outlook for the texas economy · north texas recorded unemployment rates of 13.0 and 13.5 percent...

LUIS B. TORRESRESEARCH ECONOMIST

WESLEY MILLERRESEARCH ASSOCIATE

T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T

2 0 4 6

Outlook for theTexas Economy

PAIGE SILVARESEARCH ASSOCIATE

APRIL 2020 DATA

GRIFFIN CARTERRESEARCH INTERN

1

About this Report .................................................................................................................................. 3

April 2020 Summary.............................................................................................................................. 4

Economic Activity ................................................................................................................................ 11

Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index ............................................................................. 11

Major Metros Business Cycle Index .............................................................................................. 11

Consumer Confidence Index ......................................................................................................... 12

Financial Activity ................................................................................................................................. 13

30-Year Mortgage Rate and Ten-Year Bond Yield ........................................................................ 13

Texas Mortgage Applications ........................................................................................................ 13

Housing ................................................................................................................................................ 14

Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................ 14

Texas Residential Construction Indicator ..................................................................................... 14

Energy .................................................................................................................................................. 15

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices .................................................................................................. 15

Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count ............................................................................... 15

Employment ........................................................................................................................................ 16

Employment Growth Rate ............................................................................................................ 16

Unemployment Rate ..................................................................................................................... 16

Major Metros Unemployment Rate.............................................................................................. 17

Continued Unemployment Insurance Claims ............................................................................... 17

Labor Force Participation Rate ...................................................................................................... 18

Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ....................................................................................... 18

Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ............................................................... 19

Major Metros Employment Growth Rate ..................................................................................... 19

Manufacturing ..................................................................................................................................... 20

Manufacturing Employment ......................................................................................................... 20

Major Metros Manufacturing Employment.................................................................................. 20

Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ................................................................................... 21

Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ............................................................ 21

Manufacturing Outlook Survey ..................................................................................................... 22

Construction ........................................................................................................................................ 23

Construction Employment ............................................................................................................ 23

Construction Employee Hourly Earnings ...................................................................................... 23

Texas Construction Values ............................................................................................................ 24

Major Metros Total Construction Values ...................................................................................... 24

2

Services ................................................................................................................................................ 25

Services Sector Outlook Survey .................................................................................................... 25

Texas Retail Sector ........................................................................................................................ 25

CPI Inflation Rates ......................................................................................................................... 26

CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components) .................................................................................. 26

Trade .................................................................................................................................................... 27

Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar .................................................................................... 27

Exports (All Commodities)............................................................................................................. 27

Manufacturing Exports.................................................................................................................. 28

Crude Oil Exports........................................................................................................................... 28

Texas Exports by Country .............................................................................................................. 29

3

Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas

economies. Outlook for the Texas Economy summarizes significant state economic activity and

trends. All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes

are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

This publication is designed to be a one-stop resource for economic indicators. We hope you find

them as useful as we do. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to

[email protected].

Dr. Luis Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter

Data current as of June 12, 2020

© 2020, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

4

Summary1

Economic activity was hit hard in April during a

statewide stay-at-home mandate implemented to

mitigate the spread of the coronavirus.

Employment registered its steepest decline in

series history, while joblessness skyrocketed to

12.8 percent. Jobs at food/drinking places fell by

421,200 alone. Continued unemployment

insurance claims and weekly initial claims,

however, suggest overall hiring resumed in May.

Business activity worsened, but survey data

revealed three-fourths of the pandemic-related

layoffs are believed to be temporary. As oil

demand and prices sank to critically low levels,

export values plummeted by more than 25 percent.

Retail sales decreased less than expected, but

housing sales declined 17.6 percent during

heightened economic uncertainty. The Real Estate Center’s Texas weekly leading economic activity

index indicated modest labor market improvements in May.

Labor market woes due to coronavirus-related uncertainty halted economic activity as the Dallas

Fed’s Texas Business-Cycle Index plunged 41 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate

(SAAR). The Austin and San Antonio indices plummeted more than 47 percent SAAR, while Fort

Worth’s metric fell 46.4 percent. Dallas and Houston fared slightly better than the statewide

average, but their indexes still decreased 34.9 and 37.0 percent, respectively.

The Texas Leading Economic Index (a measure of future directional changes in the business cycle)

slid to its lowest level since the Great Recession as new unemployment claims, national data, and

the real oil price dragged on the index. The Texas Consumer Confidence Index dropped 33 points

to its lowest reading since 2013.

