operational capability for s2s prediction · a_cv skeb+sppt+shum 2-tiered sst scale aware...
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National Weather Service
Operational Capability for S2S Prediction
NWS strategy for S2S Forecasting using the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Vijay Tallapragada & Yuejian Zhu, EMC, NCEP, NOAA
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 2
Climate/Weather Linkage
Forecast Uncertainty
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
2 Week
Months
Seasons Years
NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Weather and Climate
GEFS and NAEFS
Climate Forecast System*
Fore
cast
Lea
d Ti
me
Warnings & Alert Coordination
Watches
Forecasts
Threats Assessments
Guidance
Outlook
Benefits
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model
Hurricane Models
Global Forecast System
North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation
Dispersion Models for DHS
Current NCEP Models
Mar
itim
e
Life
& P
rope
rty
Spa
ce O
pera
tions
Rec
reat
ion
Eco
syst
em
Env
ironm
ent
Emer
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y M
gmt
Agr
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ture
Res
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ir C
ontro
l
Ene
rgy
Pla
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Com
mer
ce
Hyd
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Fire
Wea
ther
Hea
lth
Avi
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 3
Climate/Weather Linkage
Forecast Uncertainty
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
2 Week
Months
Seasons Years
NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Weather and Climate
GEFS and NAEFS - Extend to 35 days - Extend to 45 days
Seasonal Forecast System*
Fore
cast
Lea
d Ti
me
Warnings & Alert Coordination
Watches
Forecasts
Threats Assessments
Guidance
Outlook
Benefits
Ocean Model
Hurricane Models
Global Forecast System
Regional Forecast System
Future NCEP Models
Mar
itim
e
Life
& P
rope
rty
Spa
ce O
pera
tions
Rec
reat
ion
Eco
syst
em
Env
ironm
ent
Emer
genc
y M
gmt
Agr
icul
ture
Res
ervo
ir C
ontro
l
Ene
rgy
Pla
nnin
g
Com
mer
ce
Hyd
ropo
wer
Fire
Wea
ther
Hea
lth
Avi
atio
n
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 4
UnifiedForecastSystem
Application =
Ensemble +
Reanalysis +
Reforecast
NGGPS Unified Global Coupled Model
“GFS” “GEFS” “SFS”
Actionable weather
Week 1 through 4-6
Seasonal & annual
1 y 2 y 4 y Update cycle
3 y 20-25 y 1979 - present Reanalysis
6h 6-24h ??? cycling
WCOSS WCOSS WCOSS ? where
Atmosphere Land
Ocean Seaice Wave
Aerosol
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 5
Motivation for sub-seasonal forecasts
• The NWS issues global forecasts at two time scales – weather (e.g. GFS, GEFS etc) and seasonal (CFSv2)
• The weather act from Congress instructs NWS to provide forecast guidance from weather to sub seasonal and seasonal scales
• NWS is in the process of upgrading its operational modeling suite using a new atmospheric dycore (FV3)
• NWS is using this opportunity to upgrade and unify its modeling capability across different scales
• Initial version of sub-seasonal forecast system (Global Ensemble Forecast System v2) will be uncoupled, and will set the basis for future improvements.
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 6
FV3 Dycore and Global ModelsGEFS (Ensemble) v12 • Configuration
• C384L64 (~25km) • 31 members, 4 cycles/day, out to
16 days • Extend 35 days forecast at 00UTC
• Q3FY18: Start to produce 20 years (1999-2018) reanalysis
• Q4FY18: Start to produce 30 years (1989-2018) reforecast
• Q2FY19: Start to produce retrospective runs (2.5 years)
• Q3FY19: Start users evaluation • Q2FY20: Implement FV3GEFS
operational version (v12)
GFS (Deterministic) • January 2019: Implement
FV3GFS Version 1.0 (GFS/GDAS v15.0)
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 7
CRPSS for NH 500hPa geopotential height
6 days
10 days
18+ years
End of 2017
GEFSv7 ET-BV
GEFSv9 STTP
GEFSv11 EnKF
NCEP GEFS Performance (1999-2017)
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 8
Experiments Stochastic Schemes Boundary (SST) Convection
CTL STTP Default Default SPs SKEB+SPPT+SHUM Default Default
SPs+SST_bc SKEB+SPPT+SHUM 2-Tiered SST Default SPs+SST_bc+S
A_CV SKEB+SPPT+SHUM 2-Tiered SST Scale Aware Convection
Table: Configuration differences for four experiments
The period of experiments are from May 1st 2014 to May 26 2016, and forecasts are initiated for every 7 days at 00UTC. The main difference of
four experiments can be found in table
“SubX” 35d forecast Set Up
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 9
CFSv2 is NCEP operational climate forecast system (coupling) implemented on 2011 – 16 members leg (24 hours) ensemble
GEFS week 3&4 forecasts (May 2014-May 2016)
How about MJO skill of coupling model ?
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 10
SPs+SST_bc+SA-CV (0.404) CFSv2 (0.306)
GEFS week 3&4 forecasts (May 2014-May 2016)
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 11
Weeks 3&4 forecast discussion:
Ensemble size T2m calibration
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 12 12
WH-MJO Forecast Skills: Ensemble mean vs each member
5-memebrs 11-memebrs
21-memebrs
Ensemble size for MJO skills
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 13
PAC Scores Domains Variables 21 Members 11 Members 5 Members 1 Member
Day 8-14
NH z500 0.628 0.619 0.586 0.463
SH z500 0.620 0.609 0.582 0.458
TR u850 0.686 0.673 0.646 0.501
u250 0.641 0.630 0.605 0.490
Day 15-28
NH z500 0.410 0.405 0.372 0.257
SH z500 0.380 0.363 0.323 0.194
TR u850 0.583 0.571 0.544 0.400
u250 0.430 0.420 0.409 0.300
Comparison of Ensemble Size
Anomaly Correlation for different ensemble sizes from SPs+SST_bc+SA_CV averaged over 25 months for lead days 8-14 (week 2) and lead days 15-28 (weeks 3 & 4). The bolded values represent results that are significantly degraded from the 21-member ensemble experiment at the 95% confidence level.
