open source x in support of all-source intelligence 1
TRANSCRIPT
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Open Source
x
In Support of All-Source Intelligence1
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2This viewgraph has
been adjusted to be
buzzword-compliantThis viewgraph has
been adjusted to be
buzzword-compliant
All-Source Product
How much value does each contribute?
Horizontally Integrated
SIGINT
Imagery
MASINT
HUMINT
Open Source
Diplomatic Reporting
IMINT
OSINT
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“Citation” Method
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“Incremental/ Step-wise” Method
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Average Added Value of “Successive” INTs 4
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Surprising? Conclusions
• Horizontal Integration across all the INTs produces diminishing returns
• If open-source is the most cost-effective, then the best strategy for any INT is:– That INT plus open source …other things being equal
• It is important, for a problem set, to understand the likely contribution of each INT– Analysts should (and probably do) prioritize their effort
across the various INTs
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Why is Open-Source Under-Utilized ?
• Conservation of analyst-effort– Other INTs deliver products that are higher up the
value chain• Not just raw collection, but
• Analyzed and synthesized product, that is
• Ready to cut and paste into an all-source product, while
• “Open source” typically provides an Internet connection, or an unexpurgated, unevaluated, unqualified article
• Suppose– Open source items arrived in form similar to other
single-source reporting ?
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Increasi
ng
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Testing the Hypothesis
Open-loop Req’ts driven
Finished Products
Annotated Collection
Raw Access
The experimental spaceThe experimental space
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Open Source …
… The “Rosetta Stone”aka The “Horizontal Integrator”
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Some Simple Truths
• If an open-source specimen is related to, say, a SIGINT product and to an IMINT product, then:– That SIGINT and IMINT product are necessarily
related (can horizontal integration be so simple?)
• If a consumer has an interest in an open-source specimen, and if that open-source specimen is related to an INT product, then– That user has an interest in that INT product
• There are no sources and methods issues with respect to open source
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VPN/PVN
Internet11
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Intelink
SBU-net12
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Open-Source Mediation, Cont’d
• Requirements by Example– “I am interested in this piece of open source, show me
other intelligence products like it;” or,
– “If you are interested in this piece of open source, can I show you other intelligence products like it?”
• The Great Collaborator– “You and I are both interested in this piece of open-
source … let’s talk”
– “You two are interested in this piece of open source… why don’t you two talk?”
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Summary of the (unofficial) IC Open Source Investment
Strategy
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IC Investment Goals for Open Source
• Improve access to open sources and provide technology, training and infrastructure to integrate these sources efficiently into highest quality all-source intelligence.
• Use open sources to inform clandestine and technical collection and to free up capacity in the more expensive, politically risky collection disciplines.
• Capitalize on the consumer’s own access to open sources and the way these shape their policy and operational agendas.
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Investment Challenges
• Large volumes of largely irrelevant information ("noise") and media which, like television, resist easy computer indexing, storage, and retrieval.
• Highly localized foreign media, which often are in indigenous language.
• The need to interact directly with open sources and to integrate them with clandestine and technical sources, which raises a security concern.
• The legal imperative to protect the intellectual property of others. 16
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Investment Portfolio
• Investments in the sources themselves—i.e., collection or acquisition
• Investments in the people—primarily training, including language training
• Investments in technology—e.g., “data mining”
• Investments in infrastructure—e.g., unclassified, private network access
• Investments in Operations and Maintenance (O&M)
• Investments in Tasking, Processing, Exploitation & Dissemination (TPED)
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Assumptions
• Increasing availability of open sources of interest to the Intelligence Community, much in indigenous language and much of it disorganized
• Hard copy will remain important, but multi-media sources will increase in volume and importance
• Dissemination will have to be a combination of “push” and “pull”
• Commercial business models will serve the Intelligence Community well, and commercial technology will satisfy nearly all of its needs
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An Open Source Commercial Strategy
• Procuring primary source materials• Procuring value-added products• Outsourcing
• Adopting e-business practices in the Intelligence Community.
Willing to Purchase ?
Raw Sources Only
Simple Compendia
Annotated Collections
Value-Added Analytic Pieces
Unclassified National
Estimates
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Said fast, sounds easy “To win the undying gratitude of analysts and
intelligence consumers a dozen years hence, all we have to do is right-size the Open Source investment portfolio and remove the legal, technical and cultural impedimenta to best use of open sources. We must– Put a computing and communications
infrastructure in place to support universal Community access to open sources in a way that supports their fusion into classified all-source analysis.
– Negotiate affordable access to commercial data sources in a way that supports sharing across the intelligence enterprise without violating intellectual property rights.
– Provide tools to process the low-grade ore and extract the nuggets
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Open Source
x
In Support of All-Source Intelligence21