outlook for australian property markets 2010-2012...affordable states in the country in which to...

Outlook for Australian

Property Markets 2010-2012

Melbourne



Melbourne Residential

Expected population slowdown hasn’t occurred as

immigrant growth remains at high…

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000Natural increase

International migration

Interstate migration

• Our expectations that the global and even

local economic slowdown would impact on the

numbers of immigrants has not eventuated. In

fact the numbers of migrants surged to a

record high in 1Q 2009.

• Total population growth in the year to June

2009 totalled some 114,000 people, again a

new record, as was the growth rate of 2.1%

• While 70% of the net growth came from

international migration, natural increase

(births-deaths) add the other 30%.

• Interstate migration while not a major

contributor, did show a positive figures for the

first year since 2002/3. Balanced interstate

migration has been important for Victoria’s

population growth in the 2000s, as the net loss

seen in the 1980s and 1990s (an average of

12,000 people per annum) was not repeated.

Source: ABS

Population growth - VIC

Growth - persons

With most of Victoria’s population growth

happening in Melbourne

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000VictoriaMelbourneMelbourne % of total

• Victoria’s strong population growth has

largely been concentrated in the capital.

Over the past seven years over 80% of the

State’s population growth has been

concentrated in Melbourne .

• While this majority could be expected in

2009 and onwards, there has been a

noticeable trend that the proportion of

growth has been slowing. In 2007 and

2008 the level was close to 80%, as

opposed to the high 80% mark in early

2000s.

• However, such was the surge in

population in the year to June 2009 in

Victoria, that the population growth in

Melbourne is likely to have lifted well

above the 75,000 of 2007 and 2008. At a

proportion of 80% the growth would have

been almost 93,000 people.

Population growth year to June

- Melbourne and Victoria

Strong recovery through the year as confidence

lifted and stimulus absorbed

• The generous first home buyers (FHB)

boost plus 50-year low interest rates at a

time of rising sentiment has led to an

active market.

• The owner occupier market rose to recordhighs in terms of numbers of financecommitments approved to buy property.While population growth will have helped,rising confidence would also have drivenactivity.

• Strongest growth was in the finance toconstruct, which rose 125% from the lowsof early 2008 boosted by FHBs.

• New home finance was also up animpressive 69% from late 2008 lows.

• The largest part of the market, finance tobuy an existing home, rose by animpressive but lesser 35% from late 2008.

• While the Federal government has endedthe stimulus for FHBS, the Stategovernment has boosted their own FHBgrant to buy new or construct to mid 2010.

Finance commitments to buy or construct

new or to buy existing dwellings – Vic3 monthly moving totals

Source: ABS

Analysis: Westpac Property

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000 Construct

New

Existing

No o

f finance c

om

mitm

ents

to c

onstr

uct or

buy

new

Exis

ting h

om

es

First home buyers holding up better than

expected, but will slow in 2010

• As expected in last years forecasts, first homebuyers (FHBs) took advantage of theincentives offered. However, the success ofthe scheme was far stronger than we hadanticipated with growth of 81% to mid 2009from the lows of October 2008.

• We had expected a slowdown once the grantended and while that has occurred with a fallof 7%, the market has also held up far betterthan expected. In fact much better than mostother States. An offer of an additional $11,000to buy or build new homes by the Stategovernment was initiated in mid 2009, partreplacing the wind down from the Federalgovernment’s boost. This additional Stategrant expires in mid 2010. Although thepopulation growth may be holding FHBs higherthan in the past, we consider that even with theadditional grant, there is a natural expirationdue through 2010.

• The low interest rates and renewed confidencehas meant that the far larger existing owneroccupier market has lifted and held wellthrough the recent tightening phase of theRBA. While further interest rates hikes willsubdue future growth, we consider thatdemand from this sector will remain high.

FHBs vs. Existing owners – Vic3-month rolling

Source: ABS

Analysis: Westpac Economics

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

First home buyers

Existing owners ex-refi

FHBs Existing owners

Investors recovery started and should continue

into 2010

• Investors returned to the Victorian residentialmarket in Q2 2009, with an increase of around27% in nominal borrowing and 15% in priceadjusted.

• However, the market slowed in Q3 2009, withdeclines of 9% and 12% respectively. Signsof improvement were showing again towardsthe end of the year, despite higher interestrates.

