output diversification, input intensification and efficiency: evidence from tajikistan
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"Output Diversification, Input Intensification and Efficiency: Evidence from Tajikistan" presented by Bingxin Yu at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, April 8-9, 2014, Bishkek, KyrgyzstanTRANSCRIPT
REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURE TRANSFORMATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Output Diversification, Input Intensification and Efficiency: Evidence from Tajikistan
Bingxin YuEdina Mwangi
Agriculture in Tajikistan
• Agriculture major component of Tajik economy: 26% GDP, 39% tax revenues• Agricultural imports > agricultural exports• High poverty, mostly rural: national 46.7%, rural 50.8% in 2009
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Total Operating Area (Ha)
Total Income Farm Income
2007 Monthly Income
5010
015
020
025
030
0
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Total Operating Area (Ha)
Total Income Farm Income
2003 Monthly Income
Agricultural reform• Land reform to increase productivity and income• 1992 divide collective farm into dehkan farms• 1995/1997 Presidential Decrees: transferred 75,000 ha from farm
enterprise to hh plots• 2002/09 Dehkan farm Law/Land code• 2007 Freedom to Farm • 2012 Agrarian Reform Programme: development of a productive
and profitable agriculture• Poverty Reduction Strategy 2010-12: increase domestic production
and productivity
Farm structure
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000 Cropland by farm type ('000 ha)
HH Dehkan Enterprise
Share in Taj. (%) HH plot Dehkan
farm Enterprise
Ag. Land 6 67 27
Arable land 23 59 18
Ag. Output 62 30 8
Crop 50 35 14
Livestock 94 3 3
Avg. size 0.3 ha 5-7 ha 354 ha
Source: Lerman (2012), Lerman and Sedik (2009).
Productivity by farm type
• Productivity growth key to output growth • Household plots the leading contributor
TFP growth (%)
Productivity in growth (%)
Land productivity (Somoni/ha)
Contribution to agri. growth (%)
HH plots 8.6 52 17.0 58Dehkan farms 0.0 3 5.47 35
Enterprises 3.0 22 4.39 7
Tajikistan 6.7 45 7.88 100
Source: Lerman (2012), Lerman and Sedik (2009).
020
4060
8010
0
2005 2011
HH Dehkan Enterprise HH Dehkan Enterprise
Wheat Cotton Potatoes Vegetables Other
Crop diversity by farm typeArea (%)
Source:Tajstat.
2011 Area (%) HH Dehkan Enterprise All
Wheat 31 54 14 100
Cotton 0 77 23 100
Potato 56 35 8 100
Vegetable 57 35 8 100
Other 19 60 21 100
All crops 23 59 18 100
Research question• Food security led to land reallocation to food crops: wheat and
potato• Small household plots increases high value crops: horticulture• Agricultural growth and rural poverty reduction driven by non-cotton
crops and livestock (WB 2012)• Food Security Program: diversification and efficiency• Agricultural Reform: diversification
Question 1: Determinants of HH efficiencyQuestion 2: Diversify product mix? Horticulture for income growth?
