outlook of china aromatics - platts in petrochemical industry revolution of new coal chemical supply...
TRANSCRIPT
Recent Trend in China Aromatics
1
4
Price Features of BTX
Fundamental of BZ and Arbitrage
Fundamental of TL & MX and Arbitrage
2014 China BTX Spot Price Trend
1,150
1,250
1,350
1,450
1,550
1,650
5,800
6,800
7,800
8,800
9,800
10,800
Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14
East China TL
East China BZ
East China ISO-MX
East China PTA
PX CFR China
China Aromatics Spot Price, 2013-2014 RMB/mt USD/mt
Source:JYD
Import of BZ Declined 14% in H1 2014
BZ(kt) 2011 2012 2013 Jan-June 2014
Output of BZ 6,660 6,510 7,140 3,654
Import of BZ 186 444 887 331
Export of BZ 110 49 31 36
Output of Hydrogenation of BZ 2710 3,160 3,920 2,100
Consumption 9,446 10,065 11,916 6,049
Import Growth Rate -3.13% 138.71% 99.77% -14.03%
Source:JYD
Arbitrage Window of BZ was Closed since 2014
-1,500
-1,200
-900
-600
-300
0
300
7,500
8,500
9,500
10,500
11,500
12,500
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
Spread East China BZ BZ Import Cost
Asia-China BZ Arbitrage, 2013-2014 RMB/mt
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
BZ Monthly Import Monthly Average Price
China BZ Import, 2013-2014 USD/mt mt
Source:JYD Source:JYD
Import of TL Increased by 85% in H1 2014
TL(KT) 2011 2012 2013 Jan-June 2014
Outputs 5,276 5,273 5,624 2,806
Imports 655 660 812 690
Exports 8 7 3 1
Consumption 5,871 5,918 6,334 3,495
Export Change -20.99% 0.70% 23.10% 85.48%
Source:JYD
Asia-China TL Arbitrage was Opened Sometimes since 2014
2012年芳烃产业整体走势
-900
-600
-300
0
300
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
Spread East China TL TL Import Cost
Asia-China TL Arbitrage
RMB/mt
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
TL Monthly Import Monthly Average Price
USD/mt mt China TL Import
Source:JYD Source:JYD
Asia-China ISO-MX Arbitrage was Opened in H1 2014
-1,200
-900
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
1,200
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
Spread East China ISO-MX ISO-MX Import Cost
Asia-China ISO-MX Arbitrage
RMB/mt
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
ISO-MX Monthly Import Monthly Average Price
China ISO-MX Import
Unit: mt
Source:JYD Source:JYD
2 Influence Factors of Aromatics Market
3
4
Macro-economic Background
Policy in Petrochemical Industry
Revolution of New Coal Chemical
Supply & Demand Analysis
Trading Activity
Macro-Economic Background:Opportunity for Foreign Investment
China Capital
Foreign Capital
The Sinopec mixed ownership reform could attract a new round of
investment.
Policy in Petrochemical:Oil Market Shuffle
China oil reform caused changes in the demand for aromatic
Gasoline Upgrade VAT QR Code New Policy
Technology Implementation & Cost Feasibility
Technique
Project
Capacity
Process
Start Time
Location
Methanol to Mixed
Aromatic
Inner Mongolia Qinghua
100,000mt/year
Shanxi Coal
Chemical Institute -
One Step
2012
Inner
Mongolia
Xinjiang Xinye
100,000mt/year
2013
Xingjiang
Tangshan Jingjie
200,000mt/year
Sep 2014
Hebei
Methylation of TL &
methanol to PX
Yangzi Petrochemical
200,000mt/year
Sinopec Technique
2012
Jiangsu
Methanol to Mixed
Aromatic
Ninxia Qinghua
150,000mt/year
Shanxi Coal
Chemical Institute -
One Step
H2 2014
Ningxia
Source:JYD
Technology Implementation & Cost Feasibility
Project
Partner
Capacity
Products
Location
Notes
Methanol & TL to
PX
CAS Dalian Institute &
CNOOC Huizhou refinery
200,000mt/year PX
1mt of Methanol to
1mt of PX
Guangdong
Test running of
CTA pilot plants
was done in 2013
FMTA
Tsinghua University and
China Huadian Corporation
3.07mt of Methanol
to 1mt of Aromatic
Shaanxi
Test running was
done in 2013
Source:JYD
Oil Reform & Expanded Capacity will Bring Changes in Supply &
Demand
Supply in China
China oil reform may boost the domestic demand for TL & ISO-MX and reduce the public sale
of TL & MX
The expanded capacity of PX-BZ in Q4 2014 and 2015 is
limited in China
Supply in Northeast Asia
The import volume of PX and BZ to China in 2015 is still
unknown.