Decreased confidence spilled into the bond market, pulling interest rates down in April. Both the

ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.

CURRENT END DATES TO COVID-19 ASSISTANCE

• July 31, 2020. Federal PandemicUnemployment Compensation (FPUC). Adds an additional $600 per week for unemployment insurance claimants.

• December 31, 2020. PandemicUnemployment Assistance (PUA). Extends length of unemployment benefits by 13 weeks and provides benefits to workers who are not traditionally eligible.

• December 31, 2020. PaycheckProtection Plan (PPP). A loan designed to provide direct incentive for small businesses to keep their workers on the payroll.

5

fixed-rate dropped to their lowest readings on record at 0.7 and 3.3 percent, respectively. Despite

the former reaching a series low, mortgage applications for home purchases decreased for the

third straight month to plummet 28.5 percent YTD amid coronavirus-related disruptions to the

housing market and stricter lending standards. Applications to refinance home loans fell 13.2

percent in April but maintained positive YTD growth after doubling since year end in the first

quarter. However, application volumes are expected to recover in the coming months, assuming

housing demand remains stable.

Total Texas housing sales declined 17.6 percent amid economic uncertainty surrounding the

COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, contemporaneous and anticipated construction activity

continued to fall. The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures

current construction levels, sank to its lowest reading since 2017 as industry employment

plummeted. Decreased building permits and housing starts offset falling interest rates, pulling the

Residential Construction Leading Index down to levels around those last seen in January 2007. (For

additional housing commentary and statistics, see Texas Housing Insight at recenter.tamu.edu.)

The West Texas intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price nearly halved during April to $16 per

barrel, averaging a few dollars above the series’ all-time low recorded in 1998. The plummet was

largely due to storage capacity concerns despite an OPEC agreement to cut production by 9.7

million barrels per day, corresponding to about 10 percent of the global supply. An extended period

of time with prices this low will financially strain many Texas oil and gas companies, as the

commonly considered break-even price is about $50 per barrel. Texas’ active rig count fell to 282

after crude oil production inched up to 5.4 million barrels per day in March2. Output will likely be

suppressed in the second quarter as global demand expectations remain subdued. On the natural

gas front, the Henry Hub spot price ticked down to $1.82 per million British Thermal Units (BTU) as

demand softened due to warmer-than-average weather in April, but decreased production kept

prices from falling further. Anticipated second-quarter declines in natural gas production in the

Appalachian and Permian regions, however, should sustain prices for the rest of the year.

Texas’ nonfarm employment contracted by a record 1.3 million jobs in April as many businesses

laid off employees during the statewide stay-at-home mandate. The Dallas Fed projects

employment will decline 11.7 percent annually, ending 2020 with 11.4 million workers. Currently,

there are 11.6 million Texans employed. Widespread job losses pushed the unemployment rate to

a series high of 12.8 percent. Austin was the only major metro with joblessness less than the

statewide average, posting 12.6 percent. North Texas recorded unemployment rates of 13.0 and

13.5 percent in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively, while San Antonio’s metric was slightly higher

at 13.6 percent. With a greater proportion of energy-related jobs than the other major

Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), Houston joblessness reached 14.6 percent. Continued

unemployment insurance claims skyrocketed to an all-time high of 957,500 in April but hovered

below the 1.4 million terminated jobs since February, suggesting some Texans are being rehired

since first claiming unemployment insurance. On the other hand, the state’s labor force

2 The release of crude oil production typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month.

https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/2120.pdf

6

participation sank to its lowest level in series history (starting in 1976) at 58.3 percent. Lower labor

force participation may impact the unemployment rate; people who are not in the labor force

cannot be counted as unemployed. Currently, job search requirements to receive unemployment

benefits have been relaxed due to the extenuating circumstances during the pandemic, allowing

Texans to exit the labor force but still receive unemployment benefits. The table summarizes

changes in the labor force across Texas’ major MSAs. All but Austin’s labor force decreased by less

than the statewide average in terms of percentage change.

Texas’ real private hourly earnings rose 4.9 percent year over year (YOY). Compositional changes in

the state’s workforce may explain some of the increase, as many of the layoffs were comprised of

lower-paying jobs, which would push the average wage up. Austin, the highest-paying metro with

average nominal wages of $30.63 per hour, recorded a 4.7 percent rise in real earnings. North

Texas posted inflation-adjusted wage growth above the statewide average, climbing 5.9 percent in

Dallas ($30.58) and 9.8 percent in Fort Worth ($27.73). Houston ($28.42) and San Antonio ($25.11)

earnings, however, increased just 2.1 and 2.7 percent, respectively, after accounting for inflation.

