our ecological footprint - massachusetts institute of ...web.mit.edu/2.813/www/class slides...
TRANSCRIPT
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Our Ecological Footprint
2.83/2.813T.G. Gutowski
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FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary Monday Monday Monday Monday WednesdayWednesdayWednesdayWednesday6. Introduction
11. Eco-Footprint 13. Scale, Flow and Cycles(Tues) 19. Sustainability? 20. Intro to LCA
25. Energy/Exergy 27. End-of-lifeMarchMarchMarchMarch
3. Visitor 5. Remanufacturing10. Recycling 12. “Coal” discussion17. Discussion 19. Quiz 124. (Spring Break) 26. (Spring Break)31. LCA
AprilAprilAprilApril 2. Scale and Efficiency7. Materials Production 9. Manufacturing14. Manufacturing 16. Manufacturing21. Patriots Day 23. Visitor28. Visitor 30. Presentations
MayMayMayMay 5. Presentations 7. Field Trip12. Review 14. Quiz 2
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Outline:Outline:Outline:Outline:
� IPAT Eq� Ecological Footprint� Carbon Accounting� Environmental Life Style Analysis (ELSA)
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Partitioning the ProblemPartitioning the ProblemPartitioning the ProblemPartitioning the Problem
Production Consumption
Earth
General Motors You
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Readings from Webpage� Eco-Footprint� a) link for the footprint quiz: http://www.rprogress.org/� b) Wackernagel, M., N. B. Schulz, D. Deumling, A. C. Linares, M. Jenkins,
V. Kapos, C. Monfreda, J. Lohl, N. Myers, R. Norgaard, and J. Randers. 2002. Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy. Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences. July 9, 2002, vol. 99, no.14 pp 9266 � 9271, Washington, DC. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/99/14/9266
� If the above link does not work go the PNAS home page, then archives etc. http://www.pnas.org/
c) review Ch 1 & 2 Smil� Additional Readings:
i) I.C. Pentice, IPCC Report, The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (click here for PDF)
� ii) Stuart Pimm, A Scientist Audits the Earth (handout on request)� iii) York, Rosa, Dietz, The Ecological Footprint Intensity of National
Economies, J. Ind. Ecology, Vol. 8, No. 4, pp 139-154, 2005. (Use VERA)
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Please Do YourEcological Footprinthttp://www.rprogress.org/
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�Overhead�
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Wackernagel�s paper and worksheet
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/99/14/9266http://www.pnas.org/content/vol0/issue2002/imag
es/data/142033699/DC1/0336DataSet.xls
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Table 1. Summary of equivalence factors,
humanity's area demands, and earth's biological capacity in 1999 (per capita)
Average global area demand (per capita)
Existing global biocapacity (per capita)
Area Equivalence
factor, gha/ha Total demand, ha (per capita)
Equivalent total, gha (per capita)
World area, ha (per capita)
Equivalent total, gha (per capita)
Growing crops 2.1 0.25 0.53 0.25 0.53 Grazing animals 0.5 0.21 0.10 0.58 0.27 Harvesting timber 1.3 0.22 0.29 0.65 0.87 Fishing 0.4 0.40 0.14 0.39 0.14 Accommodating infrastructure 2.2 0.05 0.10 0.05 0.10 Fossil fuel and nuclear energy 1.3 0.86 1.16 0.00 0.00 Total 2.33 1.91 1.91
To make aggregation reflect differences in bioproductivity, areas are expressed in standardized global hectares (gha), which correspond to hectares with world average bioproductivity.
Wackernagel�s Results
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Copyright ©2002 by the National Academy of Sciences
Wackernagel, Mathis et al. (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99, 9266-9271
No Caption Found
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Copyright ©2002 by the National Academy of Sciences
Wackernagel, Mathis et al. (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99, 9266-9271
No Caption Found
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OutlineOutlineOutlineOutline
� How much land is there?� What do we do with this land?� The production of biomass, NPP� The sequestration of carbon, NEP� Lifestyle and Product footprints� National accounts
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2R
R ≈ 6370 kmSurface area =4πR2 = 510 X 106 km2
71% Oceans29% Land = 148 Mkm2 = 14.8Gha(one hectare = 100mX100mone hectare = 2.47 acres)
There are 13.1 Gha not covered by water or ice.
13.1/6.5 = 2 ha per person on earth
(5 acres per person)
How much room is there?
Is there anybody else hereon earth besides us?
