ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

December 17, 2014 Opening Bell

Market Outlook Today’s Highlights

• The volatility in global equity, currency and commodities markets has got heightened on geopolitical tensions emanating from Russia. Long term investors may start staggered investments at current levels while preparing for more volatility.

US CPI YoY, eurozone CPI YoY, US current account balance, Japan trade balance

Index Movement (past one month)

Markets Yesterday

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

16-D

ec

12-D

ec

10-D

ec

8-De

c

4-De

c

2-De

c

28-N

ov

26-N

ov

24-N

ov

20-N

ov

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

BSE (RHS) NSE (LHS)

Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)Sensex 26,781 27,320 -2.0 -4.8 29.0 17.2Nifty 8,068 8,068 0.0 -6.1 28.0 17.2

• Domestic markets closed negative as India's trade deficit widened to the highest in 18 months amid weak global cues. The global triggers included crude oil prices going below $60/barrel and failure of an emergency interest rate rise to stabilise Russia’s rouble

• US markets closed negative due to lower crude oil prices amid caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated monetary policy announcement on Wednesday

Key Developments

• Strides Arcolab has received USFDA approval for Calcitriol soft gel capsules used for treatment of patients with kidney disease who have vitamin D deficiency. According to IMS, the US market for generic Calcitriol soft gel capsules is ~US$50 million

• As per media sources, in response to the unseasonal rain and hailstorm in North Maharashtra & Konkan regions, in the previous week and consequent loss of crops, the Government of Maharashtra has announced an aid of | 10,000/hectare for dry land farmers and | 15,000/hectare aid for fruit growers in the region

• A special court has rejected CBI's closure report on Hindalco in the coal block allocation case. It further ruled that investigation is needed and sought the Coal Minister’s statement in allocation of coal blocks

• Tech Mahindra has invested $100 million to drive innovation and entrepreneurship within the company and build vertical-specific solutions with co-creation of products with partners & customers

• The world's largest 750 MW solar power station will come up in Rewa district's Gudh, Madhya Pradesh to be part funded by World bank (50% debt) and by a JV between the Central and state government (balance 50%)

Institutional Activity CY12 CY13 YTD CY14 Yesterday Last 5 Days

FII (| cr) 127,034 112,221 103,758 -1,247 -3,105DII (| cr) -55,516 -74,124 -36,330 535 1,788

World Indices – Monthly performance

Nikkei U.K.

Dow Jones BSE17,069 26,781-2.6% -2.6%

4,093 4,548 8,068-4.8%6,332

-4.2%-2.6% -3.0% -3.8%16,825

21.9% 3.4% -2.1%France Nasdaq NSE

Shanghai Germany Kospi3,045 9,564 1,906

Nifty Heat Map

193.6

-7.8%Hindalco

144.8Dr Reddy

Sesa Sterlite-4.8% -5.5% -6.4%

DLF-3.8%

3,142.4

JSPL132.0 ICICI

Bank

295.6Tata power

79.9SBI

-3.1%

-4.1%

139.3 Ambuja Cement

United Spirits

2,761.9

-4.8%

1,392.0

218.9

-3.3% -3.4% -3.5%

766.7

-3.0%ACC

IDFCHDFC Ltd

-2.5%

Indusind Bank

Tata Motors

481.7

-2.4%

763.8

-4.6%

Bank of Baroda

1,008.5

-4.2% -4.2%

330.7

1,086.9NTPC

413.5

-2.0% -2.1%

389.7

151.7

Ultratech2,484.9

GAIL

128.3

-3.0%

-1.2% -1.4%Cipla

623.4

-1.7%

1,483.4

HDFC Bank

925.8830.2

-0.9%

1,938.0

0.7%

Bajaj Auto

2,494.8

Infosys

-3.0%

HUL

864.6 Sun Pharma

1,227.5

1,071.9

-2.0%M&M

-2.7%

-2.3%

Tech M.2,534.6

1.6%

-0.9%Wipro

536.8

L&T

ITC380.6

Cairn India

235.7

-2.6% -2.8%Tata Steel

134.4PNB

-1.7%-1.6%

-2.3%ONGC

3,309.9

335.6

-2.2%

Maruti

RILLupin3,365.9

-1.4% -1.5%

Coal India366.8

NMDC

Asian Paints

Hero Moto

647.5

1.7%

3,132.8

BPCL

-1.1%

-0.4%

758.9

2,443.1

350.1

Kotak Bank

472.0

1,283.5

-1.7%

0.0%

-1.9%

1,425.3 Grasim Ind

Bharti Airtel

3.6%

Power Grid

133.1

-1.0% -1.0%

BHEL-0.4%

247.8

Axis Bank

TCS1,558.9

5.0%HCL Tech

Markets Today Close Previous Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)