Employment in each of Texas’ major metros registered about a double-digit percent decrease with

nearly every subsector contracting. Although leisure/hospitality suffered the most layoffs in every

region, Central Texas leisure/hospitality employment fared the worst, with the sector contributing

half of the total 123,900 and 107,900 job losses in Austin and San Antonio, respectively.

Education/health services was second in the number of positions shed in every major locale except

for Dallas, contracting by 20,800 in Austin and 15,000 in San Antonio. Fort Worth’s

education/health services contracted by 19,000 jobs, and leisure/hospitality by 51,000. The

western metropolitan division posted the largest YTD percentage decrease in total employment in

the Urban Triangle, falling 11.5 percent after losing 119,500 positions. Houston employment fell by

317,400 with leisure/hospitality constituting a third of the losses. Following an 800-job downward

revision to the March mining/logging increase, the sector recorded its largest decline on record,

contracting by 8,300 in April as oil prices plummeted to critically low levels. Only 67,100

Houstonians were employed in the industry, the least amount since 2004. However, even if oil

prices remain below $40 per barrel, the rate of decline should slow since there was only a partial

recovery from the 2015-16 oil bust and recent job losses have depleted the oil industry’s labor

force. In Dallas, leisure/hospitality shed nearly 100,000 positions while professional/business

services laid off an additional 49,000 employees.

7

Texas’ goods-producing employment decreased by 131,100 jobs, or 6.8 percent. Mining/logging cut

24,300 positions, falling by more than 10 percent. Manufacturing declined by only 4.9 percent after

laying off 26,800 and 17,500 durable-and-nondurable goods manufacturing employees,

respectively. The loss of so many nondurable goods factory jobs, which tend to pay less than their

counterpart, may have contributed to average hourly manufacturing earnings increasing from the

previous month and soaring 6.6 percent YOY in real terms. In North Texas, Dallas and Fort Worth

wages increased 5.2 and 4.3 percent, respectively, after adjusting for inflation. On the other hand,

Houston and San Antonio industry earnings extended year-long slides. The Dallas Fed’s

Manufacturing Outlook Survey corroborated worsening employment trends as the hours worked

index registered a steeper decline, and the job metric remained negative. Contrary to the data,

more survey participants reported wages decreased rather than increased; the disparity may be

due to the fact that respondents communicate movements in overall earnings, not the average.

The production, capacity utilization, and new orders indexes indicated even gloomier conditions

than in March. Outlook uncertainty eased slightly as most stay-at-home orders expired but

remained at elevated levels.

The construction sector shed 62,500 positions for a 7.9 percent decline. After falling for ten

consecutive months, the average hourly wage flattened YOY after accounting for inflation. Total

construction values dropped 13 percent in April with most of the drawback in the residential

sector. Single-family construction decreased in all four major metros, offsetting minor increases in

Houston and DFW apartment activity. Nevertheless, multifamily values, trended downward in the

Texas Urban Triangle except for in San Antonio. On the nonresidential side, San Antonio’s

warehouse and office/bank building sectors posted increased activity, but DFW pulled overall

values down with decreases in stores/restaurants and hotels/motels construction. School building

activity in the Metroplex, however, continued to climb.

Service-providing jobs plummeted by 1.2 million, a tenth of the industry’s employees. Losses were

widespread, but food services/drinking places were hit hardest, shedding 421,200 positions alone.

Administrative/support services employment was reduced by 99,600 while ambulatory health care

services contracted by 87,200. Although additional layoffs are not out of the question until the

economy is completely reopened and a vaccine is available, April is expected to contain the worst

of the job cuts. Nearly 40 percent of the Dallas Fed’s Service Sector Outlook Survey respondents

reported decreased full-time and part-time employment, while more than half noted a decline in

hours worked. As selling prices and revenue continued to drop, cutting into profits, the general

business activity index fell to a record low. Perceptions of future conditions improved slightly but

remained in negative territory.

Texas retail jobs dropped by 117,800 with nearly half of the losses in the clothing/clothing

accessories industry. Only grocery stores registered an increase in employment, adding 5,900 new

hires. During the statewide stay-at-home order, inflation-adjusted retail sales sank 1.9 percent YOY

and contracted for the third consecutive month. The Dallas Fed’s Retail Outlook Survey

corroborated the weakening labor market conditions with the employment, hours worked, and

wages/benefits indices decreasing. Outlook uncertainty remained heightened, but similar to the

service-sector survey, survey participants expect less dismal future activity.