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What do we do with this land?
deserts crops
wetlandsforests
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grass land and cows
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wilderness and built-up
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Albers Projection (equal area)showing croplands and cities
in Pimm, 2001
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Net Primary Productivity
NPP = GPP � Ra
GPP = Gross Primary Productivity(Photosynthesis)
Ra = autotrophic respiration
2612622 666 OOHCOHCO +→+
2612622 666 OOHCOHCO +←+
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The Carbon Cycle
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CO2 concentration in the atm
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How do you measure NPP?
� buckets in the woods
� students with clippers
� satellites, see e.g. http://asnerlab.stanford.edu/index.shtml
1kg/m2
dry mass
after Pimm
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Area, biomass, productivity
from John Harte
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estimate of NPP
from John Harte
Note, Pimm�s crude estimate would give(1kg/m2 =0.45kgC/m2=4.5tC/ha) x 13.1Gha = 59 GtC
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Earth Land Accounts (excluding Antartica) Ref. Pimm 2004
Note: Pimm uses (2.2:1) dry mass to carbonthis gives NPP = 52 Gt(C)
52115131Totals
.922004Other
1.94.220021�too dry�
--8�too cold�
1.22.613002Wet lands
5.712.550025Grass lands
11.625.5170015Corp lands
2044100044Other forests
10.924200012Rain forests
NPPGt C
NPPGt (dry mass)
Productivityton (dry mass)/km2
Area106 km2
Land Classiciation(after Olson)
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Carbon sequestration
NPP � Rh
Rh = heterotrophic respiration
� see websites at Oak Ridge National Labs� http://csite.ornl.gov/
� http://cdiac.ornl.gov/home.html
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Details of Canada�s Carbon
Carbon budget of Canada's forestsfrom 1895 to 1996. Also included isthe record of Canada's green-housegas carbon emission rate.
Integrated Terrestrial EcosystemC-budget model
http://ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca/optic/coarse/beps/nep_e.php
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World carbon emissions = C
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Wackernagel�s Energy Area
Note: there are some small differences in worksheet Vs paper
Anthropogenic carbon = 6.3 GtC (1999)
Nuclear (7% of world) add 0.5GtC
Carbon sequestration/yr Giga � �global� hectares
∴
GhaGhahatC
landtoGtC 6.634.19.495.0
69.08.6 =×=×
Equivalence Factor for Forests
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Wackernagel�s result
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Table 1. Summary of equivalence factors,
humanity's area demands, and earth's biological capacity in 1999 (per capita)
Average global area demand (per capita)
Existing global biocapacity (per capita)
Area Equivalence
factor, gha/ha Total demand, ha (per capita)
Equivalent total, gha (per capita)
World area, ha (per capita)
Equivalent total, gha (per capita)
Growing crops 2.1 0.25 0.53 0.25 0.53 Grazing animals 0.5 0.21 0.10 0.58 0.27 Harvesting timber 1.3 0.22 0.29 0.65 0.87 Fishing 0.4 0.40 0.14 0.39 0.14 Accommodating infrastructure 2.2 0.05 0.10 0.05 0.10 Fossil fuel and nuclear energy 1.3 0.86 1.16 0.00 0.00 Total 2.33 1.91 1.91
To make aggregation reflect differences in bioproductivity, areas are expressed in standardized global hectares (gha), which correspond to hectares with world average bioproductivity.
Wackernagel�s Results
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Alternative Diets
� According to Pimm, the biomass from cropland for human food is about ½ of what is used for animals. Furthermore the average diet calories come 5/6 from crops and 1/5 from animal. Since animals also use grazing land this makes meat about 3 times more land intensive in terms of global hectares (even more so for actual hectares).
