opatija tanker chartering report october 2008. tanker market volatile 2005-20072007-2008 bdti- 60%+...
TRANSCRIPT
OpatijaOpatija
TankerTanker CharteringChartering ReportReport
OctoberOctober 20082008
Tanker Market Tanker Market VolatileVolatile
2005-20072005-2007 2007-2007-20082008
BDTIBDTI - 60%- 60% + 70%+ 70%
BCTIBCTI - 61%- 61% + 82%+ 82%
BalticBaltic DirtyDirty TankerTanker IndexIndexJanuaryJanuary 2005-October2005-October 20082008
BalticBaltic CleanClean TankerTanker IndexIndex JanuaryJanuary 2005-October2005-October 20082008
TankerTanker CharteringChartering ReportReport
Bunker Prices in RotterdamBunker Prices in Rotterdam
Rose from $390 to $557 per tonneRose from $390 to $557 per tonne
Plus 45.5%Plus 45.5%
Peaking @ $729.50 July ’08Peaking @ $729.50 July ’08
Now $357Now $357
Tanker Chartering ReportTanker Chartering Report
• Global Oil Demand up 1.3% yoyGlobal Oil Demand up 1.3% yoy
• Actual +0.97 (1.5m) b/d 2007Actual +0.97 (1.5m) b/d 2007
+0.43 (2.2m) b/d 2008 +0.43 (2.2m) b/d 2008
• Oil Price $90/bbl 2009Oil Price $90/bbl 2009
• Now $72Now $72
TankerTanker Chartering ReportChartering Report
Low level of oil stocks – worldwideLow level of oil stocks – worldwide
Heavy refinery maintenanceHeavy refinery maintenance
High USA demand after hurricane High USA demand after hurricane damage damage
Increased OPEC output/oil on waterIncreased OPEC output/oil on water
Japan + China restockingJapan + China restocking
Hebei Spirit – December 9 2007Hebei Spirit – December 9 2007
Tanker Chartering ReportTanker Chartering Report
• China + 4.6% yoy driven byChina + 4.6% yoy driven by
Car ownership + 1,000 cars per dayCar ownership + 1,000 cars per day
air travelair travel
constructionconstruction
agricultureagriculture
petrochemicalspetrochemicals
oil stocksoil stocks
Tanker Chartering ReportTanker Chartering Report
Oil Demand (2007)Oil Demand (2007)
IndiaIndia +5.0%+5.0%
North AmericaNorth America +0.47%+0.47%
EuropeEurope -2.2% -2.2%
Tanker Chartering ReportTanker Chartering Report
• Clean Tanker TradesClean Tanker Trades
Directionless despiteDirectionless despite
Refinery problems in the Atlantic basin.Refinery problems in the Atlantic basin.
More exports from EuropeMore exports from Europe
Congestion problems in discharge areasCongestion problems in discharge areas
India increasingly a supplier to Europe India increasingly a supplier to Europe and Asiaand Asia
Tanker Chartering ReportTanker Chartering Report
• Growth of tanker fleet 2.7% dwt in Growth of tanker fleet 2.7% dwt in first first
9 months of 2008 (net)9 months of 2008 (net)
• 66 single hull tankers gone for 66 single hull tankers gone for conversion to Storage, FPSO or VLOCsconversion to Storage, FPSO or VLOCs
• Double Hull Fleet = 76% of existing Double Hull Fleet = 76% of existing fleetfleet
Tanker Chartering ReportTanker Chartering Report
• VLCC average earnings:VLCC average earnings:– 20062006$60,289$60,289– 20072007$54,979$54,979– 20082008$100,500 (to date)$100,500 (to date)– 3 Oct3 Oct $85,693$85,693
Tanker Chartering ReportTanker Chartering Report
•Future influences (Short Term):Future influences (Short Term):
Alternative Alternative
Suppliers & pipelinesSuppliers & pipelines
Fuel/coal/gasFuel/coal/gas
Response to “green” legislationResponse to “green” legislation
Tanker Chartering ReportTanker Chartering Report
•Future influences (long term):Future influences (long term):•15 years/+ end of production 15 years/+ end of production
from the largest fields found in from the largest fields found in last 40 yrs:last 40 yrs:
North Sea/Alaska/SakhalinNorth Sea/Alaska/SakhalinNew deep water finds:New deep water finds:
Brazil/Gulf of MexicoBrazil/Gulf of Mexico
Tanker Chartering ReportTanker Chartering Report
•Future influences (Long Term):Future influences (Long Term):
Current finds are smaller capacity Current finds are smaller capacity – indicating maintenance of high – indicating maintenance of high oil price oil price = $ ???= $ ???
or no return to low oil priceor no return to low oil price
= $ 20 = $ 20
Tanker MarketTanker Market
LookoutLookout
For theFor the
Hurricane!Hurricane!