009 / 1 85.0% 86.0% (1.0%)

2009 / 2 96.0% 98.0% (2.0%)

2010 / 1 79.0% 80.0% (1.0%)

2010 / 2 91.0% 92.0% (1.0%)

2011 / 1 83.0% 84.0% (1.0%)

2011 / 2 96.0% 97.0% (1.0%)

2012 / 1 89.0% 90.0% (1.0%)


2013 / 2 102.0% 104.0% (2.0%)

2014 / 1 93.0% 94.0% (1.0%)

2014 / 2 106.0% 108.0% (2.0%)

2015 / 1 96.0% 98.0% (2.0%)

2015 / 2 108.0% 110.0% (2.0%)

2016 / 1 98.0% 100.0% (2.0%)

2016 / 2 110.0% 112.0% (2.0%)

2017 / 1 99.0% 101.0% (2.0%)

2017 / 2 111.0% 113.0% (2.0%)



Accident

Period

Actual

Earned

Premium

Paid Claims

Amount

Case

Reserves

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount*

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio


class, etc.)Other

EP @ 2015 /

2 rate level

Loss Cost

Trend Factor

Reform Adj

FactorOther Factor

Ult. Clms

Amt @ 2015

/ 2 clms level

On-Level to

2015 / 2 Loss

Ratios

Weights

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]



=[1]*[6]*[7]*

[8]

trend


=[4]*[10]*

[11]*[12]=[13]/[9] selected

2004 / 2 5,863 3,339 0 3,339 57.0% 0.6208 1.0000 1.0000 3,640 1.0525 1.0000 1.0000 3,515 96.6% -

2005 / 1 5,498 2,544 0 2,544 46.3% 0.6646 1.0000 1.0000 3,654 1.1300 1.0000 1.0000 2,874 78.7% -

2005 / 2 5,022 3,507 - 3,507 69.8% 0.7069 1.0000 1.0000 3,550 0.8661 1.0000 1.0000 3,037 85.5% -

2006 / 1 4,835 2,560 (0) 2,560 52.9% 0.7298 1.0000 1.0000 3,529 0.9740 1.0000 1.0000 2,493 70.6% -

2006 / 2 5,415 4,376 0 4,376 80.8% 0.7539 1.0000 1.0000 4,082 0.8847 1.0000 1.0000 3,871 94.8% -

2007 / 1 5,535 3,380 1 3,380 61.1% 0.7741 1.0000 1.0000 4,285 0.9950 1.0000 1.0000 3,363 78.5% -

2007 / 2 5,468 4,131 0 4,131 75.6% 0.7986 1.0000 1.0000 4,367 0.9041 1.0000 1.0000 3,735 85.5% -

2008 / 1 5,933 5,380 0 5,380 90.7% 0.8022 1.0000 1.0000 4,759 1.0169 1.0000 1.0000 5,471 115.0% -

2008 / 2 5,986 4,826 0 4,826 80.6% 0.8061 1.0000 1.0000 4,825 0.9235 1.0000 1.0000 4,457 92.4% -

2009 / 1 5,883 4,710 0 4,710 80.1% 0.8151 1.0000 1.0000 4,795 1.0393 1.0000 1.0000 4,895 102.1% -

2009 / 2 5,874 4,980 27 5,006 85.2% 0.8390 1.0000 1.0000 4,928 0.9448 1.0000 1.0000 4,730 96.0% 8.3%

2010 / 1 5,675 4,360 23 4,384 77.2% 0.8856 1.0000 1.0000 5,026 1.2118 1.0000 1.0000 5,312 105.7% 8.3%

2010 / 2 5,863 5,009 3 5,012 85.5% 0.9082 1.0000 1.0000 5,325 1.0812 1.0000 1.0000 5,419 101.8% 8.3%

2011 / 1 5,061 4,540 1 4,541 89.7% 0.9149 1.0000 1.0000 4,630 1.1936 1.0000 1.0000 5,420 117.1% 8.3%

2011 / 2 4,783 4,081 10 4,091 85.5% 0.9416 1.0000 1.0000 4,504 1.0640 1.0000 1.0000 4,353 96.6% 8.3%

2012 / 1 4,808 3,949 2 3,951 82.2% 0.9628 1.0000 1.0000 4,629 1.1750 1.0000 1.0000 4,643 100.3% 8.3%

2012 / 2 4,733 4,724 50 4,774 100.9% 0.9817 1.0000 1.0000 4,646 1.0473 1.0000 1.0000 4,999 107.6% 8.3%

2013 / 1 4,687 3,842 33 3,878 82.7% 0.9875 1.0000 1.0000 4,628 1.1563 1.0000 1.0000 4,485 96.9% 8.3%

2013 / 2 4,560 5,760 5 5,797 127.1% 0.9784 1.0000 1.0000 4,462 1.0310 1.0000 1.0000 5,976 133.9% 8.3%

2014 / 1 4,180 3,882 41 3,958 94.7% 0.9760 1.0000 1.0000 4,080 1.1384 1.0000 1.0000 4,506 110.4% 8.3%

2014 / 2 4,195 4,708 106 4,861 115.9% 0.9981 1.0000 1.0000 4,187 1.0155 1.0000 1.0000 4,936 117.9% 8.3%

2015 / 1 4,175 2,626 570 4,092 98.0% 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 4,175 1.1210 1.0000 1.0000 4,587 109.9% 8.3%

Total 114,032 91,214 871 93,098 81.6% 0.8481 1.0000 1.0000 96,706 1.0428 1.0000 1.0000 97,077 100.4% 100.0%



-

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2

RSP: Ontario - Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)



(40.0%)

(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

-

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

'04H2

'05H2

'06H2

'07H2

'08H2

'09H2

'10H2

'11H2

'12H2

'13H2

'14H2

'15H2

'16H2

'17H2



Exhibit B.4.4.1






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Selected

Ultimate

Loss Ratio[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]

=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 23,911 31,670 - 31,670 31,670 31,670 31,670 31,670

1994 54,937 56,909 1 56,909 56,909 56,909 56,909 103.6% 103.6% 103.6% 56,909 103.6%