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Alternative Diets (using global hectares)
1 Gha (crops) for food + [2 Gha (crops) + 0.6 Gha(grazing)] to feed animals = 3.6 Gha
average diet affluent diet85% plants 65% plant15% animals 35% animals2250 kcal 3250 kcal3.6Gha Vs 10Gha1.2Gha (vegan) Vs 10Gha
note, does not include transportation, nor processing
ref. Pimm 2001, Smil 2006, Wackernagel 2002
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Land to Sequester C
We use 27%,But are only
5% ofpopulation
U.S. Energy
World Energy EJJGpeopleperson
GJ 5.357105.3575.655 18 =×=×
EJGpeopleperson
GJ 5.973.0325 =×
∴
%5 5.63.0 %;27
5.3575.97
⇒⇒
ha/person 6 0.3Gpeople
1.8Gha
hectares)(global 1.8Gha0.276.6Gha
=
=×
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Footprint for An Automobile
Sequestion Area
OctaneC8H18
Assume
yrgalgalmile
yrmile /480/25
/000,12 =
368.0cm
ggasoline
=ρ )(235.168.03785480
3785785.31
3
3
3
metrictcm
ggalcmgal
cmlitresgal
=××
==
gasolinecarbon842.0
11496
18128128 ==+×
×
ture)infrastrucnor mfg. includenot does(
93.03.165.01.1/95.0
842.0235.1 hahatchatc
t =××⇒×
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Energy used to heat home using 800 gallons of fuel oil/year
hectares global 1.23.16.195.0
65.3.2
3.2856.09.03785800 3
3
haha
hatC
tC
tCgOIL
gCcm
ggalcmgal
=×⇒×
=×××
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Who uses what
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Natomo Family in Mali, March 27, 2003
MATERIAL WORLD, Peter Menzel
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The Skeen Family, Pearland TX, August 1993
MATERIAL WORLD, Peter Menzel
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Criticism of the EF
� Bjorn Lomborg / The Economist� Journal of Ecological Economics� E. O. Wilson
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Environmental Life Style Environmental Life Style Environmental Life Style Environmental Life Style Analysis (ELSA)Analysis (ELSA)Analysis (ELSA)Analysis (ELSA)****
� developed in 2007 class 2.83/2.813� estimate spending in different categories� relate spending to economic activities� relate economic activities to environmental
impacts****Environmental Life Style AnalysisEnvironmental Life Style AnalysisEnvironmental Life Style AnalysisEnvironmental Life Style AnalysisTimothy Gutowski, Amanda Taplett, Anna Allen, Amy Banzaert, Rob Cirinciore, Christopher Cleaver, Stacy Figueredo, Susan Fredholm, Betar Gallant, Alissa Jones, Jonathan Krones, Barry Kudrowitz, Cynthia Lin, Alfredo Morales, David Quinn, Megan Roberts, Robert Scaringe, Tim Studley, Sittha Sukkasi,Mika Tomczak, Jessica Vechakul, and Malina Wolf. IEEE International Symposium on Electronicsand the Environment, San Francisco, USA May 19 � 21, 2008
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Table 1. List of Student Contributions and Areas of Contribution
Student Grad/ Undergrad
Life Styles, (variants) Nine Impact Areas (Grads only)
1 Allen, Anna N. G Soccer Mom 1.Services 2
Banzaert, Amy G �Oprah
approximation� 2.Housing
3 G Pro Golfer (2) 3.Insurance & Pensions
4 Cleaver, Christopher
U Management Consultant
5 Figueredo, Stacy G Retired Person 4.Utilities 6 Fredholm, Susan G Engineer 5.Government 7 Krones, Jonathan U U.S. Senator (3) 8 Kudrowitz, Barry G Commercial Artist (1.Services) 9
Lin, Cynthia U
Teach for America (3)
10 Morales, Alfredo U Corporate CEO 11 Quinn, David G Buddhist Monks (2) (2.Housing) 12 Roberts, Megan U Coma Patients (3) 13
Scaringe, Robert J. G �Bill Gates
approximation� 6.Transportation
14 Studley, Tim U Investment Banker 15 Sukkasi, Sittha G Homeless Person 7.Apparel 16 Taplett, Amanda G Project Coordinator Project Coordinator 17 Tomczak, Mika G 5 year old 8.Food Industry 18
Vechakul, Jessica G Vegetarian College
Student (8.Food Industry)
19 Wolf, Malina Isabella G Nursing Home 9.Utilities
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Table 2 Life Styles with estimated expenditures including most subsidies (add $4391 for government services) and energy use
Life Style
Est. Income
Est. Expenditure Energy GJ Comment
1 Buddhist Monk I $13k $8.5k 154 interviewed 2 Buddhist Monk II $26k $20.5k 370 interviewed 3 Homeless person $4k $24k 160 4 Retired person - $31k 390 some interviews 5 Five year old 0 $32k 160 estimated 6 Soccer Mom - $32k 518 some interviews 7 Teach for America - $35k 300-500 interviewed (3) 8 Veg. College Student 11k $52k 260 interviewed 9 Engineer $75k $58k 350 composite 10 Commercial Artist - $50-65k 500 interviewed 11 Manage Consultant $120k $80k 640 some interviews 12 Nursing Home Patient 0 $90k 580 estimate 13 Investment Banker - $275k 780 (3 variants) 14 Coma Patient 0 $680k 3500 (3 variants) 15 U.S. Senator $1M $950k 4800 (3 variants) 16 Pro Golfer $3.9M $1.7M 6000 (2 variants)
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Disposable Income, Annual Expenditures, Government Services and Total Income calculated for 24 different Life
Styles in the United StatesIncome Data by Lifestyle
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
Chi
ld
Com
a - I
CU
Com
a - m
ix
Com
a - s
uppo
rt
Hom
eles
s
Mon
k 2
Nur
sing
Hom
e
Mon
k 1
Veg
Stud
ent
Ret
iree
TFA
- Chi
cago
TFA
- Hou
ston
TFA
- NYC
Artis
t
Engi
neer
Socc
er M
om
Mgm
t Con
sulta
nt
Inv
Bank
er
Gol
fer -
Hig
h
Gol
fer -
Low
CEO
"Ave
rage
"
CEO
"Gre
at"
Opr
ah
Gat
es
Lifestyle
Dol
lars
Disposable IncomeAnnual ExpendituresTotal Income CalculationGovt Services
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Table 1 Relative Share of Expenditures, Average Ref: �What We Work for Now�, J. Segal et al, 2001 www.RedefiningProgress.org, and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey
Production Services Use Total 1 • Food
• Rest 8%
6% ↓ 14%
2 • Housing • Utilities & fuels • Furnishings &
supplies
19% 6%
2% 6%
33%
3 • Apparel
3% 2% ↑ 5%
4 • Transport • Vehicle • Gas • Other • Public transp.
