Overview of Future Year Emissions Processing for CMAQ Modeling

Urban, Regional Modeling and Analysis SectionDivision of Air Resources

New York State Department of Environmental ConservationJune 21, 2005

Emissions Processing

• SMOKE2.1 is used to process CMAQ ready emissions for the12 km modeling domain for the CB-4 mechanism, no future-year simulations are planned for the 36 km domain

• Current focus:– 2009 base– May – September

• Next:– 2009 control?– Remaining months?

2009 Emission Inventories and Processing

• Non-MANE-VU:– VISTAS “BaseD” 2009 files used for area,

nonroad, mobile, and non-EGU point sources:• Used for VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP states• MRPO numbers were based on NEI and national

growth/control factors• VISTAS is currently developing and testing “BaseF”

files• For mobile source processing through MOBILE6,

monthly average temperatures are used• Processing is complete for May – September

2009 Emission Inventories and Processing• MANE-VU (As of November 14, 2005):

– Area and Non-EGU Point Sources:• growth/control based on 2002 Version 2• NIF file and SMOKE growth/control files available• SMOKE growth/control output does not match NIF files• States reviewed NIF files, followed by conversion to IDA (in

progress)

– Nonroad Sources:• 2009 IDA files available• SMOKE processing complete for May - September

– Mobile Sources:• NESCAUM collected and compiled state-submitted future-year

(2009, 2012, 2018) VMT and MOBILE6 input files• SMOKE processing for May – September complete for 2009

with day-specific temperatures

2009 Emission Inventories and Processing

• EGU Point Sources Domain-Wide (As of November 14, 2005):– 2009 BaseCase RPO IPM Run incl. CAIR

• Parsed files were converted to NIF by PECHAN• NJDEP is converting NIF files to IDA, creating

annualized “summer” and “winter” files• Lat/lon conversions from UTM / missing lat/lon• Will be used with revised temporal profiles that

preserve the summer/winter mass split from IPM and the month-to-month variations of the state-specific profiles developed by VISTAS based on 2002 CEM data

• SMOKE processing will commence once the IDA files are created

2009 Emission Inventories• Canada:

– area/nonroad/mobile emissions:• Environment Canada provided 2010, 2015, and

2020 area, nonroad, and mobile source inventories in IDA format in September 2005 to EPA and the RPOs

• These emissions were downloaded and processed for May – September, 2002

• In October, Environment Canada discovered an error in these inventories and is currently working on an update

– Point source emissions: • No access to future year point source inventories

Summary• Missing Pieces for 2009 SMOKE processing:

– MANE-VU 2009 area and non-EGU point source IDA files

– EGU IDA files for the 2009 RPO base IPM scenario– Canada area, nonroad, and mobile source

inventories– Canada point source inventory

• Timeline:– Hope to finish emissions processing by the end of

November 2005 and perform CMAQ 2009 base case simulations during December 2005