CommoditiesGold (|/10 gm) 27,147 27,386 -0.9 3.3 -1.4Silver (|/kg) 36,799 37,844 -2.8 3.1 -15.2Crude ($/barrel) 59.1 60.0 -1.5 -15.8 -46.7Copper ($/tonne) 6409.5 6447.5 -0.6 0.0 -13.1CurrencyUSD/INR 63.54 62.95 0.9 -2.4 -2.7EUR/USD 1.25 1.25 0.0 0.4 -9.0USD/YEN 116.77 116.41 0.3 1.6 -9.8ADRsHDFC Bank 48.8 49.1 -0.6 -5.9 42.5ICICI Bank 11.0 11.3 -2.9 NA NATata Motors 40.1 41.3 -3.1 -8.8 34.2Infosys 31.0 30.9 0.4 -9.0 9.1Dr Reddys Labs 48.5 52.2 -7.1 -6.9 27.2

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Key Data Points Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore) Key Domestic Economic Indicator Period Release Date Latest Values Prior Values Fed Fiscal Deficit Nov 31-Dec - 4,757.51bln IN Current Account Q3 03~08Dec 10.1bln mo -7.8bln mo Exports - USD Nov 10~15Dec 25.96bln $ 26.1bln $ FX Reserves, USD Final w/e 19-Dec - 314.66bln $ GDP Quarterly yy Q2 28-Nov 5.30% 5.70% GDP Annual 12M 30-May 4.70% 4.50% Imports - USD Nov 10~15Dec 42.82bln $ 39.4bln $ Industrial Output yy Oct 12-Dec -4.20% 2.50% Manufacturing Output Oct 12-Dec -7.60% 2.50% Trade Deficit - RBI Q3 03~08Dec 38.6bln $ -34.6bln $ Trade Deficit Govt - USD Nov 10~15Dec 16.86bln $ 13.35bln $ WPI Food yy Nov 15-Dec 0.63% 2.70% WPI Fuel yy Nov 15-Dec -4.91% 0.40% WPI Inflation yy Nov 15-Dec - 1.77% WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy Nov 15-Dec 2.04% 2.43% RBI Cash Reserve Ratio N/A 2-Dec 4.00% 4.00% RBI Repo Rate N/A 2-Dec 8.00% 8.00% RBI Reverse Repo Rate N/A 2-Dec 7.00% 7.00%

3,04

0

3,04

1

3,30

7

2,97

6

2,92

4

3,55

1

16,1

49

15,5

13

16,4

09

16,3

61

14,0

12

18,2

60

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

9-Dec 10-Dec 11-Dec 12-Dec 15-Dec 16-DecBSE Cash NSE Cash

NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)

244,

844

203,

090

283,

719

242,

100

215,

422

401,

964

0100000200000300000400000500000

9-Dec 10-Dec 11-Dec 12-Dec 15-Dec 16-DecNSE Derivative

Sectoral Index Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%) Sector Close Previous Change % Change Volume

Auto 18304.9 18604.0 -299.1 -1.6 1118000

Banks 20435.9 21048.3 -612.4 -2.9 6261000

BSE Small Cap 10628.6 10997.9 -369.3 -3.4 110697000

Capital Goods 14841.8 15091.8 -250.0 -1.7 8437000

Consumer Durables 9145.6 9372.8 -227.2 -2.4 538000

FMCG 7790.1 8038.0 -247.9 -3.1 2032000

Healthcare 14479.6 14888.4 -408.8 -2.7 1088000

IT 10264.6 10096.7 168.0 1.7 1070000

Metals 10119.1 10559.9 -440.7 -4.2 7071000

Mid Cap 9764.7 10062.6 -297.9 -3.0 78293000

Oil & Gas 9611.7 9751.8 -140.1 -1.4 2819000

Power 1952.1 2000.4 -48.3 -2.4 15108000

PSU 7778.8 7993.5 -214.7 -2.7 18494000

Real Estate 1498.2 1557.4 -59.2 -3.8 16902000

-10.0-7.4-7.3

-6.7-5.8

-5.0-4.7

-2.8-2.0

-0.9-0.3

0.33.7

4.6

-15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

Oil & GasMetals

ITReal Estate

PowerCapital Goods

Consumer DurablesPSU

BSE Small CapMid Cap

AutoHealthcare

FMCGBanks

(%)

