Outline

Context

India’s Concerns

Status of Knowledge

Studies in Initial NATCOM

Features and Limitations

Approaches for Second NATCOM

Approach to Mainstreaming V&A

Context and Concerns

NATCOM is a reporting obligation under Article 12 of the UNFCCC

Current understanding indicates that adverse impacts of climate change will be on

Water resources

Agriculture - food security

Natural ecosystems such as forests

Coastal zones

Human health

and

Consequent impact on economic development

The Setting India is a vast country (3.28 million sq km)

Human population of > 1000 million and livestock population of 475 million

Diverse physiographic features - Himalayas, Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau and islands

Occupies 2.4% of the worlds land area but support 16.2% of the worlds human population

Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon

Endowed with varied soils, climate, biodiversity and ecological regions

Agriculture is less than 25% of GDP and supports 650 million people

Coal is the dominant source of energy (47% of total commercial energy)

Under such diverse natural conditions, a billion people speaking different languages, following different religions, inhabiting in rural and urban areas live in harmony under a democratic system

Status of Current Knowledge

•Fragmentary

•High degree of uncertainty with all impact projections

•Uncertainties arise because of

-Limited understanding of many critical processes in the climate system

-Existence of multiple climatic and non-climatic stresses

-regional scale variations and non-linearities

-Future itself is not easy to predict with confidence

Spatial patterns of projected seasonal surface air temperature change (°C) by HadRM2 for 2050s relative to 1990s, under transient increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. (SRES A2 & B2)

Temperature and Precipitation Projections in 2050s

Spatial patterns of projected seasonal precipitation change (mm) by HadRM2 for 2050s relative to 1990s, under transient increase of greenhouse gas concentrations (SRES A2 & B2)

Seasonal Temperature projections Seasonal Precipitation projections

Water resources: An Overview

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Mahanadi

Bra

hm

ani

Ganga

Godavari

Cauvery

Narm

ada

Tapi

Krishna

Pennar

Mahi

Luni

Sabarm

ati

River Basins

Ch

an

ge f

rom

cu

rren

t to

fu

ture

%

Rainfall Runoff ET

Acute physical water scarce conditionsConstant water scarcities and shortageSeasonal / regular stressed conditionsRare water shortages

Change (%) in water balance for Control and GHG climate scenarios

General decrease in rice yield with increase in temperature

Iso-yield line of wheat shift northwards and reduces in area

Eastern regions projected to be most impacted by temperature increase & reduced radiation, resulting in fewer grain yield and shorter grain filling duration

In Northern India, the potential reduction in yields will be offset by higher radiation, lessening the impacts of climate change

Addition CO2 may benefit crops but will be nullified by increase in temperature

Agriculture: An Overview

2.5t/ha (Control)

4.5/ha (Climate Change)

4.5t/ha (Control)

2.5/ha (Climate Change)

Coastal Zones: An Overview

Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

Hazard based analysis of impacts of cyclones on districts indicates Jagatsinghpur in Orissa to be the most vulnerable

Forestry : An overview

Expected biome types under climate projections in 2050.

Present Biome Types

Dry savannah

Xeric Shrub land

Xeric woodland

Tropical Seasonal Forest

Boreal Evergreen

Tundra

Forest types are likely to shift

Xeric Shrubland and Xeric woodlands are likely to be the dominant species under enhanced temperature situations

ROURK ELA

MANDL A

CHENN AI

CARNIC OBAR

SONAP UR

KHEDA

HARDWAR HALDWANI

SHAHJA HANPUR

ALLAHA BAD

T W O p e n fo r m o nths

4-6

7-9

10-12

N.A

CARNIC OBAR

4-6

7-9

10-12

N.A

T W O p e n fo r m o nths

(a) (b)

Transmission windows of malaria in different states of India (a) in 2000 and (b) in 2080

Health: An Overview

Malaria may penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and some coastal areas.

