TABLE 2: STATISTICAL TRENDS - ALL RESIDENTIAL (Greater Victoria and Other Areas)

QUARTER-TO-QUARTER COMPARISONS

4 Qtr 09 4 Qtr 10 Changeth th

New Listings 2,100 2,007 -93 Sales 1,664 1,222 -442Avg Sale Price $494,195 $504,950 +$10,755 Median Sale Price $442,000 $440,000 -$2,000Ratio Sales-to-Listings . 79 .61 -.18Avg Days to Sell 50 72 +22Sale Price as % of Org List Price 97.6% 94.9% -2.7%Mortgages Rates (Posted 3 yr Fixed) 4.48% 4.15% -0.33%

REAL ESTATE IN VICTORIA...Keeping You Informed Winter 2011

THE NATIONAL PICTURE

The real estate market in Canada has shown remarkable

resilience in 2010 in the face of an uncertain economic recovery.

A Scotiabank Group report entitled “Global Real Estate Trends,”

released in December 2010, reported the results of a survey of the

housing market in twelve advanced countries. It found that six

countries enjoyed home price increases in 2010. In fact, Canada

ranked third. Average home prices increased in Australia, Sweden,

Canada, the UK, Switzerland and France; were flat in Germany and

the USA, and fell in Italy, Japan, Spain and Ireland.

The real estate market in Canada started on a strong note in 2010 with

sales and prices initially up over levels in 2009. But signs that the

market was starting to soften emerged in late spring, despite mortgage

rates hovering near historic lows. W eakening consumer confidence,

concerns with the pace of the economic recovery and job growth, as

well as a general sense of uncertainty about the future, led to balanced

market conditions throughout the remainder of 2010.

New listings of residential properties on the MLS® were up 7.9%

from 2009 and sales were down a modest -3.9%. Nationally, the

total dollar volume for MLS® residential sales was up 1.7% to

$151.55 billion in 2010. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (a measure of

market strength) fell to .52 in 2010, compared to .58 in 2009. The

national average sale price of residential properties was $339,030

(a new high) in 2010, up 5.8% from $320,333 in 2009.

Table 1 provides an analysis of 2010 MLS® residential sales for

selected cities/areas in the country. All of them enjoyed a year-over-

year increase in average sale prices in 2010 compared to 2009. The

strongest percentage increases were in Newfoundland/Labrador,

Vancouver, Quebec City, W innipeg, Toronto and Montreal.

Most analysts are forecasting the continuation of a balanced

market in Canada in 2011. According to the Canadian Real Estate

Association’s (CREA) forecast, residential MLS® sales nation-

wide are expected to fall -9.0% in 2011 to about 402,500 units and

average sales prices will decrease by about -1.3% to $326,000. The Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s

(CMHC) forecast is somewhat more optimistic with residential MLS® sales around 438,000 units in 2011 and average

sales prices about the same in 2011 at $339,800.

OUTLOOK: STEADY SALES...STABLE PRICES

DAVID WARDLE BILL ETHIER

COAST CAPITAL REALTY

1075 Pandora Ave, Victoria, B.C. V8V 3P7

Phone (250) 920-7000 - Toll Free 1-888-388-4411EMAIL: info@PropertiesInVictoria.com

TABLE 1: AN ANALYSIS OF SELECTED AREAS - 2010 Sales-to-NewCity/Area Avg Sale Price Change Listings RatioVancouver $675,853 +14.1% .52Victoria $504,561 +6.0% .47 Fraser Valley $451,221 +6.0% .50Toronto $432,264 +9.1% .57Calgary $398,764 +3.3% .45Edmonton $328,806 +2.6% .50Ottawa $328,439 +7.8% .58Hamilton $311,683 +7.1% .64Montreal $297,621 +8.3% .59Saskatoon $296,293 +6.2% .53Regina $258,023 +5.7% .58Halifax/Dart. $253,610 +6.0% .59Quebec City $237,240 +11.8% .63Nfld/Labrador $235,341 +14.0% .50 Winnipeg $228,706 +10.3% .72

National $339,030 +5.8% .52

TABLE 3: INVENTORY - GREATER VICTORIA

Type of Property Jan 2010 Jan 2011 ChangeSingle Family Dwelling 608 897 +291Condominiums 538 643 +105Townhouses 124 222 +98 Lots/Acreage 232 221 -11Man Home/Rental Pad 66 66 nc Duplexes (Revenue) 5 6 +1Triplexes+ (Revenue) 2 2 nc Totals 1,575 2,057 +482

Seller’s Market

Balanced Market

Buyer’s Market

THE VICTORIA MARKET

Similar to most other cities, the real estate market in Victoria started

2010 in a seller’s market territory. However, by the 2 Qtr momentumnd

began to fade and the market returned to balanced conditions.

Overall, the number of new listings of residential properties in 2010

was 13,250, up 12.8% from 11,745 in 2009. Demand was down from

the level in 2009. Sales of residential properties through the VREB’s

MLS® totalled 6,169 in 2010, down 19.5% from 7,660 in 2009. The

value of residential sales through the VREB totalled $3.113 billion in

2010, down from $3.647 billion in 2009.

In the face of weaker demand, sale prices remained remarkably

strong in 2010. The average sale price of a residential property in

2010 was a record $504,561, up $28,424 or 6.0% from $476,137 in

2009. As shown in Table 1, Victoria has the 2 most valuablend

residential property in Canada. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of

.47, down from .65 in 2009, the Victoria real estate market was in

balanced territory for most of 2010 .

THE MARKET INVENTORY

W ith weaker demand, the inventory of properties for sale in 2010 ran

above the levels in 2009. As shown on Table 3, there were 2,057

properties (including lots and acreage) active on the VREB’s MLS®

database for the Greater Victoria area (i.e., excluding the Malahat, Up-

Island and the Gulf Islands) on Jan 1, 2011, up 31% from Jan 1, 2010.

SINGLE FAMILY DWELLINGS (SFDS)

Sales of SFDs in Greater Victoria totalled 3,236 in 2010, down 21.4%

from 4,117 in 2009. The average sale price of SFDs in 2010 was

$629,925, up $49,177 or 8.5% from $580,748 in 2009. The median

sale price was $564,900 in 2010, up 7.6% from $525,000 in 2009. As

shown in Chart 2, average sale prices trended up from the 1 Qtr ofst

2009, peaking in the 2 Qtr of 2010. The average sale price dippednd

in the 3 Qtr of 2010, then spiked up in the 4 Qtr. The average salerd th

price was $641,170 in the 4 Qtr of 2010, up 4.2% from $615,337 inth

the 4 Qtr. of 2009. (However, it should be noted that the spike in theth

average sale price in the 4 Qtr of 2010 was largely attributable to fourth

sales above the 3 million dollar mark). The sales-to-new-listings ratio

in 2010 fell to .51, from .69 in 2009. SFDs that sold in 2010 were on

the market for an average of 43 days, compared to 49 days in 2009.

CONDOMINIUMS

Condominium sales also declined in 2010 with total sales of 1,781,

down 17.5% from 2,158 in 2009. The average sale price for a condo

was $323,829 in 2010, up 4.0% from $311,392 in 2009. The median

sale price was $292,000. As shown in Chart 3, the average and

median sale prices of condominiums were stable for the most part of

2010. The average sale price in the 4 Qtr was $326,057 and theth

median sale price was $284,000. (Again, the spike in the average sale

price in the 4 Qtr was largely attributable to the sale of a 3 millionth

dollar penthouse at Shoal Point). The sales-to-new-listings ratio was

.47 in 2010, down from .63 in 2009. Condos that sold in 2010 were on

the market for an average of 56 days, compared to 59 days in 2009.

2 REAL ESTATE IN VICTORIA...Keeping You Informed Winter 2011

TOWNHOUSES

Townhouse sales totalled 668 in 2010, down 21.4% from 850 in 2009.

The average selling price was $443,325, up 3.2% from $429,753 in

2009. The median sale price was $419,500 in 2010. The average

sale price in the 4 Qtr of 2010 was $436,418 and the median saleth

price was $415,000. The sales-to-new-listings ratio in 2010 was .52,

compared to .69 in 2009. Townhouses that sold in 2010 were on the

market for an average of 48, the same as in 2009.

LOTS/ACREAGE

Sales of Lots/Acreage totalled 165 in 2010, compared to 236 in 2009.

The average sale price was $393,352, compared to $342,667 in 2009.

The median sale price was $295,000 in 2010.

MARKET OUTLOOK - VICTORIA

W hile the past doesn’t necessarily predict the future, it is instructive to

examine the performance of the Victoria real estate market over the

years. Chart 5 shows the change in the average sale price of single

family dwellings over the past fifty years. Notably, it increased from

$8,795 in 1960 to $629,925 in 2010. Chart 6 shows year-over-year

percentage change in the average sale price for the same period.

During this period, the average sale price increased in forty-two of the

fifty years and decreased in eight years. In fact, only three years

experienced a decrease of greater than -2%; 1982 (-20%), 1984 (-6%)

and 1995 (-5.5%). The average sale price of a single family dwelling

has increased an average of about 10% per annum during this 50 year

period, about 6% above the Consumer Price Index.

This is all to say that, historically, Victoria has enjoyed one of the

strongest, most stable real estate markets in the country. There

seems to be no indication that the underlying fundamentals have

changed. It is unlikely that we will see a return to the heady days of the

recent boom period in the near term. At the same time, it is equally

unlikely that we will see a collapse in sales and prices.

Two forecasts are available on the real estate market in Victoria.

First, the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation is

forecasting that improvement in economic conditions, full time

job growth and attractive interest rates will increase the number

of residential sales in 2011 to around the 6,750 mark, up about 9%

over 2010. CMHC is forecasting that the average sale price for a

residential property will decrease in 2010 by about 2% to

$490,000. Second, the BCREA forecast is virtually identical,

namely that the average price for a residential property will fall by

1% to $495,000 and residential sales in 2011 will increase to about

6,500.

3 REAL ESTATE IN VICTORIA...Keeping You Informed Winter 2011

Real Estate in Victoria... I provide this newsletter to clients, customers and friends to help them keep informed of developments in the real estate marketin the Victoria area. If you do not want to receive this newsletter in the future, please let me know. The information contained herein is based onsources which are believed to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed. The content of this newsletter is copyright©. The data and information outlined hereinwas derived from a number of sources including: the Victoria Real Estate Board and the Canadian Real Estate Association. The Publisher is responsiblefor the analysis of the data and any opinions expressed herein.

4 REAL ESTATE IN VICTORIA...Keeping You Informed Winter 2009

Vic

West

SAANICH WEST

EAST

Malahat and AreaSales: 208Ratio: .38Avg. Sale Price: $464,366% Change: -1.1%

District* Sales Ratio Avg. Sale Price % Chg Victoria/VW 462 .56 $597,059 +8.3Oak Bay 226 .61 $896,781 +11.4Esquimalt 114 .53 $487,612 +2.4View Royal 100 .47 $577,528 +10.0Saanich East 644 .54 $661,090 +7.3Saanich West 317 .50 $566,721 +10.4Central Saanich 161 .49 $632,325 +7.6North Saanich 119 .44 $747,338 +5.4 Sidney 97 .53 $499,051 +5.1Highlands 20 .31 $727,958 +9.0Colwood 246 .61 $522,499 +0.5 Langford 408 .42 $537,730 +9.6Metchosin 26 .32 $634,170 -10.8Sooke 239 .39 $416,494 +3.6Waterfront 120 .35 $1,297,106 -1.3Totals 3,236 .51 $629,925 +8.5*District Avg. Sales Prices exclude sales of “Waterfront”

REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY - GREATER VICTORIA

Single Family DwellingsJanuary 2010 to December 2010

With an Analysis of Year-Over-YearChanges and a Breakdown by District

New Listings: 6,370

Sales: 3,236Ratio Sales to Listings: .51

Average Sale Price: $629,925 Price Change year-over-year: 8.5%

Gulf IslandsSales: 185Ratio: .35Avg. Sale Price: $561,843% Change: +6.2%

Copyright 2011, Real Estate in Victoria