Key News for Today Company/Industry News View ImpactMahindra andMahindra

Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) is looking toobserve plant shutdowns at various plantsacross the country to align production withdemand. The "no production days" could rangefrom one to seven days. This exercise isexpected to run till March 2015

M&M has witnessed more weakness onthe demand side vis-à-vis the PV marketdue to lack of new products. On thetractors side, a sudden demand dip hasalso hit the major. This shutdown isprudent to manage fixed costs in a weakdemand environment

Jagran Prakashan Jagran Prakashan has forayed into the radiobusiness with the acquisition of Radio City FMstations. The acquisition is an all-cash deal,though the exact valuations remain unavailableas of now

Radio City operates in 20 FM stationswith a presence in metros and a listenerbase of about 10.8 million. Thisacquisition will enable Jagran to have asizeable presence in the radio industryand enable the company to benefit fromrapid growth in radio advertisingrevenues

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Sensex Chart Technical Outlook

We said, "Positive if it holds 61.8% level despite negative global cues ... weak mode may continue otherwise ... " The index opened gap-down on negative global cues and failing to hold the 61.8% level, tanked as much as 538 points or 1.9% for the day. Except IT, all sectors lost 1.4% to 4.1% each. The A/D worsened further to extremely negative 1:10. The action formed the biggest bear candle in two months. It formed an eighth consecutivelower high-low. Seen against maximum eightlower high-lows since May 2012 and 10 lowerhigh-lows since October 2005, the index appears oversold. This can result in a sharp counter-rally in one or two days. However, until that actually happens, the bias wouldremain negative.

Pivot Points CNX Nifty Technical Picture Nifty Intraday Short Term

Trend Range bound Range boundTrend Reversal 0 0

Support 8050-8020 7950Resistance 8100-8140 840020 Days EMA 0 8350200 days EMA 0 7602

Index/Stocks Close S1 S2 R1 R2 Trend

SENSEX 26781.44 26612.00 26510.15 26843.55 26959.35 -ve

NIFTY 8067.60 8017.00 7987.00 8085.40 8119.60 -ve

ACC 1391.95 1373.45 1366.85 1397.20 1409.10 -ve

ADANI ENTER. 440.55 437.80 435.05 443.25 445.95 Neutral

ADANI POWER 40.20 38.75 38.55 40.70 41.70 -ve

ADITYA BIRLA 1605.20 1578.50 1567.55 1615.95 1634.70 -ve

ALLAHABAD BANK 117.70 114.85 113.40 118.80 120.80 -ve

ANDHRA BANK 81.65 79.45 78.75 82.55 84.10 -ve

APOLLO HOSPITALS 1124.35 1104.95 1097.55 1130.90 1143.90 -ve

APOLLO TYRES 223.25 217.90 215.60 223.95 226.95 -ve

ARVIND 252.25 249.05 245.90 252.25 253.90 -ve

ASHOK LEYLAND 45.90 44.80 44.25 46.20 46.90 -ve

ASIAN PAINTS 758.85 751.55 747.50 759.05 762.80 -ve

AUROBINDO PHARMA 1095.85 1069.75 1059.70 1097.35 1111.15 -ve

BAJAJ AUTO 2494.75 2467.55 2455.80 2498.45 2513.90 -ve

BOB 1008.50 985.95 977.95 1016.80 1032.20 -ve

BOI 278.55 271.50 269.30 278.80 282.45 -ve

BATA INDIA 1269.55 1246.45 1238.10 1272.60 1285.70 -ve

Advances / Declines

Advances Declines UnchangedBSE 518 2362 82NSE 179 1366 41

Daily Technical Calls

1.  Buy Tech Mahindra above 2550.002.  Sell IDFC below 157.003.  Sell Century Textile in range of 497-498

*All recommendations are of December Future

See Momentum Pick for more details

Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – December 2014 Intraday Derivative Strategy Buy JUBFOO Dec Fut at 1310.00-1314.00

View: BullishStrategy: Buy FutureTarget 1: 1324 Target 2: 1340Stop Loss: 1295.50Market Lot: 250 CMP : 1295

Sell STABAN Dec Fut at 299.50-300.20View: BearishStrategy: Sell FutureTarget 1: 297.20 Target 2: 294.20Stop Loss: 302.80Market Lot: 1250 CMP : 298.40

120104106

8547

3929

22

405147

7093

12845

2316

150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0

850084008300820081008000790078007700

Call Put See Daily Derivatives for more details

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Results/Events Calendar

Japan Industrial production 00 India Fiscal Deficit

24 25Saturday

Eight Infra Industries Ind India GDP YoY 0Markit US Service PMI

NovemberFriday

November

US GDP Annualized QoQ Initial Jobless Claims (US)

29 November

0

27 2826UK GDP YoY 0

Tuesday

04DecemberTuesday

December

W

Wednesday

0 Continuing Claims (US) 0

Tuesday09

02

0

RBI Cash Reserve Ratio

03

0

00

08Japan Current Account Bal.