• Although the nominal value loan commitmentssuggest the market remained healthy throughthe period of high interest rates and then lowconfidence, the high price growth in 2007would have inflated loan sizes. The priceadjusted activity shows how activity, while notplummeting the depths seen before, slowedsignificantly. The fall in activity during Q3 goesagainst anecdotal evidence of continuedinvestor activity, particularly for inner cityapartments during 2H 2009.

• Given strong price growth in 2H 2009, strongpopulation growth and continued improvementin the economy, investor activity shouldcontinue to improve into 2010.

Investor Finance - Vic

Source: ABS

Analysis: Westpac Economics

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

$1,200,000

$1,300,000

$1,400,000

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$4,500,000

Investor finance

Price adjusted

Investor finance Price adjusted

Approvals lift to 7 year high however not enough to

meet demand

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000 Houses Other dwellings

• Total dwellings for 2009 amounted to 36,075. This

was the highest annual total since 2002. The trend

was for both houses and other dwellings.

• Dwelling approvals for houses in Q3 2009 were

35% higher than in Q4 2008 while other dwellings

increased by 58%.

• There was a minor decline for houses in Q4,

however, such was the growth through the year

that they remained above quarterly levels since

2001.

• In Census 2006 Melbourne averaged of 2.6

persons per dwelling , which for population growth

of 75,000 would need 28,850 dwellings. Since

1985, an average of 98% of approvals have

actually commenced. If Victoria’s demolition rate of

0.6% is applied, some 8,920 dwellings would have

been demolished.

• Taking this into account, the 36,075 approvals

would net down to around 26,434 dwellings. This

is below requirements, even with the highest

approvals for 7 yearsSource: ABS


Dwelling approvals - Melbourne

Number

Low vacancy and end of stimulus to drive rents

higher from mid 2010

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

Other dwelling median rent

Vacancy rate

• Higher supply combined with the move of

FHBs, has led to a minor increase in vacancy

to 1.3% as at Q3 2009.

• Last year we forecast that low interest rates

would reduce the need for landlords to lift rents

and that many would avoid pushing tenants

into taking the attractive FHB boost. Average

rents rose 3.5% in the year to September

2009. Average annual growth was 9.2% per

annum over the previous five years.

• With interest rates rising and low vacancy,

landlords can start lifting rents. However, the

State Government’s own FHB boost to June

2010 should ensure any major increases are

held back until after mid year.

• Although affordability may play a part in the

ability to raise rents, Victoria is one of the most

affordable States in the country in which to

rent, at 22.5% of household income.

Source: REIA

Melbourne rent and vacancy

Rent per week

Yields to continue falling until mid year, slight

increases thereafter

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Yield

Mortgage rate

• The stronger than expected price growth in

the second half of the year and the low

rental growth has led to yields falling once

again. Our forecast was for yields close to

4.8% by end 2009 and although yields did

start to rise as prices fell in early 2009, they

fell in 2H 2009 to 4.1% as at September

2009.

• With rising mortgage rates and the end of

the FHB boost in mid 2010 for Victoria, rents

should start to increase and values flatten

out in the second half of the year.

• Although yields are likely to have fallen

further in Q4 2009 and possibly into Q1

2010, our forecast for the year is for yields of

around 4% by year end.

• This would keep Melbourne yields as the

lowest in the country.

Source: REIA, RBA

Forecasts: Westpac Property

Yield/rate

Yield (2 bedroom other dwelling) and

mortgage rate - Melbourne

Price surge from March 2009 unsustainable

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Median house prices

Median other dwelling

Inflation adjusted house

Inflation adjusted other dwelling

• Our expectation for possible further price falls

did occur in early 2009. In Q1 2009 prices

were some 6% (other dwellings) to 14%

(houses) off their 2007 peak. Falls in the six

months to March 2009 were between 2.5%

(other dwelling) and 5.5% (houses) as

negative sentiment impacted on activity and

prices.

• However, from March 2009 renewed

confidence through job gains, combined with

surging FHBs drove Melbourne prices up by

between 14% (other dwellings) and 18%

(houses) in the six months to September.

This is considered to have continued into Q4.

• Such growth rates are unsustainable and will

slow through 2010. However, with renewed

economic confidence and job growth, stability

or even minor price gains can be expected

through the year.

