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Listed Property in SA - towards a fuller understanding of performance and prospects Presentation by Brian Kantor SAPOA Conference | Cape Town | 11 th June 2014. Outline. An overview of extraordinarily good performance by SA assets including listed Real Estate - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Listed Property in SA - towards a fuller understanding of performance and prospects
Presentation by Brian KantorSAPOA Conference | Cape Town | 11th June 2014
Outline
An overview of extraordinarily good performance by SA assets including listed Real Estate
Recent performance - property re-rates vs Bonds
Performance explained fundamentally
A look at capital raising by the sector - why it is important for the economy and property developers - and what fund managers will be looking for from the listed property sector
A focus on initial yield - why it is less important than it seems
The outlook for the SA economy and interest rates
R100 Invested Jan 1st 2004The Winner is Listed Property
1,000
500
400
300250
200
150
100
5003 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
JSE ALSI ALBIILBI SA PROPERTYS&P 500 RANDS CASH
Property
Shares
Bonds
Offshore
Cash
Ilbi
R770
R636
1,000
500
400
300250
200
150
100
5003 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
JSE ALSI ALBIILBI SA PROPERTYS&P 500 RANDS CASH
Property
Shares
Bonds
Offshore
Cash
Ilbi
R770
R636
Performance post the GFC R100 Invested January 2009 - April 2014
280
240
200
160
120
80I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
JSE ALSI All Bonds (ALBI)SA Real Estate NYSE (Rands)Cash
Shares
Property
NYSE
Bonds
Cash
280
240
200
160
120
80I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
JSE ALSI All Bonds (ALBI)SA Real Estate NYSE (Rands)Cash
Shares
Property
NYSE
Bonds
Cash
Total Returns 2013 Jan 1st 2004 to May 31st 2014
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2014m5
JSE ALL BONDSINFLATION LINKER SA PROPERTYS&P 500 RANDS CASH
SHARES
PROPERTY
BONDS
LINKERSS&P 500 RANDS
CASH
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2014m5
JSE ALL BONDSINFLATION LINKER SA PROPERTYS&P 500 RANDS CASH
SHARES
PROPERTY
BONDS
LINKERSS&P 500 RANDS
CASH
Total Returns; June 1st 2013 to May 31st 2014
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2014m5
JSE ALSI ALL BONDS ALBIALL LINKERS ILBI SA PROPERTY J253S&P 500 RANDS
SHARES
BONDS
LINKED
PROPERTY
OFFSHORE EQ
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2014m5
JSE ALSI ALL BONDS ALBIALL LINKERS ILBI SA PROPERTY J253S&P 500 RANDS
SHARES
BONDS
LINKED
PROPERTY
OFFSHORE EQ
JSE USD Values and Earnings; 1994 = 100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
IALNY/11.58703 EALNY/78.0813
JSE
Earnings USD
0
100
200
300
400
500
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
IALNY/11.58703 EALNY/78.0813
JSE
Earnings USD
JSE REAL FINDI 1994 = 100 - Prices catching up with earnings
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(FINDI/CPI)/2.088567(EAFINDI/CPI)/10.24609
REAL FINDI
Real FINDI Earnings
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(FINDI/CPI)/2.088567(EAFINDI/CPI)/10.24609
REAL FINDI
Real FINDI Earnings
SA Property and Distributions; Jan 1st 2003 = 100A justified re-rating currently 15.7 times dividends
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
400
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
PROPERTY DISTRIBUTIONS (DIVIDENDS)PROPERTY VALUATIONS
Dividends
Index Value
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
400
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
PROPERTY DISTRIBUTIONS (DIVIDENDS)PROPERTY VALUATIONS
Dividends
Index Value
SA Listed Real Estate; Market Value - A sector of growing importance
Able to raise capitalBut much has gone abroad
Much has gone offshore
Following the money
Does the sector offer diversification for fund managers?
