Orienting Ourselves in Free Fall

“We’re under attack from all sides.”

“So get ready for enormous change.”

Claudio SanchezNPR

Shai ReshefUniversity of the

People

Sebastian Thrun

“In fifty years there will be only ten institutions in the world delivering higher education.

“Udacity has a shot at being one of them.”

Wired MagazineMarch 20, 2012

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what we

teach

whom we

teach

how we fund

what we teach

what we teach lawmedicinetheology

agriculturebusinessengineeringteaching

much more

Jobs have become moreintellectually demanding.

lawmedicinetheology

agriculturebusinessengineeringteaching

much more

Jobs have become moreintellectually demanding.

what we teachportion of U.S. jobs requiring at least a two-year degree

197328%

201845%

Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce

“Organizations are looking for employees to use a broader set of skills and have higher levels of learning and knowledge than in the past.”

89%

rising expectations of employers

Source: Raising the Bar, Hart Research Associates

197328%

“Organizations are looking for employees to use a broader set of skills and have higher levels of learning and knowledge than in the past.”

coordinationcomplexity

“Organizations are looking for employees to use a broader set of skills and have higher levels of learning and knowledge than in the past.”

what we teachwage premium for skilled labor

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

37%

49%59%

48%

66%

78% 81%

what we teachwage premium for skilled labor

wage premium for skilled labor

Claudia GoldinLawrence KatzHarvard University

relative change in supply and demand since 1970 2%average annual growth1.5%

average annual growth

81%

89%

whom we teachdemand

81%

whom we teach1970top 26%

2009top 41%

enrollment rates of 18- to 24-year-olds in degree-granting institutions

enrollment by Hispanics, African-Americans, and Asians:

enrollment by students eligible for financial aid:

15% 19%

1976 1990 2009

34%

30%

1976

46%

1990 2009

66%

Source: National Center for Education Statistics

San Diego State

Cal State Long Beach

CSU, Chico

whom we teach

“It’s in the water.

And getting it there is a lot of hard work.”

John HammangAASCU“There is no one

‘magic bullet’ that guarantees success.

“Success instead means aligning people

and programs, and making a collective

commitment to be in it for the long haul.”

how we fundhow we fund

how we fund whom we teach(harder)

what we teach(harder)

what we

teach

whom we

teach

how we fund

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

2010$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers

public appropriation per FTE

tuition and fees per FTE

increasing cost for public students

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20100%

20%

40%

60%

percent of revenue supported by tuition

23.18%

43.15%

increasing cost for public students

how we fund

increasing cost for public students

increasing debt for all students

- higher than previously estimated- increases caused by:

- rising tuition- delayed entry into weak job market- higher interest rates as defaults rise

- could slow housing recovery

Source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

how we fund

increasing cost for public students

increasing debt for all students

2009 median expenditures per FTE per institutionSource: Delta Cost Project

$7,821physical plantdebt serviceemployee benefits $15,636

education andrelated expenses

Jane V. WellmanDelta Cost Project

National Association of System Heads

Restructuring costs means making “permanent reductions in spending in areas that don’t contribute to performance.”

“The derived Education and Related Expense category is our single most important cost metric.”

structural constraints

Richard Vedder

Center for College Affordability

and Productivity

“The public simply

will not continue to

provide billions of

dollars without an

adequate answer to

the question of

what we are getting

in return.”

national exasperation

increasing cost for public students

increasing debt for all students

Jane V. WellmanDelta Cost Project

National Association of System Heads

structural constraints“Higher education can't be a luxury.

It's an economic imperative that every family in America should be

able to afford.”

“Let me put colleges and universities on notice: If you can't stop tuition

from going up, the funding you get from taxpayers will go down.”

State of the Union, January 24, 2012

how we fund

how we fund

what we

teach

whom we

teach

sources of inflexibility

sources of inflexibility

1. fear of falling

“There are few bottom-linemeasures analogous to profitor return on investment forassessing an institution’sstanding or establishing its competitive advantage.

“Under these conditions, the managementof image becomes particularly important.”

Adrianna KazarUniversity of Southern California

“There are few bottom-linemeasures analogous to profitor return on investment forassessing an institution’sstanding or establishing its competitive advantage.

“Under these conditions, the managementof image becomes particularly important.”

Sophia Gilliat-RayCardiff University

“Older universities represent continuity, stability, prestige,

longevity, traditions, and 'reputation'.

“However, the ethos that results from these

assumptions and ideas are implicitly (and sometimes

even explicitly) hostile . . .”

sources of inflexibility

1. fear of falling

4. student mobility

3. rampant automation

2. unchecked growth

50,000

20,000,000fall 2006 cohort

2,803,472

67% never transferred

24% transferred

once

5%3%

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

sources of inflexibility

1. fear of falling

4. student mobility

3. rampant automation

2. unchecked growth

sources of inflexibility:

fear of falling

unchecked growth

rampant automation

student mobility

Unsustainablestatus quo:

what we teach

whom we teach

how we fundincreasing cost for publicsincreasing debt for allstructural constraintsnational exasperation

Blombos Cave excavationSouth Africa, 75,000 BCE

Christopher HenshilwoodInstitute of Human Evolution

University of the WitwatersrandJohannesburg

“For me, what is really important is here, for the first time, really, ever, we have evidence that people can store information outside of the human brain.”

store information outside of the human brain

constants in education:

- practical- outcomes-oriented- social

learning communities

undergraduate research

service learning

learning communities

High-Impact Practices

undergraduate research

service learning - practical

- outcomes-oriented- social

learning communities

undergraduate research

service learning - practical

- outcomes-oriented- social

traditional academic records

folioCI

learning communities

undergraduate research

service learning - practical

- outcomes-oriented- social

traditional academic records

F So J Se0-30 30-60 60-90 90-120

-90-120 - 60-90 - 30-60 - 0-30

folioCI

Orienting Ourselves in Free Fall

1. pick three convictions

- practical- outcomes-oriented- social

1. pick three convictions2. condone innovation

Orienting Ourselves in Free Fall

1. pick three convictions2. condone innovation3. network

1. pick three convictions2. condone innovation3. network

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