our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to achieve … · 2020. 11. 25. · survey of...

What’s New: Central Government Debt (As of September 30, 2020) p. 2 Outstanding government bonds and borrowings increased by 30.9 trillion yen to 1,189.9

trillion yen from the end of June (1,159.0 trillion yen). The total amount of FBs, FILP bonds and General Bonds increased by 17.9 trillion yen, 7.2 trillion yen and 6.6 trillion yen, respectively, while Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. decreased by 0.7 trillion yen.

Monthly Topic: The Bank of Japan’s TANKAN (September 2020 Survey) p.3 On October 1, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released the TANKAN (“Short-Term Economic

Survey of Enterprises in Japan”), a quarterly survey of more than 9,000 enterprises.

IR Office: IR activities in October p. 4 During the period from the last week of September to early October, we conducted our

first virtual IR activities. We had discussions with foreign investors in Asian countries and Australia.

Statistics JGB Primary Market … p. 5 Liquidity Enhancement Auctions and JGB Buy-Back … p. 6

JGB Secondary Market … p. 7 Investor Trends and JGB Outstanding … p. 9

Economic and Financial Trends … p. 13 Information … p. 14

-1-

Monthly Newsletter of the Ministry of Finance, Japan JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS

SUMMARY

The Ministry of Finance www.mof.go.jp

Our fundamental goal of debt management policy is to achieve stable and smooth financing for our national accounts and to minimize medium-to-long term financing costs.

November 2020

https://www.mof.go.jp/

Central Government Debt (As of September 30, 2020) On November 10, the Ministry of Finance released the update on central government debt. Debt

outstanding and composition as of the end of September 2020 are as follows:

The end of September 2020

(Actual)

Increase or Decrease(-) from

the End of the Previous Quarter

1) Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings

General Bonds 894.4 6.6

Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds (FILP Bonds) 101.1 7.2

Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. 59.2 -0.7

Financing Bills (FBs) 135.2 17.9

Total 1,189.9 30.9

2) Outstanding Government-Guaranteed Debts

Government-Guaranteed Debts 34.9 -0.5

The end of Sept. 2020

(Actual)

Increase or Decrease(-) from

the End of the Previous Quarter

The end of FY2020

(Estimate)

① General Bonds 894.4 6.6 Approx. 964

② Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds Not included Not included Not included

③ Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. (Note 1) 26.1 -0.3 Approx. 29

④ Financing Bills Not included Not included Not included

Long-term debt outstanding of central governments 920.5 6.3 Approx. 993

⑤ Long-term debt outstanding of local governments (Note 2) Approx. 189

Long-term debt outstanding of central and local governments (Note 2) Approx. 1,182

-2-

(trillion yen)

Notes:

1. Figures may not sum up to the total because of rounding.

2. Above "Outstanding Government Bonds and Borrowings" includes government bonds and borrowings held by government.

3. Figures are total of the general account and all special accounts, and the coverage is different from the central government defined in SNA.

4. The data as of December 31, 2020 will be released on February 10, 2021. Details: https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/e202009.html

Outstanding government bonds and borrowings increased by 30.9 trillion yen to 1,189.9 trillion yen from the end of June (1,159.0 trillion yen). The total amount of FBs, FILP bonds and General Bonds increased by 17.9 trillion yen, 7.2 trillion yen and 6.6 trillion yen, respectively, while Borrowings, Subsidy Bonds, etc. decreased by 0.7 trillion yen.

Long-term outstanding central government debt, which does not include FILP bonds, FBs or some of the borrowings related to local governments, increased to 920.5 trillion yen from the end of June (914.2 trillion yen).

<Main Points>

Note 1: The borrowings of the Special Account for Allotment of Local Allocation Tax and Local Transfer Tax (end of FY2019: approx.¥31trillion) are included in “⑤Long-term

debt outstanding of local governments” because the burden of redemption funds falls on local governments.

Note 2: The actual figure of “⑤Long-term debt outstanding of local governments” is blank, because quarterly data has not been created.

Central Government Debt

(Reference) Long-term debt outstanding of central and local governments The MOF has announced the “Long-term debt outstanding of central and local governments” whose interest payments and redemption funds are mainly

to be covered by tax revenues, from the viewpoint of transparency of fiscal management. The statistics are derived by adding the long-term debt outstanding of local governments to the above mentioned Central Government Debt, while excluding Fiscal Investment and Loan Program Bonds and Financing Bills.

(trillion yen)

What’s New

2 -31 6

Non-manufacturing -25 -21 4 -24 -3

ChangebetweenSept. and

Dec.

Manufacturing -39 -37

1

[Large Enterprises]

Manufacturing -34 -27 7 -17 10

Non-manufacturing -17 -12 5 -11

-2

[Medium-sized Enterprises]

Manufacturing -36 -34 2 -30 4

Non-manufacturing -27 -23 4 -25

-45 -44 1 -38 6

[All Enterprises]

All industries -31 -28 3 -27 1

Non-manufacturing -26 -22 4 -27 -5

[Small Enterprises]

Manufacturing

June 2020 Sept. 2020Dec. 2020(Forecast)

ChangebetweenJune and

Sept.

‐60%

‐50%

‐40%

‐30%

‐20%

‐10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

(Diffusion index)

Large enterprises/Manufacturing

Large enterprises/Non‐Manufacturing

Small enterprises/Manufacturing

Small enterprises/Non‐Manufacturing

The Bank of Japan’s TANKAN (September 2020 Survey) On October 1, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released the TANKAN (“Short-Term Economic Survey

of Enterprises in Japan”), a quarterly survey of more than 9,000 enterprises. The points are as follows:

The diffusion index for all enterprises rose from -31 to -28 in September. In particular, there was relatively big improvement for large enterprises in the manufacturing sector. The index for all enterprises sizes in the non-manufacturing sector also improved.

December forecast figures show further improvement in the manufacturing sector, even though some indices in the non-manufacturing sector decline.

MONTHLY TOPIC

-3-

(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", % points)

(Source) Bank of Japan “Tankan” For more information, see http://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/tk/index.htm/

(Source) Bank of Japan “Tankan”

Hi! This month we are focusing on our first virtual IR activities.

In normal circumstances, we go on overseas business trips and have meetings with foreign investors. This year it has been difficult to meet in person because of the COVID-19 pandemic. So, during the period from the last week of September to early October, we conducted our first virtual IR activities.

Fortunately, they were all pretty smooth meetings and went well. They were also comfortable. One advantage of virtual meetings is that they do not require all the advance planning that direct meetings have. We do not have to spend all the time planning for a long business trip, which can be time-consuming. We also believe that this gives us more spontaneity, so that we can say something like “how about having a meeting in 2 weeks?”

We had discussions with foreign investors in Asian countries and Australia. We are very grateful to them for giving us this opportunity. They gave us their straightforward views on JGBs and some recommendations for us. It was really great for us to exchange views on JGBs. We learned a lot from these discussions and we also believe that this led to mutual understanding of the Japanese markets and economy.

We would like to continue our virtual IR activities to provide investors with information such as our approach to debt management and Japanese economic policies because unfortunately, we need to acknowledge that this situation is not ending right away. But, we do not think these online meetings can completely take the place of in-person meetings in terms of deepening vivid interactions with foreign investors. Therefore, we are still looking forward to seeing foreign investors in-person in the near future, once this unprecedented health crisis is over.

IR Office

-4-

If you have any questions regarding the contents of this newsletter, please do not hesitate to contact us at: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Auction Results

（Bonds）

Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date Nominal

Coupon

Amounts of Competitive

Bids (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids

Accepted (billion yen)

Yield at the Lowest

Accepted Price

Yield at the Average

Price

Amounts of Non-Competitive Bids Tendered

/Accepted (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids Accepted at the

Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)


Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅱ (billion yen)

