orange county development briefing

Welcome to the Orange County

Development BriefingThursday, Oct. 23

Top of the Hill’s Great Room

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@carolinachamber#OCDB14

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Mark Zimmerman

Broker/OwnerRe/Max Winning Edge

Orange County Development Briefing

The Residential Real Estate Market

October 23, 2014Mark Zimmerman

All data provided by Triangle Multiple Listing Service and 10K Research and Marketing

2012 was a Good Year2013 was a Better Year

2014 What a difference a year makes.

2013

• Confident Trends• Good things up

– Closed Sales & Prices• Bad things down

– Days on Market, Inventory & Month’s Supply• Moving from Buyer’s to Seller’s Market

But 2014 . . .What Happened to Our Momentum?

SummaryTrends shifting in 2014

• Good things flattening or trending down– Closed sales and pricing

• Bad things flattening or trending up– Days on Market, Inventory & Month’s Supply

• But there’s another troubling trend– Orange is faring much worse

Summary 2014 YTD vs YA

Closed Sales

Ave Sales Price

Inventory Month’s Supply

Triangle +3.6% +3.8% -15.8% 5.9 ( 4.7

Durham +3.4% +4.1% -29.3% 5.2 ( 3.5

Chatham +5.7% +3.8% -6.1% 8.6 ( 7.1

Orange -15.5% -0.4% +5.1% 6.0 & 7.1

2014 YTD New Construction SalesGrowing Everywhere Except Orange

vs. YA % Total Sales

Triangle +4.7% 19.4% & 19.6%

Durham +4.9% 15.9% & 16.1%

Chatham +16.6% 28.6% & 31.5%

Orange -52.2% 13.7% ( 7.7%

New vs Resale Closed SalesSept, 2014 YTD

New20%

Resale80%

Triangle

New8%

Resale92%

Orange County

New31%

Resale69%

Chatham County

New16%

Resale84%

Durham County

Why?

• We are no longer as competitive– Aging inventory– High price of entry– Higher cost of living– Neighbors are improving quality of life

2014 Momentum Has Slowed

In Orange, it has Shifted

Dwight Bassett

Economic Development OfficerTown of Chapel Hill

Follow us @CHEconDev


1 2

3

4

5

> Developments in Chapel Hill

6


University Square- Moving toward construction –

> 300 Residential Units> 210,000 SF Office> 75,000 SF Retail

1


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New tool for Economic Development - Development Agreement -

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Glen Lennox- Approved –

> 1,500 Residential Units> 600,000 SF Office> 150,000 SF Retail> 150 Hotel rooms

2


Obey Creek- in consideration –

120 acres with a potential of 35 developed

> 600 Residential Units> 375,000 SF Office/Civic> 350,000 SF Retail> 130 Hotel rooms

3


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By-right and traditional rezoning

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Ephesus-Church/Fordham- Approved -

> 1,000 Residential Units> 350,000 SF Office> 250,000 SF Retail> 150 Hotel rooms

4


Edge Development(Eubanks Road)

- in consideration –

> 400 Residential Units> 100,000 SF Office> 120,000 SF Retail> 150+/- Hotel rooms

5


Central West (Small Area Plan)

- Approved –

6


Project Office Retail Residential * Units

123 W Franklin 120,000 55,000 240,000 300

Glen Lennox 600,000 150,000 1,200,000 1,500

Obey 225,000 400,000 560,000 700

Eph-Ford 350,000 250,000 800,000 1,000

Edge 100,000 120,000 320000 400

Central West 40,000 20,000 140000 175

TOTAL 1,435,000 995,000 3,260,000 4,075

* = average 800 SF per

Future Development


Now comes….

Economic Development!


Open.


Open.: Business: Livability and Lifestyle: Education: Innovation and Entrepreneurship

Web s

ite


Marketing:

1. Focus on sponsorship of regional events related to development and real estate.

2. Participate in regional organizations like; Urban Land Institute, Triangle Commercial Association of Realtors, and NAIOP

3. Expand marketing to continue to change perceptions of our market.


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T hank you!

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Craig Benedict

Director of Planning, Inspections and Public Transportation

Orange County

ORANGE COUNTYPLANNING

INSPECTIONSENGINEERING &

ORANGE PUBLIC TRANSIT

51

County Uses of Article 46 Sales Tax Since 2011

Econ. Dev. Uses of Article 46

Proposed Econ. Dev. Uses for FY 2012-2013

Elise Kohn

Senior Advisor and Program DirectorNorth Carolina Next Generation

Network (NCNGN)

http://ncngn.netDRAFT

Orange County Development Briefing

October 2014

Project Update

http://ncngn.net

Collaborating Municipalities and Universities

http://ncngn.net

Key goals and objectives of the RFP

• Create a gigabit fiber network to foster innovation, drive job creation, stimulate economic growth, and serve new areas of development in the community

• Use public-private assets to reduce the digital divide, enhance workforce knowledge and skills, promote economic development, enhance access for anchor institutions, and serve other targeted purposes

