overview of kingdon model
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Overview of Kingdon Model. Introduction. Kingdon initially did an analysis of four policies at the federal level to identify a model or framework to explain and ultimately predict what will happen. His unstated conclusion is that you cannot predict. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Overview of Kingdon Model
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Introduction
Kingdon initially did an analysis of four policies at the federal level to identify a model or framework to explain and ultimately predict what will happen. His unstated conclusion is that you cannot predict.
He used four case studies that although not recent are
still relevant for analysis and noteworthy for how varied are the subjects:
HMO National Health Insurance under Carter Deregulation of transportation (aviation, trucking and
railroads) Waterway user changes
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Two Interacting Components Actors Processes or Streams
They are not independent entities but interact with each other
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Actors
Executive branch of government
Legislative branch of government
Interest Groups
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Executive Branch
There is visibility to many actions
They have Organizational cohesion Resources Access to the public
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Executive Branch: Cues
Repitition of the “on point” message To media outlets To legislature From a variety of executive branch
actors/employees
Look for repeated phrases
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Staff (part of executive branch) If you ever saw the TV program West Wing
that is a fairly accurate model for staff. Or in the US in 2009-10 think about reaction to the President’s point person: Raul Emmanuel
Staff role not always visible. Many administrations work to keep meetings and activities out of the public eye.
Staff involved in many things such as liaison to capitol hill and legislators
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Cabinet (part of executive branch)
Different degrees of power depending first on the cabinet office and then on the person.
Seldom last the full four year term. Influence can be tremendous – think
about the Secretary of Defense being very strong or the Secretary of Health and Human Services not being strong or influential.
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Civil Servants/BureaucratsDo not directly influence policy but
have three valuable characteristics:LongevityExpertiseRelationships with many sources such as scientists in the case of healthcare
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Iron Triangle
More subtle in terms of visibility but powerful
Operate effectively in conflict situations: Think policy discussions on oil drilling or health care reform
Who is in the Iron Triangle Bureaucrats Committee and committee chairman Interest groups
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Legislative Branch - Visible They look for consensus and reaction
of constituents Legal authority Publicity in many forms – think
“sound bites” Blended information from many
sources Friends and constituents Summary documents from their staffers Oral information and documents from
interest groups
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Legislative Committee Staffers Expertise (one staffer recently said
she had spent one year on just the healthcare bill)
Invisible except at committee hearing where sit behind the chairman
Hired by the committee chairman Offer information and alternatives to
a particular bill or topic being discussed
Senator or House representative cannot have expertise on every bill that comes up
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Committee Chairman
Chairman is a member of the party in power
Selection based on longevity
Some committees more powerful and sought after than others
Chairman can be a significant power broker in legislative decisions
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Interest Groups
They are everywhere and often effective
Visibility varies Tag team with others groups
depending on the issue or legislation leading to “strange bedfellows” at times: But it is all about influence
Methods vary: Negative blocking one method
Academics among this group with varying levels of influence depending on the issue
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Media
Includes: newsprint, TV and Internet sources
How much influence: some reports suggest limited
People tend to select media outlets that confirm their attitudes or opinions – not seeking new information
Can magnify issues Can communicate issues
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Other Interest Groups
One issue groups for example a particular disease such as autism
Professional experts across the political spectrum (examples only) Conservative: American Enterprise Institute,
American Family Association Liberal: Brookings Institute, Commonweal
Institute Centrist: Rand Corporations, Pew Research
Center
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Processes or Streams of ActivityAgenda Setting
Problem Recognition
Need to recognize there is a problem which is open to interpretation: see next slide
Multiple sources and forces
Medicine less visible but that has changed with healthcare reform on the front burner
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Problem Interpretation
Infant mortalityPoor prenatal careMultiple birthsAge of womenPoverty
ObesityPoor healthcare habitsFood resources such as schools and neighborhoods offer poor nutritional valueLack of exerciseParental oversight limitedLack of knowledge about healthcare and good eating habits
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Problem Interpretation
Complexity theory tells us that most problems are not simple
Complexity makes policy difficulty to identify and sell (e.g.the public) and change
Values and interests change
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Policy FormulationLegislation
Kingdon writes that “solutions wait for problems.”
Nursing wanted reimbursement – but the connection and legislation was “tagged on”.
Networks made up of a few to many groups may try to soften up an issue or to increase the pressure about problems that will occur if a particular bill is passed or not passed
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Survival Criteria
Tolerable cost Value acceptability Anticipated public agreement Technically feasible Reasonable chance for the elected
official to be receptive to the policy
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POLITICS
Electoral makeup Pressure groups Bargaining Persuasion Public mood Organization of political forces
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It is a Mystery
Well not quite a mystery – there may be more than one stream in operation to move a policy in a particular direction.
The key is their coming together . But often brief and not always predictable.
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A Window
Kingdon’s theory is that a window of opportunity suddenly and briefly occurs with a “joining of streams”
Not always predictable
Often random
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Unpredictable
A midterm election that changes the majority in the Senate by one seat
The death of an influential member such as Senator Kennedy
A major public event
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Citation
Adapted and added to from
Kingdon, J.W. (1995). Agendas, alternatives, and public policies. 2nd ed. NY: Harper Collins College publishers.