8/4/2020 10-year 359 6/20/2030 0.1% 7,666.7 2,107.4 0.021% 0.018% 1.265 490.5 210.1 8/6/2020 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 25 3/10/2030 0.2% 640.9 199.9 0.006% - - - - 8/18/2020 30-year 67 6/20/2050 0.6% 2,515.4 730.2 0.625% 0.617% - 169.2 22.6 8/20/2020 5-year 144 6/20/2025 0.1% 7,236.5 2,036.9 ▲0.091% ▲0.093% 1.000 461.3 0.0 8/25/2020 20-year 173 6/20/2040 0.4% 3,837.0 978.9 0.405% 0.403% - 220.3 117.0 8/27/2020 2-year 416 9/1/2022 0.1% 11,403.8 2,444.9 ▲0.114% ▲0.115% 1.000 553.4 101.2 9/1/2020 10-year 359 6/20/2030 0.1% 6,679.8 2,118.0 0.045% 0.034% 2.280 479.3 0.0 9/3/2020 30-year 67 6/20/2050 0.6% 2,565.4 733.8 0.617% 0.611% - 165.4 86.0 9/8/2020 5-year 144 6/20/2025 0.1% 7,247.6 2,037.9 ▲0.087% ▲0.091% - 461.3 0.0 9/10/2020 20-year 173 6/20/2040 0.4% 3,636.2 984.6 0.413% 0.408% - 214.6 43.9 9/24/2020 40-year 13 3/20/2060 0.5% 1,324.5 499.3 0.610% - - - 44.8 9/29/2020 2-year 417 10/1/2022 0.1% 9,856.1 2,450.6 ▲0.139% ▲0.141% - 548.5 124.1 10/1/2020 10-year 360 9/20/2030 0.1% 8,560.1 2,107.2 0.025% 0.024% 1.265 490.5 215.4 10/6/2020 30-year 68 9/20/2050 0.6% 2,578.5 733.6 0.643% 0.638% - 165.4 1.6 10/8/2020 5-year 145 9/20/2025 0.1% 9,978.1 2,038.2 ▲0.089% ▲0.091% - 461.3 249.1 10/20/2020 20-year 174 9/20/2040 0.4% 3,755.1 972.8 0.397% 0.394% - 226.0 105.3 10/27/2020 2-year 418 11/1/2022 0.1% 9,744.1 2,445.8 ▲0.127% ▲0.130% - 553.5 0.0

Auction Results （Treasury Discount Bills）

Auction Date Type of Security Issue Number Maturity Date

Amounts of Competitive Bids

(billion yen)

Amounts of Bids Accepted

(billion yen)

Yield at the Lowest

Accepted Price

Yield at the Average

Price


Non-price- competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)

8/6/2020 6-month 927 2/10/2021 8,749.60 2,708.16 ▲0.1375% ▲0.1454% 591.80 8/7/2020 3-month 928 11/9/2020 16,744.40 6,156.36 ▲0.0669% ▲0.0737% 1,393.60 8/14/2020 3-month 929 11/16/2020 20,316.70 6,169.91 ▲0.0661% ▲0.0701% 1,380.00 8/19/2020 1-year 930 8/20/2021 8,421.70 2,895.67 ▲0.1308% ▲0.1417% 604.30 8/21/2020 3-month 931 11/24/2020 17,003.39 6,156.45 ▲0.0753% ▲0.0829% 1,393.50 8/24/2020 6-month 932 2/25/2021 9,131.70 2,852.87 ▲0.1011% ▲0.1110% 547.10 8/28/2020 3-month 933 11/30/2020 21,274.40 6,156.34 ▲0.0862% ▲0.0898% 1,393.60 9/4/2020 3-month 934 12/7/2020 18,950.70 6,156.36 ▲0.1162% ▲0.1239% 1,393.60 9/9/2020 6-month 935 3/10/2021 9,913.60 3,039.88 ▲0.1330% ▲0.1450% 560.10 9/11/2020 3-month 936 12/14/2020 17,841.10 6,156.35 ▲0.1102% ▲0.1178% 1,393.60 9/16/2020 1-year 937 9/21/2021 12,316.50 2,862.97 ▲0.1365% ▲0.1365% 637.00 9/18/2020 3-month 938 12/21/2020 20,986.50 6,158.05 ▲0.1045% ▲0.1107% 1,391.90 9/24/2020 6-month 939 3/25/2021 13,728.20 3,017.75 ▲0.1410% ▲0.1430% 682.20 9/25/2020 3-month 940 1/6/2021 17,537.70 6,156.48 ▲0.1659% ▲0.1860% 1,393.50 10/2/2020 3-month 941 1/12/2021 18,634.72 6,162.94 ▲0.1418% ▲0.1525% 1,387.00 10/8/2020 6-month 942 4/12/2021 11,501.80 3,107.97 ▲0.1122% ▲0.1202% 692.00 10/9/2020 3-month 943 1/18/2021 16,256.70 6,178.05 ▲0.0875% ▲0.0945% 1,371.90 10/16/2020 3-month 944 1/25/2021 19,881.27 6,156.32 ▲0.0781% ▲0.0834% 1,393.60 10/19/2020 1-year 945 10/20/2021 10,453.30 2,890.66 ▲0.1288% ▲0.1348% 609.30 10/22/2020 6-month 946 4/26/2021 11,342.90 3,132.01 ▲0.0982% ▲0.1002% 667.90 10/23/2020 3-month 947 2/1/2021 19,877.60 6,157.35 ▲0.0744% ▲0.0793% 1,392.60 10/30/2020 3-month 948 2/8/2021 19,923.17 6,167.89 ▲0.0800% ▲0.0845% 1,382.00

