orlando msa market overview *covid-19 special …...aug 21, 2020 · state and the nation, the...
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LAST UPDATED: August 21, 2020Phoebe Fleming, Director of Research
ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW*COVID-19 SPECIAL EDITION*
Orlando MSA Market Overview – COVID-19 Special Edition
• The US economy experienced the “sharpest contraction in modern American history” in Q2 based on new estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth declined at an annual rate of 32.9% in Q2, due to stay at home orders and reduced spending and investment. Annualized rates, how GDP numbers are typically reported, can over or understate impacts in volatile times. Overall, the U.S. economy was 9.5 percent smaller compared to Q2 of 2019.
• This special edition of the Orlando MSA Market Overview analyzes select, high-frequency, labor market indicators, published with a one-month lag, that will signal worsening or better employment outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.
orlando.org/covid19
orlando.org/covid19
High Frequency Indicators to Watch – Orlando MSA
Unemployment Rate
Monthly
New Claims for Unemployment
Insurance
Weekly
Month to Month Employment Change
Monthly
15.3%-0.8% MoM
7,431-17.5% WoW
Week of July 25July
61,400Total Employment Change
+5.4% MoM-9.0% YoY
June-July
Weekly
4,390-40.4% WoW
August 15
MoM = Month-over-month WoW = Week-over-week
YoY = Year-over-yearSource: US Dept of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass
1. 2. 3. 4.
Week to Week Job Postings
orlando.org/covid19
1) Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Next Update: National August Data – Sept. 4
Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for July is 10.2% with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggesting it could be up to 1 point higher due to a misclassification of “absent” workers. The noted, possible rate from the BLS is included on the gray, dashed line.
15.3
10.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June July
Rat
e
Unemployment Rate, NSA2019-2020
Orlando USA USA Possible Rate
orlando.org/covid19
1) Unemployment Rate - Counties
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Next Update: August data released September 18
10.5
12.4
16.1
20.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June July
Rat
e
Unemployment Rate, NSA2019-2020
Seminole Lake Orange Osceola
orlando.org/covid19
2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
Source: US Dept of Labor
Next Update: Data released weekly
6,867,000
1,106,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1/4/2020 2/4/2020 3/4/2020 4/4/2020 5/4/2020 6/4/2020 7/4/2020 8/4/2020
New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, USAJan. 2020- Aug. 15,2020
506,670
66,322
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1/4/2020 2/4/2020 3/4/2020 4/4/2020 5/4/2020 6/4/2020 7/4/2020 8/4/2020
New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, FloridaJan. 2020- Aug. 15, 2020
607
35,595
56,030
36,453
28,548
11,307
7,721
10,256 9,006 7,431
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 4-Jul 11-Jul 18-Jul 25-Jul
New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando MSAMarch 7- July 25, 2020
Weekly Data 3 Week Moving Average
orlando.org/covid19
2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Next Update: Data released every two weeks
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 4-Jul 11-Jul 18-Jul 25-Jul
New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando CountiesMarch 7 - July 25, 2020
Orange Osceola Seminole Lake
orlando.org/covid19
2) New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
orlando.org/covid19
3) Month to Month Job Change - By Industry
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Next Update: August data released September 18
-100-3,100
0 0 200 600
-400
2004,400 2,900
56,600
-600
700
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Min
ing
and
Logg
ing
Cons
truc
tion
Man
ufac
turin
g
Tr
ansp
orta
tion,
War
ehou
sing,
and
Util
ities
W
hole
sale
Tra
de
Re
tail
Trad
e
Info
rmat
ion
Fina
ncia
l Act
iviti
es
Prof
essio
nal a
nd B
usin
ess S
ervi
ces
Educ
atio
n an
d He
alth
Ser
vice
s
Leisu
re a
nd H
ospi
talit
y
Oth
er S
ervi
ces
Tota
l Gov
ernm
ent
1- Month Change in EmploymentJune-July 2020 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
4) Job Postings – Time Series Analysis
orlando.org/covid19
7,856
5,303
4,736
4,226 4,219
3,507 3,718
4,634 4,281 4,107
5,475 5,4795,726
6,221
7,430
5,385
4,368
6,001 5,925
5,556
7,359
4,390
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Total Online Job AdsOrlando MSA, by Week Posted
Source: Burning Glass
orlando.org/covid19 Source: Burning Glass
4) Job Postings – Top Industries
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Top 10 Posting IndustriesOrlando MSA, by Week Posted
Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services
Retail Trade Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Finance and Insurance Manufacturing
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Information
Educational Services Transportation and Warehousing
2,427
2,309
2,299
1,759
1,591
1,292
1,213
1,205
1,004
982
974
926
909
798
783
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Registered Nurse
Retail Sales Associate
Sales Representative
Customer Service Representative
Tractor-Trailer Truck Driver
Retail Store Manager / Supervisor
Software Developer / Engineer
Office / Administrative Assistant
Laborer / Warehouse Worker
Building and General Maintenance Technician
Physician
Security Officer
Food Service Team Member
Janitor / Cleaner
Restaurant / Food Service Manager
Jobs in Greatest DemandOrlando MSA, Last 90 Days Ending August 19, 2020
4) Job Postings – Top Jobs in Demand
orlando.org/covid19 Source: Burning-Glass
878
757
681
521
500
401
346
310
231
205
197
172
161
157
153
0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Adventhealth
Lockheed Martin Corporation
Orlando Regional Healthcare
Lowe's Companies, Inc
Anthem Blue Cross
Orange County Public Schools
School District Of Osceola County
Hospital Corporation of America
Deloitte
Allied Universal
Healthcare Travelers
Walmart / Sam's
The Gypsy Nurse
CVS Health
Osceola Regional Medical Center
Employers With Most Job OpeningsOrlando MSA, Last 90 Days Ending August 19, 2020
4) Job Postings – Top Employers
orlando.org/covid19 Source: Burning Glass
Key Takeaways
• In July, the USA unemployment rate fell modestly to 10.2% while Florida saw an increase to a rate of 11.5%. Higher than both theState and the Nation, the Orlando MSA unemployment rate did at least fall 0.8 percentage points to 15.3% (slide 4). Orange, Osceola and Lake County all saw a decrease in their unemployment rate while Seminole was the only county to see a slight increase (slide 5). This fall is due to 61,400 jobs added in the region from June to July, mainly in the Leisure and Hospitalityindustry (slide 9). Jobs were also added within Professional and Business Services and Educational and Heath Services. Construction, however, was the only industry to experience a significant loss of jobs in the Orlando MSA, with total employment declining by more than 3,000 from June to July.
• New claims for unemployment insurance saw an increase in both Florida and the USA (slide 6). Although number of USA claims had fallen below 1 million last week since it was first recorded at 2.9 million in late March, claims this week increased to over 1 million. Overall, in Florida there has been a large drop in new claims for unemployment insurance since July 11th. For the first time in weeks, Florida saw an increase in claims the week ending August 15th. In the Orlando MSA, claims for unemployment are slowly declining, with a three-week moving average of roughly 9,000 claims per week. However, the most recent claims data available at the county level was posted July 25th by the FL Department of Economic Opportunity.
• Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. In the most recent week, job postings saw asharp decrease of forty percent. Slide 11 shows this information broken out by top industries. Posting activity declined in retail trade, education and health care, the major contributor to movements in overall posting activity. Employers in the public education and hospital and health care industries continue to be the major job posters in the region. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze.