Thank You

Outlook for India’s Refining Landscape

Antony Francis

Reliance Industries Ltd

Singapore 9th March 2017

2

Disclaimer

Any statement, opinion, prediction, comment, or observation made in this

presentation/publication are those of the presenter/author only and in no condition

should be construed necessarily representing the policy and intent of Reliance

Industries Ltd. (RIL).

The information presented herein are of the presenter/author’s own and in no way RIL

attracts any liability for any inconsistency or irregularity in terms of the accuracy

completeness, veracity, or truth of the content of the presentation/publication. In

addition, RIL shall not be liable for any copyright infringement and misrepresentation for

the presented content as the content is presumed in good faith to be a creation of

presenter’s/author’s own mind.

The scope of this presentation/publication is strictly for knowledge sharing purposes and

not necessarily to provide any advice or recommendation to the audience/readers. Any

endorsement, recommendation, suggestion, or advice made by the presenter/author

shall be in his personal capacity and not in professional capacity as an employee of RIL.

Any person acting on such endorsement, recommendation, suggestion, or advice will

himself/herself be responsible for any injury/damage.

© Reliance Industries Ltd.

3 Higher volumes + superior quality- India’s refining outlook

Refining Outlook

● Growth

‒ High demand growth, driven by India’s GDP + population growth

‒ Divert products from export to domestic markets – short term

‒ Expand + upgrade + modernize existing refineries – short term

‒ Add new, complex + integrated refineries – long term

● Quality

‒ Upgrade gasoline + diesel to Euro 6, by skipping Euro 5

‒ Upgrade fuel oil to 0.5% S, as per IMO/MARPOL

● Integration

‒ Refinery + petrochemicals

‒ Oil + gas co-feeds

‒ Conventional + renewable co-products

● Automation

‒ Internet of Things (IoT)

‒ Advanced automation

‒ Artificial Intelligence (AI)

4

India’s refining: History

India’s refining transformation: Imports to exports

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

mmt/yr

Gasoline Diesel

• Reliance Jamnagar 1 = Usher in fuel self sufficiency in India

• Reliance Jamnagar 2 = Transform India into an export hub for refinery products

Source: PPAC

5

Growth: Refining capacity

Squeeze max product from a crude barrel to satisfy demand growth

• CAGR = 4%, for next 6 years

• No new refineries planned, after IndianOil Paradip, up to 2021

• Major debottlenecking + expansion of existing refineries for supply growth

• Continuous refining capacity increase by creep

Source: IHS

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

mmt/yr

6

Growth: Gasoline + diesel

GDP + population growth drive refinery fuel demand in India

• Gasoline CAGR = 6.1%, from 8.3%, up to 2025

• Diesel CAGR = 2.5%, from 4.6%, up to 2025

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

mmt/yr

Gasoline DieselSource: IHS

7 Leap-frog fuel quality in India

Quality: Gasoline + diesel

Diesel Euro 6

Density, kg/m3 Max 845

Sulphur, wt ppm Max 10

T95, 0C Max 360

Cetane number Min 51

Gasoline Euro 6

Sulphur, wt ppm Max 10

FBP, 0C Max 210

RON Min 95

Aromatics, vol% Max 35

Olefins, vol% Max 18

Benzene, vol% Max 1

• Reduce S from existing 50 – 350 ppm to 10 ppm or Euro 6

• Improve air quality, with clean fuels

• Skip Euro 5 or 50ppm S to harmonize with global standards.

• Target a common,10 ppm ultra-low S fuel quality, throughout India.

• With 2020, only 3 years available for quality changeover

• Require major refinery revamps for quality upgrade

8 Revolutionize bottom-of-the barrel processing

Quality: Marine bunker

■ Fuel Oil (FO) for marine bunker

• New IMO/MARPOL regulations for FO in 2020

• Reduce FO from existing 3.5% to 0.5% S by 2020

• Require either on – board scrubbers or FO quality upgrade

• FO quality upgrade shall transform future refining

■ Processing impact

• FO outlet blocked for blending high S refinery streams

• Process heavies or perish

– Blend kero / diesel into FO

– Hydro-treat FO to 0.5%S

– Hydrocrack VGO, with unconverted to FO

– Hydrocrack resid to distillates, with unconverted to FO

■ Refinery impact

• Transform FO from –ve to +ve crack margin

• Boost jet / diesel margins driven by FO blending

• Implement bottom-of-the-barrel upgrading in refineries:

– Resid hydrocracking = Ebullating or slurry

– Need low cost H2 or gas integration for hydrocracking

– Unconverted hydrocracker bottoms = Future 0.5% S FO blend-stock

9 Refining must drive India’s petrochemicals growth

Integration: Petrochemicals

• Demand

– Petrochemicals >> fuel demand growth in India

– Major imports of chemicals ~ 30% and growing

– Transform India’s refining into petrochemical supply hubs

• Integration

– Heavy naphtha to aromatics, via CCR reforming

– Lt naphtha / hydrocracker btms to olefins, via steam cracking

– VGO to olefins, via max - conversion FCC

– Refinery off-gas to olefins, via steam cracking

– Syngas to chemicals, via C1 chemistry

– C3 + C4 to propylene + butadiene, via de-hydrogenation

– Deepen petrochemicals integration with refinery

10 Integrate oil + gas as co-feeds in refining

Integration: Gas

■ LNG imports

• Co-gen fuel for power + steam

• Feed to H2 for clean fuels

• Fuel additives via methanol

■ Syngas alternative

• Gasify pet-coke + resid to syngas

• Substitute LNG with syngas

• Syngas as a fountainhead for chemicals:

– Acetic acid + acetyl derivatives

– Methanol + methanol derivatives

– Oxo alcohols + ester derivatives

– MDI + isocyanate derivatives

– MEG + polyester derivatives

– MMA

11 Integrate renewable fuels in refining

Integration: Renewable

• COP 21

– Reaffirm India’s commitment to COP 21 – Paris accord

– Reduce C intensity by 33%

– Generate 40% electricity from renewable resources

• Renewables in refining

– Integrate renewable fuels in refining

– Target agricultural waste as biomass feed

– Convert biomass to pyro fuel for internal fuel

– Upgrade biomass to 2G ethanol, for gasoline blending

– Future fuels = Conventional plus renewables

– Stretch crude to fuels with renewables

12 Data is the new oil for 21st century refining

Automation

• Internet of Things (IoT)

– Embed instrument + control systems, with self communication capability

– Upload big data from refineries to the cloud

– Analyze big data for intelligent refining

• Advanced automation

– Measure + monitor + evaluate, 24 x 7, with cloud - connected sensors

– Global view, from integrated + streaming data, via cloud computing

– Pattern recognition + machine learning, via refinery big data analysis

– Enhanced mobility + support for refinery field operators

– Advanced 3D visualization for troubleshooting

• Artificial intelligence(AI)

– Abnormal event detection to prevent loss time incident

– Augmented reality to support refinery maintenance + inspection

– Preserve refinery knowledge base, via AI driven search engines

13 Innovate for sustainable refining

Conclusion

• Transform refineries

– Max fuels from crude barrel

– Clean fuels for ecology

– Bottom-of-the-barrel processing for marine transport

• Integrate refineries

– Fountainhead for petrochemicals, with deep integration

– Co-process oil + gas for hydrocarbon optimization

– Augment fuel volumes, with renewables

• Automate refineries

– Implement IoT, + advanced automation + AI in refining

– Ultimate in safety + flexibility + reliability for refining

– Transform processing into smart + intelligent refining

Thank You Thank You