opportunities and challenges from commercial uav development€¦ · civil application...

Technische Universität München

Opportunities and challenges from UAV development

SACE – December 20171Jian Wang

Opportunities and Challenges from

commercial UAV development

Dr. –Ing. Jian Wang

Autel Robotics Europe




• Unmanned Flight – Enabling Factors for a New Boom

• Consumer Drones – Growth Beyond Expectation

• Civil Application – Opportunities and Oddities

• Possibility and Reality – Rules, Regulations and Certification

• Resulting Technological Challenges for Commercial Drones

• Conclusion

Outline




Unmanned Flight – Enabling Factors for a New Boom

Trend:

• Small

• Light-weight

• Cheap

• Inertial Sensors– Complete IMUs on a single MEMS-Chip

– Miniature GNSS receivers

• Microcontrollers & Toolchains– MCUs and SoCs, e.g. ARM Cortex M3/M4

– Development and debugging toolsets, e.g. Eclipse/GCC/JTAG

• Electric propulsion & energy storage– Lithium-Ion batteries

– Brushless DC direct drives

• Data links and -busses– High bandwidth spread spectrum radio links, esp. 2.4/5.8 GHz

– CAN/Flexray/Ethernet

• Manufacturing– Fibre-reinforced plastic

– Rapid prototyping

– Additive Manufacturing




Consumer Drones – Growth Beyond Expectation

DJI Inspire (Source: 14a.tv)DJI Phantom 3 (Source: rliland.wordpress.com)

Parrot AR-Drone 2.0 (Source: parrot.com)

3DR Solo (Source: 3D Robotics)

0

500

1000

1500

2013 2014 2015

Market Leader‘s Revenue (Million Dollars)

3D Robotics

Parrot

DJI

Sources:

statista.com

theverge.com

techcrunch.com/




• Headquarters: Shenzhen, China

• 2006: 20 employees

2016: ~ 3.300 employees

• World‘s biggest supplier of civilian drones

• Revenue: ~$500 million (2014)

~$900 million (2015)

~$1.5 billion (2016)

• Locations: USA, Germany, Netherlands, Japan, China

Products

• Complete UAV Systems

• Handheld / Aerial Gimbals

• Flight Controllers

• HD Video Link, Ground Station

„The Future of Possible” (www.dji.com)

DJI




New CompetitorsAutel Robotics

X-Star 3

Hover Precision: Horizontal: ±2m;

Vertical: ±1m

Max. Speed: 12m/s

Diagonal Wheelbase: 352mm

Propeller Size: 9.4” x 4.7”

Flight Modes: GPS, ATTI, IOC, Waypoint

Weight: 1.1kg

4k camera with

3-axis gimbal

HD video link display

via smartphone app

Source: autelrobo.com

Autel is manufacturer and supplier of professional

diagnostic tools, equipments and accessories in the

automotive aftermarket.

Now they enter into the UAV market




Novel Consumer Business IdeasAirdog

• 1699 €

• Long range Bluetooth wrist band

• Optimized for GoPro™ Camera

• Behaviour adapted to sport (Snow, Surf, Bike)

„The World’s first Auto-Follow Drone For Adventure Sports” (www.airdog.com)




Novel Consumer Business IdeasLily

• 999 $

• Multiple sensors (GPS, IMU, barometer, …)

• Electronic video gimbal; 1080p @ 60fps

• Tracks wrist band

• Waterproof

„Lily is the world’s first throw-and-shoot camera” (www.lily.camera)




Novel Consumer Business IdeasLily




Aerial Videos – “Antenne Bayern – Bayern von oben”

Source: Antenne Bayern




Civil Application – Opportunities and OdditiesAscending Technologies AscTec Falcon 8

Precision farming with multispectral & thermal sensorsInspection of industrial facilities

Orthophotography, DEM/DTM, mapping & cartographyDisasters - Palo, Philippines after Typhoon Haiyan

Source: AscTec.de

Source: AscTec.deSource: AscTec.de




Civil Application – Opportunities and OdditiesEMT Fancopter

• Sovereign functions, e.g.

law enforcement

• Surveillance and

reconnaissance

• Caged coaxial rotors

• Perching mode

• Daylight and IR cameras

Source: EMTSource: EMT




Civil Application – Opportunities and OdditiesDelivery Systems

• Amazon Prime Air

• Google Project Wing

• DHL Parcel copter

Source: Google

Source: Amazon

Source: DHL




Civil Application – Opportunities and OdditiesThe Lilium Jet – The world's first all-electric VTOL jet




Civil Application – Opportunities and OdditiesHigh Altitude Platforms

„Google Loon - Launch Event“ by Flicker User: iLighter.

Licensed as CC BY 2.0 by Wikimedia Commons

Facebook Aquila ConOps

Facebook Aquila

42 m span

400 kg




Civil Application – Opportunities and OdditiesEvents, Art and Advertisement

Source: Bayerische Staatsoper

Source: Ars Electronica FuturelabSource: ZDF

Drone Cafe in

Singapore

LED Light

Show

FSD firefly on stage at

Nationaltheater München




Civil Application – Opportunities and OdditiesAutel VTOL – No runway, No problem

• Technical specifications– Wingspan: 3500mm

– MTOW: 15kg

– Payload: 2kg

– Cruise speed: 65-90km/h

– Flight time: up to 2 hrs

– Range: up to 100 km




Kestrel Concept

18

The complete AUTEL system




Civil Application – Opportunities and OdditiesAutel Kestrel

Technology Demonstrator Aircraft - Source: Quantum GmbH




Civil Application – Opportunities and OdditiesDrone Detection and Defense

• UAV misuse for criminal purposes (spying,

terrorism, smuggling) becomes an increasing

issue

Detection and Defense Systems

Drone Catcher (Source: Delft Dynamics) Detection and Jamming (Source: Blighter)

