Dilip Ratha and Hans Timmer

April 19, 2013Development Prospects GroupWorld BankWashington, D.C.

Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-15

Outline

Outlook for migration and remittance flows: 2013-15

KNOMAD

Key messages on outlook

Remittance continue to grow; developing received $401 bn in 2012 ; expect $513 bn by 2015.

Remittance prices are not falling anymore, particularly in low volume corridors where remittance is more important.

Migration needs to feature in Post-MDGs

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011e

2013f2015f

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700 $ billions

Remittances to developing countries to reach $401 bn in 2012

Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank

IndiaChina

Philippines

Mexico

NigeriaEgyp

t

Banglad

esh

Pakist

an

Vietnam

Leban

on

6960

24 23 21 2114 14 10 7

Top remittance recipients in 2012

$ million, 2012e as % of GDP, 2011

Tajikis

tan

Liberia

Kyrgyz

Rep

ublic

Lesotho

MoldovaNep

al

Samoa

Haiti

Leban

on

Kosovo

47

31 29 2723 22 21 21

18 18

Remittance flows to developing countries

$ billion 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f

Developing countries 341 380 401 427 468 515 East Asia and Pacific 95 106 109 117 130 145 Europe and Central Asia 37 41 40 43 47 52 Latin America and Caribbean 58 62 62 67 73 81 Middle-East and North Africa 41 43 49 52 55 58 South Asia 83 97 109 117 127 140 Sub-Saharan Africa 29 30 31 33 36 39

Growth rate Developing countries 8.0% 11.5% 5.3% 6.7% 9.5% 10.2%

East Asia and Pacific 10.9% 12.3% 2.5% 7.1% 11.2% 11.7% Europe and Central Asia -0.1% 13.5% -3.9% 6.9% 10.5% 11.4%

Latin America and Caribbean 0.9% 7.3% 0.9% 7.1% 10.0% 10.5% Middle-East and North Africa 20.9% 6.1% 14.3% 5.1% 5.7% 6.3%

South Asia 9.8% 17.6% 12.3% 6.9% 9.1% 10.0% Sub-Saharan Africa 4.0% 4.9% 1.6% 5.6% 8.6% 8.8%

Remittance growth moderates in 2012 in all regions, except MENA

2009

2010

2011

e20

12f

2013

f20

14f

2015

f-20%

0%

20%

40%East Asia and PacificEurope and Central AsiaLatin America and CaribbeanMiddle-East and North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Percent

Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank

Russia: Oil prices continue to provide a cushion for remittances outflows from Russia

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

2007

Q3

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

2009

Q1

2009

Q3

2010

Q1

2010

Q3

2011

Q1

2011

Q3

2012

Q1

2012

Q3

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$ billions

Remittance outflows from Russia (left scale)

Crude oil price(right scale)

$/barrel

Source: IMF Balance of Payments and Development Prospects Group, World Bank.

In the US, employment is recovering faster for migrant workers than for natives*

Source: Current Population Survey

*3-month moving averages

Jul-08Nov-08

Mar-09Jul-09

Nov-09Mar-10

Jul-10Nov-10

Mar-11Jul-11

Nov-11Mar-12

Jul-12Nov-12

Mar-13

116

118

120

122

124

21

22

23

24

millionsmillions

Natives (left scale)

Migrants (right scale)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

183 183

131

55

2 6

264300

235

70

5

Source: US Citizenship and Immigration Services.

Demand for skilled migrant workers is picking up in the US

Number of Days to reach H1-B visa cap

Migration is important for post 2015 development agenda

Migration affects development; and development affects migration.

Migrants, like those in the informal sector, should be included in MDG discussions

How might migration be featured in the Post-2015 Agenda?

• Reduce cost of migrating

• Protect the rights and safety of migrants

• Leverage migration for financing development

Remittance price is falling, but not as much in low volume corridors where remittance is more important

2008 Q3 2009Q3 2010

Q3 2011Q3 2012

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%Global Average

Global Weighted average

Cost of sending $200

Source: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide database

24

5 5 5 69

1214

16Cost of sending $200 (%)

Proposed US immigration reforms can impact remittance flows to developing countries Proposals:

― Path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants

― Employment verifications and increased border security

― Improving the process to admit future workers, including unskilled ones.

Increases remittance flows in the long run by improving migrants employment opportunity and access to finance.

Global Knowledge Partnership on

Migration and Development(KNOMAD)

Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD)

An open, inclusive, multidisciplinary knowledge partnership

To generate a menu of policy choices, based on analytical evidence and quality control through peer-review

A global public good that is also a learning process

Key Objectives of KNOMAD

generating and synthesizing knowledge on migration issues

generating a menu of policy choices based on multidisciplinary knowledge and evidence

providing technical assistance and capacity building to sending and receiving countries

StructureTwelve thematic working groups and four cross-

cutting themesSupported by a small secretariatGuided by an Advisory Committee Contractual as well as voluntary contributionsMulti-donor trust fund at the World Bank

Thematic Working Groups

Data

High-skilled labor

migration

Lower-skilled labor migration

Integration issues in host communities

Policy and institution

al coherence

Migrant rights and

social aspects

Demography and

migration

Remittances

Mobilizing other

diaspora resources

Environmental change and migration

Internal migration

Migration and

security

Cross-cutting themesMonitoring and Impact EvaluationCapacity BuildingGenderPublic perception and communication

Partnerships International and regional agenciesUniversities and research institutionsThink tanksInternational InitiativesNetworksCivil Society

Outputs

A menu of policy choicesAnalytical research productsPolicy briefsOperational toolkits, fact booksWeb-based anthologies, archives, blogsA few pilot projects and capacity building activities

Timeline: Implementation begins today

Has been in inception phase (ends in April 2013)Implementation phase (May 2013-Dec 2017)Evaluation – 2016Pilot projects – 2016-17Exit strategy

Year 1: Some Activities

Stocktaking of data and literature to identify gapsOrganizing workshops and meetingsIdentifying experts and peer reviewersDeveloping a website and portal that is easy to use

and accessible

Thank you

www.knomad.org