1995 64,357 55,351 (0) 55,351 55,351 55,351 55,351 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% 55,351 86.0%

1996 54,603 44,131 (0) 44,130 44,130 44,130 44,130 80.8% 80.8% 80.8% 44,130 80.8%

1997 42,917 33,072 5 33,077 33,077 33,077 33,077 77.1% 77.1% 77.1% 33,077 77.1%

1998 30,222 23,388 9 23,398 23,398 23,398 23,398 77.4% 77.4% 77.4% 23,398 77.4%

1999 20,100 18,098 2 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 90.1% 90.1% 90.1% 18,100 90.1%

2000 20,106 21,498 (0) 21,498 21,498 21,498 21,498 106.9% 106.9% 106.9% 21,498 106.9%

2001 23,724 22,306 (0) 22,306 22,306 22,306 22,306 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% 22,306 94.0%

2002 33,552 30,176 (0) 30,176 30,176 30,176 30,176 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% 30,176 89.9%

2003 40,126 30,727 0 30,727 30,727 30,727 30,727 76.6% 76.6% 76.6% 30,727 76.6%

2004 42,358 25,637 72 25,709 25,709 25,709 25,709 60.7% 60.7% 60.7% 25,709 60.7%

2005 38,642 26,216 0 26,216 26,216 26,216 26,216 67.8% 67.8% 67.8% 26,216 67.8%

2006 39,128 28,049 48 28,097 28,100 28,100 28,097 71.8% 71.8% 71.8% 28,097 71.8%

2007 43,387 35,545 62 35,607 35,610 35,610 35,607 82.1% 82.1% 82.1% 35,607 82.1%

2008 47,738 42,375 67 42,443 42,445 42,445 42,443 88.9% 88.9% 88.9% 42,445 88.9%

2009 47,570 40,695 382 41,077 41,084 41,084 41,077 86.4% 86.4% 86.4% 41,083 86.4%

2010 52,950 45,423 658 46,081 51,149 46,085 - 100.0% 46,087 46,085 46,081 96.6% 87.0% 87.0% 87.0% 87.0% 46,086 87.0%

2011 46,452 42,188 1,408 43,595 46,820 43,611 (0.2%) 100.2% 43,606 43,873 43,595 100.8% 93.9% 93.9% 94.4% 93.8% 43,609 93.9%

2012 46,021 41,114 1,424 42,538 49,399 42,568 0.2% 99.8% 42,579 44,680 42,538 107.3% 92.5% 92.5% 97.1% 92.4% 42,579 92.5%

2013 44,740 46,645 1,661 48,306 49,507 48,597 (5.6%) 105.6% 48,546 48,912 48,306 110.7% 108.6% 108.5% 109.3% 108.0% 48,550 108.5%

2014 42,047 48,246 1,423 49,669 47,919 50,354 (0.7%) 100.7% 50,370 48,440 49,669 114.0% 119.8% 119.8% 115.2% 118.1% 50,372 119.8%

2015 32,070 31,131 5,113 36,245 49,269 49,453 (624.7%) 724.7% 50,599 24,251 36,245 38,858 121.2%

Total 931,659 820,590 12,335 832,925 294,064 847,173 281,787 822,746 832,925 836,553




Exhibit B.4.4.2






RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



MethodBF Method*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

ELR Method*LR Ratio


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 31,670 31,670 31,670 - 31,670 31,670 - 31,670 - - -

1994 56,909 56,909 56,909 N/A - 56,909 103.6% 56,909 N/A - 56,909 103.6% - - - -

1995 55,351 55,351 55,351 N/A - 55,351 86.0% 55,351 N/A - 55,351 86.0% - - - -

1996 44,130 44,130 44,130 N/A - 44,130 80.8% 44,130 N/A - 44,130 80.8% - - - -

1997 33,077 33,077 33,077 N/A - 33,077 77.1% 33,077 N/A - 33,077 77.1% - - - -

1998 23,398 23,398 23,398 N/A - 23,398 77.4% 23,398 N/A - 23,398 77.4% - - - -

1999 18,100 18,100 18,100 N/A - 18,100 90.1% 18,100 N/A - 18,100 90.1% - - - -

2000 21,498 21,498 21,498 N/A - 21,498 106.9% 21,498 N/A - 21,498 106.9% - - - -

2001 22,306 22,306 22,306 N/A - 22,306 94.0% 22,306 N/A - 22,306 94.0% - - - -

2002 30,176 30,176 30,176 N/A - 30,176 89.9% 30,176 N/A - 30,176 89.9% - - - -

2003 30,727 30,727 30,727 N/A - 30,727 76.6% 30,727 N/A - 30,727 76.6% - - - -

2004 25,709 25,709 25,709 N/A - 25,709 60.7% 25,712 N/A - 25,713 60.7% (4) - (4) -

2005 26,216 26,216 26,216 N/A - 26,216 67.8% 26,218 N/A - 26,216 67.8% - - - -

2006 28,100 28,100 28,097 N/A - 28,097 71.8% 28,101 N/A - 28,097 71.8% - - - -

2007 35,610 35,610 35,607 N/A - 35,607 82.1% 35,604 N/A - 35,606 82.1% 1 - 1 -

2008 42,445 42,445 42,443 N/A 2 42,445 88.9% 42,449 N/A 2 42,449 88.9% (4) - (4) -

2009 41,084 41,084 41,077 N/A 6 41,083 86.4% 41,123 N/A 6 41,123 86.4% (39) - (39) -

2010 51,149 46,085 46,087 46,085 46,081 N/A 5 46,086 87.0% 47,978 46,059 46,059 N/A 8 46,059 87.0% 30 (3) 27 -

2011 46,820 43,611 43,606 43,873 43,595 N/A 14 43,609 93.9% 44,190 43,435 43,428 N/A 13 43,429 93.5% 179 1 180 0.4%

2012 49,399 42,568 42,579 44,680 42,538 N/A 41 42,579 92.5% 46,467 42,599 42,603 N/A 44 42,604 92.6% (22) (3) (25) (0.1%)