Auction Calendar for Nov. 2020 – Jan. 2021 Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue Auction Date Issue

11/4(Wed) 10-year 11/24(Tue) T-Bills (6-month) 12/15(Tue) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years) 1/15(Fri) Liquidity Enhancement Auction

(remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years)

11/6(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 11/25(Wed) 40-year 12/16(Wed) T-Bills (1-year) 1/19(Tue) T-Bills (1-year) 11/6(Fri) 10-year Inflation-Indexed Bonds 11/27(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 12/17(Thu) T-Bills (3-month) 1/19(Tue) 20-year

11/9(Mon) T-Bills (6-month) 11/27(Fri) 2-year 12/22(Tue) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 15.5-39 years) 1/20(Wed) T-Bills (6-month)

11/10(Tue) 30-year 12/1(Tue) 10-year 12/24(Thu) 2-year 1/22(Fri) T-Bills (3-month)

11/12(Thu) 5-year 12/3(Thu) 30-year 1/5(Tue) T-Bills (3-month) 1/22(Fri) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 1-5 years)

11/13(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 12/4(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 1/6(Wed) 10-year 1/26(Tue) 40-year

11/16(Mon) Liquidity Enhancement Auction (remaining maturities of 5-15.5 years) 12/8(Tue) 5-year 1/7(Thu) T-Bills (6-month) 1/28(Thu) 2-year

11/18(Wed) 20-year 12/9(Wed) T-Bills (6-month) 1/8(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 1/29(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 11/19(Thu) T-Bills (1-year) 12/10(Thu) 20-year 1/8(Fri) 30-year 11/20(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 12/11(Fri) T-Bills (3-month) 1/13(Wed) 5-year 11/20(Fri) Liquidity Enhancement Auction

(remaining maturities of 1-5 years) 12/15(Tue) T-Bills (6-month) 1/15(Fri) T-Bills (3-month)

Top 10 PDs for Successful Bids in Auctions (Calculated by Duration) (Apr. 2020～Sep. 2020) Top 5 PDs for Successful Bids of Inflation-Indexed Bond (FY2019) 1 Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd. 6 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. 1 JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. 2 Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. 7 SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. 2 Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. 3 Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd. 8 Deutsche Securities Inc. 3 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. 4 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. 9 BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited 4 Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co., Ltd. 5 JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. 10 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. 5 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd.

JGB Primary Market

Note.1: The above calendar may be changed or added in light of changes in circumstances. In such cases, it will be announced in advance. Note.2: Each issue amount will be announced about one week prior to each auction date.

(Until 31 October 2020)


-5-

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,5003,000

3,500

4,000

JL15

7

JX23

JL15

8

JX24

JL15

9

JX25

JL16

0

JX26

JL16

1

JL16

2

JX27

JL16

3

JL16

4

JX28

JL16

5

JL16

6

JX29

JL16

7

JL16

8

JX30

JL16

9

JL17

0

JX31

JL17

1

JL17

2

JX32

JL17

3

JX33

JX34

JX35

JX36

JX37

JX38

JX39

JX40

JX41

JX42

JX43

JX44

JX45

JX46

JX47

JX48

JX49

JX50

JX51

JX52

JX53

JX54

JX55

JX56

JX57

JX58 JU

1

JX59

JX60

JX61

JX62 JU

2

JX63

JX64

JX65

JX66 JU

3

JX67 JU

4

JU5

JU6

JU7

JU8

JU9

JU10

JU11

JU12

Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auctions Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)(billion yen)