10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000

Vulnerability and Adaptation in NATCOM-1

Features / Limitations – NATCOM 1

Impacts and Vulnerability Studies

• Impact assessment is made using climate change projections based on a single model outputs (RCM Had RM2) and single scenario

• Uncertainty in projections of climate parameters at regional level

• Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional level (forests, crop production, water)

Features / Limitations – NATCOM 1

Adaptation • Preliminary assessments made for different sectors;

including assessment of current policies and programmes in relation to vulnerability

• Further analysis needed to identify adaptation technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs

Constrained by• Limited data availability• Limited time (<12 months) and resources

HencePRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS

Need for improving future V&A studies

• Need for improved and reliable regional climate models and climate projections for impact assessment

• Need for improved climate change impact or response models - Sectoral, Regional, & Integrated

• Appropriate data generation for modeling• Assessment of impacts at regional level & identification of

vulnerable regions, socio-economic systems• Development of adaptation strategies and a framework of

Adaptation• Networking of institutions, capacity building, sustained

research teams• Financial and institutional support needed

Proposed Approach for the Second National Communication

The scope of work in SNC contemplates

Generation of climate change scenarios derived from the recent generation of regional or global climate models (HadRM3, PRECIS, and other AOGCMs) and mapping of climatically vulnerable regions.

Development of socio economic scenarios at national level, analogous to the relevant SRES scenarios capturing India’s

developmental path.

Improvement of the impact assessments of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forestry, natural ecosystems,

coastal zones, human health, energy and infrastructure carried out in INC.

Contd.

Development of integrated vulnerability frameworks and adaptation options (and hence adaptation frameworks) to establish linkages between

socio economic scenarios and water resources and agriculture productivity and hence food security;

human health associated with climate change and the changing profile of extreme events;

vulnerabilities due to the impacts on forests and other natural ecosystem products;

sea level rise and vulnerabilities of a coastal zone

an assessment of the vulnerabilities of energy systems and infrastructure

Approaches in Second National Communication

Integrated Vulnerability Assessment

In order to develop the integrated frameworks, case studies will be carried out in the identified hotspots to

Assess the associated physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities;

Aanalyse the current coping mechanisms operational at the local level (indigenous strategies / policies and programmes / institutional mechanisms /technological options and risk sharing measures) to combat climate variability;

Identify the incremental measures required to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change and

Develop adaptation frameworks for these case studies) that will provide inputs for the development of national framework for adaptation, and hence help devise adaptation strategies through linkages to the Adaptation Learning Mechanism

Socio-Economic Scenarios

Climate Change & Variability

Water

Food security

Agriculture

Livelihood

Livelihood Health

Coastal Zones Livelihood

Infrastructure

Forests

Livelihood

Natural Ecosystems

Water & Climate

Integrated Vulnerability Assessment – A Conceptual Framework

Key Tasks for Addressing Vulnerability and Adaptation Needs

Geographic Hierarchy

Strategies

Local National Regional/ Global

Capacity Building Monitoring, observation Awareness/assessment at state/ district/ community levels

Scientific assessment, measurement, models, national research agenda

Participation in global/ regional modeling and assessments

Knowledge/Information

Locale specific databases, scenarios and assessment, local monitoring networks

Research networks, National databases (e.g. NATCOM), scientific and policy models, national scenarios, technology inventory

Interface with IPCC assessments, interfacing with regional/global databases, scenarios and assessments, technology inventory database

Continued…

Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and adaptation needs

Geographic Hierarchy

Strategies

Local National Regional/ Global

Institutions/ Partnerships

Community initiatives, Early warning networks

Stakeholders networks, public/ private programs

FCCC processes, trans-boundary impacts assessment

Policy/ Instruments Local specific adaptation plans, community based adaptation programs

Science-policy linkage, economic instruments (e.g. insurance, R&D funds), integration with national development/ planning process

Adaptation funds, trans-boundary regulations

Continued…

Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and adaptation needs

Geographic Hierarchy

Strategies

Local National Regional/ Global

Technology Locale specific technology adaptation

Targeted R&D, Technology transfer protocols, demonstration/ pilot projects

Scientific exchange, technology transfer

Approach to Mainstreaming V&A in NATCOM 

A broad based Participatory approach involving concerned stakeholders through

• Focused thematic training workshops for enhancing the assessment capacities of researchers;

• Inter-sectoral workshops to facilitate integration of the assessments;

• Conduct workshops to sensitise the policymakers, media, and NGOs about the outputs of the assessments;

• Disseminate results amongst the general public using web-based and print media

• Establish synergies with other ongoing V&A projects

Natcom Web site

NATCOM Web site

A website has been created and it houses information on all the activities carried out under the aegis of NATCOM including information on NATCOM network,events organized, presentations, publications and related web links and now the national communication

www.natcomindia.org

BROCHURES BOOKS