2013 49,507 48,597 48,546 48,912 48,306 N/A 244 48,550 108.5% 46,538 48,801 48,616 N/A 343 48,621 108.7% 28 (99) (71) (0.2%)

2014 47,919 50,354 50,370 48,440 49,669 N/A 703 50,372 119.8% 45,059 50,344 50,254 N/A 658 50,182 119.3% 146 45 191 0.5%

2015 49,269 49,453 50,599 24,251 36,245 N/A 2,613 38,858 121.2% 22,830 25,919 26,102 N/A 2,106 26,705 124.0% 11,646 507 12,153 (2.8%)

Total 294,064 847,173 281,787 822,746 832,925 3,628 836,553 253,062 823,704 257,063 3,180 824,145 11,961 448 12,409

2014 & Prior 244,795 797,721 231,188 798,495 796,680 1,015 797,695 230,233 797,785 230,961 1,074 797,440 315 (59) 256




Exhibit B.4.4.3





2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2




Exhibit B.4.4.3




Accident Half Year

2015 / 22015 / 12014 / 22014 / 12013 / 22013 / 12012 / 22012 / 12011 / 22011 / 12010 / 22010 / 12009 / 22009 / 12008 / 22008 / 12007 / 22007 / 12006 / 22006 / 12005 / 22005 / 12004 / 22004 / 12003 / 22003 / 12002 / 22002 / 12001 / 22001 / 12000 / 22000 / 11999 / 21999 / 11998 / 21998 / 11997 / 21997 / 11996 / 21996 / 11995 / 2


2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q2




Exhibit B.4.4.4a-1





Coverage: Underinsured Motorist

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR*

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR*

ELR

Method

(no trend

change)

Ult LR*

User

Defined 2

Ult LR*

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 767 - 767 767 767 767 767

1994 / 1 - 60 - 60 60 - 100.0% 60 60 60

1994 / 2 - 119 0 119 119 - 100.0% 119 119 119

1995 / 1 - 60 - 60 60 - 100.0% 60 60 60

1995 / 2 - 90 - 90 90 - 100.0% 90 90 90

1996 / 1 - - - - - - 100.0% - - -

1996 / 2 - 7 (0) 7 7 - 100.0% 7 7 7

1997 / 1 - 13 - 13 13 - 100.0% 13 13 13

1997 / 2 - 565 - 565 565 - 100.0% 565 565 565

1998 / 1 - 131 (0) 131 131 - 100.0% 131 131 131

1998 / 2 - 52 - 52 52 - 100.0% 52 52 52

1999 / 1 - 7 - 7 7 - 100.0% 7 7 7

1999 / 2 - 106 - 106 106 - 100.0% 106 106 106

2000 / 1 - 151 (0) 151 151 - 100.0% 151 151 151

2000 / 2 - 597 0 597 597 - 100.0% 597 597 597

2001 / 1 - 35 - 35 35 - 100.0% 35 35 35

2001 / 2 - 39 - 39 39 - 100.0% 39 39 39

2002 / 1 - 138 - 138 138 - 100.0% 138 138 138

2002 / 2 0 666 (0) 666 666 - 100.0% 666 666 666

2003 / 1 0 215 - 215 215 - 100.0% 215 215 215

2003 / 2 - 674 (0) 674 674 - 100.0% 674 674 674

2004 / 1 - 224 - 224 224 - 100.0% 224 224 224

2004 / 2 (0) 345 72 418 417 - 100.0% 417 418 418

2005 / 1 (0) 559 (0) 559 559 - 100.0% 559 559 559

2005 / 2 0 266 (0) 266 267 - 100.0% 267 266 266

2006 / 1 (0) 20 - 20 21 - 100.0% 21 20 20

2006 / 2 (1) 201 48 250 252 - 100.0% 252 250 250

2007 / 1 (2) 294 (0) 294 297 - 100.0% 297 294 294

2007 / 2 (3) 664 60 723 723 - 100.0% 723 723 723

2008 / 1 (2) 112 0 112 112 - 100.0% 112 112 112

2008 / 2 1 468 64 532 534 - 100.0% 534 532 534

2009 / 1 306 224 251 475 480 - 100.0% 480 475 479

2009 / 2 975 325 9 334 624 336 0.6% 99.4% 338 - 100.0% 336 334 64.0% 34.4% 34.6% 34.4% 34.2% 336 34.4%

2010 / 1 1,315 542 305 847 750 848 0.1% 99.9% 848 - 100.0% 848 847 57.0% 64.5% 64.5% 64.5% 64.4% 848 64.5%

2010 / 2 1,416 327 299 626 920 629 0.6% 99.4% 631 - 100.0% 629 626 65.0% 44.4% 44.6% 44.4% 44.2% 630 44.5%

2011 / 1 1,227 128 1,156 1,285 712 1,292 0.6% 99.4% 1,289 - 100.0% 1,292 1,285 58.0% 105.3% 105.0% 105.3% 104.7% 1,292 105.3%

2011 / 2 1,201 758 221 979 792 987 0.9% 99.1% 986 12.5% 87.5% 963 979 66.0% 82.2% 82.1% 80.2% 81.5% 986 82.1%

2012 / 1 1,256 80 1,049 1,129 766 1,151 1.9% 98.1% 1,143 25.0% 75.0% 1,054 1,129 61.0% 91.6% 91.0% 84.0% 89.9% 1,144 91.1%

2012 / 2 1,313 38 249 287 919 296 2.9% 97.1% 314 37.5% 62.5% 529 287 70.0% 22.5% 23.9% 40.3% 21.9% 313 23.9%

2013 / 1 1,355 327 578 906 854 969 6.5% 93.5% 962 50.0% 50.0% 911 906 63.0% 71.5% 71.0% 67.3% 66.8% 962 71.0%

2013 / 2 1,294 27 870 897 932 1,125 20.3% 79.7% 1,086 62.5% 37.5% 1,004 897 72.0% 87.0% 83.9% 77.6% 69.3% 1,086 83.9%

2014 / 1 1,152 14 570 584 749 919 36.4% 63.6% 857 75.0% 25.0% 791 584 65.0% 79.8% 74.4% 68.7% 50.7% 791 68.7%