(Remaining maturities)15.5 20 39

Results of Liquidity Enhancement Auctions

Auction Date Amounts of Competitive

Bids (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids

Accepted (billion yen)

Average Accepted Spread

Highest Accepted Spread

Issues Re-opened

8/12/2020 1,010.6 499.0 0.009% 0.014% 20-year(157,165,169,170,171,172) 30-year(23,30,31,38,43,46,47,49,50,54,56,65,66) 40-year(1,2,4,6,7,9,10,11,12)

8/14/2020 1,664.0 498.9 0.008% 0.011% 10-year(340,341,354,358) 20-year(82,83,84,89,116,117,118,121,122,123,124,128,129)

9/15/2020 2,083.9 497.3 0.000% 0.002% 10-year(340,341,343,344,345,346,348,351,356) 20-year(88,89,90,92,93,94,96,97,98,99,103,104,108,113,118,121,122,123,124,130,145,153,154,155)

9/18/2020 1,421.0 399.5 ▲0.010% ▲0.008%

2-year(404,405,411,412,413) 5-year(132,133,136,137,138,139,140,142) 10-year(327,332,336,339) 20-year(59,72,73,78)

10/13/2020 1,161.4 498.4 ▲0.002% 0.000% 20-year(157,162,165,171,172,173) 30-year(23,34,35,36,37,39,62,63,66) 40-year(1,2,5,8,9,11,12)

10/15/2020 2,203.0 497.9 ▲0.007% ▲0.006% 10-year(341,342,345,349,350,351) 20-year(93,94,95,97,99,100,101,102,103,104,105,106,112,154,156)

Target Zones of Liquidity Enhancement Auctions for the Third Quarter of FY 2020

10-year Inflation-Indexed

Auction Date Amounts of

Competitive Bids (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids Accepted

(billion yen)

Average Accepted

Spread (yen)

Highest Accepted

Spread (yen) Issue Numbers

7/8/2020 175.4 50.0 ▲0.217 ▲0.13 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 8/19/2020 184.1 50.1 ▲0.147 ▲0.06 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25 9/4/2020 223.6 50.3 ▲0.281 ▲0.22 19, 20, 21, 23, 24, 25

10/7/2020 170.9 50.1 ▲0.155 ▲0.05 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500

341

JL83

JL84 34

2JL

85JL

86JL

87 343

JL88

JL89 34

4JL

90JL

91 345

JL92 34

6JL

93JL

94 347

JL95

JL96 34

8JL

97JL

98 349

JL99 35

0JL

100

JL10

135

1JL

102

JL10

3JL

104

352

JL10

5JL

106

353

JL10

7JL

108

354

JL10

9JL

110

355

JL11

1JL

112

356

JL11

3JX

135

7JL

114

JL11

5JX

235

8JL

116

JL11

7JX

335

9JL

118

JL11

9JL

120

JL12

1JL

122

JX4

JL12

3JL

124

JL12

5JL

126

JL12

7JX

5JL

128

JL12

9JL

130

JL13

1JX

6JL

132

JL13

3JL

134

JL13

5JL

136

JX7

JL13

7JL

138

JL13

9JL

140

JX8

JL14

1JL

142

JX9

JL14

3JL

144

JX10

JL14

5JX

11JL

146

JX12

JL14

7JX

13JL

148

JX14

JL14

9JX

15JL

150

JX16

JL15

1JX

17JL

152

JX18

JL15

3JX

19JL

154

JX20

JL15

5JX

21JL

156

JX22

Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auctions Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)

5 10 15.5

(billion yen)

(Remaining maturities)

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

JN40

6

JN40

7

JS13

0

319

320

JL53

JL54

JN40

8

JN40

9

JN41

0

JS13

1

321

322

JL55

JN41

1

JN41

2

JN41

3

JS13

2

323

324

JL56

JL57

JN41

4

JN41

5

JN41

6

JS13

3

325

JL58

JS13

4

326

327

JL59

JL60

JS13

5

328

JL61

JS13

6

329

JL62

JL63

JS13

7

330

331

JL64

JS13

8

332

JL65

JL66

JS13

9

333

JL67

JL68

JL69

JS14

0

334

JL70

JL71

JS14

1

335

JL72

JS14

2

336

337

JL73

JL74

JS14

3

338

JL75

JL76

JL77

JS14

4

339

JL78

JL79

JL80 34

0

JL81

JL82

Amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auctions Outstanding amount in the market (excluding amount issued by Liquidity Enhancement Auction)