The Asian PX profits and the operation rate changes will
affect the supply of TL & MX.
BZ New Consumption will be 3.688 million tons from Aug 2014 to 2015
Plants Name Capacity of Styrene (KT) Start Time Location Dongming Petrochemical 80 Sep 2014 Shandong
CNOOC 100 Sep 2014 Hainan
Abel chemical 500 End of 2014 Jiangsu
Shandong Yuhuang 200 End of 2014 Shandong
Ningbo Keyuan 100 End of 2014 Zhejiang
CNOOC Daxie 250 2015 Zhejiang
Total 1,230
Company Name New Capacity of CPL(KT) Start Time Location
Shijiazhuang Refining 150 Sep 2014 Hebei
Jvhua Group 100 Sep 2014 Zhejiang
Shandong Fangming 100 End of 2014 Shandong
Shandong Luxi 100 H2 2014 Shandong
Lanhua Technology 200 H2 2014 Shanxi
Inner Mongolia Qinghua 200 H2 2014 Inner Mongolia
Sinopec 600 2015 Guangdong
China National Chemical Engineering Group 200 2015
Total 1,650
Source:JYD
BZ New Consumption will be 3.688 million tons from Aug 2014 to 2015
Company Name New Capacity of Phenol(KT) New Capacity of Acetone Start Time Location
Sinopec Mitsui 250 150 Q4 2014 Shanghai
FCFC 300 180 Q4 2014 Zhejiang
CEPSA 250 150 Q4 2014 Shanghai
Total 800
Company Name New Capacity of Aniline(KT) Start Time Location
Ningbo Wanhua 180 Oct 2014 Zhejiang
Yantai Wanhua 360 Oct 2014 Shandong
Total 540
Company Name New Capacity of CYC(KT) Start Time Location
Huafeng Group 100 Oct 2014 Chongqing
Huafeng Group 100 Oct-Nov 2014 Liaoning
Total 200
Source:JYD
BZ Downstream Suffer Losses, Expanded Plants may Delay
2012年芳烃产业整体走势
Styrene Phenol Aniline CYC
Average Operation Rate 2013 80% 85% 62% 81%
Average Operation Rate H1 2014 65% 86% 70% 80%
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14
SM Phenol Aniline Cyclohexanone
Product Margin of BZ Derivative RMB/mt
Source:JYD
The Increase Demand of Gasoline Blending for TL is Unknown
The implementation of new policy and the consumption of oil products will be deciding factors for the demand growth of TL
Gasoline Blending
The demand of fine chemicals for TL is relatively stable
Fine Chemical Industry
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
China Gasoline Inventories Change on Month
China Gasoline Inventories kt
Source:JYD
MX Demand:The Demand of PX Remained as Question
• The promotion of environmental friendly waterborne will decrease the demand for solvent-MX.
Solvent-MX
• The demand of oil blending is supposed to grow in theory, but the actual growth is less than expected.
Gasoline Blending
• The demand of PX for MX depends on the price spread of ISO-MX and PX.
PX
China Adopted more Naphtha & Condensate, the Demand of MX is not
that Optimistic
The two pictures show us the PX profit with ISO-MX and naphtha as feedstock respectively. Apparently,
the adoption of naphtha is more cost-efficient.
-200
0
200
400
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
PX Product Margin PX CFR China
PX Production Margin (NAP Feedstock) USD/mt
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
PX Product Margin ISO-MX FOB Korean PX CFR China
USD/mt PX Product Margin (ISO-MX Feedstock)
Source:JYD Source:JYD
Trading Activity:Changes in TL & MX Trading
未来
Changes in Trading
RMB:Trading activity was less in spot market, but more in Future market.
USD:CFR market activity was less,more market hedge and turnover in FOB market.
Outlook: Aromatics Will Form W-shape in 2014
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
East China TL East China BZ East China ISO-MX
China Aromatics Price Trend, 2014
Forecast
Unit:CNY/mt
Source: JYD
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