• OurfinalreportaswellasallthedataareaccessibleonAmazonWebServices:https://www.amazon.com/clouddrive/folder/mBhUGphVS72wZBcAaW6qnQ?_encoding=UTF8&mgh=1&ref_=nav_Photos_Files&sf=1• Alinkfromourwebsitetothedatawillalsobeavailable• Linkstotheappswillalsobeposted

Generalconsiderationsregardingavailability

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LOWPROBABILITY/HIGHIMPACTEVENTS TailingsDamStateIdentification&FailureImpactAnalysisApp

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LOWPROBABILITY/HIGHIMPACTEVENTS

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TailingsDamStateIdentification&FailureImpactAnalysisApp

LOWPROBABILITY/HIGHIMPACTEVENTS

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TailingsDamStateIdentification&FailureImpactAnalysisApp

LOWPROBABILITY/HIGHIMPACTEVENTS

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TailingsDamStateIdentification&FailureImpactAnalysisApp

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Choose:eventofinterest:e.g.30-dayprecipitationeventreturn-levelofinterest:e.g.10years,100years

Compute theyearlyextremumtimeseriesateverylocationIdentify thepercentilethresholdforthereturnperiodofinterest

Weight eacheventwithadamagefunctionCompute thetimeseriesofweightedexceedancesattheportfoliolevel

Identify eventsofinterest:allexceedancesofthepercentilethresholdforalldaysintherecordateachlocation

Compute VaR andCVaR-likemeasurestorankportfolios

LOWPROBABILITY/HIGHIMPACTEVENTS ExposuretoClimateRisk- App

Foragiveneventdurationd,andreturn-levelp,theprocessisthefollowing:- computelocalyearlymaximaandfindthelocalthresholdbasedonp,- foreachsitei,obtain

𝑛",$ 𝑝, 𝑑 and𝐿, 𝑝, 𝑑 = 𝐶 𝑝, 𝑑 𝑉, + 𝐷 𝑝, 𝑑 𝐹,,- defineportfolioexposureas𝑆4 𝑝, 𝑑 = ∑ 𝐿,(𝑝, 𝑑)𝑛,,4(𝑝, 𝑑)�

, or𝑅$ 𝑝, 𝑑 = :; <,=∑ >?�

?- computeVaRq-likemeasureusingquantile(𝑅$ 𝑝, 𝑑 ,q)- computeCVaRq-likemeasureusingtrapezoidalapproximation:

𝐶𝑉𝑅@ 𝑝, 𝑑 = A(ABC)(DEA)

FG <,= EFH <,=I

+ ∑ 𝑅J 𝑝, 𝑑KBAJL@EA

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LOWPROBABILITY/HIGHIMPACTEVENTS ExposuretoClimateRisk- App

LOWPROBABILITY/HIGHIMPACTEVENTS

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ExposuretoClimateRisk- App

LOWPROBABILITY/HIGHIMPACTEVENTS

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ExposuretoClimateRisk- App

LOWPROBABILITY/HIGHIMPACTEVENTS

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ExposuretoClimateRisk- App

• MinelevelwateruseinCuandAu,Waterdevelopment&water/wastewatertreatmentcostsformines• Globalgriddedclimatedata=100+years• Tailingdamattributes,satelliteimagery,damfailureattributes• SocialconflictandrelatedcovariatesforPeru&Mexico• Miningproduction,ambientwaterqualitytimeseriesforPeru,USA• Remediationcostestimatereportsovertimeformines• Financialreportingandvaluationdataforminesfrommarketresearch• “WaterRisk”indicesfromAqueduct• Waterrelatedminingregulationsforcomparativeanalysisacrosscountries

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DatasetsCompiledandAvailable

RealOptionsValuationApp

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RealOptionsValuationApp

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RealOptionsValuationApp

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AnExample:Antamina

• LargeopenpitcopperminesinPeru• Ownedbyaconsortiumofmajorcompanies• About400kt ofcopperperyr• Tailingsdamis230mtall(oneofthehighestrock-filleddams)• Highlyacidicduetohighconcentrationofsulfites

RealOptionsValuationApp

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AdditionalParametersRealOptionsValuationApp

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AnExample:AntaminaRealOptionsValuationApp

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RealOptionsValuationApp

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AnotherApproachforUsingtheApp• Input:

• A)basiccharacteristicsofthemine(suchasitslocation,typeofmine,age,productioncost,etc.)

• B)marketinformationsuchasspotprice,interestrates

• C)afewrepresentativesexamplesof“accurate”valuationsofmines

• Outputsaninterval[V_min,NO_Shocks]:• IfmarketpriceissmallerthanV_min.Then,marketisunderpricingshocks.

• IfmarketpriceislargerthanNO_Shocks.Then,marketisoverpricingshocks.

RealOptionsValuationApp

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