2014 / 2 1,149 10 353 363 862 694 47.7% 52.3% 774 87.5% 12.5% 841 363 75.0% 60.4% 67.4% 73.2% 31.6% 841 73.2%

2015 / 1 1,081 17 45 62 746 176 64.6% 35.4% 544 100.0% - 746 62 69.0% 16.3% 50.3% 69.0% 5.8% 746 69.0%

2015 / 2 501 - 15 15 774 127 87.9% 12.1% 696 - - - 15 79.0% 12.9% 71.0% - 395 78.9%

Total 15,533 10,466 6,214 16,680 10,399 17,927 10,466 18,324 16,680 18,742




Exhibit B.4.4.4a-2





Coverage: Underinsured Motorist

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 767 - - 767 - - -





















2004 / 1 0 0 - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 224 0 Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 224 - - -

2004 / 2 (1) (1) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 418 (1) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 418 - - -

2005 / 1 (1) (1) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 559 0 Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 559 - - -





2007 / 2 (0) (0) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 723 (3) Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 722 1 - 1

2008 / 1 (0) (0) - Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 112 0 Incurred (Zero IBNR) - 112 - - -

2008 / 2 2 2 - Link Ratio Method 2 534 2 Link Ratio Method 2 534 - - -

2009 / 1 4 4 - Link Ratio Method 4 479 7 Link Ratio Method 7 475 8 (3) 5

2009 / 2 290 2 4 2 - Link Ratio Method 2 336 34.4% 163 (1) (1) Link Ratio Method (1) 392 40.2% (59) 3 (56) (5.8%)

2010 / 1 (97) 1 1 1 - Link Ratio Method 1 848 64.5% (210) 4 3 Link Ratio Method 4 885 67.3% (34) (3) (37) (2.8%)

2010 / 2 295 4 5 4 - Link Ratio Method 4 630 44.5% 233 4 6 Link Ratio Method 4 578 40.8% 51 - 51 3.7%

2011 / 1 (573) 7 4 7 - Link Ratio Method 7 1,292 105.3% (314) 4 3 Link Ratio Method 4 956 78.0% 332 3 335 27.3%

2011 / 2 (186) 9 7 (16) - BF Method 7 986 82.1% (426) 15 9 BF Method 9 1,131 94.2% (144) (2) (146) (12.1%)

2012 / 1 (362) 22 15 (74) - BF Method 15 1,144 91.1% (416) 28 17 BF Method 17 1,111 88.5% 34 (2) 32 2.6%

2012 / 2 632 9 26 242 - BF Method 26 313 23.9% 476 11 27 BF Method 27 365 27.8% (51) (1) (52) (3.9%)

2013 / 1 (52) 63 56 6 - BF Method 56 962 71.0% (92) 93 75 BF Method 75 925 68.3% 55 (19) 36 2.7%

2013 / 2 35 228 189 107 - BF Method 189 1,086 83.9% (110) 417 255 BF Method 255 1,193 92.2% (41) (66) (107) (8.3%)

2014 / 1 164 335 273 207 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 207 791 68.7% 159 370 281 ELR & LR Wtd Method 212 721 62.6% 76 (5) 71 6.1%

2014 / 2 499 331 411 478 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 478 841 73.2% 407 414 410 ELR & LR Wtd Method 408 771 67.1% - 70 70 6.1%

2015 / 1 684 113 482 684 - ELR & LR Wtd Method 684 746 69.0% 587 233 501 587 661 61.0% (12) 97 85 8.0%

2015 / 2 - - - - - - 380 395 78.9% - - - - - - - 15 380 395 78.9%

Total 1,327 1,136 1,472 1,659 - 2,062 18,742 457 1,603 1,585 1,610 18,057 231 452 683

2015 / 1 & Prior 1,327 1,136 1,472 1,659 - 1,682 18,347 457 1,603 1,585 1,610 18,057 216 72 288




Exhibit B.4.4.4b-1





Coverage: Collision (w All Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 23,911 16,502 - 16,502 16,502 16,502 16,502 16,502

