organic tree fruit: growing, growing,...
TRANSCRIPT
Organic Tree Fruit: Growing,
Growing, Gone? David GranatsteinElizabeth Kirby
Washington State UniversityWenatchee, WA
• Fruit consumption trends• Fruit production trends• Economics
TOPICS
05
1015202530
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Org
anic
Foo
d Sa
les
(Bil
$)Growth of US Organic Food Sales
Consumer Demand
1%
Source: OTA, Nutrition Business Journal
4%
Fruits & vegetables = 37% of sales
projected
2008 - 3.5% of all food sales
Market Share of OrganicFood and Fruit, 2007
Organic share of food market (%)
All food Fruit
Austria 5.4 7.1Germany 2.7 5.6Switzerland 4.6 5.4
Source: FiBL Survey based on data from Bio Austria, AC Nielsen/ZMP/BOELW and Bio Suisse.
Leading organic fruit: apple, orange, banana, mango
27
30
32
32
34
37
37
38
40
41
46
49
53
54
55
59
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Frozen foods
Fresh prepared
Yogurt
Canned fruit/veg
Other dairy
Juice
Cold cereal
Coffee
Breads
Soymilk
Eggs
Milk
Baby food
Meat/poultry
Fresh vegetables
Fresh fruit
Hartman, 2008
Consumers Willingto Pay 30% More for Organic
# 1
Percent
0102030405060
Tropical Temperate Total
kg/p
erso
n/yr
1975 1985 1995 2005
U.S. Consumption of Fresh Fruit
(USDA-ERS, 2008)
% of total US fresh fruit consumption
Rank Fruit 2005 1995 1985
1 Banana 20.7 23.0 22.32 Melon 19.3 20.1 20.83 Apple 14.9 15.4 15.84 Orange 9.1 9.7 11.25 Grape 6.5 5.8 6.06 Strawberry ↑ 4.4 3.2 2.67 Pineapple ↑ 3.8 1.5 1.38 Peach/nectarine ↓ 3.8 4.3 4.99 Avocado ↑ 2.6 1.3 1.4
10 Pear ↓ 2.3 2.7 2.5Source: USDA ERS, 2008.
Top 10 Fresh Fruits Consumed in the U.S.
Tree Fruit and Nut Production
Global Organic FruitArea by Specific Crop, 2007
(C+T)
2.7
2.8
11.4
33.6
33.8
37.9
45.3
121.8
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Fruit, other
Strawberry
Other Berry
Fruit NS
Stone Fruit
Pome Fruit
Fruit/nuts/berries NS
Grapes
Hectares (X1000)28% of ha are NS
Apple Pear Sweet Cherry
Walnut Almond
US 20,009 2,145 2,061 4,321 4,937WA 13,055 1,319 1,497 7 --CA 3,192 212 380 4,279 4,934OR 136 344 276 -- --AZ 1,023 -- 0 0 --CO 426 -- 27 0 0MT 20 -- 34 -- 0NM 66 4 13 0 --
NV 55 0 0 0 0
UT 48 -- -- 0 0
Organic Tree Fruit and NutsWestern U.S. 2008
Data: USDA-ERS, USDA NASS; 2008
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
USA West WA East/Midwest
Estimated U.S. Organic Apple Trend
Based on combined data from WSDA, ERS, CDFA AZ Apple Growers Assoc., QAI and OTCO; * same data for 2008 and 2009, except WA and CA
US Total*
Washington State
East/Midwest*
West*
Acres
Organic = 4.6% of US apple acresWest = >95% of area
CA
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Acre
s
Certified Transitional
Organic Apple AreaWashington State
15,735ac = 10% of WA apple bearing acreage (based on 2008 WA-NASS estimate of 153,000 acres)
AlarMD
$ drop Wal-Mart
Combined certifiers data
$ drop
$ drop
California Organic Tree Fruit AcresCalifornia Dept of Food and Agriculture
Based on raw CDFA data
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Acr
es
Apple Stone Fruit Pear (Euro & Asian)
Organic grapes 23,000 ac
California Organic Stone Fruit AcresCalifornia Dept of Food and Agriculture
Based on raw CDFA data
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Acr
es
Prune/Plum Peach Nectarine Apricot Cherry
Organic Pear AcreageWashington State
2009 = 8% of total WA pear acreage (based on 2008 WA-NASS estimate of 24,000 acres)
Combined certifiers data; 2009 WSDA only
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Acre
s
Certified Transition