Melbourne house and unit prices

$000s

Source: REIA

Westpac Property analysis

$000s

Pressure to increase on affordability, which should

subdue price gains

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

Affordability (lhs)

Mortgage rate (rhs)

• The latest affordability measure is to Q3

2009, before the rate hikes and continued

price gains of Q4. As at Q3 2009 mortgage

repayments accounted for 28.2% of the

average household income. We estimate

this would have risen to 31.6%, by end Q4,

above the considered 30% mortgage stress

level, but well below the 38% of late 2007.

• Should the mortgage rate rise by a further

75bps, median prices could rise by 15%

before repayments reached the previous

high of 38% of household income (allowing

for 4% growth in income).

• Should a more conservative 5% growth be

achieved in prices from Q4 and debt

increases proportionately, mortgage

repayments would rise to around 35% of

income, which should ensure a more

subdued price growth in 2010.

Mortgage rate

Affordability and mortgage rate

- Melbourne

Source: REIA and RBA

Household income allocated

to mortgage (%)



Melbourne Offices

Melbourne CBD Office market continues to surprise

on the upside

• Net supply of 100,000m2 was lower than

anticipated as some projects slipped into 2010.

This allowed vacancy to rise to a lower than

expected 6.6% by end 2009. We had forecast

8.6%.

• Last year we suggested that Melbourne’s

recent history of out performance could drive

flat occupancy. While correct in 1H 2009,

occupancy grew by almost 22,000m2 in 2H

2009.

• Supply levels are slowing as new starts were

low in 2009. 107,000m2 is under construction

and due mostly in 1H 2010 however rising

confidence should lift withdrawals and reduce

net supply in 2011 and 2012.

• Melbourne CBD’s recent out-performance does

not look to be abating. Employment intention

surveys and forecasts suggest strong future

employment growth. While we have tempered

the impact a little, high net absorption continues

to be forecast for 2010 and 2011, reducing

vacancy to 5% by end 2010 and 4% in 2011.Source: Historical data: PCA OMR – January 2010


Net absorption, net supply and vacancy

– Melbourne CBD

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Net absorptionNet supplyVacancy rate

Forecast

Square metres

St Kilda Road Office market continues to slow

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000Net absorption

Net supply

Vacancy rate

Forecast

• Our forecasts that the St Kilda Road market

would be more affected by the recession

were correct. However, our forecast of

occupancy falling by 17,000m2 proved too

low as net absorption fell by 27,000m2, or

almost 4% of occupied stock. As such

vacancy rose to 11.3%

• In fact occupied space at the end of 2009

was below that at the start of the decade,

with net absorption falling in five of the ten

years. This is in stark contrast to the out-

performance of the CBD.

• Although we have not forecast this trend to

continue, it is difficult to forecast any

improvement. However, with prime

vacancy in St Kilda Road at over 10%, and

over 32,000m2 available, the opportunity for

an inexpensive relocation could help lift the

market.Source: Historical data: PCA OMR – January 2010


Net absorption, net supply and vacancy

– St Kilda Road

Square metres

Melbourne CBD prime office market rents to

recover in 2010 and surge in 2011.

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

Rents

incentives

• Melbourne CBD prime office rents fell by

almost 13% in 2009, but signs of stability

emerged in Q4 2009. Surprisingly St Kilda

Road rents fell by a lesser 9% for the year,

despite the weaker performance. Our forecast

was for CBD rents to fall by 15% in 2009 and

7% in 2010.

• Incentives rose to around 20% by Q3 2009 and

stabilised in Q4. This is similar to the 2000

downturn. However, with the vacancy lower

than expected, rental falls are no longer

predicted in 2010.

• Should CBD vacancy fall to around 5% in

2010, we expect incentives to fall to around

15%, with supply completions in 1H 2009

keeping them relatively high. This would

generate effective rental growth of 8%.

However, growth should accelerate to 12% in

2011 as incentive falls to 10% and face rents

rise.Source: CB Richard Ellis historic data to December 2009

Forecast: Westpac Property

Prime net effective rents & incentives

- Melbourne CBD

Rents ($/m2) Incentives

Melbourne CBD prime office market attractive with

yields at 10-year average

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

CBD St Kilda Rd

10 year avg CBD 10 year avg SKR

• As expected yields continued to ease in

early 2009, towards their 10-year averages.

However, while rents did not reflect the

market fundamentals, yields have.

• CBD prime yields eased by 68bps during

2009, although fell slightly in Q4. St Kilda

Road prime office yields eased by 148bps

over 2009, with stability in Q4.

• CBD office yields are now around their 10-

year averages while St Kilda Road is well

above.