1994 / 1 24,306 15,458 0 15,458 15,458 - 100.0% 15,458 15,458 15,458

1994 / 2 30,630 15,558 0 15,558 15,558 - 100.0% 15,558 15,558 15,558

1995 / 1 32,728 15,055 (0) 15,055 15,055 - 100.0% 15,055 15,055 15,055

1995 / 2 31,629 14,683 (0) 14,683 14,683 - 100.0% 14,683 14,683 14,683

1996 / 1 28,520 12,837 (0) 12,837 12,837 - 100.0% 12,837 12,837 12,837

1996 / 2 26,083 11,328 (0) 11,328 11,328 - 100.0% 11,328 11,328 11,328

1997 / 1 22,824 10,275 1 10,276 10,276 - 100.0% 10,276 10,276 10,276

1997 / 2 20,093 9,006 (0) 9,006 9,006 - 100.0% 9,006 9,006 9,006

1998 / 1 17,115 7,729 5 7,734 7,734 - 100.0% 7,734 7,734 7,734

1998 / 2 13,107 6,533 (0) 6,533 6,533 - 100.0% 6,533 6,533 6,533

1999 / 1 10,390 5,929 2 5,931 5,931 - 100.0% 5,931 5,931 5,931

1999 / 2 9,710 6,384 0 6,384 6,384 - 100.0% 6,384 6,384 6,384

2000 / 1 9,812 6,145 0 6,145 6,145 - 100.0% 6,145 6,145 6,145

2000 / 2 10,294 8,241 (0) 8,241 8,241 - 100.0% 8,241 8,241 8,241

2001 / 1 10,549 6,668 (0) 6,668 6,668 - 100.0% 6,668 6,668 6,668

2001 / 2 13,175 8,499 (0) 8,499 8,499 - 100.0% 8,499 8,499 8,499

2002 / 1 15,749 9,228 (0) 9,228 9,228 - 100.0% 9,228 9,228 9,228

2002 / 2 17,802 11,773 (0) 11,773 11,773 - 100.0% 11,773 11,773 11,773

2003 / 1 19,284 11,561 0 11,561 11,561 - 100.0% 11,561 11,561 11,561

2003 / 2 20,842 9,902 (0) 9,902 9,902 - 100.0% 9,902 9,902 9,902

2004 / 1 21,255 8,816 0 8,816 8,816 - 100.0% 8,816 8,816 8,816

2004 / 2 21,103 9,680 (0) 9,680 9,680 - 100.0% 9,680 9,680 9,680

2005 / 1 20,018 9,179 0 9,179 9,179 - 100.0% 9,179 9,179 9,179

2005 / 2 18,624 10,161 0 10,161 10,161 - 100.0% 10,161 10,161 10,161

2006 / 1 18,245 8,697 (0) 8,697 8,697 - 100.0% 8,697 8,697 8,697

2006 / 2 20,889 12,194 0 12,194 12,194 - 100.0% 12,194 12,194 12,194

2007 / 1 21,614 13,717 2 13,719 13,719 - 100.0% 13,719 13,719 13,719

2007 / 2 21,828 13,359 (0) 13,359 13,359 - 100.0% 13,359 13,359 13,359

2008 / 1 23,651 15,025 0 15,026 15,026 - 100.0% 15,026 15,026 15,026

2008 / 2 24,057 16,563 3 16,566 16,566 - 100.0% 16,566 16,566 16,566

2009 / 1 21,739 14,465 17 14,483 14,483 - 100.0% 14,483 14,483 14,483

2009 / 2 18,529 15,991 74 16,066 18,900 16,066 - 100.0% 16,066 - 100.0% 16,066 16,066 102.0% 86.7% 86.7% 86.7% 86.7% 16,066 86.7%

2010 / 1 18,901 16,602 16 16,618 19,090 16,618 - 100.0% 16,618 - 100.0% 16,618 16,618 101.0% 87.9% 87.9% 87.9% 87.9% 16,618 87.9%

2010 / 2 19,780 18,583 12 18,595 20,571 18,595 - 100.0% 18,595 - 100.0% 18,595 18,595 104.0% 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% 94.0% 18,595 94.0%

2011 / 1 17,585 15,889 5 15,894 17,937 15,894 - 100.0% 15,894 - 100.0% 15,894 15,894 102.0% 90.4% 90.4% 90.4% 90.4% 15,894 90.4%

2011 / 2 16,595 16,783 15 16,798 18,587 16,798 - 100.0% 16,798 12.5% 87.5% 17,021 16,798 112.0% 101.2% 101.2% 102.6% 101.2% 16,798 101.2%

2012 / 1 17,011 15,015 43 15,058 18,712 15,058 - 100.0% 15,058 25.0% 75.0% 15,971 15,058 110.0% 88.5% 88.5% 93.9% 88.5% 15,058 88.5%

2012 / 2 16,900 17,308 33 17,341 19,942 17,341 - 100.0% 17,341 37.5% 62.5% 18,317 17,341 118.0% 102.6% 102.6% 108.4% 102.6% 17,341 102.6%

2013 / 1 16,388 17,038 106 17,144 18,847 17,137 - 100.0% 17,137 50.0% 50.0% 17,992 17,144 115.0% 104.6% 104.6% 109.8% 104.6% 17,137 104.6%

2013 / 2 16,456 19,643 63 19,706 19,912 19,693 (0.1%) 100.1% 19,692 62.5% 37.5% 19,830 19,706 121.0% 119.7% 119.7% 120.5% 119.8% 19,692 119.7%

2014 / 1 15,499 19,537 127 19,664 18,134 19,636 (0.1%) 100.1% 19,638 75.0% 25.0% 18,510 19,664 117.0% 126.7% 126.7% 119.4% 126.9% 19,639 126.7%

2014 / 2 15,874 20,066 279 20,345 19,843 20,316 (0.1%) 100.1% 20,317 87.5% 12.5% 19,902 20,345 125.0% 128.0% 128.0% 125.4% 128.2% 20,317 128.0%

2015 / 1 16,254 20,635 686 21,321 19,504 21,683 1.7% 98.3% 21,646 100.0% - 19,504 21,321 120.0% 133.4% 133.2% 120.0% 131.2% 21,647 133.2%

2015 / 2 8,026 5,876 3,619 9,495 19,935 19,661 51.7% 48.3% 19,803 - - - 9,495 127.0% 125.3% 126.2% - 10,193 127.0%

Total 855,378 570,119 5,109 575,227 249,914 585,678 234,602 565,402 575,227 576,177




Exhibit B.4.4.4b-2





Coverage: Collision (w All Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 16,502 - - 16,502 - - -
































2009 / 2 2,834 - - - - Link Ratio Method - 16,066 86.7% 1,354 - - Link Ratio Method - 16,063 86.7% 3 - 3 -

2010 / 1 2,473 - - - - Link Ratio Method - 16,618 87.9% 962 - - Link Ratio Method - 16,616 87.9% 2 - 2 -

2010 / 2 1,976 - - - - Link Ratio Method - 18,595 94.0% 405 - - Link Ratio Method - 18,584 94.0% 11 - 11 -

2011 / 1 2,043 - - - - Link Ratio Method - 15,894 90.4% 798 - - Link Ratio Method - 15,908 90.5% (14) - (14) (0.1%)

2011 / 2 1,789 - - 224 - Link Ratio Method - 16,798 101.2% 458 - - Link Ratio Method - 16,802 101.2% (4) - (4) -

2012 / 1 3,655 - - 914 - Link Ratio Method - 15,058 88.5% 2,290 - - Link Ratio Method - 15,061 88.5% (4) - (4) -

2012 / 2 2,601 - - 975 - Link Ratio Method - 17,341 102.6% 1,079 - - Link Ratio Method - 17,342 102.6% (1) - (1) -

2013 / 1 1,702 (7) (8) 848 - Link Ratio Method (7) 17,137 104.6% 227 (7) (7) Link Ratio Method (7) 17,137 104.6% - - - -

2013 / 2 206 (14) (14) 123 - BF Method (14) 19,692 119.7% (1,274) (16) (15) BF Method (15) 19,690 119.6% 1 1 2 0.1%