• Provide high speed internet at a substantial discount from current market prices

City Top Speed Price/mo. Provider

Kansas City 1 Gbps $70 Google

Austin 1 Gbps $70 AT&T, Google

NCNGN Cities 50 Mbps $65 (1yr promo rate) TWC

NCNGN residents pay the same or more for connections 5% as fast

http://ncngn.net

KC MN Wilson NC (TWC) NC (ATT) $-

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

Low TierMid-tierHigh Tier

45 – 60 Mbps15 – 20 Mbps

1 Gbps

Triangle and Triad broadband users pay more for less

3 - 5 Mbps

Cost ($ / Mb) of lowest, highest, and mid-speed broadband tiers

http://ncngn.net

Initial announcement spurs competitive offers

Kansas City

March 2011 – Google announces

plans to build

November 2012 – Google Fiber live in first neighborhoods

December 2012 – TWC announces 100Mbps

service only in KC

April 2013– Google announces plans to build

April 2013 – AT&T announces similar plans

just hours later

April 2013 – TWC announces plan to

speed up deployment of WiFi hotspots

December 2013 – AT&T begins

offering 300Mbps service with free

upgrade to 1Gbps in 2014

Austin

http://ncngn.net

2014 local announcements to date

February: Triangle being considered for

Google Fiber

March: RST Fiber planning gigabit

services for Triangle

April – June: NCNGN cities approve agreements for

AT&T Gigapower

July: TWC planning to upgrade Raleigh

Metro to TWC Maxx (300 Mbps)

Today: Frontier planning Gigabit service

in Durham

http://ncngn.net

What about the specifics?

• AT&T: Majority of build-out expected in 2015 – 2016

• Residential tiers up to 1 Gbps symmetrical

• Pricing TBA

• Google Fiber: Decision about deployment expected by end of year

• Additional timing and pricing details TBD

• TWC: Upgrades begin in 2015

• All speed tiers will be adjusted; current customers can expect free upgrades (e.g. 15 Mbps standard 50 Mbps standard; max = 300 Mbps)

• Frontier: TBA

• Service expected to be limited to Durham

http://ncngn.net

Overview of agreement with AT&T

• No cost to local municipalities or universities

• No set build-out requirements or price targets

• Community benefits:

• Up to 100 community centers will receive free gigabit service for 7 years

• Up to 10 low income MDUs will receive 3 Mbps service for 5 years

• All Chapel-Hill Housing Authority MDUs count as 1 MDU

• Up to 100 multi-tenant office buildings pre-wired with fiber and electronics

• Cities agree to try to make municipal processes more efficient (vendor-neutral) and memorialize existing practice of treating similarly situated vendors alike

http://ncngn.net

Next Gen Network: Opportunity to shape the future

• Next gen networks = foundation for continued virtuous cycle of innovation and economic development

HIGHLY-SKILLED,

EDUCATED WORKERS

INNOVATIVE APPLICATIONS

AND PRODUCTS

SUCCESSFUL BUSINESSES

One of the greatest benefits available today is the opportunity to shape and lead in in the economy tomorrow

http://ncngn.net

UTOPIA≥$300

Kansas City, KS & MOGoogle

$70Bristol, TN

Lafayette, LA$1,000

Chattanooga, TN$300

Orono, MEGWI$140Burlington, VT

$150 – 200

Cedar Falls, IA~$270

Minneapolis, MNUS Internet

$115

Seattle, WACondoInternet

$120 (MDU only)

Sebastopol & SF, CASonic.net (pilot)

Bristol, VA

Tullahoma & Clarksville, TN

≥$300

Monroe County, INSmithville

$394

Issaquah, WAHighlands Fiber Network

$200

SF Bay Area, CAPaxio$139

Chicago, ILGigabit Squared

Lansing, MIDTN Management

(MDU only)

Other communities in the gigabit game Feb. 2013

Pricing for stand-alone residential internet service with download speeds up to 1 Gb. May exclude additional charges for taxes, equipment, or other fees.

http://ncngn.net

Other communities in the gigabit game now

LEGEND

Res. GB service <$160 mo.

Limited coverage or res. service > $160/mo.

Planned Res. Gb service

Recently issued or announced plans for RFI/RFP or Google Study

AustinGoogle , AT&T

Grande$65 - 100

Chattanooga$70

Wilson$155

OronoGWI$140Burlington

$150 – 200Springfield

Vtel$35

MinneapolisUS Internet

$115

SeattleCondoInternet

$120 (MDU only)

Sebastopol & SFSonic.net (pilot) Provo

Google$70

UTOPIA≥$65

Kansas City, KS & MO+ 16 others

Google$70

OmahaCenturyLink

(pilot)$150

Pricing for stand-alone residential internet with download speeds up to 1 Gbps. Prices as advertised on provider websites or other publicly available sources as of 12/11/2013. May exclude additional charges for taxes, equipment, or other fees. Does not reflect plans for Anchorage, AK and cities throughout NC announced by GCI and RST Fiber, respectively.