• In an improving environment, yields could

well start to firm, slowly at first, from mid

year, as the likelihood of rental growth

increases. St Kilda Road yields, while

attractive at 9.4% should remain unchanged,

reflecting the market risk, unless vacancy

falls significantly.Source: CB Richard Ellis historic data to December 2009,

Forecast: Westpac Property

Office yields and 10 year average

- Melbourne

Yield



Melbourne Retail

Retail sales growth to stabilise at below average

levels

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Retail sales growth

Inflation adjusted sales growth

Forecast

• Strong population growth and various forms

of stimulus helped drive retail spending

some 4.5% higher in 2009. This was well

below the average 6.3% annual growth

despite being buoyed by the fiscal stimulus

in 1H 2009.

• Retail sales rose by 4.2% in the first half,

before slowing to just 0.2% growth in the

second half of the year. While

disappointing, it should be reflected that 2H

had no direct stimulus from cash handouts,

although some flow though would have been

inevitable.

• Expectations from Access Economics are

for below average growth of around 5%

through the forecast period. Although

understandable for 2010, it appears low

against the improving economy scenario

thereafter.Source: ABS

Forecast: Access Economics

Change on same qtr in previous year (%)

Change in retail sales - Victoria

Victoria’s smaller retailers starting to feel the strain

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0 Sample (small retailers)

CE (larger retailers)

• The breakdown of retail spending by

smaller retailers, where the ABS takes a

sample of retailers, and larger retailers

who are completely enumerated (CE),

shows how the market changed over

2009.

• While showing the impact of the handouts

in 1H 2009, smaller retailers struggled to

maintain spending at the same level as in

the corresponding quarter in 2008 in 2H

2009. Q4 2009 sales were 1% lower than

in Q4 2008.

• Although the larger retailers also slowed,

they maintained a healthy, above average

8.5% growth rate.

Source: ABS

Forecast: Access Economics

Change on same qtr in previous year (%)

Change in retail sales - Victoria

Spending on food retains stable growth rate;

department stores and other retailing the slowest

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

• Analysis of spending by category

reveals increase across all sectors,

except department stores. While some

of this may have been due to major

refurbishments to CBD stores, the

extent of decline suggest it was more

than just that.

• Food delivered its usual strong growth,

although this year driven much higher

by the population growth and a huge

surge in spending on liquor, which was

up almost 24%.

• Hospitality also surged, and while

household good spending was steady,

it could improve as the rising number of

residential dwelling approvals are

completed in 2010.

Source: ABS

Annual change in retail spending

by sector - Victoria

Change (%)

Short term supply appears low, but potential is

high, particularly in bulky goods

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

Under Construction DA Proposed

• Not surprisingly retail shopping centre

space under construction had fallen by

end 2009 to 167,600m2 from 426,000m2 a

year earlier. However, only 71,000m2 is

due in 2010.

• Bulky goods and neighbourhood retail

dominate, with over 70% between them.

• Projects with a DA in place amount to

almost 380,000m2, the majority in bulky

goods projects.

• A number of projects remain on hold,

which could start as the economy

recovers.

• While the level of construction does not

appear too high, the potential, particularly

in large projects is of some concern

should the below average retail sales

eventuate over the next three years.Source: CB Richard Ellis

Future retail supply - Melbourne

Square metres

Rents steady or falling in 2009; stability forecast

for 2010 for all but major centres

-12.0%

-9.0%

-6.0%

-3.0%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

15.0%2002-07 2008 2009

• Rentals fell in most categories during

2009, despite the relative strength of

spending. The larger centres, which

would house the national brands covered

in the fully enumerated survey, managed

to hold rentals steady.

• Most impacted have been the CBD (-10%

following 2008s -5%) and bulky goods

centres.

• Despite the lack of supply expected in

2010 lifting rents will be difficult for all but

the major centres, who are likely to

continue to capture an increasing market

share.

• Similarly the potential supply could be

used against owners of smaller centres

looking to increase rents, particularly

should new supply be in their catchment

area.Source: CB Richard Ellis


Annual growth rate

Net effective rental growth - Melbourne

Yields eased further in 2009 although should

stabilise in 2010

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%10 year average 2009

• Melbourne’s retail yields eased further

in 2009, as expected. Moves

averaged around 60 to 63bps over the

year. The exception was the CBD

which showed little movement.

• With some sector yields now close to

their 10-year averages, yields are

likely to stabilise over 2010. Although

relatively weak rental fundamentals

suggest yields should not firm over the

next year, the favouritism from

investors to retail may prove

differently.