2014 / 1 (1,530) (28) (25) (1,154) - BF Method (25) 19,639 126.7% (2,946) (31) (27) BF Method (27) 19,659 126.8% (22) 2 (20) (0.1%)

2014 / 2 (502) (28) (28) (443) - BF Method (28) 20,317 128.0% (1,808) (18) (17) BF Method (17) 20,212 127.3% 116 (11) 105 0.7%

2015 / 1 (1,816) 362 326 (1,816) - BF Method 326 21,647 133.2% (3,252) 761 623 623 21,952 134.8% (8) (297) (305) (1.6%)

2015 / 2 - - - - - - 698 10,193 127.0% - - - - - - - 9,495 698 10,193 127.0%

Total 15,430 285 251 (330) - 950 576,177 (1,706) 688 557 557 566,212 9,573 393 9,966

2015 / 1 & Prior 15,430 285 251 (330) - 252 565,984 (1,706) 688 557 557 566,212 78 (305) (227)




Exhibit B.4.4.4c-1





Coverage: Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s


Accident YearEarned

Premium

Paid Claims

to Date

Case

Reserves

Reported to

DateELR Method*

Link Ratio

Method

Implied BF

ELR

Method

weight*

Implied BF

Link Ratio

Method

weight*

BF Method*

ELR

Method

weight

Link Ratio

Method

weight

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

User Defined

1

User Defined

2

ELR

Method

Ult LR*

Link Ratio

Method

Ult LR

BF

Method

Ult LR*

ELR & LR

Wtd

Method

Ult LR*

Incurred

(Zero

IBNR) Ult

LR

User

Defined 1

Ult LR

User

Defined 2

Ult LR

Selected

Ultimate

Claims

Amount

Selected

Ultimate

Loss

Ratio*

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]=([5]/[1]) =([6]/[1]) =([9]/[1]) =([12]/[1]) =([13]/[1]) =([14]/[1]) =([15]/[1]) =([23]/[1])

Prior to 1994 - 14,401 - 14,401 14,401 14,401 14,401 14,401

1994 / 1 - 12,330 0 12,331 12,331 - 100.0% 12,331 12,331 12,331

1994 / 2 - 13,383 0 13,383 13,383 - 100.0% 13,383 13,383 13,383

1995 / 1 - 12,374 0 12,374 12,374 - 100.0% 12,374 12,374 12,374

1995 / 2 - 13,089 0 13,089 13,089 - 100.0% 13,089 13,089 13,089

1996 / 1 - 10,445 (0) 10,445 10,445 - 100.0% 10,445 10,445 10,445

1996 / 2 - 9,514 (0) 9,513 9,513 - 100.0% 9,513 9,513 9,513

1997 / 1 - 6,574 (0) 6,574 6,574 - 100.0% 6,574 6,574 6,574

1997 / 2 - 6,638 4 6,642 6,642 - 100.0% 6,642 6,642 6,642

1998 / 1 - 4,994 3 4,997 4,997 - 100.0% 4,997 4,997 4,997

1998 / 2 - 3,949 1 3,951 3,951 - 100.0% 3,951 3,951 3,951

1999 / 1 - 2,668 0 2,669 2,669 - 100.0% 2,669 2,669 2,669

1999 / 2 - 3,004 (0) 3,004 3,004 - 100.0% 3,004 3,004 3,004

2000 / 1 - 2,984 (0) 2,984 2,984 - 100.0% 2,984 2,984 2,984

2000 / 2 - 3,379 (0) 3,379 3,379 - 100.0% 3,379 3,379 3,379

2001 / 1 - 3,241 (0) 3,241 3,241 - 100.0% 3,241 3,241 3,241

2001 / 2 - 3,823 (0) 3,823 3,823 - 100.0% 3,823 3,823 3,823

2002 / 1 - 4,141 (0) 4,141 4,141 - 100.0% 4,141 4,141 4,141

2002 / 2 0 4,229 0 4,229 4,229 - 100.0% 4,229 4,229 4,229

2003 / 1 0 3,601 0 3,601 3,601 - 100.0% 3,601 3,601 3,601

2003 / 2 - 4,774 0 4,774 4,774 - 100.0% 4,774 4,774 4,774

2004 / 1 - 3,232 0 3,232 3,232 - 100.0% 3,232 3,232 3,232

2004 / 2 (0) 3,339 0 3,339 3,339 - 100.0% 3,339 3,339 3,339

2005 / 1 (0) 2,544 0 2,544 2,544 - 100.0% 2,544 2,544 2,544

2005 / 2 (0) 3,507 - 3,507 3,507 - 100.0% 3,507 3,507 3,507

2006 / 1 (0) 2,560 (0) 2,560 2,560 - 100.0% 2,560 2,560 2,560

2006 / 2 (4) 4,376 0 4,376 4,376 - 100.0% 4,376 4,376 4,376

2007 / 1 (20) 3,380 1 3,380 3,380 - 100.0% 3,380 3,380 3,380

2007 / 2 (28) 4,131 0 4,131 4,131 - 100.0% 4,131 4,131 4,131

2008 / 1 (16) 5,380 0 5,380 5,380 - 100.0% 5,380 5,380 5,380

2008 / 2 47 4,826 0 4,826 4,826 - 100.0% 4,826 4,826 4,826

2009 / 1 1,605 4,710 0 4,710 4,710 - 100.0% 4,710 4,710 4,710

2009 / 2 4,415 4,980 30 5,010 4,239 5,010 - 100.0% 5,010 - 100.0% 5,010 5,010 96.0% 113.5% 113.5% 113.5% 113.5% 5,010 113.5%

2010 / 1 5,675 4,360 23 4,384 4,483 4,384 - 100.0% 4,384 - 100.0% 4,384 4,384 79.0% 77.2% 77.2% 77.2% 77.2% 4,384 77.2%

2010 / 2 5,863 5,009 3 5,012 5,335 5,012 - 100.0% 5,012 - 100.0% 5,012 5,012 91.0% 85.5% 85.5% 85.5% 85.5% 5,012 85.5%