Hattiesburg + 8, MSC-Spire

$80

Carbondale, ILFrontier

Longmont$50

Smithville & La Grange, TX

LiveAirNetworks$75

SF Bay AreaPaxio$139

Las VegasCenturylink

$150

ChicagoAT&T

College Station

Los Angeles

Louisville

LansingDTN Management

(MDU only)

Dallas/ Ft. WorthAT&T

TampaBright House

SummervilleHome Telephone

CincinnatiCincinnati Bell

Portland

Salt Lake City

Phoenix

San JoseAT&T

San AntonioAT&T

AtlantaAT&T

Nashville

CharlotteAT&T

Raleigh-DurhamAT&T

St. Louis, MOAT&T

HoustonAT&T

MiamiAT&T

Winston-Salem/Greensboro

AT&T

JacksonvilleAT&T

http://ncngn.net

How can we further distinguish the region?

• Create/utilize civic infrastructure needed to help region take advantage of gigabit networks

o Accelerate gigabit applications

o Digital inclusion

• Consider how networks can advance other regional priorities

• Promote availability of networks at specific properties and across the region

• Continue to foster local competition among providers

Jack Smyre

The Design ResponseLloyd Farm

Lloyd Farm

The Design Response

Jack L. Smyre, PE, AICP

Orange County Development BriefingOctober 23, 2014

Carrboro, NC

*

Vicinity Map

Site

Market Area West

Area Map

Illustrative Site Plan

Charettes – Nov/Dec 2011

U-shaped retail w/ one-stop parking

Lloyd Farm – Plaza AreaApproximate size 0.37 AC

Compared with the Weaver Street Market lawn @ 0.30 AC & the Southern Village Lawn@ 0.56 AC

Retail Plaza – Lot 1View from Public Street

Retail Plaza – Lot 1View from Parking Lot

Oak GroveApproximate size 0.50 AC

Existing tree stand with lawn.

Oak Grove

Approximate size 0.30 AC

Existing oak tree stand near former homestead location.

Site Cross Section

Enlargement Showing Apartments

Apartments at Lloyd FarmView from Hwy. 54

Image by Risden McElroy

Apartments at Lloyd FarmView from James Street

Apartments at Lloyd FarmView from Merchants Way

Pedestrian Access & Circulation

Community (Town/County) Benefits• Shopping and employment center with low impact on local roads

• Sales tax revenue for Orange County

• $90M - $100M addition to the property tax base

• $1.1M Affordable housing payment-in-lieu (15% of base units)

• $400K in school impact fees

• Extension of bike / walk system between West Main Street and Old Fayetteville Road

• Diverse sustainable housing w/decked parking on small footprint

• Mixed-use center with 30% preserved open space

The Graduate

Jay PatelWintergreen Hospitality

Village Plaza Apartments

Lee PerryEast West Partners

Orange County Development Briefing 2014

Building Plans

The Edge

The EdgeAddress: 3000 Eubanks RoadDeveloper: Northwood Ravin Property owner: Park West Investors, Morris IV Acres: 53.8Buildings: 18 to 24 buildings, 44 to 90 feet tallResidential: Between 400 and 700 units Affordable housing: 50 units proposedCommercial: Between 140,000 and 416,000 square feetOffice: Between 60,000 and 270,000 square feetOpen Space: Village Square and two greenway trails Hotel: up to 250 roomsZoning: Mixed-use Office/Industrial, Mixed-Use ResidentialCurrent property value: Roughly $3.1 millionProjected Post Development Value: $100+ million

Q&AFacilitated by Aaron Nelson

Life In The Fast Lane:High Speed Fiber in the Triangle

7:30-10:00 a.m., Thursday, Nov. 13 at DoubleTree in RTP

Tweet: #TriFiber Register: bit.ly/TriFiber

Business Hall of Fame Gala6:30-9:30 p.m., Nov. 13 at The Carolina Inn

Tickets and information: carolinachamber.org/halloffame

Celebrating the Pillars of Our Community

Susie & Bynum Weaver Al Pons Eunice Brock

Bob Nutter Mary & Maurice Julian Sandy McClamroch

Come to a unique Business After Hours,co-hosted by The Carolina Inn and Chapel Hill Magazine.Purchase a table display and get your brand out there!

Business After Hours & Mini Expo5:30-7:30 p.m., Nov. 20 at The Carolina Inn

Salute to Community Heroes 6:00-8:00 p.m., Dec. 11, at University Mall

Nominate Your Hero!• Citizen of the Year• Town & Gown Award• Jim Gibson Volunteer of the Year• Irene Briggaman Lifetime

Achievement Award

Nominations due Nov. 19carolinachamber.org/salute

Early Voting Begins TodayNC State Board of Elections: www.ncsbe.gov

Early Voting Begins Today

More info: www.ncsbe.gov

Thank you, briefing sponsors!