8

Participants of all three of the Dallas Fed’s Business Outlook Surveys were asked special questions

regarding COVID-19 impacts during April; the results of these questions were combined. According

to the survey, production/revenue/sales and demand for products/services were the most

negatively affected by the pandemic, with about four-fifths of the respondents reporting a decline.

Nearly half of the participants noted a decrease in employment, but three-quarters of those

reporting a negative effect believe the impact to be temporary. More than half of the survey

respondents expect demand for their firm’s products/services to return to typical levels within six

months once shelter-in-place and social distancing mandates are lifted. Only 15 percent estimate it

might take longer than a year.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) flattened relative to a year ago as the low oil-price

environment reduced transportation costs 9.4 percent annually. Core inflation fared better,

increasing 1.4 percent YOY but still recorded its smallest increase in nine years. Houston’s CPI fell

1.3 percent with plummeting local transportation prices the main reason for the overall decrease.

After a double-digit percent hike in the Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar the previous

month3, Texas’ real commodity exports fell 26.5 percent. Manufacturing exports declined 21.7

percent in real terms, sinking to a ten-year low as petroleum/coal products and transportation

equipment shipments dropped. Meanwhile, April crude oil exports plunged to half the value of the

prior month.

Exports to Mexico and Canada each decreased by more than a third, pulling their combined share

of exports received to an all-time low of less than 36 percent. Much of the decline was comprised

of energy-related and transportation equipment exports to both countries. The United States-

Mexico-Canada Agreement, effective July 1, 2020, should reaffirm trade relationships between the

involved nations, but commitments may be difficult to fulfill because of coronavirus disruptions. On

the other hand, outgoing shipments to China rose 10 percent in April led by chemicals and

machinery. Additionally, purchases of Texas agricultural products increased for the third straight

month. The global COVID-19 pandemic, however, may make meeting purchases targets more

difficult than expected when the phase-one U.S.-China trade deal was negotiated.

With critically low oil prices and a month-long, statewide stay-at-home mandate in place, April is

likely to contain the worst of the economic decline in percentage terms, barring another lockdown

period. A glimpse of possible employment outcomes can be seen when analyzing weekly initial

unemployment insurance claims, which are more timely than monthly data. Graph 1 shows that

beginning in May and continuing through the first week of June, Texas’ seasonally adjusted initial

unemployment claims dropped each week, although levels still remained abnormally high.

Metropolitan data (Graph 2) lag a week behind the statewide release but also showed initial claims

decelerating. Taking into consideration weekly initial claims and continued claims, the Real Estate

Center estimates the Lone Star State’s unemployment rate could fall 0.4 percentage points to

around 12.4 percent in May, while the labor force could potentially gain 647,000 Texans.

3 The release of the Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar data typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month.

9

The Center created a Texas weekly leading economic activity index to predict turning points in

Texas employment. (For more information, see COVID-19 Impact Projections on Texas Economy at

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/special-report/COVID-19-Impact-Projections.) The index

plateaued during the last week of May after registering a strong improvement during the previous

three weeks, signaling only modest economic improvements going forward (Graph 3). Based on

both the Texas weekly leading index and national employment, which increased 1.9 percent

relative to April, Texas nonfarm employment could increase 1.5 percent in May. If so, the Texas

economy could recover around 174,000 of the 1.39 million jobs lost in March and April.

Nonetheless, many analysts expect employment will make only a partial recovery until the spread

of COVID-19 is contained, and the economy is able to reopen completely.

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, and Real Estate

Center at Texas A&M University calculations

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

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250,000

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350,000

Mar 212020

Mar 282020

Apr 42020

Apr 112020

Apr 182020

Apr 252020

May 22020

May 92020

May 162020

May 232020

May 302020

June 62020

Graph 1. Texas Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/special-report/COVID-19-Impact-Projections

10

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, and Real

Estate Center at Texas A&M University calculations

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

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90,000

Mar 212020

Mar 282020

Apr 42020

Apr 112020

Apr 182020

Apr 252020

May 22020

May 92020

May 162020

May 232020

May 302020

Austin Dallas-Fort Worth

Houston San Antonio

0

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160

1/7

/200

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10/7

/200

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4/7

/202

0

Seasonally Adjusted Index Trend-Cycle Component

Graph 2. Major Metro Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

Graph 3. Texas Weekly Leading Index (Index 1/7/2006 = 100)