2011 / 1 5,061 4,549 1 4,549 4,201 4,549 - 100.0% 4,549 - 100.0% 4,549 4,549 83.0% 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% 89.9% 4,549 89.9%

2011 / 2 4,783 4,081 10 4,091 4,592 4,091 - 100.0% 4,091 12.5% 87.5% 4,154 4,091 96.0% 85.5% 85.5% 86.8% 85.5% 4,091 85.5%

2012 / 1 4,808 3,949 0 3,949 4,279 3,949 - 100.0% 3,949 25.0% 75.0% 4,032 3,949 89.0% 82.1% 82.1% 83.9% 82.1% 3,949 82.1%

2012 / 2 4,733 4,724 50 4,774 4,780 4,774 - 100.0% 4,774 37.5% 62.5% 4,776 4,774 101.0% 100.9% 100.9% 100.9% 100.9% 4,774 100.9%

2013 / 1 4,687 3,842 33 3,875 4,312 3,876 - 100.0% 3,877 50.0% 50.0% 4,094 3,875 92.0% 82.7% 82.7% 87.4% 82.7% 3,877 82.7%

2013 / 2 4,560 5,768 10 5,778 4,651 5,796 0.3% 99.7% 5,793 62.5% 37.5% 5,081 5,778 102.0% 127.1% 127.0% 111.4% 126.7% 5,796 127.1%

2014 / 1 4,180 3,895 22 3,917 3,887 3,945 0.7% 99.3% 3,945 75.0% 25.0% 3,902 3,917 93.0% 94.4% 94.4% 93.3% 93.7% 3,945 94.4%

2014 / 2 4,193 4,724 72 4,796 4,444 4,842 1.0% 99.0% 4,838 87.5% 12.5% 4,494 4,796 106.0% 115.5% 115.4% 107.2% 114.4% 4,839 115.4%

2015 / 1 4,168 3,311 157 3,468 4,001 3,655 5.1% 94.9% 3,673 100.0% - 4,001 3,468 96.0% 87.7% 88.1% 96.0% 83.2% 3,674 88.1%

2015 / 2 2,040 1,292 592 1,884 4,309 4,151 54.6% 45.4% 4,237 - - - 1,884 108.0% 104.1% 106.2% - 2,203 108.0%

Total 60,749 240,005 1,012 241,017 57,514 243,568 58,133 239,020 241,017 241,633




Exhibit B.4.4.4c-2





Coverage: Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

RSP: Ontario

Amounts in: $1,000s



IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method

IBNR*

ELR & LR

Wtd Method

IBNR

Incurred

(Zero IBNR)

IBNR

User Defined

1 IBNR

User Defined


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

ELR Method

IBNR*

Link Ratio

Method IBNR

BF Method


Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*

Incurred to

Date

Selected

IBNR

Selected

Ultimate

Selected

Ultimate

LR*[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

=([9]-[16]) =([10]-[17]) =([11]-[18])

Prior to 1994 - - - - 14,401 - - 14,401 - - -
































2009 / 2 (771) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 5,010 113.5% (679) - - Link Ratio Method - 5,006 113.4% 4 - 4 0.1%

2010 / 1 100 - - - - Link Ratio Method - 4,384 77.2% 156 - - Link Ratio Method - 4,384 77.2% - - - -

2010 / 2 323 - - - - Link Ratio Method - 5,012 85.5% 381 - - Link Ratio Method - 5,012 85.5% - - - -

2011 / 1 (349) - - - - Link Ratio Method - 4,549 89.9% (290) - - Link Ratio Method - 4,541 89.7% 8 - 8 0.2%

2011 / 2 501 - - 63 - Link Ratio Method - 4,091 85.5% 548 - - Link Ratio Method - 4,091 85.5% - - - -

2012 / 1 330 - - 82 - Link Ratio Method - 3,949 82.1% 376 - - Link Ratio Method - 3,951 82.2% (2) - (2) (0.1%)

2012 / 2 7 - - 2 - Link Ratio Method - 4,774 100.9% 101 - - Link Ratio Method - 4,774 100.9% - - - -

2013 / 1 438 2 2 220 - Link Ratio Method 2 3,877 82.7% 532 4 5 Link Ratio Method 4 3,878 82.7% - (2) (2) -

2013 / 2 (1,127) 18 15 (697) - Link Ratio Method 18 5,796 127.1% (1,023) 31 25 Link Ratio Method 31 5,797 127.1% 12 (13) (1) -

2014 / 1 (30) 28 28 (15) - Link Ratio Method 28 3,945 94.4% 6 35 35 Link Ratio Method 35 3,958 94.7% (6) (7) (13) (0.3%)

2014 / 2 (351) 47 43 (302) - BF Method 43 4,839 115.4% (283) 51 47 BF Method 47 4,861 115.9% (18) (4) (22) (0.5%)

2015 / 1 533 188 206 533 - BF Method 206 3,674 88.1% 896 326 379 896 4,092 98.0% 272 (690) (418) (9.9%)

2015 / 2 - - - - - - 319 2,203 108.0% - - - - - - - 1,884 319 2,203 108.0%

Total (398) 283 293 (113) - 616 241,633 722 448 491 1,013 239,876 2,154 (397) 1,757

2015 / 1 & Prior (398) 283 293 (113) - 297 239,430 722 448 491 1,013 239,876 270 (716) (446)





Ontario RSP

OntarioRSP

ExhibitC

InterestRateSensitivity

Exhibit C

page 1 of 1

Facility AssociationSummary of Interest Rate Sensitivity

$ Format: $000s

RSP OntarioActuarial Present Value of Provisions at Various Discount Rates ‐ Dec. 31, 2015 projected Unpaid

