overview etccdi e - wcrp-climate.org
TRANSCRIPT
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Overview ETCCDI
Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices
Albert Klein TankKNMI, The Netherlands
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Agenda items
• Short history of the ETCCDI
• Current status
• Extremes indices (and issues)
• Regional workshops
• Use of indices in climate services
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Motivation
• In the late 90s almost no
information was available to
answer the question:
“Has climate variability
changed, or have climate
extremes changed?”
• ETCCDI was established in
1999 to support the IPCC-TAR
IPCC-TAR, 2001, Fig 2.36
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ETCCDI indices
Klein Tank et al., 2009, WMO-TD No. 1500
• List of 27 standardized indices for near the surface over land
• Internationally coordinated
• Focus on counts of days crossing a threshold
• Used for both observations and models
• Coupled with simple trend analysis
techniques and standard D&A methods
• Complement the analysis of more rare
extremes using EVT
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upper 10-ptile 1961-1990
the year 1996
lower 10-ptile1961-1990
Percentile thresholds for TN10p & TN90p
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“cold nights”
upper 10-ptile 1961-1990
the year 1996
lower 10-ptile1961-1990
Percentile thresholds for TN10p & TN90p
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“warm nights”
“cold nights”
upper 10-ptile 1961-1990
the year 1996
lower 10-ptile1961-1990
Percentile thresholds for TN10p & TN90p
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IPCC-WG1, 2013, Table SPM.1
Patroon van recente opwarming duidelijk anders dan in begin van de eeuw
Indices in IPCC
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Observed change in precipitation over land
Total amounts
IPCC-WG1, 2013, Fig SPM.2
Index for heavy precipitation (R95p)
IPCC-WG1, 2013, Fig 2.33
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IPCC-WG1, 2013, Fig. 10.17
change, 1951-2000D&A
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Projected change
Index for heavy precipitation (R95p)
IPCC-WG1, 2013, Fig 11.17
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Zhang et al., WIREs Clim Change, 2011
Workshops use R-based software package developed by Environment Canada
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FEB 2013(CMA)
NOV 2012(WMO)
APR 2014(WMO)
DEC 2009APR 2012MAY 2014
(BMKG-KNMI)
APR 2013(WMO)
Zhang et al., WIREs Clim Change, 2011
Workshops use R-based software package developed by Environment Canada
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Zhang et al., WIREs Clim Change, 2011
Workshops use R-based software package developed by Environment Canada
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ETCCDI triggers DARE activities
At best… …but more common
36 million images at NOAA Climate archive in Mauritius
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Issues with indices definitions
• Discontinuities of percentile indices at the beginning and end
of the base period (Zhang et al., J. Climate, 2005)
• Trends in indices for the cold tail and warm tail not directly
comparable (Klein Tank et al., J. Climate, 2003)
• Different meaning of indices for areal averaged data (climate
models) compared to point data (stations)
• Lack of information if separate model climatologies are used
for each simulation (Sillmann et al., Int. J. Climatol, 2014)
• ….
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Leander et al., J. Climate, 2014
Issues with R95p
Season Region R95p S95p
DJF north 77.4 % 38.5 %
south 60.3 % 63.5 %
Contrary to R95p, which uses a fixed climatological 95th percentile, the new index S95p assumes a separate 95th percentile for each year
Positive trends over Europe, 1961-2010 (MK-test)
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Membership and sponsors
• Do we involve the relevant experts?
• Current sponsors and members:
• Many other experts are involved on an ad hoc basis
WMO-CCl JCOMM CLIVAR GEWEX
Moukouba Moutoumounkata Scott Woodruff Kathy McInnes Lisa Alexander
Ying Sun Kevin Horsburgh Gabi Hegerl Lukas Gudmundsson
Jorge Vazquez-Aguirre Xiaolan Wang Xuebin Zhang (co-chair) Ali Behrangi
James Renwick
Albert Klein Tank (co-chair)
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Use of indices for climate services
Climate Change Service
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Use of indices for climate services
• ECA&D data repository www.ecad.eu
• ICA&D www.ecad.eu/icad.php:
• The ECA&D concept transferred to other regions of the world,
• in particular Southeast Asia, Latin America and West Africa
BMKG
Besselaar et al., BAMS, 2014
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• In situ datasets (APGD,E-OBS) against regional reanalysis datasets for the 95% quantile of daily precipitation (mm) in the year 2008 (EU-FP7 projects EURO4M and UERRA)
Frei, 2014, EURO4M deliverable 2.13
Calculating indices for reanalysis data
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Questions?