• In particular the yields on sub

regionals, where rents didn’t fall in

2009, average around 7.8%.

Source: Raw data CB Richard Ellis and RBA


Retail yields - Melbourne

Yield



Melbourne Industrial

Increasing demand for industrial space should

occur as economy picks up

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Industrial productionImportsconsumptionexports

• As expected last year the major

drivers for industrial space fell, with

the exception of consumption, which

was boosted by the Government’s

stimulus.

• Not surprisingly expectations are for a

lift in all major economic drivers over

the forecast period, with only

consumption forecast to stabilise in

2010.

• The flow through to requirements for

additional industrial space should lift

through 2010.

Source: Access Economics

Forecast

Consumption, industrial production,

exports and imports - Vic

Change in year (%)

Supply under construction slows however potential

development remains high

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

East Inner North South West

• Industrial construction continued to slow

during 2009 with only 255,000m2 under

construction at year end. This compares with

some 588,600m2 at the end of 2008 and over

1 million meters squared in previous years.

• Almost half of the future supply is in the

Western suburbs, although the inner market is

also prominent with 33%.

• Potential development remains high with

475,000m2 of projects at development

approval. However, development is unlikely to

commence until the over supply from earlier

years has been leased or pre-commitment

has been secured.

• Almost 120,000m2 of projects with

development approval were on hold at the end

of 2009, with a further 40,000m2 where

construction had stopped.

Source: CB Richard Ellis

Future industrial supply under

construction - Melbourne

Square metres

Rents bottomed out in Q3, rises in Q4 2009

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

2008 2009 Q4 2009

• The oversupply in Melbourne started to drive

rents down in 2007. Rents fell by between

10% and 20% from the 2007 peak, although

high tech prime rents fell by 23% to Q3 2009.

• Although supply levels were falling into 2009,

the weakness of demand, particularly in the

first half of the year in 1H 2009 resulted in

continued rental falls. On an annual basis

rents fell most in the distribution centres at

8%. Warehouses rents fell by 6.7% for prime

space and 5% for secondary. High tech

rents stabilised due to a strong Q4.

• However, rents look to have reached bottom

with growth in all sectors in Q4 2009. Prime

high tech rents surged most at 16% for the

quarter.

• With low future supply and the likelihood of

rising demand, rents should continue to lift

through 2010.


Net effective rental growth - Melbourne

Annual growth rate

Land values continue to fall however some stability

evident in Q4 2009

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

2009 Since peak

• The decline in land values, which

commenced in 2008 continued for most

markets into 2009. There were some

exceptions, Tullamarine and Laverton North

plateaued during the year.

• In some markets the rate of decline

accelerated in 2009, although this was early

in the year, with stability evident in Q4.

• Although supply levels are currently low and

demand expected to rise, the space on hold

and projects with development approval

would more than satisfy the need for new

development over 2010. As such land

prices are unlikely to increase over the year.

Once the backlog of projects have been

cleared pressure may commence again on

land. We do not expect further declines in

land values over the year.


Change in land values for 0.25 ha

standard serviced site - Melbourne

Annual growth rate

Well leased prime space may see firming in yields

over 2010

• As rents started falling in 2007, the easing in

Melbourne’s industrial sector has been the

deepest in the country. Yields have increased

by between 220bps for prime distribution

centres to 295bps for secondary warehouses.

Values falls ranged from 29% for prime

warehouse to 35% for prime high tech

properties.

• While yields did ease marginally in 2009, the

bottom of the market appears to have been

reached, with stability or minor firming in Q4.

• The lift in rents suggest that the overhang of

space has eased and with limited new supply,

investor confidence may find yields attractive at

well above 10-year averages and close to 9%

for prime space. It is likely that yields for well

leased prime space will firm during the year, as

investors compete to secure a good income

flow.Source: Raw data CB Richard Ellis and RBA


Industrial yields - Melbourne

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0% Warehouse A grade

Warehouse B grade

10 year avg A

10 Year Avg B

Yield

Disclaimer

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are

predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts

are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks

and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts. Information current as at

February 2010. This information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or

needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard

to your objectives, financial situation or needs. The information may contain material provided directly by third

parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac Banking Corporation (ABN 33 007 457

141) ("Westpac") accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where

contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to

change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy

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CB Richard Ellis Ltd (CBRE) does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information in this publication,

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