9% 3%
3% 1%
3%
19%
5 • Services/Personal
20% 20%
6 • Insurance/Pension
9% 9%
TOTAL 48% 43% 9% 100%
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Table 2 Expenditures by Category for $20,000 Production Services Use Total 1 • Food
• Rest $1,600
1,200 ↓ 1,600
1,200
2 • Housing • Utilities & fuels • Furnishings &
supplies
3,800 1,200
400 1,200
4,200 1,200 1,200
3 • Apparel
600 400 ↑ 1,000
4 • Transport • Vehicle • Gas • Other • Public transp.
1,800 600
600 200
600
1,800 600 1.200 200
5 • Services/Personal
4,000 4,000
6 • Insurance/Pension
1,800 1,800
TOTAL 9,600 8,600 1,800 20,000
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Table 3 Approximate Energy Used (GJ) Productiona Servicesb Use Total 1 • Food
• Rest 34GJ
8GJ ↓ 42GJ
2 • Housing • Utilities & fuels • Furnishings &
supplies
81 26
3 69c
179GJ
3 • Apparel
13 3 ↑ 16GJ
4 • Transport • Vehicle • Gas • Other • Public transp.
39 13
4 1
60d
117GJ
5 • Services/Personal
27
6 • Insurance/Pension
12
TOTAL 206GJ 58GJ 129GJ 393GJ
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Energy use versus disposable income for
23 different life styles in the U.S.
Energy Use vs. Disposable Income
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
Disposable Income ($)
Ener
gy U
se (M
J)
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Global warming potential per person and disposable
income for 23 different Life Styles in the United States.
Global Warming Potential
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
Child
Coma -
ICU
Coma -
mix
Coma -
supp
ortHom
eless
Monk 2
Nursing
Hom
eMon
k 1Veg
Stud
ent
Retiree
TFA - Chic
ago
TFA - Hou
ston
TFA - NYC
Artist
Engine
er
Socce
r Mom
Mgmt C
onsu
ltant
Inv Ban
ker
Golfer
- High
Golfer
- Low
CEO "Ave
rage"
CEO "Grea
t"Opra
hGate
s
Lifestyle
Dis
posa
ble
Inco
me
($)
1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
100,000.00
1,000,000.00
GW
P (MT C
O2E)
Disposable Income GWP (MT CO2E)
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Economic activity generated by each life style versus
disposable income for 23 life styles in the U.S. 1997 data
Economic Impact of Activity
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
Disposable Income ($)
Econ
omic
Act
ivity
($)
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What’s Next?What’s Next?What’s Next?What’s Next?
� Scale, Flow and Cycles � Do readings for this topic� Do homeworks #1 & 2
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Figure 1-2: Global terrestrial carbon uptake. Plant (autotrophic) respiration releases CO2 to the atmosphere, reducing GPP to NPP and resulting in short-term carbon uptake. Decomposition (heterotrophic respiration) of litter and soils in excess of that resulting from disturbance further releases CO2 to the atmosphere, reducing NPP to NEP and resulting in medium-term carbon uptake. Disturbance from both natural and anthropogenic sources (e.g., harvest) leads to further releaseof CO2 to the atmosphere by additional heterotrophic respiration and combustion
-which, in turn, leads to long-term carbon storage (adapted from Steffen et al., 1998).