opening doors: the rising proportion of women and minority scientists and engineers in the united...
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Opening Doors: The rising proportion of Women and Minority Scientists and
Engineers in the United States
January 14, 2005
Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
Richard Freeman
Tanwin ChangHanley Chiang
Three Messages
1. Substantial increase in proportions of PhDs for women and underrepresented minorities something worked
2. “Attributable” largely to increase in BS degrees
3. Some evidence of policy contribution to improved diversity
SUPPLY INCREASES BUT ACADEMIC AND RESEARCH CAREER PROBLEMS
1.1 Percentage of S&E Bachelor’s Degrees Earned by Females, 1976-2001
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
All S&EPhysicalMath/CSLifeEngineerSoc/Psych
Source: Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office for Civil Rights; National Center for Education Statistics.
Note: Chart refers to bachelor’s degrees earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.
1.2 Percentage of S&E Doctorates Earned by Females, 1976-2001
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
All S&EPhysicalMath/CSLifeEngineerSoc/Psych
Source: Authors’ tabulations from the Survey of Earned Doctorates.
Note: Chart refers to doctorates earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.
1.3 Percentage of S&E Bachelor’s Degrees Earned by Underrepresented Minorities, 1976-2001
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
All S&EPhysicalMath/CSLifeEngineerSoc/Psych
Source: Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office for Civil Rights; National Center for Education Statistics.
Note: Chart refers to bachelor’s degrees earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.
1.4 Percentage of S&E Doctorates Earned by Underrepresented Minorities, 1976-2001
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
All S&EPhysicalMath/CSLifeEngineerSoc/Psych
Source: Authors’ tabulations from the Survey of Earned Doctorates.
Note: Chart refers to doctorates earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.
1.6 Percentage of S&E Doctorates Earned by Asian-American U.S. Citizens, 1976-2001
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
All S&EPhysicalMath/CSLifeEngineerSoc/Psych
Source: Authors’ tabulations from the Survey of Earned Doctorates.
Note: Chart refers to doctorates earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.
2.1 Ratio of Doctorates to 5-Year Lagged Bachelor’s Degrees in S&E: By Demographic Group
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
White MalesFemalesMinoritiesAsians
Source: Authors’ tabulations from data obtained from the Survey of Earned Doctorates and the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
2.2 Ratio of Doctorates to 5-Year Lagged Bachelor’s Degrees: By Field
0
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.12
0.15
0.18
0.21
0.24
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
All S&EPhysicalMath/CSLifeEngineerSoc/Psych
Source: Authors’ tabulations from data obtained from the Survey of Earned Doctorates and the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
2.3 Decomposition of 1981-2000 Change in F/M and Minority/ Majority Ratios among PhD Recipients (ln units)
BA data lagged by 5 years compared to PhD dataMin: Underrepresented Minority
Change in Female/Male PhDs
= 0.74, explained by:
Rise in PhDs / BA(Females)16%
Rise in BA Females / BA Males.
70%
Fall in PhD/BA(Males)
14%
Change in (Min/Non-Min PhDs)= 0.82, explained by:
Rise in PhD/ BA(Minorities)
30%
Rise in BA Min / BA Non-Min 63%
Fall in PhD/BA(Non-Min)
7%
3.1 Percentage of NSF Fellowships Awarded to Women, 1952-2004
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
All FieldsComp SciEngineerLife SciPhys SciSocial/Psych
3.2 Percentage of NSF Fellowships Awarded to MinoritiesExcluding MGF Awards, 1976-2004
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
15.0%
18.0%
21.0%
24.0%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
All FieldsNatural/MathEngineeringSocial/Psych
3.3 Percentage of NSF Fellowships Awarded to MinoritiesIncluding MGF Awards, 1976-2004
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
All FieldsNatural/MathEngineeringSocial/Psych
3.4 Mean GRE Quantitative Scores for Individuals Intending Graduate Study in the Physical Sciences
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Males Females Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians
1992-931997-982001-02
Source: ETS, Sex, Race, Ethnicity, and Performance on the GRE General Test, various years.
Note: Racial/ethnic categories only consist of U.S. citizens.
3.5 Mean GRE Quantitative Scores of GRFP and MGF Applicants, 1976-2004: By Selected Demographic Groups
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Non-Minority
Black GRFP
Hispanic GRFP
Black MGF
Hispanic MGF
1999-2004Female 0.033 0.036 0.037 0.042
(0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.003)Minority 0.089 0.069 0.078 0.033
(0.003) (0.002) (0.003) (0.005)Panel Rating 0.177 0.170 0.192
(0.001) (0.001) (0.002)GRE Quant/100 0.037 -0.010
(0.001) (0.001)GRE Verbal/100 0.066 0.019
(0.001) (0.001)GPA 0.094 -0.010
(0.003) (0.003)Reference Score 0.074 0.022
(0.001) (0.001)Field Effects Yes Yes Yes YesYear Effects Yes Yes Yes YesObservations 107658 115018 107597 38273R-Squared 0.1795 0.2609 0.2731 0.3089Mean of Dep. Var 0.133 0.128 0.133 0.143
1976-1998
3.6 Estimated Determinants of Getting GRF Award, 1976-2004
3.7 Wide Variation in % Female/MinorityAmong Universities in Same Discipline, 1996-2000
Example for women: Economics
5 lowest (171 PhDs) 15%
5 highest (155 PhDs) 45%
Example for minorities: Chemistry
5 lowest (439 PhDs) 2%
5 highest (303 PhDs) 19%
Mean Deviation of Percent Minority from “ExpectedPercent Minority
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mean deviation from Minority Fraction
Simulation:Random Distribution of minorities.1000 Runs
Num
ber
of S
imul
atio
n R
uns
Biology Depts. 6.8% Minority
Value calculated from data: 0.073
Conclusions
1. Women and minorities have made strong gains in representation in the S&E workforce
2. Some evidence for policies and programs, but
3. Most of the gains can be explained by increases in Bachelors’ – potentially normal supply response
4. Economists’ view: If they are in the workforce, want to use them optimally make career and life compatible: Childbearing issues for women
Mentoring for minorities and women
Role in team based science