Valuation Metrics (Year end Dec) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Recommendation: HOLD P/E 10.17 10.17 10.0 9.0 8.2

Fair Value: TRY 3.17 EV / Sales 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2

EV / EBIT 28.1 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1

Share Price: TRY 3.11 EV / EBITDA 10.1 6.7

Upside / Downside: 1.8% P/BV 0.56 0.80 0.8 0.7 0.7

FCF Yield -10.9% 4.4% 9.3% 10.5% 12.1%

Previous Fair Value: TRY 2.97 OCF Yield 0.6% 13.4% 19.3% 22.4% 25.1%

% change to Fair Value: 6.5%

Bloomberg ticker: TRKCM TI Key Ratios 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Reuters code: TRKCM IS

EBITDA margin 13.0% 15.8% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7%

Operating Profit margin 4.6% 7.4% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8%

Capex / Revenue (15.6%) (8.6%) (8.3%) (9.2%) (9.2%)

Shares In Issue Less Treasury (m) 930 Capex / Depreciation (1.88) (1.02) (1.06) (1.16) (1.17)

Market Cap (TRY m) 2,892 Net Debt / EBITDA 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.2

Net Debt (as of 3Q16-end) 896 ROA 3% 8% 4% 4% 4%

Adjustments For Associates & Minorities - ROE 6% 17% 8% 9% 9%

Enterprise Value (TRY m) 3,788

Net Pension Deficit (Surplus) -

P&L Summary (TRY m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Forthcoming Catalysts Revenue 2,118 3,016 3,447 3,765 4,072

% change 4.9% 42.4% 14.3% 9.2% 8.2%

1Q17 financial results April 2017 EBITDA 274 478 576 629 680

% change (15.0%) 74.2% 20.5% 9.2% 8.2%

% margin 13.0% 15.8% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7%

Depreciation & Amortisation 176 254 272 297 321

Operating Profit 98 223 304 332 359

% change -42.9% 127.2% 35.9% 9.2% 8.2%

% margin 4.6% 7.4% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8%

Associates - - -

Global Securities Analysts EBIT 98 223 304 332 359

Utku Uygur, Ph.D. Net Financials -18 -119 -81 -82 -84

+90 850 201 94 89 Other Pre-tax Income 117 498 155 169 183

utkuu@global.com.tr Pre Tax Profit 197 602 378 419 458

Income Tax Expense -28 -27 -70 -76 -83

Discontinued Operations - - -

Revenue Pie chart split by geography (as of 12M16) Minority Interests (10) (28) (18) (21) (23)

Net Income 159 547 290 322 353

Reported EPS (TRY) 0.18 0.59 0.31 0.35 0.38

Underlying EPS (TRY) 0.18 0.59 0.31 0.35 0.38

DPS (TRY) 0.10 0.14 0.10 0.11 0.12

Payout Ratio 55.0% 50.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0%

Shares In Issue Less Treasury (m) 895.00 930.00 930.00 930.00 930.00

,

Cash Flow (TRY m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Revenue Pie Chart split by products (as of 12M16) EBIT 98 223 304 332 359

-Taxes paid (28) (27) (70) (76) (83)

+Depreciation 176 254 272 297 321

+ Increase in accounts payable (66) 375 56 30 22

-Increase in accounts receivable 84 301 6 (38) (57)

-Increase in inventory 81 120 (7) (32) (45)

-Increases in other current assets (2) 18 5 4 (4)

Cash flow from operations 17 387 557 649 725

Capex 331 260 287 345 376

FCFF (314) 127 270 304 349

Balance Sheet (TRY m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2018E

Margin Trends

Cash & Equivalents 1,170 1,216 1,390 1,517 1,641

Inventory 440 548 433 401 355

Trade Receivables 402 703 709 671 615

Fixed Assets 2,722 3,327 3,362 3,377 3,424

Other Assets 892 1,085 1,853 2,689 3,423

Total Assets 5,627 6,879 7,747 8,655 9,459

Interest Bearing Debt 1,886 2,369 2,852 3,334 3,817

Trade Payables 261 446 719 749 771

Other Liabilities 340 478 547 597 646

Total Liabilities 2,488 3,293 4,001 4,681 5,234

Shareholders' Equity 2,889 3,293 3,439 3,649 3,879

Minority Interests 249 293 306 325 346

Total Equity 3,139 3,587 3,745 3,974 4,224

Net Debt (Cash) 716 1,153 1,462 1,817 2,176

Trakya Cam

Turkey56%

Europe38%

Other6%

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4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

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13

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Cash

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EBITDA margin Operating profit margin

Float63%

Auto&Other37%