AY 0.48% 0.98% 1.19% 1.48% 1.98% 2.48% 2.98% 3.48%

2001 &

prior 17,694 17,455 17,357 17,221 16,995 16,776 16,557 16,348

2002 2,312 2,249 2,223 2,188 2,130 2,074 2,021 1,969

2003 2,218 2,153 2,127 2,091 2,032 1,975 1,920 1,869

2004 3,196 3,094 3,054 2,998 2,906 2,818 2,734 2,654

2005 3,108 3,009 2,969 2,915 2,825 2,740 2,659 2,582

2006 9,784 9,511 9,402 9,254 9,010 8,778 8,559 8,350

2007 9,716 9,479 9,383 9,254 9,041 8,839 8,647 8,465

2008 23,590 23,069 22,861 22,578 22,109 21,666 21,244 20,842

2009 41,984 41,048 40,670 40,160 39,317 38,519 37,754 37,029

2010 76,323 74,543 73,827 72,851 71,248 69,729 68,280 66,898

2011 68,992 67,698 67,171 66,465 65,297 64,182 63,117 62,107

2012 114,792 112,998 112,260 111,282 109,642 108,084 106,579 105,149

2013 164,599 162,139 161,135 159,775 157,483 155,299 153,203 151,181

2014 222,360 218,710 217,249 215,231 211,853 208,629 205,494 202,501

2015 258,336 253,686 251,814 249,289 245,019 240,899 236,933 233,142

Total 1,019,004 1,000,841 993,502 983,552 966,907 951,007 935,701 921,086

valuation prior val

assumption assumption

Dollar Impact Relative to Valuation Assumption

AY 0.48% 0.98% 1.19% 1.48% 1.98% 2.48% 2.98% 3.48%

Total 18,163 ‐ (7,339) (17,289) (33,934) (49,834) (65,140) (79,755)

valuation prior val


Percentage Impact Relative to Valuation Assumption

AY 0.48% 0.98% 1.19% 1.48% 1.98% 2.48% 2.98% 3.48%

2001 &

prior 1.4% ‐ (0.6%) (1.3%) (2.6%) (3.9%) (5.1%) (6.3%)

2002 2.8% ‐ (1.2%) (2.7%) (5.3%) (7.8%) (10.1%) (12.4%)

2003 3.0% ‐ (1.2%) (2.9%) (5.6%) (8.3%) (10.8%) (13.2%)

2004 3.3% ‐ (1.3%) (3.1%) (6.1%) (8.9%) (11.6%) (14.2%)

2005 3.3% ‐ (1.3%) (3.1%) (6.1%) (8.9%) (11.6%) (14.2%)

2006 2.9% ‐ (1.1%) (2.7%) (5.3%) (7.7%) (10.0%) (12.2%)

2007 2.5% ‐ (1.0%) (2.4%) (4.6%) (6.8%) (8.8%) (10.7%)

2008 2.3% ‐ (0.9%) (2.1%) (4.2%) (6.1%) (7.9%) (9.7%)

2009 2.3% ‐ (0.9%) (2.2%) (4.2%) (6.2%) (8.0%) (9.8%)

2010 2.4% ‐ (1.0%) (2.3%) (4.4%) (6.5%) (8.4%) (10.3%)

2011 1.9% ‐ (0.8%) (1.8%) (3.5%) (5.2%) (6.8%) (8.3%)

2012 1.6% ‐ (0.7%) (1.5%) (3.0%) (4.3%) (5.7%) (6.9%)

2013 1.5% ‐ (0.6%) (1.5%) (2.9%) (4.2%) (5.5%) (6.8%)

2014 1.7% ‐ (0.7%) (1.6%) (3.1%) (4.6%) (6.0%) (7.4%)

2015 1.8% ‐ (0.7%) (1.7%) (3.4%) (5.0%) (6.6%) (8.1%)

Total 1.8% ‐ (0.7%) (1.7%) (3.4%) (5.0%) (6.5%) (8.0%)

valuation prior val


file: 01a RSP ON pd emerge & apv 2015 Q3 v01 (c‐curr dsct curr mfad).xlsmFA Actuarial printed: 2:41 PM, 12/10/2015


Ontario RSP

OntarioRSP

ExhibitD

ClaimsDevelopmentMargins

Exhibit D

Claims MfADs

page 1 of 1

Facility AssociationMargins Table (by coverage)

$ Format: $000s

RSP OntarioCurrent Valuation as at Sep. 30, 2015

Selected Margins for Adverse Development

Accident Half Year

Bodily InjuryProperty Damage

Direct Comp Property Damage

Third Party Liability

AccBen (indivis)Uninsured Automobile

Accident Benefits

Underinsured Motorist

Collision (w All Perils)

Comprehensive (w Spec Perils)

Other Coverages Total

1993 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1993 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1994 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1994 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1995 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1995 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1996 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1996 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1997 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 9.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1997 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1998 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1998 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1999 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1999 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2000 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2000 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 7.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2001 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2001 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2002 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 8.6% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2002 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 8.6% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2003 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2003 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2004 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2004 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2005 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2005 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2006 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2006 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2007 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2007 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0%

2008 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0%

2008 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 9.8% 10.0%

2009 / 1 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 9.6% 10.0%

2009 / 2 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.4% 10.0%

2010 / 1 12.5% 10.0% 5.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 5.0% 5.0% 11.6% 12.5%

2010 / 2 12.5% 10.0% 5.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 5.0% 5.0% 12.1% 12.5%

2011 / 1 12.5% 10.0% 5.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 5.0% 5.0% 12.5% 12.5%

2011 / 2 12.5% 10.0% 5.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 5.0% 5.0% 11.7% 12.5%

2012 / 1 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.6% 15.0%

2012 / 2 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 5.0% 5.0% 12.6% 15.0%

2013 / 1 17.5% 10.0% 5.0% 17.4% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 5.0% 5.0% 15.4% 17.4%

2013 / 2 17.5% 10.0% 5.0% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 5.0% 5.0% 16.7% 17.5%

2014 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 17.8% 20.0%

2014 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.6% 19.9%

2015 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 19.8% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 12.8% 19.8%

2015 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 18.9% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.8% 18.8%

2016 / 1 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0%

2016 / 2 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0%

prem liab 20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 15.7% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.4% 15.6%

discount rate: 0.98%

margin (basis points): 25

File: 01a RSP ON pd emerge & apv 2015 Q3 v01 (c‐curr dsct curr mfad).xlsmFA Actuarial Printed: 12/10/2015, 2:51 PM

ontario rsp exhibit a summary of valuation selection ... · summary of valuation selection changes...

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