1 2 5(Remaining maturities)

(billion yen)

③Remaining maturity : approx.15.5‐～39‐year

Liquidity Enhancement Auctions and JGB Buy-Back

①Remaining maturity : approx.1‐～5‐year

Note1： JN shows 2‐year JGBs. JS shows 5‐year JGBs. JL shows 20‐year JGBs. JX shows 30‐year JGBs. JU shows 40‐year JGBs. Outstanding amount is as of the end of September 2020. Note2： All issues in the graph above will be eligible afterward.

Buy-Back Results


②Remaining maturity : approx.5‐～15.5‐year


-6-

‐0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16 Jan‐17 Jan‐18 Jan‐19 Jan‐20

2‐year bond 5‐year bond 10‐year bond

20‐year bond 30‐year bond 40‐year bond

‐1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%


Japan United States

United Kingdom Germany

‐0.4%

‐0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Jan‐13Jul‐13Jan‐14Jul‐14Jan‐15Jul‐15Jan‐16Jul‐16Jan‐17Jul‐17Jan‐18Jul‐18Jan‐19Jul‐19Jan‐20Jul‐20

Volatility Yield (right scale)

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

2019/12/302020/3/312020/6/302020/7/312020/8/312020/9/30

40353020 25151050

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

BEI (Japan : 10 year)

BEI (U.S.A. : 10 year)

BEI (U.K. : 10 year)

Note: BEI (Japan: 10 year) is calculated based on the compound interest rate of the new Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the 10-Year Bonds Sources: Japan: Calculation by the Ministry of Finance based on the information on interest rates offered by NIKKEI QUICK.

U.S.A., U.K.: Bloomberg.

JGB Yield Curves

Source: Japan Bond Trading Co.,Ltd.

Yields of JGB

Long - Term Interest Rates （10Yr）

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

-7-

Yield and Volatility (10Yr)

Break-Even Inflation Rates

Source: Bloomberg

(Until 30 September 2020)




JGB Secondary Market

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,100


Treasury Discount BillsMedium Term BondsLong Term Bonds

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500


Bond-Lending

Bond-Gensaki

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%


Call Rate (Uncollateralized Overnight)

TIBOR 3-months (Euro-Yen)

Basic Loan Rate

Short-Term Interest Rates

Sources: Bank of Japan, Tanshi Association, Bloomberg

JGB Over-the-Counter Trading Volume (TOKYO)

Trading Volume of 10-Year JGB Futures

Repurchase Transactions

-8-

Note: Trading volume is the sum of sales and purchases including the trading volume of bonds with repurchase agreements. Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association

Sources: Tokyo Stock Exchange (until Mar.2014), Osaka Exchange (from Apr. 2014)

(trillion yen)

(trillion yen)

(trillion yen)


Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association

Super long-term

Long-term

Medium-term

T-bills

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJuly

City Banks

Net Purchase

Net Sale

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


Regional banks

Net Purchase

Net Sale

2015 2016 2017 20192018 2020

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0


Life and non-life insurance companies

Net Purchase

Net Sale

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0


Foreigners

Net Purchase

Net Sale

2015 2016 2017 20192018 2020

(trillion yen) (trillion yen)


0

50

100

150

200

Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16 Jan‐17 Jan‐18 Jan‐19 Jan‐200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


200210220230240250260270280290

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Apr‐12 Apr‐13 Apr‐14 Apr‐15 Apr‐16 Apr‐17 Apr‐18 Apr‐19 Apr‐20

Total Assets

Monetary Base

JGBs

T‐Bills

QQE2QQE（trillion yen）

Apr 2013(Actual)

Sep 2020(Actual)

Monetary Base 155 606

JGBs 98 485

T-Bills 36 45

CP 1.4 4.3

Corporate Bonds 2.9 5.3

ETFs 1.7 34.2J-REITs 0.13 0.63

Total Assets 175 690

-9-

Trends in Bank Assets by Types

Trends in JGBs Transactions (by investor type)

