overview of cmaps advanced travel model cadre kermit wies, deputy executive director for research...
TRANSCRIPT
OVERVIEW OF CMAP’S ADVANCED TRAVEL MODEL CADRE
Kermit Wies, Deputy Executive Director for Research and AnalysisAMPO Modeling Group, November 2010
Why Advance the CMAP Models?
O Answer modern urban planning questionsO How do people arrange their activities?O What factors affect their choices?O How sensitive are they to change?
O Keep our methods “state-of-the art”O Advanced models underway at most large
MPOsO Take advantage of research partnershipsO Show off
Who is the “CMAP Modeling Cadre”?
O The (growing) team of advanced modeling experts that contribute to CMAP’s advanced model system
O Original 5 members authored the “Strategic Plan for Advanced Model Development”
O Two consultant contracts for Freight and Pricing have been issued
O Federal research collaborations underway
CMAP’s Strategic Plan for Advanced Model Development
O IntroductionO Model management principles
O Three ChaptersO Policy ResponseO Data DevelopmentO Computing Environment
O Two AppendicesO Behavioral model integrationO Demand/Supply model integration
CMAP’s Model Management Principles
OUltimate Goal: Complete activity and travel microsimulation
O Incremental coupling : agent-based demand and supply
OPersistent attention to model integration
(the science)Model developers:
OOngoing activity and travel survey programOOngoing performance data acquisitionORegional planning indicatorsOActive planning priorities
(the product)the customer:
CMAP’s Model Management Principles
CHAPTER 1: POLICY RESPONSE
OTwo major sections:OPolicy analysis requirementsOAdvanced models response
capabilities
Policy Analysis Requirements
O Regional Comprehensive Plan (Go To 2040)O Livable communitiesO Regional mobilityO Human capitalO Efficient governance
O Transportation Investments and StrategiesO Air quality conformityO Major capital projectsO Freight
Advanced models response capabilities
First Generation Second Generation
Population Synthesis
Zonal Detail
Network Detail
Long Term Choices
Activity-based Tours
Freight System
Network Assignment
Economy and Land Use
Any policy analysis requiring alternatives evaluation or forecasting should start here.
Basiccomputational modules
Module coupling and integration
CHAPTER 2: DATA DEVELOPMENT
OThree major sections:O Data required by advanced model featuresO Suggested data resourcesO Data development program
Data required by advanced model features
Survey Data Spatial Data
Network Data
Internal personal travel
External travel
Visitor travel
Airport travel
Freight agents
Traffic microsimulation
Bike/Ped agentsData development needed for an advanced model should start here.
Ongoing
survey progra
m
Coded and
complete
Data Resource Requirements
O Survey DataO Household and visitor diariesO External and airport interceptsO Business enterprises, commodity flows, intermodal
O Spatial DataO Base and projections for:
O population, housing, employment, school, parking, hotels, touristO Network Data
O Full streets for GIS interpretationO Coded for static and dynamic assignment :
O Highway, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, freightO Traffic and ridership data
O counts, speed, travel time, queues for validating:O autos, trucks, transit, pedestrian, bicycles, external, intermodal
Data Development Program
O Internal ongoing survey work programO Freight business modelsO CensusO Purchase commercial datasetsO Data exchange with managers and
operators
CHAPTER 3: COMPUTING ENVIRONMENT
O Algorithms, calculations and proceduresO Effective software and hardware
solutions
Algorithms, calculations and procedures
O Calculating activity patternsO Computationally efficientO Individual decision making and interactionsO Continuous variation in coefficients
O Tour-based travel modelingO Bi-directional variationO Spatial chaining behavior
O Challenges remainO Practical logsum computationO Continuous network level-of-service and
equilibrium
Effective Software and Hardware Solutions
OExamples of:O Common modeling frameworkO General software architectureO CPU distribution and threadingO Hardware configurationsO Staffing and qualifications
TWO APPENDICES ON MODEL INTEGRATION
O “Intra” Activity-based model integrationO Focuses on problem of modeling
simultaneous or sequence-independent choices within different AB frameworks
O “Inter” demand – supply model integrationO Focuses on problem of exchange of
valid level-of-service and activity-based information between demand and supply frameworks.