Detection (Source: DeDrone)




Possibility and Reality –Rules, Regulations and Certification

• Legislation overwhelmed by rapid proliferation in consumer area

– Operation without (compulsory) insurance and sense of responsibility instruction leaflets

– Nervous and heterogeneous rule making attempts, even differing between federal states

slowly transforming into more coordinated procedures

• Germany– In 2012 authorities finally included UAVs in Civil Aviation Rules (NfL I 161/12)

– Only un-augmented visual line of sight – fine for 5 kg, pointless for 150 kg – nothing beyond

– UAV DACH (D, A, CH, NL, IT (N)) - German-speaking association: suggestions for rulemaking

• EU– JARUS: Joint Authorities for Rulemaking on Unmanned Systems

– EASA 2015: Concept of Operations for Drones –

A risk based approach to regulation of unmanned aircraft

– EASA A-NPA 2015-10 – Introduction of a draft for regulatory framework

• USA FAA– Test areas, Ambitious Projects: NASA UTM - Unmanned Aerial System Traffic Management

• Military– Valid & binding airworthiness according to STANAG 4671, 4703 etc. – no one complies




Possibility and Reality –Rules, Regulations and Certification

• Important: Acting with sound judgement – neither commercial aviation standards

(exaggerated and too expensive) nor hobby grade RC mindsets (no processes

and safety, „just works“) are appropriate

• Risk based approaches are slowly establishing –

• Quadrotor over a forest is different from a Euro Hawk above Allianz Arena

• Airworthiness is not enough – mission, operation and airspace integration matter

• In contrast to manned aviation, risk is highly dependent on mass, configuration

and mission.

Key questions

• What is a catastrophic event?

• What amount of risk is tolerable?

CS-23 Class I 10^-6

CS-25 10^-9

Eur Aviation Safety Target 10^-7

German State Safety Plan 2.8*10^-8

Lufthansa Safety Target 10^-8




Resulting Technological Challenges for

Commercial Drones• Safety based on system level fault-tree:

Aircraft, ground control station, data link AND MISSION

• Damage potential

• Risk mitigation measures (parachute, flight termination)

• No single point of failure – redundancy, diversity, system concept Fail operational

• Emergency handling / contingencies

• HMI / Situational awareness for BVLOS – latencies and information

• Data link: safety & security – problem with guaranteed properties

(availability, latency, … guarantees – loss of link scenarios)

• Automation or Autonomy: Deterministic behavior required Only Automation

• Higher reliability / availability in higher levels of automation

compared to manned aircraft (AFS and FMS level become partially fail operational)

Safety analysis: Guaranteed system performance & reliability under given conditions

Guarantee perform. @ lower cost and higher production volumes than aviation

Miniaturization – size, weight, energy consumption as additional problem




Challenges & Pains – cheap, fast and … safe? –

processes, methods and tools

Maximize automation based on rigid model based process

Achilles heel: traceability tool = „book keeper“ is missing

Areas of conflict

Minimization Constraints

(cost, weight, size,

energy consumption)

Component quality and quantity

(dedicated computers vs. multicore,

FOG vs. MEMS) vs.

requirement formalization & validation, simulation based component selection

Cheap and fast development guaranteed system performance

and guaranteed safety

model based development, requirements driven, advanced stochastic analysis

vs.

Lots of artefacts, proofs

and documents to provide small development teams vs.

Low cost components,

low modeling efforts

High safety and system

survivability

Smart, survivable functions: adaptive control

vs.




Conclusion

• Unmanned Aviation: low cost, shorter life-cycle, higher quantities

Classical Processes, Components and Solutions not appropriate

• Automotive: higher levels of automation, stricter requirements on safety and

reliability, if needed even fail operational for some time (x-by-wire)

• Resulting (NEW) challenges are same for both domains (as well as others):

deterministic, verifiable system development with guaranteed characteristics

(functional, operational, environmental, safety, security)

– Deterministic verification and proof of system properties

– No dedicated components: selection from off-the-shelf

– Production of Variants based on a common core (e.g. actuators)

– Safety critical – the mindset counts: don‘t develop for function but for malfunction

and failure. Always be defensive and simple.

– Big potential: process support with tools, model based approaches and simulation

– Not substitutable:

Testing with real hardware as early as possible, HIL, verification




Conclusion• Joint Problems across domains joint efforts to find joint solutions

• Mindset: Failure / Malfunction driven design approach

• Model-based design as basic philosophy –

tailor processes to domain specific certification / design assurance requirements

• Maximize Automation in Analysis: MBSA, Code Verification, Formal Methods,…

• Top down derivation of quantitative executable functional requirements

• Consideration of total system performance in stochastic manner –

including uncertainties, disturbances and faults / malfunctions

• Heavy utilization of simulation for component selection, early validation

• Use of advanced statistical methods and (counter) optimization to guarantee

characteristics and detect weaknesses

• Utilization of smart component families, optimizing the “fault tree”

• Implementation of redundant architectures for fail operational characteristics

• Use of smart adaptive control algorithms and graceful degradations to

accommodate failures and maximize survivability




Recruitment

• UAV System Developer for

– Embedded system development

– Real-time software development

– Ground control and user interface

– Guidance, Navigation and Control

• Office Manager and Secretary

• Please send your CV to [email protected]

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