BOJ Trends

Regional Banks City Banks

Source: Bank of Japan


Loans

Cash and Deposits

Government Bonds

Municipal Bonds

Corporate Bonds

Equities

Foreign Securities



Investor Trends and JGB Outstanding

12.8%

34.4%

62.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

①Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Futures Market)

②Market Share of Foreign Investors (JGB Market)

③JGB Holdings by Foreign Investors

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

Amount of JGB Holdings (RHS)

Proportion of JGB Holdings (LHS)

(trillion yen)(％)

12.8

150.1

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


City Banks Trust Banks Insurance Companies Foreigners

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8


Short-term debt securities Long-term debt securities Equity and investment fund shares

Net Purchase

Net

Sales

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3



Net Purchase

Net

Sales

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10



Net Purchase

Net

Sales

-10-

JGBs Holdings by Foreign Investors

Banks(Banking Accounts) Life Insurance Companies

Transactions of Domestic Securities by Non-Residents

Note.1: Quarterly basis. Note.2: “JGB” includes “FILP Bonds” and “T-Bills”. Source: Bank of Japan

Transactions of Foreign Securities by Residents (by Investor types)

Foreign Investors Presence

Note.1: Quarterly basis. Note.2: “JGB” includes T-Bills. The figures of ②excludes dealers’ transactions. Sources: Bank of Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Tokyo Stock Exchange,

Osaka Exchange



(trillion yen)

Outstanding of Repurchase Agreements (by Investor types)

Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance

Source: Ministry of Finance

Total 143.3 trillion yen

JGB and T-Bill Holders

Breakdown by JGB and T-Bill Holders (The end of June 2020 QE)

Note1: “JGB” includes “FILP Bonds.” Note2: “Banks, etc.” includes “Japan Post Bank,” “Securities investment trust” and “Securities companies.” Note3: “Life and Non-life insurance, etc.” includes “Japan Post Insurance.” Source: Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds Accounts (Preliminary Figures)”

(trillion yen)

Breakdown of Outstanding Amount of General Bonds by Remaining Years to Maturity

T-Bill Holders JGB Holders

-11-

Total 1,027.0 trillion yen

Total 1,170.3 trillion yen

89.2692.55

71.99

65.2260.11

44.0241.24

43.0742.43

41.63

17.4516.51

19.58

19.2021.76

20.0218.22

18.3218.13

16.80

6.747.21

6.398.52

9.6510.91

9.31

11.39 10.08 9.59

1.96 1.96 2.00 2.17 2.28 2.83 2.811.89 2.14

0.51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59

Treasury Bills

2-yr bonds

JGBs for retail investors (3-yr-Fixed-rate)

JGBs for retail investors (5-yr-Fixed-rate)

5-yr bonds

Inflation-Indexed bonds

JGBs for retail investors (Floating-rate)

10-yr bonds

15-yr-floating-rate bonds

20-yr bonds

30-yr bonds

40-yr bonds

Average remaining years to maturity： 9 years and 2 months

（trillion yen）

（FY）

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,200

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

(billion yen)

(issue number)

Outstanding amount (excl.BOJ holding)

BOJ holding

Types The amount of redemption at maturity Scheduled redemption date

15-Year Floating-Rate Bonds 790.9 November 20

2-Year Bonds 2,340.0 November 1

Treasury Bills 1,800.0 November 20

Total 4,930.9

Source: Ministry of Finance

General Bonds Issuance Amount and Outstanding

Note 1: Issuance Amount: revenue basis, FY2009-2018: Actual, FY2019: Supplementary budget, FY2020: Initial budget Note 2: Outstanding: nominal basis, FY2009-2018: Actual, FY2019: Supplementary budget, FY2020: Initial budget Source: Ministry of Finance

Market-held Balance of the Inflation-Indexed Bonds (as of the end of September, 2020)

(trillion yen)

Scheduled redemption of JGB at maturity in November, 2020

Note.1: The figures are based on the outstanding JGBs at the end of September, 2020 Note.2: The figures are the scheduled redemption at maturity and may be different from the actual redemption due to Buy-back of JGBs. Note.3: The figures do not include "JGB for Retail Investors." Note.4: If the redemption date coincides with bank holiday, the payment of redemption is carried out on the following business day. Note.5: Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding.

