Ontario’s Opportunities in a Changing Climate

Third Age Learning – York Region Aurora Cultural Centre

September 28, 2015

Ellen Schwartzel Environmental Commissioner (Acting)

1

Ontario’s Environmental Bill of Rights:

Tools to help you:

Have your say on environmental decisions

Ask for new environmental laws, policies

Ask for enforcement of environmental rules

Request appeals of approvals

Connect with the Environmental Commissioner 3

Having Your Say: The Environmental Registry

A searchable on-line database of government proposals and decisions that affect the environment

Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change

4

The Environmental Registry

Shows you what ministries are working on

Lets you comment before decisions are made

Shows you the comments of other people

Shows you how the ministry considered public comments

The Environmental Registry

6

Ontario’s Climate Change Strategy

45-day comment period

Comment until March 29, 2015

Registry #012-3452

Your Chance to Comment On:

7

Moving Ontario Forward Outside the

Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

45-day comment period

Comment by August 8, 2015

Registry #012-4354

Your Chance to Comment On:

8

Intercity Bus Services in Ontario

60-day comment period

Comment by September 25, 2015

Registry #012-4351

Your Chance to Comment On:

9

Conserving Ontario’s Wetlands

95-day comment period

Comment by October 30, 2015

Registry #012-4464

Your Chance to Comment On:

10

Environmental Commissioner of Ontario

Impartial

Officer of the Legislature

environmental watchdog

Since 1994

11

The ECO’s Expanded Mandate

Annual reports on: [the Green Energy and Green Economy Act, 2009]

greenhouse gas

emissions energy conservation

ECO’s Greenhouse Gas Report 2015

13

The science is clear - land and ocean surface temperatures

are rising as predicted

14

15

16

Ontario’s climate is changing too:

Ontario’s average temperature increases have outpaced the global average (1900-2012 time-span)

Feeling the Heat: GHG Progress Report 2015: p. 37

17

Ontario’s climate is changing too: Number of frost-free days in Ontario increased by 18 days between 1979 and

2009.

18 days

over 30 years

Feeling the Heat: GHG Progress Report 2015: p. 37

18

Ontario’s climate is changing too:

Lyme Disease: reported cases have gone up four-fold in four years.

144 2009

to 682 2013

Feeling the Heat: GHG Progress Report 2015: p. 9

19

Ontario’s climate is changing too:

Lyme Disease: reported cases have gone up four-fold in four years.

144 2009

to 682 2013

Feeling the Heat: GHG Progress Report 2015: p. 9

20

Ontario’s climate is changing too:

Expect more hot days:

Toronto and Windsor can expect double the current average number of over 30 degrees C, by 2050

Feeling the Heat: GHG Progress Report 2015: p. 9

21

Cutting Greenhouse Gases;

“Mitigation”;

How is Ontario doing?

22

Ontario set targets in 2007 to cut Greenhouse Gas Emissions

6% below 1990 by 2014 (to 166 Mt)

15% below 1990 by 2020 (to 150 Mt)

80% below 1990 by 2050 (to 35 Mt)

23

Ontario’s targets not arbitrary;

International goals

Assume we can keep within 2 degrees of

warming

Assume planet can cope with 2 degrees

of warming

24

Ontario’s Target for 2050: our challenge!

25

Ontario’s Greenhouse Gases

Where do they come from?

26

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

27

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

28

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

29

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

30

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

31

Ontario’s Emissions Profile

32

Ontario’s Targets

2014

2020 ?

33

34

35

GDP up; GHGs down

36

Cutting Greenhouse Gases; Ontario has options!

British Columbia:

carbon tax since 2008; ~7 cents/litre of gas

Quebec:

Cap and trade system for carbon credits

Ontario:

Cap and trade announced April 13, 2015

37

Ontario Action on Climate Change:

Cap and trade announced April 13, 2015

Climate Summit of the Americas July 7-9

Climate Change Strategy promised for 2015

38

Cutting Greenhouse Gases; Ontario has options!

-a price on carbon

-use our low-carbon electricity for electric vehicles

39

Cutting Greenhouse Gases; Ontario has options!

compact urban development

40

Cutting Greenhouse Gases; Ontario has options!

compact urban development

41

Cutting Greenhouse Gases; Ontario has options!

-a price on carbon

-use our low-carbon electricity for electric vehicles

-compact urban development

-strengthen the Ontario Building Code

-incentives to retrofit existing buildings

-build up carbon in farm soils

42

Cutting Greenhouse Gases; Ontario has options!

-support the work of communities on energy

conservation

43

Climate Change:

Four Big Ideas

The Science is Clear

Unburnable Carbon

Insurance Risks are changing

Priorities have evolved

44

Climate Change Four Big Ideas

Unburnable Carbon

45

46

Climate Change Four Big Ideas

Insurance risks are

changing; Adaptation is a challenge

47

Four Big Ideas

48

Climate Change

Insurance risks are changing:

Finch Ave. wash-out:

August 19, 2005 storm

100-year storm: ~175mm rain in under one hour

Insured losses: $500 million

49

Climate Change

50

Climate Change

Insurance risks are changing:

Don Valley flooded:

July 8, 2013 storm

~126mm rain in ~ two hours

Insured losses: $940 million

51

52

53

Climate Change Four Big Ideas

Priorities have

evolved

54

Climate Change Four Big Ideas

Priorities have

evolved: Should we mitigate?

Should we adapt?

55

Climate Change Four Big Ideas

We need to do both:

mitigate AND….. adapt.

56

Ontario has options and natural advantages:

-highly educated and diverse

populace

-natural capital and climate

resilience

57

Ontario has options and natural advantages:

-highly educated and diverse populace

-natural capital and climate resilience

- motivated, resourceful grass-roots

communities

58

Thank you!

Ellen Schwartzel, Commissioner (Acting)

59