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Discussion Question Answers

Question 3: Identify the 3 forecasting time horizons. State anapproximate duration for each.

Answer: Identifying the 3 forecasting time horizons. And approximateduration for each.

1. Short range : 3 months - 1 year2. Medium range: 3 months - 3 years3. Long range : 3 years

Question 9: esearch and !rie"y descri!e the #e$phi techni%ue. &o' 'ou$dit !e used !y an emp$oyer you ha(e 'or)ed for*

Answer: 

+o$$a!orati(e estimating or forecasting techni%ue that com!ines independentana$ysis 'ith maximum use of feed!ac) for !ui$ding consensus amongexperts 'ho interact anonymous$y. ,he topic under discussion is circu$atedin a series of rounds among participating experts 'ho comment on it andmodify the opinions reached up to that point and so on unti$ some degreeof mutua$ agreement is reached. A$so ca$$ed #e$phi forecasting.

/rie"y description of #e$phi techni%ue and ho' 'ou$d it use !y an emp$oyer I

ha(e 'or)ed.

a Assem!$ing a group of experts in such a manner as to prec$ude directcommunication !et'een identia!$e mem!ers of the group

! Assem!$ing the responses of each expert to the %uestions or pro!$ems

of interest

c Summarizing these responses

d ro(iding each expert 'ith the summary of a$$ responses

e As)ing each expert to study the summary of the responses and

respond again to the %uestions or pro!$ems of interest.

f epeating steps ! through e se(era$ times as necessary to o!tain

con(ergence in responses. If con(ergence has not !een o!tained !y

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the end of the fourth cyc$e the responses at that time shou$d pro!a!$y

!e accepted and the process terminated4$itt$e additiona$ con(ergence

is $i)e$y if the process is continued.