outline - us clivar · 2020-01-03 · mul7-model strategy gmu us clivar summit – baltimore – 9...
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US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
Outline• Background– Whatcamefirst–theInterna7onalS2SPredic7onProject• NOAA/MAPPS2SPredic7onEffort– TaskForce– Keyscienceques7ons– PIs/Projects• SubX–NorthAmericanSubseasonalExperiment• Summary
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US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
ForecastGapbetweenWeather&Climate
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US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
Subseasonal-to-Seasonal(S2S)• Interna7onalS2SPredic7onProject:hTp://s2spredic7on.net/– Opera7onalforecastcenters(11)par7cipate,provideensemblehistoricalre-forecastsandnear-real-7meforecasts–allcurrentlyhavedataonline.
– Eachcenterfollowsitsownopera7onalprotocols,outputdataaresupposedtomeetS2Sstandards(mandatoryvariables,units,etc.)
– Datare-distributedbyECMWF(primary)andCMA(secondary);IRI(limitedsubset);primarilydailymeans,mul7pleensemblemembers,outto30-60days;forecastsini7alized1-287mesperweek.
– Comingtoendoforiginal5-yearmandate,preparingaproposalforanother5years;wanttostandardizemorebetweenmodelingcenters,expandlistofoutputvariables,newsub-projects,enhanceinfrastructureanduserapplica7ons…
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US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
S2SSubprojects• Teleconnec7onsisanewsubproject,juststartedin2016.• Othersareongoing.• Allrepresentspecificscien7ficapplica7onsofS2Sdata.
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• Eachhasleadership/membership,ascienceplanandaWikipageats2spredic7on.net• LiaisewithelementsofWWRP,WCRP,otherregionalS2Sefforts.
US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
NOAA/MAPPS2SPredic7onProject• ProgramManager:HeatherArchambault–ClimatePredic7onOffice(CPO);Modeling,Analysis,Predic7onsandProjec7ons(MAPP)project• 14fundedprojects(2016-2019)wereselectedfromproposalstoatargetedNOAAfundingopportunityin2015• Mission:“…toadvanceNOAA’sandtheNa7on’scapabilitytomodelandpredictsourcesofS2Spredictability.Theul7mategoalofthisini7a7veistohelpclosethegapinpredic7onskillandproductsbetweentradi7onalweatherandseasonallead7mes.”
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US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
TermsofReference• S2SPredic7onTaskForce(S2STF)coordinatesac7vi7es,fosterscollabora7onamongPIsandexternalefforts.• Lead:ElizabethBarnes;Co-leads:PaulDirmeyer,EdmundChang,AndreaLang,KathyPegion• MAPPProgrammanagementoverseesTaskForceac7vi7es,workingwiththeleads.• PIssupportedthroughtheMAPPFY16S2Sresearchcompe77onpar7cipateintheTaskForce,asdescribedintheirproposals.Otherwise,par7cipa7oninS2STFisbyinvita7on.• MostS2STFworkisconductedremotelyviamonthlytelecons,virtualmee7ngs,orleveragingmee7ngsofopportunity.
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US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
S2STF–KeyQues7ons
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US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer 8
US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
PIs/Projects
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co-Is Title LeadInst.
1 Barnes,Libby EricMaloney Forecas7ngNorthPacificBlockingandAtmosphericRiverProbabili7es:Sensi7vitytoModelPhysicsandtheMJO CSU
2 Camargo,SuzanaAdamSobel(Columbia),Cha-YingLee(IRI)
Therela7onshipoftropicalcyclonestoMJOandENSOintheS2Sdatabase LDEO
3 Chang,Edmund
MinghuaZhang,HyemiKim,WanqiuWang(CPC)
UnderstandingtheSourcesofSubseasonalPredictabilityofExtratropicalCycloneAc7vityandImprovingTheirRepresenta7oninForecastSystems
StonyBrook
4 DeMoT,CharloTe NickKlingaman(Reading)
Collabora7veResearch:AssessingOceanicPredictabilitySourcesforMJOPropaga7on CSU
5 Ford,Trent PaulDirmeyer(GMU)
NorthAmericanHeatWavePredictability:AssessingtheRoleofLandSurfaceIni7aliza7ononS2SandNMMEModelForecasts SIU
6 Furtado,Jason
MicheleL-Heureux,AdamAllgood(CPC),LibbyBarnes(CSU)
Inves7ga7ngtheUnderlyingMechanismsandPredictabilityoftheMJO/NAMLinkageintheNMMEPhase-2Models Oklahoma
7 Guo,Zhichang PaulDirmeyerImprovingsubseasonaltoseasonalforecastskillofNorthAmericanprecipita7onandsurfaceairtemperatureusingamul7-modelstrategy
GMU
US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
PIs/Projects(cont’d)
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8 Hoover,Brent MaTNewman(ESRL)
Predic7on,Sensi7vity,andDynamicsofSubseasonalToSeasonalPhenomenaDiagnosedThroughLinearInverseModels,TheirAdjoints,andNumericalWeatherPredic7onModels
Wisconsin
9 Kumar,Arun WanqiuWang,JieshunZhu ExploringPathwaystoimproveMJOPredic7ons CPC
10 AndreaLang(co-lead)
Acategoricalassessmentofforecastskill,uncertaintyandbiasesinextended-rangeensembleforecastsofstratosphericregimechanges
Albany
11 Perlwitz,Judy
JadwigaRichter(NCAR),LantaoSun(CIRES),JulioBacmeister(NCAR)
Roleofstratosphericprocessesinpredic7ngENSO-NAOconnec7onsonsubseasonal7mescale ESRL
12 Szunyogh,Istvan Inves7ga7onoftheEffectsofOceanicMesoscaleEddiesontheMidla7tudeStormTracksandTheirPredictability TexasA&M
13 Wang,Shuguang AdamSobel,MichaelTippeT
MaddenJulianOscilla7on--theMari7meCon7nentbarrierandseamlessverifica7on Columbia
14 Wang,ZhuoMelindaPeng(NRL),StanBenjamin(ESRL)
VariabilityofRossbyWaveBreakinganditsImpactsontheLarge-scaleCircula7onandExtremeWeather:Implica7onsforS2SPredic7onandPredictability
Illinois
US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
S2SSubprojects• Teleconnec7onsisanewsubproject,juststartedthisyear.• Othersareongoing.• Allrepresentspecificscien7ficapplica7onsofS2Sdata.