11

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Business Cycle Index

Leading Index (Right Axis)

-55.0

-45.0

-35.0

-25.0

-15.0

-5.0

5.0

15.0

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Business Cycle Index (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)

Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/2046-3.pdf

https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/2046.pdf

12

Note: Trend-cycle Component. Source: Conference Board

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

Consumer Confidence Index (Index Jan 2011 = 100)

13

Note: Nonseasonally adjusted. Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Mortgage Bond

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Refinance Purchase

30-Year Mortgage Rate and Ten-Year Bond Yield (Percent)

Texas Mortgage Applications

(Year-over-Year Percentage Change)

14

Note: Trend-cycle component. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. For more information, see Housing Sales. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Trend-cycle component. Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

United States Texas

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

TX Coincident Index US Coincident Index TX Leading Index

Texas Residential Construction Index (Index Jan 2000 = 100)

Housing Sales (Index Jan 2000 = 100)


15

Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration received from Thomson Reuters

Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count. Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

25

50

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100

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150

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Crude Oil

Natural Gas(Right Axis)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

200

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600

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1,000

1,200

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Production of Crude Oil (Right Axis)

Number of Operating Rigs

Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count (Count) (Number of rigs) (Millions of barrels per day)

$/Barrel Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices

($) $/million BTU



16

Note: Seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average. April 2020 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: Seasonally adjusted. April 2020 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)



17

Note: Seasonally adjusted. April 2020 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Source: Department of Labor/Haver Analytics

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving



San Antonio

0

125

250

375

500

625

750

875

1,000

1,125

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

Major Metros Unemployment Rate (Percent)

Continued Unemployment Insurance Claims (Thousands)

(United States) (Texas)


18

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Notes: Inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted. April 2020 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

United States

Texas

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percent)

Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)



19



-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving




Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Major Metros Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)



20



-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving



San Antonio

Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)

Major Metros Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)



21



-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

-25.0

-15.0

-5.0

5.0

15.0

25.0

35.0

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Dallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston–The Woodlands–Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)





22

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Manufacturing Outlook Survey. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas index. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Index)


23

Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2020 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

United States Texas

Construction Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)

Construction Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)




24

Note: Inflation adjusted trend-cycle component. Source: Dodge Analytics

Note: Inflation adjusted trend-cycle component. Source: Dodge Analytics

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Residential

Non-residential

Total Value

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington



Texas Construction Values

(Index Jan 2007 = 100)

Major Metros Total Construction Values

(Index Jan 2007 = 100)

25

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Services Sector Outlook Survey. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas index. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management

Note: Seasonally adjusted and inflation adjusted. For more information, see Texas Retail Sector. Sources: Retail Sector Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Retail Sales from Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Dallas Federal Reserve BankRetail Survey

Retail Sales(Right Axis)

Services Sector Outlook Survey (Index)

Texas Retail Sector (Index; Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Index Year-over-Year Percent Change



26

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see CPI Inflation Rates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: The Houston CPI is composed of the following major groups: Food and Beverages, Housing, Apparel, Transportation, Medical Care, Recreation, Education and Communication, and Other Goods and Services. The four major components are included in the graph above. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States


U.S. Core Inflation

-13.0

-10.0

-7.0

-4.0

-1.0

2.0

5.0

8.0

11.0

14.0

17.0

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Food and Beverages Housing

Transportation Medical

CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components) (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

CPI Inflation Rates (Year-over-Year Percent Change)


27

Note: For more information, see Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

80

90

100

110

120

130

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

Exports (All Commodities) (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar (Index Jan 2007 = 100)



28

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Manufacturing Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Crude Oil Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

United States

Texas

Manufacturing Exports (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Crude Oil Exports (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)



29

Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

46

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Brazil Canada China

Netherlands South Korea Mexico (Right axis)

Texas Exports by Country (Percent)


i

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MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL

Texas A&M University 2115 TAMU

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GARY W. MALER

TROY ALLEY, JR. DeSoto

RUSSELL CAIN Port Lavaca

DOUG JENNINGS Fort Worth

BESA MARTIN Boerne

ALVIN COLLINS, CHAIRMAN Andrews

JJ CLEMENCE, VICE CHAIRMAN Sugar Land

TED NELSON HoustonDOUG ROBERTS AustinC. CLARK WELDER FredericksburgJAN FITE-MILLER, EX-OFFICIO Dallas

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