outlook for hpc, ai, and the cloud · 2018-12-04 · hpc revenue shares, server + storage dell e m...
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![Page 1: Outlook for HPC, AI, and the Cloud · 2018-12-04 · HPC Revenue Shares, Server + Storage Dell E M C 27.4% HPE 26.8% IBM 7.0% Others 38.8% HPC Servers and Storage Combined Revenue,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050418/5f8ddd15b845511b36547da2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Outlook for HPC, AI, and the CloudJune 2018
Addison Snell
Christopher Willard, Ph.D.
Laura Segervall
![Page 2: Outlook for HPC, AI, and the Cloud · 2018-12-04 · HPC Revenue Shares, Server + Storage Dell E M C 27.4% HPE 26.8% IBM 7.0% Others 38.8% HPC Servers and Storage Combined Revenue,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050418/5f8ddd15b845511b36547da2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Just in! HPC Market for 2017
• Total worldwide HPC market (servers, storage,
software, etc.) reached $35.4 billion in 2017, up
1.6% from 2016.
• Demand-side indicators were up; supply-side
indicators were down. What happened?
– Commercial users moved many facilities costs out-of-
budget, masking a large increase in spending on
power and cooling for those that did not.
– Cloud had a breakout year.
– Storage was weak relative to server spending.
– The software and services categories both declined.
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HPC 2017 vs. 2016
2016 2017
$35.4 B$34.8 BOther Other
$1.1B
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HPC Revenue Shares, Server + Storage
Dell EMC27.4%
HPE26.8%
IBM7.0%
Others38.8%
HPC Servers and Storage Combined Revenue, 2017Intersect360 Research, 2018
![Page 5: Outlook for HPC, AI, and the Cloud · 2018-12-04 · HPC Revenue Shares, Server + Storage Dell E M C 27.4% HPE 26.8% IBM 7.0% Others 38.8% HPC Servers and Storage Combined Revenue,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050418/5f8ddd15b845511b36547da2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
HPC Cloud 2017 vs. 2016
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2016 2017
Other
Infrastructurehosting(IaaS,PaaS)
Applicationhosting(SaaS)
Storage
Rawcycles
($000)All cloud categories grew
Raw cycles grew only
along with overall
market for compute
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Fundamental Drivers
• Drivers for HPC:
– There is always more science to do
– There are always harder problems to solve
– Most HPC usage is commercial
– Plus: AI!
• Drivers for HPC in Cloud:
– Suitable to variable workloads
– Availability of high-performance components
– Maturation of licensing models
– Plus: AI!
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Academic/Not-for-profit:
Nationalsecurity
Nationalresearchlab
Nationalagency
Stateorlocalgovernment
FinancialServicesLargeproductmanufacturing
Bio-sciences
Energy
Consumerproductmanufacturing
Retail
Chemical
Electronics
Media&Entertainment Transportation Othercommercial
HPC 2017 Revenue by Vertical
Academic,
17.7%
Government,
25.7%
Commercial,
56.6%
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Academic/Not-for-profit:
Nationalsecurity
Nationalresearchlab
Nationalagency
Stateorlocalgovernment
FinancialServicesLargeproductmanufacturing
Bio-sciences
Energy
Consumerproductmanufacturing
Retail
Chemical
Electronics
Media&Entertainment Transportation Othercommercial
HPC 2017 Revenue by Vertical
Academic,
17.7%
Government,
25.7%
Commercial,
56.6%
![Page 9: Outlook for HPC, AI, and the Cloud · 2018-12-04 · HPC Revenue Shares, Server + Storage Dell E M C 27.4% HPE 26.8% IBM 7.0% Others 38.8% HPC Servers and Storage Combined Revenue,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022050418/5f8ddd15b845511b36547da2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
AI / Deep Learning
• In 2016, Intersect360 Research placed AI in the
hyperscale market
– Similar to but distinct from HPC
– Low precision, intensely parallel, strong affinity to
public cloud
• DL is not a vertical market. It is an algorithmic or
computational approach
• We are monitoring spending patterns
– Are budgets increasing?
– What is the effect on configurations?
– On premise versus cloud
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Sizing Deep Learning
• The great majority of dedicated spending is by
hyperscale companies, not HPC
• About half of HPC organizations are running
deep learning applications
– Usually with same hardware as HPC, perhaps with
consideration to configuration
– Little effect on HPC budgets compared to what was
already planned
– To the extent that it is done as part of an HPC
environment, it is already counted in our numbers
(For further reading, see “Big Data,” 2013)
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The Big Challenge
• High-performance workloads are diversifying
– Traditional HPC
– Big Data / Analytics
– AI / Machine Learning / Deep Learning
• More options in architectures
– Processor options (x86, GPU, FPGA, ARM, …)
– Storage tiers (NVM, burst buffer, disk, archive …)
– Networking diversity (Ethernet, IB, OPA, …)
• What to buy, with limited resources?
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Future Outlook
• Cloud continues fast growth in HPC
– Especially this year and next
– ~$2B in 2019, ~$3B in 2022
• Almost all HPC Cloud usage will be hybrid
• AI remains a critical workload, becomes part of
HPC (and other areas), not replacing
• Users need vehicles for reducing cost and risk in
matching technologies to new workloads (cloud,
managed services, …)
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Outlook for HPC, AI, and the CloudJune 2018
Addison Snell
Christopher Willard, Ph.D.
Laura Segervall