The Betas for the Property Sector. Bonds and EquitiesLess sensitive to both markets
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BETA_PLIONALBITOP40ORTHBETA_PLIONT40ORTH
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BETA_PLIONALBITOP40ORTHBETA_PLIONT40ORTH
Initial Yields - All Shares vs SA Property
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
JSE All Share Dividend YieldJSE SA Property Dividend Yield
Property
Shares0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
JSE All Share Dividend YieldJSE SA Property Dividend Yield
Property
Shares
JSE Property and All Share Indexes; Dividend Flows March 2002 = 100
500
400350300
250
200
150
100
5002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Property Dividend FlowJSE Dividend Flow
ALSI
Property
500
400350300
250
200
150
100
5002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Property Dividend FlowJSE Dividend Flow
ALSI
Property
Growth in Dividends All Shares vs Property
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Property Dividends Growth SmoothedJSE ALSI Dividends Growth smoothed
Alsi
Property
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Property Dividends Growth SmoothedJSE ALSI Dividends Growth smoothed
Alsi
Property
Property vs All Shares; Growth in dividendsProperty Dividends - About half as fast but a third as variable
Growth in DividendsSample: 2002M03 2015M10
Property ALSI
Mean 6.67 14.86 Median 5.59 20.57 Maximum 22.73 43.53 Minimum -7.77 -41.42 Std. Dev. 6.08 18.77 Skewness 0.05 -1.27 Kurtosis 2.83 4.20 Observations 134 134
SA Property Dividend Flows and CPI 2003.12 = 100Beating Inflation - can it continue to do so
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
SA listed property DistributionsCPI
Prop Dividends
CPI
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
SA listed property DistributionsCPI
Prop Dividends
CPI
Equity vs Bonds vs Property; Initial YieldsBonds>property>equity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
JSE ALSISA PropertyRSA 10 year
Property
Bonds
Equity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
JSE ALSISA PropertyRSA 10 year
Property
Bonds
Equity
Equities Bonds and Property Yield Gaps
-4
0
4
8
12
16
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Bonds - Equities Initial YieldsBond Yield- Property YieldProperty -Equity Yield
Bonds-Property
Bonds -Equities
Property-equity
-4
0
4
8
12
16
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Bonds - Equities Initial YieldsBond Yield- Property YieldProperty -Equity Yield
Bonds-Property
Bonds -Equities
Property-equity
SA property realised and required dividend growth
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Growth in Property DividendsGrowth Implied by Bond Yields and 2% risk premium
Realised growth
Required Growth
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Growth in Property DividendsGrowth Implied by Bond Yields and 2% risk premium
Realised growth
Required Growth
Property and Inflation Linked YieldsIs property Inflation protected?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation Linked Index YieldProperty Index Dividend Yield
SAPDY
ILBI
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation Linked Index YieldProperty Index Dividend Yield
SAPDY
ILBI
The Real Yield Gap – Property less Inflation Linkers – is there an inflation adjusted return case for property?
3
4
5
6
7
8
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Nominal Returns: Property vs Inflation Linkers
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nominal Return Listed propertyNominal Return Inflation Linkers
Property
Inflation Linkers
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nominal Return Listed propertyNominal Return Inflation Linkers
Property
Inflation Linkers
Property vs Inflation LinkersComparing Risk Adjusted Performance - the Sharp ratio is much superior for listed property
Sample: 2004M12 2014M05Excess ReturnsProperty Linkers
Mean 8.40 1.20 Median 8.04 1.67 Maximum 20.38 3.53 Minimum 0.53 -1.17 Std. Dev. 4.06 1.28 Skewness 0.58 -0.13 Kurtosis 3.25 1.77
Jarque-Bera 6.54 7.48 Probability 0.04 0.02
Sum 949.60 135.29 Sum Sq. Dev. 1844.77 183.06
Observations 113.00 113.00
Sharp ratio 2.07 0.94
Acucap vs Growth Point; Dividends and Dividend YieldSame growth - different yield
80
120
160
200
240
280
4
6
8
10
12
14
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
ACUCAP DIVIDENDSGROWTH POINT DIVIDENDSACP Dividend YieldGRT Dividend Yield
Dividend Y
ieldD
ivid
end
Flow
80
120
160
200
240
280
4
6
8
10
12
14
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
ACUCAP DIVIDENDSGROWTH POINT DIVIDENDSACP Dividend YieldGRT Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield
Div
iden
d F
low
Dividend Flows; ACP & GRT vs Index 2003=100
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
ACP GRT SAPY (J253)
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
ACP GRT SAPY (J253)
Initial Dividend Yield and subsequent relative performanceThe DY relative to the index DY at each time point and compares it to the subsequent 12m return relative to the index. There is no link.
SA Risk Premium Daily Data to June 6th 2014
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.6
6.0
6.4
III IV I II III IV I II
2012 2013 2014
RSA and USA Long Bond Yields
6
7
8
9
10
11
1
2
3
4
5
6
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
SAGB10 USGB10
<<<RSA
USTB>>
6
7
8
9
10
11
1
2
3
4
5
6
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
SAGB10 USGB10
<<<RSA
USTB>>
Yield Spread and ZAR; Daily Data 2014
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
10.2
10.4
10.6
10.8
11.0
11.2
11.4
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6
2014
SPREAD ZAR
YIEL
D S
PR
EAD
ZAR
<<<SPREAD
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
10.2
10.4
10.6
10.8
11.0
11.2
11.4
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6
2014
SPREAD ZAR
YIE
LD S
PRE
AD
ZAR
<<<SPREAD
RSA Sovereign Risk premium
May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-1450
100
150
200
250
300
Sovereign risk premium
Boston Consulting Group applied to Return on Capital
Applying Holt Analytics to SA Property