Overview of Key Trends, 2009

Presented to Council27 November 2009

Prof N B PityanaVice-Chancellor & Principal

HEMIS Enrolment Trends, 2004-10

2004 2005 2006 2007 (Active Only)

2008 (Active Only)

2009 (1st Sub)

2009 (2nd Sub To Date)

2009 (Pred. Active

HC)

2010 (MoE

Target)- 50 000

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

HEMIS Enrolment Trends, 2004-10• Headcount enrolments expanded steadily

between 2004 and 2008 from 205 811 to 261 927 – despite the fact that from 2007 onwards, only active students were counted

• In 2009, for the first time, Unisa’s student enrolments flattened out– The 2009 1st HEMIS submission counted 237 473 – a

substantial drop of 9,3% over the previous year. This can be explained by the later exam date and consequently fewer financial cancellation reinstatements by the HEMIS census date

– This explanation is corroborated by the provisional 2009 2nd submission which shows 255 904 active headcounts to date. This indicates that a substantial number of financial cancellations have already been reinstated

– On this basis, DISA predicts a final active HC total of 260 749 for 2009 – slightly above the 2010 Ministerial target

Success Rates, 2004-8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 MoE

Target

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Success Rates, 2004-8 • Unisa’s FTE Success Rates have increased from

52,06% in 2004 to 54,89% in 2008 – despite a decline to 50,65% in 2006

• This steady increase augers well for the achievement of the 2010 Ministerial target of 56% by 2010

Current Institutional Performance against 2015 Strategic Plan: Scorecard of 17 PIs Performance

Trend Performance

Indicator Target Target Date

Current Performance

Current Performance Against Target

Prognosis of Meeting Target

PI 15: Personnel expenditure as a proportion of total expenditure, 2004-8 59% 2008 59,1 0,1 Above Target Reached

PI 2: Headcount Enrolments, 2006-9 235 000 250 000

2010 2015 261 927 +3 000 Above Target Reached

PI 14: Assets-to-liabilities ratio 2004-8 3,5 2008 3,9 0,4 Above Target Reached PI 16: Nett surplus as a proportion of annual

turnover, 2004-8 5% 2008 6,7% 1,7% Above Target Reached

PI 6: Increase in Accredited Research outputs per year 2006–10 70 2010 -31,9 101,9 Below Target Possible PI 9: Accumulated Total Thuthuka grant holders 2004-9 250 2015 177 73 Below Target Probable PI 13: Proportion (ETD) Expenditure of Payroll per annum 3% of Payroll 2015 1% 2% Below target Possible

PI 4: Unisa’s position among South African universities in terms of research outputs, 2007 5th Position 2015 6th Position 1 Above Target Unlikely PI 5: Unisa NRF Rated Researchers 2004-9 250

10 2015 122 128 Below target 6 Above target Possible

PI 7: Research outputs/academic against 2015 & DoE Targets, 2004-7

1,0 1,15 2015 0,42 0,48 below Target Unlikely

PI 10: Annual dropout Rates 2004-7 3% 2015 11% 14% Above target Unlikely PI 11: Aggregate Course Success Rate against 2010 Ministerial Target, 2004-7 3% 2015 1,1% 2,9% Above Target Possible PI 17: Academic & Academic Professional Staff-to-Admin Staff Ratio 2004-8 45:55 2015 68:32 Ratio too high Unlikely

PI 1: General Unisa Satisfaction Index (GUSI) 100% 2015 63,15% 36,85 below target Improbable PI 3: Academic Staff/Student Ratio, 2004-8 174 2015 140 34 Above Target Improbable PI 8:% Change in PG Headcounts and Graduations

25% 25% 2015 -3%

-30% 28% Below Target 33% Below Target Improbable

PI 12: Annual alumni contributions 2004-8 R3 M Annual R122 654 R2,878,000 below target Improbable

Performance on 84 Targetsin Unisa 2015 Strategic Plan

Overall Performance Targets on Track - % Complete

Performance on 84 Targetsin Unisa 2015 Strategic Plan• The 5-year review of progress towards the

achievement of the 2015 Strategic Plan targets showed that progress towards the original 2015 targets can be described as generally on track. Of the 84 targets:– 35 (41,7%) original and revised targets have been

reached– 6 (7,1%) original targets have not been reached– 22 (26,2%) original and revised targets are on track– 16 (19,0%) original and revised targets are not on track– 5 (6,0%) targets have shifted or are unclear

• In addition, of the 21 targets on track, 6 were between 75% - 99% complete, and a further 6 were above 50% complete

Performance Trends & Prognosis,17 2015 SP KPIs

Positive Trend

Sideways Trend

Negative Trend

Positive Trend

Sideways Trend

Negative Trend

Target Reached Target Not Reached

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Reached Probable/ Possible

Unlikely Improbable 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

• Of the 17 KPIs in the 2015 Plan:– 4 targets had been reached. Of these, 1

showed a positive trend, 2 showed a sideways trend and 1 a negative trend

– 13 targets had not yet been reached. Of these 3 showed a positive trend, 6 a sideways trend and 4 a negative trend

• The prognosis for achieving these targets was as follows:– 4 targets had been reached– 5 targets will probably/possibly be reached– It is unlikely that 4 of the targets will be

reached– It is improbable that 4 other targets will be

reached

Performance Trends & Prognosis,17 2015 SP KPIs

Summary of Projections, 2009-13

 Prov. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Average annual

increase: 2009-13

HC Enrolments (active)

257 071 269 731 282 987 297 028 311 814 3,5%

FTE Enrolments130 758 137 048 143 756 150 846 158 334 3,5%

FTE Degree Credits (course success) 72 103 77 040 82 121 87 600 93 481 0,4%Graduates 18 200 18 558 18 923 19 295 19 674 1,9%Permanent Staff: Headcount 4 410 4 321 4 477 4 602 4 910 4,3%Staff FTE(perm & temp) 5 045 4 933 5 094 5 204 5 488 3,8%Publication Units 620 680 740 780 820 7,5%Academic staff with Ds 520 531 570 587 625 5,9%Academic staff with Ms 377 385 413 425 453 5,9%Masters graduates 120 135 147 155 165 12,6%Doctoral graduates 73 80 86 87 90 6,1%Total Research Outputs 813 895 973 1 022 1 075 4,5%

Summary of Projections, 2009-13• Unisa recently submitted its provisional

Enrolment Statement to the DoHET in accordance with requirements

• This table summarises the provisional projections in key areas for the period 2009-13

The Challenge of Managing Unfunded Students

Subsidy Criteria

HEMIS 2005

HEMIS 2006

HEMIS 2007

HEMIS 2008

Projected HEMIS

2009

Projected HEMIS

2010

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Actual WFTE 83

557,8990

802,6695

886,99109

460,57114

933,60120

680,28

Adjusted WFTE 79

355,1982

898,0087

044,0092

074,3297

079,85102

066,30

Unfunded WFTE 4 202,69 7 904,66 8 842,9917

386,2517

853,7518

613,98Unfunded subsidy value (mill) R 32,4 R 65,0 R 79,9 R 173,1 R 186,1 R 202,7

The Challenge of Managing Unfunded Students• A key challenge facing Unisa is the number of

unfunded students which arise from the capping of teaching input units allocated to HEIs according to the long-term government funding framework

• It can be seen that by 2012/13, a subsidy loss of R202,7m will have accumulated

• Subsequent iterations of the planning process will have to address this problem