0

HSBC India Manu. PMIMarkit Japan Manu. PMI

01

Markit US Composite PMI00

0

DecemberMonday

Markit UK Manu. PMIMankit US Manu. PMI

DecemberMonday

UK GDP YoYUK Current Account BalanceUS GDP Annualised QoQ

Monday

Markit US Manu. PMI

0

0

Tuesday

UK CPI YoY

23

December

0

22

0

15

DecemberMonday

0

0

0

0 0

Markit Eurozone Manu. PMI

0 0

19

US Continuing Claims

US New Home Sales 0 EC CPI Core YoY

0

India WPI YoYUS Industrial Prod. MoMUS manufacturing Prod.

10

December

11

EC GDP YoY 0

DecemberWednesday Thursday

December

0RBI Repurchase Rate Markit EC Service PMI 0 EC GDP SA YoY 0RBI Reverse Repo Rate China Non-Manu. PMI 0

0

UK Industrial Production YoY India Exports YoY US Initial Jobless Claims India CPI YoY 0

00 0

December

0 Japan PPI YoY 0 China Industrial Prod YoYUK Manu. Production YoY India Imports YoY US Continuing Claims India Industrial Prod YoY

ECB Current Account

0

18

UK Construction Output

ThursdayDecember

0 China CPI YoY 0 Japan Industrial Production0 0

FridayDecember17

WednesdayDecember16

00

0 Japan Industrial Prod. YoY0

0US CPI YoY

0US Current Account Balance Markit US Comp. PMI 0

Markit US Service PMI

Eurozone CPI YoY

Japan Trade Balance

US Initial Jobless Claims

0

00

00 Japan CPI YoY 00 India Eight Infra Industries 0

0

0

0

0

20

00

DecemberSaturday

0

ednesday Thursday

0 0 EC Unemployment Rate00

November November

EC PPI YoY Markit EC Composite PMIMarkit EC Manu. PMI

0

MondayNovember

HSBC India Service PMI 0 US Trade Balance

12

0

US Unemployment Rate

DecemberFriday

0 0 00

SaturdayDecember

FridayDecemberThursday

05 06 December

HSBC China Manu. PMI

DecemberWednesday ThursdayTuesday

December

0 0

SaturdayDecember27

DecemberSaturday

0

0

13

0

0

December2624 25 DecemberFriday

Major Economic Events this week

Bulk Deals

Company Client Name TypeNo. of shares Price (|)

BSE*Naysaa Securities Ltd Alacrity Securities Limited Sell 24,000 14.5NRB Indus. Bearings Ltd. Acacia Institutional Partners Sell 150,000 30.4Zenith Fibres Ltd Wallfort Financial Services Ltd Buy 50,000 49.6

NSE*

NRB Indus. Bearings Ltd. Acacia Institutional Partners Sell 452,582 30.4

Recent Releases Date Report

16 December 14 Management Meet Update- MPS

16 December 14 Initiating Coverage- CARE

10 December 14 Management Meet Update- Gandhi Special Tubes

08 December 14 Management Meet Update- APL Apollo

Date Event CountryPeriod Actual Expected15-Dec Wholesale Prices YoY IN Nov 0.00% 1.10%15-Dec Industrial Production MoM US Nov 1.30% 0.70%15-Dec Manufacturing (SIC) Production US Nov 1.10% 0.70%16-Dec HSBC China Manufacturing PM

05 December 14 Company Update - Infosys

I CH Dec P 49.5 49.816-Dec Markit Eurozone Manufacturing EC Dec P 50.8 50.616-Dec CPI YoY UK Nov 1.00% 1.20%16-Dec Markit US Manufacturing PMI US Dec P 53.7 56.0

Date Event CountryPeriod Expected Previous17-Dec Trade Balance JN Nov -¥992.0B -¥710.0B17-Dec CPI YoY EC Nov F 0.30% --17-Dec CPI YoY US Nov 1.50% 1.70%17-Dec Current Account Balance US 3Q -$97.5B -$98.5B18-Dec Initial Jobless Claims US 13-Dec -- 294K18-Dec Continuing Claims US 6-Dec -- 2514K18-Dec Markit US Composite PMI US Dec P -- 56.118-Dec Markit US Services PMI US Dec P -- 56.219-Dec ECB Current Account SA EC Oct -- 30.0B

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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

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