outlook on power interconnection in north-east asia 1-4... · 2018-11-19 · 3 1. current status of...

Outlook on Power Interconnection in

North-East Asia

China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute (EPPEI)

2018.10

1

Outline

Current status of power interconnection

Potential analysis

Outlook on power interconnection in North-East Asia

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2

3

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1、Current status of power interconnection

3

1. Current status of power interconnection

China-Russia

5 lines ，500/220/110kV

Import：3290 GWh

China-North Korea

2 lines，66kV

Export：1 GWh

China-Mongolia

12 lines，220/35/10kV

Export：1220 GWh

Power Interconnection between China and North-East Asian

Neighboring Countries, 2017

4

2804 3662

4549 5353 4846 4715 4700 4700

5776 4716

2686

4718 3414 3238 3000

2790

0

5000

10000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2010-2017 Power Trade between China and Neighboring

Countries

Import

Export

Unit: GWh

Russia

69%

Myanmar

31%

Power Import

Vietnam

52%

Myanmar

5%

Laos

8%

Mongolia

35%

Power Export


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Entrusted by ESCAP and China National Energy Administration, EPPEI is Chinese

Secretariat of the Energy Connectivity expert working group of the ESCAP Energy

Commission.


During the 73rd Session of ESCAP, we adopted a proposal to establish Energy

Connectivity expert working group which is proposed by China, 2017.

6


Research on Outlook of Power Interconnection between China and

North East Asia Countries

China-Russia Power Cooperation Planning

China-Mongolia Energy Cooperation Planning

Research on Roadmap of Energy Connectivity in Asia and Pacific

Region

……

Related Research conducted by EPPEI:

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2、Potential analysis

8

• Russia Energy Resource Reserves

2. Potential Analysis

8

Wind Power theoretical Reserves 80 Trillion kWh/Year

Solar Power theoretical Reserves 2.2 Trillion kWh/Year

Hydro Power theoretical Reserves 2.3 Trillion kWh/Year

Coal Proved Reserves 106 Billion Tons

Nature Gas Proved Reserves 32 Trillion Cubic Meter

9

• Russia

EFA (Energy Forecasting Agency) of Russia made forecast on the power

demand of Russia in 2030, and put forward 2 scenario.


Power electricity consumption forecast

Unit: TWh

Power generation capacity forecast

Unit: GW

980 994

1151

1388

1619

1860

980 985

1127

1288

1419

1593

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

High scenario Low scenario

215 215

379

324

High scenario Low scenario

2008 2030

2.6% 1.9%

10


• Russia

According to Russia EFA forecast, the power surplus installed capacity

of Russia in 2020 will be more than 40GW. Russia has the potential of

conducting interconnection with neighboring countries and exporting

surplus power electricity.

Eastern Power Joint System Power Surplus >4GW

Eastern Siberia Power Surplus >5GW

11

• Mongolia Energy Resource Reserves


Wind Power theoretical Reserves 1.1 TW

Solar Power theoretical Reserves 1.5 TW

Coal Proved Reserves 12 Billion Tons

12

• Mongolia

The 2015-2030 power demand forecast report of Mongolia put forward 3 scenario. The growth rate of power electricity demand in Mongolia will be very fast.


Power electricity consumption forecast Unit: TWh Unit: GW

Power load forecast

Mongolia’s power system is not particularly large. Although the power consumption

will increase very rapidly ,the amount of power consumption is relatively small and the

demand for domestic installed capacity will not be very large.

12.3

22

6.59

13.3

23.8

15.8

28.3

2015 2020 2030

Low Mid High

13%,15%,19%

6%,6%,6%

2.24

4.07

1.25

2.4

4.38

2.72

4.96

2015 2020 2030

Low Mid High

12%,14%,17%

6.2%,6.2%,2.9%

13

• Mongolia

Mongolia has abundant energy resources, which can be converted into

power electricity. According to preliminary estimates, Mongolia export

power potential is more than 15GW in the eastern and southern regions. In

the future, Mongolia would actively seek power consumption market in the

Northeast Asian countries.


中国

蒙古国

Power development potential>15GW

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• Republic of Korea

The 7th power demand and supply long-term planning (2015-2029) made

forecast for power demand of ROK. The power electricity consumption may

reach to 657TWh in 2029. South Korea may need to add new power capacity

of 28GW from now to 2029. This demand may be met by importing energy

resources to build power plants, or by importing power electricity directly from

neighboring countries.



Unit: TWh

505

657

2015 2029

2.2%

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• Republic of Korea


The power generation in ROK

are mainly coal-fired and gas-

fired units, while the amount of

coal and gas resource in ROK is

relatively small which largely rely

on import.

Korean power companies

hope to guarantee their domestic

power supply through power

interconnection with neighbors .

15

16

• Democratic People's Republic of Korea


Recently, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has gradually eased. The

future power construction market in North Korea is worthy of attention and

research. At the same time, it also provides more possibilities for the

Northeast Asia power interconnection channels.

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• Japan

The forecast by EIA on power installed capacity and generation of Japan are as

follow. The demand of power generation in Japan is not growing very fast in the

future. However, because of the large base amount, the new installed capacity is

still relatively large, need to add more than 40GW new power generation.


Power electricity production forecast

Unit: TWh Unit: TkW

1013

1042

1079

1111

2016 2020 2025 2030

0.7%

0.7%

0.6%

Power generation capacity forecast

3300

3434

3591

3737

2016 2020 2025 2030

0.9%

1.0%

0.8%

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The power generation in Japan are mainly coal-fired, gas-fired, oil-fired and nuclear power units, while the amount of coal, gas and oil in Japan is relatively small which largely rely on import.

Moreover, Japan focuses on new energy development and utilization to ensure environment protection and sustainable development. Japanese companies has been conducting power interconnection in NEA related research positively.

Thermal

Hydro

Nuclear

• Japan power plants distribution map

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• China

In 2017, the overall power consumption in China is 6310TWh. The average

annual growth rate from 2012-2017 is 4.9%.

Unit: TWh


1347

2478

4200 4703 4966

5342 5640 5690 5920

6310 13.0%

11.1%12.0%

5.6%

7.6%

5.6%

0.9%

5.0%

6.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Power Consumption Increase Rate

20

• China

By the end of 2017, the overall capacity in China is 1780GW. The average annual

growth rate from 2012-2017 is 7.3%.

Hydro power is 340GW, wind power is 160GW, solar power is 130GW. Renewable

energy power generation accounted for 38%.

Thermal

62%

Hydro

19%

Nuclear

2%Wind

9%

Solar and Other

8%

2017 Power Generation Structure

Unit：GW


319

517

966 1063

1147 1250

1360 1530

1650 1780

10.1%

13.3%

9.9%

7.9%9.0% 8.8%

12.5%

7.8%

7.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Installed Capacity Increase Rate

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• China

According to the 13th Five-Year power development planning, the total power

consumption of China will reach 9500 TWh in 2030. In the next decade. Power

demand in Northeast and North China will continue to grow steadily.


Unit: TWh

5550

7000

85009500

2015 2020 2025 2030

4.8%

4.0%2.3%

North-East Region

ChinaNorth Region


Unit: TWh

418 477

572

2016 2020 2025

3.6%3.7%

1448 1740

2052

2016 2020 2025

4.7%

3.4%

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• China


2025-2030, north-east and north China have certain space for power

growth, which could consider to receive power from outside.

In the long term, China encourages to conduct research on financial and

technical feasibility of more power interconnection projects, based on the

principle of mutual benefits.

Before 2025, northeast and north China power generations are

oversupplied, which have the potential to export clean energy to the

neighboring countries .

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• North East Asia Power Flow Direction


Market

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3、Outlook on power interconnection

in North-East Asia

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◼ Political factors: cross-border power connectivity requiresrelevant countries have strong political trust; needs tocoordinate the demands of all stakeholders; concerns ondegrading of state energy security.

◼ Economic and business factors: Large investments; Complicatedbusiness model. The payback period is long and uncertain,especially under different legal and national systems.

◼ Technical and standards factors: requires to coordinate theplanning and operation of power systems in different countries,including grid code, electricity market design and dispatching,etc..

◼ ……

3. Outlook

• Challenges

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3. Outlook

• NEED TO STEP BY STEP

Road-Map Idea：

⚫ Short term(now-2025)： Give priority to the implementation of less

difficult interconnection projects. Actively conduct research on difficult

projects. Improve consensus.

⚫ Long term(2025-2050): Based on the experience of implemented

interconnection projects, we will expand the consensus among NEA

countries and promote wider regional power interconnection.

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3. Outlook

Short-term：

North-east and north China are all

over-supplied. Therefore, China and

Russia could maintain a stable power

trade in recent. Carrying out research

work to expand the scale of

interconnection.

Long-term：

North China has certain space for

power growth. It is possible to

promote large-scale power inter-

connection projects in China and

Russia.

• China-Russia

Research could be conducted on the scale, plan, economics ofpower transmission project between China and Russia.

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3. Outlook

The cross border power trade can be carried out in the early stage.The large-scale power interconnection could be taken intoconsideration according the power market, electricity tariff and etc..

• China-Mongolia Short-term：

Strengthen the interconnection

between Mongolia southern region

and China Inner Mongolia by 220kV or

500kV. Expand the scale of power trade

between the two sides. Improve the

stability of regional power grids, and

promote the optimal allocation of

resources in close border area.

Long-term：

It is possible to construct a large-scale

power interconnection channel, which

exports the power from southeast

Mongolia to north China.

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3. Outlook

29

There are still technical, economic and other related issues in the power interconnectionbetween China, Korea and Japan that need further in-depth research.In the future, relevant projects can be promoted in a timely manner according torelevant research results and the willing of all countries.

Technology

Undersea power transmission is Difficult

Economics

Huge investment

Power source

Renewable energy from China, Russia and

Mongolia

Distribution

Complex

• China-Korea-Japan Power Interconnection Long-term：

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3. Outlook

For long-term, research could be conducted to explore the feasibility of the

interconnection on Russia-China-DPRK-Korea-Japan, including the transmission scale,

technology selection, economic evaluation, operation mode, business model, etc..

• Russia-China-DPRK-Korea-Japan Power Interconnection

Long-term：

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3. Outlook

Suggestions

1. Strengthen the cooperation mechanism for power

interconnection

• Strengthen policy communication between countries, makefull use of existed multilateral cooperation platform ormechanism, promote the cooperation mechanism of powerinterconnection. Mobilize the enthusiasm of relevantenterprises and financial.

2. Jointly carry out the research and planning work on power

interconnection

• Carry out the research jointly on power interconnectionplanning and make reasonable roadmap with widelyparticipation. Make full exchange and coordination amongeach country’s power development planning.

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3. Outlook

Suggestions

3. Promote the exchange of grid construction and

operation standards• Study on the grid construction and operation standards of

multiple countries. Strengthen the exchange of relatedstandards, to provide support for power interconnectionprojects.

4. Explore the construction of regional power market

• Study power market mechanism of related countries, andformulate regional power trading and dispatching mechanism.Explore to establish regional power market.

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3. Outlook

Suggestions

5. Increase financial support

• Build a platform for cooperation between financialinstitutions and power enterprises, broadenfinancing channels, reduce financing costs, andprovide financial support for power interconnectionprojects.

6. Promote innovation and application in some key

technologies

• Accelerate technological innovation, solve theproblems of long-distance transmission of largecapacity under ocean. Strengthen cooperation andpromote exchanges of technical personnel in thefield of power interconnection.

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Thank you!

outlook on power interconnection in north-east asia 1-4... · 2018-11-19 · 3 1. current status of...

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