(billion yen)

Sources: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan

Time-to-Maturity Structure of Outstanding JGB（June 2020）

-12-

(trillion yen)

‐60%

‐50%

‐40%

‐30%

‐20%

‐10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

(Diffusion index)

Large enterprises/Manufacturing

Large enterprises/Non‐Manufacturing

Small enterprises/Manufacturing

Small enterprises/Non‐Manufacturing

0.0%

-1

0

1

2

3

4(%)

CPI

CPI excluding food (excluding alcohilicbeverages) and energy

Change from the previous year

Apr.4, 2013BOJ released QQE

―0.3%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


(trillion yen)

Banknotes in Circulation

Coins in Circulation

Current Account Balances

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000


(billion yen)

Monthly Quarter (Mean)

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150


(2015 average=100・Seasonally Adjusted Index)

Production Shipments

Inventory Inventory Ratio

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

（ratio）

September, 20201.03

September, 2020

3.0％

Job openings‐to‐applicants ratio(RHS)

Unemployment rate(LHS)

Aug, 20090.42

Jul, 2009

5.5％

1.6 2.1

1.7

-1.0 -0.5

0.9

2.0

1.6

4.3

3.9

5.0

3.3

6.1 4.9

6.1

4.3

6.4

4.8

7.3

4.3

6.0 5.0

5.8

2.6

6.2

4.7

5.8

3.9

5.8

1.4

5.3

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2019

Q1

2019

Q2

2019

Q3

2019

Q4

2020

Q1

2020

Q2

2020

Q3

Primary Income Trade Balance

Services Secondary Income

Current Account

4.9

-2.9 -1.5

1.1

5.03.1 3.4

-0.2

4.1

-7.5

0.42.05.7

0.4

-0.2-1.5

2.1 0.40.91.2

4.81.2 2.31.9

-1.7

1.5

-3.2

2.32.9 1.6

0.2

-7.1

-2.3

-28.8

21.4

-32.0

-22.0

-12.0

-2.0

8.0

18.0

28.0

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(％)

Private Demand Public Demand

Foreign Demand Real GDP

Annualized rate of Change from the previous quarter (Seasonally adjusted)

(CY)

Real GDP Growth Rate

Employment Conditions

Prices

Changes in Current Account

Monetary Base Indices of Industrial Production

Total Value of Machinery Orders (Private Sector excl. Volatile orders)

TANKAN (Business Conditions)

Source: Cabinet Office Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Source: Ministry of Finance

Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Source: Cabinet Office

(trillion yen)

Economic and Financial Trends



-13-

English Publications on JGBs Frequency URL Debt Management

Message from the Financial Bureau As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/message.htm

About JGBs As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/guide.htm

About the Debt Management Policy As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/about.htm

JGB Issuance Plan As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/debt_management/plan/index.htm

Auction Calendar

Auction Calendar Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/calendar/index.htm

Historical Data of Auction Results Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/auction/past_auction_results/index.html

Topics

Product Characteristics of the JGB As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/bond/index.html

Treasury Discount Bills (T-Bills) As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/t_bill/index.htm

Japanese Government Guaranteed Bonds Annual https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/gov_guaranteed_bonds/index.htm

Interest Rate Swap Semiannual https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/swap/index.htm

Taxation of Government Bonds As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/taxation2016/index.html

For Individual Investors As needed https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/topics/individual/index.htm

Data

Central Government Debt Quarterly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/index.htm

Interest Rate Daily https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm

STRIPS Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/jgbstat/index.htm

Dialogue with the market

Advisory Councils on Government Debt Management Each Meeting https://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/gov_debt_management/index.html

Meeting of JGB Market Special Participants Each Meeting https://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgbsp/index.html

Meeting of JGB Investors Each Meeting https://www.mof.go.jp/english/about_mof/councils/jgb_investor/index.html

Publications

Debt Management Report Annual https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/debt_management_report/index.htm

JGB Newsletter Monthly https://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/publication/newsletter/index.htm

Debt Management Policy Division, Financial Bureau, Ministry of Finance 3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8940 Japan

Phone: 81-3-3581-4111 Web: https://www.mof.go.jp/

To subscribe to our Newsletter mailing list, please email: [email protected]

-14-

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