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 14
From ensemble mean: 40m will extend skill about 4 hrs 60-80m will extend skill about 8 hrs
NH 500hPa height
Similar skills for 60m and 80m 40m will extend skills for 4-5 hrs
60-80m will extend skills for 8 hrs
ACC
CRPS
GEFS ensemble membership size testing from GEFSv11 configuration for 3-months. Random selected 20-, 40- and 60-members from 80-members pool
Summary: Based on weather forecast skill analysis (ensemble mean and ensemble distribution) – 60 members could be optimum approach for weather configuration
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 15
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/
Diff: 3.5 degree
W. Africa and Mid-East CONUS
Inconsistent Analysis Domain average T2m analysis for July of past 17 years
N
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 16
Bias correction improves Wks 3&4 forecast skill (2016)
Using adjusted bias (1999-2015) to correct
2016 forecast
Weeks 3&4 surface temperature skills have
been improved significantly for CONUS (north/south) plain areas
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 17
FV3-GEFSnear-termplans• Q3FY2018:BeginFV3-Hybridreanalysisfor20
years(1999-2018)
• Q1FY2019:BeginFV3GEFSreforecast(30years;1989-2008)extendto35days– Challengeforinconsistentinitialanalyses– NWC(request)iswarethischallenge
• Q2FY2019:BegintoevaluateFV3GEFSforecastperformanceoutto35days.
• Q4FY2019:FV3GEFSbeginrunningreal-time• Q2FY2020:FV3GEFSOperational
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 18
UnifiedForecastSystem● NWS UFS system consists of the
following components (at the moment) ○ NEMS for infrastructure ○ FV3 dycore with Physics driver
(IPD) ○ MOM6 ocean model (S2S scales) ○ HYCOM ocean model (weather
scales) ○ WW3 wave model ○ CICE5 ice model ○ GOCART aerosol model ○ Noah MP land model
● Each component has its own authoritative repository. NEMS infrastructure allows flexibility to connect instantiations of the repositories together to create a coupled model.
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 19
CURRENTDEVELOPMENTS
FV3 – WW3 Effects of waves on atmospheric stress at ocean surface
MOM6 – CICE5 Ocean ice coupled model to look at polar dynamics and for developing a marine DA system
FV3 – MOM6 – CICE5 Coupled system for S2S scales (25 km atm, ¼ deg ocean and ice)
FV3 – MOM6 – CICE5 – WW3
Additional development of Langmuir mixing (25 km atm, ¼ deg ocean and ice, ½ deg waves)
FV3 – MOM6 – CICE5 Coupled system for S2S scales (25 km atm, ¼ deg ocean and ice)
FV3 – CHEM Atmosphere, aerosols interaction
ADCIRC – WW3 Wave and surge coupling (COASTAL ACT)
Each of these is a working coupled application which is actively being tested
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 20
Benchmark Runs
• A good test plan needs the following • Include multiple important cases • Short enough to be run multiple times
• To test the Sub seasonal modeling system • Initialize the model on the 1st and 15th of each month for 35
day runs • Model initialized with CFS analysis • Repeat for all months over a 7 year period (2011/2012 –
2017/2018) • Covers important El Nino / La Nina years as well as years of
very low ice • Provides a large enough sample for statistically relevant
metrics
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 21
ComparisonswithOISST
_____ OISST ………. MOM6 SST (Simulations start from 1st of each month in 2015)
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 22
SSTBiascomparison
week 1 week 2
week 3 week 4
week 3&4
week 1 week 2
week 3 week 4
week 3&4
CFSv2 UFS
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 23
CFSv2
UFS
UFS: generally warmer bias
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 24
CONUS2mTempbias
CFSv2 UFS
week 1 week 2 week 1 week 2
week 3 week 4
week 3&4
week 3 week 4
week 3&4
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 25
UFS: generally reduced cold bias; more instances of warm bias
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 26
CONUSPrecipbias
CFSv2 UFS
week 1 week 2
week 3 week 4
week 1 week 2
week 3 week 4
week 3&4 week 3&4
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 27
UFS: generally reduced wet bias
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 28
SeaIceExtent(Arctic)
CFSv2
UFS
Data
Data Source : NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration, Version 3 (https://nsidc.org/data/g02202/versions/3)
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 29
SeaIceExtent(Antarctic)
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 30
Upcoming Plans
• Adding additional model components to coupled model (waves, aerosols, new land model etc.)
• Develop a fractional land – sea mask capability to ensure accurate flux conservation between atmosphere and ocean
• Development of a marine DA system for end to end cycling
• Multiple series of benchmark runs to improve the coupled model • Physics • Conservation • Perturbations
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Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 31
Summary
• GEFSv12 will be the first NWS modeling system for sub-seasonal predictions, planned for implementation in Q2FY20
• EMC with its collaborators are building the coupled Unified Forecast System (UFS) for sub seasonal to seasonal time scales
• Target is an operational sub seasonal implementation (GEFSv13) in FY22 and the Seasonal Forecast System after that
• Initial benchmark tests show skill comparable to operational CFS (both global and CONUS scales); skill in polar domains significantly better
• Series of benchmark runs with new capabilities/physics (in partnership with OAR labs) are planned for the upcoming months
• A parallel effort is ongoing to build a DA capability for the marine components to enable fully cycled end to end testing