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• Eachhasleadership/membership,ascienceplanandaWikipageats2spredic7on.net• RepresentanotherpointforGLASSintereststointerfacewithS2S.
US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
S2STF–KickoffMee7ng• EarlyDecember2016atIRI/LDEOinconjunc7onwithaworkshoponS2SpredictabilityofextremesandInt’lS2SSGmee7nghTp://iri.columbia.edu/s2s-extremes-workshop-2016/.• S2STFinforma7onatCPO:hTps://7nyurl.com/s2sr-mapp• AlsoaprivateWikiforS2STFmembers
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US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
OthersinvolvedinS2STF• ClimateTestBed(CTB)“SubX”(SubseasonaleXperiment)PIs(also3-yearprojects)– BenKirtman&KathyPegionlead– ParallelsInterna7onalS2SinmanywaysbutNAmodelsonly,synchronizedICdates,morestaunchaboutoutputvariables.
• Interna7onalS2SPredic7onProjectleadership(F.Vitart,A.Robertson)• WWRP(PaoloRu7)&WCRP(MichelRixen)
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US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
N.Am.SubseasonalExperiment(SubX)• SubXisalsoasub-seasonalforecast/hindcastexperimenthTp://cola.gmu.edu/subx/.DiffersfromS2Sinthefollowingways:
• Evolvedfromtheseasonalpredic7onpredecessor:NMME(NorthAmericanMul7-ModelEnsemble)–focusremainsonmul7–modelensembletechniques
• OnlyNorthAmericanmodelsinvolved,includesresearchmodels• AllmodelssynchronizeICdates(weekly),outputdatagrid(1o),land/seamask,periodofhindcasts
• No7meembargoonreal-7meforecasts• Hindcastsshouldbecompletedbyendof2017;real-7meforecastsduring2018-2019.
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US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
SubX–Models:
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Model Resolu4on LSM Length Ens.Size
NCEPCFSv2 A:T126,O:¼°to½° Noah 45d 4/day
NCEPGEFS T574toT382 Noah 35d 20
ECCCGEM 0.45° CLASS 32d 4
NASAGEOS5 A:½°,O:½° Catchment 45d 10
NavyESM A:T359,O:0.08° Bucket 45d 4
NCARCCSM4 A:~1°,O:1°to¼° CLM3 45d 3-4/day
ESRL*FIMHYCOM 30km Noah 32d 4
*Partner
US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
SubX–CoreTeam• BenKirtman,UniversityofMiami,RSMAS,CIMAS• KathyPegion,GeorgeMasonUniversity,COLA– TimDelSole,GeorgeMasonUniversity,COLA– MichaelTippeT,ColumbiaUniversity– AndyRobertson,IRI,ColumbiaUniversity– RobertBurgman,FloridaInterna7onalUniversity– HaiLin,EnvironmentCanada– JonGoTschalck,NOAA/NCEP/ClimatePredic7onCenter– DanCollins,NOAA/NCEP/ClimatePredic7onCenter
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US CLIVAR Summit – Baltimore – 9 August 2017 Paul A. Dirmeyer
S2STFSummary• MJO,stratosphere,ENSO,NAO/NAM,stormtracks,blocking,Rossbywavebreaking,atmosphericrivers,land-atmosphereinterac7ons,oceaneddies–allmaycontributetopredictableextremesonS2S7mescales.
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• S2STFfacilitatesscien7ficcollabora7onandcoordinatescommunica7onbetweeninterestedresearchers,includingrelatedinterna7onalefforts.