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Acre
s
Certified Transition
Organic Cherry AcreageWashington State
2009 = 7% of total WA cherry area (based on 2008 WA-NASS estimate of 34,300 acres)
Combined certifiers data
U.S. organic tart cherries
264 ac
GF-120
Organic Tree Nuts
% of allCA acres acres
Walnut 4279 1.8
Almond 4934 0.6
CA has 99% of organic walnut and almondacres in US
Hazelnut/filbert (US) 154 acOR/WA had 9 of 32 farms
Economics
¥
$₣ ₧
€£
€€
$
$
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$/bo
x FO
B
organic conventional
Apple Price Trends
Gala
Fuji
Organic
Conv} price premium
WAGCHA data; FOB average, all storage, grades, sizes, domestic & export
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$/bo
x FO
B
organic conventional
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$ /b
ox F
OB
organic conventional
Pear Price Trends
Bartlett
D’Anjou
Org
Conv
WAGCHA data; FOB avg, all storage, grades, sizes, dom & exp
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$/bo
x FO
B
organic conventional
How would you compare the cost of productionfor organic tree fruit to similar conventional production?
1. 20
% or m
ore...
2. 10
% lower
i...
3. Sim
ilar
4. 10
% highe
r ...
5. 20
% or m
ore...
5%
15%
55%
18%
7%
1. 20% or more lower in organic2. 10% lower in organic3. Similar4. 10% higher in organic5. 20% or more higher in
organic
Jan. 2010 Grower Survey
Was organic fruit production profitablefor you for the 2008 crop?
Yes No
57%
43%1. Yes2. No
Jan. 2010 Grower Survey
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Gala Fuji Red
Golden
Honey
Crisp
Braeb
urn
Pink La
dy
1000
box
es
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Year-to-Date WAOrganic Apple Sales
WSDA compliance data
Question 1a.What is the most serious problem you face inorganic tree fruit production?
1. N
ew va
rietie
s / ro
otstock
2. In
sect
manag
emen
t
3. D
iseas
e con
trol
4. Tr
ee nutr
ition
5. W
eed co
ntrol
6. C
rop lo
ad m
anag
emen
t
7. Fr
uit qu
ality
8. E
cono
mics
9. P
ost h
arve
st iss
ues
3%
29%
8%
12%
1%
8%
5%
10%
23%
1. New varieties / rootstock2. Insect management3. Disease control4. Tree nutrition5. Weed control6. Crop load management7. Fruit quality8. Economics9. Post harvest issues
Question 13a.Choose your highest priority for organic treefruit research.
1. C
rop l
oad m
...
2. Post
harves..
.
3. D
iseas
e con...
4. Eco
nomics
5. W
eed contro
...
6. N
ew va
rieti..
.
7. O
rganic
sys...
8. Tree
nutrit...
9. In
sect
mana..
.
10. F
ruit q
ual...
5%
1%
7% 6%
1%
49%
8%8%
1%
16%
1. Crop load management2. Post harvest issues3. Disease control4. Economics5. Weed control6. New varieties / rootstock7. Organic systems site8. Tree nutrition9. Insect management10. Fruit quality
Rank the 3 most difficult insect peststo control in organic apple production(with the worst first).
Rosy
apple
aph...
Stink b
ug
Mite
s
Woolly
apple
a...
Codlin
g moth
Thrips
Lygus b
ug
Leaf r
oller
San Jose S
cale
Gree
n aphid
13%
6%
9%
22%
4%2%
5%
1%
6%
32%
1. Rosy apple aphid2. Stink bug 3. Mites4. Woolly apple aphid5. Codling moth6. Thrips7. Lygus bug8. Leaf roller9. San Jose Scale10. Green aphid
Future Outlook • Organic trees fruits and nuts:
- market will still grow- there is a ceiling- price premiums likely to decline
• Research to help lower costs, risks; increase yield and quality- insect pests a priority
• Organic system constraints offerunique research opportunities- e.g. GF-120 for cherry fruit fly
• Western states a premier regionfor organic fruits, nuts; needsupport to remain competitive,to deal with new pests