OuterSolarSystem:ManyWorldstoExplore

OuterPlanetsAssessmentGroup(OPAG)Reportto

PSSSeptember2016AlfredMcEwen

MajorOPAGChallenge

• HowtokeepouterSolarSystemsciencevibrantthroughtheDecadeofDarkness– NospacecraftdatafromOuter

PlanetsbetweenendofCassiniandJuno(2018)andarrivalofEuropamission

– ~10yeargapdependingonwhentheEuropamissionarrives

OPAGCharterandMeetingsExploreOuterPlanetsandOceanWorlds

Charter:• OPAGregularlyevaluatesouterSolarSystemexplorationgoals,objectives,investigationsandrequiredmeasurementsonthebasisofthewidestpossiblecommunityoutreach.Thegroupassemblestwiceperyeartoassessthecurrentstateofoutersolarsystemexploration,goalsforfutureexploration,andtechnologydevelopmentneededtoachievethosegoals.

Meetings:• ThemostrecentOPAGmeetingwasAugust11-12inFlagstaff,AZ• In2017wewillhaveawintermeetinginAtlantainlateFeb,thententativelymeetatScrippsInstituteofOceanography,SanDiego,inlateAugust.

• Nextslides:OPAGfindingsfromAug2016meeting–InorderofimportancetoPSS

EuropaLander• TheEuropaLanderSDTchairspresentedaprogressreportontheiractivities

– CurtNieburinvitedOPAGtocommentonthispresentation.• Ambitiousscienceobjectivescompinedwithveryconstrainedresources• Draftsciencegoalsinclude:

– (1)SearchforevidenceoflifeonEuropa(with5investigations)– (2)AssessthehabitabilityofEuropaviainsitutechniquesuniquelyavailabletoalandermission(3

investigations)– (3)Characterizesurfacepropertiesatthescaleofthelandertosupportfutureexploration(3

investigations).• Expectedresources,comparabletoPhilae,include:

– Landerpayloadof35kg– Totalmissionenergyof2500W-hr– 20-daysurfacelifetime

• OPAGisconcernedthatsomeofthecurrentdraftmissionobjectivesarehigh-risk,andthemissionwouldbeperceivedasafailureinaneventofnon-detectionoflife.

• OPAGfullysupportstheCOLDTechprogramtoaddresstheseconcerns– Tobeeffective,thiseffortneedstobecompletedpriortoreleaseofanAOforflightinstruments.

• OPAGFinding:WeareconcernedthatresourcesavailablefortheEuropaLandermissionmaynotbesufficienttoachievetheambitiousobjectivestosearchforlifeonEuropa.Werecommendthatmissionobjectivesbestructuredsothatthemissionwouldnotbecharacterizedasfailureinaneventofanon-detectionoflife.OPAGalsorecommendsthat,priortothereleaseofalanderinstrumentAO,potentialproposersaregivensufficienttimeandresourcestodevelopappropriatetechnologiestoaddresstheinvestigationstobedefinedintheSDTreport.

IoMissionStudyfornextDecadalSurvey• NewmissionstudiesacrosstheSolarSystemareneededtoinformthenext

DecadalSurvey.• MissionstoJupiterandicyGalileansatellitesareunderway,missionstoSaturnare

partofNF-4competition,andIceGiantMissionSDTstudyisnearcompletion.– Ioisthemostneglectedofthehigh-priorityexplorationtargetsinouterSolarSystem

• AnIoObserverwaslistedbythe2003DecadalSurveyasaDeferredHigh-prioritymission,andbythe2013DecadalSurveyasoneofsevenhigh-prioritymedium-classmissioncandidates.

• VisionandVoyagesrecommendedanIoObserverforinclusionamongthecandidatesfortheNewFrontiers5.– SincetheNF-4AOisonlybeingreleasedin2017,itisunlikelythatNF-5willbesolicited

before2023.• IoObserver,is,therefore,atopOPAGpriorityforthenextDecadalSurveyanda

missionstudyisanimportantpreliminarystep.• Therehavebeensignificantrecentadvancesintechnologyandscientific

understandingrelevanttoIodrivenbytheEuropaClipperandJunomissions.

• OPAGFinding: OPAGurgesNASAPSDtoconveneanIoObserverScienceDefinitionTeam(SDT)tosteeracomprehensivemissionconceptstudy.

ResponsestoNewFrontiers4DraftAO• OPAGapplaudsprogressonNF-4,andwasgenerallypositiveaboutthedraftAO.

• MMRTGs areavailableforNF-4,butthelossofpowerovertimemakesthemoflimitedvalueforthethreeNF-4missioncandidatestoSaturn.

• DevelopmentoftheeMMRTGiscomingalong,butslowly.Inordertobereadyfortheupcomingmissionsthereneedstobemoreofasenseofurgencyinpursuingthistarget.

• OPAGFinding:eMMRTGareanenablingtechnologyfortheouterSolarSystemandweencouragethembeingreadyandavailableassoonaspossible.WearedisappointedthattheyarenotexpectedtobereadyfortheNF-4AO.

• LaunchexpenseswithRPS:Allspacecraftmusthaveapowersystemwithcostsincludedinthepriceofthemission.

• Thereareextracostsassociatedwithflyingradioisotopepower– theadditionallaunchservicecosts.– InthedraftversionoftheNewFrontiersAOthesearecountedagainstthetotalmissioncost.

• OPAGFinding: OPAGsuggeststhat,inordertoleveltheplayingfieldformissionstochallenginglocations,costsassociatedwithNEPAandlaunchservice/approvalnotbecountedagainstthePImissioncostcap.

Roadmap(s)toOceanWorlds• OPAGthankstheROWcommittee,ledbyTerryHurfordandAmandaHendrix,for

theirongoingwork,andlooksforwardtotheirreportattheendoftheyear.• Thegoalofthisstudyistodefinealong-termprogramtounderstandoceanworlds

andsearchforlifebeyondEarth.• Preliminaryfindings:

– Existing(ornew)R&AinvestmentsshouldsupportfundamentalresearchvitaltoOceanWorldexploration...

– R&AinvestmentstosupportmaturationofinstrumentsandtechnologiesvitaltoOceanWorldexplorationshouldbuildontheaugmentationoffundingtoPICASSO,MATISSEandtheCOLDTechprograms.

– Efficient,capable,robustenergysourcesandfrequentlaunchcapabilityarecriticalforsupportingahealthyOceanWorldsexplorationprogram.

• OPAGFinding: TheOceanWorldsinitiativehasgreatpromiseforSolarSystemscience.Foritssuccess,investmentmustbecontinuedoraugmentedinrelatedfundamentalresearch,instrumentsandtechnologies,powersources,andlaunchcapabilities.

Research&Analysis• OPAGthanksJaredLeisner(NASAHQconsultant)forpresentingdataaboutthe

effectsofR&ArestructuringonOPAG-relevantfunding.• Overall,thereisnoclearevidencefordeclineinabsolutefundinglevels.• OPAGhasseveralresidualconcerns:

– Big,omnibusprogramssuchasSSWarelesstransparent– OPAGisconcernedthatfundamentalresearchisdiminished– ThenewR&Astructuremayexcludegoodproposalswithitsspecificity.Forexample,Cassinidata

analysishasahomeinCDAPS,JunodatawillbeintheNewFrontiersDAP,butitisnotclearwherecomparativedataanalysisacrossthetwoprojectshasahome.SSWdoesnotfunddataanalysiscoveredbyotherprograms,andsosomeprojectsmayfallthroughthecracks,orresearchersmaynotapply.

• OPAGFinding: Wehopethatthenewkeywordanalysiswilladdressconcernsaboutthelackoftransparencyinthenew,largeR&Aprograms.WeencouragethePSStodiscusswhatkeywordswouldbemostusefultotheentireplanetarysciencecommunity,includingtargetandtypeofresearch.OPAGrequeststhatNASAreleasethetotalbudgetineachofthedifferentR&Aprogramsinordertoenabletransparencyinthefundingofdifferenttypesofresearch,includingfundamentalresearch.Further,werequestthatPSDcontinuetoactivelyconsiderwhethertherearegapswithinthenewR&Astructurethatprecludethesubmissionandacceptanceofgoodproposals.

TheLegacyofCassiniandCassiniDataAnalysisProgram(CDAP)Finding:TheCDAPprogramhasbeenincrediblysuccessfulinfundinganalysisandmodelingofthewealthofdatacollectedbyCassini.Continuation,andpossiblyaugmentation,ofCDAPwillhelptobridgethelargegapbeforethenextouterSolarSystemmissionandensurethataknowledgeablecadreofouterplanetscientistswillbereadytoanalyzedatafromtheEuropamission,aswellasotherfutureouterplanetmissions.WeexpectthattheremaybeanincreaseinthenumberofCDAPproposalsoncetheCassinimissionends.WerequestthatNASAfollowthesubmissionrateandaugmentthebudgetiftheproposalrateincreasesafterCassini.

IceGiantmissionstudyforthenextDecadalSurvey

Finding:OPAGispleasedwiththeprogressbeingmadebyIceGiantpre-decadalmissionstudy,notesthathigh-science-returnideasareemerging,andlooksforwardtohavingthecompletereportatournextmeeting.

ParticipatingScientists• Finding:ParticipatingScientistprogramsprovideparticularlyhighvaluetoNASAandtothescientificcommunity,andshouldbeastandardfeatureoffuturemissions.OPAGrequeststhatNASAbeguidedbyrecommendationsinthewhitepaperthatresultsfromthistaskforce.

JunoMission•Finding:OPAGcongratulatestheJunomissionforitssuccessfulJupiterOrbitInsertion,andwelookforwardtotheresultsfromthescienceorbits.WearedisappointedthattheParticipatingScientistProgramdidnotmaterializeforJuno,andweencouragePSDtooffersuchopportunitiesforfuturemissions.