Methodology• Focus on household agricultural behavior• Output distance function to measure performance and its
sources• Quantify multi-output, multi–input technology • Flexible functional form of translog• Examine determinants of technical efficiency like
diversification and market participation
Data• Tajikistan Living Standards
Survey (TLSS) 2003 & 2007• Nationally representative • 221-229,000 ha• 20-25% of national crop land• Detailed agri. production
info• Assets, infrastructure,
migration, credit, income2003 2007
-
50
100
150
200
250
Other
Dacha
Ind. Dekhan
Remote plot/presi-dential plot
HH plot/garden
000
Ha
Land holding by tenure type
No. of
HH
% of crop land
Total HH area (Ha)
HH owned
Rent in (Ha) HH plot
Pres. plot
Indiv. Dehkan
Total owned
HH Plot only 1,531 28 0.14 0.12
-
- 0.12 0.02
HH/PP 651 26 0.31 0.08 0.16 - 0.23 0.08
HH/ID 685 46 0.96 0.10 0.04 0.36 0.51 0.45
Total 2,867 100 0.34 0.10 0.06 0.08 0.22 0.12
• Rent in from local government, sovkhoz or kolkhoz
Land distribution by tenure type0
24
6D
en
sity
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Total Operating Area (Ha)
HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID
Land allocation by crop
HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Wheat Potato Fruit VegetableOther
Share of crop sale by tenure type0
51
01
52
0
wheat potatoes fruits vegetables
HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID
Input use by tenure type
HH plot only
HH/PP HH/ID
Area (Ha) 0.16 0.34 0.84
HH reporting input use (%)
Fertilizer 37 53 53 Hired labor 2 10 14
Machinery 8 28 44
Manure 11 13 23 Agri. chemicals 1 1 2
2007
Fertilizer SeedMachine/fuel ManureOther
Input cost
Fertilizer intensity
010
020
030
040
0kg
/ha
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of wheat HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID
010
020
030
040
0kg
/ha
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of horticulture HH Plot only HH/PP HH/ID
Land productivity
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
som
oni/h
a
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of wheat HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID
Wheat
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
som
oni/h
a
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of horticulture HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID
Horticulture
Estimation• Outputs: wheat, potato, vegetable, fruits, other crops• Inputs: Labor, land, seed, fertilizer• Determinants of efficiency: o Yield enhancing technology (irrigation, machinery)o Land tenure (type, rental, fragmentation)o Infrastructure and services (market, credit, extension)o Farm decision (commercialization, diversification)o hh characteristics
Efficiency and land size
0-0.1 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.3 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.5 0.5-0.6 0.6-0.7 0.7-10.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
No. of HH HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID
Area (Ha)
Effici
ency
Determinants of efficiency
AllHH plot
only HH /PP HH/ IDExtension 0.307 0.529
Area under horticulture (%) 0.005 0.018 0.028
Commercialization (sale %)
Wheat 0.015
Potato
Vegetable 0.050 0.166 0.016 0.016
Fruit 0.015 0.009 0.014
HH size 0.041 0.059 0.114
Migration 0.291
Determinants of efficiency
AllHH plot
only HH /PP HH/ IDExtension 0.307 0.529
Area under horticulture (%) 0.005 0.018 0.028
Commercialization (sale %)
Wheat 0.015
Potato
Vegetable 0.050 0.166 0.016 0.016
Fruit 0.015 0.009 0.014
HH size 0.041 0.059 0.114
Migration 0.291
Regional variation
HH plot
only HH/PP HH/ID Total
Kahtlon 0.65 0.69 0.70 0.66
RRS 0.60 0.69 0.67 0.62
Sogd 0.62 0.66 0.71 0.64
GBAO 0.56 0.54 0.67 0.61
Dushanbe 0.53 0.76 0.55
Total 0.63 0.68 0.69 0.64
• Considerable room to improve performance
• Larger plot of HH/PP and HH/ID more efficient in using current input mix
Diversification improves performance0
.2.4
.6.8
HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID
No Yes No Yes No Yes
Efficiency (vegetable)
01,
000
2,00
03,
000
4,00
05,
000
som
oni/h
aHH plot only HH/PP HH/ID
No Yes No Yes No Yes
Land productivity (vegetable)
Limited benefit from wheat farming
01,
000
2,00
03,
000
4,00
0so
mon
i/ha
HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID
No Yes No Yes No Yes
Land productivity (wheat)
0.2
.4.6
.8
HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID
No Yes No Yes No Yes
Efficiency (wheat)
Conclusion
• Overall, efficiency of HH agricultural production is low• More extension efforts are needed for household plots• There are potential efficiency gains from increasing land
size for smallholders: • Policies to facilitate land rentals may be useful
• Diversification to horticulture improves productivity, but involves a tradeoff between policy objectives
• Crop commercialization, especially vegetable and fruits, leads to increased efficiency and agricultural productivity
Thank you!