open heat vulnerability mapper · bev wilson and arnab chakraborty department of urban &...

Open Heat Vulnerability Mapperhttps://ohvm.shinyapps.io/ohvm-prototype

Bev Wilson and Arnab Chakraborty Department of Urban & Regional PlanningUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Coastal GeoTools Workshop and ExpositionFebruary 8, 2017

Source: Chicago Tribune

Motivation• Heat waves are becoming more common and more deadly

(Habeeb et al., 2015)– The urban heat island effect (Oke, 1973)– Global climate change (IPCC, 2014)

Source: NASA

Source: Wilhelmi, O. V., & Hayden, M. H. (2010). Connecting people and place: a new framework for reducing urban vulnerability to extreme heat. Environmental Research Letters, 5(1), 14-21.

Conceptual Framing

Q1: How has the spatial distribution of vulnerability to extreme changed over time in the Chicago area? What factors are expected to determine that spatial distribution in the future?

Q2: How much does vulnerability to extreme heat vary at scales below the region and municipality?

Q3: Are the most vulnerable areas of the region and city also the warmest? What about in the future?

Central Questions

• Chicago metropolitan area– Cook, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake,

McHenry, Will counties in Illinois– Population of 8.48 million in

the region and 2.71 million in the city proper (ACS 2010-2014)

Study Area

Summer heat related deaths in the Chicago region, 1996-2016

Source: NOAA, National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database

• Chicago is getting hotter…

Climate Trends

Source: Chicago Climate Action Plan

Tool Development• Open source, web application

– Built in R using leaflet and shiny packages– Where does vulnerability (higher sensitivity + lower adaptive

capacity) intersect with exposure to extreme heat?– Support longitudinal visualization and analysis

• Historical patterns• Future conditions using downscaled climate model projections and

scenario analysis

https://ohvm.shinyapps.io/ohvm-prototype

Landsat 8

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) weather stations in the Chicago area with data records back to 1995

"Potential applications of AoT data include measurements of micro-climate in different areas of the city, so that residents can get up-to-date, high-resolution "block-by-block" weather and climate information."(Array of Things, 2016)

• Geolytics Neighborhood Change Database 1970-2010– Consistent variables over three Census years (1990, 2000, 2010)– Consistent tract geographies (2010 boundaries)

• Input variables from the literature– Reid, C. E., O’Neill, M. S., Brines, S. J., Gronlund, C., Diez-Roux, A. V.,

Brown, D. G., & Schwartz, J. (2008). Mapping community determinants of heat vulnerability. Environmental Health Perspectives, 117(11), 1730-1736. [U.S. Metro Areas → tracts]

– Johnson, D. P., Stanforth, A., Lulla, V., & Luber, G. (2012). Developing an applied extreme heat vulnerability index utilizing socioeconomic and environmental data. Applied Geography, 35(1), 23-31. [City of Chicago → block groups]

– Weber, S., Sadoff, N., Zell, E., & de Sherninin, A. (2015). Policy-relevant indicators for mapping the vulnerability of urban populations to extreme heat events: A case study of Philadelphia. Applied Geography, 63, 231-243. [City of Philadelphia → block groups]

HVI Data Sources

Input VariablesProportion of persons aged 25+ without H.S. diploma

Mean household income

Female-headed households Proportion of occupied housing units with no car

Poverty rate Proportion elderly populationProportion of persons under age of 18 Proportion of population living in group

quartersProportion of population in nursing homes or homes for the aged and dependent

Proportion renter households

Proportion substandard housing units Proportion of occupied housing units comprised by mobile homes

Proportion population identifying as Black or African-American only

Proportion population identifying as Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Pacific Islander only

Proportion of population identifying as some other race only

Proportion population identifying as Hispanic

• Maximum likelihood factor analysis (Gorsuch, 1983)– Data reduction technique and multivariate approach used to

study latent or underlying variables– Reduce input variables to a smaller set of artificial variables

or “factors” that capture most of variation in the overall data

• Generate correlation matrix, partition variance into common and unique components, extract initial solution, rotate and interpret, derive factor scores

Methods

• Factor scores were normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation of 1 (i.e., z-scores)

• Coding scheme from Reid et al. (2009) and Johnson et al. (2012)– Minimize impact of outliers– Comparability across time periods– Deviations from the mean takes into account warming trend

Methods

Regional Heat Vulnerability Index: 1990

Regional Vulnerability Clusters: 1990

HVI Takeaways• Regionally, heat vulnerability has decentralized

– Higher index values in and adjacent to city in 1990– Near West Side; Englewood; Harvey, IL; Waukegan, IL;

Joliet, Aurora, and Elgin further out by 2000– Schaumburg and areas of Will County by 2010

• Plausible drivers of this phenomenon– Suburbanization of poverty (Kneebone & Berube, 2013)– Foreclosure crisis and recession (by 2010)

• Similar patterns over time within the city proper– Suburbanization of poverty, but also gentrification pressures – Displacement in areas like the Gold Coast, Little Village

(UIC), Washington Park and Woodlawn (Univ. of Chicago)

• Urban planners and climate action plans need to pay more attention to extreme heat events (Oke, 2006)– Land use and the built environment (Stone Jr. & Rodgers,

2001; Coseo & Larsen, 2014)– Patterns of social vulnerability (Klinenberg, 2015; Reid et al.,

2009; Johnson et al., 2012)

• Data-driven mitigation planning– We need more tailored and flexible responses– Where are cooling facilities and capacity given shifting

patterns of vulnerability?– Green infrastructure alongside construction materials

alongside social factors

Conclusions

Thank You

[email protected]

https://ohvm.shinyapps.io/ohvm-prototype

open heat vulnerability mapper · bev